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Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread

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Replies: 556
By:
stewarts rise
When: 30 Mar 24 11:43
Good luck with selections Andrew, see you've entered your horse in Anoraks race Grin at Southwell over 1m, not the most obvious place to start, hope it runs well for you.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 30 Mar 24 12:21
Stewart

Thanks.

The grammar could have been improved in my post, but it was typed hastily Wink

see you've entered your horse in Anoraks race This went over my head ?

Salamanca Lad was entered at Wolverhampton last Thursday, but Dan and Claire decided on Southwell instead. He's also entered at Nottingham on April 3rd, but unlikely to run.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 30 Mar 24 12:41
Anoraks race-1m (1m13y) Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Handicap.
Name of one of his books Andrew.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 30 Mar 24 12:52
Thanks Stewart, got it, and it was early Laugh

Won over 6f last year, but we expect him to go over 10f at some stage.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 30 Mar 24 13:52
Your horses half brother (also bred from a sprinter) ran up to 10fs but probably better over 1m, but much better on Good/GF ground, that's why i'm surprised he's starting off at Southwell.
My quips can take a bit of getting.Grin
By:
stewarts rise
When: 30 Mar 24 17:06
Easy lay of the Derby winner there Andrew, never anywhere near.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 30 Mar 24 17:27
Stewart, thanks. I wish all lay selections ran like that, i think he finished last. Clearly talented, but is an enigma, got his own ideas about the game, is overrated and was never a 5/4f bet (i laid a few bets over 3). Mind you, he's the sort that could hose up next time out.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 30 Mar 24 17:35
Early doors yours is 12/1 Andrew.
By:
TommyWestofLanark
When: 30 Mar 24 19:44
Good evening Andrew. I also had Mr MacKay as a good bet.Obviously ran disapointingly not giving up on him though. May need better ground. I didn't back Auguste Rodin but feel that he will do better later on. As you say an enigma but I'll not give up on him. Still early days. Good luck with SL.
By:
CagliariG
When: 30 Mar 24 19:51
RAF Brigadoon, Coastal Command?
By:
mrcombustible
When: 30 Mar 24 23:03
From Flatstats
Horse having first run for Kubler having come from another trainer
RSB AW Stat[nl][/nl]1 wins, 19 runs, 5.3% strike rate, 0.69 A/E, 5.3% profit, 1.4 Exp, 0.1 Archie
By:
CagliariG
When: 30 Mar 24 23:17
SACs from Clothing Stores, 11+ years in St Eval transferred to St Mawgan but same AMQ, Coastal Command, RAF Brigadoon...stop.....strike command..arctic patrol RN...........no penguins sighted.......... stop.......antarctic.........no polar bears yet.red eye flights not Nederlands yet.

Servicepeoplesickoflyingknobs.............stop...........no saintevalsince1959nocoastalcommand69... finishcomcenwattisham4rgt!!
By:
flukes
When: 31 Mar 24 09:23
II see that Salamanca Lad is Hugh Taylor's sole selection today Laugh Good luck today Andrew!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 31 Mar 24 09:30
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the 'coherent' posts (my expertise is aerospace, not enigma de-coding Laugh).

Tommy there's no denying Auguste Rodin is decent, you don't win 5 Group 1's including a couple of Derbys and an Irish Champion by not being as such, but is he is good as what the racing media suggests. We're used to AOB accolades and i totally understand he has a world class breeding operation to promote, although i'm a little surprised at Ryan stating 'one of the best i've ridden' (albeit in what context). It could be the horse is a 'thinker' and now and again simply decides he doesn't want to race. I was very surprised at the SP 5/4f. I guess his next run is at the Curragh with a drop in trip, and as suggested yesterday he could hose up, but backers need an act of faith. Good luck.

A couple of decent cards in Ireland and to a lesser extent, Plumpton this afternoon, but surely race of the day is on the AW at Southwell Wink.

Fairyhouse features a rematch of Blood Destiny and Spillers Tower in the grade 1 WillowWarm Gold Cup (4.55)(currently 1-1 in the H2H. I was surprised to see such a disparity in the betting between the pair, even though the latter probably warrants being favourite over the 20f trip based on his win at Punchestown. Blood Destiny was keen that day, made the running and was a sitting target for Spillers Tower at the final fence, giving away on the run-in to be beaten 2L. A different story at Navan when the finishing order was reversed quite comprehensively LTO, albeit over a shorter trip that favoured BD. Travelled well throughout the race and looked more relaxed held up off the pace. Has course experience, i don't think the trip will be an issue, and for me he's simply the better horse. A general 2/1 with the books, i think he wins.

On to the race i've been waiting for since October last year, my first as an owner with a 10% share in Salamanca Lad who runs at Southwell (3.50) this afternoon. A few guys in my WhatsApp group i often go racing with (including a couple of posters on here) joined an existing syndicate, Fellowship Racing, several of whom we knew, and the horse was purchased at the Tattersall HIT sales. Trained by Dan and Claire Kübler in Lambourn who won the Cambridgeshire with Astro King last year. We teamed up with their Diskovery Syndicate, although the horse will run in Fellowship colours.

If anyone wants to go into racing ownership, i can certainly recommend the stable, the feedback we receive on a regular basis is superb, photo's, videos, performance and health analyses, speed and stride length data from the gallops etc.

Salamanca Lad won over 6f at Thirsk last year, but we bought him to run over further, perhaps even 10f in time. Of course it's ownership at a low level and none of us are in it to make money (we will probably lose) it's simply a bit of fun with a decent bunch of guys. As to his chances this afternoon, we are not expecting too much and his current odds of 10/1 reflect this. Dan has sent us a detailed report on the race and opposition, but out of respect for others, i can't post it here, although if anyone wants the Timeform card in pdf format for Southwell i can send it via email (post address in a PM).

Another box to be ticked, and i owned Greyhounds at Slough and Reading back in time before leaving GB in June 1984. The thrill when Claremont Point my first winner, in an Egg and Spoon mid-grade race isn't forgotten and to say i'm excited about this afternoon is an understatement, but he doesn't have to win either. Unfortunately i can't be on course with the others as i'm in Linköping for the Easter break, my usual once every 4-6 weeks return home, but there will be other occasions.

I also have another share (5%) in Agouti Bear, an unraced 2 year old filly trained by Danny Murphy in Ireland, albeit in my daughters name (part of Kildare Racing syndicate) i just pay the bills. More on the filly in time as she may not be running in April.

Good luck and have a nice Easter Sunday all.
By:
ashleigh
When: 31 Mar 24 09:37
Andrew, good luck with Salamanca lad today.
By:
jerseyboy
When: 31 Mar 24 10:18
be lucky AinS..
By:
stewarts rise
When: 31 Mar 24 11:08
Amazing isn't it, Andrew mentions he has a share in a horse on this thread, says they aren't expecting much 1st time out for trainer with poor record with horses from another stable 1st time up for him.
  Hugh Taylor reads it on here and puts it up as his sole tip of the day and gets backed into 6/1 with books, daft really, hope you had your bet on early Andrew before hugh put his tip up.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 31 Mar 24 11:24
Thanks Guys,

A few of us are on @ 12/1, a couple of the team have backed on my behalf as i don't have GB High St accounts. I will back the place on here later.

12/1 was a rick in my eyes. A few days ago, we had a fun WA discussion what we feel the SP will be and my thought was 11/2. He knows how to win and it was over an inadequate trip, hence the step up. First time cheekpieces will settle him, but it's an open handicap and without any involvement in SL, i wouldn't even study the field.

We are hopeful, rather than confident.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 31 Mar 24 11:41
Good luck Andrew, I agree about the feeling of your 1st time winner with Greyhounds, I have had a few in the past, sadly I cant seem to summon up the enthusiasm for the Dogs these days, must be an age thing ( first oap payment next month ). ShockedLaugh
By:
bob dylan
When: 31 Mar 24 11:45
always back the ones that walk like barbara windsor in her prime
By:
stewarts rise
When: 31 Mar 24 11:47
Are you Lay lady Laying it Bob?Grin
By:
Hayden
When: 31 Mar 24 11:48
Same here GC , loved the buzz as a Greyhound owner and some absolutely memorable nights along the journey    Happy
By:
Hayden
When: 31 Mar 24 11:51
Yes the times they are a changing Bob for sure   Grin
By:
the dealer
When: 31 Mar 24 11:54
it's a roller coaster ride of ups and downs. Best of luck today, I hope he does you proud and back home safe and sound.
Our season starts at catterick on Wednesday, can't wait.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 31 Mar 24 12:04
Yes the times they are a changing Bob for sure 


   My first oap payment next Month, I feel like Knocking on Heavens Door.!
By:
stewarts rise
When: 31 Mar 24 12:14
Time goes quicker the older you get GC, i retired 5 years ago, seems like yesterday.
By:
Brian
When: 31 Mar 24 13:11
Good luck with Salamanca Andrew.
By:
Early Morning Riser
When: 31 Mar 24 15:59
Good luck Andrew and friends.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 31 Mar 24 16:03
Looks a 7 furlong HOSS
Grin
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 31 Mar 24 19:12
Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the posts and 'good luck'.

No Champagne celebration for Salamanca Lad (not my drink anyway) but a decent run nevertheless. Got a good break and led from the stalls, but David let Desert Raider give him a tow into the race where he was always prominent in 2nd place. At the bend a few behind were off the bridle and i thought we had a squeak, even more so when he hit the front briefly over a furlong out, but lack of a run told and he finished a close 4th, beaten 1.5L. He was conceding 9lb to the winner and the front two had benefit of a run(s) in March. He will come on for this and we were happy with the run, although from a betting perspective, 3rd would have covered my win bet.

Imsoluckylucky

Prior to the HIT sales last October, we had a list of horses we were interested in; most of them considered suitable for a step up in trip with a budget of 20k. Salamanca Lad won over 6f on soft as a 2 year old, but isn't a sprinter and did well to win. His cadence, stride length and gallop reports all indicate he could improve when stepped up to 8f-10f, this is borne out by the trainer and David Egan in the post race interview this afternoon. He's entered at Nottingham over an extended 8f on Wednesday, but i doubt he will run.

Glasgow/Stewart

I lost interest in Greyhound racing when i left GB in 1984, the same year White City, my favourite track closed. I was a regular there (and Wembley) and loved the game, but if you asked me to name any Derby winner this century, i doubt i could.

As for OAP payments, i'm not a Spring Chicken myself, but i have no plans to retire, to be honest i would find it a struggle, not financially, but from a activity perspective. I'm not the type to watch Roses grow in the garden, i don't have hobbies to speak of, and more importantly i love my work. It's taken me around the world, not only in Europe and given me a lot of wonderful experiences. At the moment i have 3 clients in Germany, DLR and Deutsche Aircraft (the latter since last August) both situated on the Air-Tech Campus west of München and i share my workload between them. I also have an Airbus P2F contract, but that is only advisory and takes up about 6 hours in MD Teams calls per month and the occasional typed documents.

I fully expect to remain in Germany this year, but when i do eventually finish here i will return to Linköping Sweden and be happy to travel somewhere else, or even return to Saab Aerospace if that was an option. Thankfully, i'm in good health, so why not.

Tom

Good luck with Slainte Mhath (great name) on Wednesday, hope she runs well for you.

Have a nice Sunday evening all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 01 Apr 24 11:55
Good afternoon Guys,

A reasonable mixture of cards this afternoon with the first of the seasons Grand Nationals at Fairyhouse supporting a trio of Grade 2's. Across the channel at Saint Cloud there is a couple of flat Group 3's and Joseph O'Brien fields the likely favourite in one of them.

The Fairyhouse card appears to be a WPM benefit day, as if he needs it and the Irish GN is not my type of betting race, so if i do play, any bets will be restricted to a couple of Tenners at the most. I wouldn't want to be lumping on the likely favourite Nick Rockett, but Yeah Man is a tentative EW selection. Since making his chase debut in March 2023, he's gone up 26 lb in the ratings and could still be improving. Trip and going will not be an issue. Odds of 10.5 for the win and 3.9 for 3/TBP

Over at Saint Cloud in the G3 Prix Edmond Blanc (4.00) over 8f there is a small, but closely matched field and i like Godolphin's Tribalist. His record at the course reads 3-1-1-2-1-1-3-1 with 4 wins over the trip, including this race in 2023 (form is franked). Runs well after a break 2-1-1-3 and revels in soft/heavy. I think he will make all and win, although the 2023 French 2000 guineas winner will not be a push-over and has the advantage of a run, but Mikael Barzalona will know all about this one as he was the jockey in 7 of his 10 runs. Currently 11/10 with the books.

Closer to home, i think the likely favourite Hilltown is a lay at Plumpton (3.35). Has been slipping down the ratings and did finish runner-up over CD LTO, but he was receiving 23lb, 3 fences were omitted and it was on soft that clearly suits. Different going today and it looks a tricky handicap. Currently trading around 3.30 for the lay, but liquidity is poor.

Good luck and have a nice Easter Monday with loved ones (or even unloved ones).
By:
stewarts rise
When: 01 Apr 24 12:04
Horse ran pretty well yesterday Andrew, should come on for that. In the Irish GN, i've had a couple of guesses on lightweight We'llhavewan for Mullins and Any Second Now, can only be hopeful in this race.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 01 Apr 24 12:18
Stewart

Thank you. I guess most new owners are a little apprehensive just before the first run, new stable etc, but we were happy enough with 4th place and not beaten far. 3rd would have been a bonus with the EW bets, but none of us lumped on anyway, so no harm done. We've been invited to a Kübler stable 'Greenham Day' Brunch on the 20th prior to racing at Newbury, hopefully i can go over, but April is a busy month of travelling. I will definitely be at Newmarket for 2000 Guineas day, and there's a slim chance of Punchestown festival preceding this as Wednesday May 1st is a bank holiday, so i plan to take a 5 day break.

Good luck with your bets.
By:
the dealer
When: 01 Apr 24 13:06
A very good first run and plenty to look forward to in the coming months.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 02 Apr 24 16:55
Lay Post

Wolverhampton 5.30 - Rust E Boy

A 3 year-old Inns Of Court gelding trained by David Evans in Monmouthshire.

First foal from the dam.

A 14 race maiden over trips between 5f and 8.5f, best finishing positions over 6f. Regressed in the ratings from 66 (August 2023) down to a current 48, the same mark he has run off in 3 previous runs. Never ran off a higher mark than his previous run.

In 5 runs at Wolverhampton, 3 of them were from stall 1 and another from 2, but couldn't take advantage of the low draw. In stall 6 this evening.

Stepping up in trip to 8.5f, but breeding doesn't scream out a mile +

A tight looking handicap, take out the lowest RPR and there is only 5lb in the field.

Has been backed, but stamina has to be proven and 6/4 is short enough.

Lay @ 2.72

Good luck all
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 02 Apr 24 17:35
Good call Andrew
Well done
By:
PHS
When: 02 Apr 24 18:25
Missed it. WD Andrew.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 03 Apr 24 06:06
Good morning Guys,

Lucky/PHS

Thank you.

The lay selection Rust E Boy was well backed at 7/4f (5's in the morning) and although racing prominently from the off didn't appear to stay the trip.

2024 Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 3/5
Running Form LLWWW
Daily Profit +£50
Running P/L -£73


Still playing catch-up after a losing start, but 3 in a row has reduced the deficit.

Tom

It looks a tricky card at Catterick, but have a nice afternoon and good luck with Slainte Mhath.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
By:
the dealer
When: 03 Apr 24 08:21
Cheers Andrew, pleasantly surprised its on, although come five, I would imagine the ground will be pretty desperate. She is fit and well but undoubtedly will come on for the run. The track is a bit of an unknown and she has the bend to cope with but her home work suggests she has improved again, until they do it on the track though, you can never be sure. I've had a few quid on each way but certainly haven't gone mad.
Fingers crossed for a good run and home safe and sound
By:
Brian
When: 03 Apr 24 08:43
Good luck Dealer. Day off for me.
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