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Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
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Good afternoon Trusty/All,
Thanks. Correct, Lloret Del Mar is Costa Brava's playground, but i knew this when booking and a Spanish work colleague basically confirmed this, although she said this time of the year it will not be manic and is actually a pleasant time to go.It wasn't my original choice of destination, i was trying to get to Sevilla as i spent 2 years there in the mid 80's and haven't been back since, i loved it there. Flights back to München were much easier from Barcelona. It's not a big deal, i will be enjoying reasonable weather for 6 days (it was 4c when i left München on Friday) and watching ITV during the Cheltenham afternoons, a nice relaxing break from the office. We will probably go into the city at the weekend, although i've been before. A pity we didn't arrive yesterday, Barca were playing at home. I've backed the couple i mentioned last night, Built By Ballymore and Solness, but only small EW. My primary bet in Ballyburn in the opener (backed yesterday) but i won't be alone in picking this one. Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all. More later. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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The books in big trouble if WPM cuts loose again today.
Ballyburn in the opener will be a watershed moment for the week. | ||||||||
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Bad news
Im on it  | ||||||||
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Lay Post
Cheltenham 1.30 - Facile Vega A 7 year old Walk In The Park gelding trained by Willie Mullins. A rare lay from this stable and ridden by one of the best jockeys around, but i did just this with the lay in the Supreme last year and feel it will be a case of deja vu this afternoon. His Cheltenham record is good 1-2, but once in a bumper, the other over hurdles and both runs were over the old course and he steps up in trip to 20f. The latter may not be a significant issue, but his jumping as a chaser is still novicey and the fences here are stiff. It's a decent field with several unexposed and progressive novice chasers, a couple of them with course fence experience, in particular Ginny's Destiny who has won his previous 3. A very open race in my opinion, but if a gun was put to my head, i would go for Grey Dawning. Lay @ 3.30 Good luck all. | ||||||||
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Punchestown/ISLL
Ballyburn so impressive, he could even run in a Champion Hurdle, although i guess connections will keep him at 20f this season. | ||||||||
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Good morning guys,
I often put an EW up at the festivals, although they win as regularly as moon landings, the best so far this week was Asian Master (4th @ 16/1, beaten a neck for 3rd). This afternoon, i've plumped for the Irish trained Gaoth Ghuil who has been running consistently well in handicaps recently with form figures of 2-2-1-2; the 24f trip looks ideal. In the past year she's improved from a mark of 109 to her current 136 although her apprentice jockey claims 5 lb. 24f trip will suit as will the rain soaked ground. These typical handicaps are minefields, but at 9.6 for the win and 2.84 for 4/TBP she could warrant a small stake. Good luck all and have a nice Thursday. | ||||||||
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Good evening Guys,
Facile Vega, the 5/2JF lay post selection finished 7th of 9 that completed the course, rarely looking like getting involved and reinforcing my opinion he's not a chaser. I suspect he will go back hurdling. 2024 Lay P/L Status
Unfortunately i will be playing catch-up for a few selections, but hopefully another one tomorrow. Have a nice evening all. | ||||||||
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WD Andrew
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Good morning Guys,
Thanks PHS. Final day of Cheltenham and my only AP bet for the festival runs in the opener and has been very well backed in the past few days, although some of the reduction will be due to Sir Gino's non-participation of course. The Triumph Hurdle has been a profitable race for this thread (and my wallet) with Vauban (16/1) and Lossiemouth (6/1) and today i'm going for the hat-trick with Bunting. I actually backed him @ 12/1 before he had jumped a hurdle (as Vauban) after going through some of the potential runners and watching VR's late last year. Made his debut in a 11f maiden race at Fontainebleau in March 2023. Unfancied at 38/1, slowly away, raced from the rear, but made progress in the final 3f and although taking time to find his stride, once the penny dropped, the further he went, the better he looked and he won by an easy 7L. The runner-up has run well since to be 2nd a couple of times and the 3rd is group class, albeit not a winner in it. Tony Bloom was obviously impressed and bought him in a private deal. Made his hurdling debut in an egg and spoon race at Limerick (2/5f) and won basically as he liked after travelling strongly. I backed him at the DRF (AP and on the day) he was one of several WPM entries, albeit ignored by the upper echelon stable jockeys. He didn't hurdle well, but stayed on well to be 4th and was only beaten 2.25L by the winner, the same 3 stablemates re-oppose today. The furlong extra distance is in his favour, an envisaged decent pace is a positive and he has a turn of foot. I've backed him @ 23, 25 and 26 on here in recent weeks (has been matched @ 38) and again a few days ago @ 22 although all stakes are small, but the take out is decent of course. If he finishes in the first 3, my overall stake is covered with small profit, but if he wins, most of the Costa Brava will hear me shouting  . I also have him in the competition run by Foyleswar.Has been well backed this week and interestingly enough, in all the pre-Cheltenham previews, not one of the Mullins team mentioned him, yet Ruby tips him in the SL today. More later. Good luck and have a nice Friday all. | ||||||||
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Been heavily backed today Andrew which must be a good sign when you are already on at big prices. Mullins with top 4 in the market so Ruby's tip is noteworthy.
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Brian
Thanks, considering my last bet on Bunting of the several i have was @ 22.2 on Sunday morning, i've certainly got decent odds, he was 7.0 last time i looked. Even after the DRF race i mentioned to the guys i was with, he ran well considering his inexperience. Will improve and if he jumps better, who knows. Sean O'Keeffe back on today (was on at Limerick). Fingers crossed | ||||||||
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Good Luck ANDREW
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So much for Ruby's tip
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Exactly Brian ................. and my form reading
Never really showed, heavy going or just not good enough. I got odds of 26 about a 11/2 and could have traded, but this was never in the planning. | ||||||||
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Lay Post
Wolverhampton 7.00 - Sullivan Bay A 4 year old Australia gelding trained by Henrietta Knight in Oxfordshire. First run for the stable after being transferred from Gary Brown. Lightly raced on the flat and a sole run over hurdles where he was completely outclassed behind Sir Gino. His previous 2 runs showed a little promise, winning one and finishing 3rd LTO (11/8f) but the former was a poor field and his overall form is ordinary at best. All runners from both races to have run have been beaten since. First time on a Tapeta surface. Doesn't appear to be a lot of pace in the field and 14f may not be ideal. A better field than his previous couple of races and it looks a tricky handicap, only one can be discounted and any of the other 4 could win Lay @ 3.30 Good luck all. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW G/L
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Thank you ANDREW
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WD Andrew
 Drifted out and my 3.45 didn't match. | ||||||||
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Thanks Lampus/PHS
Drifted from 9/4 to 16/5 on course and although raced prominently after being slowly away, the pace was not that strong and he was completely outpaced on the run-in and finished last of 6. Henrietta doesn't have many runners on the flat and i suspect this one was bought with hurdling in mind. 2024 Lay P/L Status
Still playing catch-up after a poor start, but hopefully another one tomorrow and Monday whilst still on vacation. Have a nice evening all. | ||||||||
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Hens well bred bumper horse finished tailed off at Kempton today. Her horses appear to be place lays
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MrC, she has a runner at Huntingdon tomorrow, Motazzen, an ex-George Baker inmate, albeit hurdles of course.
Changing topic, our syndicate horse Salamanca Lad could be running at Wolverhampton (8.5f) next Saturday (4.05). If not, it could be Nottingham (8f 75y) on April 3rd, that looks a decent card. We received a WhatsApp message from Dan (Kübler) this afternoon. | ||||||||
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Good morning Guys,
Typical Sunday afternoon cards in GB/Ireland and there wasn't anything that jumped off the page, backing or laying, so i doubt i will play anything here. I was hoping to find a lay post selection, but the only one i got close to at 5/2 or under was Imperial Alex in the 1.50 Chepstow, a case of 'forever the best man, but never the groom' (2-2-2-2 previous 4 runs) with this one, although to be fair he's actually going up in the ratings. Stays on, but is a bit one paced and i think he could get placed again, albeit a risky lay nevertheless. Over at Auteuil there are a couple of Grade 3 races, the better of the two being the Prix Troytown chase over 4,400 metres (almost 22f). The one i like is not fancied in the market (best price 6/1 with 365) but i think has a decent EW chance, Gallipoli, ridden by our very own James Reveley, currently 2nd in the championship table. Ran well on 2024 debut over CD, making the running and going clear until getting picked up on the run-in. A few sketchy jumps didn't help his cause (nearly slipped up at the open ditch) but he stayed on well when challenged and was only beaten 0.75L. Tends to race prominently, led for much of the way when he won over CD 3 runs ago and it looked like the 4,700 metre trip (23.4f) was a step too far when he finished 3rd in his penultimate race. If he goes off in front again, he could be difficult to catch. It's pointless looking at BF odds until much closer to the race, liquidity is poor early doors, even for graded races. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. Our last full day in Spain before returning to München tomorrow evening, so we are off to Girona for the day. | ||||||||
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Thanks Andrew - 13/2 PP and been backed elsewhere.
Thought I remembered the name from somewhere but that was an IRE bred trained by Fahey a few years back. | ||||||||
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I was hoping to find a lay post selection, but the only one i got close to at 5/2 or under was Imperial Alex in the 1.50 Chepstow, a case of 'forever the best man, but never the groom' (2-2-2-2 previous 4 runs) with this one, although to be fair he's actually going up in the ratings. Stays on, but is a bit one paced and i think he could get placed again, albeit a risky lay nevertheless.
Well swerved | ||||||||
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well swerved? was 13/8.
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Bad luck with Gallipoli, out battled.
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Good evening Guys,
Not really 'well swerved', it was simply a selection that was closest to odds of 5/2 that i thought could be laid (albeit risky) but as stated it was doubtful i would play anything in GB/Ireland. Mind you, i still got it wrong I backed the French horse Gallipoli, but win only. Raced prominently as expected and at the 800 metre mark, he and the eventual winner pulled clear of the field and he looked to be going well. A couple of sketchy jumps, including the water that seems to faze him (did the same LTO) and the 2nd last when in the lead that slowed his momentum, but it didn't really change the result. He was still in the lead between the final couple of fences, but he was simply beaten by a better horse on the day. I expected him to be ridden a little more aggressively, as LTO with Baptiste Le Clerc was on board, he looked good going off in front and almost stole the race. I will keep an eye on his entries. My last full day in Spain, but a nice one in Girona (only 45 mins on the coach). Back to München tomorrow night. Good luck and have a nice evening all. | ||||||||
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missing you
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Good afternoon Guys,
PHS Back from my chill-out in London/Lloret De Mar (arrived back in München late Monday evening) after a good Cheltenham festival week, but more on this tomorrow. In the office for a few hours and keeping an eye on ITV racing, albeit no bets yet, not that have run anyway, but a short post on the race that i have a small EW on. First Heritage race of the flat season, The Lincoln and i think the Irish will win it, albeit not with the favourite Chazzesmee, but the lightly raced Blues Emperor who runs well in these typical decent handicaps. He actually beat the favourite last year, although both have improved in the ratings since. Runs well fresh, a draw in 10 is a bonus as low numbers seem to be favoured this afternoon. The going may be a little softer than ideal, but he did finish 3rd on soft/heavy back in time. Currently odds of 14.5 and 3.45 for 4/TBP. My syndicate horse Salamanca Lad was entered in the 16.05 at Wolverhampton this afternoon, but not declared and is now probably going to Southwell on Easter Sunday (16.25) over 8f. Unfortunately i will not be able to go over to watch him as i'm in Sweden then, but there will be other occasions. The Küblers have an open day/brunch on April 20th, so i may get over for that, but it's a busy month for me. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. | ||||||||
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Good evening Guys,
No lay selection this evening, with exception of the finale, no favourite under 5/2. Very few bets recently, but i will be playing one in the next at Newcastle (18.30) Crypto Quest, reasonably consistent albeit within a range of 60-72 on ratings and probably not going to improve much after 21 runs. Finished 2023 with a win and may have needed the race on 2024 debut when a well beaten 7th of 8 (crowded at the start). Ran well when just getting touched off by a nose over 6f on the course LTO, staying on strongly. Up in trip to 7f (never gone this far) and his style of running suggests it may not be a problem. Currently 5.50 for the win, but over evens for 3/TBP to cover the stake. Good luck and have a nice evening all. | ||||||||
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No fav's under 5/2 apart from the first 5 races and the last!!! lol
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since i arrived home numpty
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Apologies for the crystal ball being misty!!
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I imagine you and The Management received a black eye or two at school Cagliari jumping from thread to thread digging away……
People put up opinions big deal…..ffs You tend to squawk at being a good player…..but no proof….. | ||||||||
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Don't ever lump me in with the GlenTobyMug.
Tobymug is just bitterly obsessed with Andrew. I on the other hand, have the odd pop at some of the most frequent and boring time-wasters, morons, liars and attention seekers. I enjoy AIS threads (amongst others) but sometimes struggle to find what I am looking to read, due to the massive volume of constant detritus spewed out by a handful of people like you! Now, If you have something to say to me, message me or use your own "thread". It's not mandatory for you to pollute every other poster's threads with your boring drivel. | ||||||||
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Happysandwich springs to mind…..
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Anyway good luck to the OP….
No harm in looking at someone’s thread to check out an opinion…..just noticed Cagliari having a dig….. | ||||||||
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Morning
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Good morning Guys from a bright and sunny Stockholm.
Arrived yesterday, stayed over and will travel down to my 'adopted' home in Linköping after lunch. Many thanks for the posts (exception of the forum numpty). My previous selection, Crypto Quest (Monday) was disappointing, backed down to 4/1, but swerved at the start and didn't appear to stay the step up in trip to 7f. Too early to use this as an excuse, but visually, it appeared to be and it wouldn't surprise me if he reverted to sprinting. The weather has reduced the racing program today, but still some interesting cards without going overboard. One i'm laying is the 2023 Epson Derby winner, AOB trained Auguste Rodin who urns in the Sheema Classic (Meydan 4.00). I've never really been a fan although i did back him in the Irish equivalent thereafter, but considering his record is 7 wins from 10 perhaps i should give him more credit. Won well at the Breeders meeting in November, but an inspired ride from RM on the inside played a major part. It's a decent field and any 3 of Japanese runners could win (they won the race in 2022 and 2023). This is probably his hardest task to date and current odds of 3.30 are short enough. I may even put this one up as a lay post selection. I thought Junko was a outsider worth a small stake for a place, i was all over him when he won the Grosser Preis von Bayern at München in November and surprised he wasn't favourite that day (i put him up here). I think he's better than his rating indicates and he may even go off in front. At Haydock (2.05) Mr Mackay could be an EW bet off his low weight (1 lb out of the handicap) and on the envisaged soft going if he can brush up his hurdling. The favourite Brentford Hope will do well to give him 27 lb. Currently odds of 10 on here. My syndicate horse Salamanca Lad is a definite runner at Southwell (3.50) tomorrow afternoon, but more on this later. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |