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Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
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Thank you ANDREW
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Good evening Guys,
The rub of the Green certainly wasn't with me this afternoon with the lay of Southern Sam (13/8F). Only a small field of 4, but one fell at the 2nd fence, hindering another, the well backed 2nd favourite (7/4) who unseated leaving layers with a single rival, Innisfree Lad running for them. The two runners basically ran together for much of the race, but after 4 fences out Innisfree was going much the better and went 3L clear with jockey on the favourite having to work. At the 3rd last, the leader made a hash of it and the jockey did well to stay on board, but he still had a lead and was looking good (1.07 IR). Unfortunately he didn't jump the 2nd last well either, but retained a 2L length lead. Over the last fence i thought he would still win, but fair play to the young jockey on the favourite who managed to get a run out of him and get up close home. The errors from 3 rivals didn't help layers, but that's racing and we move on. Have a nice evening all. 2024 Lay P/L Status
Not a good start to the year.  | ||||||||
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Morning all
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Afternoon PHS/All,
It is here at least  I'm in the office for a few hours, although not exactly being overly productive (watching the Opening Show earlier) more a case of preparation and 'loose-ends' as i start my 10 day vacation end of next week. Typical pre-Cheltenham cards today, and i wasn't enamoured with the Newbury card, albeit to be expected really. Nicky Henderson is in the news on a daily basis at the moment, sadly for the wrong reasons (more on this tomorrow) and although he has 8 runners later, 2 of them short, i would not want to be backing any of them. I feel Jango Baie is layable in the Grade 2 novices at Kelso (2.17) it looks a half-decent field and i feel he needs a bit further. My only bet today so far is Blood Destiny (Navan 3.48) who can reverse form with Spilliane's Tower (he was a bit keen) 3 lb better off and the drop in trip a bonus. I actually think we will see a different horse today and he will win comfortable enough, although odds-on is not for everyone. I was surprised WPM isn't sending him to Cheltenham, although i guess it's not a given. Good luck and have a nice afternoon all. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
G/L | ||||||||
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Thanks Andrew.
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Good luck and have a nice afternoon all.
You too Andrew. | ||||||||
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Spot on today Andrew.
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WD Andrew.
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Well done Andrew.
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Nice picking on a Saturday
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Good afternoon Guys,
Many thanks for the posts. A profitable afternoon with only 2 selections, the lay of Jango Baie (9/4f) and back of Blood Destiny (8/11f). Only a small stake on the lay, but i did fancy the Irish runner quite strongly to reverse form with Spillane's Tower and backed him with a few bob at 1.68 and 1.71. Always prominent, travelled well and once he challenged for the lead after the 3rd last and was going easily, there only looked to be one winner. Pulled away on the run-in with PT glancing over his shoulder, winning well by over 6L. The drop in trip to 16f wouldn't have suited Spillane's Tower as much as the favourite, but the latter was 20 lb better over hurdles than his rival and i think he's simply a better horse (keen in his penultimate race) and will beat the runner-up again in the 20f WillowWarm Gold Cup at Fairyhouse over the Easter weekend. He will win again this season. Changing topic, Nicky Henderson is often the centre of racing media attention, this is to be expected being such a high-profile trainer and the past few days are no exception with the negative news surrounding Constitution Hill. Nicky receives a lot of flak from posters and punters, some of it valid, but much of it unwarranted, and to be fair he's been as open with the public/media as he can be with respect to running at Cheltenham. Like most racing fans, i would i would like to see him run more often (CH, not Nicky ) but his philosophy of the 'horse comes first' is correct and if Nicky feels he will not recover in time, then so be it. It will be unfortunate, winning a 4th Champion hurdle as a 10 year old for racing eminence will be difficult, the previous horse to do this was the superb Sea Pidgeon back in 1980. I'm reasonably confident if he does run, he's not only fit enough to run, but fit enough to win.On to this afternoon, i rarely lay runners from the WPM stable, but Cash Back (Leopardstown 2.50) is one i will be later. Now a 12 year old, and 16f around a speed track is not going to bring out the best in him, in fact the last time he won over such a trip was in 2020. Currently trading at 2.46 to lay. At Huntingdon (3.40) another i thought could be layed is Lounge Lizard another runner dropping in trip. Ran well in a half-decent handicap at Cheltenham finishing 2nd LTO, albeit off a light weight and was receiving 20 lb and 18 lb from the winner and 3rd. Prone to jumping errors and has hung to the left on occasion. Both wins were on sharp tracks over 21f and 25f. Currently 3.45 to lay. Feedback from Dan and Claire Kübler about Salamanca Lad is promising and he may have his first run for the syndicate later this month or first week in April. I'm hoping it's a weekend, but if it's Wolverhampton in mid-week, it's doubtful i would come over. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. | ||||||||
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Cash Back on your first tip for sure
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Well done Andrew, with good reasoning.
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Thanks Andrew I followed you in after reading your post.
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"With good reasoning". Ehhh?? Reasoning utterly wrong and flawed. Race was over nearly 18 and a half furlongs not 16. Leopardstown "a speed track". Thats a good one. Absolutely the opposite. And it's Sea PIGEON. Otherwise proceed...
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St Ledger!!
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second again 03 Mar 24 15:13
Thanks Andrew I followed you in after reading your post no menchun of laying lounge lizard? | ||||||||
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Good evening Guys,
Thank you for the posts. I thought it was going to be another 2/2 afternoon when my 2nd lay selection, Lounge Lizard (5/2f) at Huntingdon was headed 2 fences out and looked beaten (100 IR on BF) but to his credit stayed on well to regain the lead close home and win by a neck. Over in Ireland, the well backed Cash Back (6/5f) raced prominently early on, but couldn't go with the pace after the 3rd last hurdle and approaching the next was being ridden without response, PT basically letting him coast home, although he was PU before the last. Racing in the forthcoming week is typical of the pre-Cheltenham festival, nothing to really get enamoured about, although the Sandown card on Saturday is decent. If i was arriving in GB Friday evening and staying at Premier Inn T4 i would have considered going there, just as i did when Jonbon won in December (Uber is not expensive) but on this occasion i'm flying into Gatwick on the morning. Never mind, from a betting perspective i'm only really interested in Cheltenham Tuesday before flying out Wednesday morning, although i will leave a few bets there for remaining days. Have a nice evening all. Slickster I stand corrected and hold my hands up, i thought the race was 16f, but irrespective of this, i would still have made the same lay, the crux of the reasoning was dropping in trip significantly. In his previous run he won over 24f on an undulating course in heavy going. In his penultimate run, he was runner-up over 23f. He's 12 years old, regressing in the ratings, never once running off a higher mark than his previous race in his last 7 runs. Leopardstown is flat, easy bends with a short run-in; i felt this wasn't a winnable race for him and 6/5 was far too short. Sometimes i'm right, sometimes i'm wrong, the game is all about opinion and my livelihood and contented life-style isn't impacted by it either way anyway. Good luck. | ||||||||
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Going to Lloret aka Little Benidorm seems like you failed to do due diligence like the distance of todays race and Pigeon with a D!!
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Good evening Guys,
A busy working week, but a relatively easy day tomorrow (no meetings) then 10 carefree vacation days not doing much of anything and a bonus with Cheltenham festival to look forward to, albeit sadly without my favourite NH horse, Constitution Hill. From a betting perspective, at least in my case, it will not make a lot of difference anyway, the Champion Hurdle was basically a match before his health issues and State Man will actually be better odds than CH would have been. The only AP bet i have is in the Triumph Hurdle (not the fav) but more on this next week. Regular readers are aware i bought a 5% share (Kildare Racing syndicate) in an unraced Kodi Bear filly last year as a present for my daughter. A 2 year old, and her name is now registered with HRI, although the choice could have been better (Agouti Bear). She will not be running in March, but hopefully Danny finds a nice little sprint for her in the Spring. https://www.hri-ras.ie/getmedia/5199923e-a13f-432c-939f-a88ecbe38d66/240222-22nd-February-Calendar-Supplement.pdf (page 2). My other one, Salamanca Lad will hopefully run later this month, or early April. On to Newcastle this evening, i feel the favourite in the lucky last (20.30) Ana Emaraaty is short enough in the betting @ 2.84. A 14 race maiden, equally divided between turf and AW, all the latter runs at Newcastle. In his 11 previous runs he's hardly moved from a lowly mark of 46; looking at BHA ratings he's up 2lb as a result of an improved run to finish runner-up over CD LTO, but i'm not convinced he's a miler (also entered in the 17.30 over 12f). A field of 9 although realistically only 6 can win, but they are all closely matched and it looks a tricky handicap. It may well transpire the penny has finally dropped and he hoses up, but i don't think he wins this evening. Good luck and have a nice evening all. | ||||||||
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Good luck Andrew, what a horrible race.
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EMR
It was a horrible race and he certainly wasn't a 11/8 bet when i posted. 14 IR | ||||||||
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Andrew, i hope you backed a bit of that price IR as a saver.
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No i didn't EMR, no BF/LV and i don't have racing channels over here.
I listened to the BF radio commentary and thought it had won easily, it was only a head. Roll on Cheltenham  | ||||||||
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Good morning
I am sure Andrew will be along later but meanwhile, I though Easy As That 4.10 Sandown was an exceptional win bet at 9/1. Not won this year but has been running in much higher class and mark now down to last winning one. I am having to contain myself from not seriously over betting this one and hope to get some Cheltenham stakes. GL | ||||||||
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What a stinker of a run, thought today was the day, clearly not. I will return to my cave.
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Good morning Guys from a dismal looking and wet West London.
Arrived in Gatwick yesterday morning and spent a few hours with relatives in the city during the afternoon. Trusty, thanks for the selection, at least it wasn't a shortie that got beaten so no need to revert to cave dwelling just yet . I didn't see any racing in the afternoon although i lost a couple of Tenners on Lively Citizen (EW 33/1) in the Imperial Cup. The only race i watched later was the bumper at Gowran won by the WPM trained/Ricci owned Pout Joulain that i backed earlier (apologies for the aftertime). I was surprised at the SP, i really thought he would be around 4/6, so it paid our expenses yesterday. On to this afternoon, half-decent cards in UK for a Sunday and an interesting card at Naas where i have a tentative selection in the Leinster Grand National. At Kelso (2.45) i will be laying Limerick Leader who is a maiden over the larger obstacles (won a hurdle race 2 years ago). The first time visor may have brought some improvement LTO when he finished runner-up, but only 4 of the original field of 9 completed the course and it was over 20.5f. Drops to 17f that may not necessarily be a negative, but i don't think he will be winning this afternoon (currently odds of 2.98). In the Naas Leinster Grand National (4.37) Espanito Bella may win the race for the 2nd year running even though he has 8lb more to carry. His recent form has suffered a bit, but has he been trained with this race in mind, his record at the course is 1-1-2-4-1-0-1-1. I think the likely favourite Minella Cocooner is short enough, but i will play a small win 3/TBP for the stake. The Küblers are in-form stable and have an interesting runner at Southwell in Brave Zulu this evening (5.25) who looked to have some potential as a 2 year old. Ran well on debut at Wolverhampton so the surface will not be an issue. Won at Kempton next time out and the runner-up has franked the form. Readers know my syndicate share in Salamanca Lad is trained by Dan and Claire, but i'm not privy to any information for my selection. Staying with Salamanca Lad, he finished his 2nd week of fast work yesterday and Dan mentioned he's going to come up with a few tentative race options in the next few days, so it looks we may be getting a run this month (hopefully at a weekend). Feedback is excellent from the stable if anyone is interested in getting involved one day. Like many, i'm looking forward to Cheltenham next week, irrespective of the high profile NR's, although my first day viewing will be from a hotel room TV, unlike last year. My Tuesday selections will probably be restricted to a lay of Tullyhill with win bets for Stateman and Lossiemouth who i particularly fancy, but more on these later. My only AP bet for Cheltenham so far is Bunting in the Triumph Hurdle and i added a small win stake this morning (22 on here). Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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Thank you ANDREW
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Good morning Guys,
A short post as i'm meeting my sister in Central London. Thanks Lampus. My lay selection, Limerick Leader drifted a little in the betting (9/4f) and finished a well beaten 6th of 7. Conversely, the win bet Brave Zulu was heavily backed from 2.12 to a SP of 4/7 (it wasn't even the original overnight favourite) and won. Another winner for the Kübler stable. The EW choice Espanito Bella UR at the 5th fence in the Leinster GN (of course it would have won ).Only a single selection this afternoon, a lay of the PN trained Broken Halo (3.40 Taunton). Loves Sandown and much is being made of his run when he finished runner-up behind Farceur Du Large in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup LTO that wasn't a particularly strong field anyway and 3 of the 5 runners didn't finish. In 3 runs over a trip exceeding 24f, has failed to deliver with figures of 12-F-PU. A mark of 130 gives him a sneak of a chance, but i don't think he will be winning this afternoon. Good luck and have a nice Monday. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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Good morning Guys,
A dreary day just outside West London, but the Cheltenham festival starts in just over 3 hours and that is ample compensation in my book; i will be watching from a Gatwick hotel room later anyway. A losing lay yesterday, the only thing i got right was the price (2.98 vs SP 4/1). Mind you if the runner-up had jumped better it would have been a different result, but unfortunately clutching at straws doesn't pay out. My primary Tuesday bets are already on, a lay of Tullyhill (4.4) in the opener, a few backs of Stateman and to a much lesser stake, Lossiemouth. Not very original with the latter pair, but if SM wins, i will not lose on the day, and conversely will not win if he does get beaten. My biggest cheer of the afternoon will be for the mare, just as it was for another of her sex on Arc day. Connections are thinking of a run in the French Champion hurdle at Auteuil, the same weekend II Est Francais runs in the Grand Steeplechase De Paris, i certainly want to be there for the pair, i've never been to the course. I think the Supreme is an open race and heavy ground may not suit all the field, in particular Tellherthename, one of my original outsiders for the race, along with Asian Master, who will not mind the going and could be a win and 3/TBP play at 22/5.5 on here, although Tom Costello will not be able to claim 7lb. I'm not convinced Tullyhill is as good as a few pundits have intimated in recent days even though he won impressively LTO. It was a weak listed race, he only beat maiden winners and an easy lead made his task easier. PT will probably try the same tactics again, but it's a half-decent field and if a gun was put to my head, i would say Slade Steel is the one. Another outsider that may be worth a small bet is Gala Marceau in the Mares Hurdle, the only horse to have beaten Lossiemouth, albeit luckily. Similar odds to Asian Master and the going will not be an issue, but has to put a poor Punchestown run behind her. In the Arkle, i think JPR One could run well, he seems to be a forgotten horse and it's an open Arkle this year unless Gaelic Warrior's run at the DRF was a 'blip'. Jumps well in the main and although he needs to find a little more, odds of 15.5 and 4.0 for 3/TBP are worth a small stake. A bit of racing trivia, Cheltenham and Sweden have little in common, but from what i know, the country is represented by a Swedish born trainer at the festival this afternoon for the first time. The guru's may correct me on the latter, but the first part is certainly correct. Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
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Nice start for you Andrew.
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Hope someone put a gun to your head Andrew and made you have a bet on Slade Steel, but the lay landed anyway, well done.
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Very good day for you Andrew, don't give it them back, hope all the good things have gone in today.
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Good evening Guys,
Many thanks for the posts. A good day, my only regret is i wasn't with a few friends on course, as last year, but this was more or less sealed when CH wasn't going to run. Reviewing my fun EW bets the closest i got was 4th with Asian Master (16/1) only beaten a neck for 3rd and a pay-out. JPR One was the same odds in the Arkle, but finished well beaten. Gala Marceau (12/1) in the mares and Stumptown (17/2) in the Ultima, both small EW didn't show anything. I backed Slade Steel in the Supreme, albeit only £20 win and if i hadn't been in a betting shop placing bets on Stateman, i wouldn't have. I thought Tullyhill was a good lay bet, in fact i think the guys in my WhatsApp group were probably fed of hearing about it recently. His form is not actually that good as i intimated earlier, and i was surprised he was as low as 11/4f. Stateman was always going to be a make or break day (or even week) and i had several decent size bets, best price 4/9 with Betfred, but as low as 1.37 on here. Of all the shorties to run, i thought this one was probably the safest. Icing on the cake was Lossiemouth, and regular readers know i'm a big fan of her, in fact i have been seen her debut in France and i put her up SP for the Triumph Hurdle last year. I would back her in a match with Stateman and she might have even beaten him today, but i think connections did the right thing. I didn't play in the remaining races. I've left a few high street bets on for the rest of the week, including Ballyburn in the opener as we're off to Barcelona tomorrow, although actually staying in Lloret Del Mar, a little further up the coast, until we return to München on Monday evening. I've been to the city before, not the resort, but a Spanish colleague at DLR told me it was 'touristy'. It's not a big deal anyway, we're in a quality hotel, pool, gym, balcony and for a few hours each afternoon over the next 3 days i will be watching ITV racing anyway. I'm happy just having 10 days out of the office and just relaxing. In the Coral Cup, Built By Ballymore is an interesting runner although i didn't expect him to be as low as 6.0 on here. I backed Solness during the DRF weekend and may have a small bet in the Grand Annual, but more on these races tomorrow afternoon. Good luck and have a nice evening, what's left of it. | ||||||||
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Well done with your selections yesterday. LLoret is unfortunately the Benidorm of Catalonia but perhaps this time of year will not be too bad. Frankly anywhere in Spain in the sunshine beats being in dreary UK.
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