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Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread
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stewarts rise10 Feb 24 16:38 What i thought was quite interesting on the morning show today was Megan Nicholls selection as bet of the day, (didn't mention it at all), but picked Noasgreatrainbow in the NHF race trained by Harry Derham where her Dad trains the Fav Histrionic. Just btn but traded under 1.5, Megan knew her Dads fav wasn't winning. narry derham is paul nicholls nephew...all related dude |
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*harry derham
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On to racing this afternoon, when i went through the RP last night, i thought the Allegorie De Vassy was a lay (Naas 3.40) and this one could be my first PL lay post of 2024 if odds remain around 2/1. Another potential, but riskier lay is Charlatan (6.00 Wolverhampton). I think Shishkin will win in what is basically at match at Newbury (2.05) but i can't trust him at odds-on.
At least you didn't do them both! |
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Good evening Guys,
There's an odds-on shortie running later that i think could get beaten, albeit a risky lay so i wouldn't put it up as a P/L selection. Tonal (19.15 Wolverhampton will be popular with backers, a lightly raced potential improver, winner LTO and a decent apprentice in Billy Loughnane on board. Ran well enough in his last couple of outings here although each time from stall 1 where he raced prominently. A little wider in 5 tonight and the stalls are close to the bend over the extended 9f, so Billy will need to get a handy position early, but will he. Carries a 5lb penalty for the win LTO, but he's actually 2 lb worse in as his rating only went up by 3lb. Top weight and conceding 9lb and 14 lb to his primary rivals. Could well hose up, but at 1.98 on here, i wouldn't want to be lumping on and i will lay it small. Good luck and have a nice evening all. More tomorrow. |
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I've backed that at 3/1 and taken my stake back at Evens.
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Hi PHS
Good luck, obviously well backed and it's entered up on Monday so connections could be making use of a potentially low handicap mark. Not for me though. |
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Never been 3/1, not even Fantasy Island Bookmakers, should stick to laying Ikeas backs in the "Premiership" PHS, leading the most odds on backs beaten!!
HTH |
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Good call.
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WD Andrew.
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Very nice lay of that short priced fav Andrew, must be difficult to know what to include in official P/L, well done.
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Nothing difficult about facts Stewarts but you must have realised by now they are few and far between among the Sociopaths when challenged?
Even PHS had to tell a porkies, as if he had been waiting for the post!!! |
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Tipped a short priced Fav as a lay and it got well btn, simple enough isn't it.
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CagliariG 30 Dec 23 20:06
Still waiting after years for you to substantiate your idiotic claim that I ever said I caught either of the fish Rico?  TOBYMUG POSTED... BTW WE LANDED 2 FISH SO FAR,ONE 81KG AND GET THIS 123KG,NOT MASSIVE BUT GOOD FOR US THEN POSTS... CagliariG30 Dec 23 20:06Joined: 16 Jul 22 | Topic/replies: 7,096 | Blogger: CagliariG's blog Still waiting after years for you to substantiate your idiotic claim that I ever said I caught either of the fish Rico? FCKN PMSL. |
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Simple as you say so why ask what will be official and what will not? Thought you knew better Stew, where for instance are the responses from the questions asked before this thread was conveniently created?
Never wondered why "PHS" is always the one to bump the thread or wondered what happened to Mr Speadsheet who was going to provide the graphs for this thread and the previous years or how happysandwich went from being unable to post on the right thread in the team compy to producing spreadsheets in a few days? |
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LOL the fellow Conman shoots himself in the foot AGAIN!!!
Wrong species, wrong Continent like closed bases shafter, carry on!! |
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Correct Manoleeds , didn't realize it was being queried
 Click on all history and scroll down Bet364+1 , 3/1 last night clear as day. https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/wolverhampton/19:15/winner/bet-history/tonal |
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And laid PHS manoleeds? He has not replied and said that simply because he did what you did!!!
HTH |
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The genius Hayden did the same, an hour and a half behind me!!! Believe all you read Hayden, you normally do!!
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CagliariG 16 Feb 24 19:16
Never been 3/1, not even Fantasy Island Bookmakers, should stick to laying Ikeas backs in the "Premiership" PHS, leading the most odds on backs beaten!! HTH Hayden 16 Feb 24 19:59 Correct Manoleeds , didn't realize it was being queried Confused Click on all history and scroll down Bet364+1 , 3/1 last night clear as day. tobymugs making an utter cnt of himself again...#WAC |
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It is called BAIT shafter, welcome to the catch of the day!!!
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Not sure what all this is about, but great lay Andrew, tip of the hat.
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Easily impressed stu? A whole paragraph to say can't put it up as official, might sluice up, small lay?
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Good afternoon Guys,
Thank you for the posts, appreciated as always. The suggested lay Tonal (11/10f) who had been well backed during the day finished a well beaten 4th (almost 6L). Raced prominently enough early on and looked as though he may challenge the eventual winner off the final bend, but was one paced and faded. Stewart Ref your 19.22 post, correct, although it was a risky lay of course. I would probably be better off including odds-on shorties in Lay Posts, i'm going to get some wrong during the year anyway. Never mind, i made a small profit. On to this afternoon and a few decent cards to look forward to, although i don't think some of the races look as cut and tried as the odds may suggest. Apparently Harry Cobden's mounts at Ascot have been well backed in this morning; i thought his best chances were in the first couple, but i wouldn't back either. In the Ascot chase (3.56) i'm a layer of Ahoy Senor, good on his day, but those days are few and far between, additionally i think he wants further. Over at Haydock where conditions will be very testing, i thought Botox Has (2.40) was a lay when i looked at the card last night. The overnight favourite, but has drifted a little since, albeit still within my 5/2 limit for a PL post if i decide later. Has a good record first run after a break, 1-1-P-F-1-2-1, but not as impressive thereafter although he does contest decent graded races. Only the one run on heavy where he was unplaced and concedes 6lb to his primary rivals (Grade 2 win penalty). The National Trial looks tricky even naming the eventual favourite, never mind finding the winner, but the bottom weight and improving Snipe is a tentative EW off a mark of 124. Never run over this sort of trip before, but i doubt lack of stamina will be an issue. Maybe more later. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. |
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Thank you Andrew for your post and well done on your lay yesterday.
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Well swerved Andrew
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The Tonal race has a free Timeform result summary if anyones interested (need to be registered and logged in).
Think you caught one not running to form (quick return maybe as TF say) rather than any of the reasons stated in your summary Andrew; draw is of no consequence over 9f at Wolves, if anything stall 1 has a worse record than some of the other stalls and he's run too badly for the 5lb penalty to have made the difference (5f and 7f are the big draw races at Wolves). I think that just shows why you should include these shorties as P&L selections. They can get beat for all sorts of reasons and the payout (if they win) hurts a lot less than a 5/2 shot. |
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^ I think even an on-form Tonal would have struggled to beat the well-backed switcher FTO for a new trainer. I never saw that one coming pre-race but they're often difficult to spot unless you have info from connections.
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Good morning Guys,
Thank you for the posts. A mixed bag with the 2 suggested lays yesterday, Ahoy Senor drifted in the betting and never looked like being involved in the finish, but class told with Botox Has who hosed up, looking the winner from some way out. The latter was riskier of the two by far (i've never really been a fan of Ahoy Senor) but although swerving it as a lay post here, i did lay it myself, albeit to small stakes. According to media reports, it appears he may skip Cheltenham and go for the Grade 1 at Aintree next. As for Ahoy Senor i noticed he's entered in the Ryanair; i can't understand the drop in trip (as yesterday) but i guess if it's not the Gold Cup, there's only one other practical option for a horse of his class, and he has been placed in some decent races to be fair. PHS I'm also registered with Timeform although i haven't read the report you're referring to yet. I agree with you and respect to the draw (apologies for the error) when i posted i had it in my head that stalls for the extended 9f trip were positioned close to the bend, but it's actually the extended 8f and unless quick out of the stalls is not the place to be. The draw wasn't sole reason for a lay suggestion anyway, he was 2 lb worse in on current ratings and conceding 9lb/14lb to his primary rivals who both finished in front of him. He had every chance in the straight, but faded. I didn't see him as an odds-on bet although i appreciate you were on at 3/1. On to this afternoon/evening, typical Sunday cards, there's not even a French flat AW meeting i often look at. Speaking of France, regular readers know i'm a big fan of IL Est Francais and not only since his Kauto Star novices romp at Kempton on Boxing day, in fact i actually went as far as to state he will not be beaten in 2024. There are 4 runs planned for my forecast to be tested at least, possibly 2 of them in England later in the year. The Prix Murat (April 6th) and Grand Steeplechase De Paris (May 19th) are probably a given as there isn't a local runner to beat him, but a pre-KG run could be Cheltenham in the Autumn. I've never been to Auteuil, but one of the Spring dates is a possible visit for me. Back to today, if there is a odds-against shortie to back later, maybe Noche Negra at Southwell (2.25) is one to consider. Lightly raced and his record as a chaser already exceeds what he did over hurdles, although this was to be expected being a full brother to Nube Negra. Up 8 lb for a win LTO, but this is negated by the jockey claim and 1 lb lower rating than the Pipe horse. You need to be prominent at Southwell and the track should suit. Currently trading around 2.42. As for a lay, i may be posting one at Kempton (7.30) later, Al Farabi. I mentioned last year i had joined the Fellowship syndicate (i go racing with a couple of them) in fact several guys on my WhatsApp group have done the same. We aligned forces with Dan and Claire Kübler's Diskovery syndicate last year and purchased the 2 year old Salamanca Lad at the HIT sales in October. Ex-Richard Fahey trained and won over 6f at Thirsk last year, but the plan is to step up in trip. A few of the guys have been over for a stable visit, one of them as recently as yesterday, but not me yet. Feedback is positive and we often receive videos on him on the gallops (the horse, not my mate  ). He could have his first run for us on the AW in March.As an aside to the above, my mate mentioned Kübler stable staff were preparing to send the Cambridgeshire winner Astro King to Saudi Arabia for the Howden Neon Turf Cup (24th February) worth 2,000,000 USD to the winner. Several other trainers supporting the weekend event, not only in this race. A couple of links if anyone is interested. https://issuu.com/equestrian-jcsa/docs/likely_fields_saudi_cup_2024_as_at_090224_2023 https://issuu.com/equestrian-jcsa/docs/2024_stats_book.docx Not only do i have 10% in Salamanca Lad, but in November i bought 5% in an unraced 2 year old Kodi Bear filly in Ireland, albeit as a present for my daughter in her name. Another forum poster we go racing with is also involved. She will be trained by Danny Murphy who is branching out on his own after time with Keiran Cotter, and is now based at Rossmore Stables/Curragh. Looking at her breeding, sprinting will be her trip. Bought by Liam Clarke at Goffs : https://www.goffs.com/sale/IRE/orby-book-2/lots/736 Hopefully she will run in the Dublin area and getting there is not much different to Heathrow from München, although i doubt i/we will go over for every run. Buying an unraced 2 year old is simply a punt and expectations are minimal, but i love the game, Dublin is a wonderful city and even if she never wins (or Salamanca Lad for that matter) another tick in the box of life experiences. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. |
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Best of luck with your "punts" Andrew,plenty of people betting all their lives, some seriously successful,
never pay for as much of a hair of a horse. |
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Best of luck with the hosses AIS,exciting times.
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Nice to have a little interest in a couple of horses Andrew, makes your hobby real rather than just a paper exercise. Much better and more affordable than paying for one or two horses outright. Leave that to the mega rich with more money than sense, will follow them with interest.
Always an interesting read Andrew, one of the few posts left on here that are. I'm sure Stockholm is a lovely city still but will it stay that way, hope so. |
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Thank you Andrew, had a bet on Noche Negra.
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Good evening Guys from a very wet München,
Many thanks for the kind comments with respect to racehorse ownership, albeit at a lower end of the scale, so i don't expect Coolmore and the 'Boys in Blue' to lose any sleep just yet. Of course, everyone involved are excited and eagerly looking forward to their respective first runs, probably in March for Salamanca Lad and April for the filly. In bygone years i owned a few Greyhounds at Reading and Slough, albeit only middle of the card graders at best and i always wanted to win an open class race, but never did, although i came close to winning an egg and spoon trophy when one of mine finished 2nd to a short price favourite in a special event card. The day Claremont Point, my first dog won at Slough, i probably felt like John Magnier winning the Epsom Derby, the buzz was something i will never forget and i have no doubt if i can tick off winning horse owner as well at some stage this year, the celebrations will surpass the screaming and hullabaloo when Blue Rose Cen won at Longchamp on Arc day, much to the amusement of my friends. A couple of selections last Sunday, a lay and back, both paying out (WD EMR) although i didn't lay Al Farabi as i was in the city centre with a multitude of locals trying to get a glimpse of Western politicians and high ranking defence personnel at the München Security Conference, a 3 day yearly event. Ken Starmer was there, as were many prominent names including Hilary Clinton, Kamala Harris and John Kerry from the USA, accompanied by swarms of what were probably secret service personnel. On to racing this evening and i thought about putting up a lay selection, but the only reasoning (apart from a gut feeling) is his in-and-out form and the fact i fancy a much better priced rival to win, so hardly valid grounds to lay it, even at the short odds (2.72). The runner in question to lay is Irish Flame (7.30 Newcastle) even though he's down in grade. On the flip side of the coin, the one i think could win is aptly named, Win Win Power who could be worth a small win (currently odds of 9.4) and 3/TBP (2.74) to cover the stake with a small overall profit. Winning is not new to him, a record of 8 from 32 runs on the AW is testament to his ability, at least in the context of a class 5 handicap. Never won at Newcastle, albeit only had a couple of runs, but Tapeta will not be an issue, nor will the trip. A 3lb raise makes life a little more difficult, but with a clean run is certainly in with a shout. Good luck and have a nice evening all. |
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WD Andrew. Shame it didn't get the official thumbs up. WWP I feel was somewhat out of his grade here. Mind you, I quietly fancied (but not enough for a bet thankfully) Alexander James, so what do I know!
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Good morning Guys,
Only 2 meetings this afternoon, although the Naas card is half-decent for a Sunday, but there wasn't anything that jumped off the page when i went through the RP earlier. My bets will be few, restricted to one or two lays at most, both at Hereford. In the opener (2.10) i'm opposing the favourite Southern Sam, i'm not convinced a sharpish track is what he wants and although he won his penultimate race only 3 of the 6 runners completed the course and one of these was tailed off. Currently trading around 2.68. My other lay selection is Sammy Guarantee (4.10) the overnight favourite although it has drifted. Won LTO beating an odds-on jolly (2/5f) but was receiving 14 lb and the latter has been beaten again since. Up in trip and softer going to contend with. Looking ahead, last March i spent a few days in Bristol, using it as a base for the opening day at Cheltenham with friends i often go racing with. A fantastic day, without question a great experience, albeit not without the typical major festival issues, in particular the cost and not only for entry. Hotel rates are exorbitant in the area, i refuse to pay asking prices for 'run-of-the-mill accommodation, hence the reason for staying in Bristol not that far away. Ticket sales are down this year and racing fans have had enough, including my friends and i will not be going this year. I wanted to take a week or so off work anyway, so i'm flying to Gatwick on the Saturday (9th) staying a few days so i can watch the opening Tuesday on ITV. On Wednesday i'm off to Barcelona, not for the city, but the coastal resort of Lloret De Mar, an hour away by train. My plan is not to do much of anything except relax in a decent hotel, watch the festival somewhere and enjoy a little warmer weather. The total cost of Easy Jet/Vueling flights was on a par with a day ticket to Cheltenham anyway, although the direct flight back to München was a bit more. Looking forward to it, i've never been to Lloret, but a Spanish colleague at work gave it a thumbs-up, and it's more a chill-out, stress free 6 days really, returning Monday night. If anyone knows of betting outlets in the area, please let me know, although BF is an option of course. PHS Sure, but I couldn't really put it up as a lay post, as mentioned my reasoning was weak enough (mainly gut-feeling). As for Win Win Power, you may be correct, but he has won a couple of class 5 races; it could be he simply prefers a bend having had 3 runs at Newcastle without getting involved at the finish. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. |
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Thank you ANDREW G/L
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and you Lampus
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Lay Post
Hereford 2.10 - Southern Sam A 10 year old Black Sam Bellamy gelding trained by Richard Bandey in Hampshire. Consistent and relatively lightly raced for his age, in fact until recently had never run 3 consecutive races without a break. Hasn't really shown improvement that may have been expected after a rules debut run, fluctuating in ratings between 117 and 124 since, running off 119 this afternoon. I'm not convinced a sharpish track brings out the best in him, and although he won his penultimate race by a head, only 3 of the 6 runners completed the course and one of them was tailed off (well beaten since). Top weight and concedes 2lb to a couple and 19 lb to another if the jockey claim is included. Was beaten from some way out in his previous run and runs in first time headgear. Trainer and jockey in-form, but at the odds i'm content to oppose him in what i see as a tricky handicap. Lay @ 2.86 Good luck all |