Posting on behalf of Andrew In Sweden (regular readers know my forum access had been revoked due to location).

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts yesterday, much appreciated. Stewarts Rise, the only praying i will be doing this afternoon is just before the opening race ;-).

A superb day in Paris yesterday, and not only at Longchamp where Mr Spreadsheet and i had a winning afternoon, the others preferring to walk around the city. Today, we're all going, 7 of us and could be meeting another 2 later.

A reasonable crowd for the Saturday, and as per normal at this meeting, English speaking racegoers were in abundance. Weather was good, sunny, around 17c, ideal for me as i was suited.

Illinois stayed on really well after momentarily looking beaten in the straight, so a good start with my biggest bet of the day (PMU 1.40). Kyprios won the Cadran as most of us expected and although i mentioned AOB would win with these, i didn't back him in the end, deciding to watch him run without a bet in the race.

Ramadan won at 18/1 (PMU 14.6) a good result financially and also my favourite French trainer/jockey combination. Roll of Thunder finished 4th at 25/1 (PMU 32) only beaten a neck for 3rd after looking likely to place before Christophe Soumillon came with a Dancing Brave run on the outside to win going away. This was Aidan's 4th winner on course, and for good measure he also had a double in Ireland, superb trainer, but he needs reporting to the monopoly's commission.

My lay, the well backed 5/4f Anmaat was well beaten (i was amazed at the short SP) to round off a good afternoon, but i also had a fun win bet on Almagam (PMU 14) who made it an exciting race for me with RM getting a good run out of him only to be beaten a head.

We left the course after this race, met up with the others for dinner in the Latin Quarter and had a fun evening with plenty of banter.

On to today, a good card overall, as expected on Arc day with 7 G1 races if you include the Arabian world cup (14.40) featuring Al Ghadeer, the 'Frankel' of this horse type who won the race in 2023 and will probably start the shortest odds of the afternoon.

The far rail will be moved to provide fresh ground with a 6 metre wide cut-away 450 metres from the first winning post. Going will be soft (currently 3,6) as winning times yesterday support this.

My first bet will be in the opener, the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac (12.55) normally run later on the card and a guide to the following years 1000 guineas. A race i like and won by 2 of my favourite French fillies in Blue Rose Cen (2022) and Zarkava (2007) who both went on to better things, including an Arc win for the latter.

In my opinion, Zarigana, a grand-daughter of Zarkava with a similar running style is the best 2 year old filly in France and i've thought this since her win over CD last month. On ratings alone, she has improve to win, but considering she's only had a couple of runs (won both) this is anticipated. A decent draw in 5, she will probably race mid-field, but has inherited a superb turn of foot from her Grandmother and i expect Mickael Barzalona to 'press the button' at the 400 metre pole and go on to win. I will be disappointed if she doesn't, but like all punters, it's all about opinions, i've been wrong before and will be again, although i have a feeling this filly is special and could be a potential Arc winner in 2025.

The G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (13.30) appears to be open, and although i think Field of Gold will be overbet, i doubt i want to lay it. If i play, it will be a small EW on the French colt Misunderstood who was impressive on the course LTO and could be anything. A tricky draw in 7 could be offset by making the running as i envisage.

The Prix L'Abbaye (14.05) is a benefit race for British stables, in fact the home team have only won it on 4 occasions since 1987 (i couldn't be bothered to check back further). The French don't do sprinters, not a total surprise considering L'Esgargots (Snails) are a delicacy over there, and in a 16 runner field this afternoon, they are only represented by 3 entries, a couple of them 66/1.

On soft going, a low draw is paramount and my original selection, the Richard Hughes trained No Half Measures has been handed the 12 stall, so my EW stake will be reduced and that's even if i decide to back it. Mind you, he ran well to finish 6th over CD on trials day from stall 10 and was only beaten 0.75L in a bunch finish, although it's a stronger field today.

Moving on to the Arc, the main event, even though the field could be described as 'not a vintage one' by any means, but it's certainly an open one. Sadly the non-participation of City Of Troy, Economics and White Birch, combined with the ridiculous rule that restricts geldings from running has robbed racing fans of what could be deemed the best field for some time. Goliath, Calangadan, Iresine and Rebels Romance being this years recipients on the 'lost his wedding tackle' list. Having said that, it's a reasonable field, albeit with question marks over several. 

Regular readers know i have been backing Aventure (win only at average odds of 27) since June after she won impressively at Chantilly. 9 of the last 16 Arc winners were fillies/mares and 3 year olds in particular have a decent record. She ran well to finish a close 2nd behind Bluestocking, only beaten 0.75 after taking the lead before the 200 metre pole in the Prix Vermeille on trials day. Fair play to the winner who rallied well, but i think Aventure went too soon and in a match bet, i would want to be on her.

I was on course 3 weeks ago for the trials and readers know i was on Sosie at 4.2 that day; i think he will confirm form with Lopa De Vega who i'm not convinced stays 12f.

This afternoons Arc is difficult to weigh up, none with a rating normally required to win the race and 50% are 3 year olds with no real stand-out, at least not today. It wouldn't surprise me if there was shock result, and to this end i will have a fun EW on Zarakem who could out-run his high double figure odds if he can reproduce his Prince of Wales Ascot form behind Auguste Rodin. I will be backing Aventure for a place to cover my Arc win bet with a small profit.

I don't have a fancy for anything in the Prix L'Opera (16.05) and will probably sit this one out.

Finally, i will be laying the likely favourite, Kinross in the G1 Prix de la Floret (16.40). As with Anmaat yesterday, a decent type, one i have backed several times, but approaching 8 years old now and his previous G1 win was 2 years ago on Ascot Champions day. There's certainly plenty of pace in the field with Tribalist and Big Rock and this will suit him, i simply feel he's not the horse he was.

Changing topic, our syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad had several possible entries next week, including Pontefract and Yarmouth tomorrow, Nottingham on Wednesday and Goodwood on Sunday, but soft going has negated this. He will be entered for Southwell in a class 4 (0-80) on 21st before going to the HIT sales at Newmarket on 28th.

My other one, a 2 year old filly in Ireland, Agouti Bear has done enough for the season and although a 4 race maiden, ran well with a record of 2-2-4-0 (idled on her 2nd race, beaten 1.03 IR). She's still immature, so hopefully she comes back stronger in 2025.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Bad luck with Aventure Andrew, nearly landed the Ante post bets, i was out most of yesterday and haven't seen the racing yet but looks like you had a very profitable weekend with the lads, Your lay Kinross also btn again.

another good run by Salamanca Lad at Wolverhampton last night, is he now off to the sales?

Thanks for the replying LL - Couldn't agree more. Finding a horse that's genuine and is straightforward and tries is not as easy as you think. Fingers crossed for next Monday

Laafi 3.15 Doncaster

Perhaps not an obvious selection which is why it is 20/1 and is the stable "second" string, with Ryan Moore on the stable favourite but it is this time of year when the stable second strings come to their fore with at least Charlie Appleby and Ralph Beckett securing some nice prices at Newmarket earlier in the week with their least fancied runner.

The selection itself is 2lb below their last winning mark and won this time last year at next week's Newmarket meeting. It is the time of year when trainers have to get winners for the owners to keep them interested for next year and I particularly like horses that are yet to win this season. It is a business after all.

Lastly the selection is ridden by Callum Rodriguez who has a 100% place record for the stable from 5 rides and a 40% win strike rate.

I have had a decent e/w although it is 40.0 on here for the win so the miserable 20/1 with the books is not great value, as always.

I have also put it in an e/w double with Secret Trix in 2.55 Cheltenham, will like the better ground, slightly shorter trip and being back over hurdles. 25/1 looked overpriced for a stable in good form.

GL.

wow very well done trusty

very well done Trusty.

59/1 on here trusty bfsp hope ya stuck a few quid on that

i always do  wi the bigger uns ^ as bfsp  near always much better

Trusty   

Yes gotta love 2nd and 3rd strings , bet Foyles was on it   

WD Trusty
Sound write up
Wish had seen it earlier

Big stringers way to go

M.C. well beaten.

xmoneyx

As your friend clearly can't read i thought i'd help him:
I've already backed small at odds between 1.99 and 2.20 and will be adding later as i expect him to win.

Andrew doesn't shy away from saying he backed a loser
hth.

Well said Stewarts, some smartarses about.

Good morning all, I hope I have found another winner in the 1.07 Newmarket The Caribbean. Currently 16/1 but has been 20/1 earlier. First the horse is dropped back to 6F for the first time since leaving AOB and the trainer is is hot form 4/7 and even the jockey is 4/16 and 2/3 last couple of days. Be nice if it drifted back out to 20+ later and I would not take less than 16/1.

My fault posting this a tad late but message from Andrew

Lucky Luciano posting on my behalf of Andrew in Sweden.

Good morning Guys,

A decent afternoon of racing for a Sunday, including a graded race at Naas featuring the return of Marine Nationale, a G1 in Germany with 4 English based hopefuls, a few listed races in France and a couple of group races in Italy where Archie Watson and Andrew Balding have a runner.

I'm off to the course at Riem, München later, primarily to watch the Grosser Allianz Preis von Bayern, a lucky race for me as i was there for Alpinista in 2021 and Junko last year (didn't go in 2022) although they were easy enough to pick (4/5f and 13/10 2nd f). A good field this afternoon and much more open than recent years, but i think the French can win again with the very consistent Marquisat trained by Andre Fabre. He was only beaten a nose by Junko at Chantilly in his penultimate run and finished 3rd to Goliath at Longchamp LTO, both runs on heavy. The going at München is generally soft this time of the year, although we haven't had an excess of rain in recent weeks, so it shouldn't it heavy. Charlie Appleby's Ancient Wisdom will probably be favourite and his runners to well in Germany, but i think Marquisat will come from off the pace in the long straight.

Betfair exchange doesn't cover München but the Sportsbook does and live video is available on Deutscher galopp.

My previous selection a couple of weeks ago, Maranoa Charlie was well beaten at Saint Cloud, but anyone who backed it (including me) would have known at a very early stage of the race that he couldn't win. Went off like the proverbial scalded cat and was 10L clear at the bend, but it was clearly obvious he couldn't keep that pace up on heavy going, i doubt even Frankel could. He finished well beaten and tired in 4th, but this run can be ignored, he's better than this.

Stewart/Glasgow

Thanks for the supporting posts, sure i got it wrong, but i'm no different to anyone on here, i win and lose, although i don't post tosh or exaggerated claims.

Trusty

Thanks for your selections.

Moving on to our Fellowship Racing syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad was sold at the recent HIT sales and reached 24,000; considering we paid 12,000 last October a decent profit and almost 17,000 in prize money. We had him for 11 races, winning 3, beaten a head in another and was only twice out of the first 4, going up 14lb, testament to a fantastic job Dan and Claire Kübler did. He will be racing in Bahrain for his new owners; i'm sure they will have a lot of fun with him.

We bought another at the same sale a couple of days later, a 2 year old Twilight Son colt, Calibos, a 4 race maiden. We paid 16,000 this time, so after expenses a return on our initial investment, including VAT, although taking the year overall, i suspect a small loss. Having said this, we are not in it for the money.

As with Salamanca Lad, we feel there will be improvement next year stepped up in trip. Still a colt, but is expected to be gelded tomorrow.

A busy few weeks of travel forthcoming, i'm off to Paris on Saturday for II Est Francais in the G1 Prix La Haye Jousselin at Auteuil the following day. I've never been to the course before, so i'm looking forward to it, although it will probably be my only visit there, in fact, if it wasn't for the horse i doubt i would ever go. I've already backed him AP for the KG, so hopefully he wins, although i will not be there to watch him. My only trip to UK prior to Christmas is for the Tingle Creek, although no flights booked yet, and i will be in Sweden on 18th December for a 3 week break, returning to Germany on 7th (6th is a holiday). I fully expect to be here in 2025, although it could be my last full year here.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Good morning

Going to have a shot at Captain Morgs Chelt 2.55 for the in-form if they are going to win trainer. Although he looks the second string on jockey bookings, he was the second string in Dec 22 when he won. Back to hurdles of a favourable mark in a race where the trainers record is 2-1-4, he has to be worth a punt especially with his favoured good ground. There are only 3 other horses in the race that prefer good going Emailandy, Itso Fury and Hardy Boy. Currently 33/1 with Ladcrooks, OK and Billies, shorter elsewhere.

Wonder if Andrew is taking the odds on Lossiemouth?