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03 Feb 24
07:52
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Date Joined:
22 Apr 19
Good morning Guys from the lovely city of Dublin
A new year, so a new belated lay thread, the concept i originally started in April 2018 and have repeated since although the original format with a P/L got side-tracked in recent years, partly due to increased workload, and in last years case, a poor run to start off when i think a touch of despondency crept in. No excuses, simply 6 selections that i felt good with pre-race, but made me look foolish after the winning post.
Although the P/L selections stopped, the thread didn't and there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate all the efforts from those involved and the thread per se is still popular, even if the forum isn't what it was. Hopefully posters will continue to contribute, but sadly more than one passed away (including Smirnoff) and The Anorak (Alan Potts) can't post at the moment, although i'm in email contact with him.
The original lay selection format was based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). A copy of the matched bet is shown, together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For transparency i will post the P/L status and everything will be recorded on this thread only.
Overall, the threads are in profit (breakdown below) but if Timeform rated me, the term 'regressing' would be mentioned and duly warranted as can be seen.
. 2018 was a good year, although i was home convalescing for several weeks so i had far more time on my hands then. Liquidity is also an issue these days, back in time i could post mid-morning with a matched bet, it's difficult to do that today except for the decent cards.
Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Overall profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Overall profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Overall Loss -£202.50
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Overall Loss -£362.50
Note the figures above are without commission, but i'm honest enough to say the only reason i do not deduct commission is winning £50 has a better ring than £49.
Good luck in 2024.
Off to Leopardstown and the DRF later, the card has lost a little lustre with Gaelic Warrior withdrawn from the Arkle, but this was hardly a surprise. I'm a fan of the latter, but i was always going to back Marine National, specially over 17f on this track, he could be a bit special, although the odds reflect this. GW may do better over the longer trip on Sunday.
I want and expect Marine National (2.25) to win, but prior to this i will be interested to see how the Tony Bloom owned/WPM trained Bunting runs in the Spring Juvenile (1.50).
As mentioned on my previous thread, i've posted the Cheltenham Triumph winner AP in the past 2 years, Vauban and Lossiemouth; both at decent odds (16/1 and 6/1) and followed both off a cliff in their juvenile runs.
I've backed him @ 10 and 12 for the Triumph, albeit only small and i will have a EW fun bet on him tomorrow. Paul Townend has chosen the favourite Storm Heart who was impressive LTO, but he doesn't always get it right (we're alike in this context).
The breeding isn't anything to scream about, but he's a once raced maiden winner at Fontainebleau, France and the form is not too shabby with a subsequent group race runner in behind, who was only 12/1 for the G1 Grand Prix De Paris won by Feed The Flame. Jumped and ran well on hurdle debut at Limerick, but clearly has to improve to win. If he's in contention at the last, his flat race pace will be an asset. Has drifted in the betting to 14/1 (10/1 yesterday) and appears to be WPM's 5th string, but he could spring a surprise. If he doesn't, a small bet at double figure odds is not going to ruin a nights sleep.
As always, contributions are more than welcomed.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
A new year, so a new belated lay thread, the concept i originally started in April 2018 and have repeated since although the original format with a P/L got side-tracked in recent years, partly due to increased workload, and in last years case, a poor run to start off when i think a touch of despondency crept in. No excuses, simply 6 selections that i felt good with pre-race, but made me look foolish after the winning post.
Although the P/L selections stopped, the thread didn't and there were winners (and losers) not only from myself, but others that actually like to discuss horse racing. I really appreciate all the efforts from those involved and the thread per se is still popular, even if the forum isn't what it was. Hopefully posters will continue to contribute, but sadly more than one passed away (including Smirnoff) and The Anorak (Alan Potts) can't post at the moment, although i'm in email contact with him.
The original lay selection format was based on only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). A copy of the matched bet is shown, together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For transparency i will post the P/L status and everything will be recorded on this thread only.
Overall, the threads are in profit (breakdown below) but if Timeform rated me, the term 'regressing' would be mentioned and duly warranted as can be seen.
. 2018 was a good year, although i was home convalescing for several weeks so i had far more time on my hands then. Liquidity is also an issue these days, back in time i could post mid-morning with a matched bet, it's difficult to do that today except for the decent cards. Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Overall profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Overall profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Overall Loss -£202.50
Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
Total 6 selections
Success 2/6
Strike rate 33%
Overall Loss -£362.50
Note the figures above are without commission, but i'm honest enough to say the only reason i do not deduct commission is winning £50 has a better ring than £49.
Good luck in 2024.
Off to Leopardstown and the DRF later, the card has lost a little lustre with Gaelic Warrior withdrawn from the Arkle, but this was hardly a surprise. I'm a fan of the latter, but i was always going to back Marine National, specially over 17f on this track, he could be a bit special, although the odds reflect this. GW may do better over the longer trip on Sunday.
I want and expect Marine National (2.25) to win, but prior to this i will be interested to see how the Tony Bloom owned/WPM trained Bunting runs in the Spring Juvenile (1.50).
As mentioned on my previous thread, i've posted the Cheltenham Triumph winner AP in the past 2 years, Vauban and Lossiemouth; both at decent odds (16/1 and 6/1) and followed both off a cliff in their juvenile runs.
I've backed him @ 10 and 12 for the Triumph, albeit only small and i will have a EW fun bet on him tomorrow. Paul Townend has chosen the favourite Storm Heart who was impressive LTO, but he doesn't always get it right (we're alike in this context).
The breeding isn't anything to scream about, but he's a once raced maiden winner at Fontainebleau, France and the form is not too shabby with a subsequent group race runner in behind, who was only 12/1 for the G1 Grand Prix De Paris won by Feed The Flame. Jumped and ran well on hurdle debut at Limerick, but clearly has to improve to win. If he's in contention at the last, his flat race pace will be an asset. Has drifted in the betting to 14/1 (10/1 yesterday) and appears to be WPM's 5th string, but he could spring a surprise. If he doesn't, a small bet at double figure odds is not going to ruin a nights sleep.
As always, contributions are more than welcomed.
Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
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Andrew, Good luck with this years thread, and hope you enjoy your Irish trip.
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Welcome to Dublin Andrew, I hope you have a cracking weekend.Good luck with your new thread.
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Off to Leopardstown and the DRF later, the card has lost a little lustre with Gaelic Warrior withdrawn from the Arkle, but this was hardly a surprise. I'm a fan of the latter, but i was always going to back Marine National, specially over 17f on this track, he could be a bit special, although the odds reflect this. GW may do better over the longer trip on Sunday. without wishing to seem pedantic,surely its especially. although im sure youre special in many ways andrew. | ||||||||
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Looking forward to a great 2024 read Andrew and best of luck , hope you have a great live racing weekend in that very special city of Dublin.
Hopefully the thread will remain free of thread spoilers and we can concentrate on horse racing plus the odd aircraft conversation with which you'll no doubt enlighten us all  | ||||||||
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Thanks for the posts Guys, another hour or so we will be on course. Staying at Sandymount hotel, close to the Aviv stadium, the difference in customer service and friendliness of the Irish is a light year away compared to München, nothing is too much trouble, i wish there was an aerospace plant in Dublin. 3 of us going, including another poster, meeting another 1 or 2 on course and Simon Nott if he's working with Star Sports.
With exception of Marine National and Galopin Des Champs, only fun bets with small stakes. If Marine wins, i will not lose on the day, and if Bunting wins or places, my cheering will be heard in Limerick Chavman Agreed and Hayden Don't get me started on aircraft, i wouldn't get to work  Good luck all. | ||||||||
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Nice to see the Thread back, Good luck today Andrew.
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Hurray!!!!!!!!!!
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All the best, good luck. Remember him right-handed track, scratchy jump at the last GER bred Tony Bloom
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Have a good weekend Andrew, and a successful thread this year, best wishes.
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Always read ( and sometimes act upon ! ) your posts with great interest Andrew. Best of luck with everything for this year and beyond .
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What are u wearing Andrew
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Frogman suit
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?
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This Andrew gets everywhere
 https://www.simonnott.co.uk/blog-racing/dublin-racing-festival-ak-bets-saturday-3rd-february-2024 There were several people who came to the AK pitch for bets early and to say hello, they included George, Barney, who I sadly missed first time around but he came back shortly afterwards, Andrew from Sweden and Jack, not Jock, sorry Jack it was the Newcastle accent and Kyle. It’s brilliant to be told that people read these blogs and enjoy them. Apart from me having the easy job of just writing about people working, the AK Bets team today were AK, Tony, aka AK senior, and Dave ‘Tidler’ on the top Tatts pitch with Dave ‘Gogglebox Ire’ O’Reilly and Graham Sullivan on the middle Tatts position. | ||||||||
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Someone needs to tell him its Andrew in Sweden not from Sweden.
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Good morning Guys,
Thank you for the posts. A losing afternoon at Leopardstown yesterday, but a really nice day overall. If Marine National had won the Arkle it would have made a difference financially, but life is not always about money. Galopin Des Champs was my only winner, and all other bets were small win or EW, the best being Solness 3rd @ 5/1. AK bets had a couple of pitches and i had a chat with Star Sports blogger Simon Nott, but the guys wouldn't lay me €1000 @8/13 on MN (it was 4/7 at the time) although to be fair it was just after they had layed it for 5K. I got the 8/13 with Fitzpatrick, so i was happy pre-race. I watched the race from top level seating with an often poster on here, just in front of the Coolmore box, so a decent view, but even before the final bend i had a feeling he wasn't travelling like a winner. I haven't seen any post race comment from Barry, but a poor run (eased late on). I don't chase losses, and although i thought Galopin Des Champs would win later, i restricted my bet to €450, so a small recovery. My EW selection (and AP bet for the Triumph Hurdle) Bunting jumped high at a couple, a bit novicey at times and was slightly hampered at the last when in 6th, but stayed on to be 4th, only beaten just over 2L (i don't with the RP comment 'hung left'). Others shared my view as he was 14/1 in the morning, but was well backed down to 15/2. Bookmaker reaction was to push him out to 20/1 in places, with stablemate Storm Heart who was a length in front as low as 7/1. I could be tempted to have another small bet at those odds, but will Willie run him on the Boodles. We went into the centre after racing, found a nice restaurant, Davy Byrnes, good food and plenty of banter with the female waitress, a lovely girl who gave us truthful advice with a few menu items. On to this afternoon, there's a few shorties running and it looks like a WPM benefit card, although this can be said for many days in the Irish racing calendar. I think Gaelic Warrior will win even though i'm a fan of Grangeclare West. The opener, a listed handicap is a minefield, but i like one of the outsiders, Bloomfield Bijou who is a general 12/1 with the books and currently 13 on here. Winner of a maiden and a large field handicap hurdle, with a couple of placings since, latterly in a similar race. Running off a low mark of 125 and will probably be up with the pace throughout. I sense he's been trained for this race, but it's not a race to involved in, so a small EW for me at a price. Good luck and have a nice Sunday all. . I will post a Dublin and DRF summary tomorrow as another Irish breakfast is looming. Freddie What are u wearing Andrew Suit, but no shillelagh Hayden I think i was an Albatros in a previous life, spending more time in the air than on ground. PHS The years i have lived/worked in Sweden, i should have used Anders in Sweden. | ||||||||
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We went into the centre after racing, found a nice restaurant, Davy Byrnes, good food and plenty of banter with the female waitress, a lovely girl who gave us truthful advice with a few menu items.
I would get chastised for saying this in my house. She'd say "you wouldn't say a lovely boy if a male served you. I see nowt wrong with it personally. I sense he's been trained for this race, but it's not a race to involved in, so a small EW for me at a price. get too involved in maybe? | ||||||||
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oops! Close quote marks after you.
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Couldn't find u yesterday. What colour tie today
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Good luck Andrew with the new thread, always interesting to read your thoughts on the racing, together with any sensible views from fellow posters.
Next year will try and join you guys at the DRF. Missed out this time but can’t complain, as went along to the Coolmore Raceday at Garrison Savannah yesterday (Saturday) which turned out a fun day  and another racecourse I can tick off. | ||||||||
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Wishing you good luck with the 2024 Lay thread Andrew will be watching with interest.
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Freddie he wasn't wearing a tie yesterday , more casual look ..
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Good afternoon Guys,
Thank you for the posts. A short post as i'm eating/responding to emails at KLM lounge, Schiphol whilst waiting for my next flight to München at 17.50. A good day at Leopardstown yesterday and a winning one, although it was probably easier to win than lose. I didn't recover all Saturday losses, but a really nice weekend, good company and plenty of banter. More to follow this evening or tomorrow. PHS I typed girl as she was only 19 and i agree with you. As for the spelling, a regular occurrence on my threads, i rarely check them Lucky/Happysandwich thank you. LL hope your luck was in at GA. Freddie Black suit, Blue collarless shirt, Blue padded jacket and a Black watch strap; surprised you didn't see me. I gave the tie a miss yesterday; after Saturdays loss on MN, i didn't want to risk El Fabiolo losing and having to use it as a noose. Workrider Good to see you again and thanks for the 'upgrade'. | ||||||||
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Good to see the 2024 thread up and running Andrew, I hope your flight departs on time.
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Best of luck with this one Andrew,so it was yourself and wingerwanger painting the town..
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Good luck for 2024 Andrew - It certainly was a good weekend and nice to meet Workrider
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Good morning Guys from an overcast, but mild München,
Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always. This time last week i was enjoying an almost full Irish breakfast (without the Black and White pudding) and discussing runners at Leopardstown with a couple of mates i go racing with; unfortunately with a bit too much emphasis on Marine National in the Arkle. I obviously don't need to mention the outcome of that race. We stayed in the Sandymount hotel, close to Aviva stadium and the coastal area, not far from Dublin city centre. The DART station is only a few minutes walk, but we decided to take a taxi to the course, 3 of us sharing the cost. One thing the Irish can do well is talk, we all know this, but the driver was like a Gatling gun bless him, almost the entire trip was a commentary on football and racing with a few F words thrown in occasionally, he was certainly a fun character and brightened up an overcast morning. Loved it. We took a taxi the following day, but with a non-Irish driver who didn't say a word, a chalk and cheese difference. Leopardstown experiences the usual negatives issues associated with major horse racing festivals, primarily queues for toilets and drinks, although we found a very small Guinness/beer bar in the grandstand between the PP and Tote shops, partially concealed by wall, and no queue at all. I didn't eat there, but walking past one of the dining areas, the food looked OK. The overall atmosphere was good and panoramic views over the course and beyond from upper tiers is very picturesque. From a betting perspective, i was on the back foot from the opener, albeit only a small EW on Bunting (my AP Cheltenham bet) and later placing a lot of faith in the Arkle favourite as mentioned in a previous post. I recovered some of the loss on Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup and was a winner on day two, but overall a losing weekend. In hindsight i should have backed El Fabiolo and State Man larger to come away with a weekend profit, i couldn't see either getting beaten, but i thought the same about MN and sometimes you simply have to take a loss on the chin. I didn't have so many bets at the festival anyway, in fact, i skipped the 3 races after State Man (stayed on the course) but still more than the entire January, although it's a quiet racing period during the month. For anyone that has never been to the DRF, i can recommend it, even allowing for the fact it's getting too crowded, facilities need reviewing and basically a Willie Mullins benefit. Personally, i don't have an issue with the latter; best trainer with the best horses and owners, what is he meant to do. We saw past and future Cheltenham/Aintree winners, top class racing at considerably loss cost than a day at Cheltenham. I took several mental thoughts away from the meeting, El Fabiolo will not be beaten this season, although many would agree, he's definitely in the Sprinter Sacre mould. I haven't given up on Bunting for the Triumph Hurdle (currently 22 on here) assuming WPM doesn't go for the Boodles and Galopin Des Champs is a bet for the CGC. As for Ireland, Dublin and the Irish per se, i don't want to be deemed as fawning towards them, but i've mentioned before my fond affection for all three, even though i'm not a regular visitor, the extent of my visits are once in Shannon and 3 occasions in the capital. Friendly and helpful people, good to talk with and plenty of banter. I've lived and worked in many countries, Sweden being by far the best (taking everything into consideration) but i would love the chance to work in Dublin, sadly there isn't an aerospace industry there. On to racing this afternoon, when i went through the RP last night, i thought the Allegorie De Vassy was a lay (Naas 3.40) and this one could be my first PL lay post of 2024 if odds remain around 2/1. Another potential, but riskier lay is Charlatan (6.00 Wolverhampton). I think Shishkin will win in what is basically at match at Newbury (2.05) but i can't trust him at odds-on. If there is a shortie to back, the dual CD winner Inch House is a tentative selection (Newbury 3.50). A lightly raced, improving novice chaser who was going for a hat trick at Cheltenham LTO where a couple of errors let him down. Has a tendency to hang left at times, but it hasn't stopped him winning and the course will not be an issue. Mind you, it's not one of my favourite stables. More later. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. | ||||||||
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Thank you ANDREW
G/L | ||||||||
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Glad you had a lovely weekend Andrew, shame about losing overall but as you say take it on the chin, having too much faith in one horse as with MN is rarely a good idea imo as we all know, horses aren't machines and have off days like we do, but can skewer your profits and put a dampener on your weekend.
What i thought was quite interesting on the morning show today was Megan Nicholls selection as bet of the day, (didn't mention it at all), but picked Noasgreatrainbow in the NHF race trained by Harry Derham where her Dad trains the Fav Histrionic. | ||||||||
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Stewarts Rise
Thanks. What you stated is correct, but there are occasions when i go to racing with one horse in mind, the typical Enable, Constitution Hill or Blue Rose Cen types for example, although this wasn't the scenario at Leopardstown, i thought at least 3 runners looked good on paper. Where i went wrong was the staking plan and lumping on Marine National as a starter, before the main course of El Fabiolo and State Man the following day. I don't want to sound blasé about the 1K loss, it's a decent sum of money, but it didn't spoil the weekend. I've often stated, when i place a bet, its lost until its won, i feel this is the best way to treat betting. Good company, good food, a few drinks, Arsenal v Liverpool on TV with a carvery meal in the Clayton hotel and a fun Saturday night as well, so not all bad. Second Again Thanks. No KLM issues this time, in fact they have been almost punctual in recent months. I checked my KLM/AF frequent flyer record earlier, between September 2022 and October 2023 i had 8 cancellations, each with compensation vouchers (i take the flights, not the cash) but none since. Unfortunately weather conditions don't count for compensation, only hotels and meal etc. I also had one with Easy Jet in 2022. Punchestown I met wingerwanger on course, but no painting the town Red later. | ||||||||
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Lay Post
Naas 3.40 - Allegorie De Vassy A French bred, 7 year old French mare trained by Willie Mullins at Closutton, County Carlow. Consistent since arriving from France as a four times raced maiden with subsequent form figures of 1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-2, a trio of these in graded 2/3 company. Dropping in trip to 16f this afternoon, but has never run over this short a distance, the closest was 17f and 17.5f in France. Never run on an Irish left handed track in 8 races, although was runner-up in the PP mares chase at Cheltenham last year. Never run at Naas. Well beaten (33L) by Riviere D'etel at Fairyhouse LTO, although jumping to the right (not for the first time) didn't help. I think she will get much closer later as she's better in at the weights, but still conceding 2lb and even more with 8lb to Maskada who is on the same 151 rating. A decent field for the class and whilst only 5 runners, none of them can be completely discounted. I rarely lay the stable or owners runners as i'm a big fan, but i don't think she will be winning this afternoon. Lay @ 3.60 Good luck | ||||||||
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too many 'French' there (typing on a train)
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Thank you ANDREW
G/L | ||||||||
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Good luck Andrew.
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Much to good for them Andrew, never mind.
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but i would love the chance to work in Dublin, sadly there isn't an aerospace industry there
------------------- 90% of the World's Aircraft leasing business done in a 2KM Sq area in the middle of Dublin City. | ||||||||
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Good afternoon Guys,
Not a good start to the new thread, but when she nearly jumped into the wing early on, i was feeling good with the lay selection. PT gave her time to settle and even at the 2nd last she was travelling well and as SR mentioned, far too good for them in the end. Thanks Stewart. 2024 Lay P/L Status
Punchestown Leasing is not my area of expertise; there are not many AEW&C, or special mission aircraft projects in Europe, never mind Dublin. | ||||||||
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What i thought was quite interesting on the morning show today was Megan Nicholls selection as bet of the day, (didn't mention it at all), but picked Noasgreatrainbow in the NHF race trained by Harry Derham where her Dad trains the Fav Histrionic.
Just btn but traded under 1.5, Megan knew her Dads fav wasn't winning. | ||||||||
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Yes good spot that stew
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