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wingerwanger
19 Nov 23 16:20
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 184 | Blogger: wingerwanger's blog
https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/simon-nott-betting-blog-cheltenham-sunday-2/
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Report the dealer November 19, 2023 4:44 PM GMT
Cheers for posting
Report ronnie rails November 19, 2023 4:57 PM GMT
Simon as always a good read I can see why  plenty pitches are available  just had an email from bf send more funds.
Ronnie.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 19, 2023 8:23 PM GMT
The Neville Porter firm can't understand why they aren't taking any money. Baffling.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 19, 2023 8:24 PM GMT
While Kalooki Racing wonder why they can indeed take money, yet not make a profit.
Report GLASGOWCALLING November 19, 2023 9:49 PM GMT
Offering 1/4 a 4/9 poke !!!  No wonder he has a Gamble Aware notice on his joint. WAC.
Report punchestown November 19, 2023 9:55 PM GMT
Probably had enough bets taken already on the fav so just did what he did.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 19, 2023 10:19 PM GMT
The thing is, even Kalooki Racing are betting to 109%. They're not exactly giving it away.

But Neville Porter is betting to 120%.

"But I'm offering each way, bonnie lad," he'd say. Well. yes. But 1/5 the odds two places. The place book comes to 215%!
Report seaside November 20, 2023 10:59 AM GMT
Interesting read

Good posts Screaming.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 8:10 AM GMT
So 637 views and not one sharp mind spotted the fact the place book was 107 not 215% ,the porter firm offered a choice to punters who wanted to bet each way when the tote the betting offices and most other bookmakers didn’t

As I say sharp minds
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 26, 2023 8:43 AM GMT
Well, 215% is how a 2-place book is calculated here, on the exchange, so that's how I presented it. But if you want to halve that figure and call it 107.5%, fair enough.

Still doesn't take away from the fact that Porter was asking punters to bet into a 120% win book in order to access that "107%" place book. He wasn't betting place-only.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 8:47 AM GMT
A punter who wants win only can go next door he provided a choice ,normally punters are complaining about all the books been the same.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 26, 2023 9:03 AM GMT
But he could have gone exactly the same prices as the win-only board next door, and still had a profitable place book at 1/5 the odds 1,2.

4/11, 7/2, 12/1 and 16/1 would have given him a place book of 205% (or 102%, as you would put it). Still overbroke.

Instead he went 1/4, 3/1, 12/1, 13/1 and didn't appear to be taking very much.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 26, 2023 9:07 AM GMT
Sorry. I meant NOT overbroke.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 9:21 AM GMT
From what I’ve heard screaming none of the books were taking very much at Cheltenham on Sunday and the other two days were not much better .
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 26, 2023 9:27 AM GMT
It was so depressing looking at that scene in Cheltenham Tatts, jimnast. All the racegoers were in the Members enclosure or around the paddock.

Got to leave for soggy, foggy Exeter now. Have a good day.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 9:37 AM GMT
Enjoy Exeter and good luck screaming
Report Manoleeds November 26, 2023 11:44 AM GMT
I know how to calculate the win book percentage -but how do you do it for the place book so that you can arrive at 215% and 107.5% and both be right, please?
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 12:06 PM GMT
To be honest manoleeds I don’t know but I knew 215 was wrong so yesterday at haydock I asked a bookmaker to put that show in his computer came up with the place figures.

Like you I know how to calculate a win book but not a place book

Prior to the computer telling bookmakers the place figures they hadn’t got a clue how bad 1st 4 1/4 was in a 16 runner handicap
Report GLASGOWCALLING November 26, 2023 1:15 PM GMT
Seems a bit like smoke and mirrors to me, you may well be right Jimnast and our friendly bookmaker is simply offering more choice, but how many racegoers would back e/w in a 4 runner race ?

Also as Manoleeds pointed out how many folk oncourse would know how to work out the % of each ??, my guess be 1% if you are lucky.  why not just keep things simple and bet to win only and get your wage by laying back on here for a workable profit.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 1:27 PM GMT
How many punters on course want to bet 4s on glasgow I would be pretty sure most would sooner bet 12/1 each way in a 4 runner race.
Report longbridge November 26, 2023 1:39 PM GMT
jimnast

"Like you I know how to calculate a win book but not a place book"

Take the Win odds and the EW Terms, work out the Place odds, convert to decimal if you haven't done so already, then do just like you'd do with a Win book and sum the reciprocals?  Apologies if I am missing something.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 1:52 PM GMT
I mean the total place book longbridge
Report Manoleeds November 26, 2023 1:53 PM GMT
This doesn't quite answer the question but I found it interesting https://www.geegeez.co.uk/money-without-work-5-bookmaker-concessions-each-wa...
Report ribero1 November 26, 2023 2:18 PM GMT
Surely the story here was that it was basically a non event to bet on (like a lot of these premier races) so Neville put a show up for the sake of it and if anyone was daft enough to have a bet good luck to them.
Report longbridge November 26, 2023 2:21 PM GMT
so did I jimnast.  maybe I'm missing something?  I cannot see the Neville Porter prices people are referring to, but taking the SS prices from the top of the article as a worked example

(this is where I risk being shot down by half the forum)

(sorry, forum will mess with the formatting):

The Kemble Brewery    5/4
Tellherthename    7/4
Innatendue    5/1
Cannock Park    11/1
Tedley    25/1
Sea Invasion    40/1
Ticking Tom Bomb    50/1
Zeeband    50/1

one-fifth the odds on each (divide the fractional by 5 and add 1) is

The Kemble Brewery 1.25
Tellherthename 1.35
Innatendue 2.0
Cannock Park 3.2
Tedley 6.0
Sea Invasion 9.0
Ticking Tom Bomb 11.0
Zeeband 11.0

the reciprocals of all those are

0.80
0.74
0.50
0.31
0.17
0.11
0.09
0.09

which sums to 2.81 for a 281% place book on a 3 TBP race?
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 2:26 PM GMT
Longbridge

The show is at the start of this thread
Report longbridge November 26, 2023 3:18 PM GMT
jimnast - thanks

then, on the same basis

Win book

Jonbon    1/4
Edwardstone    3/1
E du G    12/1
Nube Negra    13/1


Corresponding decimal place odds at 1/5th

Jonbon    1.05
Edwardstone    1.60
E du G    3.40
Nube Negra    3.60

reciprocals as implied probabilities

Jonbon    0.95
Edwardstone    0.63
E du G    0.29
Nube Negra    0.28

sums to 2.15 for a 215% place book
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 3:27 PM GMT
Thank you longbridge something learned for me today

There’s no point in getting older if your not going to get any wiser
Report ronnie rails November 26, 2023 3:38 PM GMT
Neville has done well since he used to own Spennymoor  dog over 30 years ago.
Ronnie.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 3:44 PM GMT
Hello ronnie hope your well

Back in 1989 John Stubbs did an article on him in the sporting life in the ringlets section,you would have thought the racing post could have done something like that but I suppose the online bookmakers are there paymasters so they are puppets to them.
Report ronnie rails November 26, 2023 3:56 PM GMT
Jimnast.
Not to bad thank you glad to say back at work  this week.the bad news is I think I told you at York  the mother  in law has got allzimers  and its getting  worse Horrible  but we will NOT put her in a home. We were  actually  down the hospital  last night  with her .very  very  hard on us but she is NOT GOING  IN A HOME.
Report jimnast November 26, 2023 4:19 PM GMT
Oh dear ronnie sorry to hear that
Report 1st time poster November 26, 2023 4:32 PM GMT
sad times ronnie
we were in same postion 6 months ago,home was a no,no but when you look after them at home like we did ,and theyve had enough ,dementia doesnt kill them,but they refuse food,water,etc, and eventualy body gives up,my mam lasted about 3 months but was blessed relief for all concerned when she passed about 4 months back
good luck,hope it goes ok for you all
horrible disease for all involved
Report longbridge November 26, 2023 4:34 PM GMT
jimnast - you're welcome
Report longbridge November 26, 2023 4:35 PM GMT
ronnie - as ever, you are a gentlemen.  sorry to hear your news, all the best with caring for your mother-in-law.
Report ronnie rails November 26, 2023 4:35 PM GMT
Jimnast .
Thank you for your  very kind words .re John  Stubbs the days of the huddle only do 20 odd  days a year know  can I ask is the old sp reporter Jon Broadway  still about  an absolute  gentleman  used  to look after me when I stayed  over at Ayr.
Report ronnie rails November 26, 2023 4:43 PM GMT
Longridge.
Thank you for  your  very  kind words we put the mother  in law  in rest bight  over the last 2 years  for 7 days HORRIBLE.as I said very hard but she is not going  in a home.
Report ronnie rails November 26, 2023 5:02 PM GMT
1st TP
Just saw your  post.
Thank you.
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