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28 Jul 23 17:59
Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 26,729 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
highly competitive field line up in  what should be a cracker of a race , auguste rodin winner of 2 derbys and still progressing looks like going off fav and should go close ,but wasnt overly impressive at the curragh and this looks a better race and around 3/1 i will pass . hukum seems to be getting better and better and put up a very good performance in last seasons coronation cup beating pyledriver that puts him right in the mix here . emily upjohn has strong form and should go well ,plenty with chances and i like  aidens so called 2nd string luxembourg who has good form and although beaten at royal ascot by mostadahf he did a lot of the donkey work and that one could be something special over 10f . the step up to 12f could be right up luxembourgs street ,id run a line through his arc run as it was inconclusive down to the going ,ryan rides auguste rodin and the 3yo allowance could prove decisive but luxembourg is around 16/1 and some firms going 4 places ew luxembourg only has 2 pound to find with the top rated and a pound to find with his stablemate auguste rodin.
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Report windsor knot July 28, 2023 6:22 PM BST
yep, great race . nice to see it back where it belongs . ive done luxembourg ew first 4 ... so thats 5th booked then .
Report FOYLESWAR July 28, 2023 6:40 PM BST
ew 4 places b365 slysand betvictor expect a few more may  follow suit tommoz !
Report Cider July 28, 2023 9:07 PM BST
So much hinges on AOB's plans (as so often), as one can only see the pace of the race dictated by his runners. Do they push on or allow Luxembourg to dictate things. You would think that the primary runner of theirs on paper wants a decent pace. I suspect they will try and give Luxembourg a lead at the front, and have the hedge of AR being held up a bit further off it, especially from the respective draws.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps July 28, 2023 9:16 PM BST
anywon of 7 cud win for me.
Report sparrow July 28, 2023 9:34 PM BST
Great renewal this year and I shall back Westover in the place market.
Report saxon farm July 28, 2023 9:48 PM BST
Seldom I put a selection up on here….but I’m very keen on Auguste Rodin and have had a strong bet.
Report acey deucy July 28, 2023 10:18 PM BST
Far from confident but backing A.R for the Win and Westover each way.
Report windsor knot July 28, 2023 11:24 PM BST
and the last few posts have supported what we think . we dont know , we have all pitched in and we all await the race with real excitement . not always been the case with so called group 1 contests ,  so win or lose lets all  enjoy !!!!..apologies to the racing league .
Report barstool July 28, 2023 11:28 PM BST
My money is on Alf's and Wilf's horse.
Report duffy July 29, 2023 6:15 AM BST
I think this years Coronation Cup is the key race, if it's anything less than a real test then EU can beat them with her turn of foot, but if it turns into a slog that is highly possible then Westover who I think is under appreciated in the market could out stay them all.
Report FOYLESWAR July 29, 2023 8:42 AM BST
a few not mentioned in the original  write up, king of steel ,i seem to remember putting this one up for the dante at a big price  ew ,some problem at the start and he didnt run ,of course i didnt back him for the derby and he ran a massive race to be 2nd mighta went too early that day and on that form there is very little between him and auguste r. you have to respect pyledriver in his bid for the double often underated  he is gutsey classey  will battle and could go close again here . westover is also a derby winner has good form and was an easy winner in france last time also has a good chance . i have also had a small bet ante post  dueville legend mainly because 40/1 looked too big midweek with the possibility of a fair few coming out ,that has not happened but has an outside chance . in summing up you wouldnt be suprised if any of the top 7 or 8 won it .
Report brians July 29, 2023 8:45 AM BST
Pyledriver to beat emily for me . Rev forecast.
Report brians July 29, 2023 8:47 AM BST
Rev f/cast 36/1 the above.
Report brigust1 July 29, 2023 8:59 AM BST
Much publicised but a disappointing race for me. I can't have the fav after watching him in Ireland, and as a result King of Steel. I can't have Emily because of last year, ditto Westover, I can't have Luxembourg because Moore rides the fav and I can't have the rags. So I am left with Hukum and Pyledriver so a small wager on both.
Report The Dragon July 29, 2023 9:03 AM BST
I have backed the fav
Report second again July 29, 2023 9:14 AM BST
Anything could win it but I have done Deauville Legend EW 4 places@ 28/1.I backed Westover at a big price in last years Derby and at a short price in this last year so will throw the TV out the window if he winsLaugh
Report Trusty July 29, 2023 9:21 AM BST
The only one doing first four is Slybet and good luck if you can get anything above £2 on with them. Probably the most disgusting bookmaker going and not a dickie bird said about their practices by the TV gravy train lot - specially Chapman & Chamberlain. Trouts well in.
Report Life-Lucky July 29, 2023 10:03 AM BST
Point Lonsdale for me. AoB usually gets one of his longshots in the frame. Kirby up, interesting profile, likes it soft. Very tricky race, I hope Westover runs well. GL all
Report airto July 29, 2023 10:09 AM BST
What a great race, and such a pleasant change to see so many of the "big guns" standing their ground. No idea who will win, but my pin says Westover EW is overpriced.
Report CagliariG July 29, 2023 11:02 AM BST
Unlike you to get your ratings skewed Foyles,Luxembourg may only have 2lbs to find on ratings with Pyledriver but he is giving 11lbs to the fav so based on that a 1lb ratings difference is a huge ask. I realise you mentioned the wfaa maybe proving decisive so maybe i'm reading you wrong?

It won't be a big bet race for me and I think you may be on the money with the wfaa and in this respect I think King Of Steel is being overlooked in comparison with the fav,the 3lb difference between them underestimates KOS I believe.Not impressed by the fav lto and think KOS the more likely to step up here and gain a higher rating.

As everyone seems to agree it is wide open and the classic form is going to be severely tested so good luck whatever your bets.
Report CagliariG July 29, 2023 11:42 AM BST
Fav now 2/1 mostly,KOS 11/2,not that much between them to justify the difference imo.
Report brians July 29, 2023 12:01 PM BST
Looking at the stats , they dont favour 3 yr olds. 8 winners out of last 12 being older. The Irish have not won in the last 7 years suggesting this is not a big target for them. You need a rating of 118 or higher ( which is all but the three outsiders ) and horses who ran well in the eclipse and hardwicke stakes generally run well. ( Pyledriver and Emily Upjohn)
Favs and 2nd favs have won 6 out of the last seven so a shock seems off the cards . Emily , KOSteel or Hukum could finish up second favs so I guess it points to Emily and Hukum as 4 and 6 yr olds. The fav being 3.
The only thing putting me off Hukum is that 11/12 previous winners had a run in the last 50 days. Hukum ran 65 days ago.
So we only have Emily left.with a jockey and trainer who have won 3 out of the last six runnings ( ok given it was with the same horse. )
Good luck all.
Report Tattcorner July 29, 2023 12:05 PM BST
I'll row in with you Foyles with a small wager...£2.08 e/w Luxembourg @ 16/1 Sky.
Report Try My Best July 29, 2023 12:10 PM BST
Since 1951 3 year olds have just shaded it over the older horses. Think the draw will play a significant part in this
Report brians July 29, 2023 12:28 PM BST
You could be right Trymybest, I would certainly want my horse challenging down he outside at Ascot but not drawn too wide if that makes sense. As for 3 yr old stats I only look at the last 12 years as the world in the fifties was a very different one from the one today, e,g they didnt send Derby winners to stud after a few races !
Report Dr Crippen July 29, 2023 12:33 PM BST
Interesting stats from brians.
Report Callisto-moon July 29, 2023 12:46 PM BST
whats the best draw?
Report acey deucy July 29, 2023 12:52 PM BST
I mean Pyledriver is an absolute Legend but i cant back him because i dont like the Trainer....Funny old game.Laugh
Report EastLower Gooner July 29, 2023 1:16 PM BST
Made my mind up a while ago that I was going with an older horse for this and originally I was sweet on Simca Mille but they took him out. They even booked Soumy for the ride.

Anyways went for Westover eachway in the end.

I think they’ll go a good clip in here and he can get sweet tow into the race. Hornby (imo) needs to be brave on him and kick for home as soon as in the straight because I feel he’s a very strong stayer at the trip. No need to be cute here. Put this lot to the test and they we’ll see what’s what at the end.

3 runs this year have all been reasonable…

No shame finishing 2nd the Equinox

Seemed like he was one paced at Epsom but he was also unbalanced but he still kept on well once he got balanced again…maybe Epsom isn’t his track.

And a routine win last time at Saint Cloud…won’t find much easier G1 wins this year but routine nevertheless.

He’ll be ready for a career best today (which is what’s required).

Cherry on top is the stable form…Ralph is 14 from 33 in the last 2 weeks and the last 11 runners finished 12156121101

The 5,6, and 0 were two 33/1 shots and a 22/1 so he’s on fire.
Report EastLower Gooner July 29, 2023 1:20 PM BST
Ps Yes I am worried I may have backed the wrong older horse but whatever lol
Report brians July 29, 2023 1:45 PM BST
Report impossible123 July 29, 2023 1:45 PM BST
On his last showing I cannot have Auguste Rodin. I'll plumb for Luxembourg (back to 12f) the horse that missed several gigs last season eg Epsom Derby courtesy of his trainer's obsession with the 2000G where he was injured.

Luxembourg back over 12f with /Emily Upjohn (my boogie horse) and King Of Steel as bridesmaids; Auguste Rodin will have his day in the sun probably in the Irish Champion Stakes.

Sean Levey is riding for Ballydoyle. I think he'd have won the Top jockey prize in the previous Racing League competition had he not been stood down for a positive test, and rescinded just recently. The prize for top jockey for £20k; he was leading coming into the last.
Report brians July 29, 2023 1:46 PM BST
Callisto, in the recent past high draws have been better than middle or low in group ones. Mainly smaller fields. I think low drawn horses tend to lead and are sitting ducks in the straight. Just my opinion.
Report Whippin Piccadilly July 29, 2023 1:47 PM BST
Hukum for me here. Excellent comeback win over what I consider the most impressive Derby winner for some time. The money around for Desert Crown tells me he was more than ready for the race at Sandown. But for me Hukum looked the winner someway out that day and he would have a been a very unlucky loser if Jim hadn't got him out in time.

Trip, track and going all spot on (hope it stays on the softish side of good) I get a feeling this lad is now at his peak and he's won't be the first Sea the Stars to get better with age. With the going now drying out, I've had something on Plyedriver too. 

Looks a special race on paper, really looking forward to it.
Report penzance July 29, 2023 1:49 PM BST
Thought after the Derby King Of Steel would beat Auguste Rodin if they
met again.Drifted to a nice price on here now 7s & with the books @11/2.
Do reckon this is between the Derby 1-2 especially with weights, King Of
Steel to overturn the Epsom form.
Report SlippyBlue July 29, 2023 1:54 PM BST
I keep getting drawn to Emily Upjohn, win & 4p.
Report impossible123 July 29, 2023 1:58 PM BST
'SlippyBlue', I think she wins for you; I've not backed her today. Each time I did she'd lost including the Epsom Oaks.
Report Dr Crippen July 29, 2023 2:04 PM BST
I can't see any reason why KOS should beat AR today. Unless AR flopps.

After getting beaten at Epsom KOS went for an easier Group 2. While the winner AR  went on to win another G1 Derby.
Report Storm Alert July 29, 2023 2:08 PM BST
Best King George & Queen Elizabeth for years and really looking forward to today's race. Bet365 appear to be 3 places now. Slybet offering 4 places and for my two each way bets on Pyledriver & Hukum prices are ok. Most years the classic generation need to be up to scratch to beat the older horses and can't help thinking the ground might be a bit too soft for either of them today. Emily Upjohn I hope not but I suppose there is the Dettori final win the race factor Whoops.
Report Dr Crippen July 29, 2023 2:16 PM BST
Ratings are very close. But there's always the chance the younger horses haven't finished improving.

It's a hard race for me to feel confident about any of them.
Report impossible123 July 29, 2023 2:19 PM BST
The ground is tacky according to the jockeys who rode in the 1st which is not ideal for Auguste Rodin (AR), I believe; AR was overlooked in the Deby, but not today. I think he's running for the bookies today though.
Report Dr Crippen July 29, 2023 2:23 PM BST
There are other reasons for not liking Auguste Rodin. But that's not to say it won't win.
Report Ibrahima Sonko July 29, 2023 2:28 PM BST
Pyledriver ew for me. & a c/t/c 7-8-9

good luck
Report impossible123 July 29, 2023 2:28 PM BST
No value in AR. Also, he was labourious in his final race.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! July 29, 2023 3:29 PM BST
Tabor worried about the soft ground
Report Mat22 July 29, 2023 3:30 PM BST
Auguste Rodin For me in a Sensational King George. His last 3 furlongs in a very strange race at the Curragh reads well in my book. very good fractions and Ryan Reported there was plenty left in the Tank.
They know where they stand with Emily with Paddington and she is back to 1m4 which is a positive move, but i still think The Arc is where she will run her biggest race of the year.
All Aboard With Rodin Cool
Report Cider July 29, 2023 3:30 PM BST
Luxembourg turning away Bay Bridge earlier in the season is up there with any form in this race, he should not get the pace pressure he faced at RA, and the jockey bookings are affecting the market. Well worth another spin over 12f, just hope he is not there just to set up the race for the jolly!
Report sparrow July 29, 2023 3:32 PM BST
Changed my mind to end up backing Emily Upjohn.
Report sageform July 29, 2023 3:34 PM BST
Money for all of the first 6 in the betting at various stages. Should be a cracker. King of Troy and Hukum for me.
Report N-east Correspondent July 29, 2023 3:35 PM BST
Pyledriver and Hukum the two overpriced and ones of interest for me here
but both carry risk in a red-hot renewal not least is Pyledriver better on a firmer surface
and Hukum can throw in a below average performance just as easily as scorching home in the Coronation
fascinating race and one to saviour

gl chaps
Report alun2005 July 29, 2023 3:39 PM BST
Ken's paddock pick is the fav.

Something I never thought I'd ever write.
Report impossible123 July 29, 2023 3:39 PM BST
No bet for me. Just a watching brief.
Report CagliariG July 29, 2023 3:40 PM BST
Good luck sage with King Of Troy (ire) 21 years young and USA 31!!Wink
Report ashleigh July 29, 2023 3:41 PM BST
backed Emily Upjohn and Hukum.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 29, 2023 3:42 PM BST
Fascinating race, totally on fence here.
Report Ibrahima Sonko July 29, 2023 3:44 PM BST
the old boys showed em, well done winners.
Report brians July 29, 2023 3:45 PM BST
Older horses prevail. Well done Hukum backers
Report EastLower Gooner July 29, 2023 3:45 PM BST
Ouch crossbar.

Wd hukum backers
Report FOYLESWAR July 29, 2023 3:46 PM BST
still getting better the winner hukum fook em well done winners ,dont know if my 4 places ew still stands wi b365
Report impossible123 July 29, 2023 3:46 PM BST
AR has not run his race or something is amiss with him. King Of Steel had every chance, but could only manage third. Retirement for Auguste Rodin?
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! July 29, 2023 3:46 PM BST
Report SlippyBlue July 29, 2023 3:47 PM BST
Well done it you were on Hukum, battled on extremely gamely.
Report alun2005 July 29, 2023 3:48 PM BST
Does Ken P lose his job now after what can only be described as a catastrophic paddock pick?
Report N-east Correspondent July 29, 2023 3:48 PM BST
3yo's found wanting there

had Hukum ew but wouldnt have minded Hornby winning there on Westover
imo he deserves a break
Report Mat22 July 29, 2023 3:49 PM BST
Sheik Hisa must be enjoying this game Cool
Fav put in a Stinker.....see what comes to light.
WD Hukum Backers.
Report brians July 29, 2023 3:49 PM BST
Jamie said they will talk about this race in fifty years ! ……..err …not really.
Report sageform July 29, 2023 3:49 PM BST
First and third. Wrong one won money wise but super race to watch. What a mare Aghareed must be.
Report Manoleeds July 29, 2023 3:50 PM BST

Jul 29, 2023 -- 3:14AM, second again wrote:

Anything could win it but I have done Deauville Legend EW 4 places@ 28/1.I backed Westover at a big price in last years Derby and at a short price in this last year so will throw the TV out the window if he wins

You nearly needed a new TV

Report penzance July 29, 2023 3:51 PM BST
Cracking duel.
Report MJK July 29, 2023 3:51 PM BST

Jul 29, 2023 -- 9:48AM, N-east Correspondent wrote:

3yo's found wanting therehad Hukum ew but wouldnt have minded Hornby winning there on Westoverimo he deserves a break

Yeah a few years break

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- July 29, 2023 3:51 PM BST
King of steel doesn't appear to stay 1 mile 4
at top level.

Hukum battled well and they were well strung out.

AR didn't look 100% in Irish Derby, was well
backed today ( by who?) might need a rest.
Report Cider July 29, 2023 3:51 PM BST
AOB's lot were the key, looked like a dawdle to the eye, or else Westover wins easily. Must be one of the unluckiest horses in racing!
Report sageform July 29, 2023 3:53 PM BST
Not sure about 50 years but that was almost a rerun of Grundy and Bustino and that stays in the memory of anyone who saw it. The first 2 had seriously hard races so time will tell how they get over it. I still think that King of Steel is going to improve some more as he was having only his fifth race there and only gave best in the last furlong.
Report FOYLESWAR July 29, 2023 3:54 PM BST
my  internet a bit dodgy  but looks like b365 have honoured the ew 4 places on luxembourgHappy
Report Cider July 29, 2023 3:55 PM BST
Very scrappy race though, sageform.
Report Whippin Piccadilly July 29, 2023 3:55 PM BST
Best on the forum bar none! Grin

Maybe Hukum will now be given the credit he deserves? Love
Report differentdrum July 29, 2023 3:55 PM BST
These days everything is over hyped. There wasn't a great horse in that race.

It's not as if Auguste Rodin hasn't run badly before. He was absolute pathetic in the Guineas with no excuse. For all the hype coming out of Ballydoyle the reality is he has been fortunate to win two soft Classics.

Having already backed Hukum, and Desert Crown for the Arc hopefully they at least make the race.
Report Whippin Piccadilly July 29, 2023 3:56 PM BST
Go away Victor!
Report second again July 29, 2023 3:58 PM BST
Well done any winners, onwards to Goodwood.
Report barstool July 29, 2023 3:58 PM BST
Winner always travelling best, had to come widest of all, stayed on well.

Best horse won.
Report Cider July 29, 2023 4:02 PM BST
It was like the good old times with the AOB rags forming a basketball type screen up top, allowing Luxembourg up the inside but he was never looking like going well enough to take advantage and win (even though that was how I hoped the the tactics would pan out). With the usual pullers pulling, it turned out to be a very scrappy race imo.
Report penzance July 29, 2023 4:02 PM BST
Yeh best horse on the day just doing Westover,no hard luck stories
Report CagliariG July 29, 2023 4:04 PM BST
VWD barstool,puts you on the podium as well!!Cool
Report Cider July 29, 2023 4:04 PM BST
Disagree there, Westover was pulling and saw a lot of daylight on the wing of the field. I feel like he was the best on the day, but of course pulling is his own fault.
Report barstool July 29, 2023 4:08 PM BST
Thanks Cag.

Nice result for me.
Report ElT July 29, 2023 4:12 PM BST
With Japan seemingly more interested to continue their Arc misery storyline than winning it with Equinox, this year seems between the top French three year olds.
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