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the wire
02 May 23 11:55
Date Joined: 10 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 587 | Blogger: the wire's blog
Not many tipping threads on here any more so here goes.  I had some success with these types of races last year and had a decent start again so will concentrate on those. 

Nottingham 16.10  Pink Carnation   at around 20/1  ew 4 places available

Lowest figure on official ratings but I'm hoping for some significant improvement this season as she was unraced as a two year old.  Has winning course form and was particularly impressive when winning a handicap on soft at Hamilton last season.  Ended last season by finishing in front of two of today's shorter priced rivals in a Listed race at Doncaster, although Misty Dancer was eased in the last furlong after looking likely to go close at one stage.
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Report Lampus May 2, 2023 12:02 PM BST
Thank you

Good Luck Happy
Report Jinxy1 May 2, 2023 1:26 PM BST
Good luck.
Report stewarts rise May 2, 2023 2:02 PM BST
Good luck The Wire, good to see someone having a go, why stop at G3 though, what about G1 and G2?
Report barstool May 2, 2023 2:23 PM BST
Good luck wire.

First run might find a few out, though still a tall order having to find a stone with six of them.

Crystal Caprice my own bet, for what that is worth.
Report the wire May 2, 2023 2:40 PM BST
Stewarts, I probably should put up some in Group 1s and 2s, it's just the slightly lower grades where I've been doing ok the last couple of flat seasons. Thanks all for your messages, I'm hoping doing this will help concentrate the mind further when going through the race.
Report barstool May 2, 2023 4:16 PM BST
Hard luck wire, put up a tremendous performance. You deserve a bit more than just the place money.
Report the wire May 2, 2023 4:20 PM BST
I won a little bit on the ew bet and laid the win on the exchange at a bit more than evens so another small win.  Three races at Ascot tomorrow but not too enticing at first glance.
Report Jinxy1 May 2, 2023 4:22 PM BST
Well done, lovely price for place money.
Report the wire May 2, 2023 4:23 PM BST
Thankyou, an encouraging start.
Report the wire May 3, 2023 11:27 AM BST
Ascot 16.25  Cash  5/1

Around this time last year Cash finished a short head behind Westover over 10f at Sandown. He then had a setback and his connections were talking of aiming at the QE2. He didn't make his comeback until a third of four over 8f at Kempton in November when he was unable to quicken well enough off a slow pace and wasn't given a hard race.  Today he gets his chance over the Ascot mile trip in a Listed contest rather than the Group One they had been contemplating.  5/1 seems a fair enough price to find out if he is as good as connections are hoping.
Report the wire May 5, 2023 12:06 PM BST
Time Lock is a short price for the Listed fillies race at Goodwood this afternoon and last season's form looks very solid. The main downside is the stable form, it's a while since they had a winner and five of their last seven runners have been beaten at odds of 3-1 or shorter.

Goodwood 14.05   Thanks Monica  15/2  ew 4 places available

She took a while to find her form last season but ended it in good form with a 14f Listed race at Ascot against the colts just stretching her stamina.  She is likely to make the running so I'm hoping that she's fit enough to run her race first time out for a stable that is in good form. Out in front may be the best place to be as there are a lot in opposition who like to race just off the pace and there may be some trouble in running for some at this track if they stick to the far rail.

Evania 16/1 ew (14/1 4 places) is worth a saver. Another stable in good form, she makes her turf debut but I can't see any reason why that should be a problem. Her dam won a Group 2 over 10f at the Curragh.
Report the wire May 6, 2023 12:43 PM BST
I like to find something at double figure odds in fillies Listed races and I may regret ignoring Princess Shabnam today but I think she will find her form again on faster ground.

Queen Olly  14.15 Newmarket  7/1

Queen Olly was tried again over 7f in the Nell Gwyn and was no better at this trip than she was as a 2yo but she did travel pretty well for a long way and wasn't given a hard time once the winner sailed past her. First time tongue tie may help and all her 6f form last year reads well.  The two Dods runners are obvious dangers but maybe the penalties and lack of a recent run will make them beatable today. Queen Olly is one of two 3yo fillies in this race and that age group has won 4 of the last 5 runnings.

Live in the Dream  16.00 Newmarket Group 3, 14/1 ew 4 places available.

Still progressing. I never underestimate Ponte form and he won well there last time.
Report the wire May 17, 2023 10:29 AM BST
Four placed out of six so far so going to persevere but going up to a Group 2 today.

Azure Blue 15.00 York  10/1 4 places.

Her recent wins have been at Newmarket and she has been beaten on her only two runs at York. But her defeat here last season was due in large part to being drawn away from the early pace. Being drawn next to Creative Force should help with that today and also suit her running style as she probably prefers to be tucked in early on. I was a big fan of her trainer's Mabs Cross who was first tried at Group 2 level at a similar stage of her development and performed very creditably. I don't think Azure Blue would be running today if Mr. Dods thought she would be out of her depth whatever the ratings may say.
Report stewarts rise May 17, 2023 11:06 AM BST
Good luck The Wire, missed your more recent posts as been busy with other things, Azure Blue won well last time and agree has an EW chance today.
Report Jinxy1 May 17, 2023 12:02 PM BST
Good luck.
Report brians May 17, 2023 3:03 PM BST
Boom wd !
Report stewarts rise May 17, 2023 3:05 PM BST
Great stuff The Wire, big improver and a nice priced winner.
Report bustino May 17, 2023 3:13 PM BST
Very well done.......nice selection........good tread.......owe u a drink
Report the wire May 17, 2023 3:18 PM BST
Thanks all.
Report know all May 17, 2023 3:36 PM BST
york 3-35 soul sister and lambada fillies and small bets and only race for me today
Report know all May 17, 2023 3:55 PM BST
off 3-36 race wasnt off when posted i also was putting in posting gosden had 6 from the last 12 in this race but race was off and didnt press button didnt realize the time, will have the one or 2 races tomorrow my game is these group and listed races, think i will retire posting as it wont get better lol
Report FOYLESWAR May 17, 2023 3:59 PM BST
well done the wire great call !
Report Jinxy1 May 17, 2023 4:08 PM BST
Excellent, well done.
Report bluenose7 May 17, 2023 7:36 PM BST
Wire  Cool
Report the wire May 17, 2023 11:12 PM BST
well done know all, soul sister 18/1
Report know all May 18, 2023 1:42 PM BST
thanks wire, dante looks hard obrien usually leaves em for the derby race so ive nowt in that but will enjoy the race, but one race i used to have a edge was 1-50 illusionist 9/1 ew and 2-25 state occasion 10/1 saver on stay 6/1 alert, hard races and with york its like that its either all run well or nothing
Report the wire May 19, 2023 11:52 AM BST
One at a bit more speculative price today

Glenlaurel  14.25 York,  33/1 ew or 23/1 4 places available.

Has been kept to 6f so far but the step up to a mile might bring some improvement on breeding. She made a nice debut as a 2yo at Thirsk and then disappointed when turned out quickly at Royal Ascot. She pulled a bit too hard early on there and was not given a hard time once her chance had gone. It was good to firm that day and again today but I'm hoping the quick turnout was the excuse rather than the ground conditions. After a suitable break she then appeared at York in the Lowther, a Group 2, again over 6f where she was keeping on and finished in the pack but close behind such decent fillies as Mawj and Dramatised. Her Listed 4th place on her only run this season was similar but again I would look on it as a good run as I'm sure the winner of that race is a very good all-weather performer. Kevin Ryan has already had some winners at York this week, another plus.

For those who like stats/trends only 2 of the last 17 winners of this race have had 2 runs or less and only 4 of 17 had won last time out. Only back to 2005 shown on ATR website, I'm not just picking 17 to suit my case, but I think it does demonstrate how many fail to build on early promise. 6 of today's opposition won last time out and none of those have had more than 2 outings.
Report the wire May 19, 2023 11:54 AM BST
Sorry, slow typist, 28/1 best now I think.
Report Tattcorner May 19, 2023 12:28 PM BST
Good luck wire...B365 go 19/1 for the 4 places.
You and Foyleswar have the same ethos...going for the nice prices with good write-ups.
George B of course, not afraid to have a go at a biggie.
Report the wire May 25, 2023 9:54 AM BST
Hackman 18.42 Sandown  15/2 4 places available

Has been away smartly both starts and with this jockey. Drawn in 1 which has been a big advantage in this race recently but will need to be away well again. The horse has followed a similar path to the trainer's winner of this race in 2021, Ebro River, who went on to win a Group 1 as a two year old.  Has to turn the tables on Blue Storm from their Newmarket debuts. Hackman was acting green that day in the preliminaries and made the running into a head wind. With the extra experience of the comfortable Chester win I'm hoping Hackman is the one with more improvement to come. Price has shortened a bit overnight and this morning.
Report G Hall May 25, 2023 2:55 PM BST
Today we have Desert Crown making his reappearance in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown Park. Stoutey has had this race earmarked for his return for some time now.
Report the wire May 26, 2023 9:18 AM BST
Princess Shabnam  15.15 Haydock   14/1 ew available

She had the benefit of stall one last August at Ponte but Princess Shabnam really impressed me when seeing off an in form Gale Force Maya and the useful Chil Chil. Her rating shot up to 107 after that so it wasn't just me who was taken by her speedy performance that day. I never think that these ratings are the be all and end all but only Princess Shabnam and Gale Force Maya have ever achieved that figure, or even within 7lbs of it, of those running this afternoon. This is the first time she has been back on good to firm since but she showed up well for a long way in what was probably a slightly better race at Newmarket last time. In that race she was just a head behind Makarova who was making her seasonal debut but is a much shoreter price today. The favourite Get Ahead has done nearly all her racing at 5f and 9/4 seems a really short price to take on the unproven assumption she improves for the step up in trip.

I'm hoping that the better run last time and the return to faster ground brings back a return to that Pontefract form.
Report FOYLESWAR May 26, 2023 10:15 AM BST
good luck the wire!
Report the wire June 20, 2023 12:34 PM BST
Foxes Tales  17.35 Ascot

50/1 4 places or 45/1 5 places available.  Sixth in this race last year when held up from stall 16.  Except for the winner, who was drawn 11 and raced prominently, Foxes Tales was the only horse drawn in double figures to finish in the first eight and started 6/1 second favourite that day.  He had a break of over 200 days after a couple of below par performances and came back with two excellent runs on the all weather before a run on soft ground in a Group 2 at Chester which has to be ignored. The fact that David Probert rides the stable's other runner can even been seen as something in his favour as all his last seven wins or places have been for other jockeys including today's jockey who rode him in the Winter Derby.

Doesn't seem to have a going preference so a bit more rain wouldn't be a problem, won a handicap in good style at the royal meeting as a three year old on softer ground. There are a lot of similar types in the race and only one or two that you might call progressive, the prices on offer just seem too big.
Report the wire June 21, 2023 12:36 PM BST
Random Harvest 15.40 Ascot

20/1 available, slightly bigger prices on the each way market on here to small stakes at the moment.

Random Harvest progressed throughout last season and has continued her improvement this year with her second to Prosperous Voyage at Epsom last time being another career best. Will need further progress to turn the tables on the winner but the straight mile here will suit her better than Epsom as she had three good runs in handicaps here last summer. The stable is in pretty good form and she has always run well for Saffie Osborne.
I was also tempted by Rogue Millennium, another one who produced a personal best last time out. She is dropping back to a mile today for the first time and I think she was up against mainly more staying types that run at Haydock. If there's a pattern race for fillies and mares over 9 furlongs anywhere I would be very interested in her chances.
Report the wire June 21, 2023 3:54 PM BST
A bit frustrating, I just overthunk it. The forecast would have been handy.
Report Tiger Tiger June 21, 2023 3:58 PM BST
Excellent call.
Report the wire June 22, 2023 11:02 AM BST
Another attempt in a Group 2 today, this time one at a massive price.

Ghara 15.40 Ascot   150/1, 125/1 4 places available.

Although there's 17 runners only a few are paying a place outside the normal terms due to the shape of the market and the odds on fav.  As well as the fav the Gosdens also train my selection. They have an excellent record in the race and often have multiple entries. There are very few in the race that have won, or even ran, over this trip, Al Asifah included. With a larger than normal field for the race there ought to be plenty of pace and any lack of stamina found out.  Ghara has already ran well twice at this distance o thereabouts. I really liked the way she battled to get up and win her maiden at Yarmouth on fast ground and some more improvement could see us get a good run at a big price. You can't be too bullish about one at such long odds but the Royal meeting has produced plenty of winners and placed at triple figure odds recently so just hoping this might be another.
Report TheAnorak June 22, 2023 11:24 AM BST
The only 9F pattern race for fillies has been and gone - it's the Grp2 Dahlia Stakes run at the Guineas meeting.
Report the wire June 22, 2023 11:44 AM BST
Cheers Anorak, it turns out a mile was no problem anyway.
Report madhatters June 22, 2023 2:27 PM BST
Wd yester wire

GL today
Report the wire July 8, 2023 12:02 PM BST
Lady Hamana 13.50 Sandown  12/1 4 places

Had to wait for a gap to appear on the rails when winning a 3yo Listed race at Sandown three weeks ago.  This meant the well fancied Tajalla and the 108 rated Great State got first run but she made up the ground and won by a length and a quarter.  First time cheekpieces may have helped and the second did give the third a bump to stop his run near the line but Ladt Hamana was a decisive winner.  Three year olds have a good record in this race and being Australian bred she is around six months younger than our three year olds so I'm hoping for some more improvement. Was smartly away last time and they may try to make the running to avoid any bunching on the rails this time.
Report the wire July 28, 2023 10:52 AM BST
14 selections so far and just one winner at 10/1 (SP 12/1). But placed horses at 5/1, 15/2 twice, 14/1 and 20/1 twice gives a small profit when backed each way. 

Today I'm trying again with Pink Carnation 19.15 York  20/1 4 places,  22/1 3 places available.

Nearly won a Listed race from the front first time out this season and the only one who got anywhere near her that day, the winner One for Bobby, has gone on to frank the form. Just one run since when disappointing behind the in form Al Husn when maybe the tactics were a bit confused. She has shown her best form after a break so the 65 day rest since Ayr should be a plus. Unfortunately Danny Tudhope is on the other Clipper Logistics entry as she has always run best for him.
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