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09 Jan 23 11:41
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 7,333 | Blogger:'s blog
Good afternoon Guys from a chilly and blustery München,

Arrived back on Saturday afternoon after over 2 weeks in West London area (generally) visiting family and friends for the festive/NY season.

A new year, so a new thread. I don't need to explain the history behind my lay threads (regular readers obviously know it) but lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar. Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post-race and everything will be recorded on this thread only.

The threads are in decent profit overall (breakdown below). I haven't replicated my 2018 success (2 threads sandwiching a vacation) in latter years and increased workload is partly responsible for lack of selections from 2020 to present. From late April 2018 i was at home for 5 weeks, it was actually the catalyst that started my lay thread format. In 2021, there was sufficient profit (pre-commission) to buy a small size Milky Way Chocolate bar, albeit a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). As for last year, 2022, not a lot to be said with only a pathetic 18 selections and a poor run in summer, resulting in a yearly loss of £202.50. This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. Thankfully i recovered a little with 5 consecutive successes, but too little, too late. In 2023 i plan to concentrate more on PL lays.

Looking at my profit levels, if i was a racehorse, i would be labelled 'regressing' Laugh

Lay Threads Record

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425

Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Overall profit +£219

Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79

Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Overall profit +£0.50

Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Overall Loss -£202.50

Note the figures above are pre-commission and a minor change to 2019 (after checking the link on my previous thread posted by Mr Spreadsheet who kindly logs all my results. Apologies if there are other errors (unlikely) but they will certainly be rectified if discovered.

Good luck in 2023.

The 2022 thread can drop off the page now.
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews 2023 Lay Thread
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Report Brian November 19, 2023 4:22 PM GMT
Well done on Songino too.
Report November 21, 2023 10:38 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts.

PHS, no i didn't expect it. When i looked at the field earlier in the morning, i thought all 3 runners had questions to answer, albeit less so with the eventual winner. I certainly didn't see it as a match and the winner was 7 lb under his previous winning rating. When Yorksea downed tools at the start, it wasn't looking good and Up For Parol immediately went to odds of 1.45. The eventual winner was never far away and i was surprised the leader was matched at 1.11 IR. Found little when challenged and is probably best avoided until he shows better form.

My EW selection, Sonigino ran well to be 4th in the days big handicap (SP 11/1). A good day for me, although a few bob on Jonbon was the main source of profit.

Not much i fancy today, but in the opener at Fakenham, i've already layed the likely favourite Francina, even though he's the only runner with experience in the small field of 5. Runner-up on his only run, but there were 4 runners and 2 didn't finish the course. Related to several winners and from an in-form stable, probably the reasoning he was favourite that day, but his run was ordinary at best; in receipt of 7 lb, the winner had been beaten 67 L previously and winning time of the race was slow. Different going today and although Hereford is sharpish, it's not the Greyhound circuit that Fakenham is. A risky lay given lack of experience of course, but 7/4 is short enough.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report Lampus November 21, 2023 12:02 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW Happy
Report Mr_Spreadsheet November 22, 2023 9:08 AM GMT
well done Andrew
Report PHS November 25, 2023 12:43 PM GMT
Morning allWink
Report PHS November 25, 2023 12:44 PM GMT
Lol! I mean afters allGrin
Report December 9, 2023 8:50 AM GMT
Good morning Guys from a very overcast Heathrow (T4 Premier Inn).

It may be dismal looking, but nowhere near the weather conditions Bavaria (in particular München) experienced during the past week with 40 cms on snow last Saturday alone and night temperatures of -17c. As a consequence, trains and buses in the city were subject to severe delays/cancellations, in fact part of the main S8 route didn't see a train until Thursday. Driving was difficult due to Black ice and the airport was closed for almost 2 days, so i worked remote for 4 days. Back to some resemblance of normality now the temperatures have improved, but the snow will be around for some time yet.

I was meant to arrive at Heathrow Thursday evening, but my late afternoon flight to Schiphol was cancelled due to freezing fog there that resulted in  the airport being closed. Thankfully KLM rebooked me a flight yesterday and provided me with a hotel room (and dinner) at the airport that saved me an early morning journey from other side of the city.

I'm off to Sandown later, the primary reason for my trip, meeting a few guys i go racing with including posters Lucky Lucinano and Mr Spreadsheet, assuming it's on of course.

I fully expect CH and Jonbon to win, but will the former run. I have my doubts, but in my opinion he should run, the going will not be issue considering how he skipped over it when winning the Tolworth over CD, even allowing for a sub-standard field. He's a class above his rivals and wouldn't need to be 100% to win, although i don't expect a double figure winning distance and he doesn't need to win as such.

Over at Aintree, i think Zambella will make all and win the listed race (12.55) he won in 2021. She has beaten her main rival Pink Legend before, although she finished behind this one at Cheltenham in March, but she didn't jump well at all. Pink Legend has a reasonable record fresh but never won in December and his Aintree record is 0-4-PU. At odds of 2.64 i Zambella can win this race again.

In the Bechers handicap, i think The Big Breakaway is a tentative EW selection. A half-decent novice chaser back in time and although he hasn't won since, has run well in races he has finished, consistently placed. Ignoring the non-finishing, his record since the previous win is 2-2-3-2-3-2-2-5 and may have been a little unlucky at Haydock when just touched off. Trip and going not an issue, so at odds of 6.6 for the win and a 3/TBP for a small profit is worth a small stake.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday.

Thanks for the posts Lampus/Mr Spreadsheet and PHS.
Report December 9, 2023 8:56 AM GMT
her Aintree record is
Report December 9, 2023 9:05 AM GMT
CH a NR, not a total shock, but i really don't understand the reasoning. A soft ground horse that was impressive on heavy over CD, runs well fresh and a field that wouldn't finish in the same parish in a champion hurdle.
Report Lampus December 9, 2023 10:25 AM GMT
Thank you ANDREW Happy
Enjoy your day
Report Lampus December 9, 2023 1:03 PM GMT
Zambella HappyGrin
Report second again December 9, 2023 1:59 PM GMT
Well done with Zambella Andrew , good luck with the rest of your bets and I hope you enjoy the rest of the day.
Report CagliariG December 10, 2023 7:24 PM GMT
CET is 1 hour ahead of UK ikea not behind so 1315 hrs UK would be 1415 hrs CET not 1215 hrs as you imply, never known anyone to get it that wrong in over 40 years?
Report December 10, 2023 9:36 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Thank you Lampus and Second Again.

A nice time at Sandown yesterday afternoon and on to South London in the evening for food, drinks and AV v Arsenal on-screen. A small group of 4, good same company as always, we all came out winning after backing similar horses and i got to have a good chat with Ed (Thompson) who laid me 800 @ 4/11 on Jonbon (also backed on here).

I only had 3 bets at Sandown, 2 winners, although the other was only 60 win on the first race fav (8/11) who looked beaten at the last and a much smaller fun bet on a loser, but we were all on Zambella at Aintree who i fancied strongly. Well backed and won impressively.

A decent crowd on course, weather was mixed, but generally dry and certainly warmer than München. A pity Constitution Hill didn't run, but i guess it wasn't a total shock to anyone.

One bet on Friday and same today (8/11 and 2/9 respectively) has made it a profitable weekend. It doesn't always work out this well, although a couple of the winners more or less picked themselves.

An early morning flight in the morning, but i will not be over again this side of Christmas. No definite plans for the festive season/NY although i would like to be over for a few days from 26th, if i don't return home to Sweden.

A few of the guys are going to a open day at Dan and Claire Küblers stable to see our horse Salamanca Lad in mid-January and i could be joining them.

My workload is still as manic as ever and i will be in Germany for the next 6 months at least and very likely the rest of 2024. When i came here from Linköping in early 2019, i thought it would be for the year, maybe 18 months at best, but i'm not complaining. Mind you, if Saab ever start a new project, i will return like a shot.

Have a nice Sunday evening all.
Report stewarty b December 11, 2023 6:31 AM GMT
Hi Andrew. Off topic but could you oblige and put up that link again for eye treeatment. tia.
Report GLASGOWCALLING December 11, 2023 7:46 AM GMT
Sonigino one of your previous selections put up a good display at Aintree Andrew, must admit I let the weight put me off, not sure what it is with Nicholls and Sat Televised races but he makes it look easy.Happy
Report GLASGOWCALLING December 11, 2023 7:48 AM GMT
* Saturday's.
Report Hayden December 11, 2023 3:13 PM GMT

Looked back and this may be the post you're looking for  ?


You may not necessarily need laser surgery, but get your cataracts checked. I did mine in München (2021) the results were amazing and i can't emphasise this strongly enough. Local anaesthetic, you don't see or feel anything, surgery takes less than 15 minutes (only one eye at a time, the other 2 weeks later). The cataract is removed and replaced with a synthetic type. My eyesight improved dramatically.
Report December 11, 2023 9:40 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Hayden many thanks for finding a bygone post of mine for Stewart, a nice thought and much appreciated.

Stewart the link is applicable to the eye clinic in München, but i'm sure the same technology is available in GB. If so, i can recommend it big time, the difference in my eyesight level today is significant. Note it's not to be confused with Laser/Lasik treatment, it's simply replacement of the cataract with a synthetic lens. No pain whatsoever (in fact, you don't feel anything after anaesthetic drops) a circa 12 minute operation per eye (the other one done 2 weeks later) and no after effects. You are not allowed to go home alone (health and safety here).

My AOK (German) health insurance paid for it with exception of just over 300 euros for an optional extra i had. I can't comment if it's available on the NHS.

Glasgow correct, it was an EW selection in his previous run, 4th at 11/1. I looked at the Aintree card briefly, albeit more Zambella and the Bechers race and didn't see Sonigiono running. I noticed the result later, mind you, would i have mentioned it if i had seen it.

Have a nice evening all, what's left of it at least.
Report CagliariG December 11, 2023 10:55 PM GMT
Ikeaman, interesting you say you don't have to consider the 1 hour rule for the compy as it is something I have to remember especially when there are early starts i.e 1315 hrs Uk is 1415 hrs here. So to post a selection for say a race at 1345 hrs UK time it has to be posted before 1245 hrs here.

The thing is if I was in UK and wanted to post a selection for 1345 hrs and checked my watch and it showed 1415 hrs CET because I forgot to change it I would obviously be too late and ditto if I had remembered. What I cannot fathom is if you don't have to consider the cut off because of living in the CET zone an hour ahead how does that work for you in the UK if a post you say is made in error at 1315 hrs UK could have been in time for 1345 hrs when the actual CET was 1415 hrs?

Do you see the puzzle, the time difference does not make sense in your posts as a reason, can you clarify how it works for you?
Report stewarty b December 12, 2023 5:46 AM GMT
Thanks Andrew/Hayden.
Report stewarty b December 12, 2023 7:44 AM GMT
I've had a good look at the link Andrew and as far as I can see, (apologies for the two puns) this treatment is basically for bad cataracts. I think mine are fine but a check up soon. I'll update after my next appointment but I would maybe go for laser treatment if it was recommended by my optician as it would be a bliss not wearing two pairs of glasses every day.
Report December 16, 2023 12:52 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

A short post as i'm in the city and meeting friends for a beer or two at 14.00.

A half-decent card at Cheltenham, although i wasn't overly enamoured with any of the cards today, unlike a week ago and any bets i have will only be small.

My shortie win bet is Western Zephyr (Hereford 2.13). A couple of placings in novice chases and may have been a little unlucky LTO (mistake at 2nd last) when just touched off. Has the Paul Nicholls trained favourite Beau Balko to beat, but he didn't find much and wouldn't have finished 2nd if Soul Icon hadn't UR 2 out. Currently odds around 7/4.

In the Gold Cup Premier Handicap (Cheltenham 1.50) my EW selection is the Venetia Williams trained Frero Banbou who looked as though he was returning to form at Newbury LTO before a last fence mistake (4L clear at the time) ruined his chance, but still finished 2nd. Currently around 8/1, so a small win/3TBP.

A few lays to consider.

Pacini (Fairyhouse 1.05) who was beaten at 4/7 on debut based on a flat win in France (runner-up since finished 10/10) and needs to improve his hurdling. Short enough in the betting at 5/4.

Broadway Boy (Cheltenham 2.25). Running well in novice chases, but first time in open company and although winning by 20 on the course LTO, he was gifted an easy lead and the field basically fell apart. May not get his own way this afternoon and it's a trappy handicap.

Shanagh Bob (Cheltenham 3.00). An expensive buy after winning a P2P and win well at Plumpton, but it was an Egg and Spoon race (3rd beaten since). Nicky normally starts his decent types at grade 1 courses and perhaps punters/media are pondering if this is the next Shishkin.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report December 16, 2023 12:56 PM GMT

As you get older our cataracts weaken, albeit at varying degrees of course. I discussed Laser treatment at the clinic, but decided against it and i'm more than happy with the treatment i had, i don't wear visual aids at all now. I have a lot to thank the German Health service for.
Report Lampus December 16, 2023 12:58 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW  Happy
Report PHS December 16, 2023 3:12 PM GMT
Dear oh dear! Not a great day! I only did the two backs, so got off lightly.
Report stewarts rise December 16, 2023 3:44 PM GMT
Never mind Andrew, cr@p happens sometimes, you'll come back.
Report December 16, 2023 6:29 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Thanks for the posts.

Not much to be said, except i hold my hands up after what was certainly my worst post this year. The lays were short enough (5/4f, 11/8f and 15/8f) but getting 3/3 wrong is actually embarrassing. To make the day worse, the one runner i thought could win (my nap) was well backed and finished last of 4. At least the EW selection finished 3rd (9/1) but sods-law i didn't back it.

A pity because recent weekend posts have been profitable, but we all know racing can make fools of us sometimes. Roll on Boxing day.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report PHS December 23, 2023 12:37 PM GMT
Report Lampus December 23, 2023 12:52 PM GMT
Happy  Xmas  ANDREW  Happy
Report Early Morning Riser December 23, 2023 1:02 PM GMT
Andrews on the mulled wine at the xmas marketWink. Merry xmas too all posters on this thread.
Report second again December 23, 2023 1:24 PM GMT
Seasons greetings to all on the best thread on here.
Report PHS December 24, 2023 3:28 PM GMT
Merry Xmas Plain
Report December 24, 2023 10:49 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always. No racing of course, but an opportunity to wish everyone here a wonderful Christmas festive season with your loved ones.

Looking forward to a few decent UK/Irish meetings in the forthcoming few days and hoping a French novice chaser pays a few expenses on Boxing day, but more on that later.


I've had my share of Glühwein and Bratwurst in the past few weeks, but to be fair Germans do Christmas markets really well. Mind you the weather has been atrocious there recently including the aftermath of Storm Pia that impacted public transport and flights.

I'm spending a few days back to old roots, albeit not childhood ones. Arrived at Heathrow in the early hours of Friday morning (delayed BA flight due to weather) and i'm currently in a rainy Bristol city centre hotel until Tuesday, then back to London. I had planned to go to Kempton, but i think it's very unlikely.

Second again

Thanks for the kind words.

Have a nice Christmas eve, at least what's left of it.
Report December 26, 2023 11:44 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

A short post as i have a National Express coach to catch at 13.00 (Bristol to London).

Some decent racing over the next few days and if i remember correctly 12 G1 races, including 5 today. Constitution Hill the stand-out in terms of quality, but obviously not a working mans price and only for money buyers (i'm one).

Regular readers know i follow French racing and one i have been waiting to run for weeks is ll Est Francais (Kempton 1.20) the best novice chaser over there. Failed to win on flat debut, albeit a decent runner-up position, followed by the same in a couple of bumpers. Went on to win 5 of 6 hurdle races including a couple of G3's and a G1. Unbeaten in 2 novice chases since and looks well above average. Up in trip and different course configuration to contend with, but good going shouldn't be an issue (has won on it). Jumps well and i think we will hear more of this one in future. My WhatsApp friends will be happy when the race is over, they are probably fed up of me mentioning him, but at least it was at 3/1 AP when i first did. I'm not really a fan of the likely favourite Hermes Allen and i think the French horse wins, currently around 2.74, although not a lump-on of course.

Good luck and have a nice Boxing day all.
Report Lampus December 26, 2023 1:06 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW G/L Happy
Report Lampus December 26, 2023 1:28 PM GMT
THANK YOU  ANDREW  HappyHappyHappy
Report Early Morning Riser December 26, 2023 1:37 PM GMT
Thank you Andrew, covered my bets for the day.
Report December 26, 2023 7:46 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Thanks for the posts Lampus and EMR.

I've been quietly confident about II Est Francais in recent weeks, the field could have been better for a G1 (a few half decent rivals were missing) and i mentioned earlier he jumps well, but he even exceeded my opinion at a few of them. This was his first race over English fences, although he's been jumping them at Auteuil as part of his education and it was also a first run on a right handed track, but it obviously didn't faze him. An impressive win and James Reveley allowed him the luxury of being eased close home.

The French Gold Cup at Auteuil in May is on his agenda and he will be very short odds to win there. As for crossing the channel again, the Cheltenham festival could be a possible, but the same Kempton card in 2024 will surely give him a decent chance of another boxing day G1, it will take a very good one to beat him.

Timeform subsequently upped him to a mark of 160 and he will surely be higher in the coming months, without question the best novice chaser we've seen this season to date although it's early days of course.

A good day for me, only the two runners i mentioned, but the best odds i had on CH was 1.12 (here) and 1/10 (Betfred in Bristol).

Have a nice Boxing day evening all.
Report December 31, 2023 8:13 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Back in München (arrived last night) after 8 really relaxing days in GB; West of London initially, then Bristol for 3 days before returning to the capital. Met up with a few family members, a bit like Santa, i only visit once a year. Wink

The English food-fix was welcoming, although i've had enough sticky toffee pudding (my favourite desert) to last me a good while.

The weather could have been better, but it's the same here in Germany, although no snow, unlike the week before i left.

Conversely, from a betting perspective, it couldn't have been better, after losing on the first Saturday (backed Solo who finished 2nd) i only had 6 bets in total, all winners starting with II Est Francais, then Constitution Hill, Marine National (double with a Burdett Road a NR), Gaelic Warrior, State Man and Jeriko Du Reponet. All odds-on bar the first one and easy enough to pick, but there's often one that goes down when you back a few shorties over a few days. I made a nice few bob, although i also spent a few, specifically with travelling and hotels for 3, but it was worth it.

If i have a regret, it was not going to Kempton on Boxing day, but it was only a possible anyway and in the end i was on a coach from Bristol anyway. 

My next racing trip over will be the DRF in early February, a few of us are going, although i may go to the Küblers stable syndicate day in mid-January to see our horse Salamanca Lad. He's back in training now and had his first gallop for the stable last week; reports from Daniel and Claire are promising.

As it's end of the year, this thread will drop off as per usual and i will start a new one tomorrow. I neglected the original lay format with a PL (varying reasons) but i know i finished with a loss; i can post the full record tomorrow, but on a positive note i'm still profit overall since my first lay thread in 2018. I put up plenty of winners (and losers) on other occasions, but i have no idea what the outcome was and i certainly don't want to scroll back over a year.

Many thanks to everyone that contributed this year, i have always stated the thread isn't only about me and i appreciated all your posts. Sadly, we lost an occasional poster (Smirnoff) who passed away, and a more frequent poster, Alan (The Anorak) who can't post at the moment, although i'm in email contact with him.

In the meantime i wish you and your loved ones a happy and healthy 2024. Good luck all.
Report CagliariG December 31, 2023 8:32 PM GMT
Of course he cannot read this but just a hint again 2113 hrs here, 1 hour ahead of UK, check the spreadsheet!! Buon Anno Nuovo da CET!!
Report bristol county caravans January 1, 2024 9:46 AM GMT
Happy new year Andrew and all.
Report chavman January 1, 2024 11:12 AM GMT
great user name
Report happysandwich January 1, 2024 11:47 AM GMT

Andrew was down that neck of the woods over the weekend and could have been looking for a cheaper way to travel.Laugh
Report happysandwich January 1, 2024 11:49 AM GMT
Good morning Andrew and everyone, a happy & healthy New Year to you all.

I had another successful year on my dumb Lay 21 system.

Bookmark this if anyone wants to follow my progress over the next 12 months and watch me do my pennies back.Laugh

Good Luck
Report PHS January 1, 2024 11:53 AM GMT
Happy New Year allHappy
Report Lucky Luciano January 1, 2024 12:51 PM GMT
Happy New year Andrew, best of luck for 2024 especially with SL
Hopefully you can make the stable visit
Report January 2, 2024 6:52 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Thanks for the posts, hope everyone had a nice New Year eve and a hangover free day yesterday.

My last bet was Saturday lunchtime (the Nicky Henderson shortie) and looking at cards for the next few days, it will probably be this weekend before my next one, so i may start the 2024 thread then.

Lucky Luciano

Thanks, a quiet one last night, i didn't bother going into München centre, the weather wasn't so good and my daughter is in Edinburgh with her boyfriend for a few days. There are restrictions on fireworks (21.00-02.00) in the Marienplatz area anyway, although i could see several displays from where i am.

A visit to the Küblers stable syndicate open day is not definite, but if i don't go, i expect a comprehensive report on our horse. Wink

I'm back home in Linköping on 26th for the weekend, and over to Ireland for the 2 day DRF on Feb 2nd, it looks like a decent meeting, as it generally is. There's also the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on 20th where El Fabiolo is a possible runner, but as much as i would like to go, it's probably unlikely. 


I did find a cheap mode of travel to Bristol, Flix-Bus and National Express on the return. Flix-Bus are as cheap as chips, certainly compared with NE, but not bad, i can recommend them, or Mega-Bus that i have used before.

WD with the 2023 profit.

Have a nice Tuesday evening all.
Report Trusty January 2, 2024 9:59 PM GMT
A belated Happy New Year to AIS and all the posters.

Haven't posted for a while as really only betting on Saturday now as unable to place any decent bets. Unfortunately I do not play the shorties like AIS that you can easily back on here, I am much more interested in 20/1 plus and mainly e/w and BF just is not made for that and the books won't take my bets for more than a few quid. Even if I wanted to do a Grand National / Cesarawitch double I would be lucky to get a £10 e/w placed.

I have accepted the situation and just do not spend the time looking at racing any more.

Report Trusty January 4, 2024 12:14 PM GMT

This is what I mean, I asked for £25 e/w for Saturday and immediately get pushed back for 50p e/w. Sick.
Report PHS January 5, 2024 5:01 PM GMT
Same for me with that crowd, Trusty.
Report January 6, 2024 1:47 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

A public holiday (Epiphany) in many European countries including Germany with most shops closed as a consequence, so a stay home day with ITV4 racing for me and a chance to post a few words.

Trusty/PHS thank you for the posts. Limitation of betting stakes and financial checks are a recurring theme in the UK gambling industry that is slowly drowning in a self-conceived cess-pit and a real threat to the sport of horse racing we love.

We are all aware online bookmakers are only interested in casino game players and even placing a bet on the high street is not what it used to be in bygone days, i know this from personal experience (requests for ID at Korals and PP when placing a few bob on). I doubt it will improve in future either, the only answer is a complete overhaul across the spectrum, not only with bookmakers, otherwise it will go the same way as Greyhound racing.

Inclement weather has played its part in course abandonments this afternoon; what's left is not so welcoming and it's very doubtful i will be backing anything, in fact my previous bet was a week ago in a Newbury hurdle.

I thought a Paul Nicholls runner, Individualiste at his local track Wincanton (3.15) was a lay, even though he won by 16L at Taunton LTO. The race basically fell apart, the form is questionable and it was only 6 days ago. Has to contend with heavy going that will be really stamina stretching, up in trip and class in what looks to be a very open handicap. Currently trading around 3.50.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Changing topic, regular readers know i work in the military and civil aerospace industry, and a few posters have shown interest, so i occasionally post a few muses of information.

Several days ago, we all saw media reports of the Japan Airlines Airbus A350-941 that collided with a Japan Coast Guard DHC-8-315Q MPA turboprop aircraft on the runway at Tokyo-Haneda Airport. It appears to have been a ATC issue as the latter, much smaller aircraft should not have been situated where it was. Sadly 5 of the 6 crew died, but miraculously, all occupants of the Airbus aircraft survived.

Before any aircraft can fly, it has to be approved by regulatory authorities (i.e. EASA in Europe or FAA in USA). Part of the certification process for 44+ pax configurations is an emergency evacuation test where all occupants (including crew) have to egress the aircraft in less than 90 seconds using 50% of the exits (others are blocked off). There are many factors involved with this test and i don't have time to describe them all, but you can see videos on You-Tube. One example :

What made the 100% survival rate all the more astonishing, of the 8 emergency exits in an Airbus A350, only 3 (L1, R1 and L4) were used due to external fire. The aircraft has a significant amount of composites used in manufacture of the fuselage, including interior lining that has to pass stringent flammability tests, therefore buying valuable time for the evacuation, in fact, the pilot was the last person to leave, 20 minutes after the aircraft stopped. Testament to superb design of the aircraft and professionalism of the cabin crew.

Conversely, another aircraft i have mentioned here before (not in a positive light) the Boeing 737-MAX is in the news again. All operators of the aircraft have been requested to check the rudder control system as 2 airlines have discovered a bolt without an associated nut, clearly indicating lack of quality control during manufacture.

On a more serious note, yesterday, an Alaska Airlines was subject to a decompression during ascent at 16,000 ft when a mid-cabin emergency exit 'blew-out' leaving a large aperture in the fuselage. Oxygen masks were automatically deployed (common practice in such an event) and a young boy sitting directly next to the exit had his T shirt torn completely away due to pressure; h was very lucky to be wearing a seat belt. Other passengers lost mobile phones.

Alaska Airlines have subsequently grounded all Boeing 737-MAX aircraft and the FAA are investigating, not for the first time with this aircraft type.
Report Lampus January 6, 2024 2:11 PM GMT
Thank   you ANDREW  G/L  Happy
Report GEORGE.B January 6, 2024 11:19 PM GMT
Came across this from TheAnorak, 'Premierisation' was the final straw for him as an owner
Report TommyWestofLanark January 6, 2024 11:28 PM GMT
Thanks for the information on aircraft, always interesting.
Report January 7, 2024 8:52 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

A chilly (-3c) München with snow on the ground.




Thanks, i hadn't seen the Simon Nott article until you posted, but i knew Alan had given away Eagle Court and is giving up on ownership. He still can't post on here, but i keep in contact with him via email. The prize money comparison is just one of the negatives in the racing industry these days and Alan is not the only one packing the game in.


Thanks, i'm an aircraft nerd 1st and massive racing fan 2nd, all stemming from 11+ years living on a RAF camp in Cornwall and then Bristol where my dad was at BAC Filton (home of Concorde, although he didn't work on it). This led me to a lifetime in the aerospace industry, worldwide.

More on the Boeing 373MAX, as suspected the FAA have temporarily grounded all US registered models (the -9 variant) for a mandatory inspection. In my opinion the fault will be in the attachments used to install the exit panel on the skin, possibly a quality inspection issue. This incident could have been far worse if it had occurred at a cruise altitude of 39,000ft instead of 16,000ft during an ascent, the cabin pressure would have been much higher and it's even possible the child that only lost his T shirt, could have been sucked out of the aircraft.

The aircraft is possibly the most scrutinised ever, but for valid reason and i've stated before i will not fly on it, at least until it's had a couple of years with incident free service.

Have a nice Sunday evening all.
Report chavman January 7, 2024 8:58 PM GMT
andrew do you think michael caine had anything to do with the alaska airlines job
Report happysandwich January 8, 2024 7:51 AM GMT
Report January 8, 2024 11:34 AM GMT
Report CagliariG January 8, 2024 4:39 PM GMT
No Airman ever lived in the same MQ for 11+ years never mind had a posting for so long at a defunct Station in the 70s, far less a Sac clothing storeman. hth
Report January 8, 2024 8:51 PM GMT
Interesting videos related to the B737-MAX
Report Early Morning Riser January 20, 2024 2:02 PM GMT
Are you snowed in Adnrew.
Report happysandwich January 20, 2024 2:11 PM GMT
No, unlike you, he just can't get up in the morning.Laugh
Report Early Morning Riser January 27, 2024 12:14 PM GMT
Where is Andrew, have he stopped posting.
Report January 27, 2024 12:45 PM GMT

Thank you.

Currently in Linköping, no not stopped posting, but mega busy in recent weeks.

I will start a new 2024 thread in mid-week.

Off to Dublin next Friday for the 2 days DRF and a well deserved break.

Good luck
Report Early Morning Riser January 27, 2024 1:55 PM GMT
Thank you Andrew, missing your posts.
Report PHS January 31, 2024 3:24 PM GMT
I will start a new 2024 thread in mid-week.

Report CagliariG January 31, 2024 3:46 PM GMT
Busy plane spotting at St Eval. (closed in 1959) hth
Report The Management January 31, 2024 3:53 PM GMT
Can somebody tell the Sandwich:

I think you missed this one, probably just an oversight!

Monday night 19:00 Wolverhampton

1st: Inverlochy

ISP: 4/1

BFSP: 5.99 CryBlush
Report formoftheace January 31, 2024 3:57 PM GMT
Deary me !
Report February 2, 2024 12:35 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Thanks for the posts. As far as the P/L lay selections went in 2023, the less mentioned the better, it was an abysmal start to the year and i stopped after only 6 selections resulting in a loss. The thread continued with backs and lays, but i have no idea of how they performed and it's not important anyway. In hindsight, maybe i should have continued, as a lot of lays i mentioned did get beaten, cest la vie. Never mind, poster contributions made it a readable thread, if nothing else.

The P/L record was WLLWLL for a loss £362.50

If i don't better that record in 2024, i will take up gardening for a hobby Wink.

I will create a new thread for 2024 later, but i'm on my way to München airport shortly for the first of 2 flights to Ireland. Staying in Dublin for 3 nights, with 2 days at the DRF for some superb racing. Many thanks to all that contributed to the thread, much appreciated as always.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.


Simply due to an excess workload in recent weeks, additionally taking on another project (advisory only).

Once again, i have to put you bang to rights, boring though it is. My Dad joined the RAF before i was born and we lived in MQ/Cornwall for 11 years+. Initially Anson Road, St Eval. I went to the local school that was a 5 minute walk across the playing field, the house and school (different name) are still there, at least they were in 2016 when i went to visit. Contrary to what you have disputed many times, he was ground crew/engine fitter with Coastal Command, initially St. Eval, later St. Mawgan. Both RAF stations were coastal command, Google it, i don’t have to. The RAF continue to have a presence at St. Mawgan and the MOD at St. Eval. We also lived in Padstow for a few months after he left the RAF, before moving go BAC Filton, Bristol, home to probably the best aerospace site in UK ever. In 1970, he had probably forgotten the RAF. Passed away in 2010, i have his service records.

The difference between you and me is, i don’t lie or post BS, i don’t want to, or need to. You on the other hand are the proverbial liar, never accepting you are wrong, argumentative and obnoxious with many on here. There are guys on here i go racing with that know me, some quite well and i’m confident BS is not something they would associate with me. I doubt you could say the same about yourself.

Much of what you post is absolute tosh and rarely factually correct, if Timeform rated forum posters, you would certainly get the squiggle.

Get a life.
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 12:51 PM GMT
Change the narrative to fit your earlier BS, no previous mention of Of St Mawgan which is in Wales btw and where I did a few courses, never near Cornwall. As for 11+ years in AMQ, no airman ever had a posting of that length never mind staying in AMQ at a closed base (1959) or a disbanded command 1969.

Simple facts that are irrebuttable and the difference between you and I as you point out is that I mentioned St Mawgan on here over a decade ago and posted my certificates of service and unlike you I did not have to google unlike you did. You started with lies regarding Coastal Command at St Eval and 11 years in AMQ in the 70s probably thinking nobody would pickup on the fact it did not exist after 1969 and St Eval closed in 59.

You said you became obsessed with aircraft at the base, there were none after 59 based there, so tell us what porkies I have told regarding this or rebut the facts?

Report February 2, 2024 12:58 PM GMT
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 12:58 PM GMT
Little hint for you,beware the trip up of Saints!!
Report February 2, 2024 12:59 PM GMT

I rest my case
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 12:59 PM GMT
Too late you did!!
Report February 2, 2024 1:02 PM GMT

Coastal Command
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 1:04 PM GMT
Still disbanded 1969!! FACT, no aircraft based there from 1959!!
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 1:08 PM GMT
Why did you not simply say St Mawgan is not in Wales and have to google to double check?
Report Brian February 2, 2024 1:17 PM GMT
Your tolerance is amazing Andrew but probably wasted.
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 1:20 PM GMT
Sociopathic liars are not inclined to give up Brian even when the facts are obvious!! hth
Report markwin February 2, 2024 2:21 PM GMT
Bit confused.
So is st mawgan in wales or Cornwall  cg
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 2:24 PM GMT
Cornwall, which ais should have pointed out had he been sure!!
Report markwin February 2, 2024 2:45 PM GMT
Ah ,I thought you said it was in wales ,and you had done a few courses there
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 2:48 PM GMT
Hence the beware of the Saints trip mark, he tripped and went straight to google as anticipated!!
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 2:49 PM GMT
Btw my courses were at St Athan!!
Report The Management February 2, 2024 2:56 PM GMT
AIS said what county it was in - and you said it was actually in a completely different country.

It turns out it was in the county he stated and not in country you stated.

But you still seem to think you are correct and he is incorrect? - give it up ffs!
Report unclepuncle February 2, 2024 2:59 PM GMT
Guy is clearly mentally ill.
Report February 2, 2024 3:51 PM GMT
no previous mention of Of St Mawgan which is in Wales btw and where I did a few courses, never near Cornwall.

Laugh RAF St Eval and RAF St Mawgan are in Cornwall. You stated you did a course in Mawgan, Wales, then changed your mind when i posted the links to show you they were both coastal command bases and where they were. I knew both RAF camps well, they are not so far apart and we used to cycle from both down to Mawgan Porth or Watergate Bay. I know where i grew up !

As for 11+ years in AMQ, no airman ever had a posting of that length

Really ? From RAF Recruitment : All recruits, are normally enlisted on a 12-year Notice engagement which is followed by a period of 6 years reserve service. RAF Personnel can apply to leave before the end of their initial period of service – paragraphs 33 to 40 contain more information on when and how you may be able to do so.

I know for a FACT my dad did over 11 years, he was in the service before i was born.

never mind staying in AMQ at a closed base (1959) or a disbanded command 1969.

Have you considered the obvious response. My Dad served at St Eval and then St Mawgan as i stated. He was also in Malta and Aden albeit without family members. A young kid remembers things like this.

I have no idea why you mention 1970, he was in civvy street then and probably forgotten the RAF.

Get a grip 

Simple facts that are irrebuttable and the difference between you and I as you point out is that I mentioned St Mawgan on here over a decade ago and posted my certificates of service and unlike you I did not have to google unlike you did. You started with lies regarding Coastal Command at St Eval and 11 years in AMQ in the 70s probably thinking nobody would pickup on the fact it did not exist after 1969 and St Eval closed in 59.

You said you became obsessed with aircraft at the base, there were none after 59 based there, so tell us what porkies I have told regarding this or rebut the facts?[/i]
Report February 2, 2024 3:52 PM GMT
ignore Cags lower paragraph, i meant to delete it
Report markwin February 2, 2024 3:53 PM GMT
I’m inclined to agree with the majority.
Someone is clearly tripping up .
I’ve always found Andrew in Sweden’s post ,informative,well thought out ,and enjoyable to read .
Report February 2, 2024 3:54 PM GMT
Thanks TM and Uncle.

Brian, you're correct, i don't know why i bother, but it's an end of the year thread, so i thought to get it out of the way. 

It can drop away now.
Report February 2, 2024 4:00 PM GMT
Thanks Markwin.

As advanced info, i will be posting Bunting as an EW selection in the Spring Juvenile (1.50 Leopardstown) tomorrow (if i get chance) even though PT has chosen a stablemate. I've had the Triumph winner in the past 2 years, Vauban and Lossiemouth; both decent odds (16/1 and 6/1) and followed both off a cliff in their juvenile runs.

Backed Bunting at 10 and 12 for the Triumph, but only small. I will have a EW on him tomorrow. PT obviously doesn't have a clue Wink
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 4:02 PM GMT
More bullsh!t and deflection from ikeaman, note I posted at exactly the same time to warn you about the trip up of the Saints, all you had to do was point out the anomaly put there which proved you are a liar.

Btw correct me if I am wrong but you stated you lived in AMQ at St Eval in the 70s? Now you are telling us your dad had left the RAF before then but Coastal Command were still in existence? As for serving 12 years did your dad not have to do basic training and FT courses which makes 11+ years in one AMQ impossible? You conveniently mentioned St Mawgan for the first time since being challenged why would you now claim something other than to change your early narratives?

The more you type the more your story unravels!! HTH
Report GLASGOWCALLING February 2, 2024 4:21 PM GMT
Report rekab February 2, 2024 4:37 PM GMT
Andrew, I thought you had blocked this imbecile, why are you now wasting your time engaging with him?
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 4:40 PM GMT
He is trying to change the narrative of his porkie pies, no so blind as those that cannot see!!! Keep sending the funds to Nigeria you believers, surely must be legit!!
Report rekab February 2, 2024 5:26 PM GMT
I do realise I am giving CagliariG the attention he craves. No doubt I will get some flak. Why someone would go out of their way to be so unpleasant is anyone's guess.
Report CagliariG February 2, 2024 5:35 PM GMT
Check your facts rekab, a big difference between posting truthful facts and being unpleasant, no attention seeking here btw and perhaps you don't recognise Sociopathy?
Report rekab February 2, 2024 7:12 PM GMT
I do recognise Sociopathy and see it applies to you. Having asked Andrew why he was getting drawn into this, I am taking my own advice and will not be getting into ping pong with you.
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