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differentdrum
04 Oct 22 12:01
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 4,647 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Plenty of well bred youngsters entered this week. It looks as he is trying to get off to a flyer.

Unfortunately, in recent years I can't remember him producing too many serious bumper/novices. I am surprised so many invest so much, and end up with what are effectively five-year handicap projects.

He needs to do better with the ammunition he gets.

Today he runs Collectors Item at Huntingdon. On his two runs he is much better than this opposition, but he hasn't been strong in the market and you have to wonder if two miles on a sharp track on quickish ground is going to be ideal for a national hunt bred horse with his profile.
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Report Pilsudski October 30, 2022 1:51 PM GMT
Again…….Top Row ?
Report ashleigh October 30, 2022 1:53 PM GMT
backing his Morning Spirit in the 3.40, will like the ground and first time out might be the time to catch him.
Report Whippin Piccadilly October 30, 2022 1:58 PM GMT
Yes, great call Glasgow. It's always nice to get a much better price about one you fancy. Grin Also Archie is a very talented trainer IMO
Report differentdrum October 30, 2022 2:07 PM GMT
I have no idea why I have started calling Cedar Row as Top Row. I think it's called a mistake.
Report differentdrum October 30, 2022 2:50 PM GMT
I know it's only one piece of evidence, but Bear Ghylls looks a much safer proposition over fences. Just that one mistake before he got tired. He should have no problem winning a novice before looking at something better. At this stage I can't see the need to step him up in trip. The winner is a useful yardstick who would have relished conditions.
Report differentdrum October 30, 2022 5:29 PM GMT
Just a couple of closing thoughts on Carlisle.

I wouldn't take that Colin Parker result at face value. I think a fitter version of Bear Ghylls would have every chance of making up that deficit. 

Good Risk At All won very easily, but his jumping is still ponderous at best. At the moment I think he needs slow ground to get away with it.
Report differentdrum October 31, 2022 5:49 PM GMT
Stable took the low grade handicap that opened today's Hereford card. Quite a rarity to see one that isn't strangled running for the yard. It shows that can do it, and it does work. If he settles a bit better, and improves his jumping, he might be able to nick one or two more as he shouldn't go up too much for today's win.

Crebilly runs in tomorrow's novice hurdle. He is from the family of Deep Bramble and Seven Towers, but there are an awful lot more duffers in the family as well. From a distance he doesn't look that big and both starts would suggest he isn't the quickest tool. Again you would think sending him forward wouldn't be the worst idea. Neither piece of form has been franked. That said there isn't a really strong piece of form in tomorrow's race, and just about any result is possible.
Report differentdrum November 1, 2022 10:38 AM GMT
Crebilly taken out self certificate. Had drifted which suggested today wasn't going to be the day. Longsdon's now looks very short. Little surprised at Gunnery Officer being supported. Tommy's Oscar a notable exception, but If Colin Bowe has a good one it usually wins on first or second start. This one's jumping hasn't been that good either. The closing bumper has a similar feel with nothing standing out hence it is currently 5/1 the field. The Easterby horse the biggest mover 125/1-12/1. Interesting to see if that is sustained. Hughes looks a notable booking, but the horse was sold on for just 1,000. Possibly someone trying to nick a few quid with a back to lay. Novice chase is interesting, but not sure how many would want the ground to deteriorate. Hopefully, they all run.
Report differentdrum November 1, 2022 1:59 PM GMT
Well gamble landed with Gunnery Officer. My take would be that if he could win it then it wasn't much of race, but time will tell. Will that much bigger gamble be landed in the last? Now down to around 4/1.
Report differentdrum November 1, 2022 4:58 PM GMT
Stage Star much the most straightforward in the novice chase. I wouldn't be sure how much racing he can take again this season. I certainly wouldn't be rushing to back him for the Festival. The Williams horse might be of some interest dropped back in trip, and minus Noonan.

The bumper should be an embarrassment for so many trainers. Henderson gets one fit, out on the front end, and wins very easily. You would think others might take note, but I doubt it. One such would be Emma Lavelle. Two horses that made progress from off the pace only to stop to nothing. Woefully unfit? In this day and age that isn't good enough.

More good midweek sport at Chepstow tomorrow. Hopefully, there are not too many non runners on the likely testing ground.

Two for O'Neill in the novices. I would be surprised if either is seriously involved.

Dr Hegarty is in the same ownership as Biowavego. He has a reasonable pedigree, but his full brother has been kept away from testing ground, and this looks by far the stronger of the two divisions. Time For A Pint was a relatively cheap purchase off the back of winning a point on a technicality. This looks too strong.

Evan Williams looks the trainer of most interest tomorrow with three hurdling debutants in the novice races, and one in the bumper. The one I would be most looking forward to would be Out Of Office. He was purchased for 160,000 having jumped particularly well, and quickened up smartly to see off a promising horse of Pat Doyle's. It looks a strong enough race tomorrow, but it will be disappoing if he can't play a part in the finish. Sergeant Wilson makes a quick reappearance. He looked something of a nut job first time, and there are lots of open spaces at Chepstow. It looks like the Twister is out to prove a point. In the bumper it might be worth noting that Twiston-Davies has gone to Musselburgh rather than ride the rare non-french bred for Sam Thomas in the bumper. In the opening novice I will keep an eye on Unspeakable. He isn't going to win tomorrow, but although he was beaten miles on his reappearance I thought that there was a hint of promise.
Report differentdrum November 1, 2022 5:08 PM GMT
An update on Iron Bridge.

I couldn't get more than 33/1 out of Bet 365 for the National Hunt Chase and Brown Advisory.

William Hill were less impressed offering 66/1 (can be boosted to 75/1) for the Brown Advisory. Clearly they don't think the trainer can steer the horse to that target. They might be right, but there are worse prices you could throw a few quid at.
Report Whippin Piccadilly November 1, 2022 10:34 PM GMT
I was very impressed by Iron Bridge, I thought he jumped really well and he looked like a natural at the game. I think the bookies might have underestimated him. He's not ground dependent and you know he's going to stay really well.It will be very interesting to see where he turns up next.

Have you had a look at Chepstow? There's some nice looking Maiden Hurdles on the card.
Report differentdrum November 2, 2022 11:20 AM GMT
Yes, looking forward to them. As above will be watching the four Williams runners. At the moment only the relatively exposed one looks fancied in the weakest race. Nothing for Out Of Office, but it wouldn't be unheard of for the stable to throw in the odd big priced one at this track. Hoping the ground is testing enough to make it seem like a long two miles, but I don't think he is devoid of pace which is probably why he is in the shorter race.
Report differentdrum November 2, 2022 2:56 PM GMT
As expected the O'Neill horses were nowhere near good enough. Dr Hegarty the better of the two, but they need their sights lowering to be competitive.

Not a great day if you punted the Williams runners. Only the first one was seriously interested in winning (which the market suggested), but serial bridle merchant Wedge messed up by not putting the race to bed when travelling much the best. Really poor riding. I am not going to give up on Unspeakable. Although he was miles behind you caught a glimpse of the head on, and he had plenty left crossing the line. When he eventually runs over the right trip I think he might well be seen in a different light. Even though he was beaten ten lengths it wouldn't surprise me if Out Of Office does turn out to be the best horse on view. He jumped very nicely, was allowed to drop out of contention, before running on under what can only be described as tender handling. It's amazing how these horses can be prepped to win their point, but when it comes to starting off under rules the trainer is so often not overly bothered about winning. I assume the horse will now run over a more suitable trip. I thought there was a lot more promise in this run than Hurricane Highway produced in the longer novice. That one looks a three mile handicapper.

Similar to the comments about Henderson yesterday, Nicholls embarrassing the rest. Get the horses fit, bang them out on the front end, and bingo. The others need to step up. 

Talking about embarrassing Harvey excelling himself again today. It was excrutiating listening to him talking about the wrong horse. These are the cards that Sky should make the most of, but they send the biggest clown in racing, and intersperse the racing with adverts for the Breeders Cup. Not good enough.
Report differentdrum November 2, 2022 4:53 PM GMT
Deja vu in the last. Nicholls wins with another nice prospect. Cobden isn't having to do much more than point and fire. It seems every season Nicholls gets off to this kind of start. Horses fit, tactics sound, and the results follow. On the other hand Secret Plan stays on nicely in fourth having never seriously looked like being involved for the places.
Report ribero1 November 2, 2022 5:01 PM GMT
Looks as though STD would have been better off at Chepstow with ground going against his mounts at Musselburgh and might have made the difference in the bumper,yes DD nothing wrong with Cobden but whereas Hughes gets a load of stick for all his Northern gimees Nicholls provides Cobden with plenty.
Report differentdrum November 2, 2022 5:57 PM GMT
Although operating at a lower level than Nicholls, McCain is another one of those trainers who believes in getting his horses fit, and keeping it simple.

Dollar Bae and Itso Fury tomorrow at Ludlow.

Dollar Bae has been disappointing since winning on stable debut. She was easily brushed aside on hurdling debut when her jumping wasn't much more than adequate. I think the step up in trip has to make a big difference if she is to do anything more than place again.

Itso Fury was an easy winner on hurdling debut, but probably didn't beat very much. He looks short enough against two potential improvers, and a hurdling debutant.

I was interested in Blenkinsop stepping up in trip in the last, but not at 7/2.
Report differentdrum November 3, 2022 3:36 PM GMT
For some reason I thought Dollar Bae was stepping up in trip today. She wasn't, but she clearly needs to. It was another wasted run today trying to produce a gear she doesn't possess.

Itso Fury got the job done, but couldn't have had a better set up with the the two dangers getting racing much too early. I suspect it is going be a hard job to complete the hat trick.
Report differentdrum November 3, 2022 4:34 PM GMT
Managed to get 9/2 Blenkinsop although 11/2 was available. Horse had an absolute ton in hand, but Stevens still managed to come close to totally messing up.

Another easy bumper winner for Henderson at Newbury. Earlier another couple of Lavelle runners capitulated to nothing in the straight.
Report differentdrum November 3, 2022 6:09 PM GMT
Two runners for Fitri Hay at Exeter tomorrow.

I couldn't find any footage of Also Known As, but you would imagine it would be a surprise if he turned over a Persian War runner up (even if it was a poor renewal) and a promising bumper/hurdle winner. He is related to plenty of winners, but nothing outstanding in the recent history.

Betty's Banjo won nicely at Uttoxter, but couldn't cope with the drop in trip at the same track. She looks pretty straightforward, and going back up in trip is a positive, but for win purposes I just wonder if she has a few pounds too many against several possible lurkers.

Elsewhere bit surprised that American Mike is starting over an extended trip. Surely they don't see him as an Albert Bartlett horse? It would seem to be a bit early to be running scared of Facile Vega. The Mare's Grade 3 looks very competitive. I like Carrigmoorna Queen, but I doubt she is tomorrow's horse. I do think Fil Dor has a good chance of turning over Pied Piper, but much will depend on how Russell juggles the pace. Elliott will no doubt be hoping that Better Days Ahead is more impressive than Demandrivingdouvan who didn't look quite the full shilling up the straight at Thurles today.
Report differentdrum November 3, 2022 6:23 PM GMT
Looking forward to the Breeders Cup over the next two days. Managed to find one in every race' including four Europeans. Starting down thanks to Jack Christopher's late scratch. Usually manage to find something to get me out of trouble. Last year it was Aloha West. Fingers crossed.
Report differentdrum November 4, 2022 6:09 PM GMT
No surprise that Also Known As wasn't good enough, but that was dismal from Betty's Banjo. She stopped as if shot. Totally unfit, or problem? Does O'Neill ever give an indication of why they ran badly?

The loose horse was a bit of menace in the novice hurdle, but Outlaw Peter made very short work of the opposition, and looks to be on the improve. Not so sure the same applies to American Mike, in fact I would be asking what's gone wrong? Last year Elliott/Codd were happy to talk him up as the second coming. Now all of a sudden he looks slow and ponderous. He probably only won today because the second horse didn't get home. I would rip up any Ballymore tickets. I certainly wouldn't give up on Carrigmoorna Queen ending up better than today's opposition. She was simply outpaced over an inadequate trip. Better Days Ahead ended up another bumper dud for Elliott.

Will be having a glance at 200,000 purchase Fortunate Soldier in the opener at Aintree tomorrow, but other than that my main focus will be on the Breeders Cup.
Report differentdrum November 5, 2022 3:06 PM GMT
Two more O'Neill duffers today in Flight Deck and Monbeg Genius. Both looked very slow and ponderous at their obstacles. Flight Deck might prefer a stiffer track, but there was very little in that performance that suggested he would continue his sequence of winning every other start. Noticeable how plenty of O'Neill's rides spend too much time in the air. It can't just be coincidence, and clearly doesn't help, particularly if you are trying to make ground from off the pace.

Fortunate Sodier was absoltely dreadful at Aintree. Another one who ballooned the obstacles and looked paceless. Not the start you would want if you had sold a 200,000 horse to a big owner. He will probably step up to three miles, but on this evidence he still going to struggle. Even bigger disaster with Bowen having little impetus, and falling off Brewinupastorm. Lot of money invested in the Murphy yard, and he needs to do better.
Report differentdrum November 6, 2022 11:10 AM GMT
Copper Coin runs in the novice hurdle at Ffos Las. He looked slow in his bumpers so much so they actually made the running with him. Trip and ground should suit today, but I suspect he may well find a couple too good. I would sooner take the 4/1 Gladiatus than the 3/1 Copper Coin. Gladiatus ran with some promise before giving best at Chepstow. Surely Williams can't be treating everything as a win something three years down the line project? The favourite is short on the basis Honeyball will be expected to have him ready after the absence.

A couple of stayers running in the shorter novice hurdle. I wonder if the testing ground will enable them to get away with it against the ex-Flat horse? If that horse can jump I would have my doubts.

Will be looking out for Big Fish in the last at Sandown. I suspect he will want better ground, but the stable have run the odd decent one in a Sandown bumper. Presumably, he will be ridden to finish off.

Small loss, but enjoyed the Breeders Cup again. Just three winners and no places. Finding the each-ways was very hard. It was frustrating being on the likes of Order Of Australia at 28/1 and Broome at 18/1 then seeing the price tumble for no reward. In hindsight it was a poor decision to have opposed the Europeans on the first day. Next year I will probably wait until the draw and extra places before betting.
Report differentdrum November 6, 2022 6:02 PM GMT
Copper Cove apologies. Bit surprised O'Neill didn't go forward, But I think that is as good as he is at the moment. Likely he will need to rely on a decent handicap mark.

Terrible performance from Galdiatus who went backwards from Chepstow. Tudor is just schooling these around. If Williams wins a novice chances are that it's going to off a million. There's no way anyone, but a bookmaker could trust the outfit.

Rath Gaul Hill won the other novice very easily. He almost certainly beat nothing, but given he will appreciate stepping up in trip he looks to have a decent future. Drinkwater a stable to keep an eye on. This one was well punted.

Over in Ireland I liked the look of La Malmason. A half sister to Stage Star, she travelled very nicely on debut. Stable in very good form at present.

Garry Clermont has a second go at chasing at Carlisle. He had held every chance before making a horlicks of the second last on chasing debut over two miles. A strong traveller, but under achiever over hurdles, let's see if he can do any better tomorrow.
Report onlooker November 6, 2022 7:38 PM GMT
'Out of nowhere' -

Jonjo Wins the last at Ffos Las - with Blue Shark - 'a million to one' chance (by his standards) ...

- and - blind-sides everyone - including this Thread.
Report differentdrum November 6, 2022 8:55 PM GMT
Not good as I have tried to concentrate on the less exposed horses. That said I am not sure what optimistic note I could have struck given it hadn't been within 22 lengths in seven previous starts. He would still have been a 20/1 shot turning in, but he has won so easily the jock has decided he didn't even need a whip. It would have been lovely to know that the trainer had been consistently running the horse over the wrong trip and wrong ground. That's probably never happened before.
Report onlooker November 6, 2022 10:06 PM GMT
Indeed - differentdrum

I looked at the race - admittedly in no great detail, as it looked like a - 'nothing can win this race', race.

Did not even watch the race - and only on checking the Result, later - and Blue Shark's Form (to - like you - try and establish where that Win has 'come from') - saw this, form 3 outings ago .... riddden by the Son, of course - 50/1 opened 33/1

(jockey said, regarding running and riding, that his instructions were to ride handy and give gelding a good sight of his hurdles but not to use his whip as he is a fractious sort that needs cajoling;
he added that he was pleased by the way gelding handled the preliminaries and, once racing, settled well into the race and was able to sit mid-division, 6 or 7l off the leaders; however, when they picked up the pace halfway round the final bend he was unable to go with them and gelding came off the bridle making a mistake at the penultimate flight;
jockey maintained that gelding had no more to give down the home straight and therefore kept hold of his head to get him across the line and was only just able to maintain 4th position;  - (beaten 40 lengths)
he further added that, in his opinion, gelding felt weak and tired on today's good to soft ground but he considered that, once the gelding had strengthened up, he might be able to handle it better as well as benefitting from a longer trip) (op 33/1)
-----------

It handled the Soft ground OK, today.

10/1 out to odds between 20/1 and 25/1  when Opening Show came out at 16:12/16:13 - according to irishracing.con Betting Movements
Report gpz6316 November 6, 2022 10:43 PM GMT
its very difficult to assess any chance a jonjo horse has . he's a mystery wrapped up in a enigma as they say . generally they consume , when fancied by the public, a good amount of the book and disappoint regularly . I just ignore his runners , as i used to with mark johnstones until i figured him out . whenever you hear from jonjo its like hes out of it , cant remember what lies hes told so is as vague as possible and is as unhelpful as can be .
Report differentdrum November 7, 2022 10:05 AM GMT
He is rarely interviewed, for obvious reasons. The thing I have most difficulty with is the difference between how he was lauded by the public as a jockey, and all they get back now is the grin vacuum. All the secrecy does nothing to promote the sport. He makes Stoute look like an open book.   

There is similar horse entered at Hereford tomorrow, upped in trip with first time cheekpieces. I doubt that will be 20/1.
Report shoodacoodadidnt November 7, 2022 10:33 AM GMT
major bookies love him I'm sure - I always got him wrong as a jockey too .... ah well... this is the game - that outsider cost me a fortune - big win on 2nd and forecast 2nd and 3rd - and that thing came from nowhere with no good explanation (thanks Onlooker - clearly they were asked to explain something suspicious previously - interesting).
Report differentdrum November 7, 2022 5:58 PM GMT
The previously referred to Berties Bandana a non runner.

Henry Gondoff fleetingly showed some talent as a novice hurdler, but things very quickly went pear-shaped. Only the stable will know if they tinkered with anything, but this looks a very difficult task for his return. Not much to say about On The Bandwagon other than if this one wins the explanation will be interesting.
Report differentdrum November 7, 2022 7:22 PM GMT
Sadly, it looks like Lingfield will need a miracle tomorrow. Plenty more rain on top of standing water sounds close to impossible.

It certainly has been a case of be careful what you wish for with the weather. Not enough rain followed by too mach rain. Unfortunately, it seems this might well become the normal with ridiculously mild temperatures and heavy rain.
Report differentdrum November 8, 2022 11:35 AM GMT
On The Bandwagon 10/1-4/1. Perhaps it's one of those morining moves that fizzles out on track, or maybe some people think Jonjo has his script ready? Last 5 runs on good ground having not shown that much on a couple of tries on softer ground.
Report differentdrum November 8, 2022 4:27 PM GMT
Henry Gondoff ended up finishing fifth almost by default. He was the first under pressure, his jumping was tardy, and he doesn't exactly look in love with the game. Not a lot to be enthusiastic about. The horse in the last race ran as well as his form figures suggested he would. Market move presumably down to guessers hoping lightning might strike twice in a weak race.

I backed a couple at Lingfield. Grey D'alco ran, and was ridden as if he wasn't fit enough to win. When you only train a handful of winners can you really afford to pass up winning opportunities? I would be surprised if he isn't better than the two who beat him. At least I pocketed a little each-way money. Lieutenant Rocco wasn't quite so successful. He has travelled well enough, but literally stopped as if shot. What benefit is there to running horses on very testing ground that are unfit? Hosie needs to look for another trainer who is better than himself. That shouldn't be too difficult.
Report differentdrum November 9, 2022 10:29 AM GMT
Merveillo taken out so no runners today.

Not a bad card at Bangor despite the non runners.

I liked Le Milos last year, so much so I backed him for the Kim Muir. He was very disappointing at Doncaster. Recent chase wins at Exeter and Sandown. Is Bangor going to suit? You would think this should suit Grumpy Charley, but trainer and jock hardly in form.

The last is a decent race, but the market is all over Saint Palais.
Report differentdrum November 9, 2022 4:23 PM GMT
Escaped by backing Le Milos and Grumpy Charley. Very different runs. Le Milos plenty of promise for better things, Grumpy Charley next to none. If he is going to find another race over fences you would think it is going to have to be a small field where most of them can't handle deep ground. He drifted very badly just before the off. Their other runner, Mayhem Mya was backed, but she still looks the handful that she was last year.

A pathetic performance from Saint Palais in the last. Never travelled or jumped. You would think the trainer (who some are bigging up) might/should have had an inkling that could happen. The eventual winner was aided by another Clarke runner not seeing his race out.
Report differentdrum November 9, 2022 5:51 PM GMT
Highland Getaway runs in the opener at Market Rasen tomorrow. I am not that keen on Getaway's but this is from the very good Girseach line that has thrown up numerous high class winners, notably for Twiston-Davies. JP has bought into it with less success so given the stable connection he might have looked at this one. The favourite is going to be hard to beat, but given the pedigree you can see why the first quote of 14/1 with Bet 365 was taken.

A couple of ex-pointers have been punted in the longer novice, but I will be keeping an eye on the long absent Sinurita who clearly must have had problems since making her point debut two years ago. She was well beaten, but the impressive winner of that race has gone on to be very successful. Over at Taunton it will be interesting to see if Ooh Betty can step up on her reappearance when she travelled like a winner before stopping to nothing.
Report Whippin Piccadilly November 10, 2022 1:03 PM GMT
The eventual winner was aided by another Clarke runner not seeing his race out.

Completely disagree. See my post on your thread after his race at Carlisle.
Report Whippin Piccadilly November 10, 2022 1:16 PM GMT
The 3 Mile Novice hurdle at Cheltenham in December will tell them if they have a genuine Albert Bartlett contender.
Report differentdrum November 10, 2022 2:07 PM GMT
So you completely disagree that Dr Kananga weakened? I would have thought that was obvious.

Racing Post - 'Led, 4 lengths ahead after 3 out, soon ridden, headed 2 out, weakened approaching last'
Report Whippin Piccadilly November 10, 2022 2:35 PM GMT
This thread has turned into you rambling on and getting things completely wrong along with plenty of aftertiming. What exactly is the point of this thread, Drum?
Report Whippin Piccadilly November 10, 2022 2:47 PM GMT
differentdrum20 Oct 22 13:57Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 15,076 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Very frustrating from a punting angle. Second and third very likely to be better than the winner, but the winner has been given a ground saving ride, and ridden to win today. It is very hard to make up ground on that sort of surface. Skelton conceded at least seven lengths, and then bungled the third last. Eventually the ride has told and he has dropped away. So often Skelton rides that race, and he either has to have pounds in hand and/or everything has to go perfectly. It isn't a punter friendly way to ride. The second was scruffy at many hurdles, and consequently gave himself too much to do.
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Whippin Piccadilly
Whippin Piccadilly20 Oct 22 14:08Joined: 02 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 7,581 | Blogger: Whippin Piccadilly's blog
Second and third very likely to be better than the winner
Confused Not sure how you've come to that conclusion. But we all see races differently. My take on the race is
the unbeaten winner looks the type that just does enough. Thought he won with plenty in hand. The 2nd is an out and out stayer and if he gets a step up in trip on an equally stiff track next time out, I would be very interesting in backing him. The third looks a bit one paced and possibly needed the race


Do you still think the 2nd & 3rd will turn out better than the winner? Yes or No?
Report differentdrum November 10, 2022 2:51 PM GMT
Highland Getaway was clearly learning on the job today. If you backed him each-way you might be a bit miffed that he didn't learn quickly enough, and was beaten by a couple of rags. He should be better next time, but the form probably amounts to very little as it was a one-horse race. In the second race Sinurita was a late gamble 40/1-9/1, but having taken a scenic trip, quickly stopped to nothing. Presumably, unfit by about a half a mile. Not good when you are returning from a two year lay off. Over at Taunton Ooh Betty was also supported 10/1-11/2, but backers never had a prayer of collecting. She was always out of her ground under a shocking ride from Ben Jones. 

The Ballymore Novices looks the most interesting race on an average Cheltenham card tomorrow. It will be disappointing if Mullins can mop this up with one of his third division. At the moment I think Collectors Dream at 9/1 (three places) with Bet 365 looks the value. I am hoping he is better than the bare form of his hurdling debut when he was ridden for a change of pace over the minimum trip. I expect him to travel well, and it will be question of whether he is good enough in the straight. Hermes Allen won an ordinary race at Stratford looking a thorough stayer in the process. I liked him, but he might be better over further. Earlier on the card I would have thought that The Glancing Queen should have every chance in the handicap chase. Her first time record is very good, but she is relatively weak in the market, and I hardly ever get the King stable right.
Report Whippin Piccadilly November 10, 2022 2:54 PM GMT
Collectors Dream a bet then? Yes or No?
Report differentdrum November 10, 2022 3:06 PM GMT
WP

I don't really want to clutter things, but you have got something wrong, and now you are just resorting to having a pointless pop at the thread. It's typical of yourself and the forum in general. If you don't like the thread that's fine, I couldn't give a monkeys either way.

What is a fact is that there have been well over 5,000 views. I think that makes it relatively popular. Perhaps that's your problem? Perhaps some people actually enjoy what you refer to as rambling?
Report Whippin Piccadilly November 10, 2022 3:43 PM GMT
What did I get wrong about the Carlisle race? The 2nd at Bangor yesterday didn't see the race out because it was trying to win the race and was beaten by a much better horse. Can't you just admit that you got that Carlise race wrong and your assessment of the horse was wide of the mark? Of course you can't. You're Differentdrum. lol  But its no bother because you always recover things with an aftertimed bet! Grin

How about sticking some bets up with a P/L and a review the following day? And yes, you can blame jockeys and trainers for any losing bets. Devil
Report differentdrum November 11, 2022 6:19 PM GMT
Another quiet day for the stable tomorrow with just Yes Indeed at Wetherby. A bit of Grade 1 form in France, but nothing in three starts since the switch. No reported tweeks and guesswork as to whether this is a workable mark. No market support as yet, and you would think that a clean round is the priority. 

As for today both The Glancing Queen and Collectors Item were beaten almost from the start. The Glancing Queen lined up in a reasonable position, but her jumping quickly took her backwards, and the fences looked a real effort throughout. Presumably, they will go up in trip, but you couldn't be confident after what was probably her worst ever performance. Collectors Item ran as if he had been dropped in trip, outpaced and slow at the flights throughout. The only surprise was that he actually ended up running past a couple. The market told the story 9/1-4/1-9/1. Hard to believe that dire effort was just a ground issue, but I would assume it's back to the drawing board and try and win another novice over this trip under a penalty. 

Hermes Allen won very nicely, and the further he went the better he looked. I would have him nailed on as an Albert Bartlett type, but most of the top novices seem to avoid that race. Hopefully, they might consider the Bobs Worth route. It's going to be harder to gallop better horses into the ground over the intermediate trip. I couldn't understand why some analysts were talking about bringing him back in trip. If he really has so much speed why make the running? 

Mullins couldn't win that race, but I suspect he might be up to winning the last tomorrow. Good to see him giving Bryony Frost the ride. It isn't going to win, but I will keeping an eye on Love At Sea. The sire has made a very good start with just a handful of runners, but this one has a huge penalty to carry.

Over at Naas another couple of potentially useful mares, Ashroe Diamond and Halka Du Tabert, should top and tail the card.
Report differentdrum November 12, 2022 6:10 PM GMT
Still no real positives for Yes Indeed. His fencing doesn't seem to have improved much, and he is still spending too much time in the air. Even with a weight drop you couldn't fancy him off the back of that run. The jock picked up a winner for JP on Iroko who looked a particularly strong stayer at the trip.

Just the one for the stable again tomorrow, Springwell Bay in the Supreme Trial. This looks a weak race for the Grade, and it would be a surprise if any of them make much impact in March. None of them go in with form that has had much of a boost. I would favour Springwell Bay over Iberico Lord on the basis of his hurdling experience, but even that is going to be a limited advantage as it is very unlikely that he will be bounced out and make all.

Other than the Greatwood it looks a pretty shallow card.

Banbridge was my highlight at Cheltenham today. Given his accurate jumping, course form, and particularly the way he has now run through the line twice, I think the 16/1 is perfectly fair for the equivalent race in March. The question marks for me would be class and Slevin. Hopefully, O'Brien will at least steer him to the target, something that didn't happen with Le Richebourg in 2019.

The two mare's mentioned scrambled home at Naas. Neither was remotely impressive. Ashroe Diamond got into the bottom of virtually every hurdle, and that technique won't work in better races. Two disasters for Blackmore coming down with both races in the balance, and having sat still on the approach to both fences.

Finally, it would be amiss not to mention two very fine rides by Charlie Deutsch at Uttoxeter. Two excellent examples of giving inexperienced horses every chance to win without giving them too hard a race. Hopefully, Daly will be giving him plenty of opportunities. Three winners from four runners for the yard which might well have been a full house had Alice Stevens not given Jimmy The Digger an over confident ride.
Report differentdrum November 13, 2022 5:12 PM GMT
More farcical stuff with flights omitted due to the low sun. Navan started their card nearly an hour an a half earlier couldn't Cheltenham have done exactly the same with what was only a six race card.

Springwell Bay didn't jump well enough even with the flights omitted, and was also exposed for a gear at that trip. I should imagine it's up in trip, and dropped in class next time.

It's a funny old game quite often where jocks are concerned. Twiston-Davies had dreadful rounds yesterday on Stolen Silver, and again today on Fantastikas. Both beaten favourites. Then after a shambles at the start he goes on to land the Greatwood. Even in that race he lost a couple of lengths at the first. Harbour Lake was badly outpaced in that race, but should resume winning ways upped in trip. Perhaps with a return for the Coral Cup down the line.

Over in Ireland 'Bob was back' or was he, in fact was he ever there in the first place? Along with Envoi Allen and Samcro, he has been one of the biggest hype horses in recent years. Today he was turned over by 28/1 shot having stuck his head in the air, and found next to nothing off the bridle. I am happy to watch him do it as you can go penniless following horses who display those sort of traits.

Yet another reverse for Elliott and short price takers in the bumper.

Few more runners for O'Neill tomorrow.

Toute Chic is probably the first horse they have had for the Kendricks. Kendrick gets no outside rides for good reason, and this filly will need to show massive improvement on her stable debut to be competitive in this race.

Hungry Hill got too far behind on his bumper debut, and was ultimately outpaced in a slowly run race. The three who beat him have all won races since. It is a surprise to see him start at the minimum, albeit on a stiff track. Even so I would expect this to be too sharp a test, and a staying on fifth or sixth would seem the most likely outcome.

Came From Nothing is an interesting debutant in the bumper. He was relatively expensive at 62,000, but would probably have been more expensive had he been sold after his half sister, Marie's Rock, had won the Mare's Hurdle. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him in the shake up, but of the newcomers I would prefer Big Fish, who had been due to make his debut in the abandoned Sandown race.
Report paulo47 November 13, 2022 5:59 PM GMT
Slevin must have read your comment yesterday ....
Report differentdrum November 14, 2022 4:45 PM GMT
Pretty much as expected today. The Composeur was also very disappointing in an earlier race. I would give Hungry Hill another chance over a longer trip. He started off okay, but it looked as if he got very short short of room, and from that point continually ballooned his hurdles. I have already commented about O'Neill's rides spending too much time in the air, but this was an extreme case. Hopefully, his confidence can be repaired. The horse in the last was ultimately weak in the market, and was tapped for toe in a race run at a dawdle. Hard not to feel a bit peeved about Big Fish with Bellamy ending up in a very poor track position, and having to quickly find 5 lengths on the winner. Even then had he switched his whip into his left hand and given him a couple of taps he would probably still have won. The winner had finished behind Love In Sea in her point just emphasising what a dire ride Reddington gave that one at Cheltenham a couple of days ago.

Three at Hereford tomorrow. Playtogetaway was the horse I thought was going to beat Idalko Bihoue in his point. He was outpaced in a ordinary Warwick bumper, and it looks a strange move to run him over the minimum at Hereford. It would be a big surprise if he was quick enough, and maybe the idea is to get him handicapped, and then step up in trip. All For Glory was dreadful on hurdling debut when her jumping was poor, and she stopped to nothing. She goes up in trip, but on that evidence it is hard to be optimistic. By far the best chance of a winner appears to be Magic Seven is the closing bumper. He must have a good chance, particularly if the newcomers are not up to much.
Report differentdrum November 15, 2022 4:29 PM GMT
Again not too many surprises with the two novices disappearing into the distance. All The Glory jumped a bit better, but again has stopped to nothing. Magic Seven won nicely, but I doubt he beat very much. It might be pushing it to concede a penalty. Bailey sheep getting their fingers burnt again.

Three impressive winners for Elliott at Fairyhouse. Harmonya Maker outstayed the favourite in the opener, and is clearly very useful under these conditions. Big question is whether this ground is vital. Having backed Geri Colombe for both Festival novice hurdles before he had jumped a hurdle it was disappointing not to get a run in the Albert Bartlett. That said his jumping of a hurdle was  scruffy at best, and I doubt in hindsight he would have beaten The Nice Guy. Although he was by no means extravagant his jumping of a fence was much better. I would imagine he will eventually be upped to three miles, or even further. I have a feeling that Search For Glory is better than the bare result in the bumper. I doubt he will stick around in bumpers, but he should make a fair staying novice hurdler ahead of the expected chasing career.

Two for O'Neill on a decent Warwick card. Even without the recent Henderson recruit the staying novice hurdle looks like a Graded race. Pride Rock makes his debut in the shorter novice. A half brother to Beauport, at 80,000 he was a relatively expensive store. He is likely to need a stiffer test, and this looks a very tough ask against a couple of useful looking rivals. The closing bumper doesn't look the hottest race, but my guess would be that Walk Of No Shame is running for place money again. She seems to lack a gear. My preference would be for On Se Calme, who having made her debut in a hot race, made the running to win next time. The obvious negative would be that it is almost unheard of for a King runner to make the running in a bumper, in fact it is rare in any race.
Report differentdrum November 16, 2022 4:31 PM GMT
Walk Of No Shame having looked booked for fifth outstayed her rivals inside the final furlong. Walk In Park's are not noted for wanting attritional conditions, but this was probably more about a stamina test than the ground. It makes you wonder if she would have had better results had she been sent forward rather than wait for a gear that wasn't there. It seems very likely she will need two and a half miles plus over hurdles. On Se Calme was weak in the market, and ran no race at all. She ended up nearly last and was effectively beaten before halfway. Assuming she was the fit the ground looks a big negative. Pride Rock was an eyecatcher in the first novice hurdle. He was never at the races, but could well have finished fifth if he hadn't run up the back of other horses. Needless to say he should do much better upped in trip. The horse in the veteran's chase raced prominently, but stopped as if shot.

The novice hurdles presented the bookmakers with two early Christmas presents. Yesterday Williams had two runners that went off 100/30 and were beaten a combined total of 85 lengths taking his losing run to 31. It was inevitable if he won one of these it would go off a huge price. How could anyone back anything he runs in a novice hurdle? As I said earlier Tudor has just been schooling them round. It probably wasn't the greatest race with presumably the favourite not coping with the ground, and the second favourite wanting a longer trip. On paper the staying novice looked really strong, but virtually everything at the top of the market disappointed. The favourite had a relatively easy lead and looked to be beaten on merit. It was a stiff ask for Spring Meadow, and an even stiffer one if you bungle nearly every hurdle. Twiston-Davies must rack up more mistakes than any other supposedly leading jock. Get Up Mush travelled as if he was running through glue, failing to reproduce anything like the Carlisle run. That said the winner won well for a stable who have been in the doldrums for a while.

Jonbon did it nicely against a rival who seemed to jump fences better than hurdles. Whether it was good enough to justify the short prices for the Arkle I am not so sure.

More modest offerings tomorrow, and no stable runners.
Report differentdrum November 17, 2022 5:46 PM GMT
Three stable runners tomorrow.

Broughshane makes his rules debut having travelled on the front end, and ran out an easy winner of his only point. It probably wasn't the strongest race, but he won in good style and was subsequently purchased for 150,000. He looked to enjoy the testing conditions, but horses can very easily make fools of you in that respect. I thought the testing conditions would be ideal for Transmission today, and it looked like he hated it, despite his previous runs under similar. This doesn't look the strongest Ascot novice so unless the Henderson horse is better than he has looked so far, Broughshane looks to have a decent chance.

Gary Clermont had been due to resume his chasing career at Carlisle so we can assume he has been ready for a while. This is a trappy little race, but if he jumps well (I always think Ascot is a difficult test as they quite often get racing early) I can see him also having every chance. His three hurdle runs at the course look solid.

Over at Chepstow it looks as if Cawthorne Lad is up against it. He looks a little too exposed, and the soft ground is unlikely to be in his favour.

I think it's a shame that Ascot feel the need to stage five handicaps tomorrow. If Grade 1 tracks are pandering to bookmakers what hope is there? Credit to Chepstow for only having the three tomorrow.

The novice races are not as good as some of those earlier in the season, but there are still a few interesting runners. I like Hold Up La Colmine in the first one. He travelled as well as anything on rules debut, and a repeat should be good enough in a weaker race. These days Hobbs has limited resources and he needs to be winning with this type of horse. Later on the card Doyen Star looks the speedier of two Williams recruits, but he has been put in plenty short enough given the guesswork over fitness and ground. I did think about Connolly at 14/1 (now gone) in the bumper, but couldn't stomach the prospect of another Bellamy hands and heels job.
Report GLASGOWCALLING November 18, 2022 11:07 AM GMT
Noticed the runner up to Broughshane ( Copshill Lad) won a bumper easily for Milton Harris.
Report differentdrum November 18, 2022 2:13 PM GMT
Has Jonjo been giving out some 'naughty pills'?

Maybe the horses are so used to being held up? Seriously, you couldn't have guessed that was going to happen from the previous two flights, although he did start throwing his head about on the approach. You have to hope it was just the distraction of the loose horse. He was the money horse late in a race that I doubt took too much winning. I don't have that many bets, but that's the second run out in a couple of weeks following the bumper horse at Cheltenham. Has there been another in the meantime?

It didn't seem as if O'Neill was ready for the antics of Garry Clermont either. He got back into contention, but in truth he was an accident waiting to happen. Assuming all is well I presume it's back over hurdles.

Over at Chepstow a very easy win for Firestream despite not looking the full shilling. Shocking performance from Hold Up La Colmine. You win nothing trying to strangle a horse for a mile, and in the end he was lucky to hang on to third. Even if he had settled it seems very unlikely that he would have troubled the winner. Another Hobbs false dawn. He really needs to step up. Does he have one promising young horse?
Report differentdrum November 18, 2022 5:11 PM GMT
Nice to see Finn Lambert ride the bumper winner after two decent rides earlier. He has a nice chance on Arizona Cardinal tomorrow, and a win on that might spark a few more chances. His efforts were in stark contrast to the ride by Bellamy on the Lavelle bumper horse. If you are on a third favourite in one of these races you should never be thinking of conceding 15 lengths to the favourites. The horse didn't take a pull so he could have ridden exactly the same race about 10 lengths closer. Is the guy trying to make himself the Spencer of the jumps game? As it happens the horse has shown about as much ability as a 200/1 shot. There was a time when the stable didn't fart about in these races. I am surprised they think they can now.

Hard to believe tomorrow can be any worse for O'Neill yard.

Scarface should be hard to beat in the opener, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if Are U Wise To That gave him something to think about. It's a decent pedigree and his bumper win has received a couple of boosts. I don't know much about the breeding of Beachcomber in the bumper other than to say the sire was a good ground horse who hasn't produced anything of note. At Haydock the question is whether Easysland will ever recapture his cross country form. The move seems to have been a disaster, and a mere completion would now look like a success. What price would he have been for this sort of race prior to the move?

Elsewhere the well touted Might I should have every chance at Haydock in the stayers hurdle. It would be nice to see him brush up his hurdling. At Ascot I am hoping a stronger pace will see So Scottish in a better light than the Carlisle match.

I like Henderson, but it is hard to believe he is thinking of not running Constitution Hill. In the golden era of hurdling (67-81) did horses ever duck challenges on account of the ground? Would he pull out of Champion Hurdle on tomorrow's ground? I can only assume we are breeding them softer and softer.
Report penzance November 18, 2022 5:18 PM GMT
Any news on Garry Clermont?
cheers
Report differentdrum November 18, 2022 7:04 PM GMT
It was a very nasty fall, but I am assuming he is okay as there is nothing in the analysis of the race to suggest otherwise. If that isn't true it was an even worse day than I thought.
Report differentdrum November 19, 2022 4:15 PM GMT
Two non runners, and another dire performance from Easysland. It's as if someone has removed the engine. Is it really worth carrying on with him?

Non runners the key words on a very poor day for racing. Three of the 'big four' were no shows, and the only one that did turn up totally bombed. A Plus Tard is a real puzzle. That's a ninth defeat in just fifteen chase starts. He finds a way to lose far too often to be declared a superstar. Perhaps on his day he has just proved himself the best of what is an ordinary bunch of staying chasers?

Not much to say about Ascot other than I think if you swapped the jockeys on Boothill and So Scottish you would probably get a different result. So Scottish must have lost around five lengths with mistakes and switching and as a stayer he was never going to peg that back. O'Sullivan has looked good booting home some penalty kicks for Connell, but today he looked out of his depth. Burke on the other hand is fast becoming the weighing room go to job jockey. That win will probably help Fry forget about the seemingly overrated Might I. That was an horrendous trip pulling too hard and bungling his way round.

Over in Ireland he had zero competition, but Kilcruit made a nice shape at his fences in the novice chase, and Absolute Notions outstayed Deep Cave who had looked to be travelling the better, in the novice hurdle.
Report differentdrum November 19, 2022 6:21 PM GMT
Two handicappers tomorrow at Exeter, Holly and Half The Freedom.

As a Graded bumper winner I would imagine hopes were high that Holly would be better than a 125 handicapper. That said last season she beat several subsequent winners easily at Wincanton, and started this one with a reasonable third to the easy winner, Sonigino. She has second top weight tomorrow, but doesn't have to concede that much weight. A little bit of progress from Chepstow should give her every chance. Despite the prices I would much prefer her chance to the much shorter priced Half The Freedom. He has a pretty modest flat pedigree, but didn't run on the flat. Having gone off big prices all starts last season he seemed to show improvement when finishing runner up on seasonal debut. In that race he either didn't travel, or was outpaced (he is upped in trip tomorrow), and to my eyes seemed to find the jumping element a real effort. It's a moderate race, but I couldn't have him at 5/2.

A few interesting races at Punchestown tomorrow, and over here hopefully Bear Ghylls can land his first chasing win, and fingers crossed that Quinlan will make sufficient use of the strong staying Harjo in the opener. The current market suggests he won't.
Report differentdrum November 20, 2022 11:55 AM GMT
All four horses mentioned very weak in the market despite obvious form chances. Let's see how many bomb.
Report differentdrum November 20, 2022 4:59 PM GMT
The answer to the question 4/4, a very easy day for the layers.

Nothing wrong with the ride on Harjo, he just looked embarrassingly slow. The two placed horses from that Carlisle novice have now both bombed next time. Have they just failed to reproduce, or are they not much cop? Given he was a Grade 1 novice hurdler, Bear Ghylls would have been odds on sitting in third and jumping well, but the moment he was asked for an effort he just looked like a very slow plodder. The market 5/4-100/30 seemed to know something wasn't right beforehand? How was that possible? The stable has had a terrible time, and this looks like the nail in the coffin. Nobody is going to want to know the horse after such a wretched performance.

So to the two O'Neill runners. Holly started off in a fairly prominent position, but O'Neill has pretty quickly just allowed her to drop back, and from that position he has just made no effort. The ride, if you can call it that, was a disgrace. This was the third favourite, not a 200/1 shot. Punters got no run for their money, and deserve protection from this sort of thing which brings the game into disrepute. I still haven't seen O'Neill ride a good race all season. He is no more than adequate at best. The stable would have at least as many winners, if not more, if McClernon took the rides. As for the one in the last race he always looked to be struggling, and eventually faded away to nothing.
Report differentdrum November 20, 2022 5:17 PM GMT
Can't really see the market reaction to State Man's win at Punchestown. His jumping is far from slick, and didn't he just do what was expected? Why wasn't Constitution Hill in the race? Sad to see the performance of Embassy Gardens at Cork. He very much looks the part, but he also looks a dog. He didn't want to go past the leader today. Russell out rode O'Keeffe, and although O'Keeffe got on well with The Nice Guy that horse is straightforward, and he hasn't looked up to the job on others for Mullins and Nolan.

Two runners for the stable at Kempton, and I doubt either will trouble the places. Carrigdoun Boy has already been exposed, and Orrisdale would need a personal best to figure.
Report differentdrum November 21, 2022 4:31 PM GMT
Not too sure what to make of Carrigdoun Boy. Clearly he wasn't fancied so has he improved for the softer ground, or has he took advantage of several rivals not turning up? Orrisdale didn't offer much hope. Just a little puzzled why you would line up on the front end if you wanted to race fifth or sixth. Isn't it preferable to drive one along on the front end rather than wait until he has dropped back through the field?

Just the one in the bumper tomorrow, Letmetellusomethin. I think he is of some interest at big price. He looked very straightforward on debut, but couldn't find a gear in the straight. That looked a better race than tomorrow, and the form has already received a couple of boosts. Hopefully, the softer ground will see him in a better light. The Nicholls horse went for 245,000, but the form his win has yet to be tested.

Later on the card Blenkinsop tries to follow up his Ludlow win. He only went up 4lbs which for me leaves him at least 10lbs well in. The big question is how much of that advantage is negated by Hugh Nugent?
Report differentdrum November 22, 2022 4:00 PM GMT
A sensible ride from O'Neill, close to front in a slowly run race. I doubt I will be saying that too often. Well beaten, but a comfortable each-way collection at a big price. Perhaps one or two might now realise Blenkinsop was given an awful ride last time, but crossed the line with a ton in hand? Nugent didn't get the stride right on a couple of occasions, but he has ended up winning like a 1/5 shot. Even the handicapper might notice this time.

No stable runners tomorrow.

The two bumpers look pretty average. I will be keeping an eye on Inebranlable in the Hereford race. Fortunately, I managed to have a small bet before Bet 365 cut him from 20/1-8/1. He was eventually well beaten in an English point, but the winner was subsequently sold for 205,000, and it might have been an above average race.
Report differentdrum November 23, 2022 4:45 PM GMT
Well the least said about Inebranlable the better. At least punters didn't have to wait long to know their fate. Never at the races and no promise whatsoever. If they were that worried about trying to be competitive why waste a run? That's the second recent Clarke/Jones effort that has looked like a schooling exercise having attracted some market support. The first of those Ooh Betty runs tomorrow in a race judged on her last performance she has zero chance of winning.

Two for O'Neill tomorrow. Henry Gondoff swaps hurdles for fences, and Brogan for McLernon. You have to have doubts that either is going to make the huge difference he is likely to need. He was the first under pressure on that seasonal debut, and he didn't look in love with the game. It was a surprise that he actually finished. I suppose his only chance rests in handling conditions better than some of his rivals. Itso Fury is perhaps a surprise handicap runner. You might have thought that he would have been upped in class in a conditions race. Perhaps the key is looking for better ground and trying to get a bit more experience as he has only beaten a small number of rivals. It's guesswork if 124 is lenient, but I would rather watch him do it at around 3/1.
Report differentdrum November 24, 2022 4:13 PM GMT
Henry Gondoff as bad as expected. The future is not looking bright. Itso Fury probably ran a personal best in defeat. The times indicated that the going was not the good that was given.

Four runners tomorrow. Highland Getaway took a long time to get the idea on debut, and if he shows the benefit of that experience looks to have at least a decent place chance. Also Known As showed nothing on debut, and although it looks a weak race, looks hard to fancy. File Illico  was progressive at a low level, but his only defeat in the last four came at Ffos Las, and this is much more competitive than any of his wins. The ground may also be softer than ideal. Soaring Glory makes his chasing debut. Not sure he has ever been one to trust. He has the scope for fences, but he wasn't the greatest jumper of a hurdle. On the plus side he has a 100% first time record so perhaps tomorrow is the day to catch him?
Report sageform November 25, 2022 8:38 AM GMT
They are either not yet in form or not much good on this season's evidence.
Report differentdrum November 25, 2022 10:51 AM GMT
Irrespective of ability, I think it is hard to string much together if you hold up vitually every runner. I wouldn't be giving up just yet. There are impressive point winners such as Red Dirt Road and The Gooner to come.

Also Known As taken out. I am a bit surprised that Highland Getaway is such a big price. Plenty in this family liked a bit of cut. It is a big day for Soaring Glory, and given his first time record he is hard to rule out.
Report differentdrum November 25, 2022 5:06 PM GMT
Four became two. I was very surprised it wasn't one as there wasn't much in favour of File Illico and 4/1-18/1 tells the story. Although he ended up well beaten Highland Getaway again showed a bit of promise. It didn't look like he had learnt too much from his debut, but once McLernon grabbed hold he jumped much better and kept staying on. It looks like he needs strong handling so hopefully, McLernon will keep the ride.

At Newbury the feature fought out by a couple of pensioners just highlighted how much the stayers division is ripe for something from left field. Following that Warwick novice Lacey did the bookmakers another nice turn in the novice chase. Jet Powered did all you could hope for in the opener. Not sure why Skelton thought it was wise to give him 3-4 lengths start. Doubt Stay Away Fay is anywhere near Hermes Allen's level. He looked booked for second until the Henderson horse ran out of petrol. Paint The Dream has done me a favour in the past, but I got him totally wrong today. Usually a front runner I wonder how many who backed him today thought he would take a lead. His next performance might confirm whether it was as good as it looked, or the race actually fell apart.

Hopefully, three runners tomorrow. It looks a huge ask for Petit Tonnerre off topweight on ground that could well be quicker than ideal. At Bangor I think Gwennie May Boy has every chance of defying his penalty. He was quite impressive for an 80/1 shot over course and distance, and given a step up in trip should be no issue, the testing ground should help his cause. Walk In My Shoes hasn't gone the right way since chasing home Magic Daze in a point, but if the wind op has worked this is a winnable race. The stable could do with a winner.
Report differentdrum November 26, 2022 4:38 PM GMT
Not a bad day with a winner, and two crossbars. Very good no nonsense ride from Jaime Brace on Walk In My Shoes. Job done in getting her winning bracket. Gwennie May Boy was outpaced by what looks a decent prospect. He would have been better off in the longer novice hurdle. Very good effort from Petit Tonnerre who travelled well, but couldn't peg the winner back. A race like the Coral Cup would seem an obvious target.

A day of many decent performances. Le Milos did me a rare ante-post favour. I wasn't sure about the ground, but his jumping was near faultless, and he was very game up the straight. Not convinced by either Luccia or McFabulous. Luccia is flat bred, and I just wonder how long she will last, and McFabulous was a bridle job against a very poor jumper. Constitution Hill couldn't have done anything more in beating a very likely on the wain Epatante, and Not So Sleepy who Burke failed to strangle, and ended up bungling his way around. I have backed L'Homme Presse for the Gold Cup, but on today's evidence I would be concerned about his jumping. He made one really bad blunder under no real pressure, and it seemed as if Deutsch was at pains not to ask him at any fence. He will have to do that in a stronger race. For me Inothewayurthinkin was the pick of the Gowran winners. He jumps really well, has a good attitude, and would probably appreciate a stiffer test.
Report differentdrum November 26, 2022 8:21 PM GMT
Big raid at Carlisle tomorrow in a bid to add to the successes earlier this season.

Having been pulled out of Newbury, Soaring Glory has quickly been found another opportunity. Even if first time is the time to catch him I think I would have preferred the 9/1 on Friday than the 6/4 tomorrow. It's not a bad little field for a northern novice. The Gooner sold for 280,000 having run out an easy winner of his only point. He finished strongly in an attritional contest with only two finishers. He might end up better over further, but it will be disappointing if the penalised runner proves too good. I am not sure what has kept Annie Mc off the track, but you would imagine she would need a personal best in order to make a winning return. Flight Deck doesn't travel or jump, but despite those obvious negatives he has won races, including over course and distance when he was still fifth at the final flight. He has dropped a pound for a very poor return in a better race at Aintree. Again Clarke/Jones provide the main opposition. Morning Spirit hasn't fulfilled the promise of his chasing debut, and this doesn't look any easier. Beachcomber was pulled out of an Ascot bumper and has found what looks a very weak race. As I said previously the sire was a good ground horse so perhaps a surprise to see him pulled out on that sort of ground.
Report differentdrum November 27, 2022 4:04 PM GMT
A very much more down than up day for the stable with the jock again emphasising his bang average quality in the saddle. The moment he allowed Soaring Glory to drop back to last alarm were ringing. You can sometimes get away with the odd blunder on the front, but not if you are continually trying to make up ground. The Gooner didn't travel, and looked terribly slow. On that evidence even upped to three miles you wouldn't be convinced he would be competitive. Annie Mc faded tamely in a race where the favourite looked an absolute dog. By the fourth race the rider seemed to finally grasp the idea that being closer to the pace wasn't a bad move. In fact given his previous runs you would have thought Flight Deck was a different animal. Perhaps the drop in grade helped, but I wouldn't be sure he woiuld reproduce next time. Morning Spirit travelled and jumped well throughout and this looked a step up for a horse who was previously just 1/17. Beachcomber looked very ordinary in a poor bumper.

More decent racing in Ireland. After American Mike made a winning hurdling debut I suggested he was so unimpressive you could rip up Ballymore tickets. A few might agree now. Unfortunately, I took him on with Affordale Fury and Three Card Brag. The latter must have gone close had he run. Grangeclare West was impressive enough in the novice where My Trump Card was a big eyecatcher. The Big Dog was a game winner of the feature. If only he could jump a little better. I flagged him as a young horse on here, and it's taken a bit of time for him to fulfill his potential.
Report differentdrum November 27, 2022 4:15 PM GMT
One runner tomorrow, Locks Corner at Catterick. Two years ago he was 20lbs higher over fences, but most of his 'form' (mainly in very small fields) since then has been rubbish. Last time he ran Blenkinsop close which reads well, but the winner was given a dreadful ride, and actually won with a ton in hand. It's an ordinary class 4 handicap, but I wouldn't be parting with anything at 4/1.
Report differentdrum November 28, 2022 6:41 PM GMT
Locks Corner made it three wins in three daysfor the yard. All handicappers who had something to prove. You wouldn't have thought the softer than forecast ground was ideal for Locks Corner, but he ended up being the only horse to finish his race off. It will interesting to see if he can back this up. It's going to be even more interesting to see what mark Blenkinsop gets. 

Another big raid tomorrow, this time at Southwell. Five runners, all with chances, and only one winner might be considered a disappointing haul.

Trapista turned in a very safe round of jumping on chasing debut. You would hope the extra distance should help, but she does have to concede a few pounds to some potential improvers. Pyffo was a 62,000 3yo, and related to Mr Glass and Yanworth, he probably has the most eyecatching pedigree in the race. It would be no surprise if he goes close, and as I write the 3/1 is going. Red Dirt Road's point win has been franked by the next three home, and that form would seem to give him every chance. Unfortunately, he made all to win that point, and even over two miles history suggests there is very little chance of O'Neill being sensible enough to adopt similar tactics. Unlike the stable's recent handicap winners, Biowavego looks to be on a nice upward curve. I thought he was impressive at Worcester and he looks the one to beat tomorrow. Bertie's Bandana was pulled out with a self certificate a couple of weeks ago. He still steps up in trip tomorrow, but without the previously declared cheek pieces. It wouldn't be that much of a surprise if he is better than 95 and this looks a pretty ordinary class 5.
Report differentdrum November 29, 2022 4:04 PM GMT
Again just the one winner on a generally disappointing day. Trapista's best asset is her jumping, and that is completely wasted holding her up for a change of pace she doesn't have. She was nearly brought down which can be another issue with hold up rides. Despite market support Pyffo didn't look the full shilling from the start, but has run well enough before being swamped for pace by a better looking model. Lavelle wins bumper minus Bellamy. Pyffo looks a stayer, and there wouldn't seem much point hanging about in bumpers. Fortunately, Red Dirt Road tugged O'Neill to the front, and stayed on well enough to hold off the runner up. It was a poor race, and presumably, he will now be upped to a more suitable trip. I have said before horses continually make you look foolish, and Biowavego was a prime example. He coped with soft ground at Worcester, but today he hasn't travelled a yard, and the writing was on the wall way before the interference. A mystifying performance from a previously progressive horse. A massive drifter, Bertie's Bandana didn't look to be enjoying things before ejecting O'Neill in the last.
Report differentdrum November 29, 2022 4:19 PM GMT
Three tomorrow. Merveillo makes his debut at Haydock. It's a very ordinary starting point, but the concern would be that they think he is so slow he needs three miles. At Ludlow, The Composeur is 8lbs lower than his last winning mark, but signs of encouragement were not obvious last time. He went close on his previous run over course and distance, and drying ground should help. Cawthorne Banker has the best form on offer in the bumper. That initial start was nearly two months ago and it does make you wonder if he might have had a little setback since.
Report differentdrum November 30, 2022 4:17 PM GMT
The winner a day never looked likely to continue. Merveillo was a huge drifter, and although McLernon managed to get him to jump, he very slow. The Composeur just did what The Composeur does these days, makes the running, gets headed, and fades away. Cawthorne Banker, another market drifter, appeared to run his race, but found two unexposed ones too good. Despite his pedigree better ground might suit. Another very disappointing gamble on a Bailey horse.
Report differentdrum November 30, 2022 4:39 PM GMT
Three runners on a typically poor Leicester card. On The Bandwagon appears to have found a race to match his current level of ability. Imperial Bede has also landed in what looks an ordinary novice. He raced too freely in the Aintree bumper before stopping to nothing. The horse was also keen and displayed a high head carriage in his French starts. The market may be the best guide, at least the only one we have. Again it is a moderate race, but I can't have Dollar Bae until she is upped in trip.

Just reverting back to today that was a big opportunity for Jordan Nailor on Beauport, but horse and jock were not up to the job. That Carlisle race is not working out.
Report sageform December 1, 2022 11:06 AM GMT
they do seem to be running a lot of very moderate horses in the last 2 weeks! Are they all being lined up for a handicap win off 80-90?
Report Whippin Piccadilly December 1, 2022 1:20 PM GMT
Chianti Classico Cool
Report Whippin Piccadilly December 1, 2022 1:27 PM GMT
The Pikar form was given a nice boost at Haydock yesterday. It will be interesting to see which race he turns up in after being pulled out of his intended target on Saturday
Report differentdrum December 1, 2022 2:35 PM GMT
I don't think they are holding anything back, these are the best they have got. The worry is if you can't pick up the scraps you aren't going to get much at the top table. Collectors Item was dreadful upped in class.

As for today On The Bandwagon showed a bit more enthusiasm perhaps in part due to the better ground. The slip and taking off too early at the ditch didn't help his cause. Imperial Bede must have been one of the biggest drifters of the season 5/2-25/1. He looked awkward in the early stages, but he was within striking distance before it appeared that O'Neill made a decision not to try very hard from two out. The Stewards should have asked the question as to what he was thinking, but I don't even need to look to see if they did. Dollar Bae ran out a comfortable winner of a very poor race.
Report differentdrum December 1, 2022 4:10 PM GMT
Four runners at Exter tomorrow. Sideshift has been consistently dreadful since joining the stable, and hard to believe it will be any different in the opener. Pride Rock was an eyecatcher on debut, but chances are this slightly stiffer test isn't going to be enough to see him any better than fifth or sixth. It seems a trait of the stable to keep running horses over inadequate trips, presumably to try and get a better handicap mark? This horse should be good enough to actually win a novice hurdle. Why not try and do that? Maypole Class seems to either win or pull up. Last time the representative could offer no explanation for the improved form. How often is that trotted out? This is much harder. I think Impatient is a first stable runner for Ronnie Bartlett who doesn't seem to have too many bad ones. Chances are it wouldn't need to be that good to win this.
Report differentdrum December 1, 2022 6:47 PM GMT
Just noticed that Iron Bridge is due to run off top weight in a 6,000 handicap at Chepstow on Saturday. What is the point? Surely you look for a Graded race on a galloping track, and see whether you have a Brown Advisory horse? If he isn't then you look at handicaps. If he manages to win on Saturday you are still left wondering.
Report liberator of the oppressed December 1, 2022 7:50 PM GMT
Has that one ran at Sandown come out again was fav they backed Hendersons one of JP's that sadly died cannot find name.
Report differentdrum December 2, 2022 3:59 PM GMT
Impatient taken out, presumably ground too soft? Earlier Springshift managed to beat a couple of rags having jumped left on occasion. He looked plenty short enough at 18/1. I still think there is a potential punt down the line with Pride Rock. On both runs I think the rides have led to him finishing further back than his actual level of ability. Today he was ridden close to the pace and effectively burst over a trip too short. It's the last thing anyone using the extra places would have wanted, and probably didn't do the horse much good either. Maypole Class moved nicely into contention. It was difficult to see what happened two out, but the rider immediately gave up. Assuming it didn't sustain an injury you would think it would be of some interest next time.

Also at Exeter Blenkinsop completed a very easy hat trick. That's three wins despite the rides. Unfortunately, you couldn't guarantee that Hugh Nugent wouldn't find trouble in a two-horse race. I liked the attitude of Hugos New Horse at Sandown. It looks like he keeps a bit back for himself which should help his handicap mark.
Report differentdrum December 2, 2022 4:34 PM GMT
Six runners tomorrow, five and Chepstow and Cloth Cap goes to Aintree.

It's been pretty much downhill for Cloth Cap since he followed up his surprise Ladbroke win. It will be another big surprise if he is in the mix tomorrow. The angle for Destin D'ajonc is his 2/2 Chepstow record, but he has a very poor first time out record. Time To Get Up runs off his Midlands Grand National winning mark, but I am not sure tomorrow presents a stiff enough test. Already discussed Iron Bridge. I am not sure why he is running here. What's the aspiration? It will be disappointing if he can't at least concede the weight to his stablemate. Big Ambitions was a 90,000 3yo and a full brother to Death Duty. Let's hope he is a bit more clued up than the Shantou horse the stable ran at Southwell.

At Sandown I quite fancied Homme Public but not at the price. Jock is on a losing run, and has cocked up on several occasions this season. That certainly hasn't been factored in.
Report paulo47 December 2, 2022 5:07 PM GMT
Iron Bridge will do well to give a stone to Fergal's horse .
Report saxon farm December 2, 2022 5:55 PM GMT
I think Cloth Cap will outrun his odds.
Report differentdrum December 3, 2022 10:56 AM GMT
Much talk about races over here, but chances are the really interesting races for the future are the novice hurdles and bumper at Fairyhouse. Everyone will be watching Facile Vega, but I will be keeping a close eye on the likes of Hartur D'Arc, Arctic Bresil and the horse who benefitted from his departure, Nick Rockett. There are many others.
Report differentdrum December 3, 2022 4:20 PM GMT
Another shocking day for O'Neill again advertising his lack of talent. His dad shouldn't have to wonder why they are making no progress. The question is why would big owners throw big money at this outfit? The jock is tactically inept, consistently loses ground at fences, and is basically weak.

Destin D'ajonc was beaten running through the tape. He immediately lost his position, was slow at fence after fence, and that was that. A terrible performance. Similar story with Time To Get Up. He lasted a few more fences. The icing on the cake of terrible was Iron Bridge where O'Neill was completely outridden by the stable's 7lb claimer. You could ditch O'Neill tomorrow and just use McLernon and Brace, and you might even see an improvement. The Shantou bumper horse was again clueless. A decent effort by Cloth Cap, but he hadn't quite got the legs to see it out. Just returning to Iron Bridge he is yet another to have come away from Carlisle and disappoint.

Plenty going on elsewhere. I wasn't overwhelmed by Jonbon last time, but even though he has effectively only seen off one rival, I thought he was more convincing today. His jumping was accurate, and the further he went the better he went. I had talked up Banbridge, but it already looks as if he is being steered in a different direction. Shishkin seems to have gone, particularly in the jumping department. I would be surprised if Edwardstone is good enough to win a Champion Chase, if anything today was his Champion Chase. At Aintree Noble **** showed a real change of gear to take the feature. He looks to be improving, and given that we already know he stays the 16/1 looks too big for the Gold Cup. I would much rather have him than L'Homme Presse. If I owned Ahoy Senor he would be going elsewhere. Russell and Fox have had long enough to sort him out, and he looks to be getting worse.

Over in Ireland it was very hard to fault Facile Vega. At one stage he appeared to lose a bit of concentration, but it was very minor. You would think he would be versatile enough to take a lead should they wish. Joyeux Machin was a second bounce back winner for Paul Nolan. He had looked as if he was going the wrong way. Perhaps the Ballymore on decent ground might a better idea than the Supreme? I Am Maximus threw away the opener jumping to the left, and in closing bumper the three expensive pointers are either not very good, or the three jocks have given them idiot rides in a very slowly run race.
Report differentdrum December 3, 2022 6:26 PM GMT
Three runners at Huntingdon with three different jocks.

Sermando is on a losing run, but although he went up a couple of pounds for placing he remains 10lbs below his last winning mark (a win over course and distance), and should have every chance in a poor race. Instead of going up in trip Hungry Hill faces an even sharper test. The horse is 50/1, but I suspect you could add a nought. When they all finally go up in trip perhaps the stable could have a novice handicap of their own? Will Anyharminasking be the only horse to defeat Constitution Hill? If he hadn't have run at Ascot he would probably be favourite tomorrow. As it is the run was so bad who knows what we can expect?
Report differentdrum December 4, 2022 5:34 PM GMT
Sermando given every chance, but just beaten by a better one on the day. Hungry Hill all over the shop again, including when crowded. Under the circumstances he did well to finish sixth. Yet another awful ride from O'Neill on Anyharminasking. Too many bungles, and then topped it off by being unable to keep the horse straight. Should have gone very close. Jock being exposed on an almost daily basis.

The stable bought 4 of the 16 lots at the Tingle Creek Sale. The haul included a couple by emerging sire, Affinisea, most notably sales topper Brook Bay for 380,000. Do owners look at results and stable jocks? You wouldn't think so.

Weather seemed to turn things upside down at Fairyhouse with quickish ground turning to soft. Lossiemouth took the juvenile in nice style, but 3/1 for the Triunph? Slevin gave Comfort Zone a shocker. The Royal Bond was a lovely result for bookmakers. Marine Nationale was a big drifter while the well punted Champ Kiely fell in a hole and the other well backed one, Path D'oroux ran an absolute shocker. Cromwell has very quickly gone from in form to very much out of form. I am surprised Banbridge even ran in the novice chase. He wants a much quicker surface. Given they will probably duck Jonbon he has drifted to a backable price for the Turners. Time very much appears to have caught up with Honeysuckle. I wasn't sure she was ever travelling that well. Do they call it a day, or go back up in trip? Loved all the excuses for Mullins in the last. Didn't he simply go far too slowly on a staying horse....again?
Report differentdrum December 5, 2022 6:00 PM GMT
Three at Huntingdon tomorrow.

Sacre Couer isn't the safest proposition as she can be keen, and isn't the greatest jumper, but off her lowest mark she has an each-way chance under Jamie Brace. Inch House is another winning pointer. This one was a 125,000 purchase from the family of Young Snugfit, Cashew King, and Peanuts Pet. Ridden prominently he was able to hold Are U Wise To That. At least they haven't started him over the minimum, but it does look the strongest of the novice races, and chances are he is probably running for a place at best. Mr Biggs runs in the second division of the shorter novice. He is by Telescope and my first inclination with any young horse by that sire is to put a line through it. It's a method that hasn't let me down much so far. This one showed very little on debut, and I wouldn't expect a deal more tomorrow.
Report formoftheace December 5, 2022 6:52 PM GMT
You couldn’t possibly consider punting the yard….full of lay and place lay….
Report sageform December 5, 2022 7:06 PM GMT
They have been poor recently but still showing a level stakes profit for the NH season. I would not back most of them at the moment but come March any horse trained J O'Neill and owned by a certain JP McManus will get close scrutiny from me.
Report differentdrum December 5, 2022 8:18 PM GMT
I started this thread over a year ago. I haven't noticed a single entry, but he has recently crept into the Ballymore market at 33/1. It does beg the question as to what Jonjo has been doing with the horse.

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31735987/johnnywho---irish-point-winner?post_id=561668525#561668525
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