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Valentine Getaway outpaced before picking up pieces late on despite jumping left. Difficult to know what she achieved as the second favourite backed out having chased the impressive winner. Ilestdancingspirit looked paceless again, but that didn't deter O'Neill riding for the imaginary turn of foot. He is fast becoming a master of that 'skill'. Head carriage didn't look great as well.
Just Rocco Royale in a weak novice at Ludlow tomorrow. Yet another who would surely benefit from a longer trip. |
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Interesting ride is what I'd call it on Rocco Royale
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While the favourite was given a no nonsense ride, Rocco Royale was ridden more like a 25/1 shot than a second favourite. Just a nonsense of a ride. So many of the stable's runners are run over the wrong trip, and held up too far off the pace. Owners must have more money than sense to keep putting up with it.
Two at Huntingdon tomorrow. Trapista isn't a good thing, but she can win if O'Neill finally gets the message, and sends her forward. Inchester D'Amsyl showed a little promise on debut, and will he even be trying to bustle up the favourite? Didn't see every race, but there were several other questionable rides today in addition to O'Neill - Midgley, Donoghue and Bellamy all worthy of a mention. |
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Very poor, forgot Blue Shark and Bertie's Bandana.
Although it is his first go right handed, no obvious reason why Blue Shark shouldn't go in again. Bertie's Bandana has no chance on recent evidence. |
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I could not believe what i was watching in the replay when Jonjo came from way back to be third without doing anything to encourage the horse until the run in. I had a small interest in the 4yo, Greatness Awaits who did OK for a first attempt at hurdles and was eased after 2 out when Jonjo was still 5 lengths behind him! Both are worth far more than the bare form.
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There is an explanation for anyone who wants to read it, but it is just a lot of words describing a dreadful ride. Amazingly, he thinks that two miles is the right trip for the horse.
This only a couple of days after he should have been banned for the ride on Petit Tonnerre. The jock is in a very lucky position, and appears to be playing with the game. A bit sad for someone of his age. Talking of Petit Tonnerre despite spending the season running over middle distances, he has only been entered in the County Hurdle. So have they deliberately run it over the wrong trip four times this season? |
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Deja vu is a phrase you could easily get tired of using when describing O'Neill's rides. If it a first a tactic doesn't succeed carry on doing exactly the same. Such tactics have blighted Trapista's attempts to win. Hold her up, she gets outpaced, and then she plugs on with any chance of winning long gone. Today she was in trouble from the moment she lost her position when he got the stride pattern totally wrong. Inchester D'Amsyl stayed on late, but in truth was in a different county to the winner, and probably didn't progress much from his debut. Blue Shark racked up the five-timer despite the ride. Jock admitted afterwards this was as sharp a test as he wanted so it begs the question why hold the horse up in tenth as opposed to racing in the first three as he had done previously? Jumping a big factor in this sequence. One mistake, and he would probably have lost. Bertie's Bandana made the running in first time cheek pieces, but beat a hasty retreat once headed.
Four at Warwick tomorrow. On The Bandwagon reverts to hurdles in first time cheekpieces. He remains a maiden, and has been very disappointing. Hard to see anything changing tomorrow. Cedar Row looks outclassed in the novice hurdle. Despite four Cheltenham entries, Iron Bridge continues over the intermediate trip. His last two efforts have been disappointing so he needs to be winning this in style to justify those entries. Only By Night was a 110,000 purchase having won an Irish Point at the third time of asking. She finished very strongly to win going away, but the form is relatively untested. The sire has done well with very few runners, and this one comes from a decent family including Somersby, Horner Woods, and Mr Baxter Basics. This looks the tougher of the two divisions, and the current 7/2 looks plenty short enough. |
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On The Bandwagon raced prominently, but folded pretty tamely once headed. Several riders seemed to take the wrong course, but no action was taken. Even reading the Stewards Report, I don't understand why. Despite some errant jumping, Cedar Row ran on late without ever looking likely to trouble the places. Not sure some of those ahead handled course/ground, and he might have been a touch flattered. Iron Bridge looked all over the shop early on, but did find his way into the race, before lacking a gear in the closing stages. This was disappointing again. His jumping is generally too slow, and I suspect a big field might well frighten him. Hard to see him at the Festival. The National Hunt Chase might provide a small field, but he is totally unproven over that trip. Only By Night ran a respectable from a wide trip, but doesn't shout bumper winner on that run. She should pick a staying novice hurdle or two. Bumpers were notable for a couple of decent runs by Telescope's progeny. That hasn't happened very often, and maybe I can't so easily put a line through them. The winner of the first division looked by far the best prospect on show.
Four runners tomorrow. Imperial Bede takes a rise in class, but everything in the race has something to prove. The form of his win has been let down since, and only seven runners makes him hard to recommend each way. Lock's Corner after a string of improved efforts was very lack lustre last time, never threatening to take a hand. How much was that the horse, how much the jock? Down in trip, if you could ignore that last run, he clearly has a chance. The bumper is for me the most interesting race with three promising ex-pointers by Affinisea. Brook Bay was bought for 380,000 on the back of a comfortable success in an Irish Point. He went off favourite, and it was a decent time. d. The form of the win is completely untested. Scholfield takes ride. His family goes back to Desert Orchid. Although Classic Anthem finished alone in his point he would have beaten No Time To Wait who was subsequently a very impressive bumper winner. Cawthorne Banker runs in the Chepstow bumper. He has run with credit, but now looks a touch exposed. |
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Worrying signs for Cawthorne Banker. Four runs in he didn't seem to fancy it. That was a woeful performance.
Imperial Bede probably not good enough, but didn't appear to get that much help from O'Neill in the straight. How much did he want to finish third? Hard to find words to describe Brook Bay. Not as if he went too quick. The cheeky chappie must be wetting himself with laughter. A couple of days ago he landed yet another Irish Point winner 290,000. How stupid are these people? He seems to be just wasting people's money over and over again. The other two ex-pointers ran with promise, particularly the second, but neither had the pace to be winning a bumper on a quicker surface. This day has thrown up Cheltenham winners in the past, but I doubt too many were on show today. I don't believe JP's bumper winner is in the same league as Ballyburn. Just the two runners tomorrow at Fontwell. Letmetellusomethin ran well enough on hurdling debut, and I am a little surprised he is such a big price in an ordinary race. A repeat of his course and distance second should give Spitalfield every chance in the concluding bumper. |
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Letmetellusomethin pulled on account of the ground. Strange betting pattern, as big as 100/1, as short as 20/1. Spitalfield hasn't gone on from stable debut, and looked very average. Noticeable how many Lavelle bumper horses travel nicely on the bridle (and probably go short in running) only to seemingly find nothing where it matters most.
Cracking novice race in Ireland today, I suspect much better than anything on show yesterday. If I had Corbett's Cross I would be disappointed he wasn't in the Ballymore. He has certainly got more pace than I thought he had. Found A Fifty, one for the future as well. Couldn't say the same about Blackmore. Looked very weak in a finish again today. I am beginning to wonder how long she will carry on. |
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Two runners tomorrow on a day when it is strictly bottom of the table stuff. Hopefully, it isn't going to be this bad all the way to Cheltenham.
File Illico has been absolutely dreadful this season, but did win this race on his only previous run at Leicester, and perhaps the quicker ground might help. It's such a poor race just jumping round would give him a chance. Also Known As is very quickly sent chasing, and in first time blinkers. After a modicum of promise at Uttoxeter he took another step backwards last time. The better ground should help, and it is another very weak race. |
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All of todays racing is very weak. Have you worked out which of Jonjo's entries will run in a Cheltenham handicap yet? I expect there is a winner there somewhere.
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Just a quick catch up. I will go through the Cheltenham entries later.
Not sure File Illico improved that much. Made the running, but couldn't get the very easy winner off the bridle. O'Neill looked like a poor amateur on Also Known As, weight back in the saddle and bouncing up and down. Awful performance from horse and jock. Yesterday, Wideeyedandlegless returned after a long absence. Like so many held up for a change of pace and ended up staying on when the race was over. Credit to Cobden for taking advantage of the muppets in behind. Neither of those two odds on shots was impressive, and a lesser rider might have got them beat. Just Sacre Coeur today. Winner at Haydock, woeful on quicker ground and more testing track last time. Seemingly unfancied. |
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I make it 20 Cheltenham entries, split between 12 horses.
Coeur Serein (3 entries) Monbeg Genius (2) Iron Bridge (4) Regal Blue (2) Saint Davy (2) Easysland Prince Escalus An Tailliur Soaring Glory Petite Tonnerre Collectors Item Beachcomber Coeur Serein, Monbeg Genius, and Iron Bridge all hold similar entries, and if the intention is to run you would imagine they would probably be separated. All three would definitely get in the Kim Muir, but need some to come out of the Ultima. Monbeg Genius has dominated small fields from the front, and if he wants to repeat those tactics then the Kim Muir would appear the best option. Iron Bridge has been very disappointing and his jumping in a big field might be very suspect. I would have suggested the Brown Advisory, or National Hunt Chase in the hope of facing a much smaller field, but he has yet to show that he really stays even three miles. Coeur Serein has got some big field course form, and might be worth a shot at a very weak National Hunt Chase. Regal Blue and Saint Davy are both promising, but short on experience. I would have thought that the Albert Bartlett would be a better fit for both of them. Collectors Item is a bit more exposed, but took a large step forward last time, and is another for the same race. His previous course run was dreadful. Presumably, they are just hoping with Easysland? For me it's retirement or move him. Prince Escalus wants a small field and quick ground. The Grand Annual is a terrible fit. An Tailliur has been very consistent, and progressive over the last couple of years. I had presumed he had been held back for the Pertemps, but the trainer states he has had some issues. If all is well he must have a decent each-way shout. Soaring Glory and Petite Tonnerre will probably get in the County. Soaring Glory is out of form, and has never really looked like a Cheltenham horse. I thought Petite Tonnerre might be a Coral Cup/Martin Pipe project, but his last two starts have been very disappointing. Beachcomber surprised me by taking a huge leap forward last time, but he will likely need an even bigger one to figure in the Festival Bumper. So there you are Sage, perhaps you can tell me the winner? I would have An Tailliur as the best each way chance. |
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Springwell Bay is another useful novice, possibly their best. Would they think about parachuting him into the Albert Bartlett?
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I have an idea that they are targeting the Ultima and the Kim Muir. The same 3 horses are in both but are well below the safety limit for the Ultima. They would get into the Kim Muir. Iron Bridge interests me most but although he is in two novice chases, the handicap looks more realistic.
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Hugely annoying win for Unspeakable today. Mentioned him a couple of times on the thread when he finished tailed off. Market clue last time, nothing today.
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Sacre Coeur slightly better, but I think she really needs a strong pace, and horses to be stopping in front of her.
Two runners on a very moderate card at Newbury. Piper Tom looks out of his depth in the novice hurdle, but Yes Indeed is currently being supported as if a drop in trip, and wind op might work the oracle. The stable could certainly do with a winner. |
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Two more disasters to add to a list that is ever increasing. Just waiting for some clown to suggest it is a stable in form going into Cheltenham. The reality is that it hasn't been in form at any stage of the season. Piper Tom looks to have the size to jump a fence, but at the moment he is very much a Noel Fehily dud. The market couldn't give away Yes Indeed, and it proved to be spot on. He jumped badly (yet another one, there is a trend here, and the connection is O'Neill) and was never at the races.
More moderate stuff tomorrow. If you have a mediocre horse, and the trainer hasn't got it out in these two weeks before Cheltenham, then he isn't doing his job. Still it should mean everyone has some ammo to play with. Four runners at Newbury. Cloth Cap runs in the old stagers race. He has his ground and track. If it wasn't for having O'Neill on board I would give him a decent shout. He has even managed to coax a refusal out of the old boy. I am not sure what was going on with Lock's Corner when he was ridden too far back, and just failed to qualify for the Pertemps Final. Back in trip, if he resumes his previous progress he should have an each-way chance. Head Law made a promising reappearnce, travelling strongly on the bridle, but failed to back that up with a woeful performance at Huntingdon. Who knows what to expect? Mardy Mono is out of a full sister to More Of That. She looked very one-paced in her Point, and this looks a tough ask on debut. |
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Unless you know something then both Lock's Corner and Head Law have drifted to ridiculous prices.
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Another day with far more negatives than positives. It's becoming more desperate by the day. Just the 1 winner from the last 27 runners.
Cloth Cap won't get any easier opportunities than today's race. Surely retirement isn't far away? It's not that unfair to say that Lock's Corner looked beat after 10 yards. He raced with all the zest of a horse who hadn't won for three years rather than three starts ago. The wheels seem to have come off big time, and the market was spot on. I missed Head Law's race, and because he was fatally injured I can't now see a replay. I have never liked the idea of air brushing reality. I can't believe any sane person would watch a replay just to see a fatality. Anyway commiserations to all those involved in the horse. The bumper was a procession. Given that Mardy Mono was able to stay on past wilting rivals, I suspect those in behind the runaway winner were a pretty average bunch. Big day numerically tomorrow with six runners, at Ffos Las and Huntingdon. Hungry Hill carries topweight in a modest novices handicap. Last time he raced too freely, stuck out wide, on ground that was likely too soft. All the hallmarks of not exactly trying too hard. He is worth a market watch, but I am not sure what he has done to be conceding 19lbs to Maid Of The Night. Walk In My Shoes jumped nicely on chase debut for Brace, but ultimately wasn't good enough in a lower grade. Copper Cove makes his handicap debut after fading away tamely at Exeter. Perhaps he needed that run? Bob Bob Ricard makes a belated seasonal debut in the bumper, but looks up against a couple of potentially decent rivals. Orrisdale goes in the handicap chase at Huntingon. He has been in dreadful form, and the better ground needs to spark a massive revival. Not sure what has been the problem with Mersey Street as he makes a belated rules debut after a years absence. He was a relatively cheap purchase having finished second in what looks a modest Irish Point. This looks a weaker bumper than the one at Ffos Las. Hard to pick out much of note elsewhere today. Dargiannini looks ahead of the handicapper, and Seeyouinmydreams looked impressive in the bumper, but will surely find it difficult to execute similar tactics at Aintree. She was another for that 'terrible sire' Telescope who seems to have suddenly found a few winners. Anyone who backed Le Milos today won't be best pleased, but I am surprised some bookmakers pushed him for the Grand National. The winner is a useful tool at Kelso, and it looks as if Skelton has kicked too soon on a horse who ridden in that manner wasn't fit enough to get the job done. |
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He wins a decent race at a big meeting and they all squawk ……dreadful outfit
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That's the nature of the beast. All you get is wall to wall cheerleading. This trainer is in form, that trainer is in form, same with jocks, you might think they are all in form. Kerry Lee, a current example. She was struggling for ages, nobody mentions it, bangs in a few winners and suddenly she is brilliant. They continually treat their audience as complete fools.
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But spotting trainers and more importantly owners in or out of form is one of them main guides to winners. Remember Louise Duffy who owned Mr Frisk? Her horses only won when she paid her annual visit to UK. She was not the only one who made sure her horses were tuned up for a specific period of time. It is not usually an accident when an owner or trainer has a sudden change in form.
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Hungry Hill didn't travel early, but eventually arrived on the bridle looking as if the race was won only to be eventually run down close home. Not sure whether he was just green, or hanging fire was a sign of a more serious issue. You have to think had the jock held on a little longer he would have won. That's happened to a few recently. Copper Cove seemed to travel sweetly enough upsides the winner, but again he has finished very tamely. Bob Bob Ricard probably stepped up on his debut, but was no match for the comfortable winner. He took advantage of another terrible Lavelle bumper runner. Once Paisley Park is retired the cupboard looks empty. The two year association with Bellamy hasn't produced one promising young horse, just a string of disappointments. Orrisdale was again found wanting, dropping away quickly once headed. Mersey Street travelled well enough, but could only muster one pace when it mattered. Much better effort from Sheehan here than in the Luck On Sunday studio.
Fortunately, I am not having quite as many losers as Jonjo, but just the same the odd winner before the Festival would be nice. Hopefully, the forecast cold snap doesn't disrupt racing too much this week. Three runners tomorrow. Arrivederci has been woeful for two years. First time cheek pieces look the only hope. Letmetellusomethin has been pulled out twice recently. Assuming he is allowed to take his chance this looks tougher than the races he has missed. After several disappointments Fame And Concrete has found another weak handicap. He clearly lacks a gear, and doesn't jump very well. |
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Fast disappearing over the cliff - I think that is now 1 out of 36 including a large number of dreadful performances.
Today it was par for the course with three duffers. Brogan has done well to motivate Arrivederci enough to finish fourth. He didn't travel with any zest. His jumping is safe, but laboured. Letmetellusomethin seemingly attracted plenty of each way support, but it was soon obvious he wasn't going to reward backers. An absolutely terrible round of jumping which ultimately led to the inevitable tame finish. Despite an uncontested lead, Fame And Concrete faded away to nothing once challenged. It looked like he was running through concrete. Just the one runner at Sandown tomorrow. Gwennie May Boy finally steps up in trip on a galloping track. This is far more competitive than the races he has been running in, and he needs to jump better to have any chance. O'Neill rides for the first time. |
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Gwennie May Boy jumped a little bit better, and plugged on to finish a distant third. It looked to me as if the ground was a negative, and he is worth considering over a similar trip on better ground.
Nothing tomorrow, but did notice a little market support for An Tailliur in the Pertemps. Also noticed O'Neill was up for ride of the month on Inch House. Who picks these? The horse has a trait of hanging left yet he still used his whip in the right hand. If they were choosing worst rides of the month he would be in the running every time. |
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Hopefully, three at Wincanton tomorrow, and perhaps a chance of a winner?
Walk Of No Shame can be a bit buzzy, but is quite useful. If she handles the quicker surface she must have a decent chance of defying the penalty. Sermando steps up a grade, and hard to see why the step up in trip should make a significant difference. Dr Hegarty steps up in trip on handicap debut in a very poor race. He has shown next to nothing in three starts at the minimum, and is a full brother to Timberman who has been doing his winning at two miles. Best watched. |
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It's getting difficult to find any new words to describe the performances. It's now up to 1/40. There can't be many yards in the country in worse shape than that, let alone one that spends hundreds of thousands on the horses. Owners only got themselves to blame.
Walk Of No Shame had a pretty easy task, but alarm bells were ringing as early as the first hurdle. She never travelled or jumped. Bookmakers in clover. The other two finished last, and pulled up after a few hurdles. Four at Exeter tomorrow, and you couldn't back any with confidence. You would think they would all drift. Inchester D'Amsyl showed a little promise on debut, but could only finish a distant second returning after a two-month absence. Judicial Law hasn't run since September, and his best form on soft ground. Red Dirt Road beat Corbett's Cross and Thomas Mor in his Point, but hasn't shown anything like that form under rules. That Point was on soft ground, and it seems strange he has since been kept to the minimum trip. In many respects Blue Shark has been the stable star, but even before you consider the stable/jockey form, he is up 5lbs, and significantly up in trip on a stiff track. He hasn't looked to be crying out for the extra distance. |
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Iron Bridge cut across the board for the Kim Muir. Presumably, someone has tipped it up, sometime who appears to be oblivious to stable form, and the form of the horse itself for that matter.
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Iron Bridge does not seem to be declared for any Cheltenham entries. Monbeg Genius and one other I can't spell in the Kim Muir.
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Hurrah, a winner at last.
Given the way the others ran, I think Red Dirt Road has probably won by default. He made all, was never seriously challenged, and pulled clear from two out, looking better the further he went as you might expect for a horse running over the wrong trip. Inchester D'Amsyl tried to sit in front, but dropped away tamely once the pace increased, and ended up taking a heavy fall. Another dismal performance that promised nothing. Judicial Law jumped poorly out out the back before getting outpaced. He plugged on, but was in a different county to the winner. The writing was on the wall for Blue Shark almost from the start. I commented last time how O'Neill dropped him out, but the horse got him out of trouble. He did the same again today, and this time the horse didn't get him out of trouble. The horse probably needs a break, and preferably Brace back on board. Hopefully, three at Sandown tomorrow. Crebilly was beaten by a decent horse last time, but not sure he wants the extra distance in this type of ground. I hope Churchills Boy can be a rare big winner for Nick Gifford. A slog in the mud should suit. Hard to see an out of form Soaring Glory playing much of a part off top weight in the Imperial Cup, albeit a weak looking renewal. Morning Spirit appears to have lost the plot since winning at Carlisle. Yes, very strange gamble on Iron Bridge. If somebody did put it up not the wisest selection. |
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Two relatively better efforts today, although neither remaining runner looked like winning. Crebilly travelled well enough, but didn't get home. Morning Spirit doesn't look one to trust. Today he travelled with some zest, and kept battling up the straight. Which version you get next time is anyone's guess.
Four tomorrow at Warwick. Half The Freedom is another who seems to need everything to go just right. Not sure he wants testing ground. La Domaniale has been off since last August and put in at a short price the ground must again be a big concern. Cedar Row made nice late gains last time without ever looking like being seriously involved. A little more progress would give him every chance, but he looks another running on the wrong ground. Rockstown Native was bought for 82,000 having won an Irish Point in January. The family is no great shakes, and he didn't look the biggest, but he did jump very nicely. This might well prove too sharp a test. He is a big price, but I did think Ultra Beat did shape nicely in his Point, and is worth a watch for the future. Not much to get enthused about today. I think I enjoy tired horses slogging up that Sandown hill in testing conditions less each time I watch. |
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Another day when a winner was surrounded by something a lot more in keeping with the current run.
As with the other winner, I think Cedar Row won almost by default, and it certainly had zero to do with the ride. He was much the strongest stayer, and O'Neill only had to stay on board. Half The Freedom had to be pushed along throughout, and just confirmed that he is never going to be an animal to trust. La Domaniale was weak in the market, and never looked likely to be seriously involved. Rockstown Native was outpaced in a steadily run bumper. Ultra Beat doesn't look a bumper horse, but shaped nicely. It is hard to believe that punters keep standing for Bailey and Bass. They have had a dreadful season, and by not making the running they have taken away Bass's best attribute. One runner at Stratford tomorrow, quite appropriately, Came From Nothing, a half brother to Marie's Rock who I am very much hoping will bolt up on Tuesday. I very much doubt this one will do likewise. He returns four months after getting outpaced on debut. Hard to believe that whizzing around Stratford will suit. Just the one stable entry at Cheltenham on Tuesday, Monbeg Genius in the Ultima. This is a far cry from bossing small fields, and looks more about giving the jock a ride, rather than doing best for the horse. He would surely have had more chance of dominating the Kim Muir? |
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Yes, I was expecting Monbeg Genius to go for the Kim Muir. I suppose they declared for the Ultima in case he got in-which looked unlikely. Were they aiming to be balloted out and get the entry money back?
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Given all the money that is being wasted on the horses, I would be surprised if they are too worried about saving a few bob on entry fees.
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Monbeg Genius does seem to be well backed though.
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Dire effort from Came From Nothing. Sweated up, and almost the first beaten, quickly tailing off.
Just Monbeg Genius tomorrow. I have no idea what has inspired the gamble. He has dominated small fields beating just 14 rivals in three runs. He will need something akin to a miracle to be able to dominate this field so can he do anything else? I am pleased to be going in losing half as much as last year, but not so pleased not having backed a winner for two weeks. Hopefully, Marie's Rock can win again. I think she is much the best, but the potential lack of pace is a concern. Test of stamina, and she doesn't get beat. |
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I had to have a £1 on Monbeg after such a gamble. It is the kind of race where Jonjo has done well in the past. My real fancy is Oscar Elite who came right back to form recently for Cobden who keeps the ride and he is only up 3lb for that win and is only 1lb higher than when finishing third last year. Take a look at his third to Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame at Aintree.
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Good luck.
Oscar Elite has run well at the Festival, but in general has been very disappointing. Last time he won a shocking renewal of the Reynoldstown beating a non stayer. He is 5lb better off with Corach Rambler for three lengths, but I think the winner was value for more than the official verdict. |