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Jonjo O'Neill's Team

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By:
differentdrum
When: 03 Nov 22 16:36
For some reason I thought Dollar Bae was stepping up in trip today. She wasn't, but she clearly needs to. It was another wasted run today trying to produce a gear she doesn't possess.

Itso Fury got the job done, but couldn't have had a better set up with the the two dangers getting racing much too early. I suspect it is going be a hard job to complete the hat trick.
By:
differentdrum
When: 03 Nov 22 17:34
Managed to get 9/2 Blenkinsop although 11/2 was available. Horse had an absolute ton in hand, but Stevens still managed to come close to totally messing up.

Another easy bumper winner for Henderson at Newbury. Earlier another couple of Lavelle runners capitulated to nothing in the straight.
By:
differentdrum
When: 03 Nov 22 19:09
Two runners for Fitri Hay at Exeter tomorrow.

I couldn't find any footage of Also Known As, but you would imagine it would be a surprise if he turned over a Persian War runner up (even if it was a poor renewal) and a promising bumper/hurdle winner. He is related to plenty of winners, but nothing outstanding in the recent history.

Betty's Banjo won nicely at Uttoxter, but couldn't cope with the drop in trip at the same track. She looks pretty straightforward, and going back up in trip is a positive, but for win purposes I just wonder if she has a few pounds too many against several possible lurkers.

Elsewhere bit surprised that American Mike is starting over an extended trip. Surely they don't see him as an Albert Bartlett horse? It would seem to be a bit early to be running scared of Facile Vega. The Mare's Grade 3 looks very competitive. I like Carrigmoorna Queen, but I doubt she is tomorrow's horse. I do think Fil Dor has a good chance of turning over Pied Piper, but much will depend on how Russell juggles the pace. Elliott will no doubt be hoping that Better Days Ahead is more impressive than Demandrivingdouvan who didn't look quite the full shilling up the straight at Thurles today.
By:
differentdrum
When: 03 Nov 22 19:23
Looking forward to the Breeders Cup over the next two days. Managed to find one in every race' including four Europeans. Starting down thanks to Jack Christopher's late scratch. Usually manage to find something to get me out of trouble. Last year it was Aloha West. Fingers crossed.
By:
differentdrum
When: 04 Nov 22 19:09
No surprise that Also Known As wasn't good enough, but that was dismal from Betty's Banjo. She stopped as if shot. Totally unfit, or problem? Does O'Neill ever give an indication of why they ran badly?

The loose horse was a bit of menace in the novice hurdle, but Outlaw Peter made very short work of the opposition, and looks to be on the improve. Not so sure the same applies to American Mike, in fact I would be asking what's gone wrong? Last year Elliott/Codd were happy to talk him up as the second coming. Now all of a sudden he looks slow and ponderous. He probably only won today because the second horse didn't get home. I would rip up any Ballymore tickets. I certainly wouldn't give up on Carrigmoorna Queen ending up better than today's opposition. She was simply outpaced over an inadequate trip. Better Days Ahead ended up another bumper dud for Elliott.

Will be having a glance at 200,000 purchase Fortunate Soldier in the opener at Aintree tomorrow, but other than that my main focus will be on the Breeders Cup.
By:
differentdrum
When: 05 Nov 22 16:06
Two more O'Neill duffers today in Flight Deck and Monbeg Genius. Both looked very slow and ponderous at their obstacles. Flight Deck might prefer a stiffer track, but there was very little in that performance that suggested he would continue his sequence of winning every other start. Noticeable how plenty of O'Neill's rides spend too much time in the air. It can't just be coincidence, and clearly doesn't help, particularly if you are trying to make ground from off the pace.

Fortunate Sodier was absoltely dreadful at Aintree. Another one who ballooned the obstacles and looked paceless. Not the start you would want if you had sold a 200,000 horse to a big owner. He will probably step up to three miles, but on this evidence he still going to struggle. Even bigger disaster with Bowen having little impetus, and falling off Brewinupastorm. Lot of money invested in the Murphy yard, and he needs to do better.
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Nov 22 11:10
Copper Coin runs in the novice hurdle at Ffos Las. He looked slow in his bumpers so much so they actually made the running with him. Trip and ground should suit today, but I suspect he may well find a couple too good. I would sooner take the 4/1 Gladiatus than the 3/1 Copper Coin. Gladiatus ran with some promise before giving best at Chepstow. Surely Williams can't be treating everything as a win something three years down the line project? The favourite is short on the basis Honeyball will be expected to have him ready after the absence.

A couple of stayers running in the shorter novice hurdle. I wonder if the testing ground will enable them to get away with it against the ex-Flat horse? If that horse can jump I would have my doubts.

Will be looking out for Big Fish in the last at Sandown. I suspect he will want better ground, but the stable have run the odd decent one in a Sandown bumper. Presumably, he will be ridden to finish off.

Small loss, but enjoyed the Breeders Cup again. Just three winners and no places. Finding the each-ways was very hard. It was frustrating being on the likes of Order Of Australia at 28/1 and Broome at 18/1 then seeing the price tumble for no reward. In hindsight it was a poor decision to have opposed the Europeans on the first day. Next year I will probably wait until the draw and extra places before betting.
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Nov 22 18:02
Copper Cove apologies. Bit surprised O'Neill didn't go forward, But I think that is as good as he is at the moment. Likely he will need to rely on a decent handicap mark.

Terrible performance from Galdiatus who went backwards from Chepstow. Tudor is just schooling these around. If Williams wins a novice chances are that it's going to off a million. There's no way anyone, but a bookmaker could trust the outfit.

Rath Gaul Hill won the other novice very easily. He almost certainly beat nothing, but given he will appreciate stepping up in trip he looks to have a decent future. Drinkwater a stable to keep an eye on. This one was well punted.

Over in Ireland I liked the look of La Malmason. A half sister to Stage Star, she travelled very nicely on debut. Stable in very good form at present.

Garry Clermont has a second go at chasing at Carlisle. He had held every chance before making a horlicks of the second last on chasing debut over two miles. A strong traveller, but under achiever over hurdles, let's see if he can do any better tomorrow.
By:
onlooker
When: 06 Nov 22 19:38
'Out of nowhere' -

Jonjo Wins the last at Ffos Las - with Blue Shark - 'a million to one' chance (by his standards) ...

- and - blind-sides everyone - including this Thread.
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Nov 22 20:55
Not good as I have tried to concentrate on the less exposed horses. That said I am not sure what optimistic note I could have struck given it hadn't been within 22 lengths in seven previous starts. He would still have been a 20/1 shot turning in, but he has won so easily the jock has decided he didn't even need a whip. It would have been lovely to know that the trainer had been consistently running the horse over the wrong trip and wrong ground. That's probably never happened before.
By:
onlooker
When: 06 Nov 22 22:06
Indeed - differentdrum

I looked at the race - admittedly in no great detail, as it looked like a - 'nothing can win this race', race.

Did not even watch the race - and only on checking the Result, later - and Blue Shark's Form (to - like you - try and establish where that Win has 'come from') - saw this, form 3 outings ago .... riddden by the Son, of course - 50/1 opened 33/1

(jockey said, regarding running and riding, that his instructions were to ride handy and give gelding a good sight of his hurdles but not to use his whip as he is a fractious sort that needs cajoling;
he added that he was pleased by the way gelding handled the preliminaries and, once racing, settled well into the race and was able to sit mid-division, 6 or 7l off the leaders; however, when they picked up the pace halfway round the final bend he was unable to go with them and gelding came off the bridle making a mistake at the penultimate flight;
jockey maintained that gelding had no more to give down the home straight and therefore kept hold of his head to get him across the line and was only just able to maintain 4th position;  - (beaten 40 lengths)
he further added that, in his opinion, gelding felt weak and tired on today's good to soft ground but he considered that, once the gelding had strengthened up, he might be able to handle it better as well as benefitting from a longer trip) (op 33/1)
-----------

It handled the Soft ground OK, today.

10/1 out to odds between 20/1 and 25/1  when Opening Show came out at 16:12/16:13 - according to irishracing.con Betting Movements
By:
gpz6316
When: 06 Nov 22 22:43
its very difficult to assess any chance a jonjo horse has . he's a mystery wrapped up in a enigma as they say . generally they consume , when fancied by the public, a good amount of the book and disappoint regularly . I just ignore his runners , as i used to with mark johnstones until i figured him out . whenever you hear from jonjo its like hes out of it , cant remember what lies hes told so is as vague as possible and is as unhelpful as can be .
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Nov 22 10:05
He is rarely interviewed, for obvious reasons. The thing I have most difficulty with is the difference between how he was lauded by the public as a jockey, and all they get back now is the grin vacuum. All the secrecy does nothing to promote the sport. He makes Stoute look like an open book.   

There is similar horse entered at Hereford tomorrow, upped in trip with first time cheekpieces. I doubt that will be 20/1.
By:
shoodacoodadidnt
When: 07 Nov 22 10:33
major bookies love him I'm sure - I always got him wrong as a jockey too .... ah well... this is the game - that outsider cost me a fortune - big win on 2nd and forecast 2nd and 3rd - and that thing came from nowhere with no good explanation (thanks Onlooker - clearly they were asked to explain something suspicious previously - interesting).
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Nov 22 17:58
The previously referred to Berties Bandana a non runner.

Henry Gondoff fleetingly showed some talent as a novice hurdler, but things very quickly went pear-shaped. Only the stable will know if they tinkered with anything, but this looks a very difficult task for his return. Not much to say about On The Bandwagon other than if this one wins the explanation will be interesting.
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Nov 22 19:22
Sadly, it looks like Lingfield will need a miracle tomorrow. Plenty more rain on top of standing water sounds close to impossible.

It certainly has been a case of be careful what you wish for with the weather. Not enough rain followed by too mach rain. Unfortunately, it seems this might well become the normal with ridiculously mild temperatures and heavy rain.
By:
differentdrum
When: 08 Nov 22 11:35
On The Bandwagon 10/1-4/1. Perhaps it's one of those morining moves that fizzles out on track, or maybe some people think Jonjo has his script ready? Last 5 runs on good ground having not shown that much on a couple of tries on softer ground.
By:
differentdrum
When: 08 Nov 22 16:27
Henry Gondoff ended up finishing fifth almost by default. He was the first under pressure, his jumping was tardy, and he doesn't exactly look in love with the game. Not a lot to be enthusiastic about. The horse in the last race ran as well as his form figures suggested he would. Market move presumably down to guessers hoping lightning might strike twice in a weak race.

I backed a couple at Lingfield. Grey D'alco ran, and was ridden as if he wasn't fit enough to win. When you only train a handful of winners can you really afford to pass up winning opportunities? I would be surprised if he isn't better than the two who beat him. At least I pocketed a little each-way money. Lieutenant Rocco wasn't quite so successful. He has travelled well enough, but literally stopped as if shot. What benefit is there to running horses on very testing ground that are unfit? Hosie needs to look for another trainer who is better than himself. That shouldn't be too difficult.
By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Nov 22 10:29
Merveillo taken out so no runners today.

Not a bad card at Bangor despite the non runners.

I liked Le Milos last year, so much so I backed him for the Kim Muir. He was very disappointing at Doncaster. Recent chase wins at Exeter and Sandown. Is Bangor going to suit? You would think this should suit Grumpy Charley, but trainer and jock hardly in form.

The last is a decent race, but the market is all over Saint Palais.
By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Nov 22 16:23
Escaped by backing Le Milos and Grumpy Charley. Very different runs. Le Milos plenty of promise for better things, Grumpy Charley next to none. If he is going to find another race over fences you would think it is going to have to be a small field where most of them can't handle deep ground. He drifted very badly just before the off. Their other runner, Mayhem Mya was backed, but she still looks the handful that she was last year.

A pathetic performance from Saint Palais in the last. Never travelled or jumped. You would think the trainer (who some are bigging up) might/should have had an inkling that could happen. The eventual winner was aided by another Clarke runner not seeing his race out.
By:
differentdrum
When: 09 Nov 22 17:51
Highland Getaway runs in the opener at Market Rasen tomorrow. I am not that keen on Getaway's but this is from the very good Girseach line that has thrown up numerous high class winners, notably for Twiston-Davies. JP has bought into it with less success so given the stable connection he might have looked at this one. The favourite is going to be hard to beat, but given the pedigree you can see why the first quote of 14/1 with Bet 365 was taken.

A couple of ex-pointers have been punted in the longer novice, but I will be keeping an eye on the long absent Sinurita who clearly must have had problems since making her point debut two years ago. She was well beaten, but the impressive winner of that race has gone on to be very successful. Over at Taunton it will be interesting to see if Ooh Betty can step up on her reappearance when she travelled like a winner before stopping to nothing.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 10 Nov 22 13:03
The eventual winner was aided by another Clarke runner not seeing his race out.

Completely disagree. See my post on your thread after his race at Carlisle.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 10 Nov 22 13:16
The 3 Mile Novice hurdle at Cheltenham in December will tell them if they have a genuine Albert Bartlett contender.
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Nov 22 14:07
So you completely disagree that Dr Kananga weakened? I would have thought that was obvious.

Racing Post - 'Led, 4 lengths ahead after 3 out, soon ridden, headed 2 out, weakened approaching last'
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 10 Nov 22 14:35
This thread has turned into you rambling on and getting things completely wrong along with plenty of aftertiming. What exactly is the point of this thread, Drum?
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 10 Nov 22 14:47
differentdrum20 Oct 22 13:57Joined: 05 Oct 11 | Topic/replies: 15,076 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Very frustrating from a punting angle. Second and third very likely to be better than the winner, but the winner has been given a ground saving ride, and ridden to win today. It is very hard to make up ground on that sort of surface. Skelton conceded at least seven lengths, and then bungled the third last. Eventually the ride has told and he has dropped away. So often Skelton rides that race, and he either has to have pounds in hand and/or everything has to go perfectly. It isn't a punter friendly way to ride. The second was scruffy at many hurdles, and consequently gave himself too much to do.
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Whippin Piccadilly
Whippin Piccadilly20 Oct 22 14:08Joined: 02 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 7,581 | Blogger: Whippin Piccadilly's blog
Second and third very likely to be better than the winner
Confused Not sure how you've come to that conclusion. But we all see races differently. My take on the race is
the unbeaten winner looks the type that just does enough. Thought he won with plenty in hand. The 2nd is an out and out stayer and if he gets a step up in trip on an equally stiff track next time out, I would be very interesting in backing him. The third looks a bit one paced and possibly needed the race


Do you still think the 2nd & 3rd will turn out better than the winner? Yes or No?
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Nov 22 14:51
Highland Getaway was clearly learning on the job today. If you backed him each-way you might be a bit miffed that he didn't learn quickly enough, and was beaten by a couple of rags. He should be better next time, but the form probably amounts to very little as it was a one-horse race. In the second race Sinurita was a late gamble 40/1-9/1, but having taken a scenic trip, quickly stopped to nothing. Presumably, unfit by about a half a mile. Not good when you are returning from a two year lay off. Over at Taunton Ooh Betty was also supported 10/1-11/2, but backers never had a prayer of collecting. She was always out of her ground under a shocking ride from Ben Jones. 

The Ballymore Novices looks the most interesting race on an average Cheltenham card tomorrow. It will be disappointing if Mullins can mop this up with one of his third division. At the moment I think Collectors Dream at 9/1 (three places) with Bet 365 looks the value. I am hoping he is better than the bare form of his hurdling debut when he was ridden for a change of pace over the minimum trip. I expect him to travel well, and it will be question of whether he is good enough in the straight. Hermes Allen won an ordinary race at Stratford looking a thorough stayer in the process. I liked him, but he might be better over further. Earlier on the card I would have thought that The Glancing Queen should have every chance in the handicap chase. Her first time record is very good, but she is relatively weak in the market, and I hardly ever get the King stable right.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 10 Nov 22 14:54
Collectors Dream a bet then? Yes or No?
By:
differentdrum
When: 10 Nov 22 15:06
WP

I don't really want to clutter things, but you have got something wrong, and now you are just resorting to having a pointless pop at the thread. It's typical of yourself and the forum in general. If you don't like the thread that's fine, I couldn't give a monkeys either way.

What is a fact is that there have been well over 5,000 views. I think that makes it relatively popular. Perhaps that's your problem? Perhaps some people actually enjoy what you refer to as rambling?
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 10 Nov 22 15:43
What did I get wrong about the Carlisle race? The 2nd at Bangor yesterday didn't see the race out because it was trying to win the race and was beaten by a much better horse. Can't you just admit that you got that Carlise race wrong and your assessment of the horse was wide of the mark? Of course you can't. You're Differentdrum. lol  But its no bother because you always recover things with an aftertimed bet! Grin

How about sticking some bets up with a P/L and a review the following day? And yes, you can blame jockeys and trainers for any losing bets. Devil
By:
differentdrum
When: 11 Nov 22 18:19
Another quiet day for the stable tomorrow with just Yes Indeed at Wetherby. A bit of Grade 1 form in France, but nothing in three starts since the switch. No reported tweeks and guesswork as to whether this is a workable mark. No market support as yet, and you would think that a clean round is the priority. 

As for today both The Glancing Queen and Collectors Item were beaten almost from the start. The Glancing Queen lined up in a reasonable position, but her jumping quickly took her backwards, and the fences looked a real effort throughout. Presumably, they will go up in trip, but you couldn't be confident after what was probably her worst ever performance. Collectors Item ran as if he had been dropped in trip, outpaced and slow at the flights throughout. The only surprise was that he actually ended up running past a couple. The market told the story 9/1-4/1-9/1. Hard to believe that dire effort was just a ground issue, but I would assume it's back to the drawing board and try and win another novice over this trip under a penalty. 

Hermes Allen won very nicely, and the further he went the better he looked. I would have him nailed on as an Albert Bartlett type, but most of the top novices seem to avoid that race. Hopefully, they might consider the Bobs Worth route. It's going to be harder to gallop better horses into the ground over the intermediate trip. I couldn't understand why some analysts were talking about bringing him back in trip. If he really has so much speed why make the running? 

Mullins couldn't win that race, but I suspect he might be up to winning the last tomorrow. Good to see him giving Bryony Frost the ride. It isn't going to win, but I will keeping an eye on Love At Sea. The sire has made a very good start with just a handful of runners, but this one has a huge penalty to carry.

Over at Naas another couple of potentially useful mares, Ashroe Diamond and Halka Du Tabert, should top and tail the card.
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Nov 22 18:10
Still no real positives for Yes Indeed. His fencing doesn't seem to have improved much, and he is still spending too much time in the air. Even with a weight drop you couldn't fancy him off the back of that run. The jock picked up a winner for JP on Iroko who looked a particularly strong stayer at the trip.

Just the one for the stable again tomorrow, Springwell Bay in the Supreme Trial. This looks a weak race for the Grade, and it would be a surprise if any of them make much impact in March. None of them go in with form that has had much of a boost. I would favour Springwell Bay over Iberico Lord on the basis of his hurdling experience, but even that is going to be a limited advantage as it is very unlikely that he will be bounced out and make all.

Other than the Greatwood it looks a pretty shallow card.

Banbridge was my highlight at Cheltenham today. Given his accurate jumping, course form, and particularly the way he has now run through the line twice, I think the 16/1 is perfectly fair for the equivalent race in March. The question marks for me would be class and Slevin. Hopefully, O'Brien will at least steer him to the target, something that didn't happen with Le Richebourg in 2019.

The two mare's mentioned scrambled home at Naas. Neither was remotely impressive. Ashroe Diamond got into the bottom of virtually every hurdle, and that technique won't work in better races. Two disasters for Blackmore coming down with both races in the balance, and having sat still on the approach to both fences.

Finally, it would be amiss not to mention two very fine rides by Charlie Deutsch at Uttoxeter. Two excellent examples of giving inexperienced horses every chance to win without giving them too hard a race. Hopefully, Daly will be giving him plenty of opportunities. Three winners from four runners for the yard which might well have been a full house had Alice Stevens not given Jimmy The Digger an over confident ride.
By:
differentdrum
When: 13 Nov 22 17:12
More farcical stuff with flights omitted due to the low sun. Navan started their card nearly an hour an a half earlier couldn't Cheltenham have done exactly the same with what was only a six race card.

Springwell Bay didn't jump well enough even with the flights omitted, and was also exposed for a gear at that trip. I should imagine it's up in trip, and dropped in class next time.

It's a funny old game quite often where jocks are concerned. Twiston-Davies had dreadful rounds yesterday on Stolen Silver, and again today on Fantastikas. Both beaten favourites. Then after a shambles at the start he goes on to land the Greatwood. Even in that race he lost a couple of lengths at the first. Harbour Lake was badly outpaced in that race, but should resume winning ways upped in trip. Perhaps with a return for the Coral Cup down the line.

Over in Ireland 'Bob was back' or was he, in fact was he ever there in the first place? Along with Envoi Allen and Samcro, he has been one of the biggest hype horses in recent years. Today he was turned over by 28/1 shot having stuck his head in the air, and found next to nothing off the bridle. I am happy to watch him do it as you can go penniless following horses who display those sort of traits.

Yet another reverse for Elliott and short price takers in the bumper.

Few more runners for O'Neill tomorrow.

Toute Chic is probably the first horse they have had for the Kendricks. Kendrick gets no outside rides for good reason, and this filly will need to show massive improvement on her stable debut to be competitive in this race.

Hungry Hill got too far behind on his bumper debut, and was ultimately outpaced in a slowly run race. The three who beat him have all won races since. It is a surprise to see him start at the minimum, albeit on a stiff track. Even so I would expect this to be too sharp a test, and a staying on fifth or sixth would seem the most likely outcome.

Came From Nothing is an interesting debutant in the bumper. He was relatively expensive at 62,000, but would probably have been more expensive had he been sold after his half sister, Marie's Rock, had won the Mare's Hurdle. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him in the shake up, but of the newcomers I would prefer Big Fish, who had been due to make his debut in the abandoned Sandown race.
By:
paulo47
When: 13 Nov 22 17:59
Slevin must have read your comment yesterday ....
By:
differentdrum
When: 14 Nov 22 16:45
Pretty much as expected today. The Composeur was also very disappointing in an earlier race. I would give Hungry Hill another chance over a longer trip. He started off okay, but it looked as if he got very short short of room, and from that point continually ballooned his hurdles. I have already commented about O'Neill's rides spending too much time in the air, but this was an extreme case. Hopefully, his confidence can be repaired. The horse in the last was ultimately weak in the market, and was tapped for toe in a race run at a dawdle. Hard not to feel a bit peeved about Big Fish with Bellamy ending up in a very poor track position, and having to quickly find 5 lengths on the winner. Even then had he switched his whip into his left hand and given him a couple of taps he would probably still have won. The winner had finished behind Love In Sea in her point just emphasising what a dire ride Reddington gave that one at Cheltenham a couple of days ago.

Three at Hereford tomorrow. Playtogetaway was the horse I thought was going to beat Idalko Bihoue in his point. He was outpaced in a ordinary Warwick bumper, and it looks a strange move to run him over the minimum at Hereford. It would be a big surprise if he was quick enough, and maybe the idea is to get him handicapped, and then step up in trip. All For Glory was dreadful on hurdling debut when her jumping was poor, and she stopped to nothing. She goes up in trip, but on that evidence it is hard to be optimistic. By far the best chance of a winner appears to be Magic Seven is the closing bumper. He must have a good chance, particularly if the newcomers are not up to much.
By:
differentdrum
When: 15 Nov 22 16:29
Again not too many surprises with the two novices disappearing into the distance. All The Glory jumped a bit better, but again has stopped to nothing. Magic Seven won nicely, but I doubt he beat very much. It might be pushing it to concede a penalty. Bailey sheep getting their fingers burnt again.

Three impressive winners for Elliott at Fairyhouse. Harmonya Maker outstayed the favourite in the opener, and is clearly very useful under these conditions. Big question is whether this ground is vital. Having backed Geri Colombe for both Festival novice hurdles before he had jumped a hurdle it was disappointing not to get a run in the Albert Bartlett. That said his jumping of a hurdle was  scruffy at best, and I doubt in hindsight he would have beaten The Nice Guy. Although he was by no means extravagant his jumping of a fence was much better. I would imagine he will eventually be upped to three miles, or even further. I have a feeling that Search For Glory is better than the bare result in the bumper. I doubt he will stick around in bumpers, but he should make a fair staying novice hurdler ahead of the expected chasing career.

Two for O'Neill on a decent Warwick card. Even without the recent Henderson recruit the staying novice hurdle looks like a Graded race. Pride Rock makes his debut in the shorter novice. A half brother to Beauport, at 80,000 he was a relatively expensive store. He is likely to need a stiffer test, and this looks a very tough ask against a couple of useful looking rivals. The closing bumper doesn't look the hottest race, but my guess would be that Walk Of No Shame is running for place money again. She seems to lack a gear. My preference would be for On Se Calme, who having made her debut in a hot race, made the running to win next time. The obvious negative would be that it is almost unheard of for a King runner to make the running in a bumper, in fact it is rare in any race.
By:
differentdrum
When: 16 Nov 22 16:31
Walk Of No Shame having looked booked for fifth outstayed her rivals inside the final furlong. Walk In Park's are not noted for wanting attritional conditions, but this was probably more about a stamina test than the ground. It makes you wonder if she would have had better results had she been sent forward rather than wait for a gear that wasn't there. It seems very likely she will need two and a half miles plus over hurdles. On Se Calme was weak in the market, and ran no race at all. She ended up nearly last and was effectively beaten before halfway. Assuming she was the fit the ground looks a big negative. Pride Rock was an eyecatcher in the first novice hurdle. He was never at the races, but could well have finished fifth if he hadn't run up the back of other horses. Needless to say he should do much better upped in trip. The horse in the veteran's chase raced prominently, but stopped as if shot.

The novice hurdles presented the bookmakers with two early Christmas presents. Yesterday Williams had two runners that went off 100/30 and were beaten a combined total of 85 lengths taking his losing run to 31. It was inevitable if he won one of these it would go off a huge price. How could anyone back anything he runs in a novice hurdle? As I said earlier Tudor has just been schooling them round. It probably wasn't the greatest race with presumably the favourite not coping with the ground, and the second favourite wanting a longer trip. On paper the staying novice looked really strong, but virtually everything at the top of the market disappointed. The favourite had a relatively easy lead and looked to be beaten on merit. It was a stiff ask for Spring Meadow, and an even stiffer one if you bungle nearly every hurdle. Twiston-Davies must rack up more mistakes than any other supposedly leading jock. Get Up Mush travelled as if he was running through glue, failing to reproduce anything like the Carlisle run. That said the winner won well for a stable who have been in the doldrums for a while.

Jonbon did it nicely against a rival who seemed to jump fences better than hurdles. Whether it was good enough to justify the short prices for the Arkle I am not so sure.

More modest offerings tomorrow, and no stable runners.
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Nov 22 17:46
Three stable runners tomorrow.

Broughshane makes his rules debut having travelled on the front end, and ran out an easy winner of his only point. It probably wasn't the strongest race, but he won in good style and was subsequently purchased for 150,000. He looked to enjoy the testing conditions, but horses can very easily make fools of you in that respect. I thought the testing conditions would be ideal for Transmission today, and it looked like he hated it, despite his previous runs under similar. This doesn't look the strongest Ascot novice so unless the Henderson horse is better than he has looked so far, Broughshane looks to have a decent chance.

Gary Clermont had been due to resume his chasing career at Carlisle so we can assume he has been ready for a while. This is a trappy little race, but if he jumps well (I always think Ascot is a difficult test as they quite often get racing early) I can see him also having every chance. His three hurdle runs at the course look solid.

Over at Chepstow it looks as if Cawthorne Lad is up against it. He looks a little too exposed, and the soft ground is unlikely to be in his favour.

I think it's a shame that Ascot feel the need to stage five handicaps tomorrow. If Grade 1 tracks are pandering to bookmakers what hope is there? Credit to Chepstow for only having the three tomorrow.

The novice races are not as good as some of those earlier in the season, but there are still a few interesting runners. I like Hold Up La Colmine in the first one. He travelled as well as anything on rules debut, and a repeat should be good enough in a weaker race. These days Hobbs has limited resources and he needs to be winning with this type of horse. Later on the card Doyen Star looks the speedier of two Williams recruits, but he has been put in plenty short enough given the guesswork over fitness and ground. I did think about Connolly at 14/1 (now gone) in the bumper, but couldn't stomach the prospect of another Bellamy hands and heels job.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 18 Nov 22 11:07
Noticed the runner up to Broughshane ( Copshill Lad) won a bumper easily for Milton Harris.
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Nov 22 14:13
Has Jonjo been giving out some 'naughty pills'?

Maybe the horses are so used to being held up? Seriously, you couldn't have guessed that was going to happen from the previous two flights, although he did start throwing his head about on the approach. You have to hope it was just the distraction of the loose horse. He was the money horse late in a race that I doubt took too much winning. I don't have that many bets, but that's the second run out in a couple of weeks following the bumper horse at Cheltenham. Has there been another in the meantime?

It didn't seem as if O'Neill was ready for the antics of Garry Clermont either. He got back into contention, but in truth he was an accident waiting to happen. Assuming all is well I presume it's back over hurdles.

Over at Chepstow a very easy win for Firestream despite not looking the full shilling. Shocking performance from Hold Up La Colmine. You win nothing trying to strangle a horse for a mile, and in the end he was lucky to hang on to third. Even if he had settled it seems very unlikely that he would have troubled the winner. Another Hobbs false dawn. He really needs to step up. Does he have one promising young horse?
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