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I don't think the novices and bumper are as good as yesterday. Plenty in the novice hurdles look as though they will want a longer trip. Of course that won't stop them being held up. I have chanced the Skelton horse with extra places in the second division. In the first division the support for Master Chewy doesn't surprise, but his run at Uttoxeter was very laboured. I would prefer to see him do it first. Had a dart at Cast's Tasha (again with extra places) in the bumper. She's a half sister to none other than Gwennie May Boy so can lightning strike twice? He seemed to enjoy the soft ground so assuming she strips fit a little rain might help. Her debut wasn't at all bad, and she represents an improving yard. Also be nice to see a winner for Ben Jones. Asked the question before, but I don't see what he has done wrong. Clarke aside he is still living off scraps. Many worse jockeys are getting more rides. The most obvious winner on the card is Sonigino who might be limbering up for a tilt at the Greatwood.
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I can only assume that I Giorni has been backed on the Honeyball history in these races rather than the point form. She stayed on nicely, but those behind have been subsequently exposed. When they are fancied you can usually expect a no nonsense ride so at least punters have that on their side.
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The 2nd Div and the bumper look very weak. The right ones are being backed in the the 1st Div. I watched a replay of Beau Balko this morning, and even though he won well enough, I wasn't blown away by his performance. So I'm not at all surprise he's very weak in the betting. I find it tricky to weigh up the French flat form and compare it against P2P & NH Flat. So I'll probably give the race a swerve. I'm thinking at the prices, the Skelton horse is interesting though. There's no doubt his runners are needing a race but they are running well enough for his runner here to be given a chance in what looks a weak race. No surprise to see that the Honeyball horse is being backed. He has a very good SR in these races and at this course and she wouldn't need to be anything special to score.
Good luck with your bets today Drum |
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Novice hurdles sometimes have up these strange results. No way the stable fancied it yesterday, although I appreciate the race fell apart. You can play on the 3 places at big prices on here. Many big, Huge 100-1 plus outsiders fill the places in these weak novice hurdles.
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Whippin Piccadilly over the years Ive only backed Skelton runners end of December and onwards. Its the same every year trainers are creatures of habit... Goodluck today lads
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Time to start backing them Trident. I backed Deafening Silence in the 2nd Div, he ran well as did the Nicholls horse. Both should win races over hurdles. The bumper involved a lot of guesswork and the Nicholls horse won really well, even if she didn't beat much. The star of the show though was definitely Pikar. This horse is the best Novice hurdler I've seen run in Britain so far this season, which includes those that ran in the Persian War.
I see your boy Ben got a double up Drum. I hope you had one or both of them? |
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Sadly no, my only two bets ended up being Sonigino (1.32/1) and Deafening Silence (7/1 5 places).
Another enjoyable day. Only downside listening the wittering of Luke Harvey. If you take the opposite view to everything he says you won't go far wrong. Master Chewy is cumbersome; slow at his hurdles, and slow away from them. I would be wary of taking a short price upped in trip. Deafening Silence sums up the Skeltons. He was clearly the best horse in the race and anything like a sensible ride and he wins. They are very lucky that they can afford to throw away opportunities like that. Of course all we got from Harvey was the life history of Fergal O'Brien. I think Soginino is a bit more than a fun horse. Presonally, I loved his jumping. He was accurate and quick. Who wants a hurdler who continually loses ground? Save for the bungle at the last it was a very good day for Ben Jones. I cashed out on Cast's Tasha on the basis of the paddock shots, the lack of money, and if a jock is on a run you just know it will end with your horse. Always happy to take a profit on the day. That said when she moved into contention I was thinking what an idiot. She travelled like the second best horse in the race, and if they can sort out today's issue she remains of interest. None of the pointers were remotely good enough and Walk Of No Shame was ridden to finish on ground that was too soft. |
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Decent chances at Worcester tomorrow.
Obviously, Fame And Concrete has been more fragile than solid, but if he translates the Newbury run he should be winning tomorrow. Why someone at Bet 365 put him in at 9/2 I don't know. Disappointed I wasn't around at the time. New Beginnings was very green and value for (far) more than the winning margin on his debut. Again if he translates he must have every chance. The point form in this race doesn't look that strong. The Twiston-Davies horse was left clear (would have been beaten) and finished very tired. Heads Or Harps might be more of a threat as at least he did win easily. Divine Inspiration was another who only won due to a rival departing. The more exposed Biowavego steps up in trip and might be vulnerable on ground softer than ideal. |
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Those who got the 9/2 (debatable how much they got!) must be feeling good about life right now. Although, I wouldn't want to back at the current price it is now because I don't think its complete given.
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Nice gamble landed
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When Gordon books Cobden....the money is down!
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Heads Or Harps might be more of a threat as at least he did win easily. The form of that race looks even better now.
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I only watched bits and pieces today in between doing a bit of Breeders Cup study. Much needed as I don't follow the US stuff at all closely. For what it's worth I liked Laurel River and Delight the most, and I thought the Turf looked a shocking renewal.
Anyway back to the real racing. I don't think today had anything like the quality of the previous two days. That said Idalko Bihoue was impressive in winning a division of the novice hurdle. He looks a much more likely prospect than the same owner's Master Chewy. I would imagine the Twister will now go for one of those small field Ballymore trials. The horse I thought would have beaten him in his point was Playtogetaway which is with Jonjo and has already disappointed badly in a bumper. Connections could offer no explanation for Heads And Harps and the near 400,000 influx into the Michael Scudamore yard doesn't exactly look money well spent. Talking of Jonjo he landed his winner with Biowavego who although uneasy in the market won the staying handicap for all the reasons I suggested he wouldn't. The less said about the others the better. Since I have been doing this little study I don't think I have seen Jonjo ride what I would call a decent race. Even the winners have been down the horse's ability, not the riders. While his dad keeps using him I can't see the stable going anywhere. Surely with the same opportunities Brogan would ride as many winners, and quite likely more? Nobody should be holding up stayers as often as he does. I went back and watched Fame And Concrete's Newbury run prior to today's race, and all he did was keep plugging away. Still he got the usual hold up ride, never jumped with any fluency and never looked likely to win. I would be wary even when he is stepped up in trip. New Beginnings travelled and jumped much better, but after the rider appeared to become unblanced (it was difficult to see what happened) the horse stopped to nothing. Over at Stratford it looked like the two Bens were going to land another nice winner with Ooh Betty, but she also stopped to nothing. That's two in a row following a winner which makes it very difficult for punters to know what to expect. |
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Valentine Getaway ran well enough today. She jumps and tries, and she is probably worth a try over a longer trip. The winner showed a nice gear to go clear and is worth a shot at something better.
I backed Anyharminasking for two handicaps at the Festival, but he didn't show up which suggests all was not well after he went up 23lbs for the two easy wins. As the horse that beat Constitution Hill he was always going to be of interest. O'Neill rides everything like a handicapper but my guess would be that if he is now right he should be good enough to defy the new mark. That said he is relatively weak in the market. Drying ground would be a plus. Soldierofthestorm is a home bred running in the bumper. O'Neill must have had a choice of what to run in this race so you would assume that this one must have been showing something to take up the entry. The half sister won a bumper at Warwick on debut. Nothing stands out on pedigree or form so nothing would surprise. Way Out beat a very smart subsequent bumper winner, but that horse's speed would have been nullified by conditions. It actually looks a very tricky punting day. I am not surprised Joe Dadancer has been backed in Wetherby's opener. He would have bolted up in his point, and you would expect a similar no nonsense ride again. Alarm bells should ring if it isn't. |
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Yes, it was tricky today.
Bookmakers in clover from the off. Gowel Road looked about as far removed from a natural jumper as you could get at Perth and although he wasn't great again today, the race has fallen apart and he has ended up an easy winner. The layers couldn't have written a better result for the opener at Wetherby. Joe Dadancer turned in an absolute shocker, and the second favourite was never involved. Three possible explanations for Joe DaDancer: he isn't that good which would mean ignoring his point run, the market support, and the way he travelled in the first part of the race; he has some sort of injury/problem which has not been reported, or he was woefully unfit. It's a puzzle because the last explanation would suggest Pauling is a complete mug. The next run should shed some light, but after that nobody is going to be steaming in. The time might suggest otherwise, but it looked as if Sheehan nicked the handicap hurdle at Ascot. Anyharminasking was never travelling, and looked a shadow of the horse racking up those easy wins. Ground wasn't bad enough to excuse that, and it looks as if he isn't free of whatever issue curtailed last season. The bumper was run at a crawl in early stages which I doubt suited several, including second and third. Way Out gave a nice boost to Imonlysaying who I would imagine is much better than any of these. I wouldn't be hailing Nicholls as sort of bumper king. I think it's more a case that he gets his horse's fit, and tries to win, whereas an increasing number of middle tier trainers operate as if they couldn't be bothered. Sadly, Ahoy Senor was another to run an absolute shocker. I know he has the two standout wins at Aintree, but questions have to be asked about Fox/Russell. He just looks unsafe. They have had him long enough now to at least have made some progress in sorting out his jumping. It is pretty obvious they haven't managed to do that. Chances are it's not going to happen, and he will get away with it on occasions, but on others we will just see a repeat of today. He is now a bookmaker's horse as punters will have no idea which days will be the good ones. With him out of the way the race probably didn't take much winning. I thought Paint The Dream's run was a puzzle. Brace wasn't prepared go forward against handicappers at Chepstow, but was happy to lead Grade 1 horses in this race? Some very good racing at Carlisle tomorrow, and some interesting novices at Galway and Wexford. Last season Paul Nolan seemed to unearth a couple of promising types in Sandor Clegane and Joyeux Machin, but by the end of the season the wheels had come off both. Sandor Clegane was poor today, not looking the most genuine, and it will be interesting to see if Joyeux Machin can stage a revival tomorrow. The fact that he was pulled up at the Festival wouldn't encourage regarding the ground conditions. |
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Two runners today in the opening two races at Carlisle, Top Row and Iron Bridge. Already discussed Top Row before he was pulled out at the last meeting. If anything this is tougher, and a place would probably be a good result. I think Iron Bridge is the better win prospect, but again a place would be a good result in what is a cracking race for the money. The ground shouldn't be an issue.
It will interesting to see how Bear Ghylls jumps in the Colin Parker. I don't think the stable made the most of his talent over hurdles, and they have had a nightmare run since he was injured. The opener at Galway could easily have an influence on the Mare's Novice at the Festival. Battling Bessie really looks the part for jumping, and should like conditions, but there seems a lot of market confidence in Elliott's 385,000 purchase. |
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Fancy Grove Road in the opener, looked a fair race when he ran 3rd in Ireland, with the first 2 both
going on to win good races in England. |
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WOW, Drifters do win, doubled in price before the off, I thought his sloppy jumping would do for him but he battled on well.
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Sorry,DD……..Top Row ?
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Well done Drum.He looks top class to me!
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Looks like Skelton runners are fitter, we will see im not 100% confident they are all tuned up!!
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Aye, will be a few future winners coming out of that race. Well spotted Drum.
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Top Row moved into the race as if he would have every chance so it was disappointing to see him drop out so badly. You are now left wondering whether that was fitness or a problem?
Iron Bridge jumped really well, and stayed on nicely. I think it was a good race. He may end up a handicapper, but they should at least train him as a good horse. With The Nice Guy out of the way I will have a look at quotes for the Brown Advisory and National Hunt Chase. It's amazing how often these big Irish trainers convert with these expensive ex-pointers. Two more already today at Galway and Wexford. In the end all the money was for Battling Bessie, but she ran a dreadful race. She has a flat pedigree and never travelled or jumped with any fluency. On this evidence she is going to struggle to win an ordinary maiden. At Wexford Joyeux Machin was another disappointment for Paul Nolan. He finished third, but was never at the races. Transmission was really galling. I was hoping to make some money off this one, but ridden by a 7lb claimer the cat's well and truly out the bag. Well done Glasgow. |
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Again…….Top Row ?
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backing his Morning Spirit in the 3.40, will like the ground and first time out might be the time to catch him.
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Yes, great call Glasgow. It's always nice to get a much better price about one you fancy. Also Archie is a very talented trainer IMO
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I have no idea why I have started calling Cedar Row as Top Row. I think it's called a mistake.
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I know it's only one piece of evidence, but Bear Ghylls looks a much safer proposition over fences. Just that one mistake before he got tired. He should have no problem winning a novice before looking at something better. At this stage I can't see the need to step him up in trip. The winner is a useful yardstick who would have relished conditions.
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Just a couple of closing thoughts on Carlisle.
I wouldn't take that Colin Parker result at face value. I think a fitter version of Bear Ghylls would have every chance of making up that deficit. Good Risk At All won very easily, but his jumping is still ponderous at best. At the moment I think he needs slow ground to get away with it. |
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Stable took the low grade handicap that opened today's Hereford card. Quite a rarity to see one that isn't strangled running for the yard. It shows that can do it, and it does work. If he settles a bit better, and improves his jumping, he might be able to nick one or two more as he shouldn't go up too much for today's win.
Crebilly runs in tomorrow's novice hurdle. He is from the family of Deep Bramble and Seven Towers, but there are an awful lot more duffers in the family as well. From a distance he doesn't look that big and both starts would suggest he isn't the quickest tool. Again you would think sending him forward wouldn't be the worst idea. Neither piece of form has been franked. That said there isn't a really strong piece of form in tomorrow's race, and just about any result is possible. |
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Crebilly taken out self certificate. Had drifted which suggested today wasn't going to be the day. Longsdon's now looks very short. Little surprised at Gunnery Officer being supported. Tommy's Oscar a notable exception, but If Colin Bowe has a good one it usually wins on first or second start. This one's jumping hasn't been that good either. The closing bumper has a similar feel with nothing standing out hence it is currently 5/1 the field. The Easterby horse the biggest mover 125/1-12/1. Interesting to see if that is sustained. Hughes looks a notable booking, but the horse was sold on for just 1,000. Possibly someone trying to nick a few quid with a back to lay. Novice chase is interesting, but not sure how many would want the ground to deteriorate. Hopefully, they all run.
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Well gamble landed with Gunnery Officer. My take would be that if he could win it then it wasn't much of race, but time will tell. Will that much bigger gamble be landed in the last? Now down to around 4/1.
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Stage Star much the most straightforward in the novice chase. I wouldn't be sure how much racing he can take again this season. I certainly wouldn't be rushing to back him for the Festival. The Williams horse might be of some interest dropped back in trip, and minus Noonan.
The bumper should be an embarrassment for so many trainers. Henderson gets one fit, out on the front end, and wins very easily. You would think others might take note, but I doubt it. One such would be Emma Lavelle. Two horses that made progress from off the pace only to stop to nothing. Woefully unfit? In this day and age that isn't good enough. More good midweek sport at Chepstow tomorrow. Hopefully, there are not too many non runners on the likely testing ground. Two for O'Neill in the novices. I would be surprised if either is seriously involved. Dr Hegarty is in the same ownership as Biowavego. He has a reasonable pedigree, but his full brother has been kept away from testing ground, and this looks by far the stronger of the two divisions. Time For A Pint was a relatively cheap purchase off the back of winning a point on a technicality. This looks too strong. Evan Williams looks the trainer of most interest tomorrow with three hurdling debutants in the novice races, and one in the bumper. The one I would be most looking forward to would be Out Of Office. He was purchased for 160,000 having jumped particularly well, and quickened up smartly to see off a promising horse of Pat Doyle's. It looks a strong enough race tomorrow, but it will be disappoing if he can't play a part in the finish. Sergeant Wilson makes a quick reappearance. He looked something of a nut job first time, and there are lots of open spaces at Chepstow. It looks like the Twister is out to prove a point. In the bumper it might be worth noting that Twiston-Davies has gone to Musselburgh rather than ride the rare non-french bred for Sam Thomas in the bumper. In the opening novice I will keep an eye on Unspeakable. He isn't going to win tomorrow, but although he was beaten miles on his reappearance I thought that there was a hint of promise. |
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An update on Iron Bridge.
I couldn't get more than 33/1 out of Bet 365 for the National Hunt Chase and Brown Advisory. William Hill were less impressed offering 66/1 (can be boosted to 75/1) for the Brown Advisory. Clearly they don't think the trainer can steer the horse to that target. They might be right, but there are worse prices you could throw a few quid at. |
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I was very impressed by Iron Bridge, I thought he jumped really well and he looked like a natural at the game. I think the bookies might have underestimated him. He's not ground dependent and you know he's going to stay really well.It will be very interesting to see where he turns up next.
Have you had a look at Chepstow? There's some nice looking Maiden Hurdles on the card. |
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Yes, looking forward to them. As above will be watching the four Williams runners. At the moment only the relatively exposed one looks fancied in the weakest race. Nothing for Out Of Office, but it wouldn't be unheard of for the stable to throw in the odd big priced one at this track. Hoping the ground is testing enough to make it seem like a long two miles, but I don't think he is devoid of pace which is probably why he is in the shorter race.
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As expected the O'Neill horses were nowhere near good enough. Dr Hegarty the better of the two, but they need their sights lowering to be competitive.
Not a great day if you punted the Williams runners. Only the first one was seriously interested in winning (which the market suggested), but serial bridle merchant Wedge messed up by not putting the race to bed when travelling much the best. Really poor riding. I am not going to give up on Unspeakable. Although he was miles behind you caught a glimpse of the head on, and he had plenty left crossing the line. When he eventually runs over the right trip I think he might well be seen in a different light. Even though he was beaten ten lengths it wouldn't surprise me if Out Of Office does turn out to be the best horse on view. He jumped very nicely, was allowed to drop out of contention, before running on under what can only be described as tender handling. It's amazing how these horses can be prepped to win their point, but when it comes to starting off under rules the trainer is so often not overly bothered about winning. I assume the horse will now run over a more suitable trip. I thought there was a lot more promise in this run than Hurricane Highway produced in the longer novice. That one looks a three mile handicapper. Similar to the comments about Henderson yesterday, Nicholls embarrassing the rest. Get the horses fit, bang them out on the front end, and bingo. The others need to step up. Talking about embarrassing Harvey excelling himself again today. It was excrutiating listening to him talking about the wrong horse. These are the cards that Sky should make the most of, but they send the biggest clown in racing, and intersperse the racing with adverts for the Breeders Cup. Not good enough. |
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Deja vu in the last. Nicholls wins with another nice prospect. Cobden isn't having to do much more than point and fire. It seems every season Nicholls gets off to this kind of start. Horses fit, tactics sound, and the results follow. On the other hand Secret Plan stays on nicely in fourth having never seriously looked like being involved for the places.
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Looks as though STD would have been better off at Chepstow with ground going against his mounts at Musselburgh and might have made the difference in the bumper,yes DD nothing wrong with Cobden but whereas Hughes gets a load of stick for all his Northern gimees Nicholls provides Cobden with plenty.
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Although operating at a lower level than Nicholls, McCain is another one of those trainers who believes in getting his horses fit, and keeping it simple.
Dollar Bae and Itso Fury tomorrow at Ludlow. Dollar Bae has been disappointing since winning on stable debut. She was easily brushed aside on hurdling debut when her jumping wasn't much more than adequate. I think the step up in trip has to make a big difference if she is to do anything more than place again. Itso Fury was an easy winner on hurdling debut, but probably didn't beat very much. He looks short enough against two potential improvers, and a hurdling debutant. I was interested in Blenkinsop stepping up in trip in the last, but not at 7/2. |