Forums
There are currently 7 people viewing this thread.
differentdrum
04 Oct 22 12:01
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 15,442 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
Plenty of well bred youngsters entered this week. It looks as he is trying to get off to a flyer.

Unfortunately, in recent years I can't remember him producing too many serious bumper/novices. I am surprised so many invest so much, and end up with what are effectively five-year handicap projects.

He needs to do better with the ammunition he gets.

Today he runs Collectors Item at Huntingdon. On his two runs he is much better than this opposition, but he hasn't been strong in the market and you have to wonder if two miles on a sharp track on quickish ground is going to be ideal for a national hunt bred horse with his profile.

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 7  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 256
By:
formoftheace
When: 04 Oct 22 12:13
Difficult yard to follow best laying….
By:
differentdrum
When: 07 Oct 22 19:20
Two reasonable efforts in the Worcester bumper yesterday, but no cigar. This happens a little too often.

Collectors Dream won today. On form it was 1/2 shot, but the ride confirms why it went off 11/8. The horse got the jock out of jail. Had he not been so genuine, or bungled the last he wouldn't have won. A stayer ridden for a change of pace. It happens over and over again with this combination. You would almost think they don't want to win. Was the trainer asleep during the Martin Pipe era? If your horse is fit, and in this day and age why wouldn't it be, there is no advantage to be gained from riding horses off the pace. Henderson knows that, Nicholls knows that, why does Jonjo have so much difficulty with the idea?
By:
formoftheace
When: 07 Oct 22 19:31
Place lay and lay…..that’s it….
By:
differentdrum
When: 12 Oct 22 18:24
Runs 270,000 purchase Saint Davy in the last at Carlisle tomorrow. Stylish point winner, but only the fourth has done anything for the form, and clearly he has improved since that debut. If he is worth anything like that money he should be up to winning an ordinary bumper, but impossible to be too confident given O'Neill's penchant for making the relatively simple seem complicated. 

In fact it should be a short priced double for connections.
By:
differentdrum
When: 13 Oct 22 17:37
Double landed although not so short priced as the bumper horse was a big drifter. You could see why. To make his task harder he has been taken four wide, and he has ended up plodding on better than what was probably a very modest bunch. Stable will be hoping that their other big money purchase, The Gooner (280,000), is a bit more impressive than this one.   

Today's first leg probably didn't have that much to beat either, particularly with Skelton thinking he could out speed the favourite with a three mile plodder.
By:
differentdrum
When: 14 Oct 22 11:46
Mellificent should continue the run today.

Anything like a reproduction of the Irish run and it should win easily. The long straight should reduce the chances of traffic problems.
By:
differentdrum
When: 14 Oct 22 16:51
Not overly impressive, but got the job done. One nasty moment when the jock became unblanced early on. Can't help thinking these would be going off even shorter if punters had any trust in Jonjo.
By:
sageform
When: 14 Oct 22 20:17
A lot of short prices but at least they are winning.
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Oct 22 18:39
Over the last two weeks these have won, but everything else has been beaten.

A few chances to add another winner tomorrow, but if the rain arrives it's going to be difficult.

Ground at Worcester is currently given as good, but how much rain are they going to get? If everything runs it's the most interesting card thus far, and particularly good for a Wednesday.

If Fame And Concrete reproduces his Newbury run he should be odds on, but I doubt he would want too much rain, and he has already bombed once in his three starts. Little bit of a surprise he isn't starting over a shorter trip. Several point to point plodders in opposition, the most interesting of which looks to be Thomas Mor, but on point form he looks another who wouldn't want the rain.

The horse in the bumper is from the Artiste Gaye line, but it's not a pedigree that shouts bumper winner. Nicholls had a beaten favourite from the same family a couple of days ago. I doubt that they would be disappointed if it finished in the first six. Bit surprised that O'Neill can just get off the stable's runner to ride for McManus. Surely De Bonville could have done the steering to avoid a clash?

All The Glory looks to have landed in the stronger of the two mare's races, but on bumper form she should at least place. Again I would suspect rain would be a big minus.
By:
differentdrum
When: 19 Oct 22 19:12
All pretty much as expected today on ground that appeared closer to soft than good.

Fame And Concrete taken out after All The Glory ran a shocker. Neither should have run although All The Glory had jumped very poorly before dropping away to nothing.

The bumper horse ran well without ever being involved. You would think he should pick up a staying novice hurdle at some point.

I would chalk up Thomas Mor as he showed a decent attitude on ground that wouldn't have suited. The second was the first horse cut last night so a big run was expected.

One runner tomorrow - Cedar Row - in what looks the hottest race of the day. Related to Turpin Green and Grange Brake, he bolted up in a point bumper, but chances are it wasn't a strong race. I think running in the four would be a good effort against some potentially decent ex-Irish pointers. Harjo came from well off the pace to easily win his second start, and to my eyes Get Up Mush looked to be coming to win his race when making a horlicks of the second last. The winner sold for 350,000. I would take it as a positive that Skelton didn't put him in his ATR list. My inclination is to chance both against the favourite.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Oct 22 11:59
Cedar Row out.

Very strange betting on the race, both Get Up Mush and Harjo were bumped out this morning, but now appear strong again.
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Oct 22 13:57
Very frustrating from a punting angle. Second and third very likely to be better than the winner, but the winner has been given a ground saving ride, and ridden to win today. It is very hard to make up ground on that sort of surface. Skelton conceded at least seven lengths, and then bungled the third last. Eventually the ride has told and he has dropped away. So often Skelton rides that race, and he either has to have pounds in hand and/or everything has to go perfectly. It isn't a punter friendly way to ride. The second was scruffy at many hurdles, and consequently gave himself too much to do.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 20 Oct 22 14:08
Second and third very likely to be better than the winner
Confused Not sure how you've come to that conclusion. But we all see races differently. My take on the race is
the unbeaten winner looks the type that just does enough. Thought he won with plenty in hand. The 2nd is an out and out stayer and if he gets a step up in trip on an equally stiff track next time out, I would be very interesting in backing him. The third looks a bit one paced and possibly needed the race
By:
formoftheace
When: 20 Oct 22 15:27
Just like most stables…hard to get a grip on..
By:
differentdrum
When: 20 Oct 22 21:17
The second looks to stay well on the evidence of both today and his point, but given he didn't jump with any fluency I wouldn't be rushing to back him at a relatively short price next time. Disagree entirely on the third. Market support (5/1-2/1) would suggest he was fit enough. He went backwards because he couldn't make up seven lengths and sustain the effort, particularly with that mistake. I expect him to have more than enough pace to win over the intermediate trip. As the analysis suggests both second and third didn't settle as well as the winner, but I wouldn't make too many excuses on that front.

Carrigdoun Boy runs in the last at Cheltenham, but I suspect they were probably just looking for a good ground starting point, and he is essentially making up the numbers. He was a shade fortunate to win an ordinary bumper, and was twice turned aside under a penalty. I will be keeping an eye on the two Michael Scudamore runners tomoorow: the one in this race doesn't appear fancied at all, but the earlier one was the most impressive novice winner I have seen this season, and has been punted accordingly. Hopefully, he copes with the undulations.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 21 Oct 22 13:49
Looks like the Skelton beasts are needing a run. Nice run by Calico there. Didn't win last season but surely he will off his current mark this season
By:
differentdrum
When: 21 Oct 22 18:02
For once a decent punting day. Mofasa wasn't as good as at Uttoxeter, but displayed a good attitude having nearly thrown it away at the last. He again travelled like a decent horse. Decent effort by the horse in the last. He looks the part, and now that he has finished a race off hopefully he can continue to progress. I had 50/1 six places, and even without the casualties I think he would probably have just about justified that position.
By:
differentdrum
When: 22 Oct 22 11:08
An Tailliur has done very little wrong since he should have won at Taunton last year. He is usually a very good traveller who has been doing his winning in much less competitive races than this one. It's good news the rain has stayed away. The biggest problem is the price given that there are question marks about course, quality of race, and current mark (up three stone since his first win). My suspicion is he might just find a few too strong up the hill.
By:
differentdrum
When: 22 Oct 22 17:59
Very good run, but would have been closer had he turned in a cleaner round of jumping. Might be able to nick another off this mark if they can avoid the soft ground.
By:
formoftheace
When: 22 Oct 22 18:44
Dreadful yard…..end of….
By:
differentdrum
When: 24 Oct 22 20:01
Three novices tomorrow.

Track And Trace was poor on bumper debut. He will have to step up massively to figure in a much better race tomorrow. Having been a very impressive point winner showing a nice gear I had expected much better from Chianti Classico. On a couple of occasions he didn't really finish his race off. Hopefully, he can do a deal better tomorrow. I am not sure the Nicholls horse has done enough to be such a short price. Interesting market support for Unspeakable as the stable don't win novice races. He was length down and looked beaten when coming down at the last on point debut.

Wideeyedandlegless doesn't have much of a pedigree and it probably wasn't much of a race he won on debut. That said he looks the part, jumped very well, and looked to stay very well. You would love to think O'Neill might make the most of those attributes and go off in front, but we know that never happens. Hopefully, even with a negative ride he can challenge the places. Of the others Tightenourbelts ran third in an above average point, and is probably worth keeping an eye on.

Gwennie May Boy goes at Bangor and although he has a smart pedigree (Black Jack Ketchum is in there) this test looks like it will be on the sharp side for him. The current 20/1 with Bet 365 looks much closer to the mark than the general 8/1. Given how he bolted up in his bumper Sergeant Wilson has to be of interest. I am surprised he wasn't put in shorter.

In the concluding bumper Peaky Boy is of obvious interest given his pedigree, his purchase price of 240,000, and the fact that Scudamore doesn't appear to have sold him. Add in Tommy seems to be riding this one in preference to the not quite so expensive Pipe horse in the concluding Chepstow bumper.
By:
differentdrum
When: 24 Oct 22 20:08
Any chance that someone could upload the Racing Post Stable Tour?
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 24 Oct 22 23:41
The first race at Chepstow is a very interesting. A few in there to keep close tabs on this season, especially the Kim Bailey horse. I agree with you about him not seeing out the race at Ascot and he was too keen at Aintree. He's probably strengthened up now and I think you will see a more finished article this season.
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Oct 22 12:01
There hasn't been any great market support for Chianti Classico which isn't a great sign. If he doesn't finish his race off today chances are he won't win. Not many weak finishers enjoy that long straight.

Peaky Boy appears to have been hammered in the last at Bangor. There has been a bit of money for the Sam Thomas bumper horses. Not sure if that is specific or just a roll forward from a few winners in the sphere last year?
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 25 Oct 22 13:04
A most pleasing result! Cool Jumped superbly and I'm thankful the Skelton beasts are needing a run.
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Oct 22 13:16
It was smashed up late. Fortunately, I took the opening 9/2 last night. Perhaps a little fortunate relative to the second who was clumsy a little too often. As for the winner he was awkward himself in the early stages, but he settled and jumped better as the race progressed. I did think he was going to drop away again, but he kept on well enough. Very glad the Skelton horse didn't win as 9/10 of his youngsters will just fart about out the back. Exact opposite with this one who was running for the bookmakers. O'Neill horse wasn't good enough, but showed enough to be picking up a race when dropped in class.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 25 Oct 22 13:37
Got plenty on here at just over 9/2. Disco did the right thing bringing him over to the stands rail and after pulling really hard early doors he settled and jumped really well. I actually thought he won a big snugly in the end. If this guy can learn to settle he can be very competitive in the top Novice races this season.


Another 2nd for Skelton there after looking the winner.
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Oct 22 14:13
Very good run from Wideeyedandlegless despite the predictable poor ride. Came to win his race and just hadn't got the gears in a slowly run race. O'Neill should have been doing what Cobden did, but he never does. Money down the drain on Tightenourbelts. Bellamy another jock who invariably comes from off the pace. Cobden outrode the lot of them. Many trainers must go around with their eyes shut. Nicholls, Henderson, Mullins, and Elliott don't have their horses continually ridden off the pace. They haven't become top trainers by being tactically inept.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 25 Oct 22 15:04
" Bellamy from off the pace " was being diplomatic, not sure what he was playing at getting that far back, horse finished better than anything in the race imo.
By:
in hell
When: 25 Oct 22 15:22
Nice winner, 80/1
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 25 Oct 22 15:22
That one should help the level steaks for season.

Gwennie may boy
By:
MJK
When: 25 Oct 22 15:26
At least his horses are usually well schooled. So many novices these days look as though the racecourse is the first time they've seen an obstacle.
By:
acey deucy
When: 25 Oct 22 15:31
I mean for a set up like he has the guy should be fighting for Champion Trainer every Year ffs.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 25 Oct 22 15:31
Even the connections didn't fancy it! Looked a weak race beforehand and the result confirms it.
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Oct 22 15:37
Mad race, but nice story with the winner. You knew once he got close he was going to stay, and he should improve for more of a test. Question answered regarding why Sergeant Wilson wasn't put in shorter. No reason to have done that, and he looks a nut job.
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Oct 22 17:38
I don't think anyone will be rushing to pay Scudamore 240,000 after that effort. I think Tommy tracked the wrong one, but his finish was very tame, and the winner at nearly half the price looked a much nicer stamp. He also benefitted from no nonsense ride. The Pipe horse was uneasy drifter in the last at Chepstow, and on that evidence the trainer might well have purchased yet another very slow dud.
By:
differentdrum
When: 25 Oct 22 18:00
Walk Of No Shame runs in the last at Chepstow tomorrow. She had every chance to win both her starts, but having travelled well didn't see either race out. I doubt she wants softening ground, and I wouldn't be surprised if she drifted from the current 7/1. It doesn't look a strong race with the three bits of point form looking ordinary. A shock wouldn't be the biggest surprise.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 25 Oct 22 23:02
Lots of guesswork involved in that one Drum. I like the look of the 2 Novice hurdles on the card, especially the 1st Div which has some strength in depth to it. The 2nd Division doesn't look as strong and I'd want to see how the Nicholls horse goes to post before considering a bet on him. His half Brother Soft Risk is in the notebook for this season. I think he has a nice Handicap Hurdle in him off his current mark of 128
By:
differentdrum
When: 26 Oct 22 00:46
The horse who tonked Realisation in their point was Between Waters who is now with Henderson (Tabor). She had already been trimmed for the Mare's Novice, and not surprisingly has been trimmed a bit more to around 16/1.
Page 1 of 7  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com