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Gaze733
22 Sep 22 15:35
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 8,038 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
Angels Roc ran 10 days ago, won by 6 lengths but clown handicappers don't mind. And why is it a drifter then? It stinks.
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Report stridingedge September 22, 2022 3:41 PM BST
not penalised for apprentice race win
Report N-east Correspondent September 22, 2022 3:46 PM BST
small horses can't carry anymore weight so it remains the same
new guidelines in conjunction with animal welfare groups
Report stridingedge September 22, 2022 3:47 PM BST
its on the aw tonight Gaz
Report onlooker September 22, 2022 4:17 PM BST
New - Re-Handicapped Ratings - come into effect for Saturday racing and onwards.

Angel Roc has to run of an 8lb HIGHER Rating from tomorrow ...

THAT is why it is running Tonight.
Report stridingedge September 22, 2022 4:19 PM BST
Don't tell him Grin
Report Gaze733 September 22, 2022 4:33 PM BST
A 6 length winner running off the same mark should be a cert but it's a 4/1 drifter so I think they know it will lose
Report Gaze733 September 22, 2022 4:34 PM BST
My holy grail says Jacks Profit is better
Report Gaze733 September 22, 2022 7:49 PM BST
I was right, they knew it would lose.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 22, 2022 8:04 PM BST
foad dc.
Report blackbarn September 22, 2022 8:12 PM BST
I had an idea Gaz wasn't very bright, now i am convinced.  How can anyone post the stuff he does without the faintest idea of the basics.
Report Gaze733 September 22, 2022 8:32 PM BST
And yet I'm a better tipster than you LOL

I'm a numbers guy, I don't need to know the intricacies of handicapping.
Report blackbarn September 22, 2022 9:01 PM BST
LaughLaughLaugh  Since you have no idea of my tipping ability and you seem incapable of tipping successfully, this seems an ambitious statement. 

You say you are a "numbers guy" but you profess not to understand the "intricacies of handicapping". Leaving aside that the point here is not at all intricate, you seem to be struggling with simple logic.
Report tanglefoot September 22, 2022 9:35 PM BST
Gaze’s brother is the numbers guy, gaze is just the dc.
Report Manoleeds September 22, 2022 9:46 PM BST
Here you go Gaze https://www.britishhorseracing.com/races-can-horse-run-handicap-rating/

That confirms what Striding Edge said "The racing week (explained below) runs from Sunday to Saturday inclusive. Any ratings we revise as a result of this week’s form are published the following Tuesday. Those changes only come into effect for races staged from the following Saturday onwards. At the extreme, if a horse wins on a Sunday its revised rating would only come into effect 13 days later.

The BHA permits horses that win at any time during this period to run again from their original rating but requires that they carry a penalty – a set amount of extra weight – in order to meet their opponents on more equitable terms.
Penalties are cumulative for each win during the period.

There are some exceptions to this rule. Wins in races confined to apprentice or conditional jockeys don’t usually attract penalties other than in another race of the same type. This is to encourage trainers and owners to run horses in such races, thereby providing vital education for inexperienced jockeys.

NB Over Jumps, success in a hurdle race doesn’t trigger a penalty in a chase nor vice versa.
Report The Management September 22, 2022 9:47 PM BST
A dangerous combination - a half-wit with boundless misplaced self-confidence. Cry
Report steerforth September 22, 2022 10:53 PM BST
Embarrassing!
Report Movewiththetimes September 23, 2022 8:52 AM BST
Small saddles is the problem they should ban them, can't fit anymore weight in them, have to find fatter jockeys Crazy
Report longbridge September 23, 2022 11:29 AM BST
@TM

"Half" is generous of you.
Report Gaze733 September 23, 2022 11:53 AM BST
@blackbarn or any of you clowns, would you be able to sustain over 25% roi backing at BSP in the next 1000 selections in 5 months? If not, you're a mug, if yes, congrats on being almost as shrood as me. It's all about the numbas.
Report Gaze733 September 23, 2022 11:56 AM BST
For example yesterday my numbas said Hoots Toots should be the fav with a 30% chance to win. He drifted from 6 to 8.8 and won. I didn't need to know anything else.
Report Movewiththetimes September 23, 2022 12:42 PM BST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rg-jtYXvI7M
Report blackbarn September 23, 2022 1:43 PM BST
"for example, yesterday......".   How about a for example today or tomorrow?  We can all aftertime.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 23, 2022 1:58 PM BST
Gaze733 22 Sep 22 15:35 
Angels Roc ran 10 days ago, won by 6 lengths but clown handicappers don't mind. And why is it a drifter then? It stinks.
stridingedge 22 Sep 22 15:41 
not penalised for apprentice race win

silly gaze..thicker than dion dublins cok.
Report steerforth September 23, 2022 2:14 PM BST

Sep 23, 2022 -- 11:56AM, Gaze733 wrote:


For example yesterday my numbas said Hoots Toots should be the fav with a 30% chance to win. He drifted from 6 to 8.8 and won. I didn't need to know anything else.


His "numbas" apparently produce a tissue without the fairly basic requirement of an understanding of how handicaps work.
Good trick.

Report Gaze733 September 23, 2022 2:54 PM BST
Tissues are for mugs. I let the market do the work and exploit the weaknesses at finalized prices. Let's say you have an angle that very few people know about - you don't know what the BSP will be, you just know that you can keep betting on that angle as long as the market doesn't catch up. After a while you get some stats with that angle, e.g. a 30% strike rate at avg odds 5.0. So the next time you see a horse fitting that angle and his BSP is 5.0, you can assume it should really be somewhere around 3.0-4.0, but it isn't because the market is dumbo.
Report The Management September 23, 2022 3:01 PM BST
Comma, Comma, Comma, Comma, Comma chameleon
Why won't you go?, why won't you go?,
Betting would be easy if the real thing was like your dream,
You're in the red but never green.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 23, 2022 4:14 PM BST
Report steerforth September 24, 2022 1:53 AM BST

Sep 23, 2022 -- 2:54PM, Gaze733 wrote:


Tissues are for mugs. I let the market do the work and exploit the weaknesses at finalized prices. Let's say you have an angle that very few people know about - you don't know what the BSP will be, you just know that you can keep betting on that angle as long as the market doesn't catch up. After a while you get some stats with that angle, e.g. a 30% strike rate at avg odds 5.0. So the next time you see a horse fitting that angle and his BSP is 5.0, you can assume it should really be somewhere around 3.0-4.0, but it isn't because the market is dumbo.


You have produced "numbas" that give Hoots Toots a 30% chance of winning. THAT'S a tissue dullard!

Report Gaze733 September 24, 2022 10:47 AM BST
Tissue is when you make your price for every runner in the race, that's much more exhausting.
Report GLASGOWCALLING September 24, 2022 11:00 AM BST
.... Akin to reading your umpteen mindless threads.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 24, 2022 11:03 AM BST
Gaze733 22 Sep 22 15:35 
Angels Roc ran 10 days ago, won by 6 lengths but clown handicappers don't mind.
stridingedge 22 Sep 22 15:41 
not penalised for apprentice race win

gaz = oscar nominated silllleeekkhhhuunt
Report steerforth September 24, 2022 1:00 PM BST

Sep 24, 2022 -- 10:47AM, Gaze733 wrote:


Tissue is when you make your price for every runner in the race, that's much more exhausting.


Ok so you only did the "numbas" for one horse in that race? Possibly ignoring one that maybe took up the rest of the 70% on its own. To come up with 30% chance of winning, by definition, you HAVE to take into consideration the percentage chance of all the other runners = A TISSUE
As usual you'll now have the last word and you'll be right and everyone else will be wrong. To pre-empt that strike I'm reiterating that you are totally wthout a clue.

Report Gaze733 September 24, 2022 1:04 PM BST
What kind of a horse deserves 70% of the market? Only odds-on shots. In an average handicap when I know my horse is very strong I don't need to worry about any other horse.
Report The Management September 24, 2022 1:09 PM BST
Gaze733 15 Feb 22 19:31
Horse Racing: €2438.32
Total P&L: €2438.32


WhoopsBlushBlush
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 24, 2022 1:13 PM BST
Laugh
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 24, 2022 1:13 PM BST
and this clown runs a tipping service?

abso fckn pmsl
Report clacton September 24, 2022 1:16 PM BST
Whats the tipping service called?
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 24, 2022 1:32 PM BST
charliecairoli@imaclown.com
Report steerforth September 24, 2022 1:45 PM BST

Sep 24, 2022 -- 1:04PM, Gaze733 wrote:


What kind of a horse deserves 70% of the market? Only odds-on shots. In an average handicap when I know my horse is very strong I don't need to worry about any other horse.


UN-F*NG-BELIEVABLE. Ok for the sake of trying to teach the incurably dense - THE 70% WAS EXAGGERATING TO MAKE A POINT.
FFS nobody is suggesting for a nano second that even you would miss an odds on shot of that magnitude. But even if you didn't the 30% would still taking others into account and setting that against the odds available. Whether you write them down or not, you've made a TISSUE

Report The Management September 24, 2022 1:48 PM BST
Goes through a lot of tissues imo
Report steerforth September 24, 2022 1:53 PM BST
"I don't need to worry about any other horse"

I'm slipping, I almost missed this gem. "Worrying" doesn't come into it. Your 30% assessment, again by definition, means you think it has a 70% chance of not winning. After that its all about the odds - at least you got that right. But its still predicted chance versus actual price available. And any horse in the race COULD meet the required criteria to be backable.
But then back to the beginning - all this calculation done without understanding why a horse has a particular handicap mark under the race conditions.
You shouldn't be let loose on the streets.
Report Gaze733 September 24, 2022 2:40 PM BST
When you have a horse at 5.0 and his chances are 30%, why would you back any other horse in that race? It's doubtful you'll find another one that has a 50% value because your top selection should be at 3.3 and the market doesn't know it.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 24, 2022 3:08 PM BST
Gaze733 15 Feb 22 19:31
Horse Racing: €2438.32
Total P&L: €2438.32

Gaze733 24 Sep 22 14:40 
When you have winning p&l why would you edit it?
Report steerforth September 24, 2022 3:14 PM BST
I'm off - see ya!
Report Rico-Dangleflaps September 24, 2022 4:38 PM BST
traaa
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