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Lucky Number, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 4.45 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
There might have been reasons to mark up Lucky Number's run over a mile at Gowran back in May when he finished fourth of 16, after he which he didn't offer much in a run over hurdles then back on the Flat later that month. He was having his third run back form a 5-month break when a fairly obvious eyecatcher at Dundalk last month over 12f, when he didn't get a clear run, in admittedly what was a slowly-run affair that saw many in with a chance up the straight. He found little over that same C/D a week later after making smooth headway into contention.
The step back in trip to a mile today might not be an issue given his previous form at the trip and how he has shaped over 12f recently at this track, however, this is a step up in grade and the market isn't too keen on his chance. So not sure what to expect, but if this is one of his better days and the race pans out well for him, then he might have a frame chance at least.
Alya's Gold Award, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 5.30 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)
Alya's Gold Award had suggested there might be a little race in her when trained by Richard Hughes, including on her final start for her previous yard when not beaten far in a 5f nursery at Lingfield (AW) having not had the easiest of trips from the widest draw. Of the two runs earlier this year for her current yard, she was a keeping-on 4th of 6 in a 5f maiden at Kempton, before blowing out over 6f in a handicap at Lingfield in the face of an inefficient trip.
She returns from over nine months off here having to prove that she has trained on, so there is a bit to be taken on trust including fitness, particularly if the surface is riding on the slow side, but she drops into a 0-55 for the first time and Taylor Fisher takes 5lb off, so in the hope that she still might prove better than this grade having been an £80,000 breeze-up purchase, she gets a speculative vote at the odds.
Alice Kitty, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 6.30 Wolverhampton
Alice Kitty doesn't have an especially appealing profile given she ended her time with Jessica Harrington by winning a 9.5f claimer at Ballinrobe (good), and then didn't offer much over hurdles for Denise Foster / Gordon Elliott. However, she had dropped a stone in the handicap from her initial (Irish) mark when running well to finish 4th in a race over 11f at Kempton in September, an effort that probably wanted marking up given how the race panned out. I selected her on her next start at Yarmouth over 10f when she ran alright against 3YO opposition and might have finished a bit closer with a clearer run.
She probably wasn't seen to best effect on her latest start over 10f at Chelmsford having not been best positioned in rear, though did make some late headway. It's hard to be sure what her best trip is and she tries 12f here for just the second time, but she shapes as though she'll stay it and she hasn't had many chances on synthetic surfaces.
There might have been reasons to mark up Lucky Number's run over a mile at Gowran back in May when he finished fourth of 16, after he which he didn't offer much in a run over hurdles then back on the Flat later that month. He was having his third run back form a 5-month break when a fairly obvious eyecatcher at Dundalk last month over 12f, when he didn't get a clear run, in admittedly what was a slowly-run affair that saw many in with a chance up the straight. He found little over that same C/D a week later after making smooth headway into contention.
The step back in trip to a mile today might not be an issue given his previous form at the trip and how he has shaped over 12f recently at this track, however, this is a step up in grade and the market isn't too keen on his chance. So not sure what to expect, but if this is one of his better days and the race pans out well for him, then he might have a frame chance at least.
Alya's Gold Award, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 5.30 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)
Alya's Gold Award had suggested there might be a little race in her when trained by Richard Hughes, including on her final start for her previous yard when not beaten far in a 5f nursery at Lingfield (AW) having not had the easiest of trips from the widest draw. Of the two runs earlier this year for her current yard, she was a keeping-on 4th of 6 in a 5f maiden at Kempton, before blowing out over 6f in a handicap at Lingfield in the face of an inefficient trip.
She returns from over nine months off here having to prove that she has trained on, so there is a bit to be taken on trust including fitness, particularly if the surface is riding on the slow side, but she drops into a 0-55 for the first time and Taylor Fisher takes 5lb off, so in the hope that she still might prove better than this grade having been an £80,000 breeze-up purchase, she gets a speculative vote at the odds.
Alice Kitty, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 6.30 Wolverhampton
Alice Kitty doesn't have an especially appealing profile given she ended her time with Jessica Harrington by winning a 9.5f claimer at Ballinrobe (good), and then didn't offer much over hurdles for Denise Foster / Gordon Elliott. However, she had dropped a stone in the handicap from her initial (Irish) mark when running well to finish 4th in a race over 11f at Kempton in September, an effort that probably wanted marking up given how the race panned out. I selected her on her next start at Yarmouth over 10f when she ran alright against 3YO opposition and might have finished a bit closer with a clearer run.
She probably wasn't seen to best effect on her latest start over 10f at Chelmsford having not been best positioned in rear, though did make some late headway. It's hard to be sure what her best trip is and she tries 12f here for just the second time, but she shapes as though she'll stay it and she hasn't had many chances on synthetic surfaces.
Alya's Gold Award, who looks on the small side, was any price ya liked on her return to action. She got to the front but weakened out of it once headed over a furlong out.
Alice Kitty ran alright to make the frame.
Running P/L: +125.88 pts
Alice Kitty ran alright to make the frame.
Running P/L: +125.88 pts
Methinks, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 12.43 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Methinks has been a selection on the thread a couple of times, including when he was a keeping-on third over 7f at this track in August. He subsequently didn't take to hurdling, and I selected back on the Flat at this track over 7f just four days ago when he offered nothing. It takes a leap of faith to support him again after that, however, interesting to see him out again so soon, and a better draw combined with the step back up in trip to a mile, may help produce a better effort.
Edwina Sheeran, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 1.43 Southwell
Edwina Sheeran also represents the same connections as Methinks. She appears a diminutive filly who might not have much scope for progress, however, there might be a little race in her judged from her penultimate effort over a mile at Redcar (g-f), when she wasn't helped by racing farthest away from the far rail having been drawn on the outer, and in the circumstances ran well to finish third and be one of four to pull clear. Her latest run over that same C/D when finishing down the field can be excused on account of the heavy ground.
She returns from a six-week break here and has to prove her effectiveness on Tapeta, but hopefully she can give a good account if resuming in the form she was in two starts back, and today's race is a slight drop in grade for her.
Many Words, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.45 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)
Many Words is a lowly-rated maiden under both codes who hadn't offered much in three AW handicaps previously over 11/12f, including at this course, but there was more encouragement over 12f here last time when although finishing only 7th of the 11 runners (and behind Sicario who finished third), he was caught wide on the track from some way out but did did keep on okay to be beaten under five lengths. David Probert replaces a 5lb claimer and this step back up to 14f looks worth a try based on that latest evidence.
Methinks has been a selection on the thread a couple of times, including when he was a keeping-on third over 7f at this track in August. He subsequently didn't take to hurdling, and I selected back on the Flat at this track over 7f just four days ago when he offered nothing. It takes a leap of faith to support him again after that, however, interesting to see him out again so soon, and a better draw combined with the step back up in trip to a mile, may help produce a better effort.
Edwina Sheeran, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 1.43 Southwell
Edwina Sheeran also represents the same connections as Methinks. She appears a diminutive filly who might not have much scope for progress, however, there might be a little race in her judged from her penultimate effort over a mile at Redcar (g-f), when she wasn't helped by racing farthest away from the far rail having been drawn on the outer, and in the circumstances ran well to finish third and be one of four to pull clear. Her latest run over that same C/D when finishing down the field can be excused on account of the heavy ground.
She returns from a six-week break here and has to prove her effectiveness on Tapeta, but hopefully she can give a good account if resuming in the form she was in two starts back, and today's race is a slight drop in grade for her.
Many Words, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.45 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)
Many Words is a lowly-rated maiden under both codes who hadn't offered much in three AW handicaps previously over 11/12f, including at this course, but there was more encouragement over 12f here last time when although finishing only 7th of the 11 runners (and behind Sicario who finished third), he was caught wide on the track from some way out but did did keep on okay to be beaten under five lengths. David Probert replaces a 5lb claimer and this step back up to 14f looks worth a try based on that latest evidence.
A good bit off the bottom rung yet….plenty time..
GL with Methinks,George certainly has a bit of form,has drifted in betting,but I won’t be surprised if u get a good run.
Well you stuck with him George...profit assured today, methinks...
Cheers, Jonny went to twirl his whip over a furlong out and dropped it before he had a chance to get after Methinks. Who knows what difference it made but doubt it helped.
Oh well, not that I'm complaining.
Oh well, not that I'm complaining.
Just logged on so a belated well done George. A 50/1 placed horse is still a big achievement.
Thanks for the 66/1 placer George...so this is a free bet with Sky really after making about £20.
Cost £12.40
2 x 50p e/w accs.....10p e/w doubles and 5p e/w trebles.
3 - Ooh Is It @ 3/1
14.13 Southwell - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
2 - Golden Dove @ 9/2
14.43 Southwell - 2 places
1 - The Resdev Way @ 15/2
16.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
6 - Voltaic @ 15/2
15.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
2 - Kim Wexler @ 9/2
17.15 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
1 - Young Fire @ 9/2
17.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
3 - Chookie Dunedin @ 11/2
18.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
2 - Beattie Is Back @ 3/1
18.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
Cost £12.40
2 x 50p e/w accs.....10p e/w doubles and 5p e/w trebles.
3 - Ooh Is It @ 3/1
14.13 Southwell - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
2 - Golden Dove @ 9/2
14.43 Southwell - 2 places
1 - The Resdev Way @ 15/2
16.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
6 - Voltaic @ 15/2
15.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
2 - Kim Wexler @ 9/2
17.15 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
1 - Young Fire @ 9/2
17.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
3 - Chookie Dunedin @ 11/2
18.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
2 - Beattie Is Back @ 3/1
18.45 Wolverhampton - Paying 4 Places instead of 3
Cheers sageform
Tattcorner, well done with the first placer and good luck with the others.
As for my second pick, Edwina Sheeran, I think her brother Ed could have run faster!
She looked a bit rusty on this return from a six-week break, never really travelling having been dropped in from her 9 draw, though did briefly threaten to finish with a flourish before settling for 6th place. I suppose she's entitled to come on for the run.
Tattcorner, well done with the first placer and good luck with the others.
As for my second pick, Edwina Sheeran, I think her brother Ed could have run faster!
She looked a bit rusty on this return from a six-week break, never really travelling having been dropped in from her 9 draw, though did briefly threaten to finish with a flourish before settling for 6th place. I suppose she's entitled to come on for the run.
Cheers Virgin
Unfortunately well wide of the mark with Many Words, who was sent off at odds of 55 on here, and was ridden forward on this step back up in trip, but looked awkward off the bridle around 3f out before folding tamely.
Running P/L: +134.08 pts
Unfortunately well wide of the mark with Many Words, who was sent off at odds of 55 on here, and was ridden forward on this step back up in trip, but looked awkward off the bridle around 3f out before folding tamely.
Running P/L: +134.08 pts
Show Me A Sunset, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 12.50 Lingfield
Show Me A Sunset failed to land a blow last time over 6f at Southwell when perhaps the pace set-up didn't suit and trying to challenge out wide wasn't ideal, but prior to that he had seemed to be finding his form again for his new yard with closing runs from off the pace at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. A lot will depend here on whether he gets a pace to run at, which admittedly isn't assured, but he still looks a little over-priced on this drop back in grade, so a chance is taken at the odds.
Higher Kingdom, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.45 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Higher Kingdom is a risky proposition given he mainly hasn't been in much form this year since transferring to Ireland, and he can miss the break, but he showed when finishing second of 17 over the stretch-mile at Galway in September that he still retains some ability and his mark continues to fall. He was 2-5 on the AW (both wins in novice company) in England and was initially rated in the 80s. He failed to land a blow over 7f on his first start at Dundalk last time having again been slowly away, but this step up to a mile may suit better round here, particularly if better from the gate this time.
Halcyon Spirit, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Halcyon Spirit hasn't had many chances on the AW, and although it was just a claimer over a mile that he finished fourth in last time, it appeared a well run affair and he kept on fairly well having helped force the pace, only losing two places close home. He joined his new connections after that run, and is stepped up in trip to 10.5f and returned to handicap company, with his mark having been dropped 3lb. So with the stable change and having his stamina to prove, a couple of different variables to deal with, but a chance is taken at the odds in the hope he can build on that latest effort.
Show Me A Sunset failed to land a blow last time over 6f at Southwell when perhaps the pace set-up didn't suit and trying to challenge out wide wasn't ideal, but prior to that he had seemed to be finding his form again for his new yard with closing runs from off the pace at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. A lot will depend here on whether he gets a pace to run at, which admittedly isn't assured, but he still looks a little over-priced on this drop back in grade, so a chance is taken at the odds.
Higher Kingdom, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.45 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Higher Kingdom is a risky proposition given he mainly hasn't been in much form this year since transferring to Ireland, and he can miss the break, but he showed when finishing second of 17 over the stretch-mile at Galway in September that he still retains some ability and his mark continues to fall. He was 2-5 on the AW (both wins in novice company) in England and was initially rated in the 80s. He failed to land a blow over 7f on his first start at Dundalk last time having again been slowly away, but this step up to a mile may suit better round here, particularly if better from the gate this time.
Halcyon Spirit, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Halcyon Spirit hasn't had many chances on the AW, and although it was just a claimer over a mile that he finished fourth in last time, it appeared a well run affair and he kept on fairly well having helped force the pace, only losing two places close home. He joined his new connections after that run, and is stepped up in trip to 10.5f and returned to handicap company, with his mark having been dropped 3lb. So with the stable change and having his stamina to prove, a couple of different variables to deal with, but a chance is taken at the odds in the hope he can build on that latest effort.
The market got it right regarding the chance of Show Me A Sunset, who struggled to get out of mid-div.
He has won over 6f, but it could be he's just more effective with the set-up that he faced at Chelmsford three starts back ie closing off a burn-up over 5f. The last twice over 6f, seemingly no good to him, trying to close off moderate / even fractions. So perhaps back at 5f when a strong pace seems likely combined with the application of cash to the betting markets, may be the catalysts for a better effort.
He has won over 6f, but it could be he's just more effective with the set-up that he faced at Chelmsford three starts back ie closing off a burn-up over 5f. The last twice over 6f, seemingly no good to him, trying to close off moderate / even fractions. So perhaps back at 5f when a strong pace seems likely combined with the application of cash to the betting markets, may be the catalysts for a better effort.
Very nice result with the second runner, George 
Good luck with the remaining bet.
Good luck with the remaining bet.
Thanks, Tattcorner. Looks like they got they got their Xmas exes given how it shortened up in the betting close to the off.
The last one is a stablemate of the short-priced fav, so given he went forward last time, he could be on pacemaking duties, but we'll see.
The last one is a stablemate of the short-priced fav, so given he went forward last time, he could be on pacemaking duties, but we'll see.
Cheers, guys.
Form figures in Ireland this year of 00060200090 and SP punters having to make do with 17-2.
They should write to their MPs and complain.
Form figures in Ireland this year of 00060200090 and SP punters having to make do with 17-2.
They should write to their MPs and complain.
With most bookies paying double-result, think I can still claim it?
But obviously a loser in the win market at Betfair SP.
But obviously a loser in the win market at Betfair SP.
Very well done today GB. Hope them pesky stewards don't spoil it.
Sky have paid out anyway, George. Was only messing about with them really...quid e/w on each and managed a 20p double as well..so for around £8 got over £80 back. Well played
Chav will be impressed.
Chav will be impressed.
Never in doubt….TM hanging around
Well done George
Well done George
Thanks again chaps.
A relief to have a good day after a couple of frustrating near misses of late with Benz getting nutted on the line at 33s, and the jockey on Methinks (66s) dropping his whip at the furlong pole.
Running P/L: +180.08 pts
A relief to have a good day after a couple of frustrating near misses of late with Benz getting nutted on the line at 33s, and the jockey on Methinks (66s) dropping his whip at the furlong pole.
Running P/L: +180.08 pts
George up the ladder ...watch out for the snake 
well done and gl ....
up the ladder ...watch out for the snake well done and gl ....
wd George. The 200 point profit is still on! Maso Bastie was my only maiden/novice bet and won at a modest price. It needed a Buick special to get there. I did back Saint George but he shortened up enough for me to lay off before they even entered the stalls.
Super stuff George ....and to think people get paid a fortune in the media for hapless tipping ....this is the only place to look.
top man.
top man.
^As 626 says, Georges writeups wouldn't look out of place in an RP column.
Thanks all for the kind words.
So close to the end of the year now with just 14 days racing left, so the dilemma of whether to press on and try to reach the elusive 200 pts or take a leaf out of Rita's book and go out today on an...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7dUqtYlisU
So close to the end of the year now with just 14 days racing left, so the dilemma of whether to press on and try to reach the elusive 200 pts or take a leaf out of Rita's book and go out today on an...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7dUqtYlisU
Brownlee, 1pt EW @ 15-2, 2.03 Southwell
Brownlee is out again quickly having made a promising nursery debut over 5f at Wolverhampton six days ago, when from the widest draw he didn't appear to be handling the track too well and was caught three-wide but once on an even keel in the straight he stuck to his task quite well to finish a close-up third, finishing four lengths clear of the fourth. It's a concern that he's up sharply in grade here to a 0-76 from a 0-65, but he looks a sizeable sort who would appear open to improvement, so is selected in the hope this doesn't come too soon and he finds this track more suitable.
Fairy Footprints, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.03 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Fairy Footprints was unfortunate to bump into the improving Masqool (whose victory was the middle-leg of a hat-trick) over 8.5f at Wolverhampton three starts back in October, and although no match for the winner, she finished a clear second and had one of today's rivals Selfish Brian (who she meets on 2lb better terms) behind her in fourth. The two runs since over that C/D have been disappointing, and although she might not have had the best of trips on the penultimate start, she should have fared better when I selected her last time when dropped into a 0-53. So she's got a bit to prove all of a sudden, however, she is still of interest on this step up in trip to 11f as she shaped as though she would stay further when finishing runner-up to Masqool.
Brownlee is out again quickly having made a promising nursery debut over 5f at Wolverhampton six days ago, when from the widest draw he didn't appear to be handling the track too well and was caught three-wide but once on an even keel in the straight he stuck to his task quite well to finish a close-up third, finishing four lengths clear of the fourth. It's a concern that he's up sharply in grade here to a 0-76 from a 0-65, but he looks a sizeable sort who would appear open to improvement, so is selected in the hope this doesn't come too soon and he finds this track more suitable.
Fairy Footprints, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.03 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Fairy Footprints was unfortunate to bump into the improving Masqool (whose victory was the middle-leg of a hat-trick) over 8.5f at Wolverhampton three starts back in October, and although no match for the winner, she finished a clear second and had one of today's rivals Selfish Brian (who she meets on 2lb better terms) behind her in fourth. The two runs since over that C/D have been disappointing, and although she might not have had the best of trips on the penultimate start, she should have fared better when I selected her last time when dropped into a 0-53. So she's got a bit to prove all of a sudden, however, she is still of interest on this step up in trip to 11f as she shaped as though she would stay further when finishing runner-up to Masqool.
Boooooom! Thanks George. Brownlee .Absolutely breezed up.
200+ Wd George any of the runner ups would have done the job too 
Wd George any of the runner ups would have done the job too
I've prematured myself .... won't be the first time gl ...
Back on the winning trail George
I'm an idiot...just going to put it in my multiples, thinking I had plenty of time..doh
I'm an idiot...just going to put it in my multiples, thinking I had plenty of time..doh
Thanks for the positive comments.
No joy with the second selection Fairy Footprints, who was quite weak in the betting, and had no excuses given how the race panned out.
Running P/L: +187.08 pts
No joy with the second selection Fairy Footprints, who was quite weak in the betting, and had no excuses given how the race panned out.
Running P/L: +187.08 pts
Well done George….the Irish form student 16/1…..top bombing….
My Boy Jack, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 1.25 Southwell
My Boy Jack has had his chances to lose his maiden tag, but he is of a little interest trying 6f again at this track having suggested it might suit here when twice running well over 7f in August. When he did try 6f here following those two runs, he missed the break and was never involved, so hopefully he can avoid a repeat of that. He has continued to run well in defeat at other AW tracks and hopefully can give another good account back here under Sam Fielden, who is able to claim 7lb in this apprentice race.
Hopeman Harbour, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.10 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Hopeman Harbour looked one to keep onside when winning over a mile at Chelmsford in October. Of his two runs since, he ran respectably when finishing 4th of 15 over a trip (7f) that might have been sharp enough at Yarmouth, and it's possible he needed the run following a 6-week break when not shaping too badly last time over a mile at Kempton.
He is eligible for slightly weaker races than this one, and the blinkers that were worn for his win are missing, so there may be other days for him, particularly in the absence of any market support, but on the plus side, Adam Farragher, who was aboard for the Chelmsford victory, is back in the plate.
Zawahir, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 6.00 Dundalk
Zawahir is a seemingly exposed at this point having had her chances in maidens, but it's possible she may appreciate being back on a sounder surface, having probably shaped better than the bare result on good ground round Tramore in August over 12f when not enjoying the easiest of trips. The three runs since have been on softer ground and she has run okay twice. The potential negative to her chance here is the drop to a mile, but a chance is taken at the odds.
Monsieur Patat, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 8.15 Kempton (4 PLACES)
Monsieur Patat wasn't without market support with Kevin Stott booked when returning from a 4.5 months absence over 6f at this track in October, but he got caught wide and in the circumstances didn't shape too badly in finishing fourth of the twelve runners. His latest run over C/D is easy enough to forgive having been drawn and raced wide.
He is up slightly in grade here, but hopefully he'll have a better trip this time from his draw in six, and he is now 4lb below his last winning mark.
My Boy Jack has had his chances to lose his maiden tag, but he is of a little interest trying 6f again at this track having suggested it might suit here when twice running well over 7f in August. When he did try 6f here following those two runs, he missed the break and was never involved, so hopefully he can avoid a repeat of that. He has continued to run well in defeat at other AW tracks and hopefully can give another good account back here under Sam Fielden, who is able to claim 7lb in this apprentice race.
Hopeman Harbour, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.10 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Hopeman Harbour looked one to keep onside when winning over a mile at Chelmsford in October. Of his two runs since, he ran respectably when finishing 4th of 15 over a trip (7f) that might have been sharp enough at Yarmouth, and it's possible he needed the run following a 6-week break when not shaping too badly last time over a mile at Kempton.
He is eligible for slightly weaker races than this one, and the blinkers that were worn for his win are missing, so there may be other days for him, particularly in the absence of any market support, but on the plus side, Adam Farragher, who was aboard for the Chelmsford victory, is back in the plate.
Zawahir, 1pt EW @ 8-1, 6.00 Dundalk
Zawahir is a seemingly exposed at this point having had her chances in maidens, but it's possible she may appreciate being back on a sounder surface, having probably shaped better than the bare result on good ground round Tramore in August over 12f when not enjoying the easiest of trips. The three runs since have been on softer ground and she has run okay twice. The potential negative to her chance here is the drop to a mile, but a chance is taken at the odds.
Monsieur Patat, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 8.15 Kempton (4 PLACES)
Monsieur Patat wasn't without market support with Kevin Stott booked when returning from a 4.5 months absence over 6f at this track in October, but he got caught wide and in the circumstances didn't shape too badly in finishing fourth of the twelve runners. His latest run over C/D is easy enough to forgive having been drawn and raced wide.
He is up slightly in grade here, but hopefully he'll have a better trip this time from his draw in six, and he is now 4lb below his last winning mark.
My Boy Jack made the frame behind the comfortable winner. 5p Rule 4.
Nothing from Hopeman Harbour. He can drop back in grade, and maybe there'll be a better run when the headgear is back on and there is notable market support for him.
Zawahir wasn't wanted in the betting all day on this return from a two month break and 4f drop back in trip. She failed to trouble the principals but did keep on well for fourth place strongly suggesting she is going to need a longer trip round Dundalk.
Running P/L: +184.24
Nothing from Hopeman Harbour. He can drop back in grade, and maybe there'll be a better run when the headgear is back on and there is notable market support for him.
Zawahir wasn't wanted in the betting all day on this return from a two month break and 4f drop back in trip. She failed to trouble the principals but did keep on well for fourth place strongly suggesting she is going to need a longer trip round Dundalk.
Running P/L: +184.24
Erosion Risk, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.09 Wolverhampton
Erosion Risk ran a couple of good races back in June, when finishing third at Chester (good) in a race where a new 2YO 5f course record was set, and then just two days later at Windsor (5f, g-f) when finishing second to one who subsequently ran well in the Newbury Super Sprint from a poor draw. He then wasn't seen again for over four months and when he returned in early November at Wolverhampton (5f) he was easy enough to back, and folded tamely having disputed the lead, in a race where one of today's rivals Great State was making his debut and finished third. Erosion Risk finished last of 8 on his latest run in a 5f nursery at Chelmsford, but there was some encouragement in that run in what probably was a good race, given the winner Michaela's Boy is a sharp improver and the second Rocking Ends has since won a Southwell nursery comfortably.
He has been a big drifter in the betting this morning on his return to novice company, which has to be a concern, but as that latest keeping on effort suggested today's step back up in trip to 6f may suit, he's gets a risky EW vote, with the betting currently screaming there will be other days for him.
Erosion Risk ran a couple of good races back in June, when finishing third at Chester (good) in a race where a new 2YO 5f course record was set, and then just two days later at Windsor (5f, g-f) when finishing second to one who subsequently ran well in the Newbury Super Sprint from a poor draw. He then wasn't seen again for over four months and when he returned in early November at Wolverhampton (5f) he was easy enough to back, and folded tamely having disputed the lead, in a race where one of today's rivals Great State was making his debut and finished third. Erosion Risk finished last of 8 on his latest run in a 5f nursery at Chelmsford, but there was some encouragement in that run in what probably was a good race, given the winner Michaela's Boy is a sharp improver and the second Rocking Ends has since won a Southwell nursery comfortably.
He has been a big drifter in the betting this morning on his return to novice company, which has to be a concern, but as that latest keeping on effort suggested today's step back up in trip to 6f may suit, he's gets a risky EW vote, with the betting currently screaming there will be other days for him.
Well done George, ran well only beaten by the favourite. Looks like its got a win in it in the near future.
Great stuff once again...nearly at the peak profit on this thread back in the autumn..definitely heading for 200 mark afore the bells!
Cheers, the numbers seven, Virgin & lead on.
The market vibes were terrible all day, even when the fancied Great State came out and up until the off, but it just goes to show, we shouldn't always be worshiping at the altar of the betting market!
25p Rule 4.
Running P/L: +188.19
The market vibes were terrible all day, even when the fancied Great State came out and up until the off, but it just goes to show, we shouldn't always be worshiping at the altar of the betting market!
25p Rule 4.
Running P/L: +188.19
Yimou, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.10 Southwell
Yimou has been a selection twice before on the thread following an effort that probably wanted marking up over 5f at Chelmsford in September. A bit of a mixed bag in three runs since at that track, but better last time when finishing his race off on the front foot to finish second, when ridden for the first time by Cieren Fallon, who retains the ride here. He has to prove his effectiveness on this track and surface, but it's encouraging that his four career wins on turf were on straight courses.
First Charge, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 1.43 Southwell (4 PLACES)
First Charge made an encouraging return from over five months off when finishing fourth at Kempton (two miles) three weeks ago, and although he finished behind a couple of today's rivals, he might just have needed the run and he challenged close to the inside rail and away from where the action unfolded. His three AW wins have come at around two miles, so it's a query whether today's 14f trip is ideal, but on the plus side he's 3lb below his last winning mark and Billy Loughnane takes off 7lb.
Alexander James, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 2.13 Southwell
Alexander James is another who made an encouraging return to the AW when not beaten far into 5th place in a 10f, 0-102 Class 2 handicap at Chelmsford last month. Better might have been expected on the back of that effort last time at Wolverhampton (9.5f) when finishing down the field and behind a couple of today's rivals, so he has a bit to prove after that. However, today is a further drop in grade for him and he's now 2lb below his last winning mark, while the return to a mile shouldn't be an issue. His only previous start over C/D saw him win a novice by 13 lengths on the old Fibresand surface. Cheekpieces, worn a couple of times without success when trained in France, are reapplied.
Yimou has been a selection twice before on the thread following an effort that probably wanted marking up over 5f at Chelmsford in September. A bit of a mixed bag in three runs since at that track, but better last time when finishing his race off on the front foot to finish second, when ridden for the first time by Cieren Fallon, who retains the ride here. He has to prove his effectiveness on this track and surface, but it's encouraging that his four career wins on turf were on straight courses.
First Charge, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 1.43 Southwell (4 PLACES)
First Charge made an encouraging return from over five months off when finishing fourth at Kempton (two miles) three weeks ago, and although he finished behind a couple of today's rivals, he might just have needed the run and he challenged close to the inside rail and away from where the action unfolded. His three AW wins have come at around two miles, so it's a query whether today's 14f trip is ideal, but on the plus side he's 3lb below his last winning mark and Billy Loughnane takes off 7lb.
Alexander James, 1pt EW @ 13-2, 2.13 Southwell
Alexander James is another who made an encouraging return to the AW when not beaten far into 5th place in a 10f, 0-102 Class 2 handicap at Chelmsford last month. Better might have been expected on the back of that effort last time at Wolverhampton (9.5f) when finishing down the field and behind a couple of today's rivals, so he has a bit to prove after that. However, today is a further drop in grade for him and he's now 2lb below his last winning mark, while the return to a mile shouldn't be an issue. His only previous start over C/D saw him win a novice by 13 lengths on the old Fibresand surface. Cheekpieces, worn a couple of times without success when trained in France, are reapplied.
Yimou, who was sent off at 45-1 on here, lost whatever place chance he had when squeezed out between rivals over a furlong out. He did keep on after without threatening. Maybe this track is sharp enough for him, and he's eligible for weaker races.
A dismal run from First Charge, who was slowly away, dropped in, and struggling from 4f out.
A better run from Alexander James on this drop in grade, finding only a gambled-on (33s to 16s) stable switcher too good.
3.4 pts lost on the day.
Running P/L: +184.79
A dismal run from First Charge, who was slowly away, dropped in, and struggling from 4f out.
A better run from Alexander James on this drop in grade, finding only a gambled-on (33s to 16s) stable switcher too good.
3.4 pts lost on the day.
Running P/L: +184.79
formoftheace, the thread ends December 31st at the latest, so I'll keep throwing the darts to try and hit the 200 mark with 8 racing days left, but it's looking at this late stage that I'm going to come up short.
A better run from Alexander James on this drop in grade, finding only a gambled-on (33s to 16s) stable switcher too good.
14/1
14/1
Following the race, Billy Loughnane reported that FIRST CHARGE (IRE), unplaced, was slowly away and was never travelling; the Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination found the gelding to be lame left-fore...
gl George
gl George
Thank you PHS & Virgin
Always good to have an excuse when they've dropped out the back of the telly
Always good to have an excuse when they've dropped out the back of the telly
Just a few half-fancies today that aren't filling me with too much confidence, so a day off for the thread. A couple of competitive looking Flat cards tomorrow, followed by just the one scheduled AW meeting a day for the remainder of the year when racing resumes on Boxing Day.
Only halfway through the Wolves picks and have to agree 
....
....
Sweet Fantasy, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 2.20 Lingfield
Sweet Fantasy ultimately won with some authority when stepped back up in trip to 12f and wearing first-time cheekpieces at Southwell 16 days ago, so this drop back in trip to 10f at this track is a bit of a concern, particularly as she had gone down narrowly over this C/D on her penultimate start to one of today's rivals Tahasun. However, she hasn't had many chances on the AW and the way she went through the race last time when she raced freely early on, suggested she will be fine back at this trip so long as it isn't run at a crawl. This is quite a step up in grade to a class 2 from a class 5, but there are only four above her in the handicap.
Suffrajet, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 6.00 Southwell
Suffrajet didn't face an easy task on her belated reappearance in September over 12f at Ascot (good), when having to carry a 6lb penalty against male opposition from top yards, and in the circumstances it was a creditable effort to finish third. The form received a boost when the fourth (who admittedly might have needed the experience) won on his second start. Suffrajet did win on soft ground as a 2YO, so it was disappointing that she then ran poorly on her next start on similar going over 12f at Catterick.
I selected her last time out over 12f at Lingfield when she was noticeably weak in the betting on her return from a 6-week break, and in what was a slowly-run race, she was arguably well positioned on the front end when the kick for home started off the home bend, but she had to settle for fourth place. So she does have a bit to prove now, and she is eligible for weaker races than this one, but she's given another chance in the hope a more evenly run race shows her in a better light.
Sweet Fantasy ultimately won with some authority when stepped back up in trip to 12f and wearing first-time cheekpieces at Southwell 16 days ago, so this drop back in trip to 10f at this track is a bit of a concern, particularly as she had gone down narrowly over this C/D on her penultimate start to one of today's rivals Tahasun. However, she hasn't had many chances on the AW and the way she went through the race last time when she raced freely early on, suggested she will be fine back at this trip so long as it isn't run at a crawl. This is quite a step up in grade to a class 2 from a class 5, but there are only four above her in the handicap.
Suffrajet, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 6.00 Southwell
Suffrajet didn't face an easy task on her belated reappearance in September over 12f at Ascot (good), when having to carry a 6lb penalty against male opposition from top yards, and in the circumstances it was a creditable effort to finish third. The form received a boost when the fourth (who admittedly might have needed the experience) won on his second start. Suffrajet did win on soft ground as a 2YO, so it was disappointing that she then ran poorly on her next start on similar going over 12f at Catterick.
I selected her last time out over 12f at Lingfield when she was noticeably weak in the betting on her return from a 6-week break, and in what was a slowly-run race, she was arguably well positioned on the front end when the kick for home started off the home bend, but she had to settle for fourth place. So she does have a bit to prove now, and she is eligible for weaker races than this one, but she's given another chance in the hope a more evenly run race shows her in a better light.
GL George
Well done for coming back from a miserly +122pts
Well done for coming back from a miserly +122pts
Cheers DG.
Yeah, a shocking run, wasn't it, and in danger of heading back under 100 pts too. Oh well, hopefully the thread can end on the front foot.
Good luck with yours today.
I had actually intended to select Havana Goldrush, having marked up a run of his at Chelmsford, and put the poor run three days back down to a wide trip, but having watched it back this morning, and considering that was off a two month break, I couldn't put it down to just a wide trip.
But there was money for him and he's out again quickly, so who knows, maybe just had an off day.
Yeah, a shocking run, wasn't it, and in danger of heading back under 100 pts too. Oh well, hopefully the thread can end on the front foot.
Good luck with yours today.
I had actually intended to select Havana Goldrush, having marked up a run of his at Chelmsford, and put the poor run three days back down to a wide trip, but having watched it back this morning, and considering that was off a two month break, I couldn't put it down to just a wide trip.
But there was money for him and he's out again quickly, so who knows, maybe just had an off day.
I've got the last run down as a pipe-opener!! Trainer is a master at bringing them back quickly after a poor run.
A couple of 4th places.
Sweet Fantasy set the fractions but had no chance with the winner who cruised past, and then it made for painful viewing as she lost two paces close home.
They took a lead this time on Suffrajet, who didn't have the speed to challenge, and could only keep on at the one pace.
Running P/L: +180.79
Sweet Fantasy set the fractions but had no chance with the winner who cruised past, and then it made for painful viewing as she lost two paces close home.
They took a lead this time on Suffrajet, who didn't have the speed to challenge, and could only keep on at the one pace.
Running P/L: +180.79
Ta Virgin, and Merry Xmas.
One firm offered 4 places on both races, and Nicky's mates offered 4 places for just the first one.
One firm offered 4 places on both races, and Nicky's mates offered 4 places for just the first one.
They did George ...I put them in an e/w treble with Threeunderfive in the Welsh National .
Only Benz being pipped on the line stopping the thread from having sailed well over the 200 Pts ......top tipping , top man....
Only Benz being pipped on the line stopping the thread from having sailed well over the 200 Pts ......top tipping , top man....
Good luck with Threeunderfive, sixtwosix
Benz was a tough one to take, especially with the winner finding a gap up the rail that didn't seem to exist, but hey, that's racing.
Tbf there were probably a couple of those close calls went my way, even if I can't remember which ones!
Benz was a tough one to take, especially with the winner finding a gap up the rail that didn't seem to exist, but hey, that's racing.
Tbf there were probably a couple of those close calls went my way, even if I can't remember which ones!
Happy Christmas George, well done on a very good profit achieved. Have been on a few of those winners and in fact had £2 e/w double on yesterday's selections, although others of mine didn't perform well on the day.
Merry Xmas Tattcorner & to all the readers of this thread.
I've decided to call time on the thread with just a few AW meetings remaining this year.
Summary
The thread commenced on June 26th and got off to a slow start reaching a loss of 24 pts on July 11th. Things gradually improved and one of the thread highlights came on July 21st when there were three winners and a place from four selections - Dance In The Grass 9-2, Dual Identity 15-2 & Felix Natalis 5-1, with Sovereignty 33-1 (who traded odds-on in the run) making the frame.
It still took until mid-September for the thread to reach 100 pts profit, and then relatively quickly reached its peak in early October with a profit of 190 pts.
However, when the ground turned from about the second week in October, the thread's fortunes took a turn for the worse and I failed to select a single winner on soft / heavy ground for the remainder of the turf season, and that loss of form continued into the AW season with thread's profit falling back into the 120s.
Thankfully, there was a recovery this month, thanks largely to finding two 20-1 John McConnell-trained winners on the same card at Dundalk.
The thread ends with a profit at the early prices / B.O.G of 180 pts.
The profit at Betfair SP after a deduction of 2% commission to winning bets, is 94 pts.
I've decided to call time on the thread with just a few AW meetings remaining this year.
Summary
The thread commenced on June 26th and got off to a slow start reaching a loss of 24 pts on July 11th. Things gradually improved and one of the thread highlights came on July 21st when there were three winners and a place from four selections - Dance In The Grass 9-2, Dual Identity 15-2 & Felix Natalis 5-1, with Sovereignty 33-1 (who traded odds-on in the run) making the frame.
It still took until mid-September for the thread to reach 100 pts profit, and then relatively quickly reached its peak in early October with a profit of 190 pts.
However, when the ground turned from about the second week in October, the thread's fortunes took a turn for the worse and I failed to select a single winner on soft / heavy ground for the remainder of the turf season, and that loss of form continued into the AW season with thread's profit falling back into the 120s.
Thankfully, there was a recovery this month, thanks largely to finding two 20-1 John McConnell-trained winners on the same card at Dundalk.
The thread ends with a profit at the early prices / B.O.G of 180 pts.
The profit at Betfair SP after a deduction of 2% commission to winning bets, is 94 pts.
Well done George. I would never have thought that Betfair SP would only have returned about half the early prices /BOG . Shows the importance of BOG.
I'd be interested to know what 2 pts win only would have shown.
I'd be interested to know what 2 pts win only would have shown.
WD George, a great effort. I hope someone has got you a new Black N Red book for xmas!
WD GB
Merry xmas to you too
Been a rollacoaster but class will out as they say
Another good year
Merry xmas to you too
Been a rollacoaster but class will out as they say
Another good year
VWD George, an impressive return in 6 months, all documented
brilliant tipping and very educational with the reasoning...I can't think of any other tipping service,either free or paid for which would have done as well and so consistently...just surprised lara has not appeared with a"well done,Sir George"..Looking forward to the next one already,cheers.
Been great fun George, look forward to next year.
Cheers guys, thanks for the positive comments.
If I'm feeling crazy enough to do another of these next year, I'll set a target, and IF I get there, I'll quit when ahead!
If I'm feeling crazy enough to do another of these next year, I'll set a target, and IF I get there, I'll quit when ahead!
WD GEORGE
great results and figures over the year.
Merry Christmas!
great results and figures over the year.
Merry Christmas!
Why, thank you, chav, that's most kind of you. Merry Christmas!
I just want to say a special thanks to chav, for his words of support and encouragement to me, through thick and thin on this thread. Cheers, mate!
chavman 07 Jul 22 22:12
man the lifeboats
chavman 10 Jul 22 01:06
The Bismarck only took 2 hours to sink George,take solace in you’ve lasted nearly 3 weeks
chavman 14 Jul 22 14:24
Thread going well.send more money.
chavman 25 Jul 22 16:04
you seem to be the antedote to winning george
chavman 11 Aug 22 10:48
A belated well done George although Aristotle once said-
One swallow makes no summer,nor does one day
chavman 30 Aug 22 13:01
shabby
chavman 03 Sep 22 20:38
barney took winning and losing the same,you could maybe learn something from that george
chavman 03 Sep 22 20:42
whilst your research and diligence are second to none ,your temperament seems fragile
chavman 03 Sep 22 21:00
youve had 2 good weeks and 6 average prior
chavman 03 Sep 22 21:29
from small acorns do great oak trees grow....thats how hari krishna started
chavman 24 Sep 22 20:57
George,in the inimitable words of nick berry....every loser wins
chavman 09 Oct 22 12:54
George,you got outperformed yesterday by some geezer who sticks things up his bum to select horses.now thats not good mate is it tbf.
chavman 09 Oct 22 13:34
Bum geezer 1 George.B 0
chavman 09 Oct 22 17:25
use beads imo
chavman 26 Oct 22 22:35
Definitely a bit of the David Brent about you
chavman 29 Oct 22 22:19
Indeed dealer,much like marts headlights,the light brigade and the Scottish bid for independence
chavman 08 Nov 22 21:36
picking market movers poor form imo
chavman 09 Dec 22 20:47
titanic,bismark,graf spee...need i go on george
chavman 11 Dec 22 10:44
Franz Klammer
chavman 11 Dec 22 11:01
and solace from today being your best for a while mate
I just want to say a special thanks to chav, for his words of support and encouragement to me, through thick and thin on this thread. Cheers, mate!
chavman 07 Jul 22 22:12
man the lifeboats
chavman 10 Jul 22 01:06
The Bismarck only took 2 hours to sink George,take solace in you’ve lasted nearly 3 weeks
chavman 14 Jul 22 14:24
Thread going well.send more money.
chavman 25 Jul 22 16:04
you seem to be the antedote to winning george
chavman 11 Aug 22 10:48
A belated well done George although Aristotle once said-
One swallow makes no summer,nor does one day
chavman 30 Aug 22 13:01
shabby
chavman 03 Sep 22 20:38
barney took winning and losing the same,you could maybe learn something from that george
chavman 03 Sep 22 20:42
whilst your research and diligence are second to none ,your temperament seems fragile
chavman 03 Sep 22 21:00
youve had 2 good weeks and 6 average prior
chavman 03 Sep 22 21:29
from small acorns do great oak trees grow....thats how hari krishna started
chavman 24 Sep 22 20:57
George,in the inimitable words of nick berry....every loser wins
chavman 09 Oct 22 12:54
George,you got outperformed yesterday by some geezer who sticks things up his bum to select horses.now thats not good mate is it tbf.
chavman 09 Oct 22 13:34
Bum geezer 1 George.B 0
chavman 09 Oct 22 17:25
use beads imo
chavman 26 Oct 22 22:35
Definitely a bit of the David Brent about you
chavman 29 Oct 22 22:19
Indeed dealer,much like marts headlights,the light brigade and the Scottish bid for independence
chavman 08 Nov 22 21:36
picking market movers poor form imo
chavman 09 Dec 22 20:47
titanic,bismark,graf spee...need i go on george
chavman 11 Dec 22 10:44
Franz Klammer
chavman 11 Dec 22 11:01
and solace from today being your best for a while mate
its a bit like a Christmas Edition of our finest moments.
#pseuds corner
#pseuds corner
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