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Trendy
09 Apr 22 17:47
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 02
| Topic/replies: 1,140 | Blogger: Trendy's blog
First horse i discounted.

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Replies: 16
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 09 Apr 22 17:50
Only 82 years later
Laugh
By:
bluebook
When: 09 Apr 22 18:30
I usually take a trends approach when trying to narrow down the National field. Silly not to, otherwise you're looking to find a winner from 40 runners. Hardly likely... .

Still, when I woke this morning, I was suddenly struck by the thought that the most important GN trend since 2015 is how so many of the recent winners have been bucking those previously cast-iron trends. As such, this year, I was almost tempted to look for a horse who didn't pass them ! Still couldn't bring myself to do so and thus had four losing bets... .

If you'd given me a further week to look at that field, I would never have plumped for the eventual winner.
By:
strontium
When: 09 Apr 22 18:44
Only 7 previous chase runs and only previously won a chase over 18 f - mega stats buster.
By:
bluebook
When: 09 Apr 22 23:15
Quite so.
By:
bluebook
When: 09 Apr 22 23:17
Probably not since there was a major European war.

Oh, hang on... .
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 10 Apr 22 13:32
Shocked
By:
slickster
When: 10 Apr 22 19:03
Have the tests come back yet on both horse and trainer? What sort of turnips carrots parsnips beetroot and cooking apples have they been consuming? Take out the 2nd and he wins by 20 lengths lol. Its akin to a 2 year old winning the Derby. IMPOSSIBLE.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 10 Apr 22 21:37
Must have been on spice,no previous form to indicate that type of performance
By:
thelatarps
When: 10 Apr 22 23:33
All I can think in explanation of this result is that SWC with the pressure off gave Nob Yts a relaxed ride, avoiding the pile ups which others suffered.
Cant help but thinking that had one of Walsh or McCoy been on the second they wouldnt have been beaten.
Come to that would have backed Blackmore to get by him as well. Probably Townend too and Russell.
By:
cloone river
When: 11 Apr 22 00:29
You are wrong about the horse who came second.Mark Walsh is top class and way under rated.
By:
ladycarla
When: 11 Apr 22 09:02
Only 5 lengths behind Ahoy Senor at Wetherby in february.
By:
ladycarla
When: 11 Apr 22 09:05
And in front of 5th in Scottish National so disagree that there were no form previous.
By:
GoBallistic
When: 11 Apr 22 09:42
4 runner novice chases are the best trials for the National now that the fences are made of cotton wool
By:
mrcombustible
When: 11 Apr 22 10:07
Trends are now irrelevant as the race has changed so much in recent years
By:
Ramruma
When: 11 Apr 22 10:35
Actually, as Chris Cook points out, 7-year-old winners used to be commonplace if you go back far enough.

The previous 7-year-old winner was Bogskar but imagine doing a trends analysis on Grand National morning, 1940.

Year Winner Age Weight Jockey SP Time
1929 Gregalach 7 11-04 Robert W H Everett 100/1 9m 47.4s
1930 Shaun Goilin 10 11-07 Tommy Cullinan 100/8 9m 40.6s
1931 Grakle 9 11-07 Bob Lyall 100/6 9m 32.8s
1932 Forbra 7 10-07 Tim Hamey 50/1 9m 44.6s
1933 Kellsboro' Jack 7 11-09 Dudley Williams 25/1 9m 28.0s
1934 Golden Miller 7 12-02 Gerry Wilson 8/1 9m 20.4s
1935 Reynoldstown 8 11-04 Mr Frank Furlong 22/1 9m 20.2s
1936 Reynoldstown 9 12-02 Mr Fulke Walwyn 10/1 9m 37.8s
1937 Royal Mail 8 11-13 Evan Williams 100/6 9m 59.8s
1938 Battleship 11 11-06 Bruce Hobbs 40/1 9m 27.0s
1939 Workman 9 10-06 Tim Hyde 100/8 9m 42.2s
1940 Bogskar 7 10-04 Mervyn Jones 25/1 9m 20.6s


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Grand_National_winners
By:
thurnscoe thunder
When: 11 Apr 22 14:08
Its really baffled me as to why we are all surprised that a 7yo novice has won the Grand National.
In all honesty the only negative I can actually see is there may be more fallers around the horse than would be normal in a race.

Seasoned handicappers have and will find it more difficult I believe to win the race now.
The fact theyve compressed the handicap will now always mean these horses are going to be running within a few pounds of a Graded performer.
The only advantage I can see them having is that they may be outright stayers, but even then they wont always be able to go the quicker pace, and will always have to come through the field, giving the opportunity of just falling by the wayside and being tailed off.
Too quick early and theyll blow up.

The first thing everyone was looking for the week before was an unexposed type in the Scottish National, ideally a 1st season novice chaser.
You also only have to look at Kittys Light last year in the B365 Gold Cup, a 5yo novice.
In all honesty whats the real difference now the fences have been modified to the Scottish National, in hindsight im actually surprised more havent done it, the only draw backs I can see is firstly being qualified and having a rating of 145+, and the connections not thinking about the likes of the Hennessy the following November, which they all seem to do with these types, then by the time the National comes round their marks are blown.
It leaves you looking for a Rathvinden type of horse, unexposed in handicaps and has a touch of relative class racing off 11 stone or so, because should it jump and stay the handicappers are so exposed they cant touch him.

Probably the best jumping performance I have seen recently was Cloth Cap in the Scottish National he never touched a twig, and only had 3 runs, just wouldnt have got in off its mark.

Theyre not seasoned handicappers and theyre only going to improve for racing, its certainly within the realms of probability upto a stone could be found once it clicks or the weather changes.
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