28/1 on here Noble ****

Has this happened before

Quite extraordinary, and such a huge disparity.

Once or twice but very rare.

On the nanny Sparrow it returned £52.47 win and £12.98 the place.

But the market is what it is, as they say, slippy.

This place is the home of those in the know.

You should look at greyhound markets....many 2nd and 3rd favs are sent of fav on here in the past week. I backed Noble **** Bfsp.....when I saw 50 come up, I was shocked to see such a poor return

it was 19 to place and 29 to win.

It happens about once in about 100 races on Horse Racing.

Ghetto Joe 09 Apr 22 17:58 
Years gone by they'd be loads of peole moaning about that deflated price, these days hardly anyone notices. Just shows how far Betfair has fallen, doubt many of those once a year punters will be flocking to use Betfair again and doubt we'll see this price highlighted in their adverts.





Once in a year punters have no idea about the exchange let alone use it.

Seems an alarming disparity in the price ... stewards enquiry shirley!

Don't they do bookmaker offer in the rags anymore, sparrow? The bookies always used to tempt the mugs punters with free bets during the National meeting, guess the day's of Betfair tempting people to the exchange are long gone.

Didn't this happen in the Grand National the first year of Betfair SP? Most of the field was a vastly shorter price, and Betfair dipped into their pockets to make up the shortfall, owing to the bad publicity.

It did happen in the National before screaming, but more recent than that.

one for us spotinlife value backers put up last night at 50,s by matt brocklebank

Guys its a 100% book on betfair. Industry sp is very rarely better

Sometimes i think you are all russian plants from the boomakers

I spent a whole hour trying to maximise the bet365 offr earlier. Every price was at least two points worse than betfair.

Bookmakers are crooks. They just take betfair prices and apply a margin. Its a disgrace

ACCA freedom. Build you bet or play my online casino

Three runners out of 40 were worse than SP. Guess some wealthy guy put a lump on the winner at BSP.

Does anyone know the last price matched before in play ?

Crikey that is a shocking return .....bet we don't see that in any release about great the returns are......

look on the on-course boys faces when they realised they'd just laid a 28/1 shot at 50's ....

lol

I had €2.50 each way at 70 for the wife. Couldn't believe the sp price. Is there any way to find out the each way starting price as it looked like it was about 60 or 65 on the graph after the race when I checked.

When Sir Mark Noble **** was trading 65/70 there was £4k asking for 75, 80 and 85 in the boxes. I truly hope the bookies have been battered by Sir Mark Noble ****

PAULYD08

There is NO Betfair SP Market "Each-Way Starting Price"/Option  - in the Betfair "Each-Way Market".

My thread did not last long!!   All I asked was why can't I say the name of the Grand National winner Noble **** (Y E A T S) or the name of its sire **** (Y E A T S). I guess I cant post the name of that great Liverpool Centrehalf Ron **** or the great poet William Butler ****. This has to be stupid doesn't, whatever the rationale for it.

There has to be something wrong, was anyone watching the horse's price just before the off? The SP back money is not particularly large given the liquidity of the race.

3k bet at bsp took everything down to 29

CustomCut 09 Apr 22 20:24 

There has to be something wrong......
------------

Why? ...... - DIFFERENT GRAVY 12 has just given you the Answer.

The "horse's price just before the off" - (in the MAIN MARKET) - is Irrelevant ....

- as the Betfair SP Market - is an entirely DIFFERENT Market.

The Betfair SP market is not an entirely different market. It's a mixture of what is available to back and lay in the SP market combined with what is available to back and lay in the main market at suspension.

The odds are calculated by matching SP backers and Exchange backers against SP layers and Exchange layers. The inclusion of Exchange bets in the SP reconciliation is necessary to ensure that: SP backers get the benefit of unmatched Exchange offers to lay if those offers could increase the SP; and SP layers get the benefit of unmatched Exchange offers to back if those offers could reduce the SP. Including unmatched Exchange offers in the SP reconciliation also ensures that the bets of Exchange backers and layers, which would otherwise lapse, are matched where possible.

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_SPrules.html#:~:text=Betfair's%20Starting%20Price%20('SP',once%20it%20has%20been%20placed.

> Does anyone know the last price matched before in play ?

At the off, you could back Noble **** for £101 at 60s. As soon as the BFSPs had been accounted for, it was backed down to 5.1 and was (for an instant) the fav !!!!

Lowest prices matched at the off (after BFSP) on Noble ****:

Noble ****    5.1 £ 1281.32      6 £  100.00    6.2 £   60.00    6.4 £   16.60

did anyone else experience a glitch at the beginning of the race where the market suspended but didn't go in play for a good few secs?

I think it was suspended for about 10-12 seconds, elise

Every horse had large amounts matched at BFSP. I place all my bets at BFSP and I've never seen anything like this. I'm not even certain the 89k laid at SP was even above average for the race.

Does anyone know what **** XSP was for the winner?

A speculative guess...

Zelco & syndicate withdrew from market making betfair horse racing (& other markets) 2-3 years ago in favour of their investment in another exchange.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is a contributing factor to the larger SP/BFSP discrepancies when 'smart' money backs/lays at BFSP.

(I can't remember the name of) the scandi outfit that have also made the market since early 2000's are more accountant based risk averse than Z so not going to offer all the money at near pre off prices and tend to spread it thinly over a wider odds range, hence larger moves as BFSP is 'resolved'

Interesting to see if the "authorities" offer any explanation as to how there was such a big discrepancy between what the horse was trading before the off and what was returned as the Betfair SP .

There is always the let out of blaming computer glitch .

Remember the hiatus in the Leopardstown race many years ago . Nothing was ever admitted about that .

Guarantee there will be no crowing about the benefit of betting at Betfair SP .

There's no 'computer glitch' here with the SPs. Betfair's systems were working as intended. Someone just placed a huge bet at BFSP on Noble Y eats. At the off, this gets matched against all the outstanding offers, taking lower and lower prices until the order is filled. If there isn't much liquidity on the market, the SP will be very low as a result.

You can see the BF estimates for the SPs if you tick the boxes in the settings. Unfortunately I don't have records of the BFSP bets - I wonder when the bet was placed, was the SP estimate showing very low odds for a long time before the off?

Unlikely, Mr Magoo. If it had been showing a very low BSP estimate, the bots would surely have seized on it to lay it. It must have been a very-last-second bet.

But I admit I'm only guessing here.

One thing I will say - there are plenty of Betfair SPs which favour the backer rather than the layer. There was a 2-horse race at Newcastle a couple of months or so ago where the BSPs were something like 2.04 and 2.08.

I guess the layers therefore deserve the occasional one in their favour, such as Noble Ye@ts.

(Having said that, the thing still went and won, so they did their money anyway; just not as much as they expected.)

eclair gone this morning thats 2 dead with disco despite itv/racing tv banging on about all horse vreturning to stables safe and  sound,as long as you dont die on track everythings ok it seems

of course the smaller you make the jumps the more owners tempted to run,you wouldnt have dreamt of running eclair surf in national 20 yrs ago with his jumping

they had'nt up to now,what ITV supossed to say then?

Mr Magoo - here's no 'computer glitch' here with the SPs. Betfair's systems were working as intended. Someone just placed a huge bet at BFSP on Noble Y eats. At the off, this gets matched against all the outstanding offers, taking lower and lower prices until the order is filled. If there isn't much liquidity on the market, the SP will be very low as a result.

I don't really understand this explanation. I mean if I was backing Noble Yea($ I wouldn't have been asking for a price that low, in any circumstances, and I don't believe real people would have chased the price down like that. So who was taking lower and lower prices, without checking bookmaker prices? Bots?

Its not about "people" taking lower and lower prices, as I said earlier there was a 3k bet left at bsp. This would take all the prices down until the 3k is matched at whatever price, in this case to 29. somthing.

The 3k bet was too big to accomodate the liquidity available, the backer was either unaware this would happen or wasnt bothered!

So somebody has offered lays at all prices down to 29.0 on the assumption it would be possible to back at higher prices with the bookmakers?

Seems a bit implausible to me, as that strategy would hardly ever work with the Grand National Market where prices on the exchange get higher compared to the bookmaker market the nearer one gets to off time.

You are totally missing the point!!

I'm out

I agree with DIFERENT GRAVY.

Very helpful, I appreciate I must be being a bit dense about this

The point I am missing is... the exchange has to find a way of providing a BSP so just keeps lowering the price until it can?

It's not that people were asking for a low price, they were offering it. If that lower price was better than the 'raw' bfsp market, sp backers will benefit from those offers.

In this case, yes. In other cases it just keeps extending the price until the SP is resolved. Depends which side the money is on in the SP market.

wonder if someone had a big position  cashed out by accident somehow,

iirc under the old system, you could get unmatched offers cancelled at the start which were better than the returned bfsp. so now those offers will get filled in if they beat the base bfsp calculation. it's weighted to benefit backers, which is fair enough I guess.

screaming from beneaththewaves 10 Apr 22 09:53

Unlikely, Mr Magoo. If it had been showing a very low BSP estimate, the bots would surely have seized on it to lay it. It must have been a very-last-second bet.

But I admit I'm only guessing here.
-------------

screaming from -

Another possibility is that the 'Lump' on Winner Noble Y - was placed in the Main Market (at REQUESTED far Higher Odds, of course)  - But - With the
Take SP' OPTION Selected

When the Race was 'OFF' - Then the 'Lump' had to be TRANSFERRED into the Betfair SP Market - via the, aforementioned, 'SP Reconciliation' Process - Thus resulting in the Low SP - and with there being a Far Greater Amount of Money 9fromm ALL runners) having t be Transferred/Reconciled that could explain the earlier mooted Longer 'Suspended' at the Start

Was that a hedge and the 3k backer is in a 66k and comm hole against isp?

Only weird thing that comes to mind for me would be a prerace trader on a large lay to back using a 'Take BSP' option if not matched as a getout. Maybe he lost his internet connection a few minutes before the off, it happens. Also if he follows trends of market moves for certain trainers, some of Emmets horses have been known to take extremely large late drifts...

I see what you mean now, onlooker.

Yes. That makes excellent sense.

On the other hand ... Wouldn't a lumpy 'Take SP' option on a bet in the main market also affect the likely SP as shown in the pre-race price info?

But I admit, I'm guessing once again.

If that was the case the "Projected Betfair Starting Price" would be complete rubbish and could be anything.
Also that would be open to manipulation by anyone who knows that info.
Would make you wonder who could benefit from this ?

Projected SP - which indicates what the SP would be if the market were to suspend now, this is also known as the 'Near Price' calculation.
...

The Near Price is calculated using all of the available money on the site at SP as well as matching money on the same selection in the Exchange.

https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_projectedOdds.html
__________________

I can't see anywhere on that page an explanation of how 'Take SP' bets in the main Exchange market are accounted for in calculating the projected SP.
That's not to say that the explanation isn't in fact there, and it might just that my brain isn't big enough to grasp it.

But on the face of it, there might - might - be scope to manipulate the projected SP via cancelling a Take SP bet at the last moment.

Agree with your Post - screaming -

Doubt that Ell's suggestion is a Possible scenario.

Why? - well - For the 'Projected SP' Price o take into Account ALL the Money available in the MAIN Market - as well as SOLELY in the Betfair SP Market -

Then then 'Projected SP' Price would be 'JUMPING ABOUT like a Yo-YO' (with every Automatic 1 second Refresh - as the Money Available in the MAIN Market CONSTANTLY Fluctuated due to Matched Bets - New Offers - Cancelled Backs & Lays .....

YET - The 'Projected SP' is Mostly/Often STATIC on many runners - and for up to Minutes - Not Seconds.

^ add - whereas the Betfair SP Market is far, far, Quieter

@screaming

"Wouldn't a lumpy 'Take SP' option on a bet in the main market also affect the likely SP as shown in the pre-race price info?" - no, because the "if unmatched take SP" money isn't accounted for in either of the BSP projections

@onlooker

"For the 'Projected SP' Price to take into Account ALL the Money available in the MAIN Market - as well as SOLELY in the Betfair SP Market"

It does - if you want to see the difference, edit your settings to show both the "Near" and "Far" projected SP return, so you can see what would be the price using just money at SP and what it would be including the money in the main market.

no, because the "if unmatched take SP" money isn't accounted for in either of the BSP projections

Thanks for that, longbridge. As I said subsequently, it's what I suspected after reading Betfair's explanations properly, but it's good to have it confirmed.

So, now we know what happened. A Take SP bet with no minimum price stipulated is responsible for what happened. (As plenty of cleverer posters than me had explained earlier in the thread.)

I don't think there is any way to stipulate a minimum price with a 'Take SP' bet (unlike a 'straight' SP bet)

That's right. You can't.

I just meant that by clicking "Take Sp If Unmatched", the punter effectively left himself open to taking a 28/1 SP, because he couldn't stipulate a minimum price.

I phrased it badly.

Surely somebody took bets at 80s or so and found
they had a hole in their book and took whst
was available last minute to balance out, driving
down price?

No chance for it to go back out before off.


I assume it drifted after the off?

Where would you see a 3K wanting to take BFSP ?
Supposition ?

Then then 'Projected SP' Price would be 'JUMPING ABOUT like a Yo-YO'

This would be the case if there was a big difference in back & lay amounts at SP , not if they were roughly the same.
You can't cancel an SP bet but you could place a back or lay at SP to effectively cancel it, near to the off time.
Could this method be used to manipulate the projected SP and cause a freak SP to reoccur ?

"You can't cancel an SP bet but you could place a back or lay at SP to effectively cancel it, near to the off time."

I cannot immediately see how that would work, given SP Lay bets are to liability not stake; could you give an example of what you mean?

(FWIW I think the concensus here is right - someone placed a big bet at a price that never matched with "Take BSP" ticked which then smashed the SP down)