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mepoor
05 Apr 22 22:48
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Date Joined: 16 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 4,002 | Blogger: mepoor's blog
just thought i would give little interest to national and see if any one fancies them.i once picked all first five places , and was lucky enough to have my biggest bet in the race on the winner. with out looking back at who they where the winner was rubstic just beating zongalero in photo not sure the rest as was on hig picking winner alone, anyway i picked these horses out for saturday and have put small single on them for fun as thats all i bet national for, here they are if any one interested.
SNOW LEOPARDESS.
LONGHOUSE POET.
BURROWS SAINT.
KILDISART.
GOOD BOY BOBBY.
I am sure will get good run for money having interest in these.

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Replies: 39
By:
driver2
When: 06 Apr 22 02:52
You've got a great team to go to war with mepoor, I particularly like Burrows Saint and Snow Leopardess although I couldn't rule out any of your 5. GL
By:
Ramruma
When: 06 Apr 22 06:33
You do not say what "this way" is, and without that information, it is just a list of horses.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 06 Apr 22 07:38
If he has to go back to Rubstic I suggest he is using a pin!
By:
Hayden
When: 06 Apr 22 09:35
I'm in mepoor and will back accordingly , anyone who can pick the first 5 home albeit 43 years ago is a man in form , matches Michael Dickinson's feat in 1983 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
By:
mepoor
When: 06 Apr 22 10:16
i did wonder if any one would ask how i did it, and deff not a pin lol. there is a common sense strategy to it.
first of all you delete any horse that has fell,pulled up, unseated,run out,basically any horse that has never finished a race in its career for any reason.
then you delete any horse that has never won over  3 miles minimum,
and basically these two moves leave you with my horses.
the next logical move would be to look at going if good ground burrows saint and kildisart would be the main two.
if soft ground the other three.
i might add there has been no horse younger than 8 win the race since before world war 2 dosnt mean alot but still.
lately the trend seems to be going down to  8 or 9, but two things you need for national is power to stay strong on feet at fences and speed to not get to attached,
so form is the final part of jig saw to try get winner and there is no doubt snow leapardess is worthy fav having won over fences lately and kildisart on his great run second at cheltenham is very good but has been lightly raced for what ever reason hopefully fit as he would fit bill,longhouse poet seems to relish heavy so might be to quick for him,burrow saint finish fourth in race before on similar ground so deff has most things right and extra year could make his stamina more,goodboy bobby he has only won once over 3 miles so deff stamina worry but he jumps well and should have speed to be right up there i can see him being one of those horse at half way your loving his jumping just hoping he dosnt just die.
hope the reason makes sense to most.
By:
hunt lunt and cunningham
When: 06 Apr 22 10:56
Just wondered if any anorak out there can tell me using Mepoors system, would Foinavon have won in 1967?
Good luck on Saturday mepoor, seems a fair starting point
By:
stewarts rise
When: 06 Apr 22 12:02
Problem with Snow Leopardess is the fact that no Mare has won for over 70 years.
By:
tyred
When: 06 Apr 22 12:09
I like horses that have speed not to get attached Crazy
By:
Hayden
When: 06 Apr 22 12:20
Think he meant detached tyred
By:
penzance
When: 06 Apr 22 12:26
One For Arthur
Mon Mome
Tiger Roll
Neptune Collonges
Auroras Encore
these failed to complete a race before their National win
by the looks of it.Many Clouds PU in a hurdle race.There could
be more.
Bit of a rigid system.
   GL
By:
tyred
When: 06 Apr 22 13:04
Maori Venture and Seagram (a couple of my picks) also liked to unseat or fall now and again Crazy
By:
Brian
When: 06 Apr 22 13:12
I'm going from memory so I'll probably be corrected but I don't think Foinavon had fallen prior to his win. I  remember that I regarded him as a safe jumper but as slow as a boat.
By:
Whippin Piccadilly
When: 06 Apr 22 13:14
Anyone have the stats for mares who've gone into the race with a legitimate chance? Btw, Magic of Light almost ended the long losing run for mares in the race.
By:
tyred
When: 06 Apr 22 13:18
I thought a mare won it last year Crazy
By:
ged
When: 06 Apr 22 13:23
Foinavon had fallen, more than once. When he was trained by Tom Dreaper in Ireland, he fell once with Pat Taaffe. Betty Dreaper, Tom's wife, ran over to see if horse and jockey were ok. Pat was fine, but Foinavon was still lying down - eating grass. It was then they decided he was too lazy to be worth persevering with.

Going into the National, his form figs were 0F0040, all subsequent to Feb 4th, when he finished 2nd. The National was run on April 8.

The 4th of those figs was in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and the last, the Saturday before Aintree, was in the April Fools Handicap at Leicester.
By:
Brian
When: 06 Apr 22 13:26
Thanks for the correction Ged.
By:
tyred
When: 06 Apr 22 13:27
I think it's on Pathe news on youtube but it's funny how he ended up winning,

he was so far back that he completely missed all the mayhem ahead Crazy
By:
elise
When: 06 Apr 22 13:31
ged, i thought it was last in the gold cup before aintree but got a 4th in a king george at some point in its career, i don't think it won more than 2 or 3 races ever?
By:
elise
When: 06 Apr 22 13:34
ok i think i misread what you meant by the 4th, as in not finishing 4th but the fourth race in the series
By:
elise
When: 06 Apr 22 13:36
i've looked it up as 7th at 500-1 last of 7 finishers now but i do recall reading it got round in a KG one year
By:
ged
When: 06 Apr 22 13:48
elise, yes, sorry, it was a bit ambiguous. I meant the 4th figure in the sequence (a '0'), not the '4' in the sequence.
By:
elise
When: 06 Apr 22 13:50
yeah cheers, i know you normally have the answer so i knew it was me
By:
ged
When: 06 Apr 22 13:55
Fonavon finished 4th in the previous KG - Arkle's last race. Maigret was a 'bad' 3rd behind Dormant and Arkle, with Foinavon 5 lengths behind him. Scottish Final was a further 4 lengths back in 5th, and last to finish. Two fallers.
By:
thelatarps
When: 06 Apr 22 14:03
Up until about 10 years ago the National used to be a very strong trends race.
Then the handicapper got involved.
I remember Tom Segal writing about it, how the hcapper stated intention was to get more graded horses winning.
IMO the hcapper routinely over rates uk horses who win staying chases.
This has had the effect of compressing the handicap in races like the Aintree GN.
So the bottom weight saturday is going to be 10-6 probably. ANd Gordon Elliott feels justified in throwing 8 darts. None of whom are going to win, tho do please come back to me saturday 530 if I am proved wrong.

Recent memory we have had horses like
Neptune Collonges, one time G1 chaser on the downgrade
Pineau De Re, French bred 3m handicap hurdler who clouted every fence
Many Clouds, Gold Cup also ran carrying near top weight
Ruler Of The World, a Novice
Tiger Roll, tiny one time juvenile hurdler who only had to be ridden up with the pace.

The moral of the story is that I wouldnt be counting anything out of winning this years race.
By:
paulo47
When: 06 Apr 22 15:17
Anyone who is at all interested in racing should read the David Owen book Foinaven etc published in 2014 , a great read and you certainly feel a lot more empathy with the horse than before you read it .
By:
hunt lunt and cunningham
When: 06 Apr 22 18:22
Thanks ged, I know I had backed Honey End which came second and think that Foinaven payed over 400/1 on the tote but couldnt remember anything about the winners earlier races
By:
mepoor
When: 06 Apr 22 20:09
yes i did mean not get detached ofcourse and ofcourse horses have won it before after misshaps but what i am saying is having sure footing more than jumping, and pace to be at least in contention are crucial. i have bet winners like mr frisk who i thought was very strong as lovely jumper and fast ground made him stick out, then red marauder because  the ground was heavy and i actually told any one a week before race if there was anything breed of gunner b bet it as love heavy and on day there was only one red marauder.thats why i mentioned ground earlier over that distance its crucial.
i am not saying its perfect by any means just stating fact that i done it before and worked, this forum badly needed some real horse racing chat i am sure every one would agree.
By:
Hibore
When: 06 Apr 22 22:59
Red Marauder fell the race before he won the National. That is rule 1 out the window Laugh
By:
mepoor
When: 07 Apr 22 01:29
i didnt say i do this for every national, i said i done it once and got all five, but i study form and pick them for all differant reasons , i just thought any one looking for logical way to pick one would be interested and thats why i done it but if you look back in history there has been a few horses who won the race for those two reasons never having not finished a race and winning over at least three miles.but red maruader was breed of gunner b as i said and thats why i bet that one as stated, mr frisk loved firm ground hence why it broke course record in it.there is a lot of very clever clogs on here who i have never seen put a decent thread up in there life, yet the run every single thread down its the most bizzare thing, what i have stated is  5 horses and why and its there to see for any one interested so if not interested thats total fine, if some one could put up one of those 5 horses havnt  finished a race or won over 3 miles then i would understand critisized as i had it wrong.
By:
ged
When: 07 Apr 22 07:26
It's a sound enough principle.

But as for your after-time, The Pigarlic, who was 4th behind Rubstic, had Pulled Up 2 races before the National. Zongalero had Pulled Up in his last race of the previous season, and Rubstic humself had Pulled Up in his first 2 races of the 77/78 season.
By:
Brian
When: 07 Apr 22 12:32
Mepoor you won't be the first or last to relive an old betting experience but the old memory not got the details correct, it is still an interesting theory.

I recall reliving my first bet and I got the name, the course and the month and year correct but some one kindly told me I had got the price wrong (I thought it was 7/1 but it was 7/2) and the jockey and even on this thread my memory of Foinavon wasn't right. It's no big deal imo.
By:
tyred
When: 07 Apr 22 12:37
some other good jumpers like West Tip and Rhyme N Reason got it wrong now and then so not finishing a race is a must imo Crazy
By:
elise
When: 07 Apr 22 12:42
for a laugh ive just done a sort of reverse trends and got blaklion, coko beach, noble ****
By:
elise
When: 07 Apr 22 12:43
fck me it's "y eats" not "y ates"
By:
Hayden
When: 07 Apr 22 13:19
I think what mepoor is trying to say in a nutshell is.....

It's not an exact science so do your own thing.
By:
Hibore
When: 07 Apr 22 13:26
Back to the pin then.
By:
youresomean
When: 07 Apr 22 13:55
Double letter names. None have won since Mon Mome (100/1) in 2009. Another notable winner was Tipperary Tim (100/1) in 1928 and not forgetting Red Rum three times winner.

So it's about time for another.

Six go tomorrow

Brahna Bull 66/1

Dingo Dollar 50/1

Class Conti 100/1

Cloth Cap 25/1

Poker Party 66/1

Death Duty 33/1

Good luck, however you pick them.
By:
mepoor
When: 08 Apr 22 00:07
good luck every one have fun watching it.
By:
Emitdeb
When: 08 Apr 22 05:55
Which one will be given the most "magic carrots" before kick-off?  is the likeliest.. imo.
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