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Andrew.in.Sweden
09 Jan 22 08:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 5,128 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys,

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it (readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar.

Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post race (i neglected this in latter part of 2021).

The first 4 threads (2 in 2018) were profitable with a total gain of £2242 (pre-commission) to a level £50 stake (breakdown below). I didn't replicate this level in 2021, in fact i consider it a poor effort on my part and only 28 P/L selections in the year (workload often gets in the way). Compare this to 2018 when there were 66 in 70 consecutive days (4 x NR's) although i had far more time on my hands in those days.

Pre-commission there was sufficient profit in 2021 to buy a Toblerone bar and a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. To negate this in 2022 whenever a lay(s) is/are posted, one of them will be titled Lay Post and subject to a running P/L (as previous threads).

As on all my lay threads everyone is more than welcome to post on whatever topic, horse racing or otherwise, banter is a bonus and all i politely request is no bickering or trolling please. It was noticeable on the previous couple of threads there are those that like to antagonise and dispute posted facts, replying with infantile reasoning (and untruths) but sadly this is a reflection of social media we know today.

My previous lay threads record

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Andrews 2021 Lay Thread (reduced selections)
I will scroll back, update the thread and post here.

Good luck to all readers in 2022.
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
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Report stewarts rise May 22, 2022 2:56 PM BST
Well done with your Lays!
Report Lucky Luciano May 22, 2022 3:09 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew
Thanks for the write up always welcome to read.

Alan,
Re Leeds today I was looking for reasons to lay them and that is one of the better ones as I was not aware of the animosity
Good luck all
Report Insideshrewdie May 22, 2022 3:50 PM BST
Brilliant Andrew.....superb winner at Curragh!
Report PHS May 22, 2022 3:52 PM BST

May 22, 2022 -- 3:50PM, Insideshrewdie wrote:


Brilliant Andrew.....superb winner at Curragh!


Wow!

Report ashleigh May 22, 2022 3:55 PM BST
well done andrew, she was impressive.
Report second again May 22, 2022 4:38 PM BST
Very well done with the 1,000 winner.
Report Early Morning Riser May 22, 2022 7:26 PM BST
Well done again Andrew.
Report Billy Liddell May 23, 2022 4:06 AM BST
Well done Andrew, great thread..
Report TheAnorak May 23, 2022 11:43 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

Isn't it great when a horse you've spotted turns out to be a star - WD.

And I thought you'd get a laugh from this, a comment BTL from a Brighton fan to an article today listing the best games of the PL season:

"Brighton 4 Man Utd 0 ..... at least we were told it was Man Utd in the Red shirts, although you could tell it was really Bristol City."

A totally uncalled for dig!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 24, 2022 11:30 AM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the WD’s ref Homeless Songs (Irish 1000 guineas) on Sunday, she certainly looked a star in the making and is very likely the best 3 year old filly around, although the season is young of course. I thought she travelled really well, even 3f out, and a furlong later i was starting to shout her home, so easily was she going and knowing the turn of foot we all saw in her previous run. It’s going to take something very decent to beat her in the Coronation stakes at RA (assuming no firm ground) and i’m not sure there is anything in the field anyway, she wouldn’t look out of the place in the Sussex later in the year. I guess if you wanted to crab the form, both the placed horses will be better over further, but the manner in which she won was very impressive.

A decent post on Sunday, all 3 lays were beaten (i didn’t lay Al Boum Photo as he drifted to over 7). Native Trail won in Ireland on Saturday (as most of us expected) and although my ante-post stake on Homeless Songs was only small, i had another similar bet on Sunday. A lay of Naomi Osaka in the French tennis was icing on the cake yesterday and although Burnley never turned up in the football (layed them to be relegated) it was a good weekend of betting for yours truly. My pre-RA weekend (arrive Saturday 11th) and QA day at the meeting expenses are significantly reduced, but will count for nothing if Baaeed is beaten.

The GB fixtures this afternoon are much of a muchness and Bath surprisingly races with soft in the going description, but i didn’t fancy anything there anyway. At Punchestown i thought Frontline Worked (1.55) was short enough at 2/1 even allowing for the opposition. Finished 8th of 21 LTO and while this may look good as a form line, of the 13 in behind, 12 of them were at triple digit odds. I would sooner be a layer than a backer here.

One to back at Gowran Park is an Aga Khan owned, 3 year old filly Suwayra (5.50) who won a 8f maiden at Leopardstown last season and looked decent when doing so. The form has been franked with the runner-up winning a listed race by 8L LTO, additionally the 3rd and 6th home have also won since. Needs to improve and will probably have to be listed class to win this evening, but this is not out of the question by any means. A nice little race and although odds of 5/2 may not exactly be generous, i feel she’s worth a small bet. 

Regular readers may remember i put up Noble Style as a potential winner of the Coventry stakes earlier this month after he won at Ascot. I was taken by the manner of his win and the form has been franked with the 4th winning by 5L and runner-up by 7L at York on Sunday (trainer David Loughnane was very positive about this one in ITV interviews). Mind you AOB looks to have a decent sort in Blackbeard and Richard Hannon’s Persian Force is also speedy, but i have a feeling we are going to be hearing a lot more about Charlies horse who could turn out much better than both.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.

Stewart Rise

Ref, closer to home at Fakenham, sure Cologne is half the distance from München, but i appreciate your comment was tongue in cheek and i guess i was typing with my birthplace in mind. Wink

Alan

Thanks.

I vaguely remembered we had missed a penalty in the FA cup against Spurs back in time, but not the fact it had to be retaken. Ashton Gate is completely different now compared to the year you were last there (1973) with extensive re-development work to the stands.

As for the Brighton fan comment, i would be the first to agree with him (Laugh) we’re actually quite a poor team at the moment and have been for a few seasons. On our day, we can be good and results against decent teams support this, but these days are few and far between. We actually knocked Jose Mourinho’s MU out of the League Cup a few seasons ago to reach the semis (they were a much better team then) but sadly we lost against their city rivals over the 2 legs, 2-1 (away) and 3-2 although not a disgrace. We actually led them at Maine Rd, but De Brunyne equalised and Aquero scored in the 92nd minute. We can’t compete with teams of this quality.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 26, 2022 10:06 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

May 26th, Ascension day and although not celebrated in all European countries, it is in Germany and consequently a free day for the working populous, hence i have plenty of time for a few daily muses before leaving the city and head to the lakeside for lunch, a couple of beers and watch the world go by.

Father's day occurs on the same date as the Ascension epoch here although i doubt my daughter is aware of this, by that i mean the day as a celebration per se, not who her father is Laugh

After the Lord Mayors show over the weekend/Monday (with respect to betting gains) i was brought back to earth quickly with my post on Tuesday consisting of a lay and back both in Ireland. I should have played them the other way around as Frontline Worker won (drifted from 2/1 to 7/2 SP) and there were similar betting patterns with the filly Suwayra who was slowly away and appeared to run as needing the race finishing 3rd. The day featured a 300/1 winner early so maybe this was a sign from 'above' to leave well alone.

An array of ordinary meetings in GB/Ireland this afternoon, but there is a group race card at Sandown later and same across the channel at Longchamp and Baden-Baden. The latter course is on my bucket list, but is too far to travel on a Thursday and i wouldn't have a clue who wins the G2 anyway.

Johnny Murtagh has a couple of entries in the listed race (7.15) at Longchamp and his Raadobarg has a favourites chance, but i'm not interested in backing it. The same applies to Dermot Welds Search For A Song in the G2 (7.45) in fact i would be a layer at the current odds. Mind you, liquidity is dire at these mid-week French venues.

The only meeting i have a real interest is at Sandown this evening featuring the G3 Brigadier Gerard stakes (7.25) once known as the Coronation stakes (after QEII) and won by such illustrious names as Workforce and Bosra Sham in bygone years although quality of winners is not generally in this class as you would expect.

Sir Michael Stoute is undoubtedly the trainer to follow with no less than 11 winners of the race and has a decent chance with the progressive 4 year old Bay Bridge. The likely favourite Mostahdaf will be difficult to beat, but i'm not backing either, instead i've already layed Addeybb (4.0 and 4.1) who is 8 years old, may need the race after injury and perhaps prefer a little more juice in the ground.

Another potential lay is Indigio Jones in the class 3 handicap (currently 3.60). Hasn't really progressed since winning a class 5 maiden at Chelmsford last year and i'm not sure the step back in trip to 8f is a positive. Tends to run freely often enough and has never raced on going with soft in the going description.

If there is a back at decent odds maybe the speedily bred Rumstar (currently 10) is a solid EW option in the Listed sprint (6.15) although a NR reducing the field to 7 is not helpful of course. Front runners do well in 5f sprints here and the odds on favourite Crispy Cat (drawn 1) may be difficult to beat although he will have to be out of the gate smartly as there is a lot of pace in the lower drawn runners. Hopefully Rumstar can get a prominent position early and challenge late, he's unlucky not be be unbeaten in 2 runs (winner reopposes) and trainer/jockey form is a bonus. He will give us a good run, but only for small stakes.

The forum poster Brigust1 is attending this named meeting and considering he is an ex-groom of the great horse i can imagine it will be a poignant evening, more so as it is only just over a year since jockey Joe mercer passed away. I would liked to have gone (never been to this meeting) but i'm travelling home to Sweden tomorrow afternoon for a 3 day weekend, returning early Tuesday.

Changing sports, the French Open (tennis) got under way last Sunday and in my opinion there is now a very good opportunity to back a favourite at reasonable odds (at least in context of the risk).

Not in the Mens competition, that appears to be a little more chancy with top 3 in the betting in the same half of the draw, question marks against the top 2 and a potential up and coming future star in Alcaraz, but my bet is in the womens division.

The player in question is Iga Swiatek who won in 2020 and is the current world number 1 now that Ashley Barty has surprisingly retired. The best player left in the competition and her route to the final has been made much easier in recent days with seeds 2, 5, 6 and 10 already knocked out.

Without Barty and Serena Williams, she is one of the few real top quality players left and is currently on a run of 28 successive wins. Young, fit, a very fast serve and one of the best attacking/forehand players around. Her next opponent is Alison Riske (shouldn't be a problem at all) and later, possibly Simona Halep (ranked 19) in the 4th round and Paula Badosa (ranked 3) in the semi final.

I really can't see who there is to beat her, she can only beat herself in my opinion and odds of 1.71 to win outright will not be available (or even close to) when she reaches the final. I expect her to win and have backed her already.

If i was going to play in the Mens (i haven't) it would actually be on Stefanos Tsitsipas who reached the final last year and is in the opposing half of the draw (currently trading around 7.6 on here).

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Report TheAnorak May 26, 2022 10:40 AM BST
Morning All,

Apart from Sandown, there's a race well worth watching at Yarmouth (1:30), a 2yo contest over 7F, the winner of which is likely to be well fancied for the Chesham Stakes at Ascot. Two runners from Charlie Appleby take on a favourite from the Gosden yard and Buick, Doyle and Dettori have all opted to miss Sandown in order to ride in this race.

With my fingers over my eyes, I'll also be watching the 2:00 at Yarmouth, where the horse I talked up after seeing his debut at Windsor, Sooghan, has his third run. Connections have ignored my suggestion that his last performance should be followed by a visit from the vet, so he'll go unbacked by me this time. Maybe that operation is being delayed until he has a handicap mark that can then be exploited as a gelding. On the form of his last run, he can't beat Naval College who finished just in front of him under a tender ride, and that one looked in need of this longer trip when I saw him at Salisbury two weeks ago.
Report PHS May 28, 2022 9:34 AM BST
ttt
Report happysandwich June 2, 2022 2:06 PM BST
Let’s all bang our knives and forks on the table and sing

♬  Why are we waiting?  ♫

Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 3, 2022 8:08 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

Back in Germany (since early Tuesday) after a nice social weekend in Linköping albeit marred by my foot having an argument with a steel fire door in the apartment block basement on Monday. Unfortunately i wasn't wearing shoes and the door won resulting in a visit to hospital. No break thankfully, but very painful at the time. Big toe still swollen, a nice Burgundy colour and supported by strapping to keep it rigid, but it could have been worse i guess. A break may have had an impact on my trip to RA later this month.

Working from home as a result, but Epsom and Roland Garros this afternoon will be a welcome distraction. 

I expect the favourite Emily Upjohn to win the Oaks, but i was surprised how short Pyledriver was in the Coronation Cup and i will be laying. As for the Derby, i haven't a clue, i think it's more open than the betting may suggest.

My previous post (May 26th) turned out OK with all lays beaten and Iga Swiatek (French Open) reaching the final to be played tomorrow. Suggested at odds of 1.71, she's now 1.18. I backed at 1.73, 1.72 and 1.53, but will not be trading, i've always thought she was the winner here.

Happysandwich

My Grandmother used to say "patience is a virtue" (bless her). Wink

You're aware of the above (WhatsApp) but i haven't been playing much this week anyway, more tennis than horses i think. Meeting friends in Sweden, foot issues and travelling were basically to blame for lack of posting.

Alan

Thanks for the post.

PHS

Thank for the ttt.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 4, 2022 11:33 AM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

No less than 9 meetings in GB/Ireland today although Epsom is the Swan amongst Ducks as far as quality is concerned with the Derby taking pride of place. I've never been to the course, but it was always my favourite race in bygone days and i certainly remember some of turf racings' greats. Fast forward to today and i sense it has lost a little of it's lustre (it will never replicate the era 1965/1975, or even 1985) but to be there on the day has to be a wonderful exeperience.

Who wins this afternoon ? I have no idea to be honest, i think it's wide open with question marks against several of the fancied runners and any bet i have will be restricted to a few tenners. At the moment i'm leaning toward Nations Pride (a topically named runner in view of the jubilee celebrations) but it wouldn't surprise me if Ryan completed a double on Stone Age after yesterdays Oaks win.

Whatever horse wins, a nice touch by the sponsors (i'm making an assumption here) adding Lester Piggott to the race title, quite possibly the greatest jockey ever, certainly since i got into the game. It's a national disgrace the guy was never knighted irrespective of a 12 month prison sentence for tax evasion. I'm not aware of another sportsman who has been knighted with a criminal record, but it wouldn't surprise me one iota if there is a politician as such. Rant over.

Elsewhere at Epsom i think Mustasaabeq will win the Diomed (3.15). Has a little to find on ratings with a few of these, but is lightly raced and was unlucky not to win the G2 Bet 365 Mile at Sandown LTO. The slightly longer trip may even be a positive.

In the Dash (3.45) a large field of 20 (generally the case for this race) and you could pick 10 runners without getting the winner. The fastest 5f sprint in the country and i think the front running Justanotherbottle has an EW chance, although the draw could play a part.

Yesterdays Oaks resulted in a dramatic finish that will be discussed for some time to come with dividing opinions. I doubt there will be many who think the favourite Emily Upjohn was unlucky, but nothing should be taken away from the winner, i think we saw 2 quality G1 fillies that we will be hearing much more about this season.

The slow start was obviously part of the reasoning for the favourite being beaten (to be fair the winner wasn't that far in front of him after 3f) but using energy to close and coming around the field when Ryan had the inside has cost her far more than the head bob she was beaten by. JG has already mentioned the plan was to be up with the pace in the front 4, but it's racing and she should have won. I don't attach any blame to Frankie (and i backed him).

Compensation awaits, i can't see her being beaten in Ireland if she goes over for their Oaks even if the winner reopposes (unlikely apparently) although odds will reflect this. I will actually go as far as stating i don't think she will be beaten by another filly this season.

Changing sport to tennis and i will have one eye on the French Womens Open (ante-post bets on Iga Swiatek ref previous posts). By far and away the best clay court player in the competition from the start and even 1.17 is a bet in my opinion (not that i need to). She wins 2-0 and easily for me.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Maybe a lay post later.
Report GLASGOWCALLING June 4, 2022 3:31 PM BST
Tennis weighed in ...  Well done Andrew. Happy
Report second again June 4, 2022 3:37 PM BST
Well done with the tennis,Inthe sprint Yours is drawn 1 and I have backed Baldings in stall 18 so we should not get in each others way.
Report PHS June 4, 2022 5:05 PM BST
WD Andrew.
Report isleham June 4, 2022 11:11 PM BST
The women's semi finals and final total one sided farces with the combined games being 36 to 11. How poor is the women's division ATM.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 5, 2022 10:46 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

After seeing a couple of decent types in the fillies Derby on Friday, it was the colts turn yesterday and favourite backers must have been in clover well before the 2f marker so easily was Desert Crown travelling. The race was effectively over in several strides after quickening up thereafter. Considering his lack of inexperience (aka Lammtarra 27 years ago) it was an impressive performance, the best since Golden Horn in my opinion (yes i did see Adayar) and it's possible he could emulate both by winning the Arc.

If we wanted to crab the result, odds of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed finishers are a negative rationale (although the runner-up was clearly over-priced) but Westlover could turn out decent. Irrespective of this the winning time was good (eased down) an impressive turn of foot and is clearly the best 3 year old middle distance horse around. I'm curious how the BHA handicapper sees it next week and if i had to second guess i would go for a rating of 122.

Where does he go next ? Irish Derby, Eclipse or KG/QEII ? He's not entered in the first couple but i think he will be supplemented for Sandown although we can forget a match with Baaeed who i feel will go for the Sussex. Let's hope he passes a stall test before his next run.

The GB cards this afternoon look interesting at least with ITV4 continuing the Sunday series at Musselburgh, but for prestige, it has to be Chantilly for the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) meeting with the big race at 3.00.

Charlie Appleby runs his Longchamp 2000 Guineas winner Modern Games but i've already layed this one based on an accumulation of unknowns including adverse draw, trip and chance of softer going. Regular readers know i have 'followed' Welwal since a debut win in 2021, but whether he is good enough is a doubt. Mind you at silly odds (currently 30) i may have a fun/small EW out of sentiment.

I think a better EW bet than the pre-mentioned tentative outsider is Sicilian Defence in the G2 Prix Sandringham who would have finished much closer than 7th in the 1000 Guineas LTO, only beaten 2.25L after being bumped at the start and denied a clar run 2.5F out. She had run well in a couple of previous races on the course albeit over 6.5f. The trip shouldn't be an issue.

For shortie backers, Golden Taipen at Perth (4.32) surely has a favourites chance in this small field, even giving 9 lb away to a possible well handicapped (but out of sorts) rival in Amalfi Doug. May have been unlucky over 20f at Warwick LTO. I can't have the GE runner, but nothing surprises me in this game. Not one to be lumping on, but at odds against (currently 2.16) i feel he's a bet as i see him a shade of odds-on.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Glasgow, Second Again and PHS

Thank you.

We all have instances when confidence is high after placing a bet (sometimes too confident) and i was in Iga Swiatek's case. Odds of 1.73 after 4 seeds were knocked out was a gift, although it's easy to say now of course. I actually went in again at 1.53 as mentioned. Mind you it's good she did win, i can't buy a winner on the horses at all. My last 11 naps in the forum competition have resulted in only 2 winners.

Isleham

Exactly, and i intimated as such in my May 26th post. Without Barty and Williams there's only a handful of potential grand slam winners left and a few of these have question marks, Osaka (mental health issues) and Halep (run of injuries) to name a couple. Her game is well suited to clay, but she is so good, even winning Wimbledon on grass is not out the question at all. I think she's going to be winning several more slams in time (only 21 years old).
Report PHS June 5, 2022 4:45 PM BST
For shortie backers, Golden Taipen at Perth (4.32) surely has a favourites chance in this small field, even giving 9 lb away to a possible well handicapped (but out of sorts) rival in Amalfi Doug. May have been unlucky over 20f at Warwick LTO. I can't have the GE runner, but nothing surprises me in this game. Not one to be lumping on, but at odds against (currently 2.16) i feel he's a bet as i see him a shade of odds-on.


WD AndrewCool
Report Early Morning Riser June 5, 2022 6:20 PM BST
Well done again Andrew with the winner,lay and place today.
Report happysandwich June 5, 2022 7:05 PM BST
Andrew,

Did they show the celebrations of the Queens 70 years on the throne on German TV?

Tell the lads in the office four days of partying here and they never mentioned the war once. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 7, 2022 9:23 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Pushed for time and not much i like that’s running today anyway, but one i think can be backed is Aiming High (Salisbury 3.45). A progressive filly who was an eye-catcher (troubled run 2f out) when she won on handicap debut at Doncaster LTO off a mark of 74. Same class this afternoon, going and trip not an issue and she has course experience. As a 3 year old, she’s receiving plenty of weight from all bar one. Trainer/jockey only entry/mount. Raised 5 lb for the win, she looks ahead of the handicapper to me and at odds around 2/1 I think she’s a bet.

For those unaware, Epsom Derby winner Desert Crown is upped to 123 in BHA ratings.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.

PHS/Early Morning Riser

Thank you. It was an OK day overall for me, although i only backed Sicilian Defence for the win in the end.

Happysandwich

Yes, the jubilee celebrations were covered here (and most of Europe) although not to extent of the BBC (that i watched it on) of course. From what i understand the ‘Battle of Britain’ formation wasn’t shown here. Laugh

Tonight we have Germany v England in the football, so i may have to work remote from home tomorrow. Wink

Alan

Good luck at Newbury on Thursday.
Report TheAnorak June 7, 2022 11:26 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

Thanks - pleased to have got him in an 8 runner race that doesn't look too competitive.

I'm just about to set off for Salisbury and agree about Aiming High. I'd just add a stat, which shows the race has been run now for 16 years, and 14 of those have been won by a 3-y-old. That isn't quite as dramatic as it sounds, as 3-y-old runners have outnumbered older ones and a couple of times there have been fields of only 3-y-olds. But it does emphasise how difficult it is for older horses to overcome the weight for age allowance, especially when the 3-y-old is lightly raced and improving.

That's why you see my horses kept to 4yo and up races whenever possible!
Report TheAnorak June 8, 2022 7:08 AM BST
A shocking run from Aiming High, which was remarkably well predicted by the market on here. At the course, I can report that she looked fit and well and moved fluently to post. At that point the rails bookies were offering 11/8, but after the runners arrived at the start, her price got bigger by the second. I don't know what she reached on here, but given an SP of 2/1, it was probably at least 3.5.

Her jockey reported that she was 'never travelling', something the regulars at Salisbury had spotted without his help. The stewards took no further interest and I'll be amazed if we ever hear anything more about the race from the trainer or the authorities. Clearly somebody knew what to expect from Aiming High! To rub salt in the wound, the only other 3-y-old in the field duly maintained their dominance of this race.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 8, 2022 8:23 AM BST
Morning Alan,

Thanks for your posts.

I was also surprised at the run of Aiming High, as i guess many were, she had a lot in her favour and was well backed in the morning. I didn't see the race live (VR later) but did notice the significant betting odds drift on course. If she had finished close up in the placings and was simply beaten by a better handicapped rival (it appears the winner is) fair enough, but over 20L 4th of 5 and never looking like being involved is a mockery really.

Mind you we've both been in the game long enough to know nothing is surprising in racing. I didn't even have a saver on the other 3 year old either.

Irrespective of the above, hope you had a good day at the course.
Report TheAnorak June 8, 2022 1:38 PM BST
Andrew,

Not sure if you'll be pleased or disappointed that Coroebus has been left with little to beat now we know the six day decs for next Tuesday. He's the only Godolphin runner, Coolmore appear to have given up on the race, with two longshots left in. The 2000 Gns fourth, Eydon, has dropped out, leaving the 5th, 6th, 9th and 14th from Newmarket, along with the second and fourth from the Irish Guineas. Of those that bypassed the classics, Haggas has the main contenders with Maljoom and My Prospero.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 8, 2022 2:42 PM BST
Afternoon Alan,

Thanks. Disappointed, but not totally surprised.

My primary reason for coming over is Baaeed as the banker, with Coroebus icing on the cake. I'm only interested in the first 4 races anyway (Charlie to win the Coventry as well) then we are leaving. I have a flight from Heathrow at 20.25.

I mentioned on May 15th i expected the QA to cut up to only 6/7 and it appears the SJP will be similar now. Of course they are both long odds-on, but this was expected.
Report Lucky Luciano June 8, 2022 8:08 PM BST
Evening Andrew,

I have been kindly invited by one of the owners of sense of security, runs 4.15 Newbury tomorrow and have a guest badge which gives me access to the parade ring and winners enclosure so I’m hoping for a good run hopefully in the placings at least. To win would be unbelievable although a hard race he has chances.

It’s also the Southampton university race day tomorrow as well, at least 5 coaches of students going so will be fairly lively.
My daughter will be amongst them, she will no doubt be looking for funding at some point, hopefully not too often Grin
Report TheAnorak June 8, 2022 8:40 PM BST
Lucky,

Hopefully the jockey on Sense Of Security will be looking for a double after riding mine in the 3:45!
Report Lucky Luciano June 8, 2022 9:04 PM BST
Alan,
Yes, all the best with Love Dreams.
Report Brian June 8, 2022 9:21 PM BST
I'm no expert on jockeyship but I'm always happy to see David Probert on any horse I fancy. Always seems to be in the right place and I fancy he rides out for a place more consistently than other top jockeys.
Report happysandwich June 8, 2022 9:42 PM BST
Lucky,

I heard that the reporter that caught Alan by surprise in the parade ring the other week, before his horse won, could also be going.

Just make sure you’ve got your speech prepared before you go to bed tonight.

You never know –a  bag of nerves don’t look good in an interview. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 9, 2022 7:52 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Lucky

I wonder who that owner could be. Wink I knew he was going of course, but WD on getting a guest badge and at a nice course as well. SOS still tends to run keenly as we know, but if DP can settle her, she’s in with a shout and a good EW price. Good luck to both of you (and rest of the crew) i will certainly be watching from afar. Hope to see you at RA on Tuesday, if not before.

Alan

Likewise, good luck with yours in the preceding race, i had a fun EW double with the above on Sportsbook earlier, a bet i rarely play.

Happysandwich

You never know, Lucky might get lucky and be interviewed by Leonna or Adele Wink

Brian

Agreed, no issues with the jockey

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 11, 2022 7:33 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

A total of 9 meetings dottted around GB/Ireland for punters to find winners or losers today, crazy really and average at best with only a couple of listed races although this was to be expected with Royal Ascot just around the corner. There is a quality card at Auteuil (surprisingly not listed by the RP when i last looked) but no entries west of the channel.

I flipped through the cards over a coffee earlier but there wasn't anything that really jumped off the page at least from a backing perspective. The York handicaps are not easy and even the 2 listed races (one at Sandown) with reasonable rated fields are trappy. The favourite in the Scurry stakes Caturra has a lot in his favour albeit not one i would be lumping on at a short price.

In the 6f Heritage handicap at York (3.40) my lucky pin has fallen on Lethal Levi who has never finished out of the first 4 in 12 runs. Battled on well after looking beaten at Hamilton LTO and off a mark of 85 could be involved in the finish from a low draw (7). Raised 4 lb for the win, but the likeable apprentice takes off 3 lb and although he has to improve a little at current win odds of 29 on here a small stake EW (some books paying 6 places) may be profitable.

Several potential lay runners, but one i considered is Kemari (York 3.05) who is very hit and miss (only one decent run at Longchamp since winning at Ascot a year ago) and probably wants further than 14f on a flat track/good going. May have needed the run at Meydan (won by a stablemate) but ignoring the outsider (on ratings) there's not much between the other 5 runners and odds of 9/4 are short enough. I don't like laying a Charlie Appleby runner, but they don't all win of course.

Considering the amount of races today there are not many odds-on favourites, in fact i think i only noticed about 3 or 4 earlier (the premiership nap selections will be few Wink).

If i had to put up one shortie to win it would be Wild Max (Worcester 6.00). Has to atone for an odds-on loss LTO (excuses) but has a touch of class and can give the weight away to his only serious rival who was possibly a fortunate winner at Stratford. Currently trading at 1.75 i couldn't see a better one at similar odds to be backing today although he's not bombproof by any means.

I'm travelling to London later (17.50) and thankfully not by Easy Jet on this occasion due to the ongoing saga of cancelled flights. A couple of relaxing days and an English food fix before Royal Ascot on Tuesday, at the moment there are 6 of us meeting up including a few posters.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Alan

I guess you were not overly disappointed on Thursday, Love Dreams wasn't beaten far in 4th and as is the norm for him stayed on well at the finish (last furlong sectional time only just pipped by the winner).
Report TheAnorak June 11, 2022 8:59 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

That habit of staying on in the final furlong has persuaded me to give him a try over 10F - nothing to lose at his age by giving it a go and if it works, it would open up more opportunities for the rest of the year. My other one, Atheeb, runs tomorrow at Salisbury, 5:00. A good deal of time and money (vet and chiropractor) has been spent trying to sort him out since his last run and he seems fine at home, but this is very much last chance saloon. At least I've found him a six runner race that pays six prizes!

I'm also against Kemari today - his Ascot win now looks like the worst Group 2 ever run there, with not a single Group/Listed win recorded subsequently by any of the first six finishers. When he finished last of 8 in the Voltigeur, the stewards asked Appleby for an explanation and he couldn't offer one. In fact, the explanation was simple, the other seven were better horses.
Report Early Morning Riser June 11, 2022 3:20 PM BST
Well done both of you with your lay today.
Report PHS June 11, 2022 4:27 PM BST
In the 6f Heritage handicap at York (3.40) my lucky pin has fallen on Lethal Levi who has never finished out of the first 4 in 12 runs. Battled on well after looking beaten at Hamilton LTO and off a mark of 85 could be involved in the finish from a low draw (7). Raised 4 lb for the win, but the likeable apprentice takes off 3 lb and although he has to improve a little at current win odds of 29 on here a small stake EW (some books paying 6 places) may be profitable.

Nice placer AndrewWink
Report Early Morning Riser June 11, 2022 11:18 PM BST
The Longshot places and the shortie wins. nice
Report ashleigh June 12, 2022 10:46 AM BST
Andrew, like you was looking forward to watching Noble Style in the Coventry,sad to report he has had a small set back and won't run.Sad
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 13, 2022 11:10 AM BST
Good morning Guys from a sunny central London.

Enjoying being a 'tourist' for the day before RA tomorrow and also trying to find a bookmaker going 2/9 Baaeed, but i haven't found one yet. I could have backed at 4/9 ante-post of course, but we have seen backing too many prominent runners being withdrawn over time.

A profitable post on Saturday, all suggestions giving a return, but icing on the cake with a 20/1 4th in the Heritage handicap. Sadly i didn't have a single bet, even on the banker Wild Max who looked good on paper at least. C'est la vie.

A betting free day for me today. Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Early Morning Riser/PHS

Many thanks for the comments

Alan

WD with Kamari and thanks for the post per se.

Ashleigh

Thank for the heads-up ref Noble Style (the betting drift was a clue late last week). A pity it's a NR as i fancied it
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 13, 2022 11:11 AM BST
but we have seen too many prominent runners being withdrawn over time.
Report TheAnorak June 13, 2022 11:59 AM BST
Just an addition to thoughts about Coroebus and travel, first aired here in a post on May 1st (09.26). Last week I raised this theory in conversation with Ken Pitterson and a couple of other regulars on course at Salisbury. Ken told us that he'd been at a Godolphin press day back in April and when somebody asked Appleby why he hadn't entered Coroebus for the Greenham, his answer was 'I didn't want to travel him to Newbury'. Fwiw, given he's a horse that has to be held up for a late run, stall two doesn't look ideal for a race on the round mile at Ascot either - Buick will need be at his best to avoid the sort of traffic problems that are common on the round course. Good luck to his backers, but I'd rather be the bookie this time.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 13, 2022 12:19 PM BST
Thanks for your input Alan.

My initial plan back in time was a single on Baaeed and a small quad with Noble Pride, Golden and Coroebus to watch them run. With Noble now a NR and Baaeed 1/5 i won't bother. To be honest if the hot pot wins i will be happy and any other bets are simply for fun, i'm leaving after the SJP anyway.
Report happysandwich June 13, 2022 1:49 PM BST
Alan,

Just found out the ‘raspberry ripples’ with blue badges can park at Ascot for free and not pay the usual £45.
So me and Mrs H have factored that into our plans for tomorrow.

Thanks for the cautionary advice on Coroebus - we'll blame you if it wins and we're not 'on'.Laugh
Report Trusty June 14, 2022 10:32 AM BST
Thanks for all the opinions, hope you have a good day out, at least it's going to be a nice sunny day. I cannot back Baaeed at 1/5 and I hope it wins for AIS but just a watching race for me. I thought Wexford Native at 66/1 was an interesting runner, who races handily and Bolger has had 2 winners from 3 runners in the race (last 10 years). I think he will appreciate the better ground enabling to last out the distance. GL.
Report Trusty June 15, 2022 11:28 AM BST
If you are looking in The Anorak, I remember you mentioned previously JP OBrien's poor overseas strike rate, particularly at Ascot, which stands at 0/47 but I keep coming back to State Of Rest in the POW and feel he is overpriced at 7/1 and is worth a speculative win bet, any thoughts please?
Report TheAnorak June 15, 2022 11:53 AM BST
Morning Trusty,

The stat is the only reason to pass on that bet, and it's a hard one to explain. Given his experience of riding there for his father, he surely knows what is needed to win there and how to prepare a horse for the races. And of course, he has had big race success on other British tracks, including a St Leger. Perhaps the problem is more with the jockeys he uses rather than with the trainer - Shane Cross today has only had two previous rides at Ascot, no winners.

I've always been a stats/trends man, so I would opt to leave the race alone, rather than back State Of Rest. But it's inevitable that Jospeh will break his duck at some point - he simply has too many good horses for this losing run to go on for ever. Maybe it'll be today!
Report Trusty June 15, 2022 1:20 PM BST
Thanks for your reply The Anorak.

I have had a small interest of 720/100 as he shouldn't be a longer price than Lord North who he beat comprehensively and I have doubts about Bay Bridge stepping up to G1 despite Stoute's record in the race and know nothing about the Japanese horse except he looks a stayer and needs at least 12 furlongs; that's why I keep coming back to him!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 15, 2022 1:37 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Back in München after Royal Ascot yesterday with Mr/Mrs Happysandwich, 2 other regular posters and one none-so (friend to one of the posters). Arrived home much earlier than expected due a KLM cancellation and consequently being rebooked on to a direct Heathrow/München Lufthansa flight that actually did me a favour as no over-night stay in Schiphol was required.

Baaeed won the QA as expected by most of us, possibly not as impressive as maybe envisaged beforehand, but he’s not Frankel and i feel Jim looked after him with better fields in the future to come.

I managed to get 1/5 the night before with 1/6 on the day (1/8 was offered in several places when we arrived) and won a nice few bob, even taking into account the weekend travelling/hotel expenses. Thereafter i only had a couple of fun £20 backs and didn’t back Coroebus either, but i was happy he won for the others. I was surprised at the SP. In place of Nobel Pride in the Coventry i only had the small win bet on Persian Force and same on Golden Pal in the King’s Stand who lost in the first half-furlong, why didn’t Wesley use a GB/Irish jockey !

I left after the SJP. A really nice afternoon sitting in the sun (a warm day and most of us were sunburnt) a few beers, good company, plenty of banter and i think most of us were in profit.

A difficult RA card this afternoon and the only bet i’ve done is a small win/place on Greatgadien in the Royal Hunt Cup (5.00) but you could pick half the field and not get the winner. Bay Bridge will be popular and although he looks decent i’m not convinced he will win later although i wouldn’t lay him.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Alan/Trusty

Thank you for the posts.
Report stewarts rise June 15, 2022 2:00 PM BST
Half way through the year now Andrew, how many official lays have there been and how's the P/L looking, i don't mind at all as the interest in this thread is the interaction between you, Anorak and some others, good luck.
Report happysandwich June 15, 2022 2:21 PM BST
^
Stewarts rise,

Andrew left it all to me and I’m on Week 27. Laugh

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_NbwCB7bvZhuTUFzjK5tzv5rEwBss-h05hKG...
Report happysandwich June 15, 2022 2:26 PM BST
Alan,

I took onboard your words of caution about Coroebus yesterday and only risked the £67 I won on Baaeed.

£67 @ evens was sufficient to pay for a beautiful day out at RA with my wife.

Meeting up with Andrew and a couple the lads from here and having an afternoons good banter was the icing on the cake.
Report TheAnorak June 15, 2022 2:56 PM BST
W/d to Coroebus backers - I reckon Mr Buick got a bit lucky with that run up the far rail, something that doesn't happen often in fields of that size round Ascot. But credit to the horse, who was good enough to take advantage. Here's hoping we get the duel we all now want to see at Goodwood.
Report stewarts rise June 15, 2022 2:56 PM BST
Thanks HS, but says it doesn't exist!
Glad you all enjoyed your day but i don't think i'd go to all Andrews trouble to get there and back and have to leave after 4 races.
Report i_agree_with_nick June 15, 2022 3:47 PM BST
WD Trusty!
Report second again June 15, 2022 3:47 PM BST
Well done Trusty.
Report TheAnorak June 15, 2022 3:49 PM BST
WD Trusty - jockey rode the others to sleep. If you're going to break a losing streak, not a bad idea to do it in a million pound race!
Report Trusty June 15, 2022 3:54 PM BST
Lot of money came for it on here 11.0 in 6.4ish even when Bay Bridge was being backed down to 2.0; which gave me some additional hope!

Frankie misses another start - becoming far too frequent imo!
Report gazza66 June 16, 2022 9:09 AM BST
Well done Trusty. Thanks for the tip.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 16, 2022 11:35 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

A public holiday here (Corpus Christi day) so an afternoon on the sofa and ITV coverage of Royal Ascot for me. Shops are closed and thunderstorms are forecast later so i will not be going far anyway.

Yesterday's RA card didn't look easy, but this afternoon's mirrors Tuesdays (at least in my eyes) with winners a little easier to find, one race in particular.

Regular readers know i wanted to be on Charlie Appleby's Noble Pride for the Coventry on the opening day (subsequently withdrawn on Sunday) but the runner-up and only one to give him a race at Ascot, Walbank could win the G2 Norfolk stakes (14.30). Royal Scotsman was 3L behind him in that race (4.5L behind Noble Pride) and both have bolted up since; adding more substance he finished 3rd in the Coventry, pipped for 2nd in a photo).

Walbank won easily by 7L LTO although he didn't have a lot to beat to be fair, but the time figure was good. Bought for 525,000 guineas at the Breeze Up sales, there's more to come and i think he could turn out decent. It's a nice field with several unbeaten, but i backed earlier and although a tad shorter now (subsequent NR) i feel is a bet.

I was against Stradivarius when he won LTO and i don't think he wins the Gold Cup (4.20). I'm a layer of Sea Silk Road in the Ribblesdale (3.40) who i feel is too short at odds of 3.15. Up in class/trip and with exception of the outsider it looks an open race.

The Queen may not be in attendance, a pity as her runner Reach For the Moon will be at short odds to win an ordinary looking Hampton Court stakes (5.35) and i can't see this one failing to win, but we can all pick these.

Looking for higher odds, if anyone has a strong fancy for the Britannia stakes (5.00) they are better form readers than me, 30 generally unexposed 3 year olds with any amount of improvement, but maybe a win/4TBP on the Andrew Balding trained Koy Koy could turn out profitable. Progressive, looked half-decent winning a Newbury novice in September and may have been a little unlucky in a class 2 handicap at Chester on season debut. RPR has improved with each run and will strip fitter this afternoon, but it's a minefield really.

Elsewhere i thought Fabrique En France (Ffos Las 7.10) a lay and i may put this one up as a PL selection if it's under the 5/2 later.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.

Stewarts Rise

i don't think i'd go to all Andrews trouble to get there and back and have to leave after 4 races.

Not really an issue Stewart, it wasn't as though i came over in the morning and returned the same day just to spend a little under 4 hours at a race-course. I had a nice, relaxing couple of days in London, an English food fix and shopping in Oxford St before Tuesday.

Even if i had returned to Germany a day later i would still have left after the SJP anyway. There were 2 large field handicaps and an open listed race thereafter that i wasn't remotely interested in playing (winners were 14/1, 20/1 and 16/1). My afternoon was always all about Baaeed really and a couple of the guys knew how much i had on, i certainly wasn't coming over just to play a few hundred. I often leave a course early and even when i stay for the full program don't feel the need to bet on every race anyway. I can always watch the VR's later.

As for lack of PL lay selections this year i totally agree with you, only a handful with a small loss to date. Several reasons including workload, time, lack of liquidity early morning and no BF access at work unless i use my smart phone. Additionally, maybe i got into a habit of not posting with a feeling the forum is not as it was (and it is time consuming). As i'm home today i will try to post, i actually have one in mind, Fabrique En France (as mentioned above). To give you an idea of poor liquidity, i could have typed out the reasoning for the above and still not get matched now. If it drifts, it's time wasted.

Trusty

WD with the win selection, hope you made a few quid.
Report happysandwich June 16, 2022 12:34 PM BST
stewarts rise,

I was only larking about (geeing Andrew up) when I posted the link above but I’m sure it works.

There’s 3 potential Lay selections on there today.

Don't go silly on them, it's only a bit of fun.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2022 7:29 PM BST
Lay Post

Newmarket 8.10 - Nizaaka

A 4 year old New Bay filly trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam in Dalham, Suffolk (ex-Roger Varian).
First foal from the dam (listed class) the other offspring a 3 raced maiden filly in France.

Unraced as a 2 year old and lightly raced since (6 runs).

2 average runs in novice stakes (8f) on the AW at Newcastle and Chelmsford in 2022, followed by an outing on turf (7f) at Redcar (form figures of 3-4-3) resulting in rating of 77.

Bumped into a good winner Salaymm in another novice stakes (beaten 7L) at Chelmsford and finally winning one (4/6f) on Wolverhampton off a mark of 72 (dropped 5 lb for the previous run). Whilst she won easily (7L) there was a lot of dead wood in the field and the only winner to come out of the race was the 66/1 runner-up (rated 45) off a subsequent lowly mark of 46, in fact most of them are poor. Thereafter she was sold for 50,000 guineas.

Ran well enough as a 4 year old on handicap debut (mark of 72) 17 days ago for new connections finishing 2nd beaten a short head (5/2f) although the winner could be value for more. The 4th has franked the form winning off 72, albeit dropping down in class.

Only raced on turf twice and both times with soft in the description. Up in class this evening. Raised 3 lb to 75 although the capable jockey takes 5 lb off.

A small field of 5, but a decent field (in context of the class) and a tricky handicap to solve (only 5 lb between thefield on RPR) with a couple of unexposed runners. It could also be a tactical affair as i can’t see where the pace is. If i had to pick the winner i would go for Divine Magic who had a difficult task trying to give 6 lb to Heredia LTO (won the Sandringham handicap earlier).

Being lightly raced, she should improve, but i thought her overall form didn’t warrant being 5/4 in better class, also considering different going and track, even allowing for her low weight, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.40

Good luck all.

17-Jun-22
18:54:08    20:10 Newmarket
Nizaaka - 7f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:271680348341 | Matched: 17-Jun-22 19:13:04    Lay    2.40    50.00    --    70.00
50.00
Matched
Report happysandwich June 17, 2022 7:37 PM BST
Good luck Andrew,

Let's hope this one starts you on a roll.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2022 7:45 PM BST
Happysandwich

Thanks, but it's a risky one.

I haven't posted a lay post in a while, but i thought she was very short in the betting.
Report Bindaree June 17, 2022 9:59 PM BST
Always respect someone who puts their head on the block. Like reading your reasoning even if it doesn't always work out. I think sometimes these up and coming apprentices, the really good ones, tend to make a massive (Jason Weaver talk ) difference.
Report Mr_Spreadsheet June 17, 2022 10:45 PM BST
Unlucky Andrew
Report TheAnorak June 18, 2022 9:04 AM BST
Morning All,

Interesting quiz question for today - in the 4:20, how does a 3-y-old get to be favourite for a race which is officially designated as being for 4-y-olds and upwards?

Yes, it's a southern hemisphere 3-y-old, so doesn't become a 4-y-old until July 1st, but there are long standing accepted weight allowances to accomodate this sort of horse in 3-y-old only races. So why this race and not the Commonwealth Cup?
Report Trusty June 18, 2022 9:33 AM BST
It is a very interesting question as I only use the RP printout which shows it as a 4 yr old!

13 (17) 1284 191-19 L Home Affairs 98 D C Waller AUS100% 1-1 1-1 4 9-5 t 0-00 3-5131 1-4107 3-8131 120 - - 113 134 James McDonald 15-8
Report Manoleeds June 18, 2022 9:36 AM BST
Is the answer that for UK race purposes , you pretend that northern hemisphere rules apply so it was 4 on 1 January 2022? It is logical that it can run as a Northern hemisphere horse born on 18 August 2018 would be a 4 yo
Report TheAnorak June 18, 2022 9:56 AM BST
You may be right, but I've failed to find anything in the race conditions, the official Guide to the Pattern, or on the Racing Admin website which dictates the rules to be applied in this situation.

In Dubai, when they run 3-y-old only races in March, southern hemisphere 3-y-olds run with a significant weight penalty - see this example of the UAE Derby:

https://www.racingpost.com/results/1231/meydan/2022-03-26/807933

where the effectively older southern horses carry an extra 10lbs.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 18, 2022 10:25 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

A temperature of 33c is forecast this afternoon, so no sofa and ITV racing for me, instead i'm off to a small city, Ingolstadt (circa 80 kms north of München) on the banks of the Danube for the day. Never been before, but office colleagues recommended it for it's historical interests, an Audi car museum, military castle and a large shopping 'village' that no doubt my daughter will get lost in.

The last day of Royal Ascot, in my opinion second only to Longchamp Arc weekend as the best flat racing experience in Europe (albeit not to everyone's taste) but it's not without its faults.

On to this afternoons card, it's speed rather than stamina for most of the card with the Jubilee and Wokingham stakes over 6f, supported by the Chesham and Jersey over 7f.

I mentioned to the guys i was with on Tuesday there were 2 bets i really fancied later in the week, the first was Homeless Songs in the Coronation (subsequent NR) although in view of the impressive Inspiral yesterday i'm not overly confident she would he won.

The other was the AOB trained Albert Munnings who runs in the opener (2.30). He was strongly fancied pre-race and looked well above average winning easily at Leopardstown (7f) in his only run even allowing for quality of the opposition. Of course backing any runner in this race has an element of 'intuition' considering they are all unexposed, but in my opinion this well bred colt will win and go on to better things later in the season. I think anything odds against is a bet and will be my only back bet to win at the meeting.

I was surprised new connections of Crypto Force paid £900,000 on Monday, he was lucky to win LTO.

In the Jubilee stakes (4.30) the Australian speedster Home Affairs is probably the rightful favourite but i feel he is over bet based on the way his stablemate Native Strip won here on Tuesday. The match score is 1-1, but the latter was unlucky when they last met and is the better horse. He has to put a poor run at Flemington LTO behind him and although he has a bit in hand on ratings i don't this race is as cut and dried as the betting odds may suggest and would sooner be a layer than a backer.

I think the very pacy Highland Princess drawn on the opposite side could be a win/4TBP bet. Sprinters often improve with age and her form has picked up recently, winning the G2 Duke Of York (6f) easily LTO after a decent class 2 conditions race at Newcastle. She's not a typical 6f sprinter, 8 of her 9 wins have come over 7f but this is a stiff track and she has run well enough here before. Will have to improve again in a G1 but i think she has an EW shout (will be prominent).

Anyone having a strong opinion about the Wokingham (5.00) is a better man than me, but maybe the evergreen 8 year old Gulliver could grab a place at silly odds (run well in this race on a couple of occasions).

Frankie is out of sorts this week and i feel the adverse JG comments are affecting him, so it was good to see him get a winner yesterday, but i think he may have chosen the wrong stable runner in the Golden Gates handicap (5.35). I prefer the improving top-weight Aldous Huxley (weight reduced by the capable 5 lb apprentice) as an EW selection, but just like the couple of pre-mentioned handicap selections, stakes should be at a minimum really.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Bindaree/Mr Spreadsheet

Thank you.

Racing makes fools of us sometimes and last night was no exception in my case. Pre-race it was always a risky lay with the low weight (as i intimated) but at odds of 2.40 i was OK with it. Post-race i regretted it obviously, but unfortunately bookmakers do not pay out on hindsight, a pity as i would be a millionaire if they did. I got it wrong, and it will not be the last time, but this is racing.

Bindaree, i agree about the apprentice jockey in this case, he's decent.

Alan/Trusty/Manoleeds

Thank you for the posts above.

Alan, did you notice that the Andre Fabre/Frankel filly Raclette won at Longchamp on Sunday ? We have discussed this one in the past.
Report TheAnorak June 18, 2022 10:48 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

I hadn't spotted that win for Raclette - I was of course fully occupied last Sunday watching Atheeb run his last race in my colours. Always the risk with buying cheap horses in training, some work out OK, some prove to be hopeless decisions. George Boughey is added to my list of trainers that you shouldn't  buy from!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 19, 2022 11:07 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

The central European heatwave continues, currently 29c on my balcony and 34c forecast for this afternoon, but as so often in such conditions here, thunderstorms will surely follow.

With the RA festival over for another year we revert to typical Sunday cards this afternoon albeit not low grade by any means, there's even a listed race at Pontefract and the Prix De Daine (French Oaks) meeting at Chantilly.

I enjoyed the RA festival (generally do) and performances by Nature Strip, Perfect Power, Inspiral and Candleford to name a few stand out. Baaeed winning the QA was expected and did no more than he had to, the Sussex is his for the taking if Inspiral and Homeless Songs are not in the field as i envisage, although Coroebeus is a worthy rival with his turn of foot.

A profitable meeting for me over the 5 days (albeit not so many bets) but not if i exclude Baaeed; a couple of fancied 2 years olds letting me down although not to heavy stakes.

Horse racings' popular couple Tom and Hollie are both on fancied runners in the French classic, in particular the latter on the JG trained favourite Nashwa (3rd in the Epsom Oaks). She's drawn in 2 close to the rail and whilst this can be deemed a positive, needs to be alert out of the stalls to gain a prominent position early. The final bend is sharp and although there's a long enough straight (3f) to get a good run, there isn't a cutaway. On form she should win, but i'm not backing her.

I'm only interested in one today, The Vollen (Hexham 3.20) who returned to form LTO winning at Sedgefield (24f) off a reduced mark and step up in trip from his previous couple of runs. Won well after clouting the 2nd last and was conceding 19 lb to the runner-up. Raised 2 lb since and a better field this afternoon, but a small win bet for me.

I only watched one race yesterday, the opening Chesham stakes as i backed Alfred Munnings who i expected much better from even if he didn't win. I used Transponder TV on a smart phone and just managed to catch Adele mention something about his antics in the preliminaries and there was a betting odds drift, was the race lost there or is it simply a case of that's how good he is ?

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Alan

I also hadn't noticed Raclette winning (or even running) until i was going through the RP on Friday evening, but i totally understand you had other interests the previous Sunday. Do you plan a replacement for Atheeb ?
Report TheAnorak June 19, 2022 11:52 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

No replacement planned for the short term, although I'm always looking at sales and claiming races on behalf of others, so if I spotted something that would suit that could change. I do have an eye on a horse I was interested in the last time it changed hands, as I'm convinced the current trainer is running it over the wrong trip - if that one appeared in a sale, I'd definitely be bidding.
Report Bindaree June 19, 2022 12:37 PM BST
Regarding Alfred Munnings ( I actually laid it albeit to low stakes just for the fun of it ) I think that is as good as he is on known form. I laid it because the horse it beat just over 4 lengths (Segomo) was in turn comprehensively beaten over 8 lengths next time out. It didn't quite work out as I imagined because the winner from that race Crypto Force finished behind Alfred Munnings but the fact 7 horses beat Segomo suggested the form at face value wasn't too strong. Alfred Munnings didn't exactly finish hard held in it's first race either. Maybe it will leave this form well behind in the future but I would be very wary of betting it until it proves itself which with AOB is always possible.
Report happysandwich June 19, 2022 1:56 PM BST
It's Breeders Day today.

Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 22, 2022 2:18 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A quick post during a coffee coma Wink

I noticed the 3 year old Aga Khan owned filly Suwayra running at Naas (7.10) this evening, one i put up when she ran at Gowan Park LTO (3rd). Won her only 2 year old prior to this and although only finishing 3rd behind the 7/4 f (who re-opposes) it looked as though she needed the run and will be fitter today. She was slowly away, but stayed on well and the extra ½ furlong is a bonus. A better draw than the favourite One For Bobby and at almost a double figure odds on here i thought she was worth a small EW bet.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Alan

Good luck with the sales project if another comes up. It could have been worse i guess, new connections paid £900,000 for the once raced (and lucky winner) Crypto Force early last week (finished unplaced in the Chesham).

Bindaree

WD and i can understand anyone wanting to lay Alfred Munnings at RA (based on your reasoning) but he had been mentioned by AOB weeks ago as one of his better 2 year olds and generally only sends decent types to the Chesham (won it 6 times including 4 of the previous 6 prior to this year). I agree RM kept him up to his work at Leopardstown (teaching him to ‘race’) but he looked good nevertheless. I wouldn’t give up on him just yet and although the first 3 home were outsiders, it may transpire in time they shouldn’t have been. As stated in my post, backing any runner in the race had an element of 'intuition' considering they are all unexposed anyway so my bet wasn’t heavy at all, nor will it be next time if i do play.

I remember your moniker, a decent chaser.
Report Bindaree June 24, 2022 9:57 PM BST
Thanks Andrew, maybe I got lucky this time. I don't usually but I only bet small anyway. I guess the moniker gives a clue to my age. I could also have used Earth Summit !! Bit of a story behind both but don't wish to bore anyone. I always love reading your reasoning, bit like Hugh Taylor in that they can sometimes finish down the field but the guy doesn't try to play safe. Good luck and look forward to your future posts.
Report england_v_south_afri June 24, 2022 10:13 PM BST
What a lovely post !!

Lots of rubbish on the forum but always look out for Andrews posts. Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 25, 2022 9:37 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

A shorter post than often on a Saturday as i’m taking advantage of a special offer by DB (German rail operator) with a low cost ticket valid for all forms of transportation (bus, tram, S-Bahn (metro) and even short/long distance regional trains all over Germany during June, July or August. The only exception being the ICE trains (Inter City Express) but it’s still possible to travel as far north as Hamburg from München for example (just slower). At only 9 euros per calendar month, it’s an incredible bargain and i will not be the only one venturing out this weekend. I will soon be off to central station and simply choose a random city destination on the indicator board.

On to racing and some interesting cards (all flat) with the Irish Derby as a stand out, at least in terms of class and prize money, but not the best field it could have been by any stretch of the imagination. I sense the race has lost a little of its lustre recently compared to bygone years when it was almost commonplace for Epsom Derby winners to contest it, think Nijinsky, Grundy, The Minstrel, Troy and Shergar to name a few. The very classy Australia in 2014 was the last one to do the double, but at the other end of the quality spectrum, Sovereign (2019) only ever won twice (from 15) and the other was an egg and spoon maiden at Galway. Nevertheless, the Epsom 3rd Westover and Oaks winner Tuesday should make it a viewable race and i would be surprised if the winner didn’t come from this pair.  I will not be backing anything, but if i had to make a selection i would just favour the colt over the filly (maybe dutching them is the way to play).

My odds against bet is the Richard Hannon trained 2 year old Kingman filly Minnetonka (Newmarket 2.05) who looked out of the top drawer when winning her only race impressively by 7L at Salisbury with a very good turn of foot late on. What she beat is an unknown as most of the field were making their debut, but on paper alone it may have been a reasonable and visually she was very taking (last 2 furlong sectionals were fast). Same trip with similar ground conditions this afternoon she could win again (odds generally around 7/4).

In the Northumberland Plate handicap, i can’t see Trueshan winning under his mega weight of 10-8, but i wouldn’t be a confident layer, he wasn’t beaten far in the race last year off 118 (5lb claimer on board). Instead, a tentative EW is the very consistent and relatively lightly raced Onesmoothoperator who has course experience and this trip will be more up his street that the 14f at  York LTO. Not the best of draws in 17, but this could be said for several runners at head of the betting. Mind you, any stakes in this race are surely for fun by most players.     

Many eyes will be on the John Gosden and Frankie runners in the forthcoming days/weeks for obvious reasons and i think the latter will have a wry grin on his face after the Criterion stakes (Newmarket 3.15) as the likely favourite Sunray Major will not be winning in my opinion (already layed). Who knows, maybe the classic Lester Piggott quote ‘Miss me’ will be resurrected (the oldies will remember this). Wink

Laying a George Broughty runner is fraught with risk these days, but i wouldn’t want to be lumping on Novello (Chester 3.10) at odds of 11/10. Granted he ran well enough at Royal Ascot LTO, but he’s very much hit and miss as a 3 year old (last turf win in May 2021 on this course). A trappy handicap to my eyes and although the handicapper has relented a little by dropping him a pound to 89 and he has the plum draw i would sooner be a layer than a backer.

I can review the RP again on the train, so maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Bindaree/England v SA

Many thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated.

I guess many of the more prominent posters on here are no longer Spring Chickens (me included) and i certainly remember the chaser Earth Summit (and many before him).

I totally agree there is a lot of tosh posted and the forum is not what is was, many decent guys have left, but thankfully there are still several handfuls of knowledgeable and helpful posters well worth a read. Conversely, there is one continuing to search for the holy grail of systems (and will be doing so long after everyone has left and switched the lights off) and another akin to a modern day Robin Hood and his 4 (or is it 5) merry men, or should i say ‘guru’s (i don’t buy any of it). Mind you, they are harmless enough and it’s good for daily entertainment value. Some may remember the poster Burkey (he had several profile names) who was clueless and exaggerated to the nth degree, but there were occasions he seriously made me laugh, i actually miss him Laugh
Report timberman June 25, 2022 7:48 PM BST
Thanks for your thoughts as always Andrew, just wondering did you do anyone outright at Wimbledon?
Report TheAnorak June 26, 2022 9:51 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

I was at Newmarket yesterday and had gone there with Minnetonka as my nap - she ran remarkable fractions at Salisbury, including a final furlong faster than the 4-y-old that won the 6F Listed race half an hour later. But I wasn't taken with her in the paddock, as she's quite small and the politest thing you'd could say about her would be 'pocket rocket'. There were several others in the field that have much more size and scope. She again failed to impress going to post and I made no bet on the race. Her performance left me wondering if this had come too soon after Salisbury and that she needed longer to recover from that big effort on debut.

Sunray Major didn't look happy with the first time cheekpieces in the paddock, edgy and needing two handlers.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 27, 2022 9:55 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

Back in my aerospace slave pit after a weekend visiting a couple of Bavarian cities via DB rail/special summer ticket (mentioned in my post on Saturday).

I didn’t see much TV racing at all, a few races i was particularly interested in (including Irish Derby and Northumberland) but didn’t play in these, in fact i only had 3 bets all weekend. A small losing day on Saturday (back and lay) but recovered with a bet on the AOB filly Statuette yesterday (sorry for the after-timing, but she was 4/6). I expected her to win, but she was more workmanlike as opposed to the impressive run at Navan, although i thought she would pick up the front 2 after the furlong pole. Maybe the rain softened going wasn’t to her liking and although it took her a while to go by them, she lengthened well late on and i think she could be useful, maybe even a Guineas filly. Will she stay 8f in G1 company though.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.   

Timberman

I’m certainly not a tennis expert, but it’s a sport i have followed for many years, albeit mainly the grand slams and bet on it occasionally. You may have picked up on my French Open post(s) hence the question, but although i was confident Iga Swiatek would win in Paris (for the reasons stated) i wouldn’t be as confident about her in South West London. Grass v clay are chalk and cheese in the tennis world (fast v slow respectively) and although there are those that excel on both surfaces, several are much better on the latter, Nadal being a typical example.

Wimbledon has lost Barty after her retirement, Osaka due to injury, Russian and Belarusian players are exempt from entering, Serena is not the player she once was and injuries have impacted a few that could feasibly win. Iga was a revelation in Paris (for the 2nd time) winning several games to love and only dropping a single set, in fact she’s only dropped 2 in her last 58 matches and is currently on a 35 game winning streak. She’s only 21, the world number 1, youngest in the top 10, has a relatively easy draw in the earlier rounds and is the rightful favourite by far. So what is there not to like ? I can see her winning many more clay competitions, but she’s a bit of an unknown on grass due to inexperience. Won the juniors there, but has only played 8 slam games on grass (winning 4) since.

Looking at the opposition, it’s difficult to predict who her main rivals are although there’s a couple of decent youngsters in Jabeur and Guaff. Serena is now 40 and been out of the game due to motherhood, she can’t win and i would also be against Kvitova, Kerber and Sakkari. Our Emma has no chance and could even go out in the first round tomorrow (she’s 4/7 to win).

I think Iga Swiatek could win (based on her class alone) but 13/8 is a bit skinny knowing her inexperience on grass so maybe a trade/taking the profit at semi-final stage (depending on how she has played in the preceding rounds) is the way to play. If there is an outsider Simona Halep (won in 2019) who is ranked 16 and steadily getting back into the game after injury (and mental health issues) may be the answer. At a best priced 18/1 (Korals) she could be worth a small bet to win outright/get to the final (drawn to meet Iga in the semi’s). Good luck whatever you play.

Alan

Thanks for the post.

I was disappointed with Minnetonka, even if she didn’t win i expected her to run much better, but as you say maybe the run came too quickly. I doubt it was her true running as she looked decent at Salisbury. I backed her, albeit a sensible stake and recovered over half back on the lay of Sunray Major. 

When you mentioned pocket rocket i immediately thought of another filly from bygone days, Lyric Fantasy.
Report brigust1 June 27, 2022 12:03 PM BST
Hi Andrew. I am also a Simona Halep fan. She did me a huge favour when she won Wimbledon and beat Serena Williams. She was higher ranked than SW but was the outsider. The commentators were saying at the time how grass suits her game so well when compared with the other surfaces so I have been waiting for her to return to Wimbledon. I am not saying she can beat Iga who looks tremendous but I hope to see her win something at Wimbledon this year but she has had problems and I will make sure I don't back what I won in 2019.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 29, 2022 12:30 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys

Laurie

Easy wins by Simona Halep and Iga Swiatek yesterday were not unexpected and there are harder tasks ahead of course. Using racing terms, Iga hit a bit of a flat spot in the 2nd set, recovered well, but she can't afford to do that against better quality. Both play tomorrow and should progress again, but i was surprised to see Simona quoted at 16/1 (WH) earlier (since gone) but 14/1 still up with Sky. I've backed each to win outright, but not significantly. Good luck. 

Alan

Good luck with Love Dreams and the step up in trip to 10f at Newbury tomorrow, should be interesting. Almost walking distance from home for you Wink
Report TheAnorak June 30, 2022 9:36 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

Thanks - annoying that we have to take on a horse running off the same mark he won from last week, thanks to the stupid rule about no penalty for apprentice handicap winners and the 19th century speed of the handicap mark updating process. Given he's now officially rated 76, runs here off 69 minus a 5lb claim, what happens to the mark of a horse that manages to beat him this evening? I stand by my view that Phil Smith has done more to damage racing than any other individual this century. His failure to make any effort to update the process he controlled for 20 years was inexcusable - and his successor seems just as bad.
Report Trusty June 30, 2022 10:28 AM BST
The fav does not have any back to back wins in his history and just may not be suited to running so quickly again. The Godolphin horse must have a chance re-united with Kirby but 8/1 was an e/w to nothing whereas 5/1 is not so appealing! If the favourite is beaten the handicapper cannot take a literal view imvho. Good luck with your runner.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 30, 2022 11:54 AM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Alan/Trusty

Thanks for the posts. The favourite is short enough (for reasons explained above) and will probably go close, but not a bet for me (i wouldn't lay it either).

Love Dreams has run well at Newbury before and he's down to class 5 after a couple of runs in 3, but will he stay the 10f (stays on well over 8f). When i looked through the field earlier i thought Pledge Of Honour was an EW bet, but it's a trappy handicap. Good luck Alan, hope he runs well/wins for you, i will watch the LV with interest.
Report brigust1 June 30, 2022 12:13 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew. I am off to Sandown Park tomorrow, for 2 days. I only heard at around 9.30, but it was great to hear.

Halep plays later but harder tasks lay ahead I think. Because she is in this group does that mean she will have to play Swiatek and or Kvitova?
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 30, 2022 12:50 PM BST
Afternoon Laurie,

Have a fantastic day out at Sandown on Saturday, i hope they treat you well and memories of BG come flooding back. Happy

Assuming both women progress, Simona Halep will meet Petra Kvitova in the 4th round, thereafter Iga Swiatek in the semi's.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 30, 2022 12:51 PM BST
I typed Saturday instead of tomorrow (Eclipse in my head)  Sad
Report brigust1 June 30, 2022 1:41 PM BST
It is going to be tough those last rounds for all three I think.

Thank you Andrew, I will. And if anyone is passing by I will be in the main bar area just down from the Brigadier Gerard bar.
Report Trusty June 30, 2022 8:52 PM BST
@TheAnorak if you care to divulge, was Probert's instructions really to lead so far out when trying a new longer distance? Not sure anything learnt from that run. Also well away from stalls but still too far out wide round the bend. Lost Gold also ran very disappointing would imagine Godolphin will be disposing of very shortly.
Report TheAnorak July 1, 2022 8:35 AM BST
No that wasn't the plan, but he came so quickly out of the stalls that plans A, B and C were all doomed after fifty yards. As you suggest, we're none the wiser on whether he stays 10F. I noticed Lost Gold in the unsaddling area being checked over by the course vet, who was holding a stethoscope to his heart - horse was blowing hard.
Report Trusty July 1, 2022 8:52 AM BST
Thanks for sharing, I think I would probably try again.

"The representative of Saeed bin Suroor reported that LOST GOLD (IRE), unplaced, was unsuited by the track and would prefer to run on the all-weather."
Report Andrew.in.Sweden July 2, 2022 10:48 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Another Saturday and that means an array of meetings in UK and Ireland, most of them average at best, but Haydock and Sandown are not, in particular the latter dominated by the Coral Eclipse. Further away, David O’Meara sends a sole runner, Love Interest to Chantilly for a small listed race and tomorrow Hamburg stages the German Derby with several UK based jockeys including Frankie and Hollie taking up rides.

On to this afternoon and the Eclipse (3.35) a race steeped in history with a roll call of winners so long i don’t have time to mention them all, but Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars, Golden Horn and Enable just to name a handful gives you an idea of the quality. No such runner of similar status in this afternoons field, but a decent one nevertheless, although the pace angle is a quandary. I can never understand trainers not using pacemakers, they were common back in time.

Immediately after Vadeni won the Prix Du Jockey Club (10.5f) i thought he could be a decent rival to Desert Crown if this one ran here and without that one in the field, he could be difficult to beat in receipt of 10 lb, although i feel it’s quite an open race. The pace will have a significant bearing on who wins, but it could play into the hands of 2 or 3 of these and i see the turn of foot of the French challenger winning the day. I appreciate things went his way at Chantilly, but I think he’s decent. Irrespective of who wins, let’s wish the poster Brigust1 (ex-BG groom) who is attending a wonderful afternoon on the 50th anniversary of the great horse in this race.

My banker of the day runs early and hopefully sets me up for the afternoon although bets and stakes will be few and sensible. The horse in question is the Johnny Murtagh trained 2 year old filly Silmaniya in the opener at Naas (1.25). She’s come up against a few decent ones in her 2 runs to date and the step back to 5f is in her favour. A couple of the newcomers come from top stables, but i think the trip is too sharp for each and both have inside draws (not the best on soft going here). Around even money i think she will win, although being allocated as my nap selection in the forum competition is a penalty Wink

For money buyers, surely Auguste Rodin at the same meeting (4.18) will get just reward for an unlucky run on debut, but odds (currently 1/2) will reflect this.

In the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock (2.40) i think Stay Alert is a tentative EW selection based on a good penultimate run behind subsequent French Oaks winner Nashwa and a win in a Newbury listed race LTO. Lightly raced, improving, the step up in trip could bring be a bonus and in receipt of 12 lb from all the field bar one, she may run a good race (best priced 13/2 with the books). More rain would improve her chances.

For layers Ham and Jam (Leicester 2.45) is a valid selection (to my eyes at least). Ran well enough (ish) LTO finishing 4th on handicap debut, but did wander and soft going this afternoon is also a question mark. Odds of 6/4 are too short.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report GLASGOWCALLING July 2, 2022 11:40 AM BST
Good luck to us both on Stay Alert Andrew, have backed the win with a place to save my stake. Happy
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