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Andrew.in.Sweden
09 Jan 22 08:31
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Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 5,260 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys,

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it (readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar.

Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post race (i neglected this in latter part of 2021).

The first 4 threads (2 in 2018) were profitable with a total gain of £2242 (pre-commission) to a level £50 stake (breakdown below). I didn't replicate this level in 2021, in fact i consider it a poor effort on my part and only 28 P/L selections in the year (workload often gets in the way). Compare this to 2018 when there were 66 in 70 consecutive days (4 x NR's) although i had far more time on my hands in those days.

Pre-commission there was sufficient profit in 2021 to buy a Toblerone bar and a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. To negate this in 2022 whenever a lay(s) is/are posted, one of them will be titled Lay Post and subject to a running P/L (as previous threads).

As on all my lay threads everyone is more than welcome to post on whatever topic, horse racing or otherwise, banter is a bonus and all i politely request is no bickering or trolling please. It was noticeable on the previous couple of threads there are those that like to antagonise and dispute posted facts, replying with infantile reasoning (and untruths) but sadly this is a reflection of social media we know today.

My previous lay threads record

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Andrews 2021 Lay Thread (reduced selections)
I will scroll back, update the thread and post here.

Good luck to all readers in 2022.

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Replies: 798
By:
Eborman
When: 09 Jan 22 08:39
AIS

Here's to a successful, profitable and enjoyable 2022 thread!!

Keep 'em coming Grin
By:
steelers68
When: 09 Jan 22 09:29
Good luck in 2020, always follow the best thread on here, just never posted.
By:
second again
When: 09 Jan 22 13:07
I would price you up at 1/10 to be in front at the end of the year Andrew,maximum bet 50p,good luck with the thread this year.
By:
happysandwich
When: 09 Jan 22 13:22
steelers68 09 Jan 22 09:29
   
Good luck in 2020, always follow the best thread on here, just never posted.

^
Two years too late.

I've heard of after timers but that one takes the biscuit. Laugh
By:
Mr_Spreadsheet
When: 09 Jan 22 14:00
Thanks Andrew - Here's to a profitable 2022!
By:
steelers68
When: 10 Jan 22 07:34

Jan 9, 2022 -- 1:22PM, happysandwich wrote:


steelers68 09 Jan 22 09:29

By:
steelers68
When: 10 Jan 22 07:37
Sorry 2022, must be the effect of long covid on my memory.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 10 Jan 22 09:54
Morning All,

I hope Andrew won't me mind me jumping the gun and offering up my first lay of the year - which is Dr T L Eckleburg in the Ludlow 12:45. If you go through his flat form, you'll find several comments along the lines of 'weakened final furlong' and even when he won his last flat start at Ayr, he was reported as 'edged right final furlong'.

I reckon those are indications of what we saw on his hurdle debut at Newbury, where he looked a serious danger going to the last, but to my eyes, was completely unwilling to go past the leader and eventual winner. He carried his head rather high and hung fire, and I wonder if there's a physical problem which affects him when under pressure.

Whatever the reason, he's one to take on when offered at such a short price (currently around 1.9). He was also a fairly careful jumper at Newbury, not a trait suited to the three close hurdles in the home straight at Ludlow.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Jan 22 11:55
Afternoon Alan,

Absolutely no problem you posting a suggested lay, the year is 10 days old and i haven't posted one yet (moving apartment partly responsible) but this is only temporary.

I wish you luck, but not too much as it's my nap in the daily competition.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Jan 22 11:56
Thanks guys for all the comments above Alans post, much appreciated.
By:
JV
When: 10 Jan 22 15:33
Hi Andrew, I have recently returned to betting after a few years off and have found your posts very informative and an excellent read. Good luck for this year.
By:
happysandwich
When: 10 Jan 22 22:11
^
I have recently returned to betting after a few years off . . .

JV,

It’s like the French Foreign Legion on here – we don’t ask questions.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 11 Jan 22 08:54
So we'll have to wait for another day to see how Dr T J Eckleburg performs under pressure - wd Andrew, a comfortable nap that never looked like being beaten by the only other trier! Quite how the ride on Illico Des Places escaped the attention of the stewards will remain a mystery.

And just a look ahead to the coming weekend, when it seems that the Irish aren't willing to wait for Cheltenham. Gordon Elliott has multiple entries at Kempton and Warwick, including nine in the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. Emmet Mullins has two entered in the £100k Lanzarote and it will interesting to see what the UK handicapper makes of them - bookies clearly think they'll be let in leniently, as both are quoted at 5/1.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 11 Jan 22 11:35
Another monkey won yesterday - Fox Tal 6:00 Wolves.

Carrying his head high in the lead from start to finish, but he seemed to putting it in.

He was still too good for them.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 11 Jan 22 18:41
Good evening Guys,

I have a possible lay selection this evening, but a few responses first before i decide whether to post it.

JV

Thank you for the kind words.

Happysandwich

LaughLaugh

Alan

Dr T J Eckleburg won well enough although i doubt the form amounts to much, it was a poor field. I needed the nap selection to win, a poor run this month, but another up today helps. I don't take it too seriously anyway. Thanks for the Irish information.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 11 Jan 22 18:53
Lay Post

Wolverhampton 7.20 - Harry Three

A 3 year old Adaay colt trained by Clive Cox in Lambourn, Berkshire.

Dam was a 5 race maiden, several offspring with a couple of winners (including Harry Three) Diligent Harry being better of the two (now rated 109). 

Lightly raced although this could be stated for the field. 2 runs, 2 wins in class 5 novice stakes, both races over 6f on the AW at Kempton.

Overall form is average for the class, only 4 winners amongst the beaten rivals (previous and since) albeit none of any note. Wasn’t really fancied on debut and usually Clive’s better ones are, but he won well enough (cosily to be fair).

Was 1/8f in his next run, but backers may have been a little nervous at one stage, before he got on top in the last half-furlong.

Yet to race on Tapeta and up in class (3). A small field of 5 (4 of them making handicap debut) and although i can’t see the bottom weight winning, it wouldn’t be a mega shock. Ignoring this one, there’s only 10 lb between the field and any of them could win, it’s quite a competitive handicap. RPR has them even closer. Faces a decent rival in the filly, Fearless Angel who wasn’t disgraced in a listed race at Newbury in August (since won a 5f class 5 novice on this course).

Drawn in stall 5, and i think Apache Star will cut across to the rail from 3 and take the field along with Spring Is Sprung.

A risky lay to start the year, unbeaten in a couple of novices, but a mark of 89 is not thrown in by any means. Odds of 2.70 are short enough in this field, he could be tested and i don’t feel he will be winning this evening, hence the lay selection.

Good luck all.

Lay @ 2.70

11-Jan-22
17:49:47    19:20 Southwell
Harry Three - 6f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:255610667254 | Matched: 11-Jan-22 17:49:47    Lay    2.70    50.00    --    85.00
50.00
Matched
By:
fife
When: 11 Jan 22 18:59
You had me fooled for a while when you said WolverhamptonGrin
By:
mitolo
When: 11 Jan 22 19:01
ball of chalk underway.. already laid it at 2.58. will only go green if its beat and let it ride it wins.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 11 Jan 22 19:01
Old saying always back a horse till it loses.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 11 Jan 22 19:02
Sorry Guys, Southwell 7.20

It's been a long day Laugh
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 11 Jan 22 19:09
19:20 Southwell.
That's a hard race to take a firm view about.
I think Apache Star might spring a surprise.
I agree with the lay.
By:
happysandwich
When: 11 Jan 22 19:18
Good luck with Harry Three in the 7:20, Andrew .

Hope it gets your thread off to a good start

I won’t be having a bet on it because I had a stroke of luck when my computer played up while I was trying to Lay Southwell 5:50 Lammas
1st 100/30 BFSP 5.71 and I don’t want to ride my luck.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 11 Jan 22 19:23
Good lay Andrew.
By:
happysandwich
When: 11 Jan 22 19:25
God bless the Queen

She knows when one of her sujects needs a little help Laugh
By:
Mr_Spreadsheet
When: 11 Jan 22 19:57
well done Andrew! Great start to the year!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 12 Jan 22 13:58
Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the comments after my lay post, much appreciated.

Harry Three was well backed late on (13/8f) but didn’t run as those odds may have suggested pre-race, only beating the outsider of 5 home. To be fair, he may not have had the best of runs in the last ½ furlong, but prior to this was being hard ridden and it’s unlikely he would have won whatever the circumstances, he wasn’t picking up all that well on the Tapeta anyway. It was always a risky selection being a 2 raced, unbeaten, Clove Cox trained colt, but i felt his winning form wasn’t that strong and he was up in class in a reasonable field.

Good to start the 2022 thread off on a winning note (or losing depending which way you look at it) and hopefully i can continue.

I started the 2021 thread started with a lay of 11/8f Rohaan (we all know this horse) who was going for a 4-timer. He finished 2nd off a mark of 85 that day and ended the season on 114, winning a couple of group races in the process, but i very much doubt Harry Three will do as well, although it’s early days of course.

Although it was a winning day for me, it certainly wasn’t for racing per se with news that the AOB trained filly Snowfall suffered an injury in her box and had to be put down. As a 3 year old, she was at the opposite end of the spectrum compared to the previous season winning her first 4 races, the Group 3 Musidora followed by 3 Group 1’s, and her Epsom Oaks win by 16L will live in the memory forever, even the great Frankel never won a classic by such a distance (although he gave it a good try in the 2000 guineas).

I was at Longchamp for Arc Trails day last September and saw her run in the Prix Vermeille where she finished a disappointing runner-up. Whilst i thought Frankie was too confident in the race (and too far off the pace) i also felt she wasn’t the same filly compared to previous months and looked as though she had done enough for the season. She ran admirably in the Arc on heavy going (finishing 6th) thereafter, but was never going to win that race and bowed out gracefully in the Fillies and Mares stakes at Ascot (3rd). As a daughter of Deep Impact and related to another good filly in Found she would probably have had a decent career as a broodmare.

RIP

Looking forward to Ascot next Saturday (22nd) and there's a good chance i'll be coming over to UK and meeting up with a couple of posters (as before). The reason being there is an anticipated clash between Shishkin and Energumene on the cards, although how many of us believe it will occur, not me for one. I suspect Nicky will take him out and use the Game Spirit (Newbury) in February as a stepping stone to Cheltenham. Whatever the case, i want to be on Shishkin when they do meet eventually.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

2022 Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 1/1
Running Form W
Daily Profit £50
Running P/L +£50
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 13 Jan 22 18:51
Good evening Guys,

No lay this evening but there is a runner that may be worth a small W/3TBP bet in the getting out stakes (7.30).

Trevie Fountain has a poor winning strike rate (2/28) but both were on the AW (Tapeta) and over 7f (tonights trip) in better grade (albeit in December 2020). Ran well enough LTO finishing 2nd and his recent runs are an improvement on those last Autumn. The drop in trip should also help.

Stall 7 could be better but if Hollie can get a prominent position early (and keep a straight line) he may have enough in reserve to take this. Acting on Polytrack is an unknown but odds of 5.9/2.16 are about right in a poor field.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 13 Jan 22 19:07
Would appear, Million Reasons in your way for the win part,gl
By:
madhatters
When: 13 Jan 22 19:36
WD AIS
Wheres the 22 Back thread ? Grin
By:
PHS
When: 13 Jan 22 20:32
WD AndrewCool.

Somehow missed this and yesterday's LaySad.
By:
gazza66
When: 13 Jan 22 23:09
AIS I am going to Huntingdon tomorrow with my son any suggestions or guidance would be appreciated
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Jan 22 09:40
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the comments.

Trevie Fountain (100/30) won easily eventually, although everything that could have gone wrong in the race, did so. Slowly away, bumped, only one rival behind him before the bend, a wall of horses in front thereafter, switched out wide, but when he saw daylight absolutely flew home, drawing away to win by 3L under a decent ride from Hollie. Clearly best in the race, although it was a poor field as i mentioned. He will not be on a mark of 47 next time out, so could be hard to win with in the near future, but is certainly running better of late.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Madhatters

A 100% record with backs and lays of this thread, so perhaps i should close shop for this year. Laugh

Gazza66

I guess i don’t need to touch on the Huntingdon course/configuration per se (you probably know it anyway). Flat and fast, suits the speedier type, specially ex-flat runners. Nicky and Nico have a very good winning strike rate there with hurdlers (31% and 33% respectively in the past 5 years) but their sole runner in this discipline doesn’t look a likely winner.

Some famous NH names are associated with Huntingdon in bygone years, Wayward Lad, Remittance Man, Desert Orchid, Edredon Bleu and Best Mate to name a few.

I looked through the card last night and whilst it’s OK (without going overboard) if i was at the course i would probably only be interested in a couple of the races, in particular the limited handicap chase (2.00). Only 4 runners, very open (any of them can win) but i think Mahlers Promise is the one to be on (generally 11/4 with the books). 4 runs over fences with form figures of 2-1-2-2 and he may have been a little unlucky in his penultimate race. Jumps well enough (the occasional sketchy one). Receives weight from a couple and i think he will make all the running.

I would be a layer of Barbados Blue in this field.

My other interest was in the Juvenile hurdle (2.30) best race of the day in terms of class and prize money. Gary Moore does well with his ex-French runners and Kotmask won easily on UK debut at Fontwell last month, a performance probably around the 120 mark. Drops down in trip. May be better than an average juvenile but will have to be as it’s a decent field. Currently around 5/2.

I wouldn’t be lumping on either (they are more tentative fancies) but if only one wins, a profit is gained. I must add that Mahlers Promise is my nap in the daily competition, so it’s already lumbered with a penalty. Wink

If Alan is looking in maybe he could also add better input. Good luck and enjoy the day with your son.
By:
Lampus
When: 14 Jan 22 12:19
Thank you ANDREW Happy

G/L
By:
Trusty
When: 14 Jan 22 13:49
What is your reason for the lay of Barbados Blue? I know Henderson's horses have been running very poorly but they win when they are wanted an he has a 2/2 win record in this race?
By:
gazza66
When: 14 Jan 22 13:56
Thanks very much for your thoughts AIS. Greatly appreciated
By:
Trusty
When: 15 Jan 22 07:26
You were right about the lay, I am sure it is not just that his horses are running like drains and WD with the G Moore winner, you are becoming something of G Moore groupie!

GL today been looking for a short priced lay but not found one I want to play yet although Mr Fisher is maybe another Hendo loser in the 2.05.
By:
gazza66
When: 15 Jan 22 10:59
Thanks very much for your advice AIS, it is always good when you go to the races and get a winner. It certainly contributed to an enjoyable day.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 22 11:45
Good morning Guys,

Thank you for the posts.

An afternoon in the city (my new area of residence) with friends yesterday and i didn't have a bet until the last at Chelmsford (a lay).

An average Sunday racing in UK albeit much better quality in a graded card at Punchestown where we get chance to get a look at a couple of Cheltenham festival prospects in Dysart Dynamo and Bob Olinger at a minimum. Both should win although i wouldn't be lumping on the first one and it wouldn't surprise me if his stablemate won.

Speaking of Cheltenham, the envisaged and anticipated duel between Shishkin and Energuemene (Champion Chase) could occur much sooner if the interview with Nicky Henderson yesterday is anything to go by, but will it. The muted race is the Clarence House at Ascot on Saturday, but i have my doubts it will really happen although i wouldn't bet on it. I still have a feeling Nicky will pull it out and go for the Game Spirit at Newbury next month just as his illustrious pair Sprinter Sacre and Altior did in the past.

If it does happen, i would love to come over to my favourite UK course and although chances are slim, not entirely out of the question. One thing is sure, i will be backing Shishkin to beat Energumene, decent though he is, albeit not to recent Constitution Hill stake level.

Regular readers may remember i put up the WPM trained NH rules newcomer Vauban as a EW for the Triumph Hurdle recently (16/1 at the time) and mentioning it could be a trade if he won his maiden. Very well backed on debut that day (odds against the evening before, SP of 4/9) but narrowly beaten by Pied Piper although he may have won with a better jump at the final flight.

His next run is in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown (Saturday February 5th) during Dublin festival weekend; intended runners include Pied Piper and the unbeaten Fil Dor so he needs to win for his ante post odds to tumble. I noticed earlier those odds are much the same as they were pre-debut race although i have added a little more to my own stake at a slightly better price.

On to this afternoon and to be honest i didn't have a strong opinion about anything really, but i will be playing a small W/2TBP stake on Stainsby Girl (14.40). 16f is probably her ideal trip and 19f on heavy going stretched her LTO, although she ran well enough in 2nd (beaten 1.25L) and the winner has gone in again. Runs off 118 and has won off 120 before (twice). Receiving a fair bit of weight and i think she will make all the running. Odds of 6.2 have gone, but anything around 5.0 is worth a bet.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Trusty

Laugh @ Gary Moore groupie. I understand why you mentioned this (tongue in cheek) but it's simply coincidence i've put up a few of his runners recently.

I'm actually a Nicky Henderson and WPM fan if i had to pick a couple of stables although i didn't fancy Barbados Blue on Friday. Nothing to do with stable form and to be honest was it so bad before yesterday anyway. I think we get used to Nicky having a good strike rate at this time of the year (now 8/40, but 3/27 before yesterday) and although the latter number is lower than punters expect, many trainers would be happy with 11%.

Barbados Blue generally runs on sharp tracks and is better setting the pace but i had doubts she would with Mahler's Promise in the field. I also think she needs further to show her best (hurdle/chase wins over 21f) and with less juice in the ground (all 3 wins on good). She was on a mark on 129, but previous win was off 121. These negatives as a collective, (some less significant than others) made her a lay in my opinion and if she had been under odds 5/2 i would have been posted it as a P/L selection. She was 13/8 tissue price the previous evening.

Gazza66

Thank you for the kind comments, it wasn't so much advice, but simply a tentative opinion (for the backs) but i'm happy it helped towards a nice day at the races. I've been to the town, but not the course.
By:
Lampus
When: 16 Jan 22 12:14
Thank you ANDREW  Happy
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