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workrider
24 Dec 21 12:09
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Date Joined: 29 Jun 02
| Topic/replies: 31,798 | Blogger: workrider's blog
A very strong Irish challenge this year and a pulsating race in store.
M Indo is the class act and on ratings should win , but if all ratings were correct there would be no bookies. This is a very good horse indeed , apart from falling early on at Leopardstown he has been a model performer and his D.R. pipe opener should have him reaching his peak for this . Rachel a huge plus though Jack is no mean pilot but she knows the horse well.
Willie is double barrelled and means business , his best chance is with A F. it appears but T.Flyer is no back number and deserves respect . A. F. jumping is of grave concern and he usually puts in a  fence shuddering one along the way , but this fellow has a huge engine if getting around safely will be in the mix.
T.Flyer is a nearly horse but he also has every chance of causing a upset to the proceedings .
My verdict is a Irish 123 in the following order . M.Indo T. Flyer . A.F...Opinions welcome...
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Report strontium December 24, 2021 12:26 PM GMT
Hi Workrider,

I greatly respect your opinions and I know you tipped MI for the Gold Cup against the crowd, but I can't see this. First, I think MI is a Cheltenham horse - his record at other courses is rather ordinary. Kempton is a supreme test of jumping, which is AF's weak suit. I also think you underestimate Clan des Obeaux, who is probably the best 3 mile chaser in training (as opposed to 3 m 2 1/2 f at Cheltenham) and mops up Grade 1s at around 3 miles. I would be most surprised if he is out of the three.
Report sixtwosix December 24, 2021 12:31 PM GMT
Nothing wrong with batting for the home team but ......not a chance in a million of that happening , to suggest that none of of CDO , Frodon and Chantry House will at least place .... more chance of no Irish horses placing ....looking forward to this thread updates post race.
Report workrider December 24, 2021 12:45 PM GMT
Afternoon Sttontium and thanks for the reply, M.Indo should have no problem with Kempton and his jumping apart from that Leop slip up is brilliant , plus he has won going right handed . On the other side of the racing coin and from  observation CDO is to me a bit of a in and out performer and you are never really sure which one will appear on the day, though the figures in front of his name tell a different story , whereas M.Indo is very consistent and is the highest rated in the race. I personally think the British horses are not as good as the Irish . As we know its a game of opinions . I think CDO win at Punchestown came at the right time for him and he got his ground and Album is passed it plus Envoy ran no sort of race on the day..Frodon is a solid honest horse who had its G.Cup at D.R..
Report strontium December 24, 2021 1:37 PM GMT
This is CDO's Gold Cup and Nicholls will have him spot on for it. MI's Gold Cup is, er, the Gold Cup. Frankly, it would be no shock if either wins, its an open race. But I would be surprised if TF beats CDO. I do agree with you that the Irish as a group are better than the Brits, but CDO is the standout Brit (away from Cheltenham).
Report Dr Crippen December 24, 2021 5:28 PM GMT
Clan Des Obeaux is in good form and I think it will win.
Report impossible123 December 24, 2021 8:56 PM GMT
I'd like to see Lostintranslation win on his Gold Cup 3rd form. But, will he? I think CDO has had his last chance last season when his jockey was tracking the wrong stable companion. Anyone keen on Chantry House ought to snap up with Gold Cup price prior to the race.

Minella Indo for me too. Win or lose a major change from Irish trainers running their charges here.
Report Fashion Fever December 24, 2021 9:00 PM GMT
my weather got 15 mm forecast tonight
Report windsor knot December 24, 2021 9:48 PM GMT
i'm not keen on minella's people reaching for headgear ....we shall see . small punt on chanrty house for me .
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 24, 2021 10:58 PM GMT
I’ll go with 1st Saint Calvados, 2nd Tornado Flyer, 3rd Minella Indo for a massive tricast Which I reckon is about 1200/1.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 24, 2021 10:58 PM GMT
I’ll go with 1st Saint Calvados, 2nd Tornado Flyer, 3rd Minella Indo for a massive tricast Which I reckon is about 1200/1.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 24, 2021 10:58 PM GMT
I’ll go with 1st Saint Calvados, 2nd Tornado Flyer, 3rd Minella Indo for a massive tricast Which I reckon is about 1200/1.
Report impossible123 December 25, 2021 11:12 AM GMT
My £5 free bet has gone on Rachel. I hope she wins - more hope than confidence.
Report EastLower Gooner December 26, 2021 12:53 AM GMT
Thought Minella would be a bit too strong here.

Looked like he spent the summer with Boris at his chesse n wine parties with that pot belly he was sporting. Maybe he did…Can’t really tell the difference with ol Carrie.

Anyways it was a pleasing run considering…fitness was the biggest problem the last day…should be tip top today.  So happy to back him.

I think if you like AF then maybe look for a Faller Insurance market. Generally 5/1 in that market.
Report Flemenstar December 26, 2021 1:04 AM GMT
a quick summary

Irish Racing good.

English Racing bad.
Report Cupwinkcook December 26, 2021 7:09 AM GMT
Asterion and Chantry strong in the market this morning
bits and pieces for Tornado Flyer

Frodon weak

big news is that Minella Indo has drifted badly
Report sageform December 26, 2021 8:15 AM GMT
Still just a small ante post Chantry at 7 but I will only be confident he is running when the tapes go up. We had 8 hours of steady rain yesterday where I live so I will be surprised it is not soft at Wincanton.
Report strontium December 26, 2021 3:14 PM GMT
Hope you had a few cents on TF for the win, Workrider.
Report sageform December 26, 2021 3:16 PM GMT
The jinx on Henderson chasers continues.
Report Dr Crippen December 26, 2021 3:41 PM GMT
W P Mullins to the stewards room.
Report strontium December 26, 2021 3:42 PM GMT
Pushing MI out to 10/1 for the Gold Cup looks an overreaction for a horse that loves Cheltenham.
Report workrider December 26, 2021 3:45 PM GMT
Minella very disappointing and I was amazed Rachel took Frodon on early bad ride imo. Ireland should have been 1st and 2nd pity about the last fence fall of A.F...
Report impossible123 December 26, 2021 4:03 PM GMT
I think Minella Indo is not as good as he was last year (her last run was ordinary too) or something amiss. As for Chantry House will he even show up?
Report workrider December 26, 2021 4:07 PM GMT
Impossible you could be right , c/ps were a giveaway but the money said other thing . Overall hugely disappointing , I'll give him one more chance though I already have A Plus Tard down as the Gold Cup winner...
Report strontium December 26, 2021 4:08 PM GMT
I think Cheltenham will suit Chantry a lot better than Kempton. He may run in the Cotswold Chase to see (or Champ might).
Report strontium December 26, 2021 4:09 PM GMT
MI was very disappointing last Christmas too.
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 27, 2021 9:00 AM GMT
Minella indo was never going to like the track, but I thought cp would help.
10/1 looks massive for the Good Cup on his favoured new course given his won 2/2.
Has he ever front run before? It could be something as simple as he prefers to follow than be a leader of the pack? Most who won or placed at Kempton yesterday were held up, another excuse.
Assuming his given the ok, I can’t see him going off bigger than 4/1, plus A plus tard will probably mess up the savills chase due to that race throwing up sorry very strange results over the years, another market change is about to happen so take the 10’s while you can!
Report TOP3MAN December 27, 2021 10:05 AM GMT
MI had its day, that run despite racing early with Frodon or not liking track was tame and beaten going out on 2nd circuit, if horse is sound today then I'd have great reservations about its defence of the Gold Cup and wouldn't want any less then 10's of the back of that.

The faller at the last was given a shocker by Bryan Cooper, talk about track the wrong horses all the way around and then when having to give it the kitchen sink at the last to try and make up ground on what everyone in racing knows is a short run he over cooked it. The horse to take from the race for certain a sure fire G1 chase winner before season is out!!
Report workrider December 27, 2021 10:16 AM GMT
Top3man, has fallen in most of its G1s needs to improve its jumping simple as ...
Report undertaker December 27, 2021 10:25 AM GMT
Coastal Paths seem to struggle over fences, and have a much lower strike rate over the larger obstacles than over hurdles. Which is unusual given the uncompetitive nature of the average chase compared to the average hurdle race.
Report TOP3MAN December 27, 2021 12:23 PM GMT
Workrider his fall yesterday was his only bad jump, jumped nicely, was more down to the jock not knowing the race was developing out wide in comparison to tracking CDO
Report strontium December 27, 2021 12:40 PM GMT
The horse regularly falls when push comes to shove. Implies his jumping goes when tired and/or under pressure.
Report workrider December 27, 2021 1:58 PM GMT
Correct Strontium..
Report TOP3MAN December 27, 2021 2:07 PM GMT
We will see
Report Emitdeb December 27, 2021 2:54 PM GMT
That Mullins fellow is a Brilliant trainer, how he gets his horses to finish big races fresher and faster than anyone else.. Quite a gift! GENIUS! imo GrinCool
Report impossible123 December 27, 2021 9:33 PM GMT
If Chantry House wins the Gold Cup after this one could safely conclude worst ever renewal for over 2 decades; CH could not go when the pace quicken. I do not think it was the ground either - he won in the soft several times - possibly the track. Nevertheless one cannot draw any positive given his form.
Report strontium December 27, 2021 9:40 PM GMT
Agreed Impossible. I'm sure 3m+ at Cheltenham will suit CH much better than Kempton, but there are no positives to take from his run yesterday.
Report TOP3MAN December 27, 2021 11:51 PM GMT
Chantry House will need to show something in either the Cotswold chase or Aon Chase (Denman) to be considered for the Gold Cup, I don't see it making the race, Plus Nicky will be more interested in making sure Shiskin turns up sound for the walkover Champion Chase
Report strontium December 28, 2021 1:15 AM GMT
Indeed. I hope Nicky runs him in the Cotswold, I can't see the Denman telling them much. But they may want to run both CH and Champ in a trial over fences and run one in each.
Report workrider December 28, 2021 10:59 AM GMT
Even though Shiskin was very impressive yesterday I doubt very much the C.C, is a walkover , Mullins horse is a machine and it should be a real battle royal up that hill mark my words...
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 28, 2021 11:10 AM GMT
I had it in my head that Energumene would step up in trip to the Ryanair but the issues with Chacun may mean different.
Plus Willie has never won the champion chase and Energumene is a similar age to Un Des Sceau and by the same sire.
Report workrider December 28, 2021 11:16 AM GMT
Englandbarnes , watching racing for over 50 years and Energumene had me agog twice last year , a tank of a horse who seems to love his racing , I'm taking nothing away from Shiskin who has been imperious in everything its done so far, but if he's to be beaten then this lad is the one to do it..
Report irishone December 28, 2021 11:21 AM GMT
Not sure the other runners will beat shishkin, but the fences might.

Why the Irish attack ?

Great o p workrider but the best in ireland stayed at home over christnas. Far better prizemoney and meetings not postponed because of a bit of rain.
Report irishone December 28, 2021 11:25 AM GMT
Looking forward to the English attack atthe Dublin festival

ExcitedLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Deptford December 28, 2021 11:56 AM GMT
Just glad you not playing us in Test Cricket anytime soon.
Report irishone December 28, 2021 12:44 PM GMT
Laughbrilliant


Have a good new year , buy a few more bolly shares mate !
Report Deptford December 28, 2021 12:49 PM GMT
And you mate, just had a delivery!
Report Emitdeb December 28, 2021 4:25 PM GMT
See the masking agents on magic carrots are working a treat.... Wink
Report ENGLANDBARNES1 December 28, 2021 11:57 PM GMT
Going back to Energumene and Willie, everytime I find something negative, they then show it’s no problem. Take for instance I thought Energumene had to have his own way infront.
Notebook broke himself last race trying to prove this theory and didn’t even get the beast off the bridle.
I was following trends last year quite a bit and the trainer that kept annoyingly breaking these trends was Mullins so the champion chase will no doubt be collected!
The last chink I have on Energumene is the he can jump right. He got away with it at leopardstown, but the old course in March can make these right handed lovers look very unbalanced, so I’ll stick with Shiskin.
If Energumene turns up in the Ryanair he’ll have a much more favourable new course which will suit much better.
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