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ProSniper
20 Oct 21 12:15
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Date Joined: 08 May 14
| Topic/replies: 6,991 | Blogger: ProSniper's blog
Can someone kindly provide the stats on each, please???
Pause Switch to Standard View last 10,000 favs, 2nd favs, 3rd favs..
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Report TameTheTiger October 20, 2021 12:34 PM BST
I will hazard a guess....  33% favs, 22% second favs, 15% third favs. All are roughly break even at BFSP, less commission
Report Rigsby October 20, 2021 1:05 PM BST
http://www.adrianmassey.com/web1/pages/racfav.php
Report ProSniper October 20, 2021 1:30 PM BST
Cheers Rigsby, I forgot about that site Happy
Report saddo October 20, 2021 1:47 PM BST
I aint looking that up, you'd better post em later snipey  Laugh
Report saddo October 20, 2021 1:47 PM BST
I aint looking that up, you'd better post em later snipey  Laugh
Report ProSniper October 20, 2021 2:24 PM BST
Report sparrow October 20, 2021 2:26 PM BST
The favourite in a horse race is the horse which is the most popular choice amongst other people. It is also the selection with the shortest odds, so it returns the least to the backer, if it wins. So, is backing favourites a good strategy or would you do better, in the long run, by backing second or third favourites?

I have analysed the results of UK horse races from the last 16 years to indicate what proportion of favourites won races and how much money would have been won or lost by backing them.

The races have been split into different categories to indicate if favourites perform better in certain types of races.

Click on the links on the left for the details.


The Custom Report link allows you to generate your own report analysing certain types of races.


Example/Explanation :

All Races
Favourite    2nd Favourite    3rd Favourite
Outcome    Return    Outcome    Return    Outcome    Return
Bets    Win    Place    Win    E/W    Bets    Win    Place    Win    E/W    Bets    Win    Place    Win    E/W
All Races    106693    35%    62%    92%    91%    92759    20%    49%    89%    90%    86446    14%    39%    85%    87%
Going
Favourite    2nd Favourite    3rd Favourite
Outcome    Return    Outcome    Return    Outcome    Return
Bets    Win    Place    Win    E/W    Bets    Win    Place    Win    E/W    Bets    Win    Place    Win    E/W
Heavy    3780    35%    61%    90%    89%    3321    21%    48%    89%    90%    3095    14%    37%    86%    86%
Soft    11607    34%    62%    90%    90%    10104    20%    48%    86%    88%    9392    14%    38%    86%    88%
Good-Soft    13313    34%    61%    91%    89%    11596    20%    48%    90%    90%    10884    14%    39%    88%    89%
Good    27755    34%    62%    93%    91%    23981    20%    49%    88%    90%    22259    13%    39%    84%    87%
Good-Firm    28908    36%    63%    95%    94%    25251    20%    49%    89%    90%    23588    14%    38%    83%    86%
Firm    6606    38%    63%    93%    92%    5805    23%    50%    94%    94%    5465    14%    36%    86%    87%
Hard    236    39%    59%    82%    83%    210    30%    50%    114%    108%    205    17%    34%    85%    86%
AW Standard    13907    32%    63%    90%    91%    11992    20%    50%    89%    90%    11094    13%    41%    83%    86%
AW Slow    581    30%    61%    83%    84%    499    21%    54%    98%    97%    464    13%    41%    85%    90%
The first table above indicates that there were a total of 106,693 (clear) favourites analysed. 35% of these actually won while 62% were placed (for a definition of placed, see below). If you had bet the same amount on all 106,693 horses (at SP), your return would have been 92% of your stakes. So, for every 100 units staked, 92 would have been returned (a loss of 8). Similarly, an each way bet on all top rated horses would have returned 91% of stakes (a loss of 9%).

There is similar data for (clear) second and (clear) third favourites.

The second table shows the same races split up according to the going in the races. So, 11,607 of the 106,693 races were on Soft going. The favourite won 34% of these races and was placed 62% of the time. The return on backing all 11,607 horses was 90%.

Click on the links on the left for details of different categories of race. You will find that the percentage of winners and the returns differ in different categories of race. Remember that you want a high return (a return of 100% is break even) if you are backing horses or a low return if you are laying horses (on betting exchanges).

The definition of 'placed' depends on the number of runners in the race.
2 to 4 runners - 1st only
5 to 7 runners - 1st or 2nd
8+ runners - 1st or 2nd or 3rd
16+ runners (handicap races only) - 1st or 2nd or 3rd or 4th

Note that I have only included clear favourites (and clear second favourites etc.). Joint favourites and co-favourites have been ignored. This is why there are more favourites in the tables than second favourites and third favourites.
Report elise October 20, 2021 2:32 PM BST
he just wanted 22k brown, 7k black , 1k grey
Report sparrow October 20, 2021 2:35 PM BST
Lost me there, elise
Report ProSniper October 20, 2021 2:59 PM BST
Good stuff birdy Cool
Report Rigsby October 20, 2021 3:27 PM BST
@pro sniper

Disclaimer to the link I posted or any other data you may use:

1. As I have said many times "data is random"
2. SP = Starting Price i.e. the odds when the race starts, and therefore the traditional market is closed. In other words it is an after timing return.
3. In this modern day and age it does not follow that the first, second and third shortest prices on BF or BSP, will be 1st, 2nd and 3rd SP favs with the books.
4. Sometimes the BF first, second and third shortest prices 10 seconds from the off will be different to the BSP first, second and third.
5. Joint favs screw everything up

I am sure you know all this though
Good luck
Report ProSniper October 20, 2021 5:04 PM BST
Sure Rigsby, eye was simply interested to see figures on the top 3 given discussion that arose lastnight..
Report big aitch October 20, 2021 5:52 PM BST
must take you ages to do that on a regular basis Sparrow, well done for your tenacity.
Report sparrow October 20, 2021 5:54 PM BST
No it wasn't my work aitch. I just copied and pasted it from Prosnipers link.
Report sparrow October 20, 2021 5:56 PM BST
Apologies as it was Rigsby who posted the link.
Report Greenacres October 20, 2021 6:41 PM BST
Think you will find all the stats given originated on Adrian Massey's site!!
Report sparrow October 20, 2021 6:51 PM BST
The Adrian Massey site was the link that was posted by Rigsby.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps October 20, 2021 7:00 PM BST
stewyb has bet most of them
Report stewarty b October 20, 2021 7:14 PM BST
You'll be backing them soon steve..
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