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shoodacoodadidnt
26 Jul 21 13:07
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Date Joined: 10 Oct 02
| Topic/replies: 2,255 | Blogger: shoodacoodadidnt's blog
Ship of the Fen and Van Meegeren - for 3 places - yes I bet Ship - fell at the last .... what a game!!
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Report stu July 26, 2021 1:10 PM BST
Nearly cost me big, was laying the 4th in the 3 place market - I was cursing, but luckily a different outsider gets the 3rd instead.

2 fallers over hurdles like that, great trainers.
Report shoodacoodadidnt July 26, 2021 1:20 PM BST
not sure what's going on with the sport - there's certainly nothing certain .... seems worse to me now than it ever was - but probably just rose-tinted nostalgic glasses
Report The Management July 26, 2021 1:28 PM BST
Always expect the unexpected imo - when there are (in theory, on paper, on ratings, form, etc, etc,) only three possible/plausible candidates for the places, you won't go to far wrong (in the long term) by place laying all three of them.

a) They're not machines.
b) They're not all there to win.
c) Skulduggery aside - Quite often the ones that are there to win will forfeit their place chance by trying to win.
Report shoodacoodadidnt July 26, 2021 1:32 PM BST
Very good points Management - I tend to agree - I'm still a bit of a sucker for a "certain" place
Report Vince_Bluett July 26, 2021 1:37 PM BST
Can anyone remember the lowest price Ship Of The Fen hit in the win market?
Report The Management July 26, 2021 1:44 PM BST
It's why place betting is so fascinating imo shooda

In the example above the layers have hit the jackpot (2 out of the frame) but when you consider the prices, the layers don't need the unexpected to happen too often. As a layer (if all three of them were 1/10 to place) you would need all three such selections to finish 1st, 2nd & 3rd in about four consecutive races just like that to stop you from making a profit from laying them all.

i.e. You'd need 12 horses in four separate races to all run close to their rating or perform as expected and/or (in NH races) to not fall, not pull up, not get brought down, not run out, not lose/break their tack, not lose a shoe, etc etc. That's just focussing on the 12 you have layed - you only need one horse from those four races to run above expectation for you.

^ My maths above is shoddy/rough - but it illustrates the point.
Report stu July 26, 2021 1:46 PM BST
They never seem to fall when you want them too though, but that may be my 'sod's law' glasses on! Grin
Report shoodacoodadidnt July 26, 2021 1:47 PM BST
I definitely get your logic Management
Report The Management July 26, 2021 2:02 PM BST
If you look at the big placepot dividends (admittedly after the races) - it's the ones with the freak/unexpected results in the stakes races that are usually the absolute monster dividends. I think most people accept that anything can (and will) happen in a handicap and they perm accordingly but people think they have a single banker selection (or possibly perm two) that can't fail to place in the stakes races!
Report knoxville July 26, 2021 2:41 PM BST
next race in NA 4 place market a good example of managements post
Report The Management July 26, 2021 2:56 PM BST
Not so sure about the make-up of that race knox - and I wasn't feeling all that brave!

2021-07-26
14:46    239193544xxx    2021-07-26
14:37    GB / Newton Abbot 26th Jul/ 14:40 2 TBP / Ayr of Elegance
Lay        2.26
Report knoxville July 26, 2021 3:04 PM BST
no fallers, pulled up etc
1 out of the 4 favs failed to place though so no big loss.
Report The Management July 26, 2021 3:09 PM BST
15:00 Lingfield - it wasn't my play to place lay the fav in that race (unfortunately) - but the 1.04 somehow finishes out of the three.
Report stu July 26, 2021 3:17 PM BST
Is it just me, or are there so many poor hurdle jumpers today at Newton Abbott?!

Both front two in last race tried to fall on the run in hurdles...
Report The Management July 26, 2021 3:32 PM BST
It's why I much prefer the flat stu - it's never felt right to me to lay/place lay horses that you think are suspect jumpers - plenty short ones at Uttoxeter yesterday where the jumping was what cost them. If you love horses though it's a bit of a moral dilemma as your angle into a race imo.
Report stu July 26, 2021 3:40 PM BST
Interesting point - from a moral perspective I think jumps has many issues to consider, I agree.

But then again, if you play it then you've crossed that line I suppose...
Report stu July 26, 2021 3:41 PM BST
TBF horses can fall/unseat without actually being seriously injured of course.
Report MJK July 26, 2021 3:43 PM BST

Jul 26, 2021 -- 9:17AM, stu wrote:


Is it just me, or are there so many poor hurdle jumpers today at Newton Abbott?!Both front two in last race tried to fall on the run in hurdles...


It's the same every meeting. Seems to attract all the horses who look as though they've never seen a hurdle before.

Report The Management July 26, 2021 3:43 PM BST
Surprised to see Makashi out of the frame (at 1.2x) in that 15:30 at Lingield - but a lot less surprised to see Zammit unplaced (at 1.3x) - but that was another race where "only three could place" (according to the betting) and only one of the three finished in the frame.
Report TameTheTiger July 26, 2021 3:43 PM BST
3.30 Lingfield, 1.35 and 1.2 fail to place
Report stu July 26, 2021 3:49 PM BST
It's the same every meeting. Seems to attract all the horses who look as though they've never seen a hurdle before.

Yes, you do wonder what jumps trainers actually do at times...
Report wondersobright July 26, 2021 4:28 PM BST

Jul 26, 2021 -- 9:43AM, The Management wrote:


Surprised to see Makashi out of the frame (at 1.2x) in that 15:30 at Lingield - but a lot less surprised to see Zammit unplaced (at 1.3x) - but that was another race where "only three could place" (according to the betting) and only one of the three finished in the frame.


something wrong with zaamit hence pu

Report The Management July 26, 2021 4:42 PM BST
Quite probably wondersobright - no doubt he did not give his running and I appreciate he was completely unexposed and open to any amount of improvement - so maybe I got lucky - but I would take on pretty much any horse trading that short that had only achieved his RPR's (top RPR of 64 after 2 runs including a win) and giving away significant amounts of weight to horses that had achieved far more. He was pretty unimpressive (imo) in only just about managing to win a very weak maiden (you don't see many win a maiden by running to a RPR of just 64!).
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