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halcyon days
24 Jul 21 18:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 29 Jun 05
| Topic/replies: 30,324 | Blogger: halcyon days's blog
Just a thought..

We've heard of the R (1.0 /1.3 ) rate & the D (eath) rate....

What about the ''S'' rate , those who've contracted the virus and survived !

Methinks S is higher than D !   Wink
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Report onlooker July 24, 2021 6:52 PM BST
That would never do .... being far too bleedin' obvious to Joe public - But NOT the powers that be....

'Silent Majority' - and all that... being ignored, yet again.


Just the same as they stopped releasing just how many ... (the overwhelming VAST number) - who died also having had other 'underlying Health conditions', too ...

- or - were, quite simply, but again obviously - Dead  through being FAT Feckers.... they being PROVEN to be FAR MORE at risk than sensible lifestyle individuals.
Report Ramruma July 24, 2021 7:13 PM BST
The way delta is going, everyone is going to get it. The double jabbed have less chance of becoming ill, and less chance of becoming dead. So do the young and fit, though by all accounts it is a minority of young, fit, unvaccinated people who do get seriously ill who are currently jamming up the intensive care units.
Report GEORGE.B July 24, 2021 7:20 PM BST
Ramruma 24 Jul 21 18:13
The way delta is going, everyone is going to get it. The double jabbed have less chance of becoming ill, and less chance of becoming dead. So do the young and fit, though by all accounts it is a minority of young, fit, unvaccinated people who do get seriously ill who are currently jamming up the intensive care units.

By "all accounts"?

Would you be kind enough to provid ethe link to just one these accounts?
Report Hayden July 24, 2021 7:21 PM BST
Total recovered in the UK = 4,434,939 according to world figures up to today.
Report GEORGE.B July 24, 2021 7:21 PM BST
* provide the ...
Report swiftynifty July 24, 2021 7:26 PM BST
approx 150,000 excess deaths and 5 million cases so the death rate is approx 3%. So, you don't want to catch it.

so the survival rate is 97%.
Report Hayden July 24, 2021 7:28 PM BST
World statistics up to today...

Coronavirus Cases:
194,260,672

Deaths:
4,164,089

Recovered:
176,312,858
Report dustybin July 24, 2021 7:29 PM BST
The Economist did a report a few months ago and they concluded that the worldwide number of actual dead attributable to covid is likely to be a factor of 7 greater than the given figure.

Today I read they think India alone have under reported the death rate by 10.
Report Cider July 24, 2021 7:38 PM BST
swiftynifty

Quite obviously those figures don't account for vaccinations. So are palpably incorrect. They also don't account for pre-existing risk due to age/gender/comorbidity.

Fortunately people are not as stupid as the blob wants to treat them, which is why all the racecourses were rammed today with hardly a mask in sight. Which was great to see.
Report GEORGE.B July 24, 2021 7:42 PM BST
dustybin 24 Jul 21 18:29 
The Economist did a report a few months ago and they concluded that the worldwide number of actual dead attributable to covid is likely to be a factor of 7 greater than the given figure.

Today I read they think India alone have under reported the death rate by 10.


And how many died of something other than Covid but just coincidentally happened to have a "positive" covid test within 28 days of their death, meaning Covid went onto their death certificates?
Report dustybin July 24, 2021 7:48 PM BST
There will be plenty
But equally there will be plenty who die of ailments that are not in the slightest related to covid, but got overlooked, pushed back etc because the NHS simply couldnt have continued as though no threat existed.
Report swiftynifty July 24, 2021 7:52 PM BST
Cider, excess deaths is a perfectly acceptable method of calculating the effect of Covid on the nation whether directly or indirectly.
Report Cider July 24, 2021 7:59 PM BST
If you roll in deaths as a direct result of policy failure with those who directly died due to catching the virus if there weren't any government interventions.

Excess deaths from March 2020 don't inform policy making now. Or at least they shouldn't.
Report onlooker July 24, 2021 8:27 PM BST
^   What on earth is all that about ?   Cider   ...

Can we have that in English please - instead of pseudo-whatever talk.  Cry
Report leif July 24, 2021 8:29 PM BST
Were there any excess burials or cremations please?
Report MC Roller July 24, 2021 8:42 PM BST
ramruma, any evidence to support that steaming pile of shyte you posted?
Report Cider July 24, 2021 9:03 PM BST
It's not meant to be 'pseudo-whatever talk', onlooker.

People can't simply attribute excess deaths to covid, when a proportion of them have occurred as a direct result policy reaction to covid. In the first wave here for example, most care home deaths lagged the community by around a month. That's because covid was seeded in them when the hospitals were cleared out in the panic. Technically they may have died from the disease but most likely they only caught it due to policy failure.

There's the murky world of DNRs, the story is not fully in the public domain yet.

Excess deaths in the home have been running at a reasonably consistent 1000 per week, since April 2020. Most of those are not because they caught covid, but they were scared witless.

Excess deaths on the most recent figures were 944. Only 183 mentioned covid on the cert. Thus something like 800 people more than usual died in that reporting week, but not due to covid. This could well be the beginning of the next disaster, caused by much of primary care letting us down for the last 16 months, and the focus being on one thing (the risk being vastly exaggerated, intentionally).
Report GEORGE.B July 24, 2021 9:15 PM BST
PM Cider
Report Ramruma July 25, 2021 3:23 AM BST
@GEORGE.B & @MC Roller re "shyte" I posted earlier.

Not sure what you are objecting to. You might have noticed the news that Sir Patrick Vallance (boffin who stands next to Boris at press conferences) said 60 per cent of admissions are unvaccinated. It made the news because he accidentally misspoke and said it the wrong way round then corrected it later.
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 9:11 AM BST
Well I think the actual quote was "about 60%", so why wasn't he more specific?

So this means AT LEAST 40% of admissions are the vaccinated.

Which is a far cry from what you posted above, Ramruma:

though by all accounts it is a minority of young, fit, unvaccinated people who do get seriously ill who are currently jamming up the intensive care units.

So MC Roller was correct, you'd posted a "steaming pile of shyte".
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 9:31 AM BST
From page 18 of this lengthy government "roadmap" document

56. This shows that most deaths and admissions in a post-Roadmap resurgence are in
people who have received two vaccine doses, even without vaccine protection
waning or a variant emerging that escapes vaccines
. This is because vaccine uptake
has been so high in the oldest age groups (modelled here at 95% in the over 50-year olds).
There are therefore 5% of over 50-year olds who have not been vaccinated, and 95% x
10% = 9.5% of over 50-year olds who are vaccinated but, nevertheless, not protected
against death. This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake
being so high.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/
attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf
Report Ramruma July 25, 2021 10:05 AM BST
@GEORGE.B -- I'm not really sure what your point is.

60 per cent of hospitalised cases are unvaccinated people. As you say, this means 40 per cent will be vaccinated, either fully vaccinated with both jabs or partially vaccinated with just the first jab.

The document you quote (page 18, paragraph 56) is not about what is happening now. Rather, it is talking about predictions from computer modelling. It is dated 31st March this year. It makes a number of assumptions, then runs different computer simulations to see what sort of outcomes might result from various actions. Note incidentally that in real life, vaccines have proven to be more effective than the modellers assumed.

Of course a new variant might escape the vaccine to a greater extent but that is conjecture at this stage. Israel is warning that effectiveness drops off markedly over time but so far that has not be seen in British, American or Canadian results. But that is why the experts are talking about booster shots in the autumn or winter.

But as above, the 60 per cent figure Vallance (the government's Chief Scientific Adviser) gave last Monday is what is actually happening now.
Report Ramruma July 25, 2021 10:14 AM BST
What it comes down to is this. The delta variant is highly transmissable and is rampaging through the country (and several other countries). This means most of us will encounter it at some time or other. If we do, then vaccination reduces the chance of catching the disease. Vaccination also means that if we do catch it, we are less likely to become ill and less likely to be hospitalised, and also less likely to pass the virus on to anyone else.
Report fairweather July 25, 2021 10:33 AM BST
There are currently around 800 hospital admittances per day in England - that is, people going into hospital for whatever reason, with a positive test.
Why not tell us how many of these are actually presenting with covid symptoms?
..and of these, how many have been vaccinated, what are the age groups, underlying illnesses, etc.

About time we had some proper detail imo.
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 10:40 AM BST
We can round go round in circles with this all day, but let me remind you of what *YOU* posted:

though by all accounts it is a minority of young, fit, unvaccinated people who do get seriously ill who are currently jamming up the intensive care units.

You still haven't provided any evidence of this.
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 10:45 AM BST
By the way, is this the same Vallance who was allegedly using of out of date data to delay the Jume 21st reopening, and who apparently has hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of shares in a company manufacturing vaccines?
Report Ramruma July 25, 2021 11:03 AM BST
@GEORGE.B -- I've no idea about Vallance's shareholdings. I'm not his bank manager. Regarding out-of-date data, iirc it was not real world data but the assumptions and forecasts in the models you quoted earlier. But this is in the nature of fast moving, unprecedented crises.

I do not see any contradiction between what I wrote and what the Chief Scientific Adviser said last week. Most hospitalised cases are of unvaccinated people. Note this is *not* the same as saying most unvaccinated people have been taken to hospital: it is a small minority of them, and they are a small minority of the population.
Report The Management July 25, 2021 11:05 AM BST
It's now clear to me why the Government got EVERYTHING so horribly wrong at every stage - the people that could have advised them correctly are all too busy betting on horses.
Report Hayden July 25, 2021 11:11 AM BST
Laugh
Report Ramruma July 25, 2021 11:11 AM BST
Well, Matt Hancock is the MP for Newmarket. Laugh
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 11:12 AM BST
Ramruma, at least we can trust this government not to 'manipulate' the data, eh?

What, died of something else but just happened to have a "positive" PCR test within the last 28 days? Class it as a Covid death.

Yeah, we can trust them not to try and manipulate any data. As one of their own MPs likes to put it:

"We're so far down this rabbit hole that we forgot we went down it"
Report salmon spray July 25, 2021 11:27 AM BST
Why exactly would the most "laissez-faire" of recent UK governments want to invent/exaggerate the effects of a virus ? And yes GEORGE by your standards I admit to being thick/naive/a Johnson stooge so you'll have to think of another insult.
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 11:36 AM BST
What, died of something else but just happened to have a "positive" PCR test within the last 28 days? Class it as a Covid death.

^ True or False, salmon spray?
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 11:39 AM BST
Btw, why do you lie, salmon spray?

I have NEVER called you "thick" or a "Johnson stooge"
Report salmon spray July 25, 2021 12:03 PM BST
I was anticipating GEORGE.
You haven't answered my question btw.
If this is all a giant conspiracy theory what is the motive ?
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 12:11 PM BST
Let's sort this manipulation of data question out first, as your post appears to be in denial of this:

salmon spray 25 Jul 21 10:27
Why exactly would the most "laissez-faire" of recent UK governments want to invent/exaggerate the effects of a virus ?


What, died of something else but just happened to have a "positive" PCR test within the last 28 days? Class it as a Covid death.

^ True or False, salmon spray?
Report salmon spray July 25, 2021 12:23 PM BST
That has nothing to do with my question GEORGE,and indeed if your point is correct then you are just exemplifying something I am highlighting. You and others are effectively accusing the govt of exaggerating the effects of the virus. THAT would be an example.
Report BennyBinion1 July 25, 2021 12:26 PM BST
There is still adults out there who believe this is all for a virus.

Celebrities and politicians able to do what they want for last 18 months while the rest of us obey their orders.

Flights in and out of this country, no problems.

Constant media black out on all freedom protests around the world. ( Whether u agree or not it is still news)

Constant media and celebrity pushing of experimental, unlicensed, untested vaccines.

Consistent lies about hospital numbers and NHS being overstretched due to Covid.

And now government stating out loud, to the nation, a negative covid test result will mean nothing when you try to go to an event.

Control, control, control....
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 12:28 PM BST
What, died of something else but just happened to have a "positive" PCR test within the last 28 days? Class it as a Covid death.

^ True or False, salmon spray?

So I will take your refusal to answer this question as an acceptance by yourself that the data has been manipulated.
Report salmon spray July 25, 2021 12:39 PM BST
You are doing your best to avoid answering my question GEORGE.
If it makes you happy I am sure there are a number of people who had Covid but who would have died anyway. On the other hand there will have been people who have died at home where the main factor was covid but who wouldn't have been included in the covid figures. Neither you nor I know the exact numbers of either group.
Can you now answer MY question. Why is this "laissez-faire" govt,along with nearly all other govts around the world,exaggerating the effects of this virus.
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 12:43 PM BST
Well now that you have acknowledged that they have, you tell me.
Report howard July 25, 2021 12:45 PM BST
How many of the worldwide deaths were overweight people ?  Have we the numbers ? Thought not.
Report howard July 25, 2021 1:03 PM BST
Also a lot of young people take drugs drink alcohol don't eat well and many won't sleep well. Not in a good condition to fight any illness.  How many pro footballers and pro jockeys in the UK have died of covid please ?  40% of jockeys have received no jab btw.
Report GEORGE.B July 25, 2021 1:09 PM BST
howard, if this so called "vaccine passport" is rolled out to include "mass" attended events, which presumably will include racing, then the jockeys will presumably have no choice but to take it if they wish to continue being jockeys.

Young people being coerced into having a medical procedure for which there is no long term safety data, and for which the short term known adverse affects have been bad enough for some people (see yellow card, VAERS, etc, reporting systems).
Report howard July 25, 2021 1:53 PM BST
Looks like the idea is to get everyone but 160,000 in Paris don't like it. And that's just those that bothered to turn up.
Report howard July 25, 2021 1:53 PM BST
Looks like the idea is to get everyone but 160,000 in Paris don't like it. And that's just those that bothered to turn up.
Report halcyon days July 26, 2021 1:02 PM BST
My belief is thus...

Have attended three funerals, Covid-19 on death certificate..

Mark, dying of cancer..

Stewart, Parkinsons/Alzheimers...

Mick, long term serious health issues....

They all went into hospital and contracted the virus, and died quite quickly.

My father in law who was coming up 86 ( about 12 years ago ), on going Alzheimer’s, contracts MRSA and dies... at the time MRSA & Noravirus were rife !

I'm not denying there is a virus, but if you want a bit more time on this mortal coil just now>>>>> DON'T GO INTO HOSPITAL !!

I move.
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