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GEORGE.B
16 Jul 21 11:59
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Date Joined: 14 Jul 04
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B.O.G will apply where applicable as I will need all the help I can get.

The only target is to try and avoid a losing thread Scared

The thread will end sometime between now and November Handicap day.

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By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Jul 21 12:03
French Conquest, 1pt win @ 9-1, 4.30 Newbury

French Conquest ran in the Newbury maiden back in April that was won by subsequent Falmouth Stakes heroine Snow Lantern, and although he ended up beaten just over eleven lengths, there was no disgrace in that given he'd been keen enough in the lead.

The second and third from that Newbury maiden are currently rated 107 and 94 respectively, so it was disappointing that French Conquest could only manage fifth (two places behind Sunset who reopposes here) off a mark of 69 on his handicap debut over the same C/D, but at least the form received a boost when the horse that finished ahead of him in fourth, Mark Of Respect, won a Newmarket handicap on his next start.

French Conquest has shown hard pulling tendencies, so could do with settling better, but is given a chance with that maiden form not yet forgotten, and having been dropped 2lb from his initial mark.

Jordan Electrics, 1pt win @ 9-1, 6.55 Hamilton

Jordan Electrics didn't shape too badly on his recent reappearance over 5f at Musselburgh against race-fit rivals, and having done his winning on good to firm ground, he won't mind the quickening conditions.
This will be just his fifth start for Alistair Whillans, having previously been trained by Linda Perratt.

Equiano Springs 1pt EW @ 25-1, 7.30 Hamilton

Equiano Springs has yet to win in five attempts when being pitched into Class 2 company, but he finished runner-up at Ascot at this level last season off a 4lb higher mark behind Chil Chil, who is  now rated 25lb higher. His reappearance run over tonight's C/D in a strong handicap won by the re-opposing Rathbone, wasn't without hope having caught the eye finishing his race off well after having been deatched over 2f out.

Equiano Springs has since disappointed at Newmarket when very weak in the betting, so needs to bounce back from that, but a chance is taken EW at the odds.
By:
saddo
When: 16 Jul 21 12:21
You chose a god day to put this up, I'm overrun with em. Hardy a bet all week and 10 (10% of the notebook) run today, what's the chances of that happening Cry .

GL, I've none in them races.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Jul 21 12:27
Good Luck with them, saddo.

I do have others on the shortlist today, which I would describe as looking more iffy or speculative than the ones put up.
By:
saddo
When: 16 Jul 21 14:22
Cheers George, first one I've backed is Dewey Road 2.25. Needs to settle better but looked better than a 77 hoss when winning last year.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Jul 21 14:35
I was interested to see how Mutaabeq would get on trying 6f, but it seems regardless of what trip they run him at, he finds a way not to win.

East Street Revue was the 11-2 fav in the RP paper, wins at 25-1 and 40 BSP.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 16 Jul 21 19:43
A bad day at the office.

French Conquest was free again, and although Adam Kirby did well to get him cover, there was nothing there when asked for an effort.

Jordan Electrics ran alright to be beaten just under a length, but he's eligible for weaker races than this, and maybe in this higher grade a sixth furlong would suit better, given the way he kept on once headed.

As for Equiano Springs, whatever chance he had was ended when he slipped and lost his back legs as the stalls opened Cry

Running P/L: -4
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Jul 21 11:05
Churchill Bay, 1pt win @ 16-1, 2.15 Newmarket
Ivasecret, 1pt win @ 14-1, 2.15 Newmarket


A couple at double-figure prices against the field

Churchill Bay disappointed on his latest start at Haydock, but his previous run at Windsor in a competitive handicap when finishing a close-up fourth, suggested he's capable of winning something similar.
He wears a tongue tie for the first time today and hopefully he can build on the promise of the Windsor run.

Ivasecret looked a useful prospect when winning at Kempton in December for a stable not usually associated with novice stakes winners, but he has failed to confirm the good impression he created there in two starts on turf at Windosr this season.

It could be he'll prove best suited by synthetic surfaces, but a chance is taken in the hope that a gelding operation since he last ran will prove beneficial, and James Doyle being an eyecatching booking (3-10 for the yard last five seasons).

Bungley 1pt win @ 11-2, 2.45 Ripon

It's possible there's a temperament issue with Bungley, having been withdrawn at Carlisle after bolting to post, and last time at Haydock, having overshot the start prior to running poorly. However, she's of definite interest dropped into the seller for the first time based on her third place at Redcar in May when not helped by a high draw on the straight course. She may also appreciate being back on a sounder surface for the first time since having raced on softer ground the last twice.

Of the ones with an official rating, Bungley comes out top, and provied she can get to the start without expending too much energy this time, hopefully she can be competitive on this drop in class.

Satono Chevalier 1pt win @ 5-1, 4.40 Newmarket

It would appear that Satono Chevalier failed to build on his promising debut at Nottingham last time at Windsor, but it's likely that he simply did too much from a wide draw before getting into a duel with the eventual runner-up in the straight, for which he paid the price in the final furlong.

The big query here is the drop to 7f on much quicker ground, particularly with handicaps an option after this. There are mixed messages from his pedigree as to what his optimum trip will prove to be, but given how he went through the Windsor race, being by Invincible Spirit and closely related to a 6f winner, it's possible he may get away with it. It will be interesting to see which way he goes in the betting.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 17 Jul 21 19:10
A poor day. The two in the sprint handicap at HQ offered little. They made sure Bungley didn't bolt to post this time by walking her down, but having been taken on for the lead in the race itself, she didn't put up much of a fight.
And as for Satono Chevalier, there was a suspicion he was now a handicap project and he ran as the market predicted, finishing fourth.

There's always another day Plain

Running P/L: -8 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Jul 21 09:15
Twelve Diamonds, 3.25 Redcar, 1pt EW @ 11-1, (5 PLACES)

Twelve Diamonds ran well on her stable debut over 5.5f at Bath in May when finding only Sarah's Verse too strong, who comfortably followed up under a penalty. She has failed to win in three starts since but again ran well in a 0-70 at Newmarket on her penultimate start when not beaten far in fourth place.

Today's race is a 0-54, and she will be back on a sound surface for the first time since that Bath run, while she's potentially well berthed in stall four given a low draw has tended to be an advantage on the straight course at Redcar in recent times.

Cityman, 5.30 Curragh, 1pt EW at 10-1 (5 PLACES)

Cityman made a pleasing reappearance when finishing third of seventeen at the Curragh last month, and his subsequent disappointment at Fairyhouse is easy enough to forgive given he was trapped wide in a race where the winner made all round the inner.

He remains 5lb below his last winning mark, the ground should be in his favour, while the drop back to 5f hopefully won't be an issue given his last two wins have come at the minimum distance.
By:
jumper3
When: 18 Jul 21 11:28
George, thanks again for posting these. Always good to see a thread, with reasoning and that shows a clear p/l. Good luck. As you know, one winner, and it's all turned around.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Jul 21 18:11
Ta jumper3, unfortunately the wait for that first winner is set to continue.

I took the 5 places EW for both picks but as it turned out ten wouldn't have been enough.

I thought there was an angle in back on a sounder surface for Twelve Diamonds, but she went out like a light having been prominent early.

The last at the Curragh turned out to be a stands-side bias race, but Cityman offered little even allowing for that, and maybe he does need the sixth furlong nowadays.

Running P/L: -12
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Jul 21 09:10
Krystal Maze, 7.15, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 4 PLACES (NOT B.O.G)

I'm taking a chance on a bit of a speculative one today at a price. Krystal Maze hasn't shaped too badly in a couple of runs this season, three runs back at Thirsk over 6f when racing keenly in a dispute of the lead before finding herself outpaced inside the final furlong, and on her penultimate run when keeping on over 5f at Beverley in a race won by Show Yourself who has won again since.

Krystal Maze has her stamina to prove on this step up to 7.5f, but she has a good draw to work from, Cam Hardie takes over from an inexperienced apprentice, and this 0-55 handicap looks a more realistic assignment.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Jul 21 09:11
* 0-56 handicap
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Jul 21 08:51
Like all my 'best' extra place selections, Krystal Maze finished 5th Cry
Things seemed to be going well when Cam Hardie had her bowling along nicely in front, never a bad place to be on a sound surface round there, but unfortunately she couldn't quite hang on to a top four place inside the final furlong.


Running P/L: -14 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Jul 21 09:09
Lancashire Life, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 3.55 Wolverhampton (NOT B.O.G)

This has dropped thirteen points in price since I started thinking about selecting it. What's the point, eh?

I thought Lancashire Life didn't shape too badly last time over C/D, having been keen enough on the pace and a bit wide into the bend, but was still in contention for a place into the final furlong before weakening (and finishing behind Island Memory who came from off the pace to finish fourth).

This is a slight drop in grade from that 0-65 to today's 0-57, and while this doesn't look much easier with some strong contenders at the top of the weights, a chance is taken at the price with her still being open to improvement after just four starts, and with four places on offer.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Jul 21 09:10
* 4 PLACES
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Jul 21 09:36
Glamorous Force, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 5.15 Ffos Las

A chance is taken at the prices EW on Glamorous Force, who two starts back at Chepstow finished over 2l in front of the re-opposing Wild Flower (who is 4lb  better off), and last time at Bath when finishing behind that rival, probably had an excuse on account of the good to soft ground not suiting.

Glamorous Force had previously finished ahead of the re-opposing Fard when finishing fourth of fourteen at Windsor, albeit he might have been the better drawn of the two.

I'm not sure Glamorous Force is the most straightforward (he was reported to have hung left throughout at Chepstow and can be slow away) and was tried in a hood last time (soon discarded), so I think it is a risky selection, but with the ground hopefully more suitable this time and his close form ties with a couple of these much shorter in the betting than he is, he gets the vote.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 20 Jul 21 11:21
GL, George.

Have you read Anorak's comments re 5:15 FL on Andrew's thread?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Jul 21 11:58
Thanks IAWN. Yes, trying 5f again with Fard looks well worth a go given the early pace he has been showing in some of his races.

I think Fard is more likely to give his running than Glamorous Force who can miss the break and hang, but at the prices they were earlier this morning, GF looked overpriced given they look closely matched on the Windsor form and he appeared to have an excuse last time.

The unexposed fav will probably be tough to beat, but yes, happy enough to take my chance at 14-1.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 20 Jul 21 17:20
Wd, George.
By:
jumper3
When: 20 Jul 21 17:24
Congratulations George. Off and running. What was your rule 4 which I assume you had to suffer, with the 2 NRs?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Jul 21 17:33
Thanks IAWN & jumper3.

10p Rule 4, jumper3, as one was already out when I posted and the other was Silk Tie.

I didn't think Lancashire Life was going to run given the way Jonny Peate struggled into the ambulance after being unseated on the way to the start, but the next minute here he is down at the start getting back on board Shocked

Traded evens IR, watched it back three times, still struggling to see that.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Jul 21 17:50
Running P/L: + 4.75
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Jul 21 10:50
A couple of selections at Naas this evening in races where there are five places on offer.

Sister Rosetta, 1pt EW @ 8-1 (5 PLACES), 5.20 Naas

The negatives aren't too difficult to identify regrding Sister Rosetta's chance  - she has yet to place in two attempts when stepped up in class to Listed company, has a bit to find with a few of these on adjusted figures, and there's a nagging concern that she may not want the ground too quick. However, they have watered at Naas, with the going given as good, good to firm in places, so hopefully she'll be ok on the ground.

I thought her effort last time at the Curragh when carrying top weight in a handicap and finishing runner-up wanted marking up given how the race panned out. There have been mixed messages from the form since, though the fourth to whom she conceded 12lb, has since won a Leopardstown handicap, albeit one that didn't look the strongest by that track's standards.

I'd be more optimistic with give in the ground, but with five places on offer, a chance is taken EW.

Sweet Justice 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.50 Naas

A bit risky this because there have been two poor runs since the 'notebook' run at Leopardstown last month, but a chance is taken at the prices.

I thought she did well to finish runner-up on that occasion considering she had a wide enough trip having been drawn eleven of the twelve runners, and she was racing from 2lb out of the handicap. The winner Sasvana (who ran well back at Leopardstown on her latest start) also runs here and when claims are taken into account in this apprentice handicap, Sweet Justice is 8lb better off for a neck, though it should be pointed out that Sweet Justice is ridden by an inexperienced apprentice on this occasion.

If Sweet Justice runs like she has the last twice then she won't be winning anything, and she has another wide draw to contend with, but that run three starts back in a 0-77 handicap suggested she ought to be competitive racing in an easier grade such as this 0-65.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Jul 21 10:51
* Sweet Justice 1pt EW @ 16-1 (5 PLACES), 6.50 Naas
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 21 Jul 21 17:38
The only target is to try and avoid a losing thread


I found threads for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and as far as I can see, they were all profitable so wd.

No pressure...
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Jul 21 22:56
Absolute rubbish today.

IAWN, they sound like ancient history now, I must have done six or seven since then in various forms, not that I want anyone to go digging them up!

The links to my previous two juvenile hurdle threads from the last two seasons can be found in the opening post of my current one.

Running P/L: +0.75
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Jul 21 09:10
Global Hope, 1pt win @ 12-1, 2.00 Yarmouth

Global Hope is a three time C/D winner who has fallen to 4lb below his last winning mark and who is probably racing under his optimum conditions for the first time this season, given he's been racing over 7f in his recent starts and the surface might not have to been to his liking when he has raced at 6f.

He hasn't shaped too badly over 7f in a couple of his more recent starts at the track, including when probably not best drawn in May.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Jul 21 09:29
Lady Dauphin, 1pt win @ 12-1, 3.45 Yarmouth

A chance is taken on Lady Dauphin on her first start for Tom Clover, with Stefano Cherchi taking 5lb off, in this basement grade handicap.

My notebook run for her was on the AW, but she has won and placed on turf and this will be the first time she has raced in a 0-52. She was rated 59 when finishing third last September at Bath behind Kendergarten Kop and Alezan who have both franked the form since, with subsequent dual AW winner Pink Jazz behind her in fourth.

She's returning from over six months off here so fitness has be taken on trust, but she's potentially well handicapped if ready to do herself justice.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Jul 21 09:32
* Lady Dauphin is actually rated 53, but is eligible under the +2lb conditions of the race.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Jul 21 08:19
Lady Dauphin briefly threatened with a challenge down the centre of the track but could only keep on for a one paced third behind the easy winner.

Running P/L: -1.25
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Jul 21 08:56
Soto Sizzler, 1pt win @ 9-1, 3.35 Ascot

Soto Sizzler ran in the Old Newton Cup Handicap on his most recent start and although he finished only eighth of the twelve runners, beaten over 15 lengths,  I think it's reasonable to think he shaped better than the bare result.

The race appeared to be strongly run on the soft ground, the time was around two seconds quicker than the Group Two race for fillies over the C/D on the card, and it paid to be held up with the principals (including Mignights Legacy, who also runs here) coming from the off the pace.

Soto Sizzler, who had sat close enough to the pace, travelled well into contention and was disputing the lead around two furlongs out before weakening out of it.  He is closely matched with Midnights Legacy on Epsom form from two starts back, and faces much quicker gound here, but he has won on good to firm previously and his overall form would suggest a sounder surface suits better.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Jul 21 09:15
Catch Kodi, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 8.15 Cork (SIX PLACES)

With six places on offer EW in the finale at Cork, I'm going to take a speculative punt on Catch Kodi, who didn't run too badly from a wide draw in a big field last time at Navan over 10f, having always been on the pace and kept plugging away until losing places inside the final furlong, beaten just  under five lengths.

They were in heap at the finish, so perhaps the form isn't the most reliable, and she has another wide draw to deal with here, but she has only had the four starts and has posted improved RPRs on her last two starts, albeit at a lowly level.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Jul 21 08:46
Soto Sizzler was held up and never go into it, though he did make late gains to just miss fourth place.

Catch Kodi didn't look to be making much impression when being hampered in the straight. He's in the same ownership as the winner and was listed as wearing the same colours, which caught some people out as he traded around 2-1 IR.

Running P/L: -4.25
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Jul 21 08:55
Oriental Spirit, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 7.05 Salisbury

Stuart Kittow wouldn't normally be associated with Newbury debutant winners and Oriental Spirit was sent off at 200-1 when making his debut at that track on heavy ground late last season, however, he shaped with promise, travelling well in the lead until being headed over one furlong out and fading to sixth as the conditions took their toll.

He hasn't been seen for nine months, has been gelded in the interim and may face quicker ground here unless the rain reaches Salisbury, but a chance is taken EW at the prices.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Jul 21 09:12
Ballycommon, 1pt EW @ 40-1 (4 PLACES), 5.35 York (Not B.O.G)

A speculative EW pick (4 places) is made on Ballycommon, who won on his debut over 7f at Thirsk (g/s) last season, but who hasn't been getting home in handicaps over longer trips this season, including last time out at Nottingham over 10f when having raced too freely in the lead.

The drop back to 7f looks worth trying based on that evidence, and while he's eligible for weaker races than this being rated 65 and running in a 0-80, he has been dropped a stone from his initial rating.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Jul 21 09:29
Sweet Justice, 1pt EW @ 28-1 (4 PLACES), 5.10 Gowran

Another chance is given to Sweet Justice who was selected when she ran the other evening at Naas and finished mid-div. I noted her at Leopardstown four starts back over 7f at Leopardstown when I thought she did well finish second having had a tough enough trip from a wide draw.

The three runs since have been disappointing, but a fully fledged jockey takes over this evening, she has the inside draw to work from, and she's being stepped up to 9.5f (she did run well when finishing second over 9f at Tipperary last season).
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Jul 21 19:58
Oriental Spirit managed to hang on for a place and prevent a six point loss on the day.

Sweet Justice had a nice trip round the inner and looked set to finish fourth but found a way to finish fifth.

Ballycommon led them into the final furlong but was soon swamped. He's eligible for weaker races.

Running P/L: -2.65
By:
PHS
When: 24 Jul 21 21:24
Place GeorgeWink
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