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GEORGE.B
16 Jul 21 11:59
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Date Joined: 14 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 51,113 | Blogger: GEORGE.B's blog
B.O.G will apply where applicable as I will need all the help I can get.

The only target is to try and avoid a losing thread Scared

The thread will end sometime between now and November Handicap day.
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Report GEORGE.B October 5, 2021 7:41 PM BST
William Carson had him well positioned relative to where the winner came from, Virgin, and I thought he was going to run on into a place, but I didn't think he looked the easiest, luggimg to his right under pressure.

A bad day at black rock all round.

I've had some shockers with these soft ground angle selections, and I added another two today, with Western Alliance failing to get involved, and Shanghai Rock, who was easy to back despite the return to heavy ground, folding tamely.

Excelinthejungle made for frustrating viewing, chasing what was probably an overly strong pace before leading into the final, then being picked off by the winner before losing two places inside the final 100 yards to two who had sat well back from the early fractions.

Running P/L: +239.31 pts
Report GEORGE.B October 6, 2021 9:21 AM BST
Rubee Forty, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.30 Kempton

Rubee Forty is  a filly I've selected previously on this thread, having perhaps shaped better than the bare result when racing in the centre of the turf track at Lingfield on a day when racing close to the stands-rail appeared an advantage. She caught the eye again on her latest start and Polytrack debut at Lingfield, when she wasn't without market support, and looked unlucky not to go closer having been denied a clear run in the closing stages.

She's returning from six weeks off this evening, so fitness has to be taken on trust, but interesting to see if the backers return, and she's obviously unexposed on the surface. David Probert is booked, but he doesn't have a good record for the stable, 1-42 last 5 seasons.
Report madhatters October 6, 2021 12:02 PM BST
Rubee hammered by your followers GB Grin
Report GEORGE.B October 6, 2021 1:09 PM BST
I was rather hoping it was insider money, Mad', given she's coming off a short break.

The market closer to the off will tell us more.
Report GEORGE.B October 6, 2021 1:28 PM BST
Lorna Cole, 1 pt EW @ 14-1, 8.00 Kempton

Lorna Cole is of a little interest returning to a C&D over which she won last September off a 7lb higher mark. She has faced some stiff tasks in higher grades since joining Charlie Wallis from Mick Appleby, and although she has failed to get competitive in them, she hasn't looked a lost cause on a couple of occasions. This will be the first time she has raced in 0-55 company, and may benefit from a return to 6f, so hopefully she can be more competitive this time from a potentially helpful draw.
Report GEORGE.B October 6, 2021 8:45 PM BST
It's been a poor three days on the thread since Monday.

I wondered if everything looked in place for Lorna Cole to return to form on this drop in grade, but absolutely no excuses, having been well positioned she offered little.

There was seemingly morning support for Rubee Forty, but she was returning from a 6 week absence and it's possible the run was needed.

Running P/L: +235.31 pts
Report madhatters October 6, 2021 8:55 PM BST
Keep the faith GB
235 pts didn't come from flukes Grin
Onwards
Report the numbers seven October 6, 2021 9:12 PM BST
It will come good again George a mere blip in your run. Wink
Report GEORGE.B October 7, 2021 8:50 AM BST
I wish I shared your optimism! Scared
Report GEORGE.B October 7, 2021 8:57 AM BST
Finally Mine, 1pt win @ 8-1, 1.30 Ayr

I'm going to give another chance to Finally Mine who ran well on soft ground at Musselburgh last October when pulling clear with the winner, on what was just her third start and handicap debut. She hasn't had many chances on a similar surface since, and I selected her last week over today's C/D on ground described as good to soft, when she ran okay to finish fourth of six, beaten just over 2l.

It looks like the ground will softer today, and interesting to see if this suits better.

Tommaso, 1pt win @ 10-1, 1.30 Ayr

In the same race Tommaso is of a little interest on her debut for Phil Kirby. She caught the eye on her debut over 7f at Carlisle on soft ground in May when despite looking green she ran on well to finish third. She hasn't shaped too badly on quicker surfaces since.

Tommaso appears to have a knee action, so it could be she'll prove better suited to softer surfaces. She has taken a keen hold, so could do with settling better on this return from three months off, but I suspect there is better to come from her at some point.

Impressor, 1pt EW @ 30-1, 3.15 Ayr (4 PLACES)

This is perhaps on the speculative side. Impressor hasn't shown much in six starts for Philip Makin since joining his yard from Marcus Tregoning, and his mark has fallen 20lb. He has been gelded since last seen over two months ago, and he's of interest today back on a softer surface as his novice win came on good to soft, and he was placed on heavy ground in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes in his 2YO season. He didn't run too badly on his final start for his previous yard at Goodwood last season on good to soft when rated 23lb higher.

He could only finish 7th of 11 on soft ground at Doncaster in May for his current yard when rated 13lb higher than today, so it could just be he hasn't really trained on as an older horse, but with his mark in free fall, a chance is taken at the odds. David Allan takes just his second ride for the yard.
Report Virgin October 7, 2021 10:45 AM BST
Thanks George some good pointers there ...for what it's worth I like Finally Mine and Impressor (after reading your reasoning) but haven't added to the penalty.... yet ;) gl
Report Virgin October 7, 2021 12:32 PM BST
3.15 Ayr Pearl Of Qatar @ 22-1 (4 pl) looks a little overpriced given her form (17 Aug 21 @ Ham) with a few of the market leaders so fingers crossed for her making the frame as well ...gl
Report Virgin October 7, 2021 3:28 PM BST
Pearl Of Qatar @ 22-1 (4 pl)Happy 3rd
Report GEORGE.B October 7, 2021 3:31 PM BST
Well done on the place, Virgin.
Report GEORGE.B October 7, 2021 3:35 PM BST
I think I can pass on Finally Mine from now on. There is stamina on her dam's side, so maybe longer trips is what she wants, or is another straw to clutch at.

Tommaso (who is a gelding, not a filly as I was calling her) was very weak in the betting close to the off and ran as the late market predicted. He appeals as the sort to come good for his new stable at some point, but there was nothing to suggest a win could be imminent in the short term.

Impressor led for over four furlongs before folding tamely.

Running P/L: +231.31 pts
Report GEORGE.B October 8, 2021 11:55 AM BST
Lincoln Gamble, 1pt EW @ 17-2, 5.55 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Lincoln Gamble has been running okay on turf of late, and he he's of some interest back on the AW based on his run at this track over 7f in early August, when always close up in what looked a well run race that produced a time 1.38 seconds quicker than the other division, and not shaping too badly in finishing fifth of the fourteen runners in that 0-65.

That was just his second start at this track, and although he's 2lb higher this evening, this is a drop in grade to a 0-60. He seems to stay a mile fine on turf, so I'm not expecting the step up in trip on this surface to be an issue.

Tomily, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 7.30 Newcastle

Tomily has been round the block a bit now and has had plenty of racing, but he hasn't been running too badly this season for his current yard, including when finishing a close up third at Carlisle in May off a 9lb higher mark, and he's another of interest being returned to Newcastle. He's now 15lb lower than when finishing a close up third in 0-85 company over C&D last November.

Tomily did have a couple of starts at this track back in April, but the runs might have been needed so early in the season, and back in the day at this course he had made the frame when rated 99, so it is a surface he has run well on more than once from few opportunities.

Magnetic North, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)

Magnetic North has run well for his new stable a few times this season and finally got his head back in front two starts back when winning a 16-runner Roscommon handicap over 12f in a first time visor.

He's of some interest returning to Dundalk for just the third time. Of his two previous course starts, one came last season in a Premier Handicap when rated 14lb higher and he failed to make much impression from a wide draw, and the other came the previous December when rated 15lb higher and probably shaping better than the bare result given he endured quite a wide trip throughout.

Magnetic North is ridden this evening for the first time by 10lb claiming apprentice Adam Caffrey, who has ridden a second and two fourths from 25 rides, so jockey inexperience could be a factor. However, Magnetic North remains well handicapped on his old form and is only 2lb higher than for his recent win, and he hasn't had many chances racing over 12 furlongs.
Report Virgin October 8, 2021 2:35 PM BST
Magnetic North has not won for me in 8 picks including the 6 DEC 19 run (3.2 ish ir) you mention George I eventually gave up after my final pick came LAST @ Naas 23 AUG 20, almost a year before his latest win, helped by a drop in class (?), although as you say he's unexposed on AW so I can understand connections wanting to see for themselves (I'll watch with mild interest Mischief ) gl ....
Report GEORGE.B October 8, 2021 9:03 PM BST
One I got wrong, Virgin. He had a terrible wide trip on that December '19 run, when rated much higher, but no such excuses this evening, just nowhere near good enough, even off his reduced mark.

Lincoln Dream was very weak in the betting leading up to the off, and in the race took a keen hold and ended up being eased right off after the saddle had slipped forward. I didn't see any shots of him going to post, but maybe he'd been keen to the start which might explain the drift. There seemed to be some market support for his stablemate Brazen Prince, who was making his AW debut and finished fourth.

Tomily made the frame to prevent another complete wipe out. -2.2 on the day.

Running P/L: +229.11 pts
Report GEORGE.B October 8, 2021 9:04 PM BST
* Lincoln Gamble
Report GEORGE.B October 8, 2021 9:04 PM BST
* Lincoln Gamble
Report GEORGE.B October 9, 2021 12:17 PM BST
Breagagh, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.50 Limerick

Breagagh hasn't offered much in a couple of runs since returning from over 10 weeks off, including when unfavourably drawn wide at Bellewstown last time, but he is of interest racing again on soft / heavy ground, given he ran well on a similar surface when finishing second of sixteen over 6f at Fairyhuse in May, when he had three of today's rivals behind him. He ran okay to make the frame on his next start over 7f at Gowran Park on good ground, so it could just be that he's gone off the boil for whatever reason, rather than the ground has been unsuitable for him. However, he looks worth at least one chance back on a testing surface, while hoping that those two more recent runs have been needed to advance his fitness.

Maud Gonne Spirit, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 4.35 Limerick

Maud Gonne Spirit ran well to finish second over 7f at Cork on soft ground in August to a filly who was winning her third race of the season for her new yard, with two subsequent winners in behind. Of her three runs since, she was runner-up in a conditions race on unfavourable terms at Tipperary, and the last twice back in handicap company, she has shaped as though still in form despite the races not panning out favourably for her.

She is a dual winner on soft-heavy ground, so the going should be in her favour, and while she has a wide draw to overcome, there should be a pace on to run at in this with the likes of Nebo and Spanish Tenor in the field.

Siglo Six, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 4.55 Chelmsford

Siglo Six has plummeted in the weights and is now 26lb below the mark he won off over a mile at Sandown in 2019 when trained by Hugo Palmer. He often doesn't help himself by refusing to settle, and he has yet to place in ten attempts on the AW. However, he ran well enough from the front over 11f at Kempton earlier this year when rated 15lb higher, before being reeled in and fading to finish fourth, to suggest that he does act on Polytrack.

He is racing over 7f this evening, a trip he won over as a 3YO, but whether it's his optimum trip nowadays is open to question as he has been tried over various trips. He is well drawn to go forward this evening at a track where such tactics can be favoured, and it will be interesting to see what the market makes of him close to the off, on this his first start with a tongue-tie applied.
Report Virgin October 9, 2021 4:41 PM BST
George Cool wd gl .....
Report stewarts rise October 9, 2021 4:42 PM BST
Well done George, another nice priced winner, can't keep a good  man  down for long.
Report GEORGE.B October 9, 2021 4:52 PM BST
Cheers Virgin & stewarts. It was needed after a poor week.

Suspect I'll know my fate after 50 yards with this next one. Steadied at the start?
Report Virgin October 9, 2021 4:59 PM BST
Sad late gains Sad
Report GEORGE.B October 9, 2021 5:07 PM BST
Didn't even have to wait for the 50 yards.

Interesting head on, you could have driven a bus up the inside, but whip in left hand and in behind horses.

Who knows, maybe the horse has totally gone at the game, or maybe the application of cash to the betting markets will prompt a rejuvenated performance at some point. He is eligible for 0-55 / 57s now.
Report GEORGE.B October 9, 2021 5:13 PM BST
Running P/L: +236.36 pts
Report PHS October 9, 2021 7:06 PM BST
WD. Unbelievable strike-rate.
Report 11kv October 9, 2021 7:11 PM BST
GEORGE.B is very good,like the write ups myself...
Report madhatters October 9, 2021 9:20 PM BST
Back in the groove GB
Report the numbers seven October 9, 2021 9:26 PM BST
Nice one George.
Report GEORGE.B October 9, 2021 9:52 PM BST
Thanks for the positive comments.

After a good weekend, it was a poor few days with thirteen points dropped from Monday to Friday. Got a few of the supposedly soft ground angle ones badly wrong.

Oh well, hope for better next week.
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 8:49 AM BST
Alpine Stroll, 1pt EW @ 17-2 (4 PLACES)

Alpine Stroll hasn't been at his best in recent starts, but he might have found the ground too quick when a well beaten favourite at York last time, and it's easy enough to forgive his run in the Melrose the time before.

A couple of his previous runs this season on good to soft don't read too badly now, when finishing runner-up at Newbury and Salisbury to Surrey Gold and Pleasant Man, who have both gone on to win off higher marks. Alpine Stroll races here off a 4lb lower mark than for either of those runs.

He still has to prove his stamina for two miles, but the way he's been keeping on in some of his races has suggested he should stay. He's the only three year old in this race which is confined to jump jockeys, and hopefully this return to easier ground will see him more competitive.
Report Virgin October 10, 2021 9:44 AM BST
* 1.45 Goodwood

I quite like the price of Be My Sea @ 10-1 but age is putting me off at 10 yo I will leave it to the youngsters gl ....
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 10:36 AM BST
Fancy leave the time and meeting off. I'll have to start taking more water with it Tongue Out hic.

Thank you, Virgin.

Plenty of horses aged ten and older have won Grand Nationals, Virgin, so I'm sure the odd one can win round Goodwood over 2 miles, even against younger legs Wink
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 10:37 AM BST
* leaving Crazy
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 11:08 AM BST
Caspian Prince recorded four RPRs in excess of a hundred this season at the age of twelve.
Report saddo October 10, 2021 12:04 PM BST
I'm hoping for a good run from Manucci, should like conditions and was always travelling a bit too well off the slow pace lto. GL.
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 1:00 PM BST
Good luck, saddo
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 1:41 PM BST
It looks like you've moved the market here, saddo, price collapse
Report Virgin October 10, 2021 1:53 PM BST
Be My Sea - almost embarrassed me PlainBlush
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 2:01 PM BST
Good run, Virgin. Sportsbook were paying five places.

Poor from my pick, who just wasn't up to it against some grizzled old performers, in a jumps trainer wins Flat staying handicap shocker.

Running P/L: +234.36 pts
Report Virgin October 10, 2021 2:11 PM BST
Yes indeed George a decent run from the old'un Wink
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 2:17 PM BST
I thought saddo's pick was looking good coming down the straight when he was in behind the leaders and looking to challenge. Maybe he could have done with an all round stronger pace as the time was a shocker, 16.5 secs outside standard. Obviously they were carrying bigger weights, and maybe the ground is more heavy than soft.
Report saddo October 10, 2021 2:29 PM BST
Been walking so haven't seen it yet George, slow pace again? All but the odds on lays taken so pleased enough anyway.
Report GEORGE.B October 10, 2021 2:51 PM BST
Maybe it was just a combination of the weights and ground, saddo, but two lengths covering the first five home, usually a sign that the pace had been a modest one. And is noted in the close-up comments, yours was keen enough just in behind it.
Report GEORGE.B October 11, 2021 11:59 AM BST
Corton Lass, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.20 Musselburgh (4 PLACES)

Corton Lass is a 42-race maiden, so probably more of a place than win prospect, but she has placed on three occasions over today's C&D, and she's well drawn today which may help her put in one of her better efforts, though whether she'll be able to grab the rail or not could depend on Garnock Valley, who has led in a couple of his recent starts over further.

Corton Lass didn't run too badly over C/D last month when finishing fourth from the lowest draw (with today's rival Lord Of The Glen one place behind her), in a race won by one who has gone on to follow up and then finish a close second. She seems versatile regarding ground, and while she can carry her head high under pressure and not find as much as seemed likely, hopefully conditions today will suit.

Moonlit Cloud, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.25 Yarmouth

I'm going to give another chance to Moonlit Cloud who was a bit disappointing when I selected her last time at Chelmsford over 7f, though it's possible the run might have been needed after a short break and the surface might  not have suited. She hadn't shaped too badly previously in maiden and novice races round Nottingham over 8.5f on good to firm when probably having gone off quickly enough in front.

There is stamina in her pedigree, so being kept to 7f may not be ideal, but she didn't look short of pace round Nottingham, so perhaps another attempt at this trip on turf is worth a go. Her draw in two is a slight concern, but on the plus side her mark has been dropped 7lb from her initial rating.
Report GEORGE.B October 11, 2021 11:59 AM BST
Corton Lass, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.20 Musselburgh (4 PLACES)

Corton Lass is a 42-race maiden, so probably more of a place than win prospect, but she has placed on three occasions over today's C&D, and she's well drawn today which may help her put in one of her better efforts, though whether she'll be able to grab the rail or not could depend on Garnock Valley, who has led in a couple of his recent starts over further.

Corton Lass didn't run too badly over C/D last month when finishing fourth from the lowest draw (with today's rival Lord Of The Glen one place behind her), in a race won by one who has gone on to follow up and then finish a close second. She seems versatile regarding ground, and while she can carry her head high under pressure and not find as much as seemed likely, hopefully conditions today will suit.

Moonlit Cloud, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.25 Yarmouth

I'm going to give another chance to Moonlit Cloud who was a bit disappointing when I selected her last time at Chelmsford over 7f, though it's possible the run might have been needed after a short break and the surface might  not have suited. She hadn't shaped too badly previously in maiden and novice races round Nottingham over 8.5f on good to firm when probably having gone off quickly enough in front.

There is stamina in her pedigree, so being kept to 7f may not be ideal, but she didn't look short of pace round Nottingham, so perhaps another attempt at this trip on turf is worth a go. Her draw in two is a slight concern, but on the plus side her mark has been dropped 7lb from her initial rating.
Report Virgin October 11, 2021 1:36 PM BST
Wd place George Happy gl ...
Report GEORGE.B October 11, 2021 1:58 PM BST
Ta Virgin. A few firms were going four places. She tends to be up on the pace, but whether by design or because she wasn't cleanly away, they held her up today.
Report Virgin October 11, 2021 4:31 PM BST
Another good effort George Sad gl ....
Report Manoleeds October 11, 2021 4:31 PM BST
The way the betting went I thought MC had lost a leg on the way to the start. Backed with the bookie paying 4 places for the inevitable result Sad
Report 11kv October 11, 2021 4:44 PM BST
50 at the off on here ran well unlucky..
Report GEORGE.B October 11, 2021 5:07 PM BST
Yeah, made for tough viewing, after looking like she might just hang on for a place, ends up losing two places inside the last half-furlong.

No damage done on the day at the early prices thanks to the extra place concession, but will go down as -4 at Betfair SP. Corton Lass was sent off at 18-1.

Running P/L: +234.96 pts
Report GEORGE.B October 12, 2021 8:43 AM BST
Tilly The Filly, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 6.00 Newcastle

Tilly The Filly is having her third run for a mark today, and has to prove herself on the surface, so not sure this is the time to catch her, but on a quiet day she gets a tentative vote EW.

She shaped nicely enough on her debut at York (5.5f, g-f) last month when shaping as though in need of the experience and probably a stiffer test. Her second start saw her finish a close up fourth at Beverley (5f, good) three weeks ago in a novice won by one with an official rating of 77, with today's rival Lucky Lucky Lucky (who finished his race off well) a length behind her in fifth. Tilly The Filly steps up to 6f this evening which promises to suit.

Serenading, 1pt win @ 100-30, 7.30 Newcastle

Serenading is a fairly obvious one, but she looked in good form last time out at Ascot over a mile in a class 2 handicap when getting no luck in the run. She drops in grade to class 4 company this evening and returns to Newcastle where she is 2 from 3 (both wins at 7f) and 9lb higher than for her last success.

She has yet to win over today's trip of a mile in four attempts but she seems to stay the distance. PJ McDonald, who has been aboard for both her wins, takes over again in the saddle.
Report Virgin October 12, 2021 7:37 PM BST
Wd George Cool
Report GEORGE.B October 12, 2021 7:49 PM BST
Cheers Virgin.

And well done to ? Yarmy and the stalls handlers for getting her in, I was feeling knackered just watching them. She didn't look too far away from having to be withdrawn.

The filly in the novice race didn't run too badly considering she wasn't well drawn and pulled too hard, but it looked a risky selection in a race of that nature and so it proved as she faded to fifth.

Running P/L: +236.29 pts
Report the numbers seven October 12, 2021 8:07 PM BST
Good shout GB, the first one looked like it was going to be last 2 out so done well staying on for 5th.
Report GEORGE.B October 12, 2021 9:24 PM BST
Before the camera angle changed, it looked as though the gelding she finished in front of at Beverley was going to run right past her and reverse the form, but when they came back into shot, she was over a length of ahead of him. Mind, they might have been taken it easy in behind Wink
Report GEORGE.B October 12, 2021 9:25 PM BST
* taking Crazy
Report PHS October 12, 2021 9:29 PM BST
WD
Report GEORGE.B October 13, 2021 12:14 PM BST
Cheers, PHS
Report GEORGE.B October 13, 2021 12:17 PM BST
Miss Anaco, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 1.55 Bath (4 PLACES)

Miss Anaco made a pleasing debut at Bath over 5f (g-f) in August when third behind a couple who are currently officially rated 80 and 74. She hasn't built on that initial promise in two subsequent starts, though it's possible the surface wasn't ideal on either occasion, though her fourth last time out at Ffos Las (g-s) looks better now with the runner-up having come out and since won a 13-runner restricted novice at Goodwood, albeit one she was entitled to win on the figures.

Miss Anaco goes handicapping off a mark of 60, which looks fair based on her debut form, and hopefully the return to quick turf will prove more suitable.

With Pleasure, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.25 Bath

With Pleasure hasn't won since winning over today's C&D back in 2017, and he isn't getting any younger at the age of eight. However, he didn't shape too badly at Bath over 13f (good) on his latest start when returning from nearly three months off, having taken a grip and pulled his way to the front over 7f out, but he kept on reasonably well considering he was taken on up front from some way out.

He's up in grade today and has work to do to reverse the form with the runner-up from that race Master Grey, who he's 2lb better off with, while the quicker ground and widest draw are also concerns, but if he can run his race more efficiently this time over a trip he's proven over, hopefully he can at least press for a place.

One Over Par, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 7.30 Kempton (4 PLACES)

One Over Par finished tailed off on his debut for Mick Appleby just nine days ago when returning from over three months off, after having been sold out of James Tate's yard for 13,000 gns and undergone a gelding operation, however, it's likely the soft ground was unsuitable.

He is of interest on what turned out to be his final start for his previous yard back in June, when fifth at Kempton on his first attempt at a mile, not faring too badly considering he'd raced freely in the early part of the race and had sat close enough to the pace in a race where the first two had been held up. The second and third have both won twice since.

It could be that his new stable will need more time to get to the bottom of him, and it's hard to be sure dropping back to 7f will be ideal (though he had the speed to break his maiden over 6f at Newcastle as a 2YO), but this ease in grade should help and interesting to see which way he goes for his new yard.
Report Virgin October 13, 2021 8:59 PM BST
Wd George Happy
Report GEORGE.B October 13, 2021 9:06 PM BST
Ta Virgin, unfortunately not enough to prevent a losing day.

One firm were paying five places on Miss Anaco's race (who finished 5th), and four places on With Pleasure's ( who finished fourth), but the only one that counted for this thread was One Over Par, who finished fourth (SP 12-1) as there were a few firms going four places.

-2.6 pts on the day.


Running P/L: +233.69 pts
Report the numbers seven October 13, 2021 10:30 PM BST
Hit the bar there GB, good effort though. Wink
Report GEORGE.B October 14, 2021 8:57 AM BST
the number seven, I thought With Pleasure was going to swoop down the outer and at least nick a place, but maybe the ground was quick enough for him.
Report GEORGE.B October 14, 2021 9:00 AM BST
Million Reasons, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.10 Brighton

Million Reasons returns to the Brighton for the first time since finishing a good second at today's trip of 6f in July to Coco Bear, who has since won off a 7lb higher mark in a higher grade. The third, Anjella, who went into the race on a hat-trick, has also won again since. Million Reasons was trained by Marco Botti at the time, and three runs since for David Evans have been disappointing, though he probably shaped a little better than the bare result on his latest start at Leicester over 7f, given he contested what appeared a solid pace from an unfavourable draw in an apprentice handicap before weakening.

A concern regarding his chance today is the quick ground as his second here in July came on good to soft, and previous runs on a quick turf surface haven't been great. However, a drop in his rating allows him into this lower grade (albeit the two at the top of the weights carrying penalties are better than this grade), he may be suited by a return to 6f, and hopefully the application of a visor to prove beneficial.
Report GEORGE.B October 14, 2021 9:02 AM BST
* will prove Crazy
Report GEORGE.B October 14, 2021 11:16 AM BST
Blue Umbrella, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 4.35 Curragh

I'm going to take a speculative punt on Blue Umbrella who probably shaped better than the bare result over C&D in a maiden when last seen two months ago, when showing good speed in the centre of the track to dispute the lead and was still travelling okay around 2f out when being steadied to track and then not getting the clearest of runs, before weakening out of it. Today's rival Red Wasp, who was making her debut that day and showed plenty of promise, has since won a maiden at Doyal Royal. She looks open to plenty of improvement, however, Blue Umbrella, who was just over two lengths behind her at the Curragh, meets her on 18lb better terms plus Nakita Kane's 7lb claim.

Blue Umbrella did finish runner-up in a fourteen runner 5f maiden at Tipperary last season, albeit it wasn't the strongest race of ts type, but at least that run showed she does have some abilty, and her rating is now 13lb lower than at its peak. She's missed a couple of engagements since last seen due to being in season and then lameness.
Report Virgin October 14, 2021 2:46 PM BST
Wd George Cool gl ...
Report GEORGE.B October 14, 2021 4:17 PM BST
Cheers Virgin.

Just seen that my 66-1 poke in the last at the Curragh is a late NR. Oh well, a small profit on the day.

Running P/L: +235.89 pts
Report GEORGE.B October 15, 2021 8:53 AM BST
Loch Long, 1pt EW @ 18-1, 5.30 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

I'm going to give another chance to Loch Long who ran well to be second at Newcastle over 10f in early August when wearing first time cheekpieces, and then after a couple of disappointing runs at other tracks when poorly drawn, I selected him last time back at Newcastle over 10f when he was disappointing again, all the more so considering he had finished in front of the winner Oot Ma Way when they had met previously over C&D.

He's dropping back to a mile this evening, which isn't sure to suit, however, a change of headgear to blinkers could help sharpen him up and it could be that he needs to be ridden more prominently than he was last time, as had been the case when finishing second on his previous run at this track.

Emraan, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 8.00 Newcastle (4 PLACES)

Emraan is another I'm giving another chance to having disappointed when selected last time out at Kempton over 7f. His previous effort over 7f on soft ground in a stronger grade probably wanted marking up given how the raced panned out. It augured well for his return to Polytrack given he had won his first two career starts at Lingfield on the AW and his mark could be viewed as a favourable one. However, he was returning from a 6 week break and failed to get involved having been caught wide early from the outside stall.

Emraan has to prove himself on Tapeta, but his mark continues to fall and the return to a mile looks a good move, though being drawn in stall four could be a problem.
Report The Management October 15, 2021 5:05 PM BST
Good Luck with the above George - but I only popped in for a nosey today expecting to see Wot's The Wifi Code as a selection Shocked
Report GEORGE.B October 15, 2021 8:45 PM BST
The Management, I tend to let the prices dictate the selections on days when I have quite a few on the shortlist. He was well clear of the third when I picked him last time, but unfortunately ran into one on the day.

A couple of shockers today. I think I can pass on Loch Long for the time being.
The market vibes were terrible for Emraan, with 50+ available in the win market and chunks lining up to lay the horse in the 4TP market. He appears well handicapped, but no doubt there will be plenty of market support for him if he is to revive.

Running P/L: +231.89 pts
Report GEORGE.B October 16, 2021 9:03 AM BST
Prison Break, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 4.50 Catterick (4 PLACES)

Prison Break was returning from a six week break last month at Hamilton (12f, soft) in a 3YO handicap that included three last-time-out winners and he shaped quite well in finishing fourth behind them, particularly as he didn't have the smoothest of trips.

His mark has been eased two pound which allows him into this slightly easier grade, while the return to 14f shouldn't be an issue as he won over this trip at Redcar in June.

Miss Roulette, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 4.50 Catterick (4 PLACES)

Miss Roulette is also selected in the same race. She showed improved form for Mark Johnston when upped markedly in trip to 12.5f at Musselburgh in August when finishing third behind one who subsequently went close to winning at the Ayr Western meeting. She then ran okay to finish 4th over 11.5f at Windsor on ground that might have been quicker than ideal.

I selected her last time at Wolverhampton over 14f on her debut for Roger Fell, when she put in an absolute shocker, stopping to nothing over 5f out and being pulled up having apparently made a "respiratory noise". It obviously takes a leap of faith to support her after that, but hopefully as she's out again relatively quicker, it's not a long term issue.

She remains unexposed at middle distances and beyond, and hopefully today's surface will suit better. She wears first time blinkers.
Report GEORGE.B October 16, 2021 6:17 PM BST
It got a bit messy as some of the field made a dash for the stands-rail in the home straight, but Miss Roulette showed her Wolverhampton run to be all wrong by keeping on for fourth and landing the extra place concession.

Prison Break probably wasn't best positioned in the straight being more centre / far side, but he didn't seem to stay the trip in the ground. His best form prior to Hamilton had come on a sounder surface.

Running P/L: +234.49 pts
Report PHS October 16, 2021 7:05 PM BST
PlaceWink
Report the numbers seven October 16, 2021 11:34 PM BST
Well done GB, another big priced place.Grin
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2021 9:45 AM BST
Thank you PHS and the numbers seven.

A quiet day on the Flat with just some typical end of season big field competitive fare at Naas.

High Heels, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.05 Naas (5 PLACES)

I'm going to give a tentative vote to High Heels despite concerns that she's coming of a 7 week break and that her low draw may become a disadvantage by the time this race is run if it turns out to be an advantage to come stands' side in the straight.

The case for her rests largely on her third place at Cork (yielding) in June when finishing third behind today's rival Thunder Kiss, when running over 12f for the first time and probably doing well to finish as close as she did given how the race panned out.

Of her two runs since, her fourth over 14f at Leopardstown in Group 3 company probably was a good effort despite being a beaten favourite, given the winner Believe In Love has since gone close to winning a French Group 1, and the third Forbearance has since won Listed and Group 3 races at major meetings.

Her last run when well beaten at Cork on soft ground in first time blinkers is a concern, particularly if the going was the reason for it, but hopefully the pause that refreshes has restored her back to form, and she hasn't had many chances at today's trip of 12f.
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2021 6:42 PM BST
As I thought might happen, challenging stands' side proved no bad thing, not that I'm using that as an excuse for High Heels, who probably just wants better ground.

The thread has been going for now for just about bang on three months, so with the P & L starting to stall / get worse, I think now's a good time to call it a day for another season.

The thread's profit at the early prices / B.O.G peaked at around 250 pts, and it did make it past 200 pts profit at Betfair SP after commission at one point, though that has now dropped back to 192 pts.

The main highlight was obviously the two winners at Kempton from two selections at decent prices. Also picking Celerity on the day she finally won a race, and one of my better spots was noting Autumn Evening on a rainy night at Tramore and then selecting him when he won a relatively valuable hurdle at Listowel.

Got plenty wrong too mind, but I'll just quickly move on from that!

Thread P/L at Early Prices / B.O.G: +232.49 pts

Thread P/L at Betfair SP after deduction of 2% commission: +192.15

    Date        Horse        B.O.G        Stake        finish pos        P/L        Betfair SP -2%   
    16-Jul        French Conquest        9        1        0        -1        -1   
    16-Jul        Jordan Electrics        9        1        0        -1        -1   
    16-Jul        Equiano Springs        25        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    17-Jul        Churchill Bay        16        1        0        -1        -1   
    17-Jul        Ivasecret        14        1        0        -1        -1   
    17-Jul        Bungley        5.5        1        0        -1        -1   
    17-Jul        Satono Chevalier        5        1        0        -1        -1   
    18-Jul        Twelve Diamonds        11        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    18-Jul        Cityman        10        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    19-Jul        Krystal Maze        50        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    20-Jul        Lancashire Life        20        1 EW        3        3        4.68   
    20-Jul        Glamorous Force        14        1 EW        1        15.75        5.49   
    21-Jul        Sister Rosetta        8        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    21-Jul        Sweet Justice        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    22-Jul        Global Hope        12        1        0        -1        -1   
    22-Jul        Lady Dauphin        12        1        3        -1        -1   
    23-Jul        Soto Sizzler        9        1        0        -1        -1   
    23-Jul        Catch Kodi        40        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    24-Jul        Oriental Spirit        33        1 EW        3        5.6        0.48   
    24-Jul        Ballycommon        40        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    24-Jul        Sweet Justice        28        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    25-Jul        Equiano Springs        18        1        0        -1        -1   
    25-Jul        Azano        12        1        0        -1        -1   
    26-Jul        Classy Al        28        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    27-Jul        Doublethetrouble        16        1 EW        3        2.2        1.37   
    27-Jul        Rinty Maginty        5TP             33        1 EW        5        5.6        -2   
    28-Jul        Somekindasuperstar        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    29-Jul        Lipsink        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    30-Jul        Nagasaki Dream        18        1 EW        2        2.6        1.1   
    30-Jul        Boy George        14        1 EW        2        1.1        0.35   
    30-Jul        New Look        25        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    31-Jul        Lincoln Dream        4TP             12        1 EW        4        1.4        -2   
    31-Jul        Rubee Forty        33        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    02-Aug        Exhalation        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    02-Aug        Sagauteur        5        1        0        -1        -1   
    03-Aug        Coup De Gold        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    03-Aug        Miss Sligo        12        1 EW        1        14.4        16.07   
    04-Aug        Rinty Maginty        8        1        0        -1        -1   
    04-Aug        Impeach        14        1        0        -1        -1   
    05-Aug        Tashim        8.5        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    05-Aug        History Writer        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    05-Aug        Fierospeed        16        1 EW        3        2.2        1.92   
    06-Aug        Celerity        28        1 EW        1        26.88        52.54   
    07-Aug        Rockingham Jill        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    07-Aug        Golden Days        16        1 EW        4        2.2        1.44   
    08-Aug        Valhalla's Dream        28        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    09-Aug        Amnaa        9        1 EW        2        0.8        -0.1   
    09-Aug        Rubee Forty        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    09-Aug        Final Orders        14        1 EW        2        1.8        2.63   
    10-Aug        Campachoochoo        12        1        0        -1        -1   
    10-Aug        Needwood Blossom        25        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    11-Aug        Villeurbanne        8        1        0        -1        -1   
    12-Aug        Prince Ali        14        1        0        -1        -1   
    12-Aug        Bluetech        25        1 EW        2        4        3.86   
    13-Aug        Red Showgirl        40        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    14-Aug        Equiano Springs        28        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    14-Aug        Flying Dragon        10p R4        22        1 EW        3        2.96        2.53   
    15-Aug        Sheila's Legacy        22        1 EW        3        3.4        4.29   
    15-Aug        Fine Wine        28        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    15-Aug        New Look        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    16-Aug        Owens Lad        28        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    17-Aug        Beauzon        10p R4       11        1 EW        3        0.8        0.12   
    18-Aug        Roseabad        2.75        1        1        2.75        2.89   
    18-Aug        Just Amber        9        1 EW        3        0.8        1.87   
    19-Aug        Dark Lion        6.5        1 EW        1        7.8        4.92   
    20-Aug        Tindrum        8        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    20-Aug        Under Fox        6        1 EW        3        0.2        0.17   
    20-Aug        Thriller's Moon        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    21-Aug        Soto Sizzler        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    21-Aug        Latin Fury        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    21-Aug        Art Dealer        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    22-Aug        Bonte Moi        6        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    22-Aug        Jo March        6.5        1 EW        4        0.63        0.27   
    22-Aug        Long Call        11        1        0        -1        -1   
    22-Aug        Oceanline        11        1 EW        1        13.2        12.52   
    23-Aug        Miss Bella Brand        28        1 EW        1        33.6        12.13   
    23-Aug        Ireland's Eye        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    24-Aug        Needwood Blossom        12        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    25-Aug        Jungle Inthebungle        20        1        0        -1        -1   
    25-Aug        Carpentier        5        1        0        -1        -1   
    26-Aug        Top Exhibit        9        1 EW        1        10.8        10.56   
    27-Aug        First Greyed        12        1        0        -1        -1   
    28-Aug        Captain Vallo        33        1 EW        3        5.6        1.62   
    29-Aug        Iur Cin Tra        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    29-Aug        Bahia Star        10        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    29-Aug        Somekindasuperstar        16        1        0        -1        -1   
    30-Aug        Devon Envoy        14        1 EW        1        16.8        15.81   
    31-Aug        King's Castle        12        1        2        -1        -1   
    01-Sep        Zest Of Zambia        10        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    02-Sep        Sugauli        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    03-Sep        Musahaba        12        1 EW        2        1.4        2.01   
    03-Sep        Equiano Springs        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    04-Sep        Mount Mogan        9        1 EW        1        10.8        9.62   
    04-Sep        Diamond Eyes        14        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    05-Sep        Fivethousandtoone        5.5        1        0        -1        -1   
    06-Sep        Prince Ali        22        1 EW        1        26.4        33.3   
    07-Sep        Jamih        16        1 EW        4        2.2        -2   
    08-Sep        Captian Corelli        8        1 EW        1        9.6        7.75   
    08-Sep        Queens Carriage        22        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    09-Sep        Favourite Child        16        1 EW        2        2.2        2.04   
    09-Sep        Gioia Cieca        16        1 EW        2        2.2        6.25   
    10-Sep        Alflaila        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    10-Sep        Korker        33        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    11-Sep        Scope        40        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    11-Sep        Sisterandbrother        25        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    12-Sep        Moonlit Cloud        14        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    12-Sep        Amhran Na Bhfiann        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    13-Sep        Jungle Inthebungle        20        1 EW        3        3        6.06   
    13-Sep        Delta River        7        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    13-Sep        The Weed Machine        8        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    14-Sep        Enchanted Night        3.5        1        0        -1        -1   
    14-Sep        Mashaan        20        1        3        -1        -1   
    16-Sep        My Lady Claire        10        1 EW        4        0.6        -0.26   
    17-Sep        Lady Lade        12        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    17-Sep        Ernest Rutherford        12        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    17-Sep        Emraan        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    18-Sep        Equiano Springs        8        1        1        7.6        5.68   
    18-Sep        Misty Ayr        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    18-Sep        Jungle Inthebungle        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    19-Sep        Berry Edge        8        1        0        -1        -1   
    20-Sep        Mount Rainier        14        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    20-Sep        Autumn Evening        16        1 EW        1        19.2        20.69   
    20-Sep        First Greyed        7        1        0        -1        -1   
    21-Sep        Loch Long        25        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    22-Sep        Iur Cin Tra        12        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    22-Sep        Bulls Aye        10        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    22-Sep        Roseabad        8        1 EW        3        0.7        1.11   
    23-Sep        Bastogne        11        1        2        -1        -1   
    23-Sep        Big Island        14        1 EW        3        1.24        2.92   
    23-Sep        Miss Roulette        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    23-Sep        Onaraggatip        11        1 EW        3        1.2        0.67   
    24-Sep        Fine Distraction        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    25-Sep        Irish Admiral        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    25-Sep        Zozimus        100        1 EW        4        19        17.13   
    26-Sep        Showmedemoney        10        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    26-Sep        Larado        16        1 EW        1        19.2        24.26   
    27-Sep        Wholelotafun        9        1 EW        1        10.8        8.74   
    27-Sep        Outsmart        5.5        1 EW        3        0.1        0   
    28-Sep        Finally Mine        5.5        1        0        -1        -1   
    29-Sep        Helluvaboy        25        1 EW        1        30        39.59   
    29-Sep        Percy's Prince        20        1 EW        1        24        18.62   
    30-Sep        Vino Santo        10        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    01-Oct        Bonte Moi        9        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    01-Oct        Big Thanks        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    02-Oct        Kodiac Prince        18        1 EW        1        21.6        14.7   
    03-Oct        Angel Bleu        6.5        1 EW        1        7.8        6.38   
    03-Oct        Coup De Gold        12        1 EW        2        1.4        0.27   
    04-Oct        Ron O        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    04-Oct        Severus Alexander        12        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    04-Oct        Wots The Wifi Code        16        1 EW        2        2.2        2.72   
    05-Oct        Western Alliance        7        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    05-Oct        Shanghai Rock        7.5        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    05-Oct        Excelinthejungle        14        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    05-Oct        Montaqem        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    06-Oct        Rubee Forty        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    06-Oct        Lorna Cole        14        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    07-Oct        Finally Mine        8        1        0        -1        -1   
    07-Oct        Tommaso        10        1        0        -1        -1   
    07-Oct        Impressor        30        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    08-Oct        Lincoln Gamble        8        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    08-Oct        Tomily        14        1 EW        2        1.8        1.18   
    08-Oct        Magnetic North        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    09-Oct        Breagagh        25        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    09-Oct        Maude Gonne Spirit        9        1 EW        1        11.25        14.21   
    09-Oct        Siglo Six        14        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    10-Oct        Alpine Stroll        8.5        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    11-Oct        Corton Lass 4TP        18        1 EW        4        2.6        -2   
    11-Oct        Moonlit Cloud        20        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    12-Oct        Tilly The Filly        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    12-Oct        Serenading        3.33        1        1        3.33        2.94   
    13-Oct        Miss Anaco        11        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    13-Oct        With Pleasure        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    13-Oct        One Over Par 4TP        12        1 EW        4        1.4        -2   
    14-Oct        Million Reasons        16        1 EW        3        2.2        2.04   
    15-Oct        Loch Long        18        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    15-Oct        Emraan        25        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    16-Oct        Prison Break        10        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
    16-Oct        Miss Roulette 4TP        28        1 EW        4        4.6        -2   
    17-Oct        High Heels        16        1 EW        0        -2        -2   
                                            232.49        192.15   
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2021 6:47 PM BST
* Extra place concessions did not apply when setting at Betfair SP, standard EW terms were used.
Report Manoleeds October 17, 2021 6:59 PM BST
Amazing stuff George . Look forward to next year-you deserve a break , you must spend hours watching replays.
Report Virgin October 17, 2021 7:03 PM BST
Well Done George a great profit Cool ...enjoy the break Wink
Report PHS October 17, 2021 8:27 PM BST
^As Virgin said so well.
Report stewarts rise October 17, 2021 8:47 PM BST
Excellent as usual George, vwd just one thing you can't expect to run very quickly with High Heels on soft ground, just a thought!
Report chavman October 17, 2021 9:00 PM BST
WD George top picking and profit
Report the dealer October 17, 2021 9:18 PM BST
Aye well done again, another big profit for the thread
Report Macintoshmatty October 18, 2021 12:58 AM BST
well done George, amazed at the different challenges you set yourself yet still manage to show a profit

'chapeau'
Report Tostidog October 18, 2021 2:54 PM BST
Well done George

Great thread
Report Whippin Piccadilly October 18, 2021 3:03 PM BST
Excellent thread. I took a good few quid off the layers thanks to George's hard work. George, is the Guv'nor! Cool
Report the numbers seven October 18, 2021 10:22 PM BST
Great thread George, obviously you put the graft in. looking forward to next year.
Report PAT'S PLAYTHING October 19, 2021 9:51 AM BST
Well done George--hard to make a profit over that length of betting.

NOW -are you running "All weather comp." this season--and If so when does it start---asking for a friend!!--Pat 91 and still keen to make her daily selections (when she has finished the Daily Mail crossword, and beaten me at Scrabble !!)

all the best
Roy
Report robbierobot October 19, 2021 1:10 PM BST
Great tipping George, good form analysist on every horse you tip up good to read pal..Cool
Report toffee man October 19, 2021 1:14 PM BST
amazing tipping, very well done george
Report FOYLESWAR October 19, 2021 1:16 PM BST
great tippin george! the guvnor !
Report madhatters October 19, 2021 8:26 PM BST
WD GB
CYA again next year Grin
Report The Management October 19, 2021 8:43 PM BST
Top bombing George! - an enjoyable read and an incredible final tally. Well done.
Report GEORGE.B October 20, 2021 9:08 AM BST
Thanks for the kind words everyone.

I'll still be carrying on with the juvenile hurdle thread, though this season looks a long way off from matching the previous two, just don't seem to be getting the runners for whatever reason this time around.
Report GEORGE.B October 20, 2021 9:10 AM BST
PAT'S PLAYTHING19 Oct 21 08:51
NOW -are you running "All weather comp." this season--and If so when does it start---asking for a friend!!--Pat 91 and still keen to make her daily selections (when she has finished the Daily Mail crossword, and beaten me at Scrabble !!)


Morning Roy,
Hope yourself and Pat are keeping well.

Sure, we'll start it the week after the November Handicap.
Good luck.
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