George's 2021 / 22 Juvenile Hurdle Selection Thread

DI stands for Dosage Index, the complicated system of assessing the stamina of a horse, based on its breeding. Used and written about in the UK by Nick Mordin as a tool that can identify Derby winners - in the US it's also applied to the Kentucky Derby.

The lower the DI number, the greater the stamina, so in broad terms a 5F sprinter might have a DI of 8.0, a winner of the Ascot Gold Cup a DI of 0.5.

It clearly does work to a degree, but imo, it contains a built in flaw that its supporters never seem to address.

Alan

I was a big fan of Mordin but never got into the Dosage thing.
What was the flaw?

The system depends on sires being allocated points in one or more of five categories, which cover the range of speed from sprimters to middle distance. The categories are called Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional.

Mordin published a list in an appendix of his book Winning Without Thinking. Examples from there include Nijinsky as Classic/Solid, which I read to mean Classic because he won at a mile, Solid because he also won at 12F. Sea Bird is just Solid, presumably because he only won at 12F.

Getting these sires correctly allocated is crucial - the flaw is the simple question of who makes the decisions? Who decided that Nijinsky is Classic/Solid? Mordin never explained this aspect of the system.

Thanks Alan

WD George

Well done. Looks a nice type

Nice one George.

Great pick. Well done.

Well done George. That should be decent form as the other three had all run well.

Jan 22, 2022 -- 5:12AM, TheAnorak wrote:

The system depends on sires being allocated points in one or more of five categories, which cover the range of speed from sprimters to middle distance. The categories are called Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional. Mordin published a list in an appendix of his book Winning Without Thinking. Examples from there include Nijinsky as Classic/Solid, which I read to mean Classic because he won at a mile, Solid because he also won at 12F. Sea Bird is just Solid, presumably because he only won at 12F.Getting these sires correctly allocated is crucial - the flaw is the simple question of who makes the decisions? Who decided that Nijinsky is Classic/Solid? Mordin never explained this aspect of the system.

The sires, or Chefs-de-race used in the Dosage System are arrived at by what their progeny achieve over varying distances, not what they, personally, have achieved regarding winning distance. The more Group 1's that their progeny win, the more likely a horse will be considered as a Chef-de-race.

Thanks.

He's look a nice type physically. They were questioning his attitude on SSR based on his Flat record, but he certainly put it all in at Pontefract, and he looked straightforward today, with his hurdling improving as the race went on and coming right away on the run-in.

Running P/L: +36.2 pts

WD George

well done George

Cheers guys

Winterwatch, 1pt win @ 12-1, 1.10 Warwick

I've just the one qualifier in this and it's a risky one!

Winterwatch won twice from six starts over middle distances on the Flat when trained by Andrew Balding, and he seemed versatile regarding surface having won on both Polytrack and soft ground, and run well in defeat on good. However, it was noticeable in some of his runs that he can be a keen-goer, and when he made his hurdles debut for Harry Fry at Hereford 19 days ago, he was presumably dropped out in an attempt to get him settled, but having ballooned the first flight and not been much better at the second, he wandered slightly going into the third, jinked and got rid of Sean Bowen.

It takes a leap of faith to support him after that, and it could be the focus will be on getting him settled and hurdling more fluently, so perhaps he'll be one for handicaps further down the line, but a chance is taken given his Flat ability and in the hope that he has learnt from that initial hurdling experience and is more amenable today.

Saint Segal should prove hard to beat after finishing second last time in the Grade One Finale Hurdle at Chepstow, on what was just his second career start.

Jaramillo won over 10f on good to firm and on the AW for Roger Varian, and with an official rating of 85 in that sphere he is the top-rated of these that have a Flat rating.  He was visually impressive when winning on his latest start at Newcastle, but might have been flattered to an extent given the pace collapsed after the leaders had probably gone off hard enough. He cost his new owners 100,000 gns, and presumably the more the ground dries out the better for his chance.

Thunder Ahead, who has a Flat rating of 78, was a 12f winner on the AW for Harry Dunlop, but he had also run well previously on soft ground, so perhaps it was disappointing he didn't fare better on his hurdles debut for Alan King at Wetherby last month when finishing only fifth of the seven runners, having been sent off at just 11-4. He is at least entitled to come on for that initial experience and perhaps today's better ground will suit better.

Hasty Parisian hasn't shaped too badly in a couple of bumpers on contrasting ground and now switches to juvenile hurdling for a yard that has had a good season in this division.

There's plenty of room for improvement in Winterwatch's hurdling, he jumped big on occasions and lost ground as a consequence. He's looking a handicap project on that evidence, with the trip round an easy track on goodish ground looking sharp enough him.

Thankfully Jaramillo got up after taking a nasty tumble two out. He probably would have finished third, as it looked like Hasty Parisian was going to stay on past on him for second anyway.

Running P/L: +35.2 pts

Winterwatch needs to jump a lot better next time to make a hurdler. He looked to me like a horse that does not enjoy jumping but he deserves one more chance. The winner was never going better than after the last so will stay.

Baby Sham, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 1.20 Leicester (4 PLACES)

Baby Sham has been selected more than once on the thread previously and managed to make the frame last time from 4lb out of the handicap when perhaps better suited by the softer ground than she had been racing on. She was comfortably held by the first two, but the winner has since followed up off a 7lb higher mark and the second won his next start too, to give the form a boost.

She's again out of the handicap and doesn't face an easy task against her elders, but at least this is confined to her own sex this time and she looks worth a try over this longer trip, so gets an EW vote with a couple of the main firms offering four places.

Oh dear, Baby Sham went from looking a win contender approaching the last (traded a shade of odd-on for peanuts) to ending up finishing fifth as her stamina appeared to give way on the run-in.

Running P/L: +33.2 pts

Jockey thought he was on Dancing Brave!

Coolcullen, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 2.10 Naas

A chance is taken on Coolcullen despite concerns that me may not want the ground to dry out too much and is ridden by a 7lb claimer still awaiting his first winner over jumps.

I thought he shaped well when finishing third at Down Royal for Jim Bolger back in early June over 12.5f on good to firm when displaying an action that could suggest easier ground would suit better, and although that was just a six runner affair, interesting to note that he had a couple behind who have won 3YO hurdles this season including dual scorer Bell Ex One. Coolcullen had previously run reasonably well when staying to be nearest at the finish in a 12f handicap at Leopardstown.

He only raced three times after the Down Royal run and didn't progress, including when tailed off on yielding ground at Navan in October. He remains in the ownership of Mrs Bolger and is now trained by Brendan Duke ahead of his hurdling campaign, and while it's a concern that he didn't sign off on the Flat in better form, it will be interesting to see how he does over hurdles for a trainer who did well with the Bolger-owned juvenile hurdler Clemencia a couple of seasons back.

Win or lose 33s is a lot better than the 18s generally on offer last night.

Jessie Harrington has been very quiet so far this year but Only Sky by Sea The Stars could be a nice recruit to hurdling.

Damn and blast, run out of third place close home.

Running P/L: +31.2 pts

Gamigin, 1pt win @ 17-2, 1.50 Punchestown

A 4yo handicap hurdle, which I think could be the first of the season confined to this age group. I've just the one qualifier and that is Gamigin, who hopefully will find this a more realistic opportunity than the maiden hurdles he's been running in. He didn't shape too badly on his latest run when finishing sixth of twenty over C/D two weeks ago and having three of today's rivals behind him.

As the market indicates, Doctor Churchill looks the one to beat, and the horse he defeated last time at Limerick, Champion Green, easily won a maiden hurdle yesterday at Naas.

Spoilsports offering a free bet if second to fav.

Thanks for letting us know, Manoleeds.

Only 4th for Gamigin, and perhaps a query about him staying the trip over hurdles on that sort of ground as having looked like he might get past the third, he's ended up 4l behind him. He looked on the small side alongside his rivals, so not sure he has much scope for this game, but there may be a 0-65 in him on the Flat.

Running P/L: +30.2 pts

Harlem Soul, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 3.10 Wincanton

Harlem Soul looks an interesting recruit to hurdling as a sizable son of Frankel who showed a fair level of ability on the Flat for Mark Johnston, and who should have the stamina for this game. He didn't progress as might have been expected after winning over 12f at Ripon back in the summer (from Impulsive One, who went on to win a couple of juvenile hurdles), but interesting to see what his new yard can achieve with him following a 40,000gns sale and a gelding operation.

The balance of his form would suggest a sounder surface suits best, so the ground is a slight concern as the going stick reading of 5.8 seems on the low side, and it could be he'll want a stiffer test in this sphere in time, but a chance is taken on him in receipt of the weight allowance from his elders.

Harlem Soul didn't shape too badly despite finishing only fifth against some older rivals with hurdling experience. Pity they couldn't have found a race against his own group to start off with.

Running P/L: +29.2 pts

* Running P/L: +28.2 pts

Inca Prince 1.32M

Decent bet for me, Hendersons would be 7-2 at least if trained by anyone else, it's form isn't up to much imo.

Good luck DG

My only qualifier is the 'rag' Bulls Aye, so just a watching brief for me.

I did select his stablemate Oot Ma Way twice on this thread without any return, and when I didn't bother on the third run she went and finished second at 50-1 Was only fourth on handicap debut though next time.

3-1 > 5-4


All it has to do now is win!!

Fkin dire 

Zuraig, 1pt win @ 5-1, 1.37 Sedgefield

This is a maiden hurdle for 4YO+, so perhaps not deal to be taking on older horses who have the benefit of hurdling experience, as well as three from his own age group who've had at least one try over hurdles, but a chance is taken on Zuraig who showed a decent level of ability when trained by Andrew Balding, and who probably shaped better than the bare result when last seen in August over 12f at Salisbury.

He has an official rating on the Flat of 82, has been gelded since last seen and sold for 41,000gns, and it will be interesting what his new stable can do with him.

Coolcullen, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 2.45 Fairyhouse

Coolcullen is selected again in the hope that he progresses from his hurdling debut 10 days ago at Naas when it made for painful viewing to see him run out of third place close home.

1.37 Zuraig and Patient Dream,gl

the bookies writing their own results again, tanglefoot

All you can say is that they rode Royle Street completely differently this time having led in its two previous hurdle starts, this time dropped out as though it was a non-jigger on its third run for a mark.

As for Zuraig, it might be tempting to think they made too much use of him given how the winner was ridden, but not so sure given how they were all in a heap at the second last.

The thread's P/L has started to engage reverse gear.

Coolcullen, who looks a big unit, doesn't seem to possess much in the way of a change of gear and wasn't easily left behind when the pace cranked up.

Running P/L: +25.2 pts

* was easily ....

With that race and Swingin London, 4yos are beginning to win a few all aged novices albeit not top class ones. Until recently, I didn't rate any of the GB 4yo hurdlers but one or two recent runners look useful. Doctor Parnassus may be the best out so far but is he within a stone of the Irish ones?

Keep going George ,I think u have the right formulae for finding some good priced winners

Zuraig was a good selection as jockey has an excellent record at track,although it didn’t come off today.

Thanks for the words of encouragement, tanglefoot

sageform, I wonder if Doctor Parnassus will turn out to be best on soft, which could be an issue regarding his Cheltenham chance.

The other juvenile trained in the UK who looked useful and comes to mind, Forever Blessed, probably had an excuse at Chepstow when sent off fav for the Finale, but again, remains to be seen how quick he'd want the ground.

Possibly George but doctor P has a lovely long and easy stride that to me suggests he would be happy on goodish ground. Taunton is a quick tight track so he should be better on a more galloping one imo. The horses behind him yesterday finished quite close together but he won ridiculously easily.

sageform, I have been known to get ground preferences wrong, an example on this thread being Tommaso, who I think has been selected three times and I was fairly sure wanted juice in the ground to be seen to best effect, but when I didn't pick him last time, he went and won on good ground

So you may be right and they'll probably do a "good job" with the watering anyway.

A very competitive 4yo race at Doncaster today. Rewired ran in the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon and was not disgraced with Lifetime Legend behind but faces 2 from the Aga Khan studs in France. Beraz is having a first outing for Skelton while Vazir disappointed first time for Alan King who also runs Thunder Ahead. Milton Harris also has 2 runners of which Hasty Parisian looks much the best. Lifetime Legend has a 5lb pull for his good claiming rider and looks the value to me.

Some interesting runners sageform, good luck.

One firm is offering four places (without BOG), but I'm just going to stick with standard terms for my two selections.

Fae The Port, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 1.35 Doncaster
Storm Catcher, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 1.35 Doncaster


I have five qualifiers in this - Bashful, Fae The Port, Lifetime Legend, Rewired and Storm Catcher - and I'm going to allow the odds to dictate the selections and take a chance EW on the two biggest priced of them.

I selected Storm Catcher on his debut at Sandown when he finished a well held 4th, but on reflection it probably wasn't a bad first try over hurdles given the winner Forever Blessed had impressed on his hurdles debut at Ffos Las and probably had an excuse when a disappointing favourite for the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow, while the third from Sandown, Hayedo, has since run out an emphatic winner of a maiden hurdle at Hereford.

Storm Catcher still has his stamina to prove for this code and will probably find better opportunities further down the line in handicaps, but his hurdles debut wasn't devoid of promise so gets a speculative vote at a price.

Fae The Port doesn't have the appealing profile of some of these that have switched code, but he's gone to a good yard and Corey McGivern takes off a handy 10lb. He's another with his stamina to prove for this game, but there is encouragement in his pedigree for longer trips as his dam is a half-sister to the Goodwood Cup winner Illustrious Blue, as well as a four time hurdles winner.

Bashful showed some fair form on the level last year and signed off with a long odds-on win over 12f at Kempton in October. He's been bought out of Andrew Balding's yard for 36,000 gns and gelded ahead of his hurdles debut for Oliver Greenall.

My other two qualifiers Rewired and Lifetime Legend were both selected on this thread when finishing runner-up on their hurdles debuts. Rewired has since finished ahead of Lifetime Legend when they finished 4th and 5th in a Class 2 hurdle at Huntingdon last time. Connections of the Lifetime Legend, who has been allotted a mark 13lb superior to that of Rewired's, now reach for a tongue tie and employ a 5lb claimer in the hope of reversing the form.

Of the others, Vazir has much the highest Flat rating of these with an official mark, being rated 89 based on his French form. He disappointed on his hurdles debut for Alan King, but has since undergone a wind op and may appreciate the better ground today.

Like Vazir, Beraz was also trained on the Flat in France by  Alain De Royer-Dupre. His best RPR on the level was similar to Vazir's, and has to be respected having joined Dan Skeleton's yard.

Hasty Parisian is the other one in the market. He seems likely to improve having started out in bumpers and finished a good second on his hurdles debut at Warwick behind one who had previously finished runner-up in the Finale Hurdle. He would appear to hold Alan King's other runner Thunder Road, who finished six lengths behind him at Warwick.

The RP have Lifetime Legend as being officially rated 13lb superior to Rewired, which doesn't appear logical based on their form, and I've just checked the BHA site and they don't appear to have a rating for Lifetime Legend yet.

Lifetime Legend has form figures of 25, would that even qualify him for a mark?

* Rewired's rating of 110 is correct, and evidently two runs and finishing in the first four did qualify him for a mark.

We must be reading the same songsheet George, backed Fae The Port this morning and even picked it in the tipping comp!

Backed Rewired,gone with the speed angle.

Good luck tanglefoot and DG.

And good luck to us both, DG.

Fae The Port doesn't have the 'sexy' profile of some of these having been beaten in a claimer on one of his final starts for Karl Burke, but perhaps a change of scenery, a 10lb claim, and a bit more emphasis on stamina given elements of his pedigree, may help.

Aaaah. Strolled in to the lead and fell. I did lay off but gutted as the rest were all very tired.

10lb claimer thought he was on Pegasus

A bit disappointed the ride,STD gave Rewired,it is so obvious that up the straight u need to get on the stand side rail,and most of the run had the horse on the far side.

Unlucky sageform, looked sure to win.

DG, yep, went off to catch a bus, as one commentator might put it.

As for my other pick, Storm Catcher, who stayed far side in the straight, plugged on but looked like he may benefit from some headgear, particularly as he didn't look straightforward under Flat rules.

Bashful, whose Flat rating was on a par with several of these, could be not be given away in the betting and went out like a light at the top of the straight.

Running P/L: +21.2 pts

Saligo Bay, 1pt win @ 9-1, 4.10 Newbury

A novices hurdle, so perhaps it won't be easy for Saligo Bay taking on older horses on his hurdling debut, some of whom have experience, but a chance is taken on his first start for Gary Moore.

He showed a fair level of form for Roger Charlton, which included a win in a 12f Newbury handicap from Skycutter (who has won a couple of juvenile hurdles) and Flyin' Solo, who both subsequently ran well in the November Handicap. Saligo Bay didn't maintain his progress in his last couple of Flat starts, but he didn't get a clear run over 14f at Catterick and then perhaps the ground was softer than ideal at Yarmouth, which is a slight concern today.

Gary Moore also runs Make My Day, who's officially rated 94 on the Flat and who belatedly makes his stable debut after being bought out of Ralph Beckett's yard for 75,000 gns in October 2020. He's currently the shorter of the pair in the betting and it will be interesting to see how they go in the market closer to the off.

Of the others, perhaps the most intriguing is the 93-rated off the Flat, King Ottakar, who debuts for Nicky Henderson here and holds an entry in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Saligo Bay finished a close up 6th under a hands and heels ride. He was much the weaker of the Moore pair in the betting.

The Henderson SNH entry offered little under an exaggerated hold up ride.

Running P/L: +20.2 pts

Romulan Prince, 1pt EW @ 80-1, 1.00 Market Rasen

I have three qualifiers in this: Glen Again, Fae The Port and Romulan Prince.

I'm going to give a speculative vote to Romulan Prince, who hasn't been running too badly, albeit at a lowly level, round Southwell (AW) of late, and the way he stuck to his task last time over 12f could suggest he's not short of stamina for this switch of code, and he's a full brother to Just Once, a dual winner over hurdles at around three miles.

His five runs on turf when trained by Richard Hughes weren't up to much, but three of them came when qualifying for a mark. The potentially testing surface today is an unknown, but he at least comes here fit from the Flat and there is encouragement in his pedigree for this switch of code.

I selected Fae The Port when he made his debut over hurdles at Doncaster ten days ago when he didn't help himself by doing too much in front under his 10lb claimer. He obviously could do with settling better and today's ground is likely to test his stamina further.

Glen Again was a winner of a 4-runner soft ground handicap at Nottingham in May last year when trained by Mark Johnston, and he ran well in a couple of starts after before his form tailed off in two further starts.  He made his debut for Ian Williams in late October over 13.5f on heavy ground when finishing only 6th of the ten runners. He's had a further four months since in his new surroundings and obviously has to be respected given his peak Flat form and official rating of 83.

Fleurman is the highest rated of these on the Flat and he made a satisfactory start over hurdles at Wetherby last month when finishing third of three finishers behind a couple who are now officially rated around the mid-120s. He was a 12 and 14f winner on the level for Ralph Beckett on good to soft at Salisbury, so he has the credentials for this game and he's entitled to improve for that initial hurdling experience.

Alazwar is trained by Archie Watson but has yet to run on the Flat having had three runs in bumpers. He won the first of them over 13.5f at Huntingdon on good ground and then was third of nine under a penalty when sent off odds-on over the same C/D. His latest start came in a Listed race at Cheltenham when finishing only mid-div on soft ground.

Krypton Gold is only rated 106 after four hurdle starts but at least his fitness and experience may help in the conditions.

Lion Face has been bought out of Roger Charlton's yard for 50,000 gns having a couple on the Flat (12f good & 2m AW), and it will be interesting to see how he goes in the betting on his first start for Laura Mongan.

* Laura Morgan

Glen Again now a NR, so down to 7 runners and two places. 15p Rule 4.

The only one I didn't mention in my little write up was Johnny Estella, who's only rated 52 on the Flat and doesn't look an obvious one on pedigree for the jumps being a No Nay Never / Zebedee cross, but they are soft ground influences and he was a running on second over 6f the only time he's had the chance to race on soft ground so far.

His stable have been going really well of late, so there are a couple of straws to clutch at. So there, given him a mention, cuz there's nowt worse than when the only one you didn't mention goes and wins

Interesting race,George,make it between,
Alazwar,Archie Watson,stable inform and had a recent jumps winner with Staghorn
Lion Face,L.Morgan running at almost 50% win ratio and
Krypton Gold,stable good record at course and the winners is,
Alazwar

Good luck tanglefoot

I have backed Krypton Gold e/w and hope Stuart Edmunds has a good day!

Well done on the place, DG

Romulan Prince offered nothing.

Running P/L: +18.2 pts

Backed

Impulsive One 1.50K
Iceo 3.00K

Good luck DG. Interesting that Paul Nicholls is pitching his two hurdling debutants in at the deep end and allowing Iceo to take on his elders when he could have run in the Adonis.

I've just got the one 'qualifier' in the Adonis and that's Graystone who's done well over hurdles so far. Slight worry that drying ground may not be ideal, and Aidan Coleman will need to get the fractions right if Graystone front runs again, but with four places on offer he gets an EW vote.

Graystone, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 1.50 Kempton (4 PLACES)

Well done George. I didn't have a bet on the race but did think Greystone a place was a value bet. I am not yet convinced that the 4yos are capable of competing with their elders apart from in handicaps. Iceo ran on a bit but was totally outclassed by the first three and they are not particularly good horses.

Cheers sageform, a tiny bit of respite from a poor run of results for the thread.

The horse Anorak mentioned previously, Iroko, again caught the eye staying on and shaping like he's going to want a stiffer test. I wondered if he was being aimed at the Fred Winter but it looks like he hasn't qualified in time / been entered.


Running P/L: +19.6 pts

Hi George,

I'd be surprised now if Iroko was placed in an ordinary race, as I'm sure they'll want to retain his novice status for next season unless he can land a big prize. The 2m 4f novice hurdle on National day might still tempt them, as that's £100k and 4-y-olds get a useful 10lb weight for age allowance. And of course, the trainer's father is the chairman of Aintree!

Hi Anorak,

The Aintree race sounds like a logical next step if he were to run again this season given the trip could be ideal at this stage of his career. And although Lord Daresbury is no longer listed as part owner, I wonder if he's retained a hoof or something given the horse was sent to his son to train.

Here's an interview with Oliver Greenall from before the Finale Hurdle when he was already talking about a novice campaign next season, but the fact they've run him again since could suggest that they're thinking about Aintree.

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2021/December/22/iroko-seeking-grade-one-gold-on-british-bow-at-chepstow

Hi George.  No qualifying races today, so I thought I'd seek your valued opinion on the Noodles juvenile handicap hurdle 2 weeks tomorrow.  Personally I fancy and have backed Bell Ex One from the Nicholls yard.  He has won this handicap thrice before and whilst I realise he does not seem to have any 4yo hurdler to go for the Triumph, this one might be good enough for the Boodles.  I realise there are some classy Irish trained horses entered, but who's to know what the handicapper allots them tomorrow?  Bell Ex One has a handicap rating of 130 and if he deems to engage Angus Cheleda to claim 5lb, he will, effectively be running off 125.  At time of writing he is 20/1 NRNB with the books and 29 on Betfair.  I have him backed 3 points to win and 1 point Each Way first 5, which will get me my total stakes back of placed.  He is Nicholls only entry for the race, by the way.  What do you tnink, George?

Hi ali1959,

Bell Ex One is one I've followed and selected on the thread previously, but I wasn't aware until your post that he had joined Paul Nicholls' yard. There certainly appeared to be room for improvement in his hurdling and if he thrives for the change of scenery there is scope to progress, and physically he looks like he's got the size for this game.

As for his mark of 130, a horse he gave weight and a beating to called Calvados has since been placed in a Listed race and then just been touched off in a handicap off a mark of 118, though not sure it was the deepest of handicaps that one, and the other horse he beat last time, Sea Sessions, won the aforementioned Listed race and was then just touched off under a penalty in another one.

I wonder why he hasn't been seen since October, and his novicey hurdling could be a concern pitched into a race of this nature on his return from a break, but if he turns up, I'd say 20-1 looks a fair price and the stable switch could see his odds shorten.

Good luck.

Thanks, George.  I had it in my mind also, that if he was still trained in Ireland, the handicapper might lump on another 5lb tomorrow, whereas now he is trained in Britain, his mark will remain at 130 and please God, let young Cheleda take 5lbs off.

Britzka, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.50 Cheltenham (6 PLACES)
Bell Ex One, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.50 Cheltenham (6 PLACES)

I have four qualifiers in this: Britzka, Bell Ex One, White Pepper and Skycutter.

With drying ground probably not ideal for White Pepper and a concern about whether Skycutter will settle well enough to see this out, I'll take a chance on the first two named.

Britza is one of five running for the Elliott stable and he's not the most obvious on jockey bookings. He was
a comfortable winner on his hurdles debut at Fairyhouse (yielding to soft) in December in admittedly what probably wasn't the strongest of 3YO hurdles, and then he wasn't disgraced behind Fil Dor on his next start in a Grade 2 on soft ground. Better might have been expected last time at Fairyhouse when sent off 11-8 fav and finishing behind three of today's rivals, when reported by his jockey to have been "flat out all the way".

Britzka has been given a two month break since during which he has undergone wind surgery. He wears first time blinkers today and his Flat form would suggest that better ground may suit.

Bell Ex One makes his debut here for new connections following a £110,000 sale. He still looks open to improvement over hurdles and it will be interesting to see which way he goes for the stable switch. Paul Nicholls has opted to apply first time blinkers, which hopefully will sharpen Bell Ex One's hurdling up.

Good luck George, I have had a £2 win on the only Aga Khan bred, Ebasari, as I always back those. The first winner of the Fred Winter as it was known then was an AK bred trained by Howard Johnson for Alan Shearer which I can remember backing at very big odds. Two other AK breds have won it but not recently.

Good luck sageform.

Of the others, at the prices, I wonder if Forever William might be staying on for a place when most have cried enough.

GL George

I have done Too Friendly e/w 6 places

GL DG

I'm confused, thought it was sageform who liked the Skeleton / Gredley combo ?

I do but it is the sort of race where you could fancy 10 and not get one in the first 6. I will have £2 on Too Friendly now.

Good shout George -thought Bell might just do it .

Ta Manoleeds. Probably could have done with a stronger pace and wasn't done any favours by being carried to the inner at the final flight.

Well done on the place DG.

Running P/L: +22.2 pts

Doctor Parnassus, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 1.30 Cheltenham (4 PLACES)

I've two qualifiers in the Triumph, Doctor Parnassus and Pied Piper.

I'll take a chance on Doctor Parnassus at the prices with four places on offer with a couple of the main firms. This is obviously a much stiffer task than he's faced in winning his two hurdle races so far, but he's looked the part and it remains to be seen where his limitations lie in this sphere.

I have backed Knight Salute as I believe that he is the best UK trained runner but I am quite prepared to see an Irish 123. Pied Piper made a deep impression in January. Doctor Parnassus has also looked good but I am not convinced that Dan Skelton is in great form at the moment.

Good luck sageform

Morning George,

I'll be watching Il Etait Temps with great interest in this - can't be many juveniles that have finished third in a Grade 1 on debut and no surprise to me if he turns that form round today. His sire has a winner of this to his name in Farclas, who finished second in the same Irish Grade 1 and beat the winner at Cheltenham.

I'm guessing that he's running here on the basis that losing your novice status in the Triumph is OK - and if he's beaten today, they'll save him for next season. Nothing more than instinct to go on, but I have a feeling he'll be the best of these in the long term.

Morning Anorak,

Thanks for the analysis. There appears to be plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so this stiffer test should suit.

Got that wrong-first 5 were Irish, rather depressing. I did think that the few GB 4yos that have run in all aged novices have been poor but now we know they all are.

The time wasn't too bad (or at least the winner's wasn't) and I think Doctor Parnassus may want softer ground than he got there. He was in contention for a place between the last two flights but was readily left behind where it mattered.

Running P/L: +20.2 pts

End of Thread Summary

The thread failed to hit the heights of the previous two seasons though did return a modest profit of around 20 pts at the early odds / BOG or around 32 pts at Betfair SP after commission. Gavin was the thread's biggest priced winner at 33-1 (or around 47 at Betfair SP).

Date	Horse	Early Odds / BOG	Stake	finish pos	P/L	BSP Profit - 2% Comm
05-Jun	Space Kid	6.5	1	0	-1	-1
11-Jun	Eagle's Realm	6	1	0	-1	-1
18-Jun	Andonno	5.5	1	0	-1	-1
02-Jul	Eagle's Realm	14	1	0	-1	-1
18-Jul	Eagle's Realm	25	1 EW	0	-2	-2
18-Jul	Baby Sham	25	1 EW	0	-2	-2
03-Aug	Whyzzat	12	1	1	12	14.78
23-Aug	Gavin	100	1 EW	0	-2	-2
23-Aug	Baby Sham	18	1 EW	0	-2	-2
27-Aug	Bell Ex One	8	1	2	-1	-1
01-Sep	Boulette	7.5	1	2	-1	-1
01-Sep	Gavin	66	1 EW	0	-2	-2
05-Sep	Don't Look back	12	1	0	-1	-1
10-Sep	Catch Kodi	100	1 EW	0	-2	-2
19-Sep	Bell Ex One	7	1	1	7	4.85
02-Oct	White Pepper	10	1 EW	0	-2	-2
02-Oct	Xeres	12	1 EW	0	-2	-2
06-Oct	Genuflex	9	1	2	-1	-1
23-Oct	White Pepper	7	1 EW	1	8.4	9.73
24-Oct	Gavin	40	1 EW	0	-2	-2
28-Oct	The Guvnor	25	1 EW	0	-2	-2
29-Oct	Genuflex	10	1	2	-1	-1
10-Nov	The Guvnor	9	1	0	-1	-1
13-Nov	Gavin	33	1 EW	1	39.6	55.95
14-Nov	Pride Of Qatar	33	1 EW	0	-2	-2
14-Nov	Baby Sham	20	1	0	-1	-1
19-Nov	Outback Boy	10	1	0	-1	-1
23-Nov	Rebel Step	14	1	F	-1	-1
27-Nov	Oot Ma Way	50	1 EW	0	-2	-2
28-Nov	Outback Boy	33	1 EW	0	-2	-2
02-Dec	Tommaso	14	1 EW	3	1.8	1.28
03-Dec	Storm Catcher	33	1 EW	0	-2	-2
06-Dec	Oot Ma Way	33	1 EW	0	-2	-2
07-Dec	Telefina	150	1 EW	0	-2	-2
11-Dec	Galah	40	1 EW	3	7	4.49
14-Dec	Tommaso	7.5	1	0	-1	-1
26-Dec	Baby Sham	22	1 EW	3	3.4	2.76
27-Dec	Rewired	9	1	2	-1	-1
27-Dec	Lifetime Legend	12	1 EW	2	1.7	-0.21
29-Dec	Pump It Up	14	1 EW	2	1.8	1.17
30-Dec	Escobedo	20	1 EW	0	-2	-2
07-Jan	Tommaso	10	1	2	-1	-1
22-Jan	Doctor Parnassus	4.5	1	1	4.5	3.53
23-Jan	Winterwatch	12	1	0	-1	-1
25-Jan	Baby Sham	14	1 EW	0	-2	-2
30-Jan	Coolcullen	33	1 EW	4	-2	-2
31-Jan	Gamigin	8.5	1	0	-1	-1
03-Feb	Harlem Soul	14	1 EW	0	-2	-2
09-Feb	Zuraig	5	1	0	-1	-1
09-Feb	Coolcullen	11	1 EW	0	-2	-2
10-Feb	Fae The Port	28	1 EW	0	-2	-2
10-Feb	Storm Catcher	50	1 EW	0	-2	-2
12-Feb	Saligo Bay	9	1	0	-1	-1
22-Feb	Romulan prince	80	1 EW	0	-2	-2
26-Feb	Graystone	12	1 EW	3	1.4	1.65
15-Mar	Britzka	20	1 EW	0	-2	-2
15-Mar	Bell Ex One	28	1 EW	3	4.6	4.23
18-Mar	Doctor Parnassus	20	1 EW	0	-2	-2
					20.2	32.21

I think it's an incredible achievement to get a profit in this category when (a) a lot of runners are running for the first time and (b) you never know how much a horse than ran down the field will come on the next time out . Gavin winning at 33/1 / 47bsp made the difference between a loss and a profit . If you look at Hugh Taylors results, it's often the very few  long price winners (albeit that if he claims a 33/1 winner , it is usually around 16/1 sp) that make the difference. Stating the obvious but noone should be put off by the price if they have a good enough reason to back it.

WD George, interesting as always. My 3-4yo highlight was giving Knight Salute another chance @ Aintree.

Manoleeds, it's a relatively small pool of horses in the juvenile hurdle division anyway, and the percentage of them that I have a Flat 'notebook' run for will be a small percentage of a small percentage, and I'm wholly dependent that the right sort (eg have the stamina) are the ones that switch code. So all things considered these juvenile hurdler threads should be doomed to be failure!

Well done with Knight Salute, DG.

WD GB
Always an interesting read
Cya for the next one

George,

Just to point out that Illico Des Places, mentioned druing the winter after moving to Tom Symonds off the back of a wide margin win in France, was sold yesterday at Doncaster sales for £5,000. He probably cost a six figure sum six or seven months ago!

Looking at it's form 5k looks way too much, the 3 it beat in France are probably in the food chain by now!

Anorak, thanks for the sales info. Looking at the form comments, reminds me of how an ex-pundit used to describe certain horses: "wired to the moon" and "got a hole in it". Broken dreams and all that...

Cheers Mad'

Well it can't be too long until the new juvenile hurdle season starts, Hexham in early June? I can look forward to seeing which of my notebooked 55-rated maidens off the Flat show up