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GEORGE.B
03 Jun 21 23:38
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Date Joined: 14 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 53,549 | Blogger: GEORGE.B's blog
The thread returns for a third season, with the first race at Hexham on Saturday.

The selection process is straightforward, I will have a "notebook" entry on the Flat for all horses selected.

If I have more than one qualifier, then I will usually allow the odds to dictate the selection, or if the prices allow then I may take two against the field.

As ever, there will be no hiding place, with the P / L updated after every runner Scared

The odds posted will be those on offer on oddschecker at the time of posting.

As I will need all the help I can get, B.O.G will apply.

The results from the previous two seasons can be found here:

2019/20

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/
94102/31592547/georges-juvenile-hurdler---thread?pg=11

2020/21

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/
94102/31657123/juvenile-hurdle-selections---2020-21-nh-season?pg=5

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Replies: 363
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 Jun 21 09:34
Space Kid, 1pt win @ 13-2, 3.15 Hexham

I have just the one qualifier in this and that is Space Kid, whose sole win to date from twelve starts came on Tapeta, but he seems versatile regarding surface, and he comes here in fair form having finished runner-up over 10f on good to soft ground on his latest start at Beverley.

The winner and the third from that race have both been beaten since, but I think both had excuses.
Space Kid seems to stay 12f on Polytrack and 10f on turf, so he does need to prove he has the stamina for this, albeit this may not be a truly run contest.

Koi Dodville is currently the short priced favourite, on his debut for David Pipe. He won a soft ground French handicap over 10f in April, before finishing runner-up in a claimer at St Cloud on good ground, for which he was given an RPR of 74.

Of those with an official Flat rating, Percy Willis is top rated at 71, which is 7lb superior to Space Kid's rating.

Of the others, Inferno Sacre would appear to have the most appealing jumps pedigree, being a half-brother to Emir Sacree, who won a 2m5f Ascot handicap hurdle off a mark 125 in December, and being out of a mare who is a half-sister to Sprinter Sacre. His Trainer Nigel Hawke also runs another debutant in McGregors Charge, and it will be interesting to see how they compare in the betting closer to the off.

Family Time was sent off at 200-1 in a backend maiden at Newbury last season on heavy ground and was never sighted after blowing the break, but his trainer Alex Hales has done well with juvenile hurdlers in recent seasons, and while he's currently a big outsider again, it will be interesting to see if there is any market support around for him.

Saramenha only had a couple of starts for Ralph Beckett before being sold 15,000 gns. She was well beaten on her debut for Jamie Snowden in a Nottingham maiden, and has been allocated a Flat rating of 59.
By:
Pilsudski
When: 05 Jun 21 10:47
Thanks for input,GEORGE.
By:
jumper3
When: 05 Jun 21 11:38
Good luck. Followed the two previous threads. Sure you'll find at least one of those longer priced winners, and a fair few of the smaller ones too. Good luck mate.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 05 Jun 21 15:37
heers, unfortunately not off to a winning start.

Space Kid didn't get home on the track, having looked set for a place at least as three or four them started to pull clear. He wasn't always fluent which didn't help. Going forward, not sure scope wise, as he looked dwarfed down at the start by his rivals.

Family Time, who unusually (?) for one from this stable had made his debut at Newbury on the Flat, has plenty of size about him and ran well to be second, finding only the more street-wise French import too good for him.

Running P/L: -1
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Jun 21 08:56
Eagle's Realm, 1pt win @ 6-1, 6.15 Aintree

Eagle's Realm is my only qualifier in this. He was formerly owned by Cheveley Park and trained by Sir Mark Prescott, for whom he raced six times before being moved on for 20,000 guineas.

He makes his debut here for Graeme McPherson, and while he needs to prove his effectiveness on turf, he should be fine stamina-wise, given the way he stuck to his task over 10f as a 2YO when finishing runner-up at Chelmsford last October. It is also encouraging that his sire Free Eagle had three individual juvenile hurdle winners last season from not many runners.

Koi Dodville makes a quick reappearance under a 6lb penalty after winning the opening juvenile hurdle of the season at Hexham last Saturday. He had Saramenha (who reopposes and wears first time blinkers) well behind in fifth.

Of those with a domestic official rating on the Flat, the top rated is Spanish Hustle, a six race maiden on the Flat for Karl Burke, who is rated 2lb superior to Eagle's Realm, and makes his debut here for Chris Gordon after being sold for 10,000 guineas.

Boundsy Boy had just the three starts for Richard Fahey as a 2YO before being sold cheaply. He did show some ability on his sole AW start at Newcastle and has been allotted a mark of 60. Hugh Taylor in his column yesterday was commenting about this one's sire Awtaad, and saying how his progeny seem to be doing better as 3YOs than they did as 2YOs, so maybe there is hope yet for Boundsy Boy, who has been gelded, undergone a wind op and wears a tongue tie for the first time.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 11 Jun 21 12:28
I was very unimpressed with the favs win lto and would def be a layer at odds on.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Jun 21 12:43
Good luck DG.

On a day of fairly quick times at Hexham, his compared well to the older horses over the same trip, and he pulled well clear with the runner-up.
He's got the fitness and experience against horses coming off breaks and yet to jump a hurdle in public, so I'm not sure what you have running for you, though obviously I hope my pick is ready to roll, and admittedly from a small sample, Eagle's Realm's sire is doing all right in these races.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 11 Jun 21 12:48
George, it is not the kind of race I bet in but if it was, it would be a lay.
By:
Virgin
When: 11 Jun 21 14:11
Good Luck George Wink .....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Jun 21 18:48
Ta Virgin.

Unfortunately he proved no match for the fav, and couldn't even claim second place, as the strapping looking Boundsy Boy comfortably saw him off for that position.

Eagle's Realm travelled and jumped fine, so unless he needed the run or there is a stamina issue, he looked fairly limited there tbh.

Running P/L: -2
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 18 Jun 21 07:13
ttt
By:
sageform
When: 18 Jun 21 08:48
Hi George, a motley bunch at Market Rasen 12.40 today. Knotty Ash made 45,000 as a 2yo but has never run. He won't need to be very good to beat this lot. It could be good or good/soft by then.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Jun 21 11:25
Morning sageform. I wasn't going to bother with a selection because it was hard to see why my Hexham pick Space Kid should reverse the form with Family Time, but Space Kid is now a NR, so with not much confidence I've gone with my other qualifier.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Jun 21 11:28
Andonno, 1pt win @ 11-2, 12.40 Market Rasen

I now have just one qualifier in this following the withdrawal of Space Kid, and that is Andonno.

He didn't go on after making a bright start to his career for Mark Johnston, and had to be dropped in class to a seller, where he was well in on the figures, to get his head back in front.

Andonno has to prove his stamina and that he isn't just an AW horse, because both his wins have come at Lingfield on Polytrack and his two turf runs have been dismal. On the plus side he comes here on the back of a win, and he was initially rated 74 on the level, so has ability if he can transfer that to the turf.

Family Time ran well on his hurdles debut at Hexham to be second behind one who has since followed up under a penalty, and as that was just his second career start, he looks open to further progress for a trainer who has done well with juvenile hurdlers in recent times.

The obvious unknown is the Dan Skelton trained Knotty Ash, who despite being a Flat-bred and £45K 2YO purchase, is with a jumps yard and makes his racecourse debut here. He's been put in short and it will be interesting to see if the apparent early support is sustained nearer to the off.
By:
sageform
When: 18 Jun 21 12:47
That was easy enough in the end although he looked a bit outpaced down the hill into the straight. Time will tell if they are any good.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Jun 21 13:00
Well done sageform, you summed it up nicely in your initial post.

As for Adonno, he looks like he has the size for the game, but another abysmal turf run. Jonathan Neesom said that he'd  won over 12f on the Flat so should stay, but the time of that 12f seller was embarrassingly slow, so I doubt it was much of a test at the trip.
Fair play to Neesom though regarding his pre-race comments regarding Rakish Paddy, he might have prompted a few to back him in the 3TP market where he was about an 8-1 chance.

At least we got a chuckle before the race when Neesom said that one publication had described Knotty Ash as "much improved" despite never having run before. David Fitzgerald pointed out he'd probably been looking at the sire's name, Most Improved Blush

Not a great start Sad

Running P/L: -3
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 21 Jun 21 10:29
Have had an e/w interest in Rakish Paddy(25s) at Chepstow 1.55
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Jun 21 12:34
Good luck DG.

There is a juvenile hurdle at Newton Abbot but I don't have any qualifiers.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Jul 21 09:40
Eagle's Realm, 1pt win @ 14-1, 3.05 Newton Abbot

I selected Eagle's Realm when he made his hurdles debut at Aintree behind Koi Dodville, who he reopposes here on 6lb better terms. He would appear to be up against it given he was beaten 34 lengths by the David Pipe-trained runner, so the straw to clutch at is that Eagle's Realm is entitled to come on for that initial hurdling experience and his first run for eight months.

I wasn't anticipating stamina being an issue for Eagle's Realm given he's by a stallion who sired three juvenile hurdle winners from not many runners last season, and this one had seemed to stay ten furlongs as a 2YO, but I suppose it is a query now given how far he ended up beaten at Aintree, unless it was down to fitness and needing the run.

Of the others,  Moneykenny and Tara Iti have at least won a race on the Flat, and have joined respected stables. They are both rated 65 on the level, the same  as Eagle's Realm.

Moneykenny, who has joined Olly Murphy from Andrew Balding for 26,000 gns, won an 11f novice median auction on the Fibresand at Southwell in April, before finishing an easy enough to forgive well held third (behind one who subsequently followed up) over 14f at Wetherby, given the race was run in atrocious conditions and the remainder of the card was abandoned.

Tara Iti has joined Gary Moore from Ed Dunlop for 17,500 gns. He won his final start as a 2YO over one mile in heavy ground at Leicester, but has seemingly disappointed in two starts this season. However, the AW surface might not have suited on the first of them, and last time at Windsor he probably ran better than it looked given he was keen on the pace and led over one furlong out before weakening inside the final furlong. All his six starts for Ed Dunlop  were over a mile, but being by Sixties Icon out of a 12f winner, his pedigree would suggest he should stay further, particularly given how well he saw the mile trip out on heavy ground as 2YO.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Jul 21 15:32
Eagle's Realm bizarrely went odds on in the run, it must have been some way out cuz he was headed before the straight. He did actually stick on after looking like he was going to drop out the back of the telly, so think he's just limited rather than bereft of the requisite stamina, unless he's going to appreciate more cut in the ground.

Moneykenny tanked into the race and looked like winning for much of the straight but a mistake at the last didn't help and the winner was on top at the finish.

Scrappy Jack, who looks like he has plenty of size about him, was nibbled at in the betting and had evidently derived plenty of benefit from his debut run under his 10lb claimer.

Koi Dodville wasn't beaten far under his double penalty.

Tara iti, who was dropped in, offered nothing on his hurdles debut for Gary Moore, but we know from his Flat form that he handles heavy ground well, so maybe there will be a day for him for when the ground is more favourable and the money arrives.

Running P/L: -4
By:
Twoboyz
When: 02 Jul 21 17:22
What about the newton abbott race the time before
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Jul 21 20:02
Shocking isn't it, Twoboyz?

A six runner race, I discuss the chance of 4 of them, but not the 2 supposed 'rags' !

Out of interest, I have now watched Scrappy Jack's hurdles debut, and not helped by some sloppy hurdling, he was never in the race, but when the camera angle changed in the straight he could be seen making some late headway and was noted by commentator Richard Hoiles as "having got the hang of things late and stayed on stoutly".

So I suppose there had been positives to take from it.
By:
Twoboyz
When: 02 Jul 21 20:32
Good stuff
By:
mrcombustible
When: 02 Jul 21 21:14
Tara iti burst a blood vessel
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 Jul 21 23:28
Thank you Mr Combustible, I've noted that down for future reference.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Jul 21 11:39
Eagle's Realm, 1pt EW @ 25-1 , 2.05 Newton Abbot
Baby Sham, 1pt EW @ 25-1 , 2.05 Newton Abbot

I have two qualifiers in this and as they're both biggish prices, both are selected EW.

Eagle's Realm has been selected twice already on this thread and appears held by a few of these on last-time-out Newton Abbot form. I was hoping to see if some cut in the ground would help but not much chance of that now with drying conditions, so the straws to clutch at are a first time tongue tie and perhaps being ridden with a bit more restraint this time (he traded odds-on in-running when leading before the home straight).

Baby Sham has mainly been campaigned on the AW, but I did think one of her two turf starts at Newmarket last season wanted marking up due to possibly not racing on the best part of the track and not getting the clearest of runs.

Stamina-wise, she seems to stay 10f on the AW, and being by Sir Percy with stamina on the dam's side, there are grounds for optimism that she will stay this trip over hurdles.
She's returning from five months off, and has joined Seamus Mullins from Stuart Williams, so may need the run and initial hurdling experience, but she is at least unexposed on turf.

There doesn't much look much between Scrappy Jack, Moneykenny, Koi Dodville and Fred Bear on their C/D form from earlier this month with just 4 lengths covering them.

Scrappy Jack now has a 6lb penalty and a 3lb reduction in the rider's claim, but as he still looks inexperienced, there may be more to come from this sizable sort.

If claims are taken into account, Koi Dodville is 11lb better off with Scrappy Jack for just under a 3l beating.

Fred Bear did well to finish so close considering he didn't hurdle very well and any improvement in that department puts him right in the mix.

Moneykenny looked the winner for much of the straight but a mistake at the last didn't help and Scrappy Jack was well on top at the line.

McGregors Charge, Oneonechop and Thistleton are all entitled to improve from their debut runs over hurdles.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 18 Jul 21 14:30
Market got it wrong regarding the re-opposing four, as Scrappy Jack and Fred Bear were the ones who fought out the finish.

As for my two, the only hope for Eagle's Realm is that it's a ground issue. He will at least get a low mark now and a nice wfa allowance in handicaps.

Baby Sham was a filly up against males, and after making some promising headway round the outer (traded around 3-1 IR), she weakened out of it. Not sure if that was through not having the stamina for it or lack of a recent run, but at least she may find easier opportunities in filly only juvenile hurdles.

Running P/L: -8
By:
sageform
When: 18 Jul 21 14:58
Disappointing fav but at least I was right that Oneonechop will never stay 2 miles. I don't think that we have seen a decent 3yo yet.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 Aug 21 10:35
Whyzzat, 4.35 Roscommon, 1pt win @ 12-1

It's the first 3YO hurdle of the season in Ireland and it looks an open affair.

My only qualifier is Whyzzat, whose run in a claimer on disadvantageous terms at Ballinrobe in June I gave a nark up to, when he was second to Alice Kitty who also runs here. He's run okay to be placed in two of his three starts since, and now goes hurdling. He seems to stay 10f on the Flat, but being by Dark Angel, stamina is a definite query for this game.

Denis Hogan also runs Grand Revival, who he rides himself, while experienced 7lb conditional Shane Mulcahy rides my selection.  I don't know if there is anything to be read into the riding arrangements.

Of those with an official rating on the Flat, Mystery Show (81), Eternal Presence (72) and Alice Kitty (74) are the three that stand out and unsurprisingly head the betting currently.

Noel Meade runs a couple, Grey Angel and Helvic Princess. The latter was second of thirteen off a mark of 57 in a 10f handicap at Cork in April.

Eternal Presence's trainer Joseph O'Brien also runs Stand Staunch, who has his first career start today.
By:
chavman
When: 03 Aug 21 10:47
For some reason I can’t quite put my finger on this thread reminds me very much of stewy tricast thread Confused
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 Aug 21 10:57
In that case chav you're easily confused. Perhaps it's early onset of dementia?

I've chosen to present it in a sort of 'spotlight' summary way, but the selection is unequivocal, and is always made clear at the top of the post, name, race, stake, odds. Hth.
By:
chavman
When: 03 Aug 21 16:43
WD George Cool

Tricast thread still better though imo
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 Aug 21 16:52
As described on another thread chav, absolute carnage at the first hurdle, then Helvic Princess slipped up on the bend when still travelling well.

Looked like one of the jocks was still be tended to on the ground when they came back round. Hopefully everyone will be OK.
By:
Cork Langer
When: 03 Aug 21 17:05
You might explain why this is on the thread/forum, surely it should have been posted under the Irish section according to the way your mind thinks, wd on the winner though
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 Aug 21 17:11
Until today, all selections on this thread had been in British races, so it's on the correct forum.

But watch out Cork Langer for my winter season Dundalk thread on the Irish forum, it's going to be an absolute cracker!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Aug 21 11:58
Running P/L: +4 pts
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Aug 21 12:08
There are two divisions of a juvenile hurdle at Stratford today.

My only qualifier in division one is Lanika, whose run in an AW race a while back I gave a mark up to. She has run ok since at her level to place at Windsor over 11.5f, without fully convincing with her stamina, and on Flat ratings she looks up against it, as her odds of 150-1 would suggest. So I'll pass on division one.

Gavin, 1pt EW @ 100-1, 5.35 Stratford
Baby Sham 1pt EW @ 18-1, Stratford


I have two qualifiers in division two, Gavin and Baby Sham, and I'm going to select them both EW.

Gavin ran well to be third of seven over 12f at Salisbury in April (g/f) having set a decent pace. The second Bobby Kennedy won on his next start at Bath when reversing the form with the winner Tajdid, and has since run well back at Salisbury.

Gavin's two runs since haven't been up to much, disappointing at Bath when well supported in the betting, and when last seen in late May at Salisbury over 12f, when probably paying the price for chasing a tearaway leader.

He has since been sold out of Rod Millman's yard for just 3,500 gns, and he has plenty to find with nearly all his rivals if Flat ratings are any guide, but I think the run at Salisbury shows he does have some ability, and the way he kept on having set a decent pace would suggest he should be fine stamina-wise for this test.

Baby Sham's sole win to date came on the AW in January over a mile at Chelmsford when trained by Stuart Williams, but she has only had three chances on turf, including when I thought she shaped a bit better than the bare result in a nursery on heavy ground over 7f at Newmarket last October.

She was returning from five months off when making her hurdles debut for Seamus Mullins at Newton Abbot last month when not hurdling fluently, but making some promising headway round the outside before weakening before two out. The first two, Scrappy Jack and Fred Bear, who had previous hurdling experience, run in division one today.

Baby Sham has her stamina to prove, but her pedigree is encouraging in that regard, and she's entitled to come on for that initial hurdling experience.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Aug 21 17:57
Oh dear, not good. Gavin had his few moments of glory when he pulled his way to the front and went clear, but the game was up after jumping the second last (which was still some way from home) and he folded tamely. On that evidence he'd be better off back in a 0-55 on the Flat.

Nothing from Baby Sham who was never in it.

Well that's the thread's profit blown Sad

Running P/L: 0 pts
By:
TheAnorak
When: 24 Aug 21 10:21
Morning George,

It seems as if Gary Moore has given up on Tara Iti as a hurdler, mentioned earlier on this thread. He's entered for a 3yo seller at Goodwood on Sunday.
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