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punts
25 Apr 21 00:05
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 4,574 | Blogger: punts's blog
AOB has good stats at Navan for these races (3yo and 4yo+) and R L Moore is there.

Aidan in decent form so have done a trixie for some interest:

15:20 Lipizzaner: 11/8

15:50 Willow: 29/20

16:20 Santiago: 1/1

£15 returns about £105 (365).

Left out the Maiden. Don't like First time out.

I did this last week and was lucky enough to collect (they had a 4 timer!) so I'm hoping they have another good day...

GL
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Report punts April 25, 2021 12:27 AM BST
RE: The Maiden (13:50).

I'd be surprised if AOB wins this (not impossible). Showcasing first time out is not great.

Joseph runs Swift One (in his mothers colours I think?). They had a 2yo first time out winner in the week and he is in decent form.

Swift One is by No Nay Never who has good stats at the course for his 2yos (5/18 or 28%).

Timeform says:

Foaled May 21. No Nay Never colt. Brother to 2-y-o 6f winner Yes Always and half-brother to 2-y-o 5f-7f winner Damselfly and winner up to 11f Cosmic Horizon, both useful. Dam 10.7f winner. Considered.

I have backed it small at 11/1.
Report punts April 25, 2021 8:56 AM BST
11/1 on Joseph's Swift One looks good - now 8.6 Devil
Report punts April 25, 2021 11:52 AM BST
Amazingly Swift One is now back to 10/1..

I notice Donnacha's is being backed as well (Masseto).

One of them will win it.. Laugh

Bit of a minefield to be fair.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY April 25, 2021 11:54 AM BST
Be suprised if all 3 of those wins.

They don't look forgone conclusions imo
Report punts April 25, 2021 11:56 AM BST
Aye Tony, it's tough to get these up but you never know.
Report the dealer April 25, 2021 12:05 PM BST

Apr 25, 2021 -- 2:56AM, punts wrote:


11/1 on Joseph's Swift One looks good - now 8.6


Bit early to be judging betfair markets at that time.  There is only £14k in it now, can't have been much when you posted.

Report BULLET TOOTH TONY April 25, 2021 12:08 PM BST
I think Williow is a shocking price
Report punts April 25, 2021 12:09 PM BST
yes dealer, it's difficult to judge but there you go. 

I look well in advance to try and get what I think is value
Report the dealer April 25, 2021 12:11 PM BST
You may well still have but you won't know till off time
Report punts April 25, 2021 12:14 PM BST
dealer: It's not an exact science and I have no inside info just my own judgement and analysis

It's not easy
Report swiftynifty April 25, 2021 12:19 PM BST
punts, the other day you were talking up Caravaggio's sire stats, so Joseph's other runner could be the one in the maiden.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY April 25, 2021 12:19 PM BST
Talacre 9/1, much rather play 5/2 t place then willow 7/4, the former has already beaten the latter.
Report punts April 25, 2021 12:22 PM BST
swifty: It might win but a) No Nay Never are better (proven.. Caravaggio has only had 4 runners!) and b) Declan is on it so a few pointers there.

Would not surprise me though...
Report undertaker April 25, 2021 12:23 PM BST
I have done 3 in the maiden, Andreas Vesalius (Caravaggio), Masseto (Territories) and New Star (New Bay), gl if playing.
Report swiftynifty April 25, 2021 12:23 PM BST
The 3 O'Brien's have made these races no go areas now, if they ever were.
Report punts April 25, 2021 12:25 PM BST
GL undertaker. Definitely good value to be had here.

swifty: It's a minefield but so is nearly every race. Whatever your comfortable with I guess
Report swiftynifty April 25, 2021 12:30 PM BST
punts, unless you've info or you're the luckiest punter on earth you'll go skint betting pre-race in races like this. Maybe take a view and throw a few quid in-running 2f out if it's looking ok, otherwise don't touch them with a bargepole imv.
Report punts April 25, 2021 12:32 PM BST
swifty: We keep sensible in races like this(:

I find them fascinating and if I get it right I will collect a biggie
Report punts April 25, 2021 1:52 PM BST
W/D undertaker!
Report Smoggy April 25, 2021 1:53 PM BST
Mass ego did well to win that. Dwelt badly in the stalls.
Report Smoggy April 25, 2021 1:54 PM BST
Masseto
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! April 25, 2021 1:55 PM BST
Weld hoss finished well

Wink
Report kavvie April 25, 2021 1:55 PM BST
did manning stop riding on the second when he hit the front?
Report MJK April 25, 2021 2:55 PM BST
His non shortie Finest. 6/1 to 14/1. Finishes last.
Report punchestown April 25, 2021 2:58 PM BST
His non shortie Finest. 6/1 to 14/1. Finishes last.

"They" are very very good at this,always just before the off the real damage is done.
Report punts April 25, 2021 3:25 PM BST
Seems to be a day for 2nd favourites
Report hulk23 April 25, 2021 3:50 PM BST
Willows my 2nd special today, for the double. How far Cool
Report hulk23 April 25, 2021 3:53 PM BST
jesus, what was going on there SadCry
Report punts April 25, 2021 3:53 PM BST
Woah ... she was beaten a long way from home
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY April 25, 2021 3:59 PM BST
She was a shocking price, however quite a few got caught out there. Draw a line through that form
Report differentdrum April 25, 2021 4:00 PM BST
3/3 for the bookmakers. Putrid.

These races are probably like a classic to the smaller trainer. They are prepared and ridden to win, not come on 10 lengths next time. 

You begin to wonder if Santa Barbara is just beating up rubbish.
Report punts April 25, 2021 4:26 PM BST
make it 4/4 DD!

Really odd for him not to strike.
Report Vince_Bluett April 25, 2021 4:28 PM BST
The winner went from 6.00-29.00 before the off! Shocked
Report differentdrum April 25, 2021 4:28 PM BST
It doesn't surprise me. Had a few winners, but sent out plenty of junk as well.

How can anyone be confident for Guineas weekend?
Report carrot1960 April 25, 2021 4:30 PM BST
Forget the odds on shots , the lack of money for his other runners says the stable is just going through the motions
Report tanglefoot April 25, 2021 4:31 PM BST
Slow Motion,but has form for these days.
Report Mat22 April 25, 2021 4:37 PM BST
Bookies offering 13/8 Santa Barbara 1000 Guineas from a Maiden into Group 1 Laugh
Crazy price no wonder the bookies are loaded.
Report differentdrum April 25, 2021 5:24 PM BST
She is 13/8 purely because the trainer has bigged it up more than any horse I can remember. The actual form is total rubbish. It wasn't close to being a good maiden.

Obviously, he is quite prepared to look a complete plank if it trails home.
Report punchestown April 25, 2021 7:14 PM BST
They got the lot whoever knew about the condition of these animals,an absolute skinner.
Report Pilsudski April 26, 2021 11:17 AM BST
Quite,DD.Santa Barbara will no doubt be the best miler he has ever had.After Gleneagles and Churchill and................
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! April 26, 2021 1:17 PM BST
NAAS -part 2

Devil
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! April 26, 2021 1:26 PM BST
carrots RESTORED

Laugh
Report Pilsudski April 26, 2021 1:29 PM BST
What a joke stable !
Report Tiger Tiger April 26, 2021 1:33 PM BST
Its not a joke stable ffs, that's 4 two year old winners from just 5 runners so far this season, look and ye shall find.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! April 26, 2021 1:38 PM BST
You should remember the stable is divide into 2 stables
Separate block for the 2 year olds

Might explain the youngsters on fire

Wink
Report MJK April 26, 2021 5:17 PM BST
Clear that the ones expected/wanted are being ridden up with the pace like the Curragh last week. Winner earlier up with the pace, rest held up. Yesterday all held up. You in running players must be cleaning up.
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