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Tarooq
12 Apr 21 16:47
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Date Joined: 08 May 14
| Topic/replies: 418 | Blogger: Tarooq's blog
Bent might not be accurate or fair, but like a lot of the Irish stuff is it even worth looking at form anymore?

You can spend 8 hours the day before studying form and find zero winners. Don't do that myself personally, but have heard this from a few pundits/pros who return duck eggs with their selections.

Any thoughts?

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Replies: 30
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 16:59
5.00 at Redcar. Has had a few okay runs, but shouldn't be s short as it is here. Word was it's being prepared for a decent turf season after getting a good handicapped on the AW. That shouldn't really be the basis for backing a horse..
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 17:00
Amsby*
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Apr 21 17:01
So are you following these pundits/pros as you put it tips wise?

Or are you just following the tips in the paper?
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 17:10
I'm not following tips or even betting much on racing right now, just watching and listening. But trying to figure out if it's even worth it anymore as there seem to be fewer and fewer worthwhile betting opportunities.

Just wondering if others are finding things difficult too.
By:
onlooker
When: 12 Apr 21 17:25
Not the best time of the year - Taroog for Form Study and subsequent 'across the board' punting.

Jumpers  winding down - and running on Drier ground that they have been (and attaining said Form) during the Winter

Flat Turf not got going properly - and does not until after Guineas meeting - with every 3-yr-old having to prove that it has 'Trained on' - no matter how good it was as a Juvenile ... Be wary, therefore,  at the upcoming, usually over-excitedly, consequently  overrated Craven meeting - as most races are for 3-yr-olds.

All-Weather racing has completely changed the Spring Flat Turf Calendar - and not for the better ... But to go into greater detail would be far too frustrating and evoke rather resentful memories of halcyon days gone by. Sad
By:
hulk23
When: 12 Apr 21 17:38
when the trainers start telling the stewards it was because the jockey became dehydrated, and they say they thought it was something like that, you'll know it's getting close to the Irish stuff ...
By:
howard
When: 12 Apr 21 17:44
do your form study and then look at horses that should not be quite so short.
By:
the.mad.dog.man
When: 12 Apr 21 17:45
been bent ever since betfair come along
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 17:49
I did try and factor the time of year and the prolonged period of bad ground we had this jumps season, but even when we finally got some decent ground it didn't really change much. I just don't ever remember things ever being this bad.

Winners/losers seem to mostly occur now when the trainer/jockey want it. In most cases it's more about them than the actual horse.
By:
howard
When: 12 Apr 21 17:51
yeah but how could we even guess when bookies alone had their cards marked ? Don't say in the good old days a big percentage of form students made a profit... very few did.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Apr 21 17:56
Sorry tarooq I’m confused you’ve started a thread on British racing being bent and all the tipsters are struggling.

So what makes Irish racing bent? and what sort of betting opportunities are you looking for, that we’re there in the past for you as you put it?

ie this used to give me betting opportunity and now this opportunity has disappeared otherwise I can’t understand what you are probing at?

The pundit on the telly isn’t going to help you, if that is what you are looking for.

Kindly explain if possible thanks tarooq.
By:
hulk23
When: 12 Apr 21 17:58
in the good old days jockeys & trainers weren't 'brand ambassadors' for bookies.
By:
howard
When: 12 Apr 21 18:03
Tarooq , if you are looking at average/poor h'cap races most of the winners are either lightly raced/unexposed or have backclass. There are so many of these races now that trainers play them better than ever. Recent form in the class doesn't count in as many races as it once did.  Punters have to adapt.
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 18:07
Harry I asked for thoughts, not looking for an analysis of what I'm doing. If your opinion is nothing has changed or is any different over the past few years then please let me know.
By:
robo
When: 12 Apr 21 18:09
Tarooq, the thing that punters should adapt to is that if you back a horse and he drifts like a barge , then you can stick your finger up your arrse and have a good smell when you pull it back down . Another thing is if you think a horse you fancy is way overpriced, then lay it for your bolllox. Long term it will be a much better move than backing it
By:
k sera sera
When: 12 Apr 21 18:10
The racing establishment and bookies have always been in collusion. The betting masses are just canon fodder to keep the industry going and the punting public has to lose more than they win in order to keep the racing industry a viable concern. If the majority of punters were to start making money and became profitable through betting the whole system would collapse.

No way the establishment will allow that to happen!
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 18:34
@Howard To be fair I didn't mention profit. I mentioned worthwhile betting opportunities, so something like a consistent place horse on a losing run, which is now running on favourable ground. I have no issues making that kinda bet and losing if the horse runs it race.

Finding horses that are going to run to form however seems more difficult than actually finding winner now.
By:
onlooker
When: 12 Apr 21 18:39
With respect - tarooq - and don't mean to be derogatory - But ...

I would NOT consider - "a consistent place horse on a losing run" - to be - " worthwhile betting opportunities" ...

Quite the opposite, in fact.
By:
punts
When: 12 Apr 21 18:47
Listen to onlooker. Good posts(16:25) 

It's not easy this time of year. Give it a month
By:
harry callaghan
When: 12 Apr 21 19:09
Harry I asked for thoughts, not looking for an analysis of what I'm doing. If your opinion is nothing has changed or is any different over the past few years then please let me know.



With respect tarooq I’m not a mind reader. If you are asking is the game is hard, yes it is and always has been that should be clear to anyone betting horses.

I asked you what has changed for you in regards what betting opportunities are not their now? You still haven’t given me anything to go on , so how are we supposed to engage if we don’t know what you are struggling with...if you are just saying is everyone else is struggling, I’m sure most are, that is the game to anyone taking it seriously

And in regards to you’re opening post, if you are putting in 8 hours a day or putting in any serious amount of work, what is the problem in terms of what is going wrong, if nothing is wrong why post the game is bent? The game has always been bent

I used to be able to 14 hours in the summer months, that is what is needed in order to know everything...if you don’t work hard you won’t find the opportunities, it goes hand in hand unless you have got inside information
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 19:10
Onlooker it does become a worthwhile betting opportunity if you're looking to play the place market and more specifically place lay other horses in that market. I'm trying to avoid discussion about betting angles, systems, making profit etc so wanted to be vague.

It's more about the patchy profile of the horses and their form when they turn up to win. It's starting to feel like Irish racing to me. Not just going on this month, had this opinion for a while now.

@punts Hopefully it changes, can't get much worse
By:
punts
When: 12 Apr 21 19:15
Tarooq: In "bent" Ireland I've backed winners mostly because Mullins/APOB are in good form.

Over here it is tricky right now and for the reasons onlooker has mentioned...
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 19:19
@punts so you don't need to look at form much in Ireland? Just go with the hot trainer?
By:
punts
When: 12 Apr 21 19:34
No I look at form/stats not just whether a trainer is hot or cold but it helps when a big stable is in good order and it's a coincidence that Mullins and AOB seem to be doing well over there right now.

If it wasn't for them I'd probably not have a bet on the turf until May for the reasons onlooker points out.
By:
punts
When: 12 Apr 21 19:36
turf or jumps* I meant to say

Jumps season is also winding down so all these variables have to be taken into account!
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 19:47
Thanks for the post Harry. I've tried to avoid mentioning and discussing what I do as invariably it turns into a discussion about systems, angles and willx waving. Just wanted to gage opinion if people thought things had changed if following form angles to the point it's not worth following day to day British racing anymore.
By:
punts
When: 12 Apr 21 19:47
My results on the all weather are good over the last week or two. All weather is now pretty much all year long, though for me too many class 6 handicaps.

You should consider restricting yourself to all weather for now, Tarooq

Very few trainers start the season well. Most of the horses need a run.
By:
Tarooq
When: 12 Apr 21 20:17
I've restricted myself to following a few trainers, jockeys and betting angles for a while now punts. Don't think I could follow just the AW though. It's dross.
By:
cloone river
When: 12 Apr 21 22:15
Give me Irish jump racing any day of the week.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 13 Apr 21 05:45
I love form study and don't find it hard at all. The only thing that's changed for me is Ante-Post is more profitable than before Covid.
That's because I have much more time to study form.
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