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08 Apr 21 17:25
Date Joined: 16 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 4,574 | Blogger: punts's blog
Keen on this ones chances tomorrow.

Has won the race before, proven Grade 1 performer & Nicholls yard in good form.

Was pulled out of Chelt due to blood found in his nose..

Nicholls didn't want to take the chance so they come here..

PF Nicholls says:

"He won this race two years ago and it helps that last year's winner Min is absent this time. Politologue has been successful over this trip several times, he likes going left handed and looks a big player back at Aintree. His record when running after a break of at least 76 days is outstanding."

Taken some 3/1. May go back in tomorrow.. depends.

Hopefully will run well! (NAP).

Pause Switch to Standard View Politologue - The Melling Chase
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Report impossible123 April 8, 2021 7:28 PM BST
Could he do a Clan Des Obeaux? He's running against some just off novice status. At least he's a fresh horse unlike some here.
Report punts April 8, 2021 7:35 PM BST
impossible: I napped Clan today. The yard is in good nick it's fair to say. 

Fakir is a danger. JPOB has had a few winners on the flat recently. This is probably stopping me going for a bigger bet but may have at least a nifty on,

GL if playing.
Report impossible123 April 8, 2021 8:08 PM BST
His price is good compared to his previous; opponents are 2nd raters too. He bled in the same race when 2nd to Min in 2019, but won his next race; Fakir was scratched from Fairyhouse to run here.
Report undertaker April 9, 2021 8:22 AM BST
I have been waiting for Politologue to step back up to today's distance as his pedigree makes me think he will be an even better horse for it. In no way could most Poliglotes be described as stayers, but by the same token they aren't at their best over the minimum trip either, and 2m4f to 2m6f seems to be their optimum trip on today's ground. Looking at the dam's side of the pedigree, the damsire Turgeon also seems to produce horses who perform best at around 2m4f, plus the dam herself ran mostly over 2m4f - 2m6f. As previously pointed out, the current form of the Nicholls doesn't yard doesn't put me off either.

Of the others, Dashel Drasher has become one of my favourite horses this season following his exploits around Ascot, but those performances were over a furlong further and on much softer ground, and being by Passing Glance I think he would probably want 3 miles to be seen at his very best on today's ground. He will certainly go up even more in my estimation if he is good enough to win today, but if he does win he won't be making me any money. Master Tommytucker will surely belt at least one fence on the way round, and that does for a horse's chances on this track. Fakir D'oudairies can't possibly win as I read on here the other day that his trainer is a clown, and the jockey will probably fall off Notebook, so the each way/forecast bet for me is Nuts Well. Off the course for almost 6 months since winning over C&D, he has run well after a break previously and his sire Dylan Thomas is vastly underrated imo. Ok, he needs to improve again to win this, but the win and place odds on here seem very fair to me and I think he is worth a punt.

Good luck everyone.
Report punts April 9, 2021 8:43 AM BST
Many thanks undertaker!

FWIW: undertaker is a profitable punter and fancies this too so that's a positive Happy
Report punts April 9, 2021 8:48 AM BST
Fakir has been backed into 5/2 which is a concern as I rate it as a danger...
Report smirnoff2therescue April 9, 2021 9:04 AM BST
The "freshness" angle doesnt seem to apply for this race if you follow stats as all of the previous 19 winners had run at that years Cheltenham festival ShockedShockedShocked

If that trend continues then there are only 3 candidates for top honours this year in Fakhir, Notebook or Duc Des GenievresConfusedConfusedCrazyCrazy
Report Storm Alert April 9, 2021 9:06 AM BST
I just prefer Dashel Drasher today. 6/1 decent price about a front runner, I think track will suit well and could just get Poli on the stretch. At the prices will cover stakes on Poli just in case.
Report punts April 9, 2021 9:23 AM BST
Update: just gone in again @ 4.2 . 200 notes if it wins. That's enough for me...

And yes, I do back every horse I put up win or lose.. GL all.
Report Storm Alert April 9, 2021 9:37 AM BST
With the boost Poli is 100/30 on the Betfair Sports book (and Dashel a tasty 13/2).
Report punts April 9, 2021 9:41 AM BST
10/3 is pretty good Storm. I managed an average of 4.15 on the exchange.

I thought he would be pushed out due to Fakir being backed but has been strong in the market this morning.

Good omen, perhaps..
Report Platini April 9, 2021 9:57 AM BST
Master Tommytucker at 9/1 looks hugely overpriced. That'll do me.
Report undertaker April 9, 2021 10:28 AM BST
Good grief punts, do people seriously think you spend time posting your selections on here, together with reasons, and then not bother to back them?
Report impossible123 April 9, 2021 10:32 AM BST
^^Oh yes. There're some posters here with little or zilch to do monitoring or trolling others about their bets or opinions. I known it's sad but it does happen.
Report IDKW April 9, 2021 10:44 AM BST
Agree with Platini....Master Tommytucker at 9's is the bet.
Report chavman April 9, 2021 10:56 AM BST
MT too prone to error when let off a tight rein.

politologue for me
Report Anyska April 9, 2021 11:09 AM BST
it will suit politologue here over the distance. Playing him a big cagey and going for him to beat fakir in a match bet, the run is too soon for fakir chasing home allaho giving how many pulled up in that race. chancing Nuts well e/w, beating clondaw castle last time out is decent form.
Report workrider April 9, 2021 11:19 AM BST
Going to have a little on Notebook , stepping up in trip will suit and the stiff fences should be no problem , oh and the jockey ain't to bad either, I know its after timing but after all the talk about Rachel yesterday out of spite I stuck a little £10 on her in the bumper @ 25/1 on here so a nice little ending to the day..
Report workrider April 9, 2021 11:20 AM BST
Sorry meant to add , thanks Undertaker for your write up I always enjoy reading them...
Report Cash Is King April 9, 2021 11:34 AM BST
There looks to be plenty of pace in this race. Hope Politologue wins but which Harry Cobden will turn up to ride him? In addition to jockey concerns I hope there’s enough juice in the ground for him and the bleeding issue has been sorted. A price of 3/1 seems about right.
Report Poppydog. April 9, 2021 11:41 AM BST
Blood on the nose at Cheltenham also blood on the nose in the last running of this (long way back in 2nd)

Only worry though, because if he is anywhere near his best, should make mincemeat of these.

Nap of the Day.
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 9, 2021 12:46 PM BST
I love him as nearly as much as Al Ferof, Politologue has been always underrated and not talked about as much as he should had been.

He is a joy to watch and unless the Irish horse has new carrots then he should win.
Report SlippyBlue April 9, 2021 1:12 PM BST
I've backed it to win,I'm hopeful he'll run a very solid race and be good enough to collect.
Report differentdrum April 9, 2021 1:16 PM BST
Gone with Master Tommytucker. He has looked safer without Cobden.
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! April 9, 2021 2:44 PM BST
nr d dashel

Report glentoby April 9, 2021 3:02 PM BST
Hope I have not jinxed Politologue,had to back him as Dashiel n/r which makes things a lot easier for him to lead,fingers crossed as bad memories of One Man here.Good luck all.
Report Storm Alert April 9, 2021 3:11 PM BST
Dashel a nr easier for me to double up on Poli. Can't have Tommytucker or Fakir.
Report impossible123 April 9, 2021 3:16 PM BST
Why does The Exchange void a reverse forecast bet on this race when the non-runner is no a selection? Stake returned and a new market formed.
Report Anyska April 9, 2021 3:17 PM BST
feel notebook is crying out for a longer trip. jumped good at cheltenham and just got outpaced, 9/2 looks huge
Report glentoby April 9, 2021 3:19 PM BST
MT has a big race in him so no surprise to see him push Politologue in the closing stages barring a howling mistake,had a fcast and put in Nuts Well and Notebook for a tricast.
Report dibdob April 9, 2021 3:22 PM BST
The clown trainer has this on the fav
Report Poppydog. April 9, 2021 3:25 PM BST
I reckon this may be one of those races where Cheltenham has taken it's toll

Favs Fakir and Notebook may be worth (place) lays
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 9, 2021 3:28 PM BST
master tommy tucker in mistake shocker
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 9, 2021 3:32 PM BST
Age has caught up with the grey Plain
Report dibdob April 9, 2021 3:32 PM BST
Someone knew.....

Report Poppydog. April 9, 2021 3:32 PM BST
Maybe bled again?
Similar to two years ago
Report Anyska April 9, 2021 3:33 PM BST
serious yoke fakir, gold cup possibility
Report Platini April 9, 2021 3:34 PM BST
How STD stayed on I'll never know.Crazy

MTT is an enigma, he'll win a big race one day, prob the day I don't back him.
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 9, 2021 3:36 PM BST
I backed fakir in his 3mile effort. Plain
Report 1st time poster April 9, 2021 3:41 PM BST
pumpkins had a shocker
all this fresh,headgear, stuff basically like the rest of us till theyve ran he hasnt a scooby foooking do
Report 1st time poster April 9, 2021 3:41 PM BST
as opposed to the bloke with 200 grand on fav LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Storm Alert April 9, 2021 3:41 PM BST
Not good by Cobden there, he drifted out before the 3rd last fence leaving the gap. Should have been trying to win the race not take out Nuts Well, not that it made any difference to the winner.
Report FOYLESWAR April 9, 2021 3:43 PM BST
youd think jp would know better than to put £200k on a horse trained by a clown !
Report punts April 9, 2021 6:00 PM BST
Very disappointing good job I kept it sensible. Fair play to Fakir and JPOB!

1st time: Mixed meeting for Nicholls....
Report undertaker April 10, 2021 4:58 AM BST
Punts - like me you did your dough on Politologue but fair play to you for regularly giving your opinions before the race is run.

Foyles - Laugh  Seriously though, you have to give JPOB credit where it is due as he is very good at social distancing. Those enormous shoes he wears stop anyone coming within 2 metres, and if anyone does manage to do so he just squirts water in their face with the plastic flower on his lapel. Admittedly, he does rather let himself down after racing by cramming 37 people into his tiny car on the way home, but nobody's perfect.

Workrider - Thanks for that. I am aware that when it comes to pedigrees you know your onions, so that is quite a compliment. I can now almost forgive you for your shameless aftertiming on this thread, and for starting a rival 3.25 thread on Thursday which stole my thunder and caused me to throw my toys out of the cot yesterday.

Impossible - Regarding forecasts on BF, yes, it's very frustrating when that happens, and I have trained myself to be very aware about non-runners when I have done a forecast on here, so I don't ever miss the opportunity to lose some money. I think it must be something to do with the fact that Betfair can't apply a fair Rule 4 deduction to different forecast combinations when one comes out, so they have to void all bets and start again. Thinking about it, forecasts involving horses at the top of the market are priced bigger than the multiple of their odds (after deducting one point from one of the selections, e.g.2/1 to beat 4/1 = 2x5, then divide by 2 for a RFC) and forecasts involving outsiders are shorter than that, so maybe the standard "deduct 25% if a 3/1 shot comes out" rule doesn't work? Betfair are doing themselves out of commission by cancelling bets, so there must be a good reason for it. I still like the forecast markets on here though. The price you can get often makes the Exacta dividend look embarrassing, but that's what happens when they cream c.30% off the top I guess. It's a shame you can only do them in races up to 10 runners actually.

Moving on to yesterday's race, Politologue was very disappointing, and I am told he is now in the naughty stable next to Cyrname, having to deal with the fact that he won't be getting any polo mints for the foreseeable future. My mole from horsey heaven has also been on to tell me that his father is very disappointed in him, but I know I've been there many times and hopefully he can bounce back. Nuts Well ran an excellent race, despite...whatever it was the jockey thought he was trying to do, but even with a competent ride I don't think he would have got near the winner, who was awesome. Whilst I am on the subject, I am absolutely incandescent with rage that nobody has thanked me for tipping Ahoy Senor, which I obviously did when I said Dylan Thomas was a vastly underrated sire. You are a tough crowd on here, you really are.
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 6:46 AM BST
they are a tough crowd undertaker but think id much rather have a few well dones  or silent appreciations here and there than have the crowd that infests the glentoby thread chipping in with words of wisdom, anyway well done with chantry house yesterday. just before the start  of the handicap over the nat fences yesterday the missus and i were watching itv4 racing and they ar calling out the names for the race , she says can you put a couple of pound on livelovelaugh (she likes the name ) ok i says then as they go further down .oh i like that one too "pink eyed pedro "  put a pound each way on both of them ,ffs. ........ its good to have someone with a bit of breeding knowledge of the jumps , the poster muse also chips in now and then as he is a bit savvy on that front .
Report undertaker April 10, 2021 7:17 AM BST
Thanks Foyles, obviously I didn't actually tip or back Ahoy Senor yesterday, and the comment above should be taken about as seriously as the JPOB clown stuff. I can't decide whether Chantry House was a lucky winner or not, but on what was a difficult day for me punting wise I grabbed it with both hands anyway. For a split second I thought he was going to be brought down after the 2nd last, which would have made for some interesting in-running action for those who get involved with that. The race you refer to yesterday was actually the only one I made any decent money on, it got me out of trouble and led to me finishing the day on a breakeven position. Anyone who is allergic to aftertiming should look away now (yes Workrider, I know I'm a raging hypocrite), but I backed 5 horses in the race, win bets on the winner and Precious Cargo and win & 4 places on the 3rd, 4th and Two For Gold. I also did a combo Exacta (20 bets) which paid a divi of nearly 400 and am embarrassed to admit that I found myself shouting obscenities at the telly because Snugsborough was "only" 4th and I didn't get the Trifecta up! Mind you, I think it would probably have paid about 8,000, which would have been a nice return on my 60 bet combo.
Report undertaker April 10, 2021 7:21 AM BST
Sorry, meant to say 2nd and 4th. Exactas don't pay out on the 1st and 3rd.
Report DIFERENT GRAVY 12 April 10, 2021 7:35 AM BST
Re: Aftertiming

It's 3 strikes and you're out!

This kind of aftertiming is allowed though, I only had 1 bet at Aintree, Itchy Feet each way. I knew my fate as soon as Dashel Drasher was withdrawn!
Report undertaker April 10, 2021 7:50 AM BST
Does it count as a strike if you say you broke even on the day though? Just want to get the ground rules clear in my mind.
Report DIFERENT GRAVY 12 April 10, 2021 8:25 AM BST
Luckily for you it doesn't count!
Report workrider April 10, 2021 10:04 AM BST
A pleasing thread , more of same please Gents...
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 10:08 AM BST
undertaker i have bumped a few threads from about 2 weeks ago have a look ,just cant get my head around why you think they are a tough crowd on here !
Report punts April 10, 2021 10:11 AM BST
lol workrider.. no can can beat the Irish magic carrots.. our Champion trainer is embarrassing to be fair...
Report punts April 10, 2021 10:12 AM BST
no one*
Report workrider April 10, 2021 10:22 AM BST
Punts I am been serious , no name calling just peoples opinions re horse racing. You couldn't ask for better , a few sharp words are one thing but when a thread dives into name calling etc well that's another story. I let myself down in my battle with the bully Robo , but I am determined not to allow him ruin this forum like he did the Irish one . I love a little blast of hot air now and again and boy do you lot give it to me on here,  Onlooker, Chaveman, Ist time, 11k ,Impossible, etc, are well able to put me back in my box when its needed, but I love the cross fire banter long may it continue..Have a good punting day today .
Report punts April 10, 2021 10:32 AM BST
workrider: Yeah I know what you mean. Mullins seems to get the job done most of them whereas our Champion trainer is patchy at best . He also seems to have quite a few odds on shots beaten, again in Ireland Mullins ones hardly get beat.

The Irish domination is remarkable...
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 10:41 AM BST
lads as we know no one knows everything about everything in racing  and i have limited knowledge of both codes and others will know more and that is what the forum should be about ,banter is fine , these threads will attract others who may be encouraged to chip in with usefull info , i will always put one up if i feel its got a chance and i am willing to listen and learn . you will always get a few who want to disrupt but if the thread is about racing they will move on and find a thread where they can argue  and abuse till their hearts are content .
Report workrider April 10, 2021 10:49 AM BST
Punts I backed one of Willies at Wexford yesterday , and after a circuit I knew my fate , I think he is a Master trainer but sometimes he's hard to get right , I have noticed he'll get a big race winner for a top owner when least expected, it's knowing which big owner he wants to win on the day that's the problem..Grin
Report punts April 10, 2021 10:59 AM BST
Workrider: His website is great but yes no certs, although when the big occasion comes Mullins rarely gets it wrong..

He is easily the best around.

As for JPOB  he is doing a lot better now than before when he was cold. I suspected Fakir might run a big race but did not expect him to win like that!
Report workrider April 10, 2021 11:06 AM BST
Punts the money was down , a massive bet just before the off no need to guess who's it was , he doesn't leave it behind very often . As for Robo saying Joseph is a clown when the lad has both trained and ridden and won the Worlds top races shows what a clown HE is..Willie can have several G1 races every morning if you look at his string.
Report undertaker April 10, 2021 11:12 AM BST
That was a purple patch for you there Foyles.
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 11:16 AM BST
yes my luck was in then ,tbh not done too badly since .
Report superdub April 10, 2021 12:47 PM BST
For what it is worth now Nicholls team reported Politologue Bled post race
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