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undertaker
08 Apr 21 07:59
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Date Joined: 21 Nov 02
| Topic/replies: 252 | Blogger: undertaker's blog
There are plenty of horses in this race stepping up to 2m4f for the first time. Of these, I think there are 2 outsiders whose pedigree suggests it will bring about an improved performance. These are Millers Bank and Not So Sleepy.

Millers Bank is by Passing Glance out of It Doesn't Matter (Karinga Bay). Passing Glance is the sire of plenty of 2m4f - 3m2f winners, the most notable probably being Dashel Drasher, who has treated us to some superb performances around Ascot this season. It Doesn't Matter is related to several 2m - 2m4f jumpers, and whilst none of them have set the world alight, the two sides of the pedigree, when put together, suggest that Millers Bank's optimum trip may well be 2m4f. In terms of form, Millers Bank has been quite progressive this season, winning his last 2 hurdles at 2m and 2m 1/2f, and whilst he would obviously be getting a lot of weight from the others if this were a handicap, his price reflects that, and if he can improve as expected for the step up in trip I think he might finish in the first 3 or 4.

Not So Sleepy is my more confident selection of the 2. He is by Beat Hollow out of Papillon De Bronze (Marju). Beat Hollow, as most will know, is the sire of Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and therefore a strong stamina influence. The dam's side of the pedigree, however, is more about speed, as Papillon De Bronze is related to lots of 2m hurdlers and milers on the flat. So again, on pedigree, I feel that 2m 4f might well be Not So Sleepy's optimum trip over jumps. On the form side of things, the case for stepping Not So Sleepy up in trip is fairly obvious, as he has been 4th in the last 2 runnings of the Cesarewitch. He was predicatably outclassed in the Champion Hurdle but 5th place was creditable enough, and he was running on a bit at the end. Therefore, if the step up in trip does bring out a bit of improvement he could be bang in the mix for today's race.

Anyway, those are my thoughts, post your selections below.

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Replies: 19
By:
Trusty
When: 08 Apr 21 08:39
Can't land on a selection in this race, would have gone for Song For Someone but recent trainer form is dire (Last, 2nd Last, Last & P/U) so that ruled that one out. No bet race for me so good luck with yours and thanks for posting.
By:
Anyska
When: 08 Apr 21 08:44
Wide open this race, and more of who is the last off the list. McFabulous and Brewingupastorm look to be 2 aimed at this race, love a flat track and know they can get the trip. Siding with brewingupastorm who beat mcfabulous last time as and a few points bigger. And a dual forecast, if one wins, the other shouldn't be far behind
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 08 Apr 21 14:14
Buveur d air
Shocked
By:
undertaker
When: 09 Apr 21 04:41
Firstly, thank you to Trusty, Anyska and ImSoLuckyLucky for posting your thoughts. The rest of this diatribe isn't aimed at you.

People sometimes comment that I don't post much on this forum, and I think this thread demonstrates why quite adequately. I put up 2 horses with fairly detailed reasoning as to why I am backing them, one of them finishes 3rd at an SP of 80/1 (and it was clearly an ew selection as I said "...if he can improve as expected for the step up in trip I think he might finish in the first 3 or 4") and I get...nothing. 246 people have viewed this thread and not one person could be bothered to post "wd on Millers Bank" or something similar.

Meanwhile, a thread entitled "Glentoby ousted (sic) as a fibber" has had 206 new posts since I was last here. No wonder this forum is dying on its ar$e.

I have spent the last 12 months not being able to go racing, so instead I used that time researching pedigrees, trying to make myself a more successful gambler, and I think it has paid off. I have never done this before, but apparently the only way some take you seriously on here is if you post your 3 month P&L, so here goes...


Betting Profit & Loss
09-Apr-2021 05:33
Period:    
Last 3 Months

(relates to event settlement date)
   
2021-01-09 05:33

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)     to    
2021-04-09 05:33

(yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)   
Download to Spreadsheet  ?
Football: -£149.80 |
Horse Racing: £8,175.24
Total P&L: £8,025.44


(My last bet on football was 16th January, so that will drop off soon)

Naively, I thought it would be nice to share some of my new-found knowledge and enhanced interest for the sport we all know and love with the people of this forum, but perhaps predictably, I have been wasting my time, haven't I?

I realise that this post makes me a whiny little b!tch, but feel free to point it out anyway, even that is better than being completely ignored.

OK, I'm done now, you can all go back to calling each other ****s or whatever.
By:
punts
When: 09 Apr 21 04:58
Good morning undertaker.,,

Keep plugging away and you will get some interest for sure, especially with that P/L..

This race was tricky and many people here probably skipped it or held no interest. 

Don't let it bother you
By:
driver2
When: 09 Apr 21 06:00
You're right undertaker. Glad you're making some money out of the game anyway, as punts says, that's more important than worrying about the resident low life. I read your thread, but I didn't come back yesterday as I was p1ssed off at Rachel jumping off of the fav, which I backed, besides which it was virtually midnight here in Thailand by the time racing finished.
By:
undertaker
When: 09 Apr 21 06:07
OK guys, thanks for the replies. I have re-read my post from this morning and concluded that maybe I shouldn't post on here until I've had at least 3 cups of coffee. I have now fulfilled this criterion and calmed down a bit Grin
By:
11kv
When: 09 Apr 21 06:14
Good write up undertaker and a good winner for you.There will have been a lot of people who will have benefited from the thread,they just don't post.Keep em coming.
By:
DIFERENT GRAVY 12
When: 09 Apr 21 06:52
Well done, I didn't read the thread yesterday because I very rarely bet over the jumps although I enjoy watching it.
I started a thread 3-4 years ago on low grade A/W racing, giving only big priced selections. The first day I gave a 22-1 winner and a 9-1 second from 4 selections, day 2 an 11-1 winner and 3 unplaced. The only comments I got were 3 well done and a couple saying the unplaced ones were ****. Needless to say I stopped posting on the thread. I didn't go into any detail as these were system bets, 3-4 years later it still works just as well but I have difficulty in getting as many bets on as I have been restricted everywhere and there is very little liquidity on here during the morning.
By:
Cash Is King
When: 09 Apr 21 06:55
Undertaker - don’t feel too disheartened. There are three reasons why you post was “neglected”:

1) 99% of what gets posted isn’t worth reading. It’s hard sometimes to sort the wheat from the chaff and decent posts like yours will get overlooked more often than not.

2) Not many posters will be tackling the race from a breeding perspective so few if any will feel they have anything which they can usefully add.

3) Most will be looking to find the winner of the race and won’t be looking at it from the point of view of seeking out big priced outsiders that are unlikely to win but could sneak a place.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 Apr 21 07:01
keep posting op. and well done with millers tale ,good write up  as you can see only a few post up selections on here, punts being one ,i post selections  now and then on here but mainly on the ante post forum,all input is helpfull so keep posting, you will know the threads to avoid , sorry only seen this thread this morning or i would have commented earlier ,any fancies today ? i like sporting john each way in  the novice chase at aintree today if i have time i may put up a thread , any info or input will be usefull good luck.
By:
Cash Is King
When: 09 Apr 21 07:03
The only thing I would add is you should continue to post your thoughts because eventuality you’ll reach a receptive audience.

Analysis of breeding is fine but it has to be coupled with knowledge of race conditions. Not So Sleepy was one of the first horses that I struck out because front runners rarely win on the Aintree hurdles track. For reasons that I’ve never understood, front runners fare much better on the chase track (and prominent racers often do well over the National fences). Perhaps it’s something to do with needing to jump more obstacles and the advantage of being able to get into a good jumping rhythm.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 09 Apr 21 07:05
20 years on here,you must have some idea how the forum works.
By:
undertaker
When: 09 Apr 21 08:12
Glasgow - you are right, and of course I do, but my post first thing this morning was an attempt to improve matters, and judging by the helpful replies I've received so far it worked.

Cash Is King - thanks for the useful feedback, I know that my approach is a tad one-dimensional at times. Maybe when we go into Lockdown 4 it's something I can spend some time on. I was aware that prominent racers did very well over the National fences, particularly at the shorter distances, but I must confess it wasn't something that really entered my calculations over hurdles.

Foyleswar - personally I only back Getaways on Heavy, so Sporting John is not for me today, but I wish you all the best with your bet. I have backed Chantry House as the progeny of **** do well under today's conditions, but his chance is obvious for all to see. At a bigger price, I think the win/place odds on here for Empire Steel are very fair. He will need to improve significantly to take this, but has been running well on Soft and Heavy recently, and being by Aizavoski out of a Turgeon mare I think he will appreciate running on today's drier ground for the first time under rules.
By:
undertaker
When: 09 Apr 21 08:15
Lol, why can't you say y e a t s? Do Betfair hate poetry or is it a bookie/rude insult I've never heard of?
By:
Cash Is King
When: 09 Apr 21 08:42
Undertaker - prominent racers do well on both Mildmay and National steeplechase courses. 3 of the 4 winners yesterday were prominent throughout. The same rarely applies over hurdles and is always worth noting when it does.

The breeding angle is fascinating and your insights are useful. Looks as if you’ve studied the Grade 1 Mildmay chase. Suggest you post what you’ve written above on a new thread because it’s likely to get lost to the wider community on this thread.
By:
undertaker
When: 09 Apr 21 09:22
Interesting stuff Cash Is King. As luck would have it, the two I posted above plus the two I posted on Punts' Melling Chase thread all seem to like running prominently, so that's good. It's not something I ever factored in to be honest, and I'm sure it must have cost me plenty over the years. I'll certainly bear it in mind when looking at future chases at Aintree. As for starting a new thread, I think the forum's probably heard enough from me for one day!
By:
Cash Is King
When: 09 Apr 21 10:24
Undertaker - good luck with your selections and thanks for the write ups. (They’re appreciated even if they don’t get acknowledged.)
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 Apr 21 12:40
tending to agree with undertaker regarding empire steel ,unfashionable trainer but that last bit of form looks very good now may have been flattered but money for it and i have had a pop each way . 2 bullets at decent prices will do for me.
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