trainer comments from social media thread

Spirit is a lay according to my system, I'll pass.

If he steams I'll lay SP.

Win or lose Punts, this is one of the more interesting threads on the forum. Well done.

GL Gaze

cheers Brian. It's a very unique and different approach to finding those elusive winners

Got many ideas for the thread and I'm always looking to add trainers to the roster.

I am still learning/refining. It never stops!

Looks like they're backing the Hannon runner.  Must admit that one is a worry the jockey is quite good

Shame I can't really go E/W at these prices..

did it win?

you certainly give us a run for our money, punts

ALways next time

2nd

Your hoss cost me a lovely forecast there punts

nearly ran the winner down, a couple more strides but.. close second

win some, lose some. jockey on the winner did us a favour on Manjam and now ...

Keep 'em comin', sir

Feelin' like there is value in your system

I was ew so no harm done.....did feel as the race unfolded that the jockey had overplayed his hand and should have been closer before starting his run.

What I like about is it only generates 1-2 selections a day if lucky. I imagine during the turf season it will be busier.

Also I may expand internationally. de Kock has one entered this week in Dubai and I think he might write about it so will be interesting to see what he says.

it's bit mad and unique but has logic behind it

saddo: That was a good shout and also well done Roger getting the place. More to come from that one so keep an eye out.


Teal in great form. We're lucky to have some stables on fire for the sake of this approach

I saw Teal's complaint about the mark for Dark Esteem, I noted it as a minimum 70 hoss so I don't think 68 was harsh.

He will find a race for it i'm sure. Maybe not at 8.5f

punts
Date Joined: 16 Feb 06
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18 Jan 21 03:46Joined: 16 Feb 06 | Topic/replies: 2,417 | Blogger: punts's blog
well done stewarty but it sucks you have to revert to football for some value.  if stuck for ideas check my thread we're starting to post lots of winners


Thanks for the kind offer punts. I prefer to use my own judgment but as one of the forum good guys I wish you every success with this thread. I will look in every day and if I fancy one I will check to see if you have put it up on here.

No worries stewarty. Still early days here so keep an eye out :)

A quiet few days but there maybe a Meydan selection tomorrow as i've come across some comments from Charlie Appleby waiting for markets etc. to assess

Added Dark Esteen to tracker: think Teal will find a race for it in the coming weeks

Thanks Punts...always interesting

Might be a bit late to be tracking Dark Esteem punts, wont be that price again for a while.

Depends saddo. I don't like backing too short in handicaps although his Swiss spirit horse went in at evens or something. Either way worth keeping tabs on...

-0.1 points

16:15 Meydan: Zakouski

Charlie Appleby:

“Zakouski comes into this race off the back of a pleasing win in a Newmarket Listed race at the end of October. He won both his starts at Meydan last season and returns a fit and well horse. We are confident that he can be a leading player."

My view:

Zakouski is 2/2 at Meydan and Charlie Appleby in particularly good form so think this is good value against Military March.

1pt win, Zakouski (Currently 11/4 - I'm waiting till later).

-1.1pts

Zakouski ran well yesterday finishing 2nd.. another 2nd!

One for today:

****
Mark Usher

We take Waqaas to @LingfieldPark this pm;  & Misu Pete to @ChelmsfordCRC this even. Waqaas has an excellent chance at the weights this pm, the more so if you allow @_izzfrancis claim;  well drawn the constraint is the 8th furlong;  if he copes with it should be highly competitive
***

My view:

Waqaas was touched off last time and is well handicapped. I think this is worth an E/W. As Mark says the unknown is the trip (8f) so I am not highly confident but we'll see.

Waqaas, 0.5 pts E/W

Had a look at Showcasing's (Waqaas) sire stats on Lingfield aw 8 furlongs.....not encouraging,win 1/30 (3.3%)(a/e 0.32) place 30%.

Yes, hence E/W.  He has never tried it before so might take to it... or he might not

Stats can be broken, 30 isn't a huge sample

Agree 30 low sample....over 8F on all aw courses  stat is 12/192 (6.2%) place 29.2%

Good luck...as you rightly point out stats are there to be broken.

posy: Should get a juicer price with the trip factored in.  It's his 1st try so I think worth a go.

I would swerve if he was 0/5 at trip etc.

Backed Waqaas @ 16/1 and 3/1 the place.

Seems juicy. May get bigger I dont know.  If he doesn't see out the trip then oh well

Hi Punts - Waqaas appears to be (currently) friendless in the market (5/1 out to 11/1 with the books and rapidly approaching 16's on here ) so perhaps today is not the day.
But I think he is handicapped to win and I thought a mile was well worth a try. I was actually thinking/hoping they should try a mile again (he lost a shoe the only other time he tried it at Kempton). My concern is that he looks like a bit of a "dodgepot" or "rogue". He has quite a strong tendency to hang (usually right - but sometimes he goes left as well! ), so although she takes off a valuable 7lbs again today, I'm not sure he is the ideal ride for a claiming jockey? I like backing claimers when they are riding a straightforward "point and shoot" type horse - but given his running style - Waqaas is likely to require a certain amount of steering! I also thought (given the roguish tendencies/hanging that they might have tried some headgear (although Cheekpieces and a tongue-tie made little difference when he was with Jamie Osborne).

Usual conundrum for me - seems worth a speculative punt today at a big price - but on the other hand I would be worried if he goes off a big price (given the ownership!). GL.

Management: I know you couldn't resist a rogue like Waqaas! 

Usher seems bullish so worth a risk in my view.  Not much else on today.

Dont worry about the price. Ask Bayston Hill layers about that one

I do like a rogue Punts! -

I mostly like to lay them though! - But I am also a great believer in the cliched saying about "if you always do what you've always done, you will always get what you've always got" (or something along those lines!). By definition, most rogue horses are masking their true ability or not "putting it all in" (be it by hanging, refusing to go past, stopping when in front, etc, etc) and I'm a firm believer that doing something different with them is the key to unlocking them (often at a nice price!). Just not 100% that the extra furlong (on it's own) is the key to "unlocking" Waqaas.

We'll see, an interesting race. He runs like a mile should suit - but the cynic in me has just got a niggling doubt that the plan is to drop a few lbs at the wrong trip (today) and then sluice up off a lower mark, under a forceful jockey back at 7f on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton with some headgear!

Perhaps Management. I dont think Mark would put us away. Not my experience. Waqaas is getting closer and closer and is already well handicapped.  If not today then surely soon..

"if you always do what you've always done, you will always get what you've always got"

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein



Effectively both sayings mean the same thing & and in general terms very true.

Agree Hayden - horses not much different to people imo (plenty of rogues and dodgepots!) - but it is possible to iron out the creases in some cases if you go about things differently or make some changes.

I'd like to think that training a rogue/dodgepot horse is like trying to rehabilitate a criminal - although obviously Gelding is not an option available to the probation officer!

At the price I thought it was worth a go, think the extra furlong might suit, don't like the fav too much, a couple of the other shorter ones have it to prove(headley and six) chica might get a good poition early but was from the fav race last time, think they finished a bit bunched up, Al verde came from miles back last time

Anyway I'm in

Poor run that .. not sure what happened on the first bend

I think her foot came out of the stirrup? - lost all chance anyway. Shame, we don't even get to see how he finishes over a mile.

Yes a complete write off Management. Still probably worth following (just not off a cliff )

Still think 7f on Tapeta (at Wolver), strong jockey, headgear (Nap).

When I say (Nap) - what I actually mean is speculative shrapnel - probably each-way!

It's in my tracker anyway Punts - but do stick it up again next time out as a reminder please.

think she lost her left iron coming out the stalls, a mess up to the bend, pretty much a mess the whole race I suppose, came home hands/heels, we're none the wiser, so it goes

ok what TM said!!!
sorry didn't see that post, don't think it had loaded when I started typing, my excuse anyway

Orice will be just as juicy as next time so keep an eye on it

Price*

Just looking at tomorrow.. Nicholls & Mullins have a lot of runners out. I will have to read his blog later.

Might be risking quite a few bets! 

Will be very interesting...

Just finished research.

There will be 7 selections tomorrow after a quiet week.

Going be interesting to say the least.

Could go either way...

Nicholls / Olly Murphy in good form and should be worth following today.

I have gone over their comments (positive ones) and have looked at the pedigrees of all the runners and filtered accordingly.

I'm not backing blind as I have removed a few where there have been negatives. Doesn't mean they can't win though!

Hopefully I'm on the right ones ...

Ascot:

13:15 - Eglantine Du Seuil

'She ran a cracker on her latest start for us six weeks ago in a competitive mares' handicap hurdle at Cheltenham where she came from off the pace to be second to The White Mouse. This is a new trip for her and though I can't be sure she stays three miles she was keeping on well at the finish at Cheltenham. I'm hopeful Eglantine Du Seuil can run tidily getting 6 lbs from two smart mares Magic of Light and Roksana.'

13:50 - Danny Kirwan

'He has had one or two issue that have interrupted his career but is now in as good a place as we've had him for a long time and it was great to see him show what he can do with a fluent victory over this trip at Ascot two months ago. Next time at Cheltenham he didn't stay three miles. Danny has been working with Politologue and will be much happier back at this trip on testing ground that he relishes. I am expecting a big run from him in a competitive race.'

14:25 - Favorito Buck's

'He ran his best race for a while last time in first time blinkers at Ascot where he led all the way until he was collared in the last 100 yards. The handicapper has played fair by leaving him on the same mark and should be in the mix again though he wouldn't want to the ground be too deep.'

15:35 - Politologue

'He is bouncing ahead of this Grade 1 Chase which comes at an ideal time ahead of his bid to retain his title in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Politologue has been in seriously good shape since his brilliant success in the Tingle Creek at Sandown and has thrived since we changed his training routine just over a year ago. I'd say he is as well as I've ever had him.'

Taunton

14:45 - Brewin'upastorm

'Brewin'upastorm reverts back to hurdles after some disappointing runs in good company over fences. Hopefully, he will gain a bit of confidence back over timber and the trip should suit. He's won around the track before and hopefully the ground won't be too testing. He's got to give a lot of weight away but he is the class horse in the field.'

15:25 - Follow That

'Follow That ran creditably in a couple of bumpers but hasn't fired over hurdles so far. He has his first run in a handicap and although he lacks the experience, he'll handle the soft ground well and should run respectable.'


6 points staked!

Not for the faint hearted!

I have the firepower (Bank) to  take the ups and downs. Since the thread is only 2 weeks old (-2.1 points) I suggest doing your own research or just backing those that are in the top 3 of the market.

Summary:

13:15 - Eglantine Du Seuil, 1pt win (6.0)
13:50 - Danny Kirwan, 1pt win (9.8)
14:25 - Favorito Buck's, 1pt win (13.5)
14:45 - Brewin'upastorm 1pt win (5.3)
15:25 - Follow That, 1pt win (8.6)
15:35 - Politologue, 1pt win (2.6)


Top 3 in market:

14:45 - Brewin'upastorm 1pt win (5.3)
15:25 - Follow That, 1pt win (8.6)
15:35 - Politologue, 1pt win (2.6)

A winner.. backed at 9/2 returned 3/1

What a terrible ride from David England on Follow that, gave up the outside to no one.

Nicholls had a real poor day.

Olly Murphy was spot on with his comments.

Poor day with £37800 in prize money! Second in a Group 1 and a decent win at Taunton. Some of the others did run badly I agree.

20:20 Kempton (Lucky last)

*****
Roger Teal

Roger Teal

One runner tonight
Cinzento runs at Kempton in the lucky last under Rossa
We are confident he will get the trip and goes there in great heart.

Fingers crossed he can continue our good run of form as the horses are running well.

***

My view:

Roger thinks he can get the trip and his horses are running well so lets give this a go...

1pt win, Cinzento  (20:20, Kempton)

just looking at the spreadsheet ... The 4 winners have all been < 4/1 in the market and despite backing a few outsiders only -1.8 points overall thus far.

Cinzento fits the criteria of a potential winner . He is currently Fav!

-2.8 pts

What a ride from Shane Kelly on the outsider.. wow

Punts
I will watch this thread as I have an interest in this type of sh!t 

One for tonight!

>>>>
Mark Usher

The Bay Warrior goes up in trip @WolvesRaces under @BennettC94 He is a specimen with a real pedigree & who will improve with time & distance & we hope he will run well tonite for his kind Owners.
>>>

Backed this last time at massive odds and he finished 4th.  Likely to be fitter tonight and is currently favourite so worth a go I reckon..

1pt win, The Bay Warrior

Hi punts,good luck with this.Just an amusing aside,a comment from Andrew Gemmell (owner of Paisley Park) who has been blind since birth.He has great sense of humour but I don't know if he was being ironic or winding up the Racing Post.

He said if he could not be at Cheltenham for the Stayers Hurdle "I will stay at home and watch it on TV",he is a top man with a self deprecating SOH,also likes a drink.

Got one for this afternoon:

Roger Teal reckons Marions Boy can run a nice race today although the high draw not ideal. Jockey is a plus.

1pt win, Marions Boy (14:55) @ 5/1.

Thanks Glen, still early days with this project.  GL today!

Hope Marion's can run a nice race. He has to be delivered late... very tricky.. Probert knows him well!

Be interesting to see if the Bay Warrior can get this trip

gl with this punts - hopefully it will get trip ok, looks like he's expecting a big run

Hollie

i cant understand why the jockeys are always giving Hollie a soft lead  in most of her races, makes you wonder if they have ever thought of trying  it themselves

-4.8 pts

Roger Teal thinks Wudashudacuda can grab a place (13:45, Lingfield).

Big price... 7/2 in the 3 TBP market.

Roger thinks Swiss Pride can remain competitive (18:30, Kempton).

Nice price of 11/2

Sorry, Swiss runs in the 14:20 Lingfield (even better)

So what's your bet here punts?

Wuda has halved in price .  My bet is for him to be in the 3 @ 4.2

there goes that one!

I was amazed at the money for Wuda. was 30/1 this morning

-6.8 pts

We have had so many 2nds its unbelievable!

Due a winner.

There will be one selection tomorrow I think and it could be a good one. More later.

19:40 Wolves Spirit Of Rowdown   

THE LUCKY LAST

Spirit Of Rowdown's course and distance record is impressive. Mark Usher has posted that he reckons he can be competitive and run well off his higher mark of 65 (up 3 lbs) and I agree. 

Spirit Of Rowdown 1pt E/W, 13/2 (Crybet are paying 4 places!)

Two nonners and still 9/2  4 places. I was going to take it on again with Woodview, but it's up 5lb and short enough this morning. I've laid it and will look to get back in later. GL

I've backed Bodroy in the same race,

5/1 saddo (4 places, Cry)

They have applied a 25p R4 to my earlier bet. I will prob back it on here later .

Oh and I got a free bet. How nice of them!

Good luck

And you dealer, sorry been out walking.

Punts - that 5/1 ew 4 places looks a good bet. Be a little surprised if that's not one in the field that'll be better handicapped but more surprised if he's not in the first 4.

Its long gone Brian unfortunately. Had to get up early..

Got the 4th place thank goodness!

"Lightly-raced maiden. Last of 5 in handicap (10/1) at Kempton (8f) 16 days ago on final run for Nick Littmoden. Needs a couple of these to falter."

very unpredictable but that's racing

Pleased that the jockey actually got the 4th place otherwise Cry would have had a right old result (not that they didn't anyway )

Big WD Tom, I noticed that had shortened earlier. Haven't watched it yet but I'm assuming Woodview went close, all my lays were taken.

Cheers mate, woodview traded pretty short turning in but flatend out tamely. Never looked like winning till the last half furlong but finished well under a pretty strong drive.

A broken clock et al

Well done Tom, nice price.

Cheers GC

A little late for now punts regarding the price with firms, but I've backed one at Kempton and just had a look at the trainer comment. Almost sure to be out the back so if the price  doesn't recover pre-race I'd back I/R.

Julia Fielden.
"Raha should have a good chance as I think the step up to one mile is what she needs. Seven furlongs is perfect for her on soft turf but on the quicker all-weather surface she probably needs a bit further as she takes a while to get into top gear. Hopefully she can get into full flight inside the final furlong and go close to winning." Kempton 7.20

Good luck saddo trainer is in good form

I am waiting to see what Teal says about Cinzento @ Wolves

Did Roger Teal have anything to say about Brute Force in the 4.55 Kempton yesterday,punts?

cheers,place at a nice price

Teal posted about Cinzento:

"He goes there in good order and can hopefully get in the mix. It's a competitive race but has a shout."

An E/W chance basically.

Mark Usher reckons Bayston Hill (20:30, Chelms) can be competitive off his 2 lb higher mark. His course record is unreal so worth an E/W go in my opinion.  Should be a decent price as well ...

Backed it each way;ran a very good race.
wd punts

Your welcome posy.  I backed in all markets shame he could not get the win as I would have copped the lot but oh well.

Usher has another today:

Arlecchino's Arc (14:30, Ling). Mark posts he should be competitive off a Mark of 54.   

I think I backed it last time and he was 4th over 13 furlongs staying on and never nearer so the step up to 16f will suit him I reckon.

Looks good for a small E/W at around 16/1...

Hi punts. You said give it a few weeks. 8 weeks have passed. What is the update?