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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 08:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,453 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
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Report happysandwich November 2, 2021 1:26 PM GMT
^
I see Lampus is keeping abreast of the situation.Grin
Report Brian November 2, 2021 1:53 PM GMT
Unfortunately Andrew, I didn't take your advice but well done on a good lay.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 5, 2021 12:46 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

One horse that interested me this afternoon is the novice chase debutant Do Your Job (Warwick 2.00). His last couple of races over hurdles reads well even though he finished runner-up on both occasions. Won an Irish P2P in good style that is a positive. Has front run in the past, if he does this afternoon (as i suspect) this speed track could suit and with a clear round could win. Odds of 9/4 are fair. 

Brian

Thank you. A pity about the drift, but it did come back to 5/2f closer to race time.
Report hologon November 5, 2021 2:11 PM GMT
Well done again  Andrew
Report ashleigh November 5, 2021 2:15 PM GMT
well done andrew, followed you in when i saw b powell riding it and not for c tizzard at fontwell.Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 5, 2021 2:26 PM GMT
Hologon/Ashleigh

Thanks

May have been fortunate but the fences are there to be jumped. I was surprised at the drift to 3/1 SP (backed him at 3.40 and layed the fav at 2.72 for cover).
Report happysandwich November 5, 2021 2:26 PM GMT
That was a very lucky winner for you Andrew when the leader fell & brought down the favourite Edwardstone.

Take all the luck you can get, it doubles the pleasure when they win.Grin
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 5, 2021 4:23 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

The 2 day Breeders Cup meeting at Del Mar starts today and although i'm more interested in the 12f turf tomorrow, i can suggest a fun bet on an outsider in the Juvenile Turf Sprint at 21.50 this evening (a sensible hour at least).

Go Bears Go hasn't run over 5f since a couple of runs at Ascot in May/June but has a good record over the minimum trip (1-2). A very speedy type and 7f in the Dewhurst LTO was always going to be a step too far although he certainly wasn't disgraced. He's run in some decent class races and only once finished out of the front 4, generally showing a lot of early pace but being run of out it close home.

The jockey John Velazquez is not a spring chicken (like most of us) but certainly knows his way around Del Mar and an inside draw in 3 with early pace could take him to the front quickly. Firm going shouldn't be an issue, in fact, he may benefit from it. Can he be ahead of the very speedy One Timer (drawn 9) at the halfway point and can he hold on ? At odds of circa 20 on here (already matched at this price) he will certainly give backers a run to find out.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Happysandwich

Do Your Job would have hosed up Laugh. Seriously, all punters need a little luck sometimes.
Report madhatters November 5, 2021 9:59 PM GMT
WD AIS
Report The Dragon November 5, 2021 11:02 PM GMT
nice call andrew a bit further and wd have won, jockey left it too much to do but a good second. shame i backed it to winShockedShockedShockedLaughLaughLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 6, 2021 5:55 AM GMT
Madhatters/TD

Thank you.

Go Bears Go ran well after a poor start that has probably cost him the race (also conceding the 3 lb filly allowance). Another 10 strides and he may have got up. I was on at 20 for the win and 5.9 3TBP so a profit, albeit only small stakes.

Unfortunately i was also on Modern Games who won the Juvenile, but all bets are void, at least on here. What a shambles. I watched the VR earlier, a very good turn of foot in the straight from off the pace. Charlie certainly has some very good young ones for next year.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 6, 2021 4:59 PM GMT
Lay Post

Del Mar 12.40 - Tarnawa

A 5 year old mare trained by Delmot Weld in County Kildare.

I don't need to dissect her form lines as i usually do in a reasoning post, most, if not all readers would be able to recite it the flick of a finger, at least from 2021.

Overall, a better than 50% winning strike rate (from 19) including 8 at group level (3 x G1). Runner-up in the Arc and Irish Champion stakes in her last couple of runs and that form alone is probably good enough to win this evening. Added to that she has only finished out of the first 2 once in her last 9 runs.

So what is there not to like ?

Del Mar is a very tight turf track (inside the dirt course) with sharp bends and she's drawn in 13 although it's actually 11 due to the couple of NR's inside of her. There looks to be plenty of pace in the field and she's been slowly away in recent runs so a repeat will mean she has to do it the hard way on the shortest straight in USA. The going could be on the firm side, probably firmer than ideal.

How much did the Arc run on heavy going take out of her ? The race actually turned into a slog after the 400 metre marker when Adayar took it up, and she did take time to get into top gear.

Don't get me wrong, i have a lot of time for the mare (how could you not) but i've had this lay in mind for a couple of weeks. The risk is higher since the 2nd favourite (Domestic Spending) was withdrawn but at 11/8 (bigger on here) i'm taking it.

I layed her a couple of days ago (RF reduced average odds to 2.45 and i also backed Walton Street at 15.0 (12.51) who i think has a good EW chance. On a line through the Arc winner there isn't much between this one and the favourite, except a chasm in the odds. He's won a G1 in Canada since and will certainly be up with the pace from the off.

I've since layed again at slightly higher odds and will use this bet for the P/L.

Of course she could bolt up, it wouldn't be the first time i've a layed such a type, but sometimes you have to go with a gut feeling and i don't think she will be winning this evening.

Lay @ 2.66.

Good luck all.

06-Nov-21
16:44:18    23:40 Del Mar
Tarnawa - R11 1m4f Grd1
Betfair Bet ID 1:249817325554 | Matched: 06-Nov-21 16:44:18    Lay    2.66    50.00    --    83.00
50.00
Matched
Report Mr_Spreadsheet November 6, 2021 5:32 PM GMT
Good luck and thank you Andrew
Report Lucky Luciano November 6, 2021 6:52 PM GMT
Evening Andrew,
Thanks for the write up as always
Best of luck, due some after last night in Del Mar
Report glentoby November 6, 2021 7:34 PM GMT
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 6, 2021 8:26 PM GMT
Evening Mr_Sreadsheet/Lucky,

Thanks.

We know the risk, but we also know that not all shorties win and everything has to go right for the mare to win. If she does, so be it, she will have deserved it. If not, i'm playing the profit on Sir Marks runner in the Grosser Preis Von Bayern in München tomorrow afternoon and i'll be there to watch it. I'm looking forward to it, i've never been to a German racecourse before.

Good luck later.
Report happysandwich November 6, 2021 8:59 PM GMT
Don’t worry lads – the smart monies on.Laugh

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Tarnawa
2.6
£10.00
£16.00
Ref: 249854087592 Matched: 20:54 06-Nov-21
Report PHS November 7, 2021 8:37 AM GMT
WD AndrewCool
Report Mr_Spreadsheet November 7, 2021 11:10 AM GMT
VWD Andrew. Never a moments worry Happy
Report ashleigh November 7, 2021 2:33 PM GMT
andrew, hope you won plenty off alpinista, 4/5 a decent price. arc form upheld.
Report england_v_south_afri November 7, 2021 3:38 PM GMT
Nice 1 Andrew !!

i do keep an eye on this thread when i see it. Missed quite a few winning lays but managed to lay the Weld horse. Happy

Glad you continue to post. Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 8, 2021 10:29 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

No post yesterday due to forum issues and i was at a racecourse during the afternoon anyway.

Many thanks for the Breeders Cup Tarnawa lay comments, much appreciated. As mentioned i was always comfortable with the selection even a couple of weeks ago before the draw was known. Del Mar is a speed track, sharp bends and there was a lot of pace in the race, the draw factor (later) was simply icing on the cake although i would have preferred the 2nd favourite in the field (withdrawn earlier in the week).

Layers didn’t really have any anxious moments during the race and i assume she went into double figure IR odds quite early. Having said this, i don’t want to critique the mare per se, she may not be a Miesque, Goldikova or Enable, but a very decent type nevertheless, it was simply the wrong race for her. I haven’t seen any reports she will be retired now, i hope not.

Ashleigh

Thanks

My only bet at the course and i was actually surprised at 1.80, i had her a little shorter reviewing the runners over breakfast.

I was also surprised at Sir Marks comment in the RP yesterday morning about a concern that rain had been falling in München. I’m west (the course is East) but we haven’t had so much rain in the past week. I’m not a going expert by any means, but it looked on the soft side of good, definitely not soft.

She had form in the book and there wasn’t much in the race. Very resolute and i didn’t think she would be beaten after taking it up. That’s 3 Group 1’s on the spin in Germany now and her mother won the same 3.

It was my first visit to the course in München (covid has been a restriction). Left handed, an oval (not as sharp as Del Mar) with a long straight over 600 metres in length and winning post close to the bend. Not as opulent as Ascot or Longchamp (i don’t like the new stand at the latter anyway) and nowhere near their overall size, if i had to compare it to a UK standard (at least tracks i know) it would be Windsor. A strong family atmosphere with children playing and lots of dogs/owners (Germans love them). Very relaxed, not much security and when runners returned from the track to the unsaddling area they simply passed through the crowd. An attendant walked in front and in typical German fashion the crowd obeyed the command and stood on each side to create a clear walkway. There didn’t appear to be any restricted areas at all (except the jockey room) people were passing through the unsaddling area willy-nilly.

Limited facilities and the main restaurant was fully booked although there was an indoor Pizza parlour. Several outlets serving typical local fast food, beer, coffee etc and a couple of inside betting areas with an array of screens, all tote of course. A few stalls selling hats, souvenirs, books, bric-a-brac etc. To be honest i was expecting a little better considering there are 5 group race meetings a season, a couple of them G1 (one yesterday) but overall it was fine.

From what i read beforehand the crowd was restricted to 2500 but i sense it was higher. You could reserve a ‘box’ with a table and maximum 4 seats for 30 euros, otherwise it was 20 euros in the stand (usual discounts). I had to produce a covid app vaccination certificate and some of the staff spoke English. Nice looking girls on the gate.

Sir Mark wasn’t there, but the jockey acknowledged my ‘well done Luke’ after the race by raising his hand (probably the only English voice in the crowd) and i got to speak to the female driver that brought the horse over (Roger Varians runner shared it). All in all, an enjoyable afternoon, not necessarily to bet/profit, i was simply curious how Germans did racing. A work colleague told me i have to go to Baden-Baden, apparently it’s the best course in the country in his opinion. It’s on my bucket list for 2022 anyway but that’s a weekend trip.

On to this afternoon, i wasn’t interested in anything  really but did notice Alan King sends a runner Inchicore to Lyon for a 12f listed race, i  suspect heavy going is the reason. Lightly raced, won on soft and heavy. The Godolphin French trained and likely favourite Botanik may be hard to beat, but at decent odds Alans runner may be worth a fun EW, or just a place. I don’t know if Betfair are covering the meeting, but Ze-Turf or the UK high St. may be.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 8, 2021 10:30 AM GMT
I noticed a couple of tying errors in the Tarnawa lay post on Sunday.

Dermot (not Delmot)

19 races should have been 17 races
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 8, 2021 3:12 PM GMT
Lyon 13.07

Prix du Grand Camp - Atlantic (Listed Race) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m4f, £23,214.29

1st Night Tornado 181/10
2nd Mutabahi 7/2
3rd Inchicore 16/1

Happy
Report PHS November 8, 2021 5:52 PM GMT
WD with the placer Andrew. I had a quick look and thought Inchicore had a lot on his plate to even place here; I was wrong, you were right.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 8, 2021 7:53 PM GMT
PHS,

Thank you, i got lucky Laugh

She's well bred (Galileo out of a Danehill dam) lightly raced and had been running in decent class recently including the G3 Simon stakes at Newbury LTO. Outclassed there, but not disgraced and prior to that wasn't beaten far in a listed race at Chester. Both wins were on soft/heavy and she has stayed on well lyon over further than the 12f this afternoon. Lyon is basically a flat track and being heavy i thought she could run a decent race.

Betfair covered the meeting (i wasn't aware of this at time of posting) so i left a 3TBP bet on at 3.50 that was matched, albeit only a small stake. I guess she was matched higher considering the SP. I didn't play the win.

Alan King probably thought she had a chance of place money on her favoured going, it's a long drive from Swindon to Lyon.
Report PHS November 8, 2021 8:55 PM GMT
'her'. I see! I hadn't noticed!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 10, 2021 12:05 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Nicky Henderson sends a relatively expensive purchase, the lightly raced Gallyhill to Exeter (14.40) for a class 3 novice handicap chase. Also entered at Cheltenham on Friday but would have come up against My Drogo.

Winner of a 24f P2P almost 2 years ago and was 30/100f when winning on hurdle debut at Newbury (16.5f) in January this year. May not have won with much in hand considering the odds but a win nevertheless. The form is average and he ran to a slightly better level when finishing runner-up next time out at Ascot (17.5f) although it may have been a different story if the 3rd hadn’t made a terrible mistake when sprawling at the 2nd last. The form of the latter race hasn’t been franked since (at least by winning). Ran poorly LTO (albeit in a Grade 1) and it appears there was a respiratory issue (since had wind surgery).

All form on soft/heavy (good to soft this afternoon) and i see him more of staying chaser in time so maybe 17f is a little on the sharp side.

A small field of 6 (discount the outsider) and not a significant amount between them on ratings (5 lb with respect to the top 4) so layers have 4 running for them

Considering his overall form he’s short at 13/8 and i suspect that connections, purchase price and possible future potential are part of the reasoning.

I mentioned this one on my WhatsApp group (a few posters on here) earlier this morning and have put a lay bet in (currently unmatched). If I do get matched, i may post it as a P/L selection.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 10, 2021 12:09 PM GMT
Ascot 19.5f

maybe 19f

Must learn to proof read Wink
Report Lampus November 10, 2021 12:11 PM GMT
G/L   ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report gazza66 November 10, 2021 2:49 PM GMT
Well done AIS, great call. Fell two out but was in fourth at the time and was already well beaten. It didn’t appear to find a lot once off the bridle.
Report happysandwich November 10, 2021 2:50 PM GMT
Well spotted Andrew, and well done.

Gallhill won a PTP at Kirkistown in Ireland and was sold to a Mr Claudio Michael Grech for £450,000.
What I can’t get my head around is how anybody in their right mind can spend money like that.

Hibore rubs shoulders with Henderson for a lot less.Grin
Report TheAnorak November 10, 2021 4:45 PM GMT
Happy,

To be fair, Mr Grech had a half share in Interconnected, which was sold for £620,000 when the owner of the other half wanted out of racing. They had originally paid £220k for the horse, so he did have a bit of small change available!
Report doorman99 November 10, 2021 9:14 PM GMT
Interconnected (jumps) in the Snaafi Dancer(flat) league of possibly worst very expensive buys ever.
Report happysandwich November 10, 2021 9:47 PM GMT
Don’t take this too serious, I’m only joking, but let’s put life into perspective.
Who got more pleasure out of that race?
Mr Grech hoping Gallyhill would win or me and Andrew’s little band of followers hoping it would lose.

Close your eyes and picture Lampus shaking Mr Grech’s hand and saying WD.Laugh

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Gallyhill
3.5
£10.00
£25.00
Ref: 250182239991 Matched: 14:39 10-Nov-21
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 11, 2021 1:10 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Thanks for the Gillyhill lay comments.

£450,000 may look very expensive soon, he tired quickly before he fell, possibly the reason as he had jumped OK up to that point, so maybe the reported respiratory issues remain even after the wind op.

On to this afternoon at Clonmel (2.25) the fav is Fakir D'oudairies, odds around 5/4 that are too short. Not sure the track will suit. Rivals are race fit and even though he runs well fresh he hasn't won on the last couple of occasions after a break. I think this is a pipe opener for better races further into the season. Royal Rendezvous will play catch me if you can and the field may not be able to.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Report tanglefoot November 12, 2021 9:48 AM GMT
TheAnorak,noticed your horse is running at Kempton 7.30
Has winning form,negative that 8 draw over 7f
Kirby takes the ride,curious why Ghiani, who has a win on the horse didn’t get the ride.
GL
Report TheAnorak November 12, 2021 10:59 AM GMT
Because Marco is riding for his own stable in the race, Stuart Williams. Kirby rode Love Dreams recently and did exactly as asked and gave us useful feedback post race, I'm always happy to have him ride for me. The draw is 7 now with the non runner and not something that bothers me.

Expecting a good run, but aware that at some point, he'll have had enough for this year and that will only show up on the racecourse - his work at home has been fine, but he's a horse that seems to love his job and always does everything asked of him on the gallops.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 12, 2021 12:38 PM GMT
Good luck this evening Alan Happy

Will post tomorrow as i'm on my way back to Linköping for a long weekend.
Report Lucky Luciano November 12, 2021 4:49 PM GMT
Evening Andrew,
Hope you have/had a safe trip
Must be cheaper to hire a window cleaner than keep going back yourself Laugh
Report happysandwich November 12, 2021 5:22 PM GMT
^
LaughLaugh
Report TheAnorak November 12, 2021 8:03 PM GMT
Second again - somebody knew the winner was going to improve. He'd been dropped 6lbs for his last two runs - taken us two years to go down the same amount! But no complaints, picked up some prize money and he's now earned just over £15k this year, and you could win two or three races and not collect that much, as well as being put up in the handicap for winning.
Report Lucky Luciano November 12, 2021 8:46 PM GMT
Have to admire Love Dreams consistency countered by the exasperation of finishing second once again.
Adam Kirby rode a good race, like a bullet whipping the hood off and getting a blinding start.
Apologies for the pun Cry
Report TheAnorak November 13, 2021 9:04 AM GMT
Kirby is ideal for us, as he takes a ride for our small stable in a class 5 just as seriously as one for his main yard in a big race. Post race yesterday, he said he'd love to keep the ride, but suggested we consider using a 5lb claimer to get an edge, as the horse is a straightforward ride.

And we've done that in the past, particularly with Marco Ghiani, but 5lb claimers as good as him aren't common. As you mention Lucky, that ability to time the start is a key with this horse and the senior jockeys simply do that better.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 15, 2021 9:38 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Last full day in my adopted home of Linköping, back to München tomorrow (KLM permitting) for a few weeks although i will certain return before Christmas. A relaxing weekend, stayed in Stockholm Friday night and Saturday daytime, a long time since i walked around the capital city.

The only ITV race i watched on Saturday was the novice chase with Third Time Lucki who didn't win as easily as i expected, but did it nevertheless. He wasn't as fluent as over CD LTO but is probably the best novice chaser in UK to date, albeit very early days of course.

The Skeltons are hitting form and i noticed Nube Negra won at Cheltenham yesterday and Dan talking of a Tingle Creek entry. With Willie sending over Chacun Pour Soi (i can't see Energumene running) it's looking a decent race and i'm looking forward to it (meeting up with several forum posters). Tingle Creek aside it will probably be a decent card anyway, so i may even do the 2 days.

Looking forward, the Betfair chase this Saturday and i have already layed the favourite A Plus Tard currently trading at 3.45 that i feel is far too short even though he is a Gold Cup runner-up. More about this race on the day.

On to this afternon, i didn't really fancy anything, but i have layed a hurdle debutant at Leicester (3.00) in the David Pipe trained Macha albeit via a certain amount of intuition as opposed to form. The trainer actually runs a couple and i would have thought the other was maybe the better although she's giving away a 6 lb winner penalty. His strike rate with hurdle debut runners is not that good. Angels Landing ran to a reasonable level LTO and is one of the likely winners.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Alan

Unlucky with Love Dreams on Friday, but maybe i put the mockers on it as it's the first time i've ever backed one of your runners. It was only a fun 25 win anyway because i thought he really had a decent chance and odds of 6.50 on here were better than i expected. To reiterate Lucky Lucinanos comments he's certainly consistent and deserves to win a race soon, but 15K prize money is certainly paying his way.

Have you considered running him at Wolverhamton again ?

Lucky

Must be cheaper to hire a window cleaner than keep going back yourself

Laugh

I know you were joking and washing my apartment windows is not the reason for returning to Linköping, there is a finanical reason (German tax relief). Apart from that i love it here and spent well over 21 years actually working at the Saab aerospace facility. It's a very comfortable city to live in, nice people and everyone speaks English. If there is a negative, the winters can be long, but i've got used to them and what Swedes call 'real' winter (-10c, virgin snow, Blue sky, sunny, frost in the trees etc) is really beautiuful.
Report TheAnorak November 15, 2021 10:13 AM GMT
Morning Andrew,

Although LD won at Wolverhampton, jockey, trainer and owner all felt he didn't handle the sharp bends well, so we've not been keen to return. In addition, prize money for a 0-80 (which is what he'll have to run in next as he's bound to be raised for the last run) is £9,700 at Wolves and £11,200 at Kempton. That might not matter to Godolphin, but it matters to me!

His planned next run is on Dec 15th at Kempton.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 15, 2021 12:30 PM GMT
Afternoon Guys,

Just checked odds of my suggested lay selection Macha earlier this morning, currently 6.8, so not lost one leg, but two it appears. Matched below 3 initially (for buttons) albeit not by me.


Alan,

Thanks for the update, i will keep an eye open on race day, hope the handicapper gives you some leeway. Good luck.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 17, 2021 12:15 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

A short post, basically a suggested lay of Fontaine Collonges (12.30 Warwick) currently trading around 2.36.

Winner of a couple of bumpers (one in France) and a novice hurdle at Leicester although the latter was essentially a 3 horse race (5/6f) where she was receiving 13 lb and won by a neck. Only the sole run over the larger obstacles finishing 4th albeit last of a group where the remainder were never in it and finished well strung out. Wetherby is a world away from Warwick in terms of track configuration and tricky for a novice chaser (although with respect to the latter point all are in the same boat of course).

Up in trip by almost 5f compared to LTO and she didn’t run well over 17f on this course last year although to be fair it was a decent race.

I layed at 2.34 earlier as i thought she was short enough where more or less any of the 7 in the field could win.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
Report Mr_Spreadsheet November 17, 2021 12:21 PM GMT
Thanks Andrew and good luck!
Report BESTMATE44 November 17, 2021 12:38 PM GMT
Unlucky Andrew,thought you had it won!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 17, 2021 12:40 PM GMT
Thanks Guys,

Sad

I didn't see the race, only the result. I will watch the VR tonight and hope for a different finishing order. Laugh
Report TheAnorak November 19, 2021 8:15 AM GMT
Morning All,

A big couple of days ahead for N Henderson, whose usual November rush of winners has yet to arrive this year. Is that all down to the weather, or is the yard continuing the slow decline that began with the retirement of Corky Brown. I was at Newbury earlier this month, a meeting often dominated by Henderson - he had 4 runners that produced two seconds (one at 8/15), a refused to race and a 9th in the bumper. The big Cheltenham meeting went by with just four Henderson runners and no winners.

The total for this month so far is 7 winners, compared to November scores of 22,17,18,19 in the four previous years. Five runners at Ascot today, four of which are currently priced at 4/1 or less. Four runners across three meetings tomorrow. Will you be a layer or a backer?
Report second again November 19, 2021 9:23 AM GMT
I have not looked at tomorrows runners yet,today I think Captain Morgs in the 2.40 Ascot has every chance and will be a win bet.I have thought that Hendersons eye problems must be a negative for training horses.Any stable would miss someone as experienced as Corky Brown.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 19, 2021 12:41 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Looks a decent enough card at Ascot this afternoon, albeit a few small fields, and i doubt it’s as cut and dried as the betting odds may suggest.

If there is a bet or two, i think Torn And Frayed will make all the running to win the 12.55 and later a lay of the likely favourite Captain Morgs in the 2.40 could both pay out. Odds of 6/4 are skinny, it looks a tricky handicap to me, he was receiving 15 lb when 3rd LTO and is dropping in trip considerably. Did have decent form as a 4 year old but hasn’t reproduced it since.

Some of you may have read/seen the covid situation in Bavaria is worsening, so much so that new measures were implemented Monday and yesterday. Part of the new rules mean those non-vaccinated (i am) will not be allowed to use public transportation, enter public facilities (including brothels oddly enough) nor to go to work without a negative test. At the DLR (where i am) i will have to work remote (home) on alternate days from next Monday and i’ve been informed i can take as much free time as is practical for the project, or even work in Sweden. I’m currently looking for office space at major race tracks in UK. Laugh

Seriously, as a result of the new measures, i may be going to Sandown on both days on Tingle Creek weekend, but certainly the Saturday. A 4 day weekend in London is appealing.

Alan/Second Again

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated.

S-A, good luck (one of us will be celebrating Wink)

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report PHS November 19, 2021 4:37 PM GMT

Nov 19, 2021 -- 2:15AM, TheAnorak wrote:


Morning All,A big couple of days ahead for N Henderson, whose usual November rush of winners has yet to arrive this year. Is that all down to the weather, or is the yard continuing the slow decline that began with the retirement of Corky Brown. I was at Newbury earlier this month, a meeting often dominated by Henderson - he had 4 runners that produced two seconds (one at 8/15), a refused to race and a 9th in the bumper. The big Cheltenham meeting went by with just four Henderson runners and no winners. The total for this month so far is 7 winners, compared to November scores of 22,17,18,19 in the four previous years. Five runners at Ascot today, four of which are currently priced at 4/1 or less. Four runners across three meetings tomorrow. Will you be a layer or a backer?


2 winners; couldn't make it upMischief

Report The Management November 19, 2021 5:05 PM GMT
Stats, patterns and trends are there to be defied! - It's the Law of the Sod!

But for lovers of stats/patterns/trends, I just posted my interesting one for yesterday on the snooker forum  - When Higgins played Ding yesterday and won the first frame (odds approx 4/5) it was the 12th consecutive time that he had won the first frame when meeting Ding.

For Andrew, I have gone with the Bavarian connection for todays Interesting Stat/pattern/trend:

Augsburg versus Bayern Munich (19:30 tonight). There has been a First Half Goal in 52 of Bayerns last 54 league games (That's 96.3% and Current odds for Over 0.5 First Half Goals tonight is 1.22). Which seems even more generous when you consider that Augsburg have conceded within 15 minutes in 6 of their 11 league games so far and also that there has been a goal within 17 minutes in 8 of Bayerns 11 games so far.

If you believe in the forum curse or just think stats/patterns/trends are there to be defied, Under 0.5 First Half Goals is available at about 9/2.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 20, 2021 10:54 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

I’m surprised i’m allowed to post today after the couple of selections i put up yesterday, a lay and a back, i should have reversed the bets. I mentioned Torn And Frayed would make all the running to win and if he hadn’t jump to the left at virtually every fence i would have been correct. To be fair the winner copied him in playing follow the leader (novice chasers often do) albeit not to the same extent. I thought Torn And Frayed would probably win jumping the last (in front) but Harry Skelton did the right thing by going for the rail, he knew he would have the space. A good race on the run-in but the winner stayed on better to win by 3/4L.

As for the lay of Captain Morgs, i simply got it wrong. Based on form alone he was short enough at 7/4f and the only positive i thought was his weight and considering the 12 lb less he was carrying than the runner-up it was enough (won by 3/4L). Never mind, when you fall off a bike etc.

A few decent cards this afternoon with the Betfair Chase taking pride of place, there’s also a couple of decent novice chasers running on both sides of the Irish Sea in Bob Olinger (Gowran 12.00) and Bravemansgame (Haydock 1.50). Both may win (albeit at restricted odds) but it will be interesting to see how they run without betting.

Last Monday i posted that A Plus Tard was short enough in the betting for the Betfair chase (Haydock 3.00) and a few NR’s (including one earlier in Next Destination) that have reduced his odds even further. Clearly the form horse in the field and a rightful favourite, but will a ‘less than testing’ Haydock first time out play to his strengths. He runs well enough fresh, but in 3 November season debuts he hasn’t won and i also feel he may prefer a little more juice in the ground. Will he be 100% today ? I’m actually thinking to put this one up as a P/L selection later, but it’s a risky one. Irrespective of this i’ve already layed him at 2.28.

Backers of Defi Du Seuil (Ascot 2.05) will be hoping he can regain his 2019/2020 form (would be short here if so) but you need a lot of faith even after a wind operation. Up in trip and i was a layer at 3.85 earlier.

Readers of this thread know my friend Brigust1 (Laurie Williamson) who was groom for the great Brigadier Gerard and often posts here (and letters to the RP) specially when it comes to ratings and comparison with Frankel, understandable given his connection with the horse. He’s beeen wiling his time writing a book, now published and available via the link below for those that are interested (i’m not on commission Laugh). Hope it sells well Laurie.

www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk.

PHS/The Management

Thanks for the posts and WD with the Augsburg v Bayern München game (surprising result).

Second Again

WD with the win yesterday, hope you made plenty (some of it mine Wink).

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 20, 2021 11:07 AM GMT
www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk
Report Trusty November 20, 2021 11:16 AM GMT
Thanks for posting Andrew and GL.

I am going to risk a lay of Might I in the first at around 1.95. Been tried in higher class before and wasn't successful and although impressive in lower grade all the others seem to have a chance to me and thus market looks wrong.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 20, 2021 12:09 PM GMT
Thanks Trusty. I noticed yours is a NR one of quite a few this afternoon.

Bob Olinger backers may have a scare or two over the fences, but he won well enough in the end.
Report second again November 20, 2021 12:27 PM GMT
Thanks Andrew,the 2nd must have traded very short,I am not a big backer but enjoy the game.I hope you get it back soon.
Report Lucky Luciano November 20, 2021 1:40 PM GMT
Afternoon Andrew,
Times at Haydock seem to indicate to me the going is not much worse than good (hurdle course has now been changed to good) 12.40 chase over 3m.4f race ran just outside RP standard time of 7.23 (according to time I took off the tv 7.27 been waiting for confirmation but not on RP site yet)
I've picked one out in the hardest race today 2.25 Haydock in Riggs. Dan Skelton has stated this is the plan, Harry gone up from Ascot (could have rode there) and has nothing to carry only 10.4lb perfect age and unexposed. Against that he is probably not the only one with similar profile !
Good luck and thanks for the write up
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 21, 2021 11:47 AM GMT
Good afternoon Guys from a very sunny West of München.

The often used greeting above will be a thing of the past soon (in part at least) as the owner of my rental apartment is returning in January so i will be moving. A pity as it's in a lovely area with a large lake just outside the city and i like it here. 5 minutes walk to the S-Bahn, a oouple more to the lake and hotel where i often have a drink and watch the wind surfers/boats.

It's a small, very touristy area and in summertime it appears half of München decends on it, but with distant views of the Alps and an Italian flavour it's hardly surprising. in 2019 i was living in Pasing (a nice part of München) before moving here and i looked at an apartment close to that area yesterday, so it looks like back to the city life for me soon.

The covid situation in parts of Europe is worsening specially in Germany and Austria, in fact the latter is going to introduce en-masse mandatory vaccination next year. Not so here (at least not yet) and i have my doubts it would be accepted (although it will be for healthcare workers) but new stringent measures were implemented by the Bavarian state on Monday and Thursday, as did my workplace the German DLR. It's not all bad, i will be working remote from home on alternate days for the next few weeks at least so more RP/ITV racing time. Wink

On to racing yesterday, i got Defi De Seuil right (i sense he's fallen out of love with the game and is best avoided) but conversely i must have had a brain fog moment by suggesting the favourite A Plus Tard was a lay in the Betfair chase (albeit risky). Was there a more easier and impressive winner all afternoon. Of course with 3 main rivals in a small field failing to complete the course his task was made much easier, but he travelled so well and had the race sewn up before the 4th last, and in a fast time. Simply different class.

We did see another top class winner at Haydock, this time a novice, Bravemansgame who was surprisingly available at 4/5 on here in the morning. Whilst the winning distance was nowhere near the chasm A Plus Tard won by, the manner of his win was very impressive, Harry never moved on him and i could have ridden it.

In my opinion he's the best novice seen so far this season and it will take a good one to beat him at Kempton next time out. I've never been to the Boxing day meeting and although it's very unlikely i will go this year, it's tempting although i would have to bribe by daughter with a trip to Oxford street. Laugh

Over at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) this morning i noticed that Golden Sixty took his record to 18/19 (15 on the spin) in the Group 2 Jockey Club Mile, what is more remarkable is he often wins in a photo, in fact 3 of his last 4 by a head or short head. Will we see him at Royal Ascot next summer ? I doubt it, he's only ever raced at Sha Tin and why travel when you can mop up high value Group races at home (winner of approaching 8 million GBP now).

I looked through the cards earlier that are typical of those on a Sunday afternoon although a few of the races look interesting including the Grade 3 at Navan.

There wasn't anything that really jumped off the page, but i thought a runner at Uttoxeter (1.10) was lay material in Bootlegger (currently 2.88). Consistent, but not really progressing. Has form on sharp tracks but his last couple of wins were at Doncaster and off marks of 119 and 120. On 126 this afternoon and he's run to similar levels in his previous 4 races without getting his head in front. A small field of 6 where all (bar one) are closely matched. I layed earlier at 2.96.

I've hit a lull in my lay selections since i returned from Sweden on Tuesday, perhaps i should have stayed and simply enjoyed the Glögg (Mulled Wine). Back there again next Friday, but returning early Monday morning, so a short trip.

Mind you laying at such short odds is obviously going to throw up winners, it's an accepted part of the game. As for the P/L on this thread i'm going to scroll back and update it, i used to post it after each applicable race but it got left behind and will take a little time to type it out. Never mind, home office tomorrow. Wink. I'm fairly sure there will be in small profit as i was on a roll with P/L selections after a poor start.

I posted a link to Brigust1 new book about Brigadier Gerard yesterday, albeit incorrectly first (full stop at the end). I corrected it, but here it is again, maybe a Christmas present to yourself.

www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Second Again/Lucky

Thank you for the posts.
Report Lampus November 21, 2021 1:19 PM GMT
Well  done ANDREW   HappyHappy
Report second again November 21, 2021 1:52 PM GMT
A good lay,well beaten.
Report second again November 21, 2021 1:52 PM GMT
A good lay,well beaten.
Report PHS November 21, 2021 4:56 PM GMT
Andrew,
Your grammar is usually exemplary, but "Was there a more easier and impressive winner all afternoon" will take me a while to recover from!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 22, 2021 7:50 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Working remotely from home thanks to Angela Merkel, not something i particularly enjoy although it does have its advantages of course.

Only 31 runners at Kempton, but it's not a bad card actually and at least no fields with long odds-on favourites. WPM doesn't send many to the track and i was hoping his mare My Sister Sarah would be a better price in the listed Race (1.60 is short enough). The other meetings are typical of a Monday with a few interesting races.

I looked through the cards earlier and thought Sebastopol (Kempton 1.15) was layable at odds around 2.20. If there is a case of forever the bridesmaid never the bride, this one certainly fits the bill with a run of 7 runner-up finishes on the spin. Not ungenuine by any means, just not good enough on the day. Connections apppear to be undecided what his best trip is, he's tried several between 16f and 25.5f recently.

Tends to jump to the left that could be a negative on this course. Ran well enough to finish just under 5L behind Third Time Lucki LTO, but the winner won cosily. Only 3 runners, but a decent race where any of thm could win although i don't think Sebastopol will.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Lampus/Second Again

Thank you. Layers never really had a worry and i was very surprised at the 6/5f SP. Always nice to get a shortie beaten.

PHS

Agree on the latter part and i hold my hands up.

Was there an easier, more impressive winner .............. Wink
Report Trusty November 22, 2021 2:24 PM GMT
You got a 1.01 beat AIS! I left an IR lay but not as low as that :-(
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 22, 2021 2:57 PM GMT
Trusty

Never in doubt Laugh

Seriously, i got lucky with the last fence fall, otherwise he would have won of course. We need a little luck in betting and it was on my side today. Getting these shorties beaten is a bonus, as was 10/11 on My Sister Sarah.
Report sofiakenny November 22, 2021 3:01 PM GMT
Ya jammy git!!LaughLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 22, 2021 3:15 PM GMT
Sofiakenny

It was all planned Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 23, 2021 1:11 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Another day working remotely from home and it could be all week.

Very ordinary cards today but i did notice a John Gosden/Goldophin, well bred newcomer named Aerospace running at Chelmsford this evening. No i don't own it and considering it cost 300,000 gns at the Tattersall Decemer Sales this is hardly surprising. If it had been double fiugure odds (no chance) i would have had a fun bet, but i will watch the race anyway.

A runner i thought could be lay material is the short priced favorite Aire Valley Lad (Sedgefield 2.45). Lighty raced, winner of a bumper and hurdle, but only 3 runs over the larger obstacles. Finished 3rd of 7 LTO but dissect the form, only 4 finished (beaten over 12L) and he was receiving 24 lb and 23 lb respectively from those in front.

Has run over the course but was well beaten. The fences are easy here and this may assist lack of chase experience by the others. Only a small field of 5, forget the outsider and it looks a tricky handicap. Up in trip to 19.5f and his run at Hexham over 20f earlier in the year didn't show him in a good light, albeit in a better race. I've layed him at 2.40 and it looks as though the odds haven't moved in either direction all morning.

Stable form is a negative for layers, but i thought he was very short at 5/4.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report Lampus November 23, 2021 1:28 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW Happy
Report paulmul November 23, 2021 2:53 PM GMT
Nice one Andrew
Report TheAnorak November 23, 2021 2:53 PM GMT
Aerospace has been diverted to Wolverhampton!

It's a race that highlights how difficult it is to win a simple novice stakes worth less than £4k to the winner. Two Gosden runners, two for Charlie Appleby, two for Andrew Balding, two for Mark Johnston and one from William Haggas. At least a million quids worth of potential racing on the AW, but still there are people who complain that it's all rubbish.
Report The Management November 23, 2021 4:36 PM GMT
Harley tried to launch him at the furlong pole - but he didn't take off!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 23, 2021 4:37 PM GMT
Lampus/Paulmul

Thank you.

Aire Valley Lad was well backed (10/11f) but for what reason is mindboggling although he looked the likely winner 3 fences out. The eventual winner deserves credit though, staying on strongly although i suspect the favourite was also tiring.

It's nice to get shorties beaten, more so when they are odds-on.

Alan

Due to fog at Stansted airport Wink

I don't know why i mentioned Chelmsford, i must have had last nights head on.

Just seen the result, JG won with the stablemate
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 23, 2021 4:39 PM GMT
The Management

Exceeded MTOW (maximum take off weight) Wink
Report The Management November 23, 2021 4:39 PM GMT
Aerospace - they will have to try a New Approach if they want to Sea The Stars.

I'll get me coat!
Report TheAnorak November 23, 2021 4:45 PM GMT
An object lesson in why being drawn in stall one is rarely beneficial at Wolverhampton, at least in a field of that size. Ideal for a proven front runner of course, but a trap for anything that doesn't lead.
Report The Management November 23, 2021 4:53 PM GMT
Yes Alan - the one box at Southwell (Fibresand) was a coffin-box (specifically over 6 furlongs) for many years - strangely towards the very end that didn't seem to be the case to the same extent and (although sadly and obviously it's irrelevant now) it still bugs me a bit as to why it evened out a tiny bit right at the end.
Report TheAnorak November 23, 2021 5:23 PM GMT
I always thought that Southwell had a build up of the track material along that inside rail, caused by the maintenance done with rollers and harrows, which probably didn't always get right up against the rail. So the horse in stall one was running on deeper, slower ground. Back in the days when I was still betting there (up to about 2006), I'd avoid all low drawn horses and keep a list of those that ran well from stall one for future reference.

As to the change at the end, maybe with the complete replacement of the surface coming up soon, they just stopped working on the track, or at least reduced the amount of time and effort put into maintenance.
Report The Management November 23, 2021 6:12 PM GMT
Agree your rationale as to why stall one was such a disadvantage - I never laid/place laid them blind and always checked running style/make up of the race - but for whatever reason the inside surface was deeper and the kickback horrid and you could have profitably just laid them blind in 6f Handicaps.

Regarding the change (right at the end) - what you say is possible. I guess it wasn't a secret but laying them and note-booking the ones that ran well despite the draw was very profitable for many years, specifically (for me) in the 6f Handicaps.

Then I can remember (Sir) Bob Cooper (Love) reading out an incredible (but slightly inaccurate) stat about stall one over 6 furlongs that he said one of the crew had told him. I think he said something like 76 consecutive losers if 8 runners or more (something like that). I don't think it was accurate but I was playing decent sized field Handicaps only and mostly place laying. Either way (as you'd expect from Bob) it wasn't an accurate stat but I was horrified when he shared it!

I cursed him for publicly giving away such valuable information but it was towards the end anyway. Law of the sod and karma for Sir Bob for blabbing - I'm pretty sure that stall one then won the 6f (non-handicap) race that he was previewing when he read out the stat!

There were limited meetings remaining, so not too many more 6f Handicaps with adequate runners for me - but it went to pot (after years of success) for the last handful of meetings from the point where Bob shared the stat.

Let's see what the tapeta brings! GL.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 24, 2021 2:32 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Doitforandrew won at Dundalk earlier, how much did i have on as a fun bet ? Sad

Alan/The Management

Thanks for the posts, interesting.
Report Trusty November 26, 2021 6:40 PM GMT
Going to try another lay tomorrow, hopefully not a non-runner again.

Although Nina The Terrier is actually 5lb better of with both Ahorsewithnoname and Elle Est Belle; the latter simply cruised up in the last race before blowing up and will surely make a race of it this time. Nina also seems to have a preference for Good ground and the overnight rain on top of the incredulous decision to water probably means at least SOFT tomorrow. King has also tried to win this race 7 times without success and I don't have a longer history but the last 5 years at least the race has been won by an unpenalised horse. There are four running four me and Rainyday Woman looks over-priced in double figures.

Lay Nina for 3pts Currently 2.82/2.84
Win back Elles Est Belle 1.5pts Currently 2.80/2.84
Win back Rainyday Woman 0.5pts Currently 10.0/13.5 10/1 with the books generally.

GL me and you if you play.Grin
Report TheAnorak November 26, 2021 8:00 PM GMT
Trusty,

I've a feeling you've got the wrong end of the going stick about the watering at Newbury. The watering was done last week in order to produce the good to soft, good in places. That's why the going report says 'watered' - past tense. They haven't been watering ground that was already good to soft.

Actually, all they've done is keep the going about the same as it was for the first NH meeting on Nov 4th. Race times today were plenty quick enough to suggest that they haven't overdone it. Yes, the rain will have an effect, but it would have had an effect if they hadn't watered - but then they wouldn't have had so many runners either.
Report Trusty November 27, 2021 12:18 AM GMT
Thanks Alan, tbh with the move in the stocks, energy and metal markets today I haven't been paying full attention but I am adamantly opposed to watering especially in Winter months. If we end up with small fields so be-it but plenty of horses act better on good or better ground and rarely get the chance to show their value with CoC's being influenced by the big trainers to unnecessarily water to attract a big name horse or two.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 27, 2021 9:33 AM GMT
Good morning Guys from a chilly Linköping, the Aerospace capital of Scandinavia.

Only a short visit this time, arrived last night and back to Germany on Monday morning. Light snow in München when i left, but not here.

Some decent races this afternoon although i have a feeling Newcastle and Bangor will be abandoned due to adverse weather down there, if not, the courses could resemble the Oxfoed/Cambridge boat race.

I only had a single bet yesterday (also my nap in the comps) Nassalam in the novice chase, readers know i like this one and i put it up for his previous win. Won easily, but luck is an understatement (watch the VR) so perhaps i should play the local lottery later.

Looking through the cards earlier i made a few mental notes, but i'm waiting to see what's on/off. Matt will be on soon to inform us.

There is a match at Doncaster 4.28 and i was surprised to see the betting so close, i feel Jacamar should be shorter and is the likely winner, consequently i layed the PN runner Flic Ou Voyou at a tad over evens earlier. He didn't look that good on chase debut LTO and although both are half-decent hurdle handicappers (closely matched on ratings) i think his sole rival will have too much pace for him.

I noticed WPM still has three entries in the Tingle Creek next weekend, Chacun Pour Soi, Energumene and Allaho. If all these run will will eat my socks, ante-post punters beware.

Alan/Trusty

Thank you for the posts, always good to read.

On the topic of ground conditions, there's an old adage that class horses can run/win on any going, i don't subscribe to this althought the likes of Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and Frankel would disagree. Nevertheless as we all know some trainers are averse to running their decent ones on anything without soft in the going description at this time of the year and 'wrapped in cotton wool' is often quoted.

Of course welfare has improved over the years, and rightly so (for horses, not trainers Wink) but go back in time and we used to see 'hard' that basically rode like the M4. If i remember Bath was one such course in the summer months due to no watering system there.

Good luck with your selections Trusty.

More later, but i'm meeting a friend for lunch at 13.00, so not sure how much racing i will see.
Report TheAnorak November 27, 2021 10:00 AM GMT
Snowing heavily now in Swindon and settling in my garden - enough already to put racing at risk if they get the same and the radar showsd it heading in their direction.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 27, 2021 10:39 AM GMT
Alan,

When i first read your post, i thought you had typed Snowing heavily in Sweden and settling in my garden

A fair bit of travelling to watch your horses, but you could run them at Jägersro or Bro Park. Wink
Report doorman99 November 27, 2021 12:29 PM GMT
Well done Trusty
Report Lucky Luciano November 27, 2021 12:29 PM GMT
WD Trusty
Was at Newbury and backed Elle est belle last time remember Skelton said post race he was annoyed with himself for not getting enough work into her, which proved to be the case as would have won anyway today
Glad NTT got up apparently OK
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 28, 2021 10:08 AM GMT
Good chilly morning Guys (-2c)

It appears the weather will play a major part in racing this afternoon with Carlisle off and an inspection at Leicester at 10.30. Fairyhouse looks safe and there is a decent group card at Auteuil although no GB/Irish interest that i could see.

I plan to go to one of Linköpings several sportsbars and watch Bristol City in the midday kick off if they show it. I'm only interested in backing one at Fairyhouse anyway  to pay for a decent lunch and a couple of drinks, not Honeysuckle, but Fil Dor in the 12.35. Odds-on are not for everyone, but he looked a decent juvenile when winning very impressively LTO. May not have beaten much that day, but he couldn't have won any easier and looked above average.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Trusty

WD on your selections, hope you made a nice few bob.

My lunch date yesterday turned into all afternoon so i didn't see any ITV racing at all and my only bet was in the match race at Doncaster (i watched the VR). When Jacamar took the lead 3 out and was travelling better than his his sole rival i would have expected him to pull away, but he was disappointing and didn't find anything at all, to her credit Bryony got the eventual winner back up.

Alan

Are you attending Sandown next weekend ?
Report happysandwich November 28, 2021 12:50 PM GMT
Well done Andrew - bon appetite

I only won a beef-burger and it looked like I was going to be doing the washing up with 50yds to go.Laugh

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Fil Dor
1.60
£50.00
£30.12
Ref: 251943516101 Matched: 12:33 28-Nov-21
Report TheAnorak November 28, 2021 2:18 PM GMT
Andrew,

Getting there presents a problem:

3 December – 6 December 2021 – full weekend closure between junctions 6 and 8/9

The M4 will be closed in both directions over the weekend of 3 December – 6 December 2021 between Junctions 6 (Slough-Windsor) and 8/9 (Maidenhead). The closure will start after 8pm Friday 3 December and the motorway will reopen by 6am on Monday 6 December.

I could use a longer route via the M3 or M40, but with the first race at 12:05, that would mean leaving home before I've woken up!
Report happysandwich November 28, 2021 2:34 PM GMT
^
Alan,

Have your breakfast before you go to bed, it’s a time saver.
Report Lucky Luciano November 28, 2021 7:39 PM GMT
“Have your breakfast before you go to bed, it’s a time saver” Laugh
And go to bed in your clothes
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 28, 2021 9:16 PM GMT
Happysandwich,

The result was never in doubt. Laugh

Seriously, i always thought he was going to win on the run-in, but he was more workmanlike than anything else and i expected better to be honest. The field didn't look much, not to grade 3 standard at least, but this is often the case in these typical Irish juvenile events and the front two pulled away. I was surprised at the BSP (1.77 ?) much better than i envisaged this morning and higher than i backed it at.

Alan

OK i understand. I don't have such travelling issues arriving in Gatwick but i do need to take a PCR test and isolate before the result (thank you Boris) so i will try to get it done on arrival.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 28, 2021 9:18 PM GMT
Forgot to mention, WD on the bet Happysandwich Happy
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