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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 07:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,332 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
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Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 13, 2021 6:44 PM BST
Indian Cricket - 999/1

700            £4
730            £0
820            £20
940            £3
950            £0
990            £20
1000        £0    £616

Went to the last 2 balls Shocked
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2021 2:56 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Back in the office but it doesn’t stop me looking at the RP most days when i can find some Andrew time.

The flat jockeys title race is getting interesting (as is my bet) with Buick reducing the deficit to 2 (from 6) in the last couple of days and he may be able to pull another back at Chelmsford this evening. In terms of rides today/tomorrow it’s 15/11 in favour of Buick and at Ascot on Saturday (final day) it’s 5/4 respectively. I mentioned yesterday it could go to the wire and who knows, maybe Adayar will be the decider (no ride for OM in the race).

On to this afternoon, my suggested lay is Ran Rite (Tramore 3.47) who isn’t really named well at the moment although his hurdle form of last year is not that bad in the context of this race. He hasn’t looked a natural chaser in 4 runs by any means although he did win a P2P a couple of years ago. Very much one paced and not one you would want to be lumping on even if it is backed. A small field of 5, all in with a shout really and although i like Champagne Sparkles (the drink is over-rated in my opinion) it’s not backing race for me. I layed earlier, my only bet so far.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Report Lampus October 14, 2021 3:04 PM BST
Good Luck ANDREW Happy
Report BESTMATE44 October 14, 2021 3:56 PM BST
Well done Andrew,jumped poorly and never really in with a chance,a nice lay!
Report Lampus October 14, 2021 3:56 PM BST
EASY  PEASY  Thank you ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2021 4:32 PM BST
Lampus/Bestmate

Thank you.

7/4f was too short really and jumping left on a right handed, sharp course, more akin to Wimbledon doesn't help.

He didn't jump that well over the hurdles course either last year, but in truth he's simply not that good.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 15, 2021 1:41 PM BST
Good sunny afternoon Guys,

Only a meagre post this afternoon (workload) but a suggested lay nevertheless in No No Maestro (Uttoxeter 3.40). Form figures of -3211 may initially suggest an improving chaser, but it's not conclusive from a ratings perspective. Ignore his debut run off 107 (PU) and his 3rd next time out wasn’t a poor run by any means (receiving 9 lb and 10 lb respectively). His 2nd (of 4) was a similar story (receiving 14 lb) the placers weren’t at the races and were all but tailed off. His penultimate race resulted in a win by a neck in a 5 runner field where 2 failed to finish (receiving 18 lb) and a mistake by the runner-up cost him the race. His win LTO was at least on level terms but certainly aided by the runner-up who found very little on the run in (has won since to be fair). 

The handicapper hasn’t been overly impressed by the recent wins only raising him from 104 to 107 and in my opinion he’s been a little fortunate (and well placed by the trainer). A bigger field this afternoon, only 3 below him in the weights and it looks a tricky race to call. I was a layer before lunch although i appreciate i could have got him completely wrong and he really is improving.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report stewarts rise October 15, 2021 1:49 PM BST
Good luck Andrew, just point out that F O'brien has an excellent record with his chasers at Uttoxeter, around 25% overall but currently 57% this season, let's hope Ask a Honeybee wins earlier.
Report Lampus October 15, 2021 2:07 PM BST
G/L ANDREW Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 15, 2021 2:16 PM BST
Thanks Stewart/Lampus,

If anyone is going to lay it, it may be prudent to do it IR as he's certain to go off in front, but he's not the most fluent over fences. A risk of course, but at 15/8 i was happy to lay him.

Good luck.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 15, 2021 3:55 PM BST
Could i have got it any more wrong !

Possibly the easiest winner of the day.
Report stewarts rise October 15, 2021 4:17 PM BST
Just one of those things, you put up good reasons to lay it but horse has improved from previous runs, never mind.
Report BESTMATE44 October 15, 2021 4:50 PM BST
You can't win em all Andrew!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 9:14 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Another Saturday champions day following Newmarket last week, this time at Ascot with the seasons final G1 race for 3 year olds and older. The media appear to be building it up into a trio of 'duels' commencing with Trueshan v Stradivarius, on to Palace Pier v Baaeed and culminating in Mishriff v Adayar. They obviously didn't spot Maries Diamond v Matthew Flinders in the concluding Balmoral handicap (i obviously woke up with my sarcastic head on). It's doubtful whether all these purported matches will materialise in a 1-2 and it's not impossible for none of the pre-mentioned to win either.

If i do play any of the named horses i think it will be backing Trueshan and laying Stradivarius to cover a stake in the opener (1.25) albiet mindful of how hard a race he had in Paris a couple of weeks ago (this applies to several runners this afternoon).

I favour Mishriff in the Champions stakes (3.50) more so considering his preparation and i think a 3TBP could pay dividends with respect to the improving Dubai Honour.

In the minefield that is the Balmoral handicap (4.30) i already had a couple of fun bets last night on Dashing Roger and Rosscolyn both matched at win odds of 36. I like both (with the proviso of how tricky this race is) but the draw has been kinder to the latter. I appreciate the favourite Sunray Major could be a group horse in the making, but there is no way i could be tempted to back this one at 9/4, not only based on the high draw and i will certainly be laying this one.

All backing stakes on the above are/will be small but depending on how the afternoon pans out i may lay the latter to cover all stakes and a small profit (assuming he's beaten of course).

Black type races are thin on the ground elsewhere (a soft G3 and listed in Ireland) but on the other side of the globe earlier this morning the 13/10 favourite and 5 year old Incentivise won the 12f Caulfield Cup (easily) despite a poor draw, earning over £1.7 million in the process and heads for the race that stops a nation on November 2nd. He's going to take some stopping even though he steps up significantly to 3200 metres (16f). Mind you, current ante-post odds of 9/4 are not exactly appealing.

Staying with Australia, many will remember the ex-AOB trained Sir Dragonet (Chester Vase winner) who left Irish shores to continue his racing over there, winning the Cox Plate. Sadly he was put down earlier today after a gallop injury. RIP.

Looking at the NH cards there were a few potential lays but one i layed last night is Hashtag Val (Ffols Las 1.40) (there is a NR now). I appreciate the connections and this is reflected in the price but i suspect he will want a stiffer test than 16f on this course with good going. First foal from an unraced dam he has been fancied in a couple of French runs (one flat) but the form is questionable.

Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Stewart/Bestmate

Thanks. Of course it was a risky lay and much of the reasoning was based on my misguided interpretation of the form but in mitigation the handicapper wasn't impressed either. One thing is sure he will be raising him more than 2 lb on Tuesday.

I've been on a decent run and was due a losing day, that's racing.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 9:21 AM BST
Rhoscolyn

Need to get my eyes tested Wink
Report TheAnorak October 16, 2021 10:15 AM BST
One factor to be wary of today at Ascot is the going report. Here are the going stick numbers given for the round course today and at four recent meetings:

Today  :  6.4   good to soft, good in places

Oct 2nd   6.3   good to soft, soft in places

Oct 1st   6.1   good to soft, good in places

Sep 4th   6.8   good to firm

Sep 3rd   6.4   good, good to firm in places

All of which makes Kirkland Tellwrong at Haydock look sensible. My feeling is that it would be a mistake to assume that horses favouring soft ground will get their conditions today. The last time a similar going stick number and going report was given for Champions Day was in 2015, when it was 6.6 good to soft, soft in places for the round course. Fascinating Rock won the Champion Stakes that day in a time just 0.9s above standard.
Report Lucky Luciano October 16, 2021 11:02 AM BST
Morning Andrew,
You were due one yesterday and I noticed NNM was heavily backed just before the off probably due to it looking like it might get a uncontested lead like you said.
If the going figures Alan has kindly provided above are true surely Trueshan will be the lay as connections wont have the opportunity of seeing any earlier races, not beyond impossible could be a NR, although nothing to lose running
I should add it has just stated raining here but im about the wrong side of opposite of London, according to MW2 only about 3/4 mm due
Report Lucky Luciano October 16, 2021 11:12 AM BST
I should add re the going if the going figures turn out to be misleading
Report TheAnorak October 16, 2021 11:31 AM BST
More detail than anyone could really need here, but an interesting explanation of how the going stick is used to arrive at the reading:

https://www.ascot.co.uk/thegoing
Report TheAnorak October 16, 2021 12:09 PM BST
An update by Ascot at 11:48 after 2.5mm of rain - now good to soft, soft in places. The updated going map shows soft ground from the 10F start to about the 6F marker, then good to soft to the furlong pole, soft final furlong.
Report Lucky Luciano October 16, 2021 12:38 PM BST
Cheers for the update, will probably just watch the race, in all likelihood wont be able to get a bet on here anyway as site appears to have crashed
Report BESTMATE44 October 16, 2021 5:00 PM BST
Well done with Hashtag Val Andrew.
Report PHS October 16, 2021 5:47 PM BST
WD today Andrew. Mishriff the only disappointment but several lays coming off.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 6:52 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Alan/Lucky

Thank you for the Ascot going status posts.

I didn't see much of the ITV coverage as i was in the city centre, but it looked a very decent card, the best for some time in fact.

The hype bubble surrounding Snowfall has been well and truly burst in recent weeks, sods law she started regressing when i was in Paris for Arc trial day, but in hindsight maybe that's as good as she is, or ever was. Thankfully she hasn't carried my money since, once bitten etc.

By the way, i may be bringing my daughter to Sandown in December (Tingle Creek). She's a lucky mascot, i've only ever taken her to 2 race meetings before, Frankels QA and Golden Horns Eclipse whilst she was on vacation with me. Having said that i doubt Shishkin needs luck to win the race anyway.

Bestmate/PHS

Thank you. A profitable post this morning to make up for the suggested lay winning comprehensively yesterday and making me look a right idiot. All 3 lays were beaten this afternoon, with the win and place on Trueshan and Dubai Major respectively adding icing on the cake.

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 6:53 PM BST
I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 6:57 PM BST
Try again ......

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 7:11 PM BST
Last attempt to paste rest of the post.

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Macintoshmatty October 16, 2021 8:32 PM BST
No need to gloat AndrewLaugh
Report Macintoshmatty October 16, 2021 8:35 PM BST
layed it 3 times!!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 17, 2021 10:22 AM BST
Matty

LaughLaugh

I don't know what went wrong, i was simply trying to paste the last few pre-typed paragraphs (i generally use a blank email page) and at first i thought it was a forum issue. Never mind, it was only a summary of the morning post selections anyway so i gave up.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 17, 2021 2:37 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Having almost a racing free afternoon in the city, but i layed one earlier so i've found a coffee shop to watch it run on here. Goa Lil (Kempton 2.40) is the selection, currently 3.0 in the betting and has been supported this morning. Tends to jump to the right, up in class and probably needs further to show his best. 5 lb higher than his last chase win. Likes to front run but will be taken on by Mercian Prince that could also impact his jumping.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report jumper3 October 17, 2021 2:47 PM BST
Andrew, that would have made you want to spill your coffee. Well done, again.
Report ashleigh October 17, 2021 2:47 PM BST
well done andrew, beaten on the bob.
Report Eborman October 17, 2021 2:48 PM BST
Caught this just in time - Thank you A.I.SHappy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 17, 2021 2:52 PM BST
Thanks Guys

Jumper3 Laugh

Thanks. To be fair he jumped well today, but take nothing away from the winner who stayed on well (as did the other). My only bet so considering i won on a head bob i should leave it that way.
Report Macintoshmatty October 17, 2021 2:54 PM BST
well done Andrew
Report TheAnorak October 18, 2021 8:01 AM BST
Morning All,

A repeat of the circumstances noted on Sep 23rd, a Tim Easterby favourite in a 2yo novice stakes at Pontefract today. Manila Scouse in the 1:15 has a better form chance than the last one, but the stats are still much the same, with Easterby now 3/96 in 2yo novice races this year and 1/47 in 2yo maidens. In addition the stable is 0/18 in all 2yo races this month.

Manila Scouse ran 5F at Chester last time, a rather different test today running 6F up the North Face of Pontefract. And on soft ground, if the jockeys make their usual move to the stands side rail, the draw in stall 4 won't help the favourite either.

An interesting opponent is an import from France (still same owner), Barney's Gift, who has a handicap rating equivalent to 81 UK based on his four runs in France. He's beaten several subsequent winners in those races and this is definitely a drop in class compared to those runs.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 18, 2021 9:47 AM BST
Morning Alan,

Many thanks.

Funny you should mention it, when i was flipping through the cards over breakfast i noticed it and remembered your previous comment about Tim Easterby's 2 year old record although i never had any intention to post it. I will have a small lay on it.

Good luck.
Report Lucky Luciano October 18, 2021 10:01 AM BST
Morning all
WD with Goa Lil yesterday Andrew the last jump made all the difference again.

Off to Plumpton today, been years since I last went, but not too far from me about an hour by car.
Gary Moore has a few shorties today but I’ve opposed  the first one and backed midnight legacy last night so at least I’ve got the price.
I will probably have a small bet on Salamanca school in the second going over fences for the first time can hopefully give us a run and think  Sergeant can go in again, won very easily last time but another short price.

Have a good day
Report GLASGOWCALLING October 18, 2021 10:14 AM BST
Forecast heavy rain at plumpton this afternoon, would make me wary of backing Sargeant if the rain does get into the ground as his previous form on softer than good is not great. Good luck All. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 18, 2021 10:19 AM BST
Morning Lucky

Thanks. His jumping had been suspect before, but not yesterday, he hardly put a foot wrong. Thankfully the winner had enough in hand at the end although the final fence was on my side.

There's a guy on here offering free tickets to Plumpton, did you see the post ?

I had a lay post in mind for Wolverhampton earlier and have got half the stake matched already, but i think everyone is trying to lay it. Hopefully i can still post it later.

Good luck this afternoon.
Report GLASGOWCALLING October 18, 2021 10:22 AM BST
I think your matchmaking may have worked Andrew Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 18, 2021 10:34 AM BST
Glasgow

Laugh

I think he had already seen it when i posted.

I could have been interested (never been to Plumpton) but a bit too far for me to travel Wink
Report GLASGOWCALLING October 18, 2021 10:39 AM BST
I wouldnt go as the only times i have been it has always rained ( Fontwell the same ) !!
Report Lucky Luciano October 18, 2021 10:51 AM BST
Andrew, Glasgow
Thanks guys I saw there were spares going after I posted on here
Rain wasn’t due till later this afternoon looks a lot worse now that last night so will bear that in mind re Sergeant,
Funny enough last time I went to plumpton got stuck the car park which was a field (guess still is )and had to get a fellla who was working there in a white coat to give us a shove, his coat wasn’t white afterwards Grin
Report Eborman October 18, 2021 1:19 PM BST
Thank you Anorak!
Report hologon October 18, 2021 1:31 PM BST
Anorak thank ypu
Report Macintoshmatty October 18, 2021 1:36 PM BST
To be honest think there are any number of fav lays at Wolves today

500 Sands Fury, although Stefano on it and Butler can get them ready

630 Dakota Power, I don't like Kempton form at Wolves and although it closed from the back last time I wouldn't say it was impressive, much rather have Pure charmer or better still Two Door Saloon

800 zoom tiger, Baldings horses off the boil, had a wind op but still not seeing out its races imo

830 Aradena, might win as the opposition is poor but this one might be a bridle ponce, cruises into races but not sure it puts it in

The dangerous lay would be Liangel Hope in the 600pm, you'd only have Hot Spell as a saver, which it might well be

Sorry to clutter up your post, can't wait for the result!
Report Macintoshmatty October 18, 2021 1:38 PM BST
And whilst typing that I missed Anoraks advice!!

well done Anorak
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 18, 2021 1:59 PM BST
Alan

Only just seen the result, WD, it's always nice getting a shortie beat. Mind you i'm meeting my daughter tomorrow evening so it will get spent quickly.

Matty

The lay i mentioned at 09.09 is also at Wolverhampton (now fully matched) but has drifted outside my 5/2 limit so i'm hoping it gets backed a little.

No worries posting, it's not clutter by any means.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 18, 2021 6:44 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

The lay i've mentioned a couple of times today is Senhu, 08.30 Wolverhampton.

A couple of 3rd places over 8f and 12f respectively showed promise, but dissect the form and every horse to run since has been beaten, in fact the last race form is dire. Admittedly the winner of his debut race is rated 84, but he's not really progressing.

Back down in trip (by almost 3.5f) from his last run that was back in February. The extended 8f start is close to the first bend and he's drawn in 5, not such a negative, but he may have to come wide unless the jockey decides to front run.

Probably a 4 horse race but that still leaves the layers with 3 running for them in an open race.

I was matched at 2.90 and chased the odds up to 3.60 (average 3.25) to get the full stake of 50 on, but unfortunately it's drifted way beyond my 5/2 limit to post for the P/L. I thought he was a good lay at under 3.0 but i wouldn't be tempted at the current 4.90. Maybe it will come back in the betting, but i have my doubts.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 18, 2021 6:45 PM BST
8.00 Wolverhampton obviously
Report Macintoshmatty October 18, 2021 8:04 PM BST
well done Andrew

I'm looking for my coat!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 18, 2021 8:10 PM BST
Thanks Matty, but i think you mean your Mac Wink

Wish they all ran like that

Horse Racing > Wolverhampton 18th Oct : 1m Nov Stks
Showing 1 - 1 of 1 selections
Selection
Odds    Stake (£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/Loss (£)
Shenu
*3.25    50.00    Lay   
18-Oct-21 10:07
50.00
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    50.00
Market subtotal:    50.00
Commission @ 2%:    1.00
Net Market Total:    49.00
Report gazza66 October 18, 2021 8:57 PM BST
Well done AIS and TheAnorak as always. Much appreciated. Matty thanks for your thoughts although I will say politely that for now I will keep a watching brief.
Report Macintoshmatty October 18, 2021 11:40 PM BST
sorry Gazza, to be honest that's the worst meeting I've had at Wolves for a very long time, more or less everything went wrong
I've got my mac and an umbrella on as we speak

As Van the Man says 'There'll be days like these'
Report TheAnorak October 19, 2021 4:51 PM BST
French 2yo colt Welwal, beaten by Raclette last time, is declared to run over 1500m at Deauville on Friday, in the Prix Arazi. Probably a bit of wishful thinking if the choice of race was based on that title!

Seven runners on the AW track and it's an early start - if I've got the time difference right, the race will be at 11:20 am BST.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 19, 2021 5:41 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Only a quickie (where have i heard that before) but there is a shortie running at Kempton (19.00) that i feel could be layed, albeit risky enough.

Antiphon (currently 2.18) ran well enough on his only run over 5f at Newmarket to finish 3rd. A couple of runners behind him are group class now so where are the negatives you may well ask, so here goes.

Can he replicate the run after 6 months off the track, has he improved to the same level as those that finished behind him, a first run on Polytrack, up in trip and the Andrew Balding stable is not exactly firing as several weeks back when he looked on course to be winning the trainers championship.

A small field and layers probably only have a couple (3 at a push) running for them but Whoputfiftyinyou will not be a push over. His form doesn't compare with the favourite but he overcame a troubled start/run and will obviously improve. He was quietly fancied in the betting and won well in the end.

Of course Antiphon could simply be too good and bolt-up but that's why he's 10/11f. I certainly wouldn't want to lay him at anything close to 3.0, nor would i post it as a P/L lay but i feel he's not the good thing it may appear on paper.

Good luck and have a nice evening all. I'm off for dinner with my daughter shortly so that means an 'eat all you can' Asian buffet in the city centre. I layed at 2.16 earlier to pay for it but i will wait until i get home to look at the result.

Gazza/Mac

Thanks for the posts.

Alan

Thanks for the Welwal entry, i looked to see if he was running in the listed race today (i thought he was entered ?)

I think the Prix Arazi is Thursday (21st). 6 of the 7 runners have won so no gimme, not that it ever was. The 2 that finished behind him (3rd and 4th) LTO haven't exactly advertised the form although they were Black type races.
Report Lampus October 19, 2021 7:02 PM BST
Well  Done ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report PHS October 19, 2021 7:08 PM BST
VWD AndrewCool

I left 1.96 up, not matched. Bit disappointing considering an SP of 10/11 (1.909).
Report happysandwich October 19, 2021 7:12 PM BST
Well done Andrew.

Tell her Betfair has put steam on your table again.Laugh
Report starkeycars October 19, 2021 7:22 PM BST
Wd Andrew nice short one well beaten Happy
Report TheAnorak October 19, 2021 7:50 PM BST
Quite right Andrew, it is Thursday for Welwal. Got back from three days away just before I posted and I must have crossed a previously undiscovered International Date Line between Yorkshire and Wiltshire!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 20, 2021 10:29 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the comments after my suggested lay Antiphon finished 3rd at Kempton last night (10/11f). As intimated, i didn’t see the race (or result) until i arrived home and watched the VR. Always up with the pace (generally in 2nd) and although making a challenge before the furlong pole never really looked like getting up and faded close home.

Lack of a race for 6 months maybe played a part (part of the reasoning) but i wouldn’t be interested in backing him next time out. As envisaged beforehand the race only really concerned 3, but the winner did it well after taking a while to get going.

Whilst the winnings paid for our meal, on the other side of the coin, i received a letter from the German tax authority fining me 30 euros for a minor misdemeanour, talk about the Lord giveth etc Laugh. To add more woe Bristol City (my team) blew a 1-0 lead conceding 2 goals in the 91st and 92nd minutes. Never mind, an odds-on shortie beaten, a quality evening with my daughter and food she loves.

Flipping through this afternoon cards earlier, nothing really jumped off the page, but there is a runner i noticed at Deauville this morning (11.20) in Timour who looks short enough at 13/8 (industry odds). I actually saw this one run in the Prix Neil on Arc trials day, very one paced. I appreciate he’s down in class but didn’t look anything out of the ordinary previously and was beaten fair and square in a similar race on his penultimate run.

I thought Pont Mirabeau was a tentative win selection, but i wouldn’t back any of them. Mind you liquidity is so low on here for these races, i doubt much will be up before 11.15.

Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Alan

Laugh

I always thought the River Tamer (Cornwall) was the international date line.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 20, 2021 11:30 AM BST
Happy

3rd 11/8f
Report PHS October 20, 2021 2:40 PM BST
WD AndrewCool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 20, 2021 4:44 PM BST
River Tamar

Better correct it before Lampus jumps on it Wink

Thanks PHS. I got 24 matched at 2.42, that was it.
Report gazza66 October 20, 2021 9:01 PM BST
I see Welwal is available at 2.18 on Betfair it anyone is interested in having a bet
Report Lucky Luciano October 21, 2021 11:51 AM BST
Afternoon Andrew,

One running tonight you have previously layed called Upton Park 7.0 Wolverhampton trained by Andrew Balding.
Second time out 2yo is normally when you need to take a closer look at his runners but just seen a stat that in October they have a poor record  7 winners from 107 runners, he is not in the best of form either and your lay Antiphon was beaten at odds on on Tuesday.
Just seen welwall won earlier hope you were on
Report STATSMAN October 21, 2021 11:57 AM BST
Andrew Balding - 4/8 yesterday and at the prices, they were very good
Report Lucky Luciano October 21, 2021 11:57 AM BST
Ignore the recent form bit he had 4 winners yesterday, I should have looked Crazy
Report STATSMAN October 21, 2021 11:57 AM BST
sorry, 4/9 yesterday
Report Lucky Luciano October 21, 2021 11:59 AM BST
Missed yesterday’s racing that’s my excuse but thanks anyway statsman
Report ashleigh October 21, 2021 12:02 PM BST
welwal won,sp 5/6.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 21, 2021 12:57 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Thank you for the posts (and the reminder Gazza66).

Unfortunately i didn't get matched on Welwal (left a bet during breakfast) and the NR didn't help, but at 5/6f it's no big deal. I didn't the race but i will watch a VR at home. A financial gain would have been nice (albeit small) but i'm happy enough with my opinion when i first saw him is reinforced a little.

It's difficult to know what he beat and i'm not an expert on French 2 year old form by any means (Alan will have a better idea) but it certainly franks Andre Fabre's Raclette who beat him 4L LTO. The trainer has already stated she could be his best ever filly and although such statements should generally be treated with a pinch of Salt, i would take more notice of Andre than AOB.

Lucky i haven't had a lot of free time to review the RP although i took a brief look at Upton Park's race. Not sure i would lay it again, he was running on late LTO and is up in trip. I will find some Andrew/Coffee time later.

Good luck and have a nice afternoon all.
Report TheAnorak October 21, 2021 1:14 PM BST
The race today was useless as a form guide, as Welwal was allowed a soft lead at a funeral pace until they sprinted the last 400m. It'll be interesting to look at the sectional times when they're available, but even just from watching, I'd bet on 23 secs for the last 400m.
Report stewarts rise October 21, 2021 2:53 PM BST
Hope you don't mind me coming onto your lay thread again, just think that Stratum might be worth laying at Thurles in 3 30, conditions of race suit him making him best in at the weights but hasn't won over hurdles for 2 1/2 years and his last few races have been very underwhelming, last but one in the Cadran, last of 4 at York behind Stradivarious and his usual 7th 10 lengths behind stablemate at Galway.
Mullins isn't in best of form either just 2 wins over hurdles in October and generally doesn't appear to be firing overall. If Stratum was expected on these terms wouldn't he be around Evens rather than 6/4 and drifting. Henry Bromhead is hardly firing at the moment either but has very good form, I prefer Elliotts runner Commander Of Fleet who came back to form lto and has excellent back form, young jockey has 1st ride for Elliott but rides well and will want to impress, hopefully horse is fit enough after a break to take advantage.
Report stewarts rise October 21, 2021 3:37 PM BST
Ignore my posts on your thread Andrew, must be the worst person on here with my lays, won easily!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 21, 2021 5:11 PM BST
Alan

Thanks for the post.

Stewart

No worries, i get them wrong as well and don't have issues with anyone posting (within reason of course Wink).

Here is a link to the Welwal race for those that wish to see it

https://www.equidia.fr/courses/2021-10-21/R3/C2
Report happysandwich October 21, 2021 6:10 PM BST
Stewarts,

Keep them coming– Andrew reckons they make him look good.


LaughLaugh
Report TheAnorak October 21, 2021 7:02 PM BST
For some reason, there are no sectional times on the France-Galop site for the first two races at Deauville today. But the final time for Welwal is certainly very slow compared to other races on the Polytrack this afternoon.

Still no entries for Raclette and I can't think of anything she could run in now, so we probably won't see her again before April.
Report Lucky Luciano October 22, 2021 8:10 AM BST
Happysandwich

“Keep them coming– Andrew reckons they make him look good.”

I’m doing my bit as well although pleased to say I didn’t lay Upton Park
Report happysandwich October 22, 2021 8:33 AM BST
^
Every little helps.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 22, 2021 10:47 AM BST
Good ‘drizzly’ morning Guys,

Off to my adopted homeland in Linköping this afternoon for a few days R&R (except for washing my apartment windows). Back on Monday afternoon and looking forward to the break with a few hours of ITV racing tomorrow. Last group 1 race of the season (Futurity at Doncaster) and a couple of group 3’s at Newbury completes the set. Luxembourg may win the big one although stable form is a concern but more on this race tomorrow.

On to this afternoon, i thought the likely favourite Third Time Lucki (Cheltenham 2.30) was short enough at 7/4 for his chase debut in a decent little race. I appreciate he’s run well fresh in the past, a bumper and a hurdle at odds of 1/6, but this field is far superior. May prefer some juice in the ground as well. I expect the Paul Nicholls trained Fidelio Vallis to make all, but i have layed the other.

Good luck and have a nice Friday afternoon all.

Alan

Welwal set a slow pace as you mentioned yesterday and although he always holding the field in the final furlong, i very much doubt he will be group winning class next year, but it’s early days. I may keep an eye on him, but a much bigger one on Raclette who has surely been put away for the winter. Maybe we will see her at Newmarket on May 1st 2022.

Good luck with Love Dreams at Newbury this afternoon, it looks a tough race but he has run well enough there before.

Happysandwich

Stewarts

Keep them coming – Andrew reckons they make him look good.


No, you’re getting confused with Glentoby ;-)

Lucky

Upton Park was too risky to lay, he was staying on strongly LTO and up in trip as i mentioned. WD on the swerve.
Report TheAnorak October 22, 2021 11:17 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

Thanks for the comment re Love Dreams. I reckon he'll need more than luck to pick up prize money in this big field - like trying to finish first in the Charge Of The Light Brigade. But outsiders do win sometimes!

As for the 2:30 at Cheltenham, interesting trends in that race. It's been run 11 times and 8 winners have carried a penalty. The three that didn't had all won a Cheltenham handicap hurdle, so at least had good course form. It does point to Fidelio Valis, who jumped straighter at Chepstow for Cobden than he had done previously, although he had a couple of hairy moments when getting too close to fences there which might cause more of a problem round Cheltenham. I do think there's a doubt about him getting up the hill though - might need to be 6L ahead jumping the last as he's not looked a strong finisher.

And looking at the Futurity, O'Brien has had just two 2yo winners over here from 17 runners this year - Tenebrism of course and the only winning colt was in the Chesham at Royal Ascot.
Report stewarts rise October 22, 2021 1:12 PM BST
Thanks fellas for the encouragementGrin, the problem with me is that I'm not a natural layer, much prefer looking for a horse that could win rather than looking for a horse that could lose.
Stick to what your best at has to be the lesson, cheers.
Report gazza66 October 23, 2021 11:07 AM BST
TheAnoark I thought Love Dreams ran quite well. At the two furlong marker it looked as likely a winner as any. Just missed out on my bet as I backed it to be placed in the first six, only for small stakes however.
Report TheAnorak October 23, 2021 11:29 AM BST
Yes, he ran pretty much his usual race, takes a while to get into top gear when pressure is applied, then keeps going to the line. Over 7F he always looks as if he needs a mile - over a mile ..... etc. Back to Kempton next, where at least there won't be any 18 runner races.

I asked David Probert about Imperial Fighter that he rides in the big race today - and as I'd suspected, he felt the win at Goodwood on soft was despite the ground and that he's better on good ground. Hopeful for today, but no more than that.
Report happysandwich October 23, 2021 2:40 PM BST
Miss Carol Ann - 2.35 Newebury - 10 pts win

Good luck Guys

Miss Carol Ann – 3:10 Newbury - 10 pts win

I thought the German cataract operation was too good to be true. Laugh
Report happysandwich October 23, 2021 2:51 PM BST
^^
That's Andrews tip for the Lucky Pins.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 24, 2021 10:36 AM BST
Good morning Guys and greetings from the loveliest city in Sweden, Linköping.

Probably a biased opinion. Wink

So much for my suggested lay of Third Time Lucki at Cheltenham on Friday, well backed, travelled well, jumped like Sprinter Sacre, had the race won from several fences out and looks a real Arkle candidate. I thought Mr Drogo would be the stable novice star, but it appears there could be a couple, we shall see. Talk about getting a horse wrong, but in mitigation i was excited about going home to Sweden if that helps. Laugh

Met with friends most of yesterday so only 2 horse bets (first one a loser) but the previous losses were returned by Luxembourg winning the Futurity. I actually called the horse Leopardstown on my WhatsApp Newmarket group chat so maybe Happysandwich makes a valid point about eye surgery in Germany after getting time of a competition race wrong.

I thought Luxembourg was more workmanlike than impressive, but he did it well enough and will be better next year (still Green) although i feel he's more a Derby horse than the Guinneas.

On to this afternoon, i haven't reviewed all the cards, but i knew it was the Prix Royal Oak at Longchamp and already had it in my mind to have a fun EW bet on Quickthorn at decent odds. I think this stayers trip may suit him better than 12f even though he's won over the latter and the going shouldn't be an issue. Whether he's good enough to win we will see soon enough, but Oisin on board and at 13.5/3.6 3TBP he could be worth a small stake.

Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report Lampus October 24, 2021 11:01 AM BST
Thank you ANDREW   have a nice day  Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 24, 2021 11:02 AM BST
Thanks Lampus Happy

My Drogo
Report PHS October 24, 2021 11:41 AM BST
Guineas
Report GLASGOWCALLING October 24, 2021 11:43 AM BST
GUINNESS. Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 24, 2021 12:31 PM BST
LaughLaugh

PHS/Glasgow

As good at typing as i am at tipping
Report happysandwich October 25, 2021 2:48 PM BST
A couple of quotes of TheAnorak’s

1. And perhaps the killer in terms of would you want to back or lay at that price - Tim Easterby in 2021, is 3/83 in 2-y-old novice races and 1/46 in 2-y-old maidens. As ever, a yard more interested in handicaps.

2. A repeat of the circumstances noted on Sep 23rd, a Tim Easterby favourite in a 2yo novice stakes at Pontefract today. Manila Scouse in the 1:15 has a better form chance than the last one, but the stats are still much the same, with Easterby now 3/96 in 2yo novice races this year and 1/47 in 2yo maidens. In addition the stable is 0/18 in all 2yo races this month.

And so the trend continues :-

    Laying Tim Easterby 2yr olds                                                           
    to win £10                        Result        Odds        BFSP        Lost        Won   
    Date                                                           
    Monday Oct 18th        Pontefract 1:15        Manila Scouse        2nd        Evens        2.19                £10.00   
    Saturday Oct 23rd        Newbury 1:25        Matty Too        4th        4/1        5.69                £10.00   
    Saturday Oct 23rd        Doncaster 1:30        The Dunkirk Lads        3rd        9/4        3.52                £10.00   
    Monday Oct 25th        Redcar 1:00        Red Astaire        9th        15/2        11.50                £10.00   
    Monday Oct 25th        Redcar 1:00        Brazen Fox        10th        80/1        170.00                £10.00   
    Monday Oct 25th        Redcar 1:30        Angels Tale        6th        7/1        9.82                £10.00   
    Monday Oct 25th        Redcar 1:30        Madeira Wine        17th        33/1        70.00                £10.00   
    Monday Oct 25th        Leicester 1:40        Greta Bridge        8th        9/1        12.50                £10.00   
    Monday Oct 25th        Newcastle 6:30        May Punch                                           
    Tuesday Oct 26th        Catterick 1.00        Manila Scouse                                           
    Wednesday Oct 27th        Nottingham 2.15        Count D'arsay                                           
                                                               
                                                               
                                                    £0.00        £80.00   
Report tanglefoot October 25, 2021 5:02 PM BST
Happy,u letting the cat out of the bag. Laugh
Report happysandwich October 25, 2021 5:11 PM BST
^
tanglefoot,
Mum's the word.Laugh
Report mrcombustible October 25, 2021 6:11 PM BST
May Punch is not a qualifier, it is a nursery.
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