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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 07:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,294 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
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Report happysandwich October 1, 2021 2:46 PM BST
Andrew,

I can pick you up from Stanstead if that's any help.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 1, 2021 3:35 PM BST
Lucky

Thanks (Kingofthemidlands) 4th @ 2/1f, a good start to the day, i didn't fancy her at all

As for Raclette, it's difficult to know how her form stacks up, but she was certainly impressive LTO and Andre Fabre has a good record at Newmarket.

Happysandwich

Many thanks for the kind offer, but i will be in London. Taking the train up to Newmarket (maybe on the same one as Lucky) then the shuttle bus.
Report TheAnorak October 1, 2021 3:39 PM BST
Petrol situation may prevent me being at Newmarket - I checked on the possibility of using the train, but the quoted fare suggested I was expected to buy the entire carriage, rather than just one seat. The first 'cheap' option out of Swindon arrives at Newmarket just after the second race.

Atheeb seemed to me not to like being on the inside rail in a big field, surrounded by bigger horses than him (they're almost all bigger than him!). His win just before the sale being in a small field at Newmarket, so no crowding, no bends in the final mile etc, now looks significant. Other than that, sitting in rear off a very slow pace left him with far too much to do when the sprint for home started.
Report Lucky Luciano October 1, 2021 4:01 PM BST
Andrew,
PM sent in case you hadn't seen it
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2021 10:11 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Quite a short summary today as i’m in the office for a few hours (one eye on ITV4). I should be in Paris if my initial plans had come to fruition but as i went for the Arc trials recently and i’m off to UK Thursday, combined with current workload i decided to skip it. C’est la vie.

Quality cards in abundance this afternoon with group class at Ascot, Newmarket, Longchamp, Gowran and even Redcar with a couple of listed races.

Starting at Longchamp the Prix Du Cadran (2.15) looks a good race where UK/Irish trainers have a reasonably good record and are responsible for first 3 in the betting. It appears to be a decent field and there may even be a turn up, in fact the one i tentatively fancy at an EW price is the 4 year old improving filly Bubble Smart although she has to improve again to win. Trip shouldn’t be an issue and the envisaged soft going certainly won’t be. Odds of 26/5.1 on here look tempting for a small stake. I have already layed Stradivarius (4.1) due to the going and i feel he’s not the horse he once was, although still decent of course.

At Ascot i think Quickthorn can win the Cumberland stakes (2.40) this one is another improver, in fact he hasn’t run to a mark lower than his preceding race. Made his handicap debut off 82 last year, started this season on 84 and is currently rated 110. I layed the likely favourite Hukum earlier as he’s carrying a penalty and in my opinion is better over further.

Finally Marracudja (Fontwell 5.40) is my preferred lay of the afternoon and at shorter odds than the couple above. He needs to brush up his jumping, appears to be regressing, carrying top weight and i’m not sure a sharp Fontwell will be to his liking. Odds of 2.68 are too short.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Alan

Hopefully you can make Newmarket next Friday, it would be good to say HI at least, but i'm aware of the fuel issues in UK.

Lucky

No PM received, did you send it to my previous Andrew in Sweden profile ID ? I had to add dots in the spaces when BF closed that account.

Happysandwich

Many thanks for the email, i will respond later, but your offer of a lift to Newmarket is welcoming.
Report Lampus October 2, 2021 10:19 AM BST
Good  Luck   ANDREW  of  CORNWALL  Happy
Report TheAnorak October 2, 2021 10:39 AM BST
Raclette has been entered for the 7F Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket next Friday. She wasn't originally entered for the Fillies Mile and it would require a supplementary entry at a cost of £32,000 to put her in that.
Report PHS October 2, 2021 2:30 PM BST
Starting at Longchamp the Prix Du Cadran (2.15) looks a good race where UK/Irish trainers have a reasonably good record and are responsible for first 3 in the betting. It appears to be a decent field and there may even be a turn up, in fact the one i tentatively fancy at an EW price is the 4 year old improving filly Bubble Smart although she has to improve again to win. Trip shouldn’t be an issue and the envisaged soft going certainly won’t be. Odds of 26/5.1 on here look tempting for a small stake. I have already layed Stradivarius (4.1) due to the going and i feel he’s not the horse he once was, although still decent of course.

WD with the lay and EW selection. I got 25/1 on Bubble, only 1/5th odds but 4 places. Thanks.
Report Macintoshmatty October 2, 2021 2:34 PM BST
well done AGAIN Andrew
Report 11kv October 2, 2021 2:50 PM BST
Hukum very impressive loved the soft..
Report tanglefoot October 2, 2021 2:50 PM BST
Bad luck with horse lay of Hukum Blush
Report tanglefoot October 2, 2021 2:51 PM BST
Must say when I saw Hukum in the ring,he looked stripped.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2021 4:02 PM BST
Lampus/Matty/PHS

Thank you and WD with the bet (PHS).

I got matched at 6.0 (3TBP) on Bubble Smart (3rd) and with the lay of Stradivarius made it a profitable race. Not so with my next lay of Hukum who skated up and couldn't have won any easier. Sometimes racing makes fools of us and this was such a day in my case (at least on this race).

Unfortunately there are 2 significant NR's in my next lay race (Marracudja 5.40 Fontwell) taking out 33.6% RF. Although the liability is obviously reduced, i prefer the runners, but hopefully my reasoning is valid even with the smaller field.

Alan

I'm looking forward to seeing the filly Raclette run on Friday but whether i back her is a different story, i will decide the night before. Andre doesn't send poor ones to Newmarket, she has been impressive in her 2 runs and the form appears to stand up. With Inspiral in the field she won't be too short.
Report TheAnorak October 2, 2021 5:26 PM BST
Andrew,

Raclette and Inspiral are in different races, the former over 7F, the latter over 1M.

Good luck with the Marracudja lay - with only three left in now, I'm convinced it's a race that none of them can win!
Report tanglefoot October 2, 2021 6:03 PM BST
26 L
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2021 7:59 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

A day i wish i had stayed at the office and not posted anything. It started well enough, but when from bad to worse.

Marracudja won hard held but was aided significantly by his only 2 rivals failing to show anything. Even when he was headed on the bend i thought he was going better than the leader who didn't stay in front long anyway.

The field was reduced by 2 NR's after i posted and in hindsight maybe i should have waited. 

Alan

Many thanks, i blame Lucky ref his 13.45 post yesterday, but he's forgiven.

Have a nice evening all.
Report stewarty b October 2, 2021 8:07 PM BST
Andrew, I may send you a PM midweek if you don't mind.
Report PHS October 2, 2021 8:37 PM BST
Andrew,
Thanks for posting about the 2 nr's at 16:02 (BF time). I greened up soon after but may not have noticed the nr's if you hadn't posted.
Report Lucky Luciano October 2, 2021 10:43 PM BST
Hi Andrew,
PM sent take two
"i blame Lucky ref his 13.45 post yesterday, but he's forgiven"
I blame the fella off ATR Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 3, 2021 8:46 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

PHS

WD, i should have done the same, i always prefer the runners than reduced liability but i rarely trade. I wouldn't have posted knowing the depleted field, but never mind, i've had a good run recently so a losing day was due.

Lucky

PM received and responded to earlier, many thanks.

Stewart

No problems with a PM, albeit with a proviso. If it's anything to do with your proposed new forum/tipping site, with all due respect, count me out as i don't have the time or inclination for such a project (i've stated this on here before). If you want to know how to set up a web-site maybe i can be of use.

Please do not take this as a pop at you, it's not intended as such in any way whatsoever and good luck with the venture (sincerely). Why not simply set up a WhatsApp group (simple) and you decide who is invited.

More later after breakfast.
Report isleham October 3, 2021 8:50 AM BST
Anyone have any idea of the amount of precipitation in Paris overnight ??
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 3, 2021 9:09 AM BST
Isleham,

No idea of overnight, but 7.6 mm is expected prior to 13.00 local time according to myweather2
Report TheAnorak October 3, 2021 10:04 AM BST
It looks as if Raclette is going to run today in the opener, but not at a price that is tempting. One additional fact about her last run that I noticed when checking the form yesterday evening - she was the only runner at the meeting to cover each of the last two furlongs in under 12 seconds. And that included the older fillies running over just one furlong further in a Listed race.

Given the way races are so often run in France, that ability to sustain a finishing burst over the final 400 metres is a powerful weapon for any horse racing there. If you want to look at sectional times for French races, go to the result page on the France Galop website, that looks like this:

https://www.france-galop.com/fr/course/detail/2021/P/QlZuZmlIQXlvbGNKZVYvT2FIQ1MzUT09

Then click on 'Rapport de Tracking', which will load a PDF.
Report happysandwich October 3, 2021 10:39 AM BST
^
For those that don’t parle français click on ”en“ top left hand corner.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 3, 2021 10:59 AM BST
Good beautiful morning Guys,

A high of 24c expected in München this afternoon, although dropping to 13c tomorrow

Not a bad days racing in UK/Ireland (3 graded races at Tipperary) but pride of place is obviously at Longchamp with 7 G1's (if you include the pure bred Arab race) and my favourite weekend. I will keep this post restricted to a few of my thoughts at the meeting.

I think most would agree the Arc is a bit of a quandry this year with questions surrouding many of the main protaganists and it's probably a race to watch to be honest although most of us will have a bet simply because it is the Arc (3.05).

If Adayar had not had the setback and won the Prix Neil (as i expected) he would be 6/4 this afternoon and the probable winner, at least in my eyes.

Snowall was disappointing in the Prix Vermeille, although Frankie surely has to take some of the blame (too far back) and she could rebound knowing how much of an advantage the WFA/fillies allowance is in the race.

I was prepared to lay Hurricane Lane a week or so ago before he drifted, not based on form, but simply that i thought he may be withdrawn. He's much shorter in the betting now, in fact verging on favourtism and although Leger winners don't have a good record in the race he's probably different class to many of them and has a good draw. Irrespective of this, i think William has chosen his ride correctly.

The draw 'positive' also applies to Tarnawa, but i will actually be a layer because of it, can she get a run.

Looking at the high priced outsiders, readers know i'm not a fan of the AOB trained Broome, but don't be surprised if he runs into a place or even wins (God forbid) there are worse 60/1 chances running. I suspect he will take them along from the start.

A lot of fence sitting without getting to the point, but if i do play in the race, it will be a win on Adayar and lay on Tarnawa.

The Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (1.50) looks a decent field and i layed the likely favourite Ebro River last night and again this morning (odds ranging between 3.4 and 4.0). He's been on the go since April (8 races) has better form over 6f (7f this afternoon) and although winning on soft i doubt with as much juice in the ground as there could be this afternoon. Ancient Rome is the one to beat, but it's more open than the betting may suggest.

One horse i had been planning to back (small) for the Prix de l'Opera (3.50) is Sibila Spain and i was surprised to see she had been matched at 9.6. I backed her in her last couple of runs and in the penultimate race at Chantilly (G1) she skipped clear in the straight only to be caught close home but showed a good resolution to rally, not beaten far in 4th. Won LTO on the course (albiet in listed class) and although a significant step back up to a G1 could run well.

In the Prix L'Abbaye 4.25) my tentative EW selection (small stake) is Romantic Proposal who travels outside of Ireland for the first time. She's going to wonder what's going on, 9 of her last 10 races have been at The Curragh. Assuming this is not such a daunting trip could give backers a good run, she's improved since sent sprinting, will handle the going and be stayng on strongly in the conditions. Almost drawn next to the Eiffel tower booking office, but given her style of running it may not be an issue. Has to improve again to win but in-form sprinters often do and it may be her time of the year (3 of her 5 wins have come in September/October).

Several selections (some tentative) but if the 2 lays here run as i expect and another closer to home (posting later) i should end with profit as the backs will only be small stakes. If all the lays win i will simply say my forum account was hacked.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

More later.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 3, 2021 11:03 AM BST
Morning Alan,

Raclette withdrawn, but thank you for the sectional information.
Report Lampus October 3, 2021 12:05 PM BST
Good  Luck ANDREW Happy
And Thank You
Report Lucky Luciano October 3, 2021 1:35 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew,
Just switched the racing on and looks like the weather isnt too bad, would be there under different circumstancesSad 
Thanks for the write up
GL today
Report Lampus October 3, 2021 2:02 PM BST
Ebro  River  Well  Done   ANDREW HappyHappy
Report stewarty b October 3, 2021 7:38 PM BST
Andrew, with all due respect I have never/will be involved with a tipping site. That rumour was started by scoundrels on here. I have no interest in a website, only a forum financed by myself to discuss racing because as you know this place 'aint what it used to be.
Report stewarty b October 3, 2021 7:45 PM BST
As you said....

Setting up an invitation group to discuss racing electronically is a piece of cake (takes about a minute) no techy man necessary and zero set up costs. Orgnaniser decides who joins and can delete a name at any time.

Come on Stewart




Any advice would be welcome Andrew, whether it's on here or by PM. Thanks in advance. (unless you are talking about a thread like your own)
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 4, 2021 8:43 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

A mixed Longchamp post yesterday although both suggested lays (Ebro River and Tarnawa) were beaten after drifting in the betting, the first named in particular. Considering he finished 8th of 9 and was the first one beaten, maybe someone knew.

As for the tentative backs (Adayar, Sibila Spain and Romantic Proposal) no excuses although the latter was slowly away in a 5f sprint and beaten from then on. This run can be forgotten.

The Arc winner was trained in Germany but did i have a fun bet on it, not a cent, even though i've actually mentioned him before on this thread. I knew it was running, but like many didn't think he had a winning chance, even allowing for his form with Alpinista and Walton Street. It wasn't a fluke win by any means but the stamina sapping going and maybe the leaders going too soon in the straight was in his favour.

Two runners to take from the meeting in my opinion, the first, Ancient Rome (Grand Criterium) who finished very strongly and running over a shorter trip than his 3 previous wins. Another 100 yards and he would have won. The next, Charlie Appleby's Space Blues who won the Foret with any amount in hand, the going certainly didn't stop this one.

On to my Newmarket trip on Friday (UK Thursday evneing) it appears Boris and his crew of governingloonies have decreed that i have to take a PCR covid test on day 2 after arrival. I can't see anywhere that doesn't charge under £50, yet i can get it free in Germany ! Rant over. Laugh

Have a nice Monday evening all.

Alan

Maybe Andre decided Newmarket was a better option to give Raclette course experience for a possible classic bid next season (assuming she runs of course).

Stewart

I have no interest in a website, only a forum

Unless you plan to create a smart phone forum using an App, you will need a website.

You need to register a domain (Stewarts Stable.org, .net or .com for example) and determine the yearly period you want (and pay for) that is renewable. You will also need a web hosting provider (again at cost).

It's not so difficult to set up (my brother in NZ has one) but you have already stated you are not technically minded so you will certainly need help to create the forum webpage. There are many online services you could use, or they could do it for you (at cost). If you plan to charge a membership you also need to sort out payment methods (visa, paypal etc) or bank transfer although maybe this is not part of your plan anyway.

Why not simply create a WhatsApp group as i suggested (takes less than a minute) if you only want to discuss the days racing. All you need is a smart phone and you're up and running. You invite (and delete) who you want.

What is the issue with this forum anyway, just create a new thread and keep everything on it. I can see you get a bit of flak, but to be honest you're attracting it with a barrage of posted bets that no one is really interested in and it appears you want to be in competition with Rico (Steve). Just keep it simple without the unnecessary add-ons. Good luck whatever you decide to do.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 4, 2021 8:47 PM BST
governing loonies

so much for my eye surgery Laugh
Report Rico-Dangleflaps October 4, 2021 8:51 PM BST
stewy would struggle with a 10 piece jigsaw andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 4, 2021 8:55 PM BST
Wink
Report tanglefoot October 4, 2021 10:30 PM BST
If you plan to charge a membership Laugh
PCR COVID day two test most £60
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 5, 2021 6:51 PM BST
Raclette not declared for the Oh So Sharp stakes at Newmarket on Friday (sadly) but Inspiral runs in the fillies mile.

Tanglefoot

Cheapest found so far is £55 at Kings Cross in London that is probably the best deal i can get. It has to be arranged before i fly on Thursday anyway otherwise i will be refused boarding.

My trip over (and the test) will be classed as a tax deductable business expense anyway although i doubt a Newmarket grandstand ticket will be allowed. Wink
Report TheAnorak October 5, 2021 7:08 PM BST
Also, Welwal has dropped out of the Listed event at Bordeaux on Thursday. Neither he nor Raclette have any current entries in France.
Report tanglefoot October 5, 2021 7:26 PM BST
Enjoy your trip,Andrew,and GL with the punting.
Report stewarty b October 6, 2021 12:45 AM BST
I did reply Andrew but it seems to have gone amiss. Long story short now. I wouldn't know how to set up an app and thanks for sharing your experience RE: your eyes. Would love to get it dome myself but tbh far too scared when in comes to my eyesight.
Report stewarty b October 6, 2021 12:53 AM BST
What is the issue with this forum anyway


I think you know the score there Andrew RE: yourself. I f only I could share the PM'S I've received since my suggestion. But hey, that's fair enough. If you see nothing wrong I suggest you take the blinkers off, (pardon the pun) and lookabout.


The world's most famous pretendee bully is now even having a pop at FOYLESWAR, a gentleman. The reason? He backed the winner of the Arc.


But don't let you stop you sending him your regards when his birthday comes around again.
Report stewarty b October 6, 2021 12:54 AM BST
* that stop you.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 6, 2021 10:39 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

I looked through the RP cards earlier that appeared to be typical midweek level although Ludlow (NH) and Kempton (AW) are pretty good standard. Probably a layers day rather than a backing one, at least in my opinion (a zillion favs will go in now). One NH runner i thought could be layed is Raffles Gitane (Sedgefield 5.05) who was matched as low as 3.2 but has drifted since. I layed for a few small sums at odds below 4 during the morning but i wouldn’t be interested at the current odds. She may come back in the betting later.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday.

Alan

Thanks for the Welwal/Raclette update. There’s not much left in UK/France for the filly at group level anyway, so maybe she will be put away for the winter.

Good luck with Love Dreams at Kempton this evening.

Tanglefoot

Thank you, i will.

Stewart

I assume your anxiety over eye surgery was based on an assumed laser treatment, but i didn’t have this. I simply had the cataract removed (via 2 very small cuts/broken up with ultra-sound) and a lens replaced. Trust me, no pain or discomfort whatsoever and although i was in for circa 3 hours, the actually surgery took less than 15 minutes. I wasn’t even aware anything was happening except for seeing blurry images. I guess the treatment is the same procedure in UK. The result (left eye) is remarkable and i can’t wait to have the other operated on next Monday. Don’t be concerned, there isn’t anything to be afraid of, honestly. Get it sorted.

As for WhatsApp, you simply download it and then create a dedicated invitation group by adding others (most people have the App these days). If you really want to pursue it i can give you detailed instructions here, but only you’re sure.

I agree the level of interest in this forum has dropped in recent years, but it’s still the better choice of those available in my opinion and there are quite a few around. As long as you don’t post BS, edited bets, continually aftertime and are a little courteous, the majority of posters are fine and respond accordingly. There are always trolls on all social media outlets and you know i’ve had a few on my lay threads since 2018. Thankfully it’s peaceful now, one is banned and the other looks like he got bored with it.  What is going to make your proposed forum any different anyway. Good luck.
Report TheAnorak October 6, 2021 1:53 PM BST
Andrew,

Thanks - hoping Love Dreams can earn the reward for his consistency, but no great surprise if he's just placed again.

Confirming that I won't be at Newmarket on Friday - sorted the petrol issue, but got first prize in the lottery via a phone call just now. An honest to goodness face to face appointment with a GP offered for 10:30 am Friday, after several weeks of fruitless back and forward from so called phone consultations.
Report stewarts rise October 6, 2021 2:02 PM BST
Well done Alan, gave up with trying to see a Dr ages ago, you have done well, and thanks for the comments on the French imports in the 1st race.
Report the dealer October 6, 2021 2:56 PM BST
. Thankfully it’s peaceful now, one is banned and the other looks like he got bored with it.




Hallelujah Grin
Report happysandwich October 6, 2021 4:45 PM BST
TheAnorak,

Would have been nice to have met you at Newmarket on Friday but your health comes first.
There’s no dead-heats when it comes to life and there’ll be horse racing when you’ve gone.

Good luck with Love Dreams at Kempton tonight – hope it wins for you.

I’m keeping my powder dry for Friday so I won’t be putting the “mockers” on it. Laugh
Report PHS October 6, 2021 9:24 PM BST

Oct 6, 2021 -- 7:53AM, TheAnorak wrote:


Andrew,Thanks - hoping Love Dreams can earn the reward for his consistency, but no great surprise if he's just placed again. Confirming that I won't be at Newmarket on Friday - sorted the petrol issue, but got first prize in the lottery via a phone call just now. An honest to goodness face to face appointment with a GP offered for 10:30 am Friday, after several weeks of fruitless back and forward from so called phone consultations.


£2.5k decent prize money (these days) for 2nd place since they changed the prize structure.

Report TheAnorak October 7, 2021 7:25 AM BST
Agreed - in fact I wrote this at the time the changes were introduced:

" I could make a good case that for the owner of a moderate class 4 handicapper, constantly finishing second or third could now be a better approach than trying to win. Because second and third now get better rewards, but don’t get raised (or at least not as much as the winner) by the handicapper. Which makes it easier to keep finishing second or third!"

Ironic that I now have a horse that is living proof of that idea. Although we do send him out trying to win!
Report Brian October 7, 2021 9:09 AM BST
Nice compensation Alan but the horse is so consistent, you can't help hoping he will get a deserved win soon.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 7, 2021 11:01 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

No review of the cards yet, maybe later if i get chance.

Alan

A nice run by Love Dreams in 2nd place last night (stayed on very well after being headed) and i guess you were happy with it, or as happy as you can be for finishing runner-up. A reasonable return for a class 4/AW and it should cover the expenses this month. He was only beaten a length by a younger, consistent rival, rated 4 lbs higher (could still be well handicapped) who has been favourite in his last 7 races. Sure to win a race before long as Brian intimated.

A pity you can’t make Newmarket tomorrow, but as Happy mentioned, health comes first. It looks a tricky card so any suggestions are welcome. Good luck with the doctor appointment.

Happysandwich, Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet

Looking forward to meeting up at Newmarket tomorrow, all my arrangements are in place now, including a PCR Covid test at 08.00 (Kings Cross) as part of entry into UK regulations (substitute the latter word with con). Evening flight into Gatwick and early-ish start in the morning.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 7, 2021 1:26 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

One lay to suggest this afternoon at Exeter (4.15) and short enough in the betting, unlike yesterday’s that drifted out to 9/2 (surprisingly) before finishing 4th of 6.

The Paul Nichols trained Rhythm Is A Dancer has won 3 of his last 4 chases (all class 3) but not been raised in the ratings much (well placed by PN) going from 126 to 134 (up another 4 lb this afternoon). He was lucky to win his penultimate race on this course due to a last fence faller. Not the most fluent of chasers, has jumped to the right on occasion (including on this course) and is up in trip. It’s a decent field for the class and in my opinion the Tizzard runner is the rightful favourite although i’m not necessarily suggesting he will win, any of the 4 can, but at the odds i’m a layer of Pauls' runner.

Good luck all.

The Dealer

Wink

I missed your 13.56 post earlier.
Report second again October 7, 2021 5:06 PM BST
Well done with the lay Andrew.I hope you all enjoy your day at Newmarket and back a couple of winners.Happy
Report the numbers seven October 7, 2021 5:18 PM BST
Difficult card at Newmarket tomorrow Andrew, one I have been waiting for is Twilight Jet in the 1.50. Its been running in G1 and G2 races over 6 and 7 furlongs. I have been waiting for it to run over 5f as I think it is the optimum trip for it. Ran well in the Middle Park stakes behind Perfect Power when leading till the last furlong and then running out off steam near the finish to be beaten 1 1/2. 9-2 on here and worth a look imo. Good luck and hope you enjoy the day.
Report Insideshrewdie October 7, 2021 5:20 PM BST
Well done Andrew once again.  Very nice to see this one shorten up in the betting as well ;-)
Report TheAnorak October 7, 2021 5:40 PM BST
One race on the Newmarket card has some standout trends that can at least narrow down the contenders. Since 2009, 10/11 winners came into the race having won their previous start - and five of those ten had won their first and only start prior to this race. In addition, only one winner had run more than three times previously.

I was at Salisbury the day that Good American won their valuable 7F filies maiden and it would be no surprise to see her improve considerably, as she looked far from fully tuned up and faced some useful and experienced opponents. The Salisbury/Oh So Sharp double was completed by Poets Vanity five years ago. And Andrew may recall Ralph Beckett winning the Salisbury race with Manuela De Vega on debut, who followed up on her second start in a Listed race.

On the same card at Salisbury, Pearl Glory was second in the 6F Group 3, but she did have the benefit of a run along the favoured far rail and might not have as much in hand of Misty Ayr and Perfect News as that result would suggest. Good American will be my sole bet on the card. Hope you all have a great day - weather looks set fair, which is a bonus for the Rowley Mile in October!
Report Lucky Luciano October 7, 2021 7:19 PM BST
Evening Andrew,
Missed the lay earlier, was trying to work my way though the card tomorrow and find a winner but I think I'm none the wiser Sad
Alan,
Ditto what Happysandwich, thanks for your post above and wish you well
Report happysandwich October 9, 2021 2:31 PM BST
Big thanks to Flash (Ed Thompson) Bookie from the Betfairs lads you met at Newmarket yesterday.
We all backed Coroebus.

Given my winnings to Mrs Happysandwich (again).Laugh

Coroebus

£93.60
Liability: £120.00
Report happysandwich October 9, 2021 2:42 PM BST
This betting to make ends meet is going to be the death me. LaughLaugh
Report The Management October 9, 2021 3:55 PM BST
It's very fortunate for you HS that Buick got a bit cocky/arrogant on him in his second race - otherwise he would most certainly have been an unbeaten Hatrick Seeker today - and you would have had to lay him instead! Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 12, 2021 2:03 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys and greetings from a very wet central München.

Back in my temporary adopted homeland (late Sunday) after a 3 day weekend in UK and had my right eye cataract operation in the city yesterday. The dressing was removed earlier this morning and although sight in this eye is a little 'cloudy' the consultant said it's due to an antibiotic solution that will wear off in less than 24 hours. The sight in both eyes is now at a level of -1.5; i never expected such a result and to say i am happy is an understatement. I will forever be thankful to the German health service.

Most readers know i was in UK to meet up with a few forum posters for the Newmarket meeting last Friday and all bar one turned up. Sadly Alan couldn't make it (this was known beforehand) but Happysandwich (and his wife) Lucky Luciano (with 2 friends) and Mr Spreadsheet did. I also got to have a good chat with Ed Thompson (Flash bookie on here) and Brian, both of whom i hadn't seen in a while due to covid quarantine restrictions.

It was a superb afternoon, everyone enjoyed it and i reitrate my WhatsApp group thanks to all of them. I had met Happysandwich and his wife before (Paris/Longchanp) but not Lucky or Mr Spreadsheet (albeit i'm in regular contact with the latter). A really nice group of guys, complimented by a few drinks, banter, exchange of opinions etc and to top it all, each one of us came out winning and not only because of Inspirial.  Happysandwich's wife also joined in the fun, she got on well with everyone (no betting) and really enjoyed it.

Perhaps the 2 'detectives' on here will finally realise that Happysandwich and i are not the same person (as intimated several times) but i don't expect any admission to it, nor do i need it.

Thanks to Ed for the price on Inspirial (also took Happy to meet him and place a bet). I also backed her again 'impulsively' about 30 seconds before the off with another bookie. Obviously a sign from above.

I wasn't overly happy to see Inspirial with a sole rival down the centre from the off, but before the 2f pole they merged with the rest and i could see she was going well and looking the likely winner. From then on it was plain sailing and she won as many expected although it wasn't a great G1 field. She's a large framed classy filly, will be much stronger next year and could turn out very decent although i wouldn't want to be taking 7/2 for the 1000 guineas almost 7 months away.

She was my only proper bet, but i had 3 others for fun (10, 10 and 20) all to win, the best being 7/1 runner-up Illustrating (i think the other 2 are still running). One of Lucky's friends backed the last winner EW and won a nice few quid, but pride of place for most visits to pick up cash was Mr Spreadsheet (5 i think)

The other 2 Newmarket shorties on Saturday made it a decent weekend punting wise for me, more than covering all my expenses (sorry for the aftertime, but isn't it compulsory on here). The guys knew who i was backing anyway. Both odds on (4/5 and 5/6) but they don't all win.

The 6 million dollar question is which one will turn out the better. I thought Coroebus looked good in winning (and should be unbeaten) but in my opinion it will be the form horse Native Trail, even though he takes a while to get going (same LTO in Ireland). He looks like a 3 year old already (akin to Pinatubo) and will be better over 8f. Irrespective of this ante-post odds for the 2000 guineas are not appealing, but one thing is sure, neither will win the Derby.

To cap the weekend off i was finally able to pick up my Joe Biden US President winnings in Earls Court although i had to wait. It wasn't the original Koral shop, but the guy managed to find the funds so i gave him a drink. I left a small 30 win fun bet on Bravemansgame there (my only shop bet of the day) hopefully it will not be a year to pick it up this time. It shouldn't be because i've already told the guys i will be coming over for Tingle Creek weekend at Sandown (December 3rd/4th).

Before i went to hospital this morning i left a lay on Aimee De Sivola (2.48 Hereford) but it wasn't matched sadly and now it's drifted alarmingly so i will leave it. The only other bet i've had is a lay on Oisin for the jockeys championship (1.42) that i feel is a trade at least.

It was sad to read that the popular owner Trevor Hemmings has passed away, if there is a list of rags to riches stories, he will certinaly be on it. Hopefully a race will be named in his honour at some point in the future. RIP.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all. Maybe more when i get home.

The numbers seven

Well done with your winner, i think a couple of the guys backed it, but not me. I did Illustrating and although running well, yours won easily. Hope you made a few quid.
Report happysandwich October 12, 2021 2:59 PM BST
Stone last of three.
Another fiver in Happy's coffer
They knew Cool

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Aimee De Sivola
2.64
£5.00
£8.20
Ref: 247052604461 Matched: 14:48 12-Oct-21
Report Lucky Luciano October 12, 2021 5:51 PM BST
Evening Andrew,
Busy yesterday working in London and today from home so not had time to look at the racing since the weekend. Speaking of which, agree with your comments about Friday and for the benefit of any conspiracy theorists can confirm you and Happysandwich are not the same person Laugh

WD with today’s lay, must have got matched if Happysandwich did.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 12, 2021 8:09 PM BST
Evening Lucky/Happysandwich,

Unfortunately i didn't get matched on the lay, i left it up at 2.48 (same as the race time) but after i came out of the eye hospital i noticed it had drifted to almost 4 so i cancelled the bet (that's what i meant by leaving it). I thought i would go back to the race later but didn't in the end. C'est la vie.

At least Buick rode a treble (Oisin only one winner) so that bet is looking better.

WD Happy, every little helps Wink
Report Mr_Spreadsheet October 13, 2021 7:41 AM BST
A great day out and good to finally put faces to names. Hopefully Alan can make it next time. Yes 5 pickups for me (4 winners). A lucky day Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 13, 2021 12:05 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A stay home recovery day for me and looking at the racecards (i feel i can see them from a metre away now Wink) not bad for a non festival mid-week with a couple of graded races at Punchestown and even a listed race at Bath. There are not too many Black type races at this venue in a season, only a couple i think.

The Buick v Murphy jockey title rivalry rolls on to Nottingham this afternoon and each one has several chances with only 4 days left and the latter 4 in front. For obvious financial reasons i will be cheering every Buick winner (scroll back) and he has a 2 race start on Murphy. Of course the latter is in the driving seat but looking at their remaining rides i feel its going to the wire, in fact it could be a one race shootout at Ascot.

Currently i only have one lay to suggest this afternoon Gaelik Coast (Wetherby 3.23) currently trading around 3.70, a little on the high side i must admit. Only had one run outside of novice chasing and this was LTO in an Aintree Grade 3 handicap so maybe he can be forgiven. Since running off a debut handicap mark in November his 5 runs have all been off 136/137 (138 today) so not really progressive, although that's not to say he won't be this season.

Not that fluent over the larger obstacles and although Wetherby is not the course it once was the fences still take a bit of jumping here. Hasn't run for 6 months although to be fair he did win when fresh this time last year. Appears to run better on sharp tracks.

A good field and even the JJ topweight and outsider can't be ignored. I like Whoshotthesheriff but it's a very open race and not really for backing anything with any real conviction. I layed earlier at 3.80.

Changing topic i have a Timeform racecard from last Fridays Newmarket meeting and also the Longchamp Arc Trials program (in French) both clean copies. If anyone wants them, please send me a PM, i never keep them (except for Frankel).

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Mr Spreadsheet

It certainly was a lucky day for you, i thought it was a tricky card (Inspirial apart) beforehand. Let's hope we all have a similar day at Sandown. Happy
Report TheAnorak October 13, 2021 2:51 PM BST
Sounds as if you all had a better Friday than me - my GP appointment, to paraphrase Neil Armstrong, was 'one small step for a patient, one giant wait for a hospital appointment'. Tingle Creek day sounds tempting though.

And on the French front, Welwal has an entry for a class 2 1500 metre race on the AW track at Deauville on the 21st.
Report Lucky Luciano October 13, 2021 3:35 PM BST
Gaelik coast Happy
Layed in running to win a score, last jump made up the difference
WD Andrew, just
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 13, 2021 3:41 PM BST
Photo in the Wetherby 3.23 (my lay) went in my favour, what a heart the winner has, he could win a decent handicap in time. I actually napped the winner in the comps, but didn't back it.

Afternoon Alan,

We obviously made the better steps Wink. Good luck with your hospital appointment.

Thanks for the Welwal information, maybe we will get an idea of how good Andre's filly is.

I've already got a flight booked for the Tingle Creek/Shishkin weekend, initally it was for Friday evening, but i've changed it for Thursday. Hope you can make it.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 13, 2021 3:43 PM BST
WD Lucky Happy

To be honest i thought Gaelik was going to get up, but the winner stayed on very well. I was surprised at the photo betting being so close, at least initially.
Report happysandwich October 13, 2021 4:06 PM BST
Well done Lucky, that’s your getting in money for Sandown sorted.Laugh

Watched the race but didn’t have a bet because I’m still counting yesterday’s £4.90 winnings from Aimee De Sivola.

£4.87, £4.88, £4.89  …….
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 13, 2021 6:44 PM BST
Indian Cricket - 999/1

700            £4
730            £0
820            £20
940            £3
950            £0
990            £20
1000        £0    £616

Went to the last 2 balls Shocked
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2021 2:56 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Back in the office but it doesn’t stop me looking at the RP most days when i can find some Andrew time.

The flat jockeys title race is getting interesting (as is my bet) with Buick reducing the deficit to 2 (from 6) in the last couple of days and he may be able to pull another back at Chelmsford this evening. In terms of rides today/tomorrow it’s 15/11 in favour of Buick and at Ascot on Saturday (final day) it’s 5/4 respectively. I mentioned yesterday it could go to the wire and who knows, maybe Adayar will be the decider (no ride for OM in the race).

On to this afternoon, my suggested lay is Ran Rite (Tramore 3.47) who isn’t really named well at the moment although his hurdle form of last year is not that bad in the context of this race. He hasn’t looked a natural chaser in 4 runs by any means although he did win a P2P a couple of years ago. Very much one paced and not one you would want to be lumping on even if it is backed. A small field of 5, all in with a shout really and although i like Champagne Sparkles (the drink is over-rated in my opinion) it’s not backing race for me. I layed earlier, my only bet so far.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Report Lampus October 14, 2021 3:04 PM BST
Good Luck ANDREW Happy
Report BESTMATE44 October 14, 2021 3:56 PM BST
Well done Andrew,jumped poorly and never really in with a chance,a nice lay!
Report Lampus October 14, 2021 3:56 PM BST
EASY  PEASY  Thank you ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2021 4:32 PM BST
Lampus/Bestmate

Thank you.

7/4f was too short really and jumping left on a right handed, sharp course, more akin to Wimbledon doesn't help.

He didn't jump that well over the hurdles course either last year, but in truth he's simply not that good.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 15, 2021 1:41 PM BST
Good sunny afternoon Guys,

Only a meagre post this afternoon (workload) but a suggested lay nevertheless in No No Maestro (Uttoxeter 3.40). Form figures of -3211 may initially suggest an improving chaser, but it's not conclusive from a ratings perspective. Ignore his debut run off 107 (PU) and his 3rd next time out wasn’t a poor run by any means (receiving 9 lb and 10 lb respectively). His 2nd (of 4) was a similar story (receiving 14 lb) the placers weren’t at the races and were all but tailed off. His penultimate race resulted in a win by a neck in a 5 runner field where 2 failed to finish (receiving 18 lb) and a mistake by the runner-up cost him the race. His win LTO was at least on level terms but certainly aided by the runner-up who found very little on the run in (has won since to be fair). 

The handicapper hasn’t been overly impressed by the recent wins only raising him from 104 to 107 and in my opinion he’s been a little fortunate (and well placed by the trainer). A bigger field this afternoon, only 3 below him in the weights and it looks a tricky race to call. I was a layer before lunch although i appreciate i could have got him completely wrong and he really is improving.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report stewarts rise October 15, 2021 1:49 PM BST
Good luck Andrew, just point out that F O'brien has an excellent record with his chasers at Uttoxeter, around 25% overall but currently 57% this season, let's hope Ask a Honeybee wins earlier.
Report Lampus October 15, 2021 2:07 PM BST
G/L ANDREW Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 15, 2021 2:16 PM BST
Thanks Stewart/Lampus,

If anyone is going to lay it, it may be prudent to do it IR as he's certain to go off in front, but he's not the most fluent over fences. A risk of course, but at 15/8 i was happy to lay him.

Good luck.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 15, 2021 3:55 PM BST
Could i have got it any more wrong !

Possibly the easiest winner of the day.
Report stewarts rise October 15, 2021 4:17 PM BST
Just one of those things, you put up good reasons to lay it but horse has improved from previous runs, never mind.
Report BESTMATE44 October 15, 2021 4:50 PM BST
You can't win em all Andrew!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 9:14 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Another Saturday champions day following Newmarket last week, this time at Ascot with the seasons final G1 race for 3 year olds and older. The media appear to be building it up into a trio of 'duels' commencing with Trueshan v Stradivarius, on to Palace Pier v Baaeed and culminating in Mishriff v Adayar. They obviously didn't spot Maries Diamond v Matthew Flinders in the concluding Balmoral handicap (i obviously woke up with my sarcastic head on). It's doubtful whether all these purported matches will materialise in a 1-2 and it's not impossible for none of the pre-mentioned to win either.

If i do play any of the named horses i think it will be backing Trueshan and laying Stradivarius to cover a stake in the opener (1.25) albiet mindful of how hard a race he had in Paris a couple of weeks ago (this applies to several runners this afternoon).

I favour Mishriff in the Champions stakes (3.50) more so considering his preparation and i think a 3TBP could pay dividends with respect to the improving Dubai Honour.

In the minefield that is the Balmoral handicap (4.30) i already had a couple of fun bets last night on Dashing Roger and Rosscolyn both matched at win odds of 36. I like both (with the proviso of how tricky this race is) but the draw has been kinder to the latter. I appreciate the favourite Sunray Major could be a group horse in the making, but there is no way i could be tempted to back this one at 9/4, not only based on the high draw and i will certainly be laying this one.

All backing stakes on the above are/will be small but depending on how the afternoon pans out i may lay the latter to cover all stakes and a small profit (assuming he's beaten of course).

Black type races are thin on the ground elsewhere (a soft G3 and listed in Ireland) but on the other side of the globe earlier this morning the 13/10 favourite and 5 year old Incentivise won the 12f Caulfield Cup (easily) despite a poor draw, earning over £1.7 million in the process and heads for the race that stops a nation on November 2nd. He's going to take some stopping even though he steps up significantly to 3200 metres (16f). Mind you, current ante-post odds of 9/4 are not exactly appealing.

Staying with Australia, many will remember the ex-AOB trained Sir Dragonet (Chester Vase winner) who left Irish shores to continue his racing over there, winning the Cox Plate. Sadly he was put down earlier today after a gallop injury. RIP.

Looking at the NH cards there were a few potential lays but one i layed last night is Hashtag Val (Ffols Las 1.40) (there is a NR now). I appreciate the connections and this is reflected in the price but i suspect he will want a stiffer test than 16f on this course with good going. First foal from an unraced dam he has been fancied in a couple of French runs (one flat) but the form is questionable.

Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Stewart/Bestmate

Thanks. Of course it was a risky lay and much of the reasoning was based on my misguided interpretation of the form but in mitigation the handicapper wasn't impressed either. One thing is sure he will be raising him more than 2 lb on Tuesday.

I've been on a decent run and was due a losing day, that's racing.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 9:21 AM BST
Rhoscolyn

Need to get my eyes tested Wink
Report TheAnorak October 16, 2021 10:15 AM BST
One factor to be wary of today at Ascot is the going report. Here are the going stick numbers given for the round course today and at four recent meetings:

Today  :  6.4   good to soft, good in places

Oct 2nd   6.3   good to soft, soft in places

Oct 1st   6.1   good to soft, good in places

Sep 4th   6.8   good to firm

Sep 3rd   6.4   good, good to firm in places

All of which makes Kirkland Tellwrong at Haydock look sensible. My feeling is that it would be a mistake to assume that horses favouring soft ground will get their conditions today. The last time a similar going stick number and going report was given for Champions Day was in 2015, when it was 6.6 good to soft, soft in places for the round course. Fascinating Rock won the Champion Stakes that day in a time just 0.9s above standard.
Report Lucky Luciano October 16, 2021 11:02 AM BST
Morning Andrew,
You were due one yesterday and I noticed NNM was heavily backed just before the off probably due to it looking like it might get a uncontested lead like you said.
If the going figures Alan has kindly provided above are true surely Trueshan will be the lay as connections wont have the opportunity of seeing any earlier races, not beyond impossible could be a NR, although nothing to lose running
I should add it has just stated raining here but im about the wrong side of opposite of London, according to MW2 only about 3/4 mm due
Report Lucky Luciano October 16, 2021 11:12 AM BST
I should add re the going if the going figures turn out to be misleading
Report TheAnorak October 16, 2021 11:31 AM BST
More detail than anyone could really need here, but an interesting explanation of how the going stick is used to arrive at the reading:

https://www.ascot.co.uk/thegoing
Report TheAnorak October 16, 2021 12:09 PM BST
An update by Ascot at 11:48 after 2.5mm of rain - now good to soft, soft in places. The updated going map shows soft ground from the 10F start to about the 6F marker, then good to soft to the furlong pole, soft final furlong.
Report Lucky Luciano October 16, 2021 12:38 PM BST
Cheers for the update, will probably just watch the race, in all likelihood wont be able to get a bet on here anyway as site appears to have crashed
Report BESTMATE44 October 16, 2021 5:00 PM BST
Well done with Hashtag Val Andrew.
Report PHS October 16, 2021 5:47 PM BST
WD today Andrew. Mishriff the only disappointment but several lays coming off.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 6:52 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Alan/Lucky

Thank you for the Ascot going status posts.

I didn't see much of the ITV coverage as i was in the city centre, but it looked a very decent card, the best for some time in fact.

The hype bubble surrounding Snowfall has been well and truly burst in recent weeks, sods law she started regressing when i was in Paris for Arc trial day, but in hindsight maybe that's as good as she is, or ever was. Thankfully she hasn't carried my money since, once bitten etc.

By the way, i may be bringing my daughter to Sandown in December (Tingle Creek). She's a lucky mascot, i've only ever taken her to 2 race meetings before, Frankels QA and Golden Horns Eclipse whilst she was on vacation with me. Having said that i doubt Shishkin needs luck to win the race anyway.

Bestmate/PHS

Thank you. A profitable post this morning to make up for the suggested lay winning comprehensively yesterday and making me look a right idiot. All 3 lays were beaten this afternoon, with the win and place on Trueshan and Dubai Major respectively adding icing on the cake.

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 6:53 PM BST
I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 6:57 PM BST
Try again ......

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 16, 2021 7:11 PM BST
Last attempt to paste rest of the post.

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
Report Macintoshmatty October 16, 2021 8:32 PM BST
No need to gloat AndrewLaugh
Report Macintoshmatty October 16, 2021 8:35 PM BST
layed it 3 times!!
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