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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 08:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,485 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
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Report second again November 19, 2021 9:23 AM GMT
I have not looked at tomorrows runners yet,today I think Captain Morgs in the 2.40 Ascot has every chance and will be a win bet.I have thought that Hendersons eye problems must be a negative for training horses.Any stable would miss someone as experienced as Corky Brown.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 19, 2021 12:41 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Looks a decent enough card at Ascot this afternoon, albeit a few small fields, and i doubt it’s as cut and dried as the betting odds may suggest.

If there is a bet or two, i think Torn And Frayed will make all the running to win the 12.55 and later a lay of the likely favourite Captain Morgs in the 2.40 could both pay out. Odds of 6/4 are skinny, it looks a tricky handicap to me, he was receiving 15 lb when 3rd LTO and is dropping in trip considerably. Did have decent form as a 4 year old but hasn’t reproduced it since.

Some of you may have read/seen the covid situation in Bavaria is worsening, so much so that new measures were implemented Monday and yesterday. Part of the new rules mean those non-vaccinated (i am) will not be allowed to use public transportation, enter public facilities (including brothels oddly enough) nor to go to work without a negative test. At the DLR (where i am) i will have to work remote (home) on alternate days from next Monday and i’ve been informed i can take as much free time as is practical for the project, or even work in Sweden. I’m currently looking for office space at major race tracks in UK. Laugh

Seriously, as a result of the new measures, i may be going to Sandown on both days on Tingle Creek weekend, but certainly the Saturday. A 4 day weekend in London is appealing.

Alan/Second Again

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated.

S-A, good luck (one of us will be celebrating Wink)

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report PHS November 19, 2021 4:37 PM GMT

Nov 19, 2021 -- 2:15AM, TheAnorak wrote:


Morning All,A big couple of days ahead for N Henderson, whose usual November rush of winners has yet to arrive this year. Is that all down to the weather, or is the yard continuing the slow decline that began with the retirement of Corky Brown. I was at Newbury earlier this month, a meeting often dominated by Henderson - he had 4 runners that produced two seconds (one at 8/15), a refused to race and a 9th in the bumper. The big Cheltenham meeting went by with just four Henderson runners and no winners. The total for this month so far is 7 winners, compared to November scores of 22,17,18,19 in the four previous years. Five runners at Ascot today, four of which are currently priced at 4/1 or less. Four runners across three meetings tomorrow. Will you be a layer or a backer?


2 winners; couldn't make it upMischief

Report The Management November 19, 2021 5:05 PM GMT
Stats, patterns and trends are there to be defied! - It's the Law of the Sod!

But for lovers of stats/patterns/trends, I just posted my interesting one for yesterday on the snooker forum  - When Higgins played Ding yesterday and won the first frame (odds approx 4/5) it was the 12th consecutive time that he had won the first frame when meeting Ding.

For Andrew, I have gone with the Bavarian connection for todays Interesting Stat/pattern/trend:

Augsburg versus Bayern Munich (19:30 tonight). There has been a First Half Goal in 52 of Bayerns last 54 league games (That's 96.3% and Current odds for Over 0.5 First Half Goals tonight is 1.22). Which seems even more generous when you consider that Augsburg have conceded within 15 minutes in 6 of their 11 league games so far and also that there has been a goal within 17 minutes in 8 of Bayerns 11 games so far.

If you believe in the forum curse or just think stats/patterns/trends are there to be defied, Under 0.5 First Half Goals is available at about 9/2.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 20, 2021 10:54 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

I’m surprised i’m allowed to post today after the couple of selections i put up yesterday, a lay and a back, i should have reversed the bets. I mentioned Torn And Frayed would make all the running to win and if he hadn’t jump to the left at virtually every fence i would have been correct. To be fair the winner copied him in playing follow the leader (novice chasers often do) albeit not to the same extent. I thought Torn And Frayed would probably win jumping the last (in front) but Harry Skelton did the right thing by going for the rail, he knew he would have the space. A good race on the run-in but the winner stayed on better to win by 3/4L.

As for the lay of Captain Morgs, i simply got it wrong. Based on form alone he was short enough at 7/4f and the only positive i thought was his weight and considering the 12 lb less he was carrying than the runner-up it was enough (won by 3/4L). Never mind, when you fall off a bike etc.

A few decent cards this afternoon with the Betfair Chase taking pride of place, there’s also a couple of decent novice chasers running on both sides of the Irish Sea in Bob Olinger (Gowran 12.00) and Bravemansgame (Haydock 1.50). Both may win (albeit at restricted odds) but it will be interesting to see how they run without betting.

Last Monday i posted that A Plus Tard was short enough in the betting for the Betfair chase (Haydock 3.00) and a few NR’s (including one earlier in Next Destination) that have reduced his odds even further. Clearly the form horse in the field and a rightful favourite, but will a ‘less than testing’ Haydock first time out play to his strengths. He runs well enough fresh, but in 3 November season debuts he hasn’t won and i also feel he may prefer a little more juice in the ground. Will he be 100% today ? I’m actually thinking to put this one up as a P/L selection later, but it’s a risky one. Irrespective of this i’ve already layed him at 2.28.

Backers of Defi Du Seuil (Ascot 2.05) will be hoping he can regain his 2019/2020 form (would be short here if so) but you need a lot of faith even after a wind operation. Up in trip and i was a layer at 3.85 earlier.

Readers of this thread know my friend Brigust1 (Laurie Williamson) who was groom for the great Brigadier Gerard and often posts here (and letters to the RP) specially when it comes to ratings and comparison with Frankel, understandable given his connection with the horse. He’s beeen wiling his time writing a book, now published and available via the link below for those that are interested (i’m not on commission Laugh). Hope it sells well Laurie.

www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk.

PHS/The Management

Thanks for the posts and WD with the Augsburg v Bayern München game (surprising result).

Second Again

WD with the win yesterday, hope you made plenty (some of it mine Wink).

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 20, 2021 11:07 AM GMT
www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk
Report Trusty November 20, 2021 11:16 AM GMT
Thanks for posting Andrew and GL.

I am going to risk a lay of Might I in the first at around 1.95. Been tried in higher class before and wasn't successful and although impressive in lower grade all the others seem to have a chance to me and thus market looks wrong.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 20, 2021 12:09 PM GMT
Thanks Trusty. I noticed yours is a NR one of quite a few this afternoon.

Bob Olinger backers may have a scare or two over the fences, but he won well enough in the end.
Report second again November 20, 2021 12:27 PM GMT
Thanks Andrew,the 2nd must have traded very short,I am not a big backer but enjoy the game.I hope you get it back soon.
Report Lucky Luciano November 20, 2021 1:40 PM GMT
Afternoon Andrew,
Times at Haydock seem to indicate to me the going is not much worse than good (hurdle course has now been changed to good) 12.40 chase over 3m.4f race ran just outside RP standard time of 7.23 (according to time I took off the tv 7.27 been waiting for confirmation but not on RP site yet)
I've picked one out in the hardest race today 2.25 Haydock in Riggs. Dan Skelton has stated this is the plan, Harry gone up from Ascot (could have rode there) and has nothing to carry only 10.4lb perfect age and unexposed. Against that he is probably not the only one with similar profile !
Good luck and thanks for the write up
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 21, 2021 11:47 AM GMT
Good afternoon Guys from a very sunny West of München.

The often used greeting above will be a thing of the past soon (in part at least) as the owner of my rental apartment is returning in January so i will be moving. A pity as it's in a lovely area with a large lake just outside the city and i like it here. 5 minutes walk to the S-Bahn, a oouple more to the lake and hotel where i often have a drink and watch the wind surfers/boats.

It's a small, very touristy area and in summertime it appears half of München decends on it, but with distant views of the Alps and an Italian flavour it's hardly surprising. in 2019 i was living in Pasing (a nice part of München) before moving here and i looked at an apartment close to that area yesterday, so it looks like back to the city life for me soon.

The covid situation in parts of Europe is worsening specially in Germany and Austria, in fact the latter is going to introduce en-masse mandatory vaccination next year. Not so here (at least not yet) and i have my doubts it would be accepted (although it will be for healthcare workers) but new stringent measures were implemented by the Bavarian state on Monday and Thursday, as did my workplace the German DLR. It's not all bad, i will be working remote from home on alternate days for the next few weeks at least so more RP/ITV racing time. Wink

On to racing yesterday, i got Defi De Seuil right (i sense he's fallen out of love with the game and is best avoided) but conversely i must have had a brain fog moment by suggesting the favourite A Plus Tard was a lay in the Betfair chase (albeit risky). Was there a more easier and impressive winner all afternoon. Of course with 3 main rivals in a small field failing to complete the course his task was made much easier, but he travelled so well and had the race sewn up before the 4th last, and in a fast time. Simply different class.

We did see another top class winner at Haydock, this time a novice, Bravemansgame who was surprisingly available at 4/5 on here in the morning. Whilst the winning distance was nowhere near the chasm A Plus Tard won by, the manner of his win was very impressive, Harry never moved on him and i could have ridden it.

In my opinion he's the best novice seen so far this season and it will take a good one to beat him at Kempton next time out. I've never been to the Boxing day meeting and although it's very unlikely i will go this year, it's tempting although i would have to bribe by daughter with a trip to Oxford street. Laugh

Over at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) this morning i noticed that Golden Sixty took his record to 18/19 (15 on the spin) in the Group 2 Jockey Club Mile, what is more remarkable is he often wins in a photo, in fact 3 of his last 4 by a head or short head. Will we see him at Royal Ascot next summer ? I doubt it, he's only ever raced at Sha Tin and why travel when you can mop up high value Group races at home (winner of approaching 8 million GBP now).

I looked through the cards earlier that are typical of those on a Sunday afternoon although a few of the races look interesting including the Grade 3 at Navan.

There wasn't anything that really jumped off the page, but i thought a runner at Uttoxeter (1.10) was lay material in Bootlegger (currently 2.88). Consistent, but not really progressing. Has form on sharp tracks but his last couple of wins were at Doncaster and off marks of 119 and 120. On 126 this afternoon and he's run to similar levels in his previous 4 races without getting his head in front. A small field of 6 where all (bar one) are closely matched. I layed earlier at 2.96.

I've hit a lull in my lay selections since i returned from Sweden on Tuesday, perhaps i should have stayed and simply enjoyed the Glögg (Mulled Wine). Back there again next Friday, but returning early Monday morning, so a short trip.

Mind you laying at such short odds is obviously going to throw up winners, it's an accepted part of the game. As for the P/L on this thread i'm going to scroll back and update it, i used to post it after each applicable race but it got left behind and will take a little time to type it out. Never mind, home office tomorrow. Wink. I'm fairly sure there will be in small profit as i was on a roll with P/L selections after a poor start.

I posted a link to Brigust1 new book about Brigadier Gerard yesterday, albeit incorrectly first (full stop at the end). I corrected it, but here it is again, maybe a Christmas present to yourself.

www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Second Again/Lucky

Thank you for the posts.
Report Lampus November 21, 2021 1:19 PM GMT
Well  done ANDREW   HappyHappy
Report second again November 21, 2021 1:52 PM GMT
A good lay,well beaten.
Report second again November 21, 2021 1:52 PM GMT
A good lay,well beaten.
Report PHS November 21, 2021 4:56 PM GMT
Andrew,
Your grammar is usually exemplary, but "Was there a more easier and impressive winner all afternoon" will take me a while to recover from!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 22, 2021 7:50 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Working remotely from home thanks to Angela Merkel, not something i particularly enjoy although it does have its advantages of course.

Only 31 runners at Kempton, but it's not a bad card actually and at least no fields with long odds-on favourites. WPM doesn't send many to the track and i was hoping his mare My Sister Sarah would be a better price in the listed Race (1.60 is short enough). The other meetings are typical of a Monday with a few interesting races.

I looked through the cards earlier and thought Sebastopol (Kempton 1.15) was layable at odds around 2.20. If there is a case of forever the bridesmaid never the bride, this one certainly fits the bill with a run of 7 runner-up finishes on the spin. Not ungenuine by any means, just not good enough on the day. Connections apppear to be undecided what his best trip is, he's tried several between 16f and 25.5f recently.

Tends to jump to the left that could be a negative on this course. Ran well enough to finish just under 5L behind Third Time Lucki LTO, but the winner won cosily. Only 3 runners, but a decent race where any of thm could win although i don't think Sebastopol will.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Lampus/Second Again

Thank you. Layers never really had a worry and i was very surprised at the 6/5f SP. Always nice to get a shortie beaten.

PHS

Agree on the latter part and i hold my hands up.

Was there an easier, more impressive winner .............. Wink
Report Trusty November 22, 2021 2:24 PM GMT
You got a 1.01 beat AIS! I left an IR lay but not as low as that :-(
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 22, 2021 2:57 PM GMT
Trusty

Never in doubt Laugh

Seriously, i got lucky with the last fence fall, otherwise he would have won of course. We need a little luck in betting and it was on my side today. Getting these shorties beaten is a bonus, as was 10/11 on My Sister Sarah.
Report sofiakenny November 22, 2021 3:01 PM GMT
Ya jammy git!!LaughLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 22, 2021 3:15 PM GMT
Sofiakenny

It was all planned Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 23, 2021 1:11 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Another day working remotely from home and it could be all week.

Very ordinary cards today but i did notice a John Gosden/Goldophin, well bred newcomer named Aerospace running at Chelmsford this evening. No i don't own it and considering it cost 300,000 gns at the Tattersall Decemer Sales this is hardly surprising. If it had been double fiugure odds (no chance) i would have had a fun bet, but i will watch the race anyway.

A runner i thought could be lay material is the short priced favorite Aire Valley Lad (Sedgefield 2.45). Lighty raced, winner of a bumper and hurdle, but only 3 runs over the larger obstacles. Finished 3rd of 7 LTO but dissect the form, only 4 finished (beaten over 12L) and he was receiving 24 lb and 23 lb respectively from those in front.

Has run over the course but was well beaten. The fences are easy here and this may assist lack of chase experience by the others. Only a small field of 5, forget the outsider and it looks a tricky handicap. Up in trip to 19.5f and his run at Hexham over 20f earlier in the year didn't show him in a good light, albeit in a better race. I've layed him at 2.40 and it looks as though the odds haven't moved in either direction all morning.

Stable form is a negative for layers, but i thought he was very short at 5/4.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report Lampus November 23, 2021 1:28 PM GMT
Thank you ANDREW Happy
Report paulmul November 23, 2021 2:53 PM GMT
Nice one Andrew
Report TheAnorak November 23, 2021 2:53 PM GMT
Aerospace has been diverted to Wolverhampton!

It's a race that highlights how difficult it is to win a simple novice stakes worth less than £4k to the winner. Two Gosden runners, two for Charlie Appleby, two for Andrew Balding, two for Mark Johnston and one from William Haggas. At least a million quids worth of potential racing on the AW, but still there are people who complain that it's all rubbish.
Report The Management November 23, 2021 4:36 PM GMT
Harley tried to launch him at the furlong pole - but he didn't take off!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 23, 2021 4:37 PM GMT
Lampus/Paulmul

Thank you.

Aire Valley Lad was well backed (10/11f) but for what reason is mindboggling although he looked the likely winner 3 fences out. The eventual winner deserves credit though, staying on strongly although i suspect the favourite was also tiring.

It's nice to get shorties beaten, more so when they are odds-on.

Alan

Due to fog at Stansted airport Wink

I don't know why i mentioned Chelmsford, i must have had last nights head on.

Just seen the result, JG won with the stablemate
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 23, 2021 4:39 PM GMT
The Management

Exceeded MTOW (maximum take off weight) Wink
Report The Management November 23, 2021 4:39 PM GMT
Aerospace - they will have to try a New Approach if they want to Sea The Stars.

I'll get me coat!
Report TheAnorak November 23, 2021 4:45 PM GMT
An object lesson in why being drawn in stall one is rarely beneficial at Wolverhampton, at least in a field of that size. Ideal for a proven front runner of course, but a trap for anything that doesn't lead.
Report The Management November 23, 2021 4:53 PM GMT
Yes Alan - the one box at Southwell (Fibresand) was a coffin-box (specifically over 6 furlongs) for many years - strangely towards the very end that didn't seem to be the case to the same extent and (although sadly and obviously it's irrelevant now) it still bugs me a bit as to why it evened out a tiny bit right at the end.
Report TheAnorak November 23, 2021 5:23 PM GMT
I always thought that Southwell had a build up of the track material along that inside rail, caused by the maintenance done with rollers and harrows, which probably didn't always get right up against the rail. So the horse in stall one was running on deeper, slower ground. Back in the days when I was still betting there (up to about 2006), I'd avoid all low drawn horses and keep a list of those that ran well from stall one for future reference.

As to the change at the end, maybe with the complete replacement of the surface coming up soon, they just stopped working on the track, or at least reduced the amount of time and effort put into maintenance.
Report The Management November 23, 2021 6:12 PM GMT
Agree your rationale as to why stall one was such a disadvantage - I never laid/place laid them blind and always checked running style/make up of the race - but for whatever reason the inside surface was deeper and the kickback horrid and you could have profitably just laid them blind in 6f Handicaps.

Regarding the change (right at the end) - what you say is possible. I guess it wasn't a secret but laying them and note-booking the ones that ran well despite the draw was very profitable for many years, specifically (for me) in the 6f Handicaps.

Then I can remember (Sir) Bob Cooper (Love) reading out an incredible (but slightly inaccurate) stat about stall one over 6 furlongs that he said one of the crew had told him. I think he said something like 76 consecutive losers if 8 runners or more (something like that). I don't think it was accurate but I was playing decent sized field Handicaps only and mostly place laying. Either way (as you'd expect from Bob) it wasn't an accurate stat but I was horrified when he shared it!

I cursed him for publicly giving away such valuable information but it was towards the end anyway. Law of the sod and karma for Sir Bob for blabbing - I'm pretty sure that stall one then won the 6f (non-handicap) race that he was previewing when he read out the stat!

There were limited meetings remaining, so not too many more 6f Handicaps with adequate runners for me - but it went to pot (after years of success) for the last handful of meetings from the point where Bob shared the stat.

Let's see what the tapeta brings! GL.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 24, 2021 2:32 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

Doitforandrew won at Dundalk earlier, how much did i have on as a fun bet ? Sad

Alan/The Management

Thanks for the posts, interesting.
Report Trusty November 26, 2021 6:40 PM GMT
Going to try another lay tomorrow, hopefully not a non-runner again.

Although Nina The Terrier is actually 5lb better of with both Ahorsewithnoname and Elle Est Belle; the latter simply cruised up in the last race before blowing up and will surely make a race of it this time. Nina also seems to have a preference for Good ground and the overnight rain on top of the incredulous decision to water probably means at least SOFT tomorrow. King has also tried to win this race 7 times without success and I don't have a longer history but the last 5 years at least the race has been won by an unpenalised horse. There are four running four me and Rainyday Woman looks over-priced in double figures.

Lay Nina for 3pts Currently 2.82/2.84
Win back Elles Est Belle 1.5pts Currently 2.80/2.84
Win back Rainyday Woman 0.5pts Currently 10.0/13.5 10/1 with the books generally.

GL me and you if you play.Grin
Report TheAnorak November 26, 2021 8:00 PM GMT
Trusty,

I've a feeling you've got the wrong end of the going stick about the watering at Newbury. The watering was done last week in order to produce the good to soft, good in places. That's why the going report says 'watered' - past tense. They haven't been watering ground that was already good to soft.

Actually, all they've done is keep the going about the same as it was for the first NH meeting on Nov 4th. Race times today were plenty quick enough to suggest that they haven't overdone it. Yes, the rain will have an effect, but it would have had an effect if they hadn't watered - but then they wouldn't have had so many runners either.
Report Trusty November 27, 2021 12:18 AM GMT
Thanks Alan, tbh with the move in the stocks, energy and metal markets today I haven't been paying full attention but I am adamantly opposed to watering especially in Winter months. If we end up with small fields so be-it but plenty of horses act better on good or better ground and rarely get the chance to show their value with CoC's being influenced by the big trainers to unnecessarily water to attract a big name horse or two.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 27, 2021 9:33 AM GMT
Good morning Guys from a chilly Linköping, the Aerospace capital of Scandinavia.

Only a short visit this time, arrived last night and back to Germany on Monday morning. Light snow in München when i left, but not here.

Some decent races this afternoon although i have a feeling Newcastle and Bangor will be abandoned due to adverse weather down there, if not, the courses could resemble the Oxfoed/Cambridge boat race.

I only had a single bet yesterday (also my nap in the comps) Nassalam in the novice chase, readers know i like this one and i put it up for his previous win. Won easily, but luck is an understatement (watch the VR) so perhaps i should play the local lottery later.

Looking through the cards earlier i made a few mental notes, but i'm waiting to see what's on/off. Matt will be on soon to inform us.

There is a match at Doncaster 4.28 and i was surprised to see the betting so close, i feel Jacamar should be shorter and is the likely winner, consequently i layed the PN runner Flic Ou Voyou at a tad over evens earlier. He didn't look that good on chase debut LTO and although both are half-decent hurdle handicappers (closely matched on ratings) i think his sole rival will have too much pace for him.

I noticed WPM still has three entries in the Tingle Creek next weekend, Chacun Pour Soi, Energumene and Allaho. If all these run will will eat my socks, ante-post punters beware.

Alan/Trusty

Thank you for the posts, always good to read.

On the topic of ground conditions, there's an old adage that class horses can run/win on any going, i don't subscribe to this althought the likes of Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and Frankel would disagree. Nevertheless as we all know some trainers are averse to running their decent ones on anything without soft in the going description at this time of the year and 'wrapped in cotton wool' is often quoted.

Of course welfare has improved over the years, and rightly so (for horses, not trainers Wink) but go back in time and we used to see 'hard' that basically rode like the M4. If i remember Bath was one such course in the summer months due to no watering system there.

Good luck with your selections Trusty.

More later, but i'm meeting a friend for lunch at 13.00, so not sure how much racing i will see.
Report TheAnorak November 27, 2021 10:00 AM GMT
Snowing heavily now in Swindon and settling in my garden - enough already to put racing at risk if they get the same and the radar showsd it heading in their direction.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 27, 2021 10:39 AM GMT
Alan,

When i first read your post, i thought you had typed Snowing heavily in Sweden and settling in my garden

A fair bit of travelling to watch your horses, but you could run them at Jägersro or Bro Park. Wink
Report doorman99 November 27, 2021 12:29 PM GMT
Well done Trusty
Report Lucky Luciano November 27, 2021 12:29 PM GMT
WD Trusty
Was at Newbury and backed Elle est belle last time remember Skelton said post race he was annoyed with himself for not getting enough work into her, which proved to be the case as would have won anyway today
Glad NTT got up apparently OK
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 28, 2021 10:08 AM GMT
Good chilly morning Guys (-2c)

It appears the weather will play a major part in racing this afternoon with Carlisle off and an inspection at Leicester at 10.30. Fairyhouse looks safe and there is a decent group card at Auteuil although no GB/Irish interest that i could see.

I plan to go to one of Linköpings several sportsbars and watch Bristol City in the midday kick off if they show it. I'm only interested in backing one at Fairyhouse anyway  to pay for a decent lunch and a couple of drinks, not Honeysuckle, but Fil Dor in the 12.35. Odds-on are not for everyone, but he looked a decent juvenile when winning very impressively LTO. May not have beaten much that day, but he couldn't have won any easier and looked above average.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Trusty

WD on your selections, hope you made a nice few bob.

My lunch date yesterday turned into all afternoon so i didn't see any ITV racing at all and my only bet was in the match race at Doncaster (i watched the VR). When Jacamar took the lead 3 out and was travelling better than his his sole rival i would have expected him to pull away, but he was disappointing and didn't find anything at all, to her credit Bryony got the eventual winner back up.

Alan

Are you attending Sandown next weekend ?
Report happysandwich November 28, 2021 12:50 PM GMT
Well done Andrew - bon appetite

I only won a beef-burger and it looked like I was going to be doing the washing up with 50yds to go.Laugh

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Fil Dor
1.60
£50.00
£30.12
Ref: 251943516101 Matched: 12:33 28-Nov-21
Report TheAnorak November 28, 2021 2:18 PM GMT
Andrew,

Getting there presents a problem:

3 December – 6 December 2021 – full weekend closure between junctions 6 and 8/9

The M4 will be closed in both directions over the weekend of 3 December – 6 December 2021 between Junctions 6 (Slough-Windsor) and 8/9 (Maidenhead). The closure will start after 8pm Friday 3 December and the motorway will reopen by 6am on Monday 6 December.

I could use a longer route via the M3 or M40, but with the first race at 12:05, that would mean leaving home before I've woken up!
Report happysandwich November 28, 2021 2:34 PM GMT
^
Alan,

Have your breakfast before you go to bed, it’s a time saver.
Report Lucky Luciano November 28, 2021 7:39 PM GMT
“Have your breakfast before you go to bed, it’s a time saver” Laugh
And go to bed in your clothes
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 28, 2021 9:16 PM GMT
Happysandwich,

The result was never in doubt. Laugh

Seriously, i always thought he was going to win on the run-in, but he was more workmanlike than anything else and i expected better to be honest. The field didn't look much, not to grade 3 standard at least, but this is often the case in these typical Irish juvenile events and the front two pulled away. I was surprised at the BSP (1.77 ?) much better than i envisaged this morning and higher than i backed it at.

Alan

OK i understand. I don't have such travelling issues arriving in Gatwick but i do need to take a PCR test and isolate before the result (thank you Boris) so i will try to get it done on arrival.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 28, 2021 9:18 PM GMT
Forgot to mention, WD on the bet Happysandwich Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 29, 2021 1:27 PM GMT
Good afternoon Guys from a dismal and snowy München.

Arrived back earlier after a short weekend in Linköping (Lucky Luciano, no i didn't wash the windows this time Wink).

The new covid variant appears to be creating a stir here, normally on arrival from Sweden i pass through the 'Schengen' area of immigration without stopping but it was different this morning. Immigration officers were actually waiting as we came off the passenger air bridge and they were checking everyone, presumably as we were coming from Schiphol (transit). I was OK, i have EU residency and i'm dual vaccinated anyway, but the English speaking couple in front of me were being asked a lot of questions. I didn't hang around to find out what happened to them, but i guess they got thruogh in the end.

This new variant is probably going to create more issues for travellers and i'm off to UK on Thursday to meet up with a few posters for the Tingle Creek weekend, or at least i think i will be (new controls in UK).I'm working remote, so part of this afternoon will be trying to find where i can get an approved PCR test close to Gatwick and a quick result as i have to self isolate before it.

If this is all a test from God he's starting to try my patience. Laugh

On to racing, i only flipped through the cards earlier but i thought the favourite Famous Bridge was a reasonable lay selection in Ayr 1.40. Ran well enough in 2nd place LTO (may have been 3rd if one hadn't RO). Only raced on heavy/soft and on right handed tracks. This looks a decent field for the class and is certainly no gimme. I layed at 2.78 and he's only a tad higher now, but is short enough in the betting in my opinion.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
Report second again November 29, 2021 1:50 PM GMT
Unlucky Andrew the 2nd did not jump the last well and it cost it the race(I had backed the 2nd earlierSad).
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 29, 2021 1:54 PM GMT
Second Again

I thought the eventual runner-up was going to stay on and win (1.11 IR) but as you say a less than fluent leap at the last probably cost it.

I should have stayed in the city instead of going home. Laugh
Report happysandwich November 29, 2021 2:13 PM GMT
I was going to Lay it to win a tenner @ 4.60 but Mrs H convinced me to leave the race alone and get just as much excitement watching it.
She was right and saved me £36.

Where do fellers like us find girls like her? Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 29, 2021 2:15 PM GMT
Happysandwich

You could have let me know Laugh
Report happysandwich November 29, 2021 2:26 PM GMT
^
SHE could have let you know Laugh
Report doorman99 November 29, 2021 7:36 PM GMT
Andrew, please keep us informed on the Gatwick PCR rigmarole and the results turnaround timeframe, very useful info for some of us. Ta.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 29, 2021 8:45 PM GMT
Doorman99,

Sure, will do.

I was looking into it in more detail this afternoon. Basically it's similar to my last visit in October except on this occasion i have to isolate after arrival until a negative PCR test result (i arrive in Gatwick at 10.45). I found a test centre in Victoria that claim to send a result by 23.59 the same day in some cases although under 24 hours is the norm (cost £69). Travelling to the test centre is obviously permitted.

Where i work (German DLR) i can go to the office but i have to self-test with HR first, so i could ask them to give me a kit i can use on Thursday before i fly. Of course it's not valid in UK but at least it gives me the security of knowing i'm OK on the day. If i failed the PCR it's 10 days isolation over there ....... and no Tingle Creek. Wink
Report doorman99 November 30, 2021 8:23 PM GMT
Thats excellent news Andrew, much faster turnaround than I was expecting, very pleasing, better get the holiday brochures out again.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 1, 2021 9:49 AM GMT
Good sunny morning Guys,

Doorman99

The link below is the company i will use for a PCR test tomorrow although i will go to Reigate, not Victoria now (same cost £69). I have an appointment at lunchtime so assuming my flight is not significantly delayed i should be OK.

I can post when the actual result is received. The same day would be great, but mid-morning the following day will at least allow me to go to Sandown. As usual a PLF (passenger locator form) has to be filled in prior to departure.

https://dam-health.com/
Report TheAnorak December 1, 2021 8:45 PM GMT
Some of you may remember posts in July about trying to buy a horse at the Newmarket Sales - Cochise was one specifically mentioned and his £42k price tag (my limit for him was £16k) looks money thrown away on what he's done since.

There were two other horses that we bid for, with different ideas for them, but essentially they would have raced on the flat. One ended up in Ireland where it's run twice in maiden hurdles and once at Dundalk - he's called Desert Friend and was sold from the Simcock stable. The other went to the small Cotswold NH stable of David Jeffreys - he's called Al Muffrih, a one time useful performer for Haggas, but entered for the sale from Stuart Williams yard. My trainer spoke to Williams and was warned off Al Muffrih, as highly temperamental and very difficult to train, with only two speeds on the gallops, zero Mph or 100 Mph. He did concede that a move away from Newmarket might help, but his comments meant we only bid to £10k and he sold for £13k.

Now, in a development you couldn't have dreamed up, Al Muffrih and Desert Friend will meet in a 2m 1f maiden hurdle at, of all places, Sedgefield! It's the first race there on Friday and it will be fascinating to see whether Al Muffrih is a reformed character.
Report second again December 3, 2021 1:26 PM GMT
I hope any of you who are meeting up at Sandown tomorrow enjoy it and have a winning day.Cool
Report gazza66 December 3, 2021 3:13 PM GMT
TheAnorak, if going by today’s result it appears you were lucky that your price limits were beaten for Al Muffrih and Desert Friend beaten 21 lengths and 38 1/4 lengths respectively.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 3, 2021 8:31 PM GMT
Good evening Guys,

Thank you for the posts.

I finally received a negative PCR result earlier today, a little under 24 hours the test centre stipulated, albeit too late for me to meet up at Sandown this afternoon. They also stated that in some cases you can receive a result the same day, but i guess you need an early appointment (mine was 12.50 yesterday and the email arrived 12.11). The process was easy enough, but hanging around in a hotel room waiting for an email is frustrating.

I'm not sure how much checking is actually done with respect to self-isolation (very little probably) but i left my hotel before 12.11 as i wanted to get into Crawley before the 13.15 race (i'm in a Gatwick airport hotel). It was a good move as the favourite who i particularly wanted to back romped in although it was expected at 4/9. It's nice to win with 'cash in hand' in a Korals shop Happy

I had a self-test before flying over yesterday so i knew i was negative anyway, we are used to doing this in Germany, i'm not allowed into the office without one.

The UK process is faulted anyway, i could have been carrying covid on a 90 minute flight with 150 odd passengers from München, passing through a couple of major airports and travelling on public transportation to a hotel but not having to test for 2 days. Surely it's better to prove a negative test before being allowed to board a flight, as i had to when returning from Italy after the England v Ukraine in the Summer. Never mind, all done now and at least i can go to Sandown for the Tingle Creek meeting tomorrow.

Alan

What a coincidence and as mentioned you couldn't have dreamt it up. It doesn't look as though Al Muffrih is a reformed character on this afternoons evidence, at least not yet, so as Gazza intimated you could have been lucky not getting involved.

When is Atheeb running again ?.

Second Again

Thanks. A few of us are meeting up tomorrow although there will be one absentee at least. It looks a decent card, a pity Shishkin isn't running (maybe not at Kempton later this month either) but the main event is still a very good field. I noticed PN has a runner partly owned by the Andy Stewart family in the opener, a race named after the illustrious owner who died less than 3 months ago.

I may post some muses in the morning after a decent cooked breakfast.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report Davros December 3, 2021 9:41 PM GMT
"TheAnorak, if going by today’s result it appears you were lucky that your price limits were beaten for Al Muffrih and Desert Friend beaten 21 lengths and 38 1/4 lengths respectively."

Gazza - I imagine it's like avoiding a losing bet because it's shorter than your tissue price - but on steroids and more public.
Report TheAnorak December 4, 2021 8:28 AM GMT
Difference is that I wouldn't have been running either of those horses over hurdles, they would have been kept to the flat. The one I did buy, Atheeb, probably won't run again until the turf flat season. I have a very specific race in mind for him, but it's a long way off.
Report GEORGE.B December 4, 2021 8:50 AM GMT
Desert Friend  (IRE) 11/2
Henry Brooke
Denis Gerard Hogan
5    114    –    37    –    –   
Led, headed and prominent 3rd, weakened quickly on extended run to last (jockey said gelding stopped quickly; vet said gelding was displaying signs of heat stress) (op 17/2 tchd 5/1 and tchd 10/1)

The north east in December, that's global warming for ya
Report TheAnorak December 4, 2021 9:07 AM GMT
Moving on to Sandown today, some jockey info for anybody planning to take the short price about Chacun Pour Soi. Patrick Mullins has never ridden at Sandown before - in fact all his rides this side of the Irish Sea have been at Aintree and Cheltenham.

Those visits have produced 8 winners from 96 rides, and the majority of those eight have been against other amateurs or in cross country races at Cheltenham. In his entire career in Ireland, he's ridden in just 13 chases over todays trip. Is that profile you want for an odds on shot in a Grade 1 chase?
Report second again December 4, 2021 9:35 AM GMT
I agree TheAnorak, plus beaten the only time he has ran in England.My wallet will be lighter if he wins.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 4, 2021 10:13 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the posts.

Alan

Valid points and i actually looked through the form in detail last night. I didn't pick up on his UK rides, but i did notice he has never ridden the horse.

Best in the race, but we know this is not always a given. I think the bet is 2TBP on Nube Negra at around the same odds, but no big bets at Sandown for me this afternoon, more of a day out. I would have been a backer of Shishkin.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report GLASGOWCALLING December 4, 2021 10:15 AM GMT
Enjoy your day All, hope the weather Gods smile on you. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 5, 2021 10:44 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Thank you for the posts.

A nice afternoon at Sandown yesterday with a couple of Betfair players (one a newbie to the site) and their wives. Unfortunately another 2 had to cancel although this was known in advance but there will be other times of course.

A decent enough card and the Tingle Creek chase ensured a sell-out crowd but the latter was responsible for long queues in the premier class bar (this actually did me a favour) and i heard several angry complaints. To be fair, the bar crew appeared to be understaffed and there was no real organisation.

It was sunny early afternoon and quite pleasant, but did get a bit chilly later, so much so i had to wear a freebie Betfair scarf on top of the less conspicuous one i was already wearing.

As Shishkin was not running (i bought my ticket in October) i was only fun betting, but it made for a nice afternoon chatting with the party and without the stress of lumping on an odds-on chance (although i really feel he would have won comfortably given an on day).

It looks as though Nicky Henderson may have found another decent one for the Supreme in the well backed Constitution Hill who looked the winner at the 2nd last and was quite impressive. What he beat is open to question, but he certainly looked good to my eye. Mind you there's 3 months left so a little early to be speaking of Cheltenham. I was at Sandown when Altior won the TC in 2018 and Nicky won the opener on that day with a well backed NH debutant (never won again).

My first Sandown bet was not until the 4th race (Henry VIII) on Third Time Lucki who was going well down the back straight (short IR ?) but at the final bend it was clear the eventual winner Ewardstone was travelling much the better and couldn't have won any easier.

The betting Gods were certainly looking down on me for the TC, i was in a queue with one of our group getting a round of drinks and i wasn't going to leave it after waiting so long. As a consequence i didn't have a bet in race and only saw glimpses of it on the screen. I would have lost, albeit only 50 max, probably a 2TBP on Nube Negra who was poor, but not as much as the 8/13 favourite, i never thought he would be that short. Did WPM send the wrong one over ? (3 entered initally, 2 running this afternoon).

I was discussing this race with Brian (Ed Thompsons buddy) when i arrived at the course and we both agreed it was nowhere near a good thing, although i did think it would probably win. Ed, if you're looking it, nice to see you again and have a chat. I copped the 'refreshment' from the Betfair tent. Wink

I only had 3 bets on course (all on tote) and one of those was at Chepstow in the opener (paid 2.20). My only other bet was a tenner EW on the last winner (8/1 and same on the tote) so it turned out to be a profitable afternoon.

A nice, fun afternoon and thanks to those that were in the party. Same again early next year hopefully with the other 3 (maybe 4) also in attendance (5 if my lucky charm daughter comes).

My last day in UK, i'm on a flight back to München late afternoon but i will go into Crawley for lunch, pick up a few English Christmas foods and watch a few Irish races in a shop.

Maybe more later if i stop for a coffee ('m acutally posting legally here, no VPN required).

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Alan

A good spot and post ref the jockey on Chacun, WD.

Glasgow

You made post number 2000 on this thread yesterday. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 5, 2021 11:19 AM GMT
Think that should be reply number 2000
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 6, 2021 11:11 AM GMT
Good afternoon Guys,

A suggested lay this afternoon is Gun Merchant (Musselburgh 1.45). Inconsistent. Regressed in the ratings since leaving Gordon Elliott last year but did win LTO after a wind operation that appears to have worked. Having said that it wasn't a good field (better today) there were only 4 runners, he didn't win by far after front running and mistakes by the rest certainly helped his cause.

The win was on good and it's G/S this afternoon, he's up 3 lb and down in trip slightly. Musselburgh is also different in configuration and direction than Newcastle (LTO) and he has run over this course before without troubling the judge.

Current odds of 2/1-9/4 are short enough (i layed earlier).

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
Report PHS December 6, 2021 11:52 AM GMT
^still morning hereSilly
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 6, 2021 12:03 PM GMT
PHS

Sorry, i arrived back last night and it was afternoon when i typed it Wink
Report Lampus December 6, 2021 1:51 PM GMT
W/D   ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report happysandwich December 6, 2021 1:57 PM GMT
Nice one Andrew

Stone last - that’s how we like them.
Report PHS December 6, 2021 3:32 PM GMT
WD Andrew. Your post sent it drifting out though and it was nowhere near 9/4 when I posted above.
Report PHS December 6, 2021 3:36 PM GMT
THE SCOTTISH RACING ACADEMY CHRISTMAS JUMPER NOVICES' HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 5)

Following the race, the Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination, during routine testing of GUN MERCHANT, which started favourite and finished sixth of six finishers, revealed the gelding to be lame on its left fore.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 6, 2021 4:24 PM GMT
Thanks for the comments Guys.

Always prominent, but weakened quickly after the 3rd last finishing a long way back of those that finished (5 didn't). Maybe the PHS post explains it, but the winner looks well handicapped, jumped nicely and can go in again. I suspect the soft going will be put foward as a reason for improvement.

PHS

2/1 and 9/4 with the books and 3.65 on BF when i posted at 11.11 (i layed at 3.50 before typing). A pity about the odds drift, it takes the gloss off, but out of my control of course. Hopefully the horse is OK (thanks for the Veterinary post).
Report Lucky Luciano December 6, 2021 8:11 PM GMT
Evening Andrew,

You might remember I mentioned a horse called Blairgowrie, heavily backed last time running on over 2m at Sandown and has been favourite on all three runs.

I was looking at different syndicates a few months back and this one was available for £6,500 per share with 25 shares. Cost covering all expenses for first year with additional sum for subsequent years.
I thought I would follow the horse to see how anyone taking a share would get on.

Anybody taking an interest must have been a bit disappointed with the last time run but being out of Goldcupwinner**** may want further than the 2m he has run over so far.

Blairgowrie is back out tom 12.00 Uttoxeter over a more suitable trip 2.4M presently 11/4 with the books, if  as good as they might think, backed off the books last time and favourite for all three runs must run a big race. Entered 3 times this week 12.50 Warwick Thurs and 13.03 Doncaster Friday over 3m
if you get a chance to have a look any opinion appreciated.
Cheers
Report TheAnorak December 7, 2021 8:56 AM GMT
Coincidentally, an unraced 3-y-old full sister to Blairgowrie is being sold at Goffs this morning and will probably go through the ring about an hour before the Uttoxeter race.

The only winner produced by the mare seemed to prefer good ground, so conditions today may not be ideal for Blairgowrie.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 7, 2021 8:57 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Lucky

I certainly do remember us discussing the horse on Saturday although i had forgotten it was running this afternoon (Red wine and age maybe played a part Wink). I guess you've already done a little research anyway so some of the facts below will be known to you; nevertheless my thoughts follow these.

Ted Walsh purchased it as a foal for €19,000 at Tattersals (Ireland) in November 2016 and it was subsequently sold at the same venue for €150,000 in June 2019.

Sent to Nicky for training under the ownership of Thomas Barr (who now has a horse with Paul Nicholls, Highland Hunter).

Ran in a couple of egg and spoon bumpers at Warwick, both over 16f. Form of his debut run (finished 3rd) is working out well, the winner was Might I (won since) and we saw him in the opener at Sandown on Saturday behind a decent type in the Nicky trained Constitution Hill. The runner-up at Warwick has also won since, as has the 3rd, so overall form appears to be reliable (in the context of this race).

His next run was in a similar class race (again finishing 3rd) but nothing has come out of it at all.

Given a break and sold to Highclere (couldn't find any price details). As you mentioned it's now a syndicate horse (25 x £6500) and all lots are sold. Nicky stated he was keen for the horse to remain the yard although he's hardly likely to turn it down.

Made his hurdle debut in a class 4 16f maiden at Sandown last month finishing 4th beaten just under 10L. Similarly with Might I, the winner ran well last Saturday only just being denied at Aintree in a class 3 novice hurdle, although the runner-up has been well beaten since (this run could be ignored).

Stayed on strongly at Sandown and it was a reasonable debut run; improvment is almost guaranteed.

We can be sure of a couple of things, he will not be racing over 16f again and will probably improve going chasing later. Looks to be a stayer in the making and this is borne out by the 3 entries this week, upped in trip considerably (one of them 24.5f).

Uttoxeter is the chosen venue this afternoon and i don't immediately think of Nicky and Nico at this course (they have a better winning strike rate at Warwick). A sharp course shouldn't be an issue, but you need a horse that travels well here. Nicky has sent 4 to the course this afternoon.

Interesting that he was withdrawn from a race at Haydock in March 24th, the reasoning based on 'unsuitable ground' (good to soft) although i tend to ignore such comments by trainers. The going this afternoon was initially envisaged to be the same, but i noticed it's now designated as soft by the RP.

OK the bottom line, is it a back or lay. I would never sway anyone from either, it's a game of opinions anyway and as with my lay selections, i simply put up how i see it and readers form their own.

The step up in trip is almost certainly a positive.

It's not a bad field by any means and a couple have a better RPR. Only one winner in the race (restricted to one time winners) the Harry Skelton trained mare Get A Tonic but the 7lb allowance is offset by the same amount as a penalty. A few decent stables are represented.

Is it running with a handicap rating in mind.

Lets ignore fun betting to base any confidence level on. I wouldn't lay at the current 11/4, but i may have done if it was 5/4. It's been well backed in all 3 runs and could be today of course.

Would i back at 11/4, probably not, but that doesn't mean i don't think it can win, it can of course. A bit of fence sitting that really isn't useful, but it's a race i wouldn't have had too much interest in before you posted anyway.

If i had to make a choice of back or lay, i have to be honest and say the latter but i don't plan to (unless it's 5/4 of course Wink). Good luck if you back it, i hope he wins for you and i will certainly watch the race now (working remote at home today).

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 7, 2021 9:02 AM GMT
Morning Alan and thanks for the post.
Report TheAnorak December 7, 2021 11:03 AM GMT
The full sister led out unsold at 14,500 euros - i.e a 15,000 reserve not met. Of the first 24 lots offered, they've only managed to find buyers for 7 of them. The live pictures from Goffs show an arena that is almost completely deserted apart from the auction staff!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 7, 2021 7:20 PM GMT
Alan,

I wouldn't have a clue what to look for in an unraced, young horse at the sales, but unsold at reserve of €15,000 basically tells its own story.

Mind you that could be cheap considering the other one was considered worth paying out 10 x that amount before he had even set foot on a racecourse. I couldn't find any info what Highclere paid for it (maybe a private sale)

Hopefully Lucky didn't back Blairgowrie in the end and i suspect this to be correct based on WhatsApp messages. Drifted from the early 11/4 to 7/2 in the morning and higher on course (9/2 SP). Lowest matched pre-race odds that i saw was 3.85. Ran OK, but was one paced after the last.
Report Trusty December 7, 2021 7:31 PM GMT
Good evening, can I ask you knowledgeable gents a question please?

In the first race at Hexham tomorrow, Lucinda Russel runs Sutton Manor, who off 100 I fancied e/w at around 20/1, but because he is running within 7 days he has to run off his old mark of 105. Why as a trainer would you run tomorrow rather than waiting for his new mark?

I am not playing because of the unrevised mark but just curious?
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 7, 2021 7:59 PM GMT
Evening Trusty

I honestly don't know, next question please. Laugh

Seriously, maybe it's because his 3 wins have come on heavy going (will be tomorrow) and he ran well enough in 3rd over a longer trip at the course 3 runs ago off a mark of 112.

Local owners ?

Certainly regressed over the years, he ran off 142 when he was 5th in the Pertemps Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2017.

He wouldn't be a forlorn hope tomorrow.
Report Trusty December 7, 2021 8:19 PM GMT
Off 100 I would definitely have been playing but if you run off 105 tomorrow and win, I guess even if you got a 7lb rise that would only put you back on 107 but for a horse that hasn't won for 4 years and perhaps you finally have it down to a winnable mark surely you would want that extra 5lb. I may play for a place at 5/1; she has a 66% place strike rate in the race.

Thanks for your reply.
Report Lucky Luciano December 7, 2021 9:19 PM GMT
Evening all,
Thanks Andrew and Alan for all your input re my post on Blairgowrie.
Just got home from work via the pub and watched the race without knowing the result.
Didn't have a bet and at no time did I feel that I might regret that, ran well but winner was much too good 
Like Andrew said maybe they have handicaps in mind.
Regards the amount they paid in 2019 150k euro I guess looking a tad expensive now
Report TheAnorak December 7, 2021 9:21 PM GMT
Two possible explanations - first is that she made the declaration on Monday not knowing about the 5lb drop. Second is that the horse is considered suited to Hexham and this trip, and this is the last meeting at Hexham until mid March. In fact there are only four meetings within about two hundred miles of her stable between now and Xmas and I can only see one other race he would have qualified for, a 0-105 handicap hurdle at Musselburgh on Dec 20th.
Report happysandwich December 7, 2021 9:53 PM GMT
Woo Hoo !!

Leyton Orient 4 – 1 Swindon Town

♫ Four one to the Orient

Four one to the Orient


Touch yer toes – up the O’s Laugh
Report Trusty December 8, 2021 7:25 AM GMT
Thanks for your reply Anorak. I guess there are never that many meetings close when you train so far north. I am going to miss the race as I have a badly arranged dentist appointment!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 8, 2021 8:41 AM GMT
Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the posts.

One horse i feel can be backed this afternoon is The Gary Moore trained Naturally High (Lingfield 2.00). I saw this one win at Sandown on Saturday but didn’t back it even after saying to one of our group it looks well handicapped. Won nicely and looked the winner before the 2nd (going well). Has won at Lingfield and likes soft (trainers explanation for improved form in his penultimate race).

A half-decent flat horse in France, won a listed race and even ran in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) and Prix Niel (Arc trial). Out of his depth in both but was only 16/1 and 10/1 respectively to win these races. It wasn’t such a poor run in the latter anyway behind a decent Charlie Appleby winner.

I sense Gary has a Cheltenham festival handicap in mind but will need to get his mark up a little. Won off 100 on Saturday and although carrying a 7 lb penalty, the handicapper has raised him 8 lb to 108 (effectively a lb well in).

Has to give a fair bit of weight away to his main rival, but i feel he’s much better than a 108 rating and is still well-handicapped. It looks a very winnable race to me.

Odds of 1.88 are not for everyone  (i backed higher last night although there is a small RF due to a NR) but i thought he would be shorter.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 8, 2021 8:53 AM GMT
Going changed to heavy and another NR, now 1.70
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 8, 2021 8:57 AM GMT
before the 2nd last (going well).
Report happysandwich December 8, 2021 10:35 AM GMT
^^^
Just about to get my betting boots on. Sad
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 8, 2021 12:25 PM GMT
Lay Post

Lingfield 1.00 - Game On For Glory

A 5 year old Fame and Glory Mare trained by Lucy Wadham in Newmarket.

The dam had plenty of runs under both codes with only a sole flat win to show for it.

Form figures of 222-1 look good, albeit all in bumpers and is making her hurdle debut this afternoon. The overall form of these races is mixed although it looks to be reliable and one of those who finished just behind her (Get A Tonic) has improved and won yesterday.

Looking at the breeding it doesn't necesarily scream out 'acts on heavy' that will be the case at Lingfield this afternoon and this course can be very testing in such conditions. She's only raced on good going over 16/17f and will need to be blessed with stamina.

Intially there were 16 runners in the field, but going concerns have resulted in 5 NR's. From the remainder, half of these will struggle to even place but that leave layers with 4 running for them and from decent stables.

Stable is out of form although Lucy does have a decent strike rate at the course.

Whilst her bumper form is good (in the context of this race) conditions will certainly be the oppostite of what she has encountered before and looking at those with a chance of winning, it's not a bad field. Odds of 7/4 are short enough, hence the lay selection.

Lay at 2.80

08-Dec-21
11:56:07    13:00 Lingfield
Game On For Glory - 2m Nov Hrd
Betfair Bet ID 1:252955492143 | Matched: 08-Dec-21 11:59:08    Lay    2.80    50.00    --    90.00
50.00
Matched

Good luck all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden December 8, 2021 12:27 PM GMT
Happysandwich

I really fancied Naturally High and had a decent price.

I haven't posted a PL lay in a while and this one is risky, but most are at these odds.
Report Trusty December 8, 2021 3:17 PM GMT
Sutton Manor needed the other 5lb off and probably the kid back on taking off another 5. Easy front running ride what can go wrong!

U/L with your lay Andrew, haven't watched that race and luckily wasn't back in time from dentist.
Report tanglefoot December 8, 2021 4:16 PM GMT
When I saw the horses ears flicking back and forth,like it was enjoying the run/ going, knew u were in trouble.Wink
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Wonder

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