Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
02 Jan 21 07:57
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,195 | Blogger:'s blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Show More
Report August 29, 2021 11:31 AM BST
although a few GB trainers send over runners to Deauville
Report TheAnorak August 29, 2021 12:25 PM BST
Thanks for all the positive comments. My view is that Nagano clearly stayed the trip, but wasn't comfortable on the ground. It was noticeable that Egan had to be working on him when they were on the downhill run after the final bend and I didn't feel he was stretching out in the final furlong in the way that he did last time on much softer going. There could be some value on offer if he runs on easier ground next time - there's a 1M 6F Listed race (worth over £100k!) for 3yo at Ascot on Oct 1st.

Good to see that Andrew has absorbed my teaching that the payout is the same, whether it's a head or twenty lengths. I experienced both sides of that coin yesterday, as a heavy backer of Daneh in the 1:50. So Dancing King/Nagano was not so much filling the boots, as getting them repaired!
Report August 30, 2021 9:11 AM BST
Good 'sunny' morning Guys,

So much for yesterdays post, 3 selections, but only one paid out. Whilst i got the lay of Sublimis (Deauville) correct with a 3rd @ 23/10, my other suggestion Banshee (Yarmouth) won @ 6/4. My attempt to find a winner and increase odds of promotion in the naps competition took a hit with Rhoscolyn only finishing 3rd in the only GB group race of the day. Drifted from the moment i put it up (SP 18/5). Never really threatened to win, but stayed on behind an easy winner and the winning time was good.

C'est la vie, that's racing. A losing day, albeit only double figues and i wasn't bothered to increase the lay of Sublimis later, although that was probably the way to go, he's yet to win a group race.

I picked out a potential lay before breakfast and actually sent it to one of my WhatsApp contacts, but having been matched at 3.20 (not by me) has drifted beyond 4. The horse in question is Charming Kid (Wolverhampton 3.15) once trained by Richard Fahey and a group race performer as a 2 year old, but since moved to Dean Ivory.

Going back to his original mark (105) in 2019 he has regressed significantly, there is only one race where he ran off a mark higher than his previous run and that was in November 2020. He's now rated 77. To be fair he has run well enough on a couple of runs this season (the last one after a break) but his runner-up spot LTO was in a small field of 5 where the placers finished in a heap. The winner has since finished last of 7 and the 3rd home 11th of 13. The form of his penultimate race is also questionable, the winner has not won in 10 subesequent races and the runner up in 8.

There's no doubt he will blitz a trail here and there's a risk he could have dropped to a winnable mark, but he hasn't run well on the Tapeta before (twice) and i think one or two of his rivals will pick him up this afternoon.

Morning Alan,

Correct, i remember mentioning i got lucky once as a lay was beaten in a photo, but you pointed out it wasn't lucky and it pays the same as a 20L beating.

WD with the recovery on Saturday.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
Report Lucky Luciano August 30, 2021 2:04 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew,

In other news

Definitely no trip to the Arc next month now as morning flight cancelled, at least I can get refund from Easyjt

Paris Charles de Gaulle trip (K21SWSQ)
03 October 2021 - 03 October 2021
Sun, 03 October 2021 (London Gatwick 18:00 to Paris Charles de Gaulle 20:25)
We’re sorry that we’ve had to cancel your original flight and move you onto an alternative flight, and for any inconvenience this may cause you.
If you're happy with these changes, simply redownload your boarding pass.
If you no longer wish to travel, you can switch to another easyJet flight for free, choose a voucher for the value of your ticket, or request a refund.

The UK Govt rules stated below made it a bit of a faff anyway
If you are returning to the UK within 3 days, you can use the result of a COVID-19 test that you take in the UK before you travel. You must use a private test provider for the test and not an NHS test.
The service on which you will arrive back in the UK must set off for the UK within 3 days of when you took the test.

Good luck with lay if you do get matched
Report August 31, 2021 12:55 PM BST
Afternoon Lucky/Guys,

Sorry to read the cancellation of your Paris flight and subsequently no Arc visit, it looks to be a good field this year as well. A pity, it would have been good to meet up. Thankfully i don’t have Easyjet or UK covid rules to consider, or at least not yet with the latter. I plan to come to London in September/October (still have a BA voucher to use before April 2022) but i don’t want hassle with PCR tests as i’ve been vaccinated twice. I was under the impression it was OK travelling from Germany but i will check it when the time comes. The Middle Park at Newmarket would have been an option (i like Perfect Power) but it’s too close to Arc date and the Dewhurst is on the following weekend from the latter so i may wait. There’s always Ascot champions day, but that’s almost 7 weeks away.

Didn’t the MP and Dewhurst used to be run on the same day back in time ?

I’m still going to the Arc, although no ticket or flights booked yet. I’m off to Longchamp next week for the Arc trials on the Sunday, course ticket and Lufthansa flights already booked. Hopefully Adayar wins the Prix Neil otherwise it could be an expensive weekend. Some good group races on the  day and incredible value at only 15 euros a course ticket in the winning post stand.

Unfortunately i did get finally matched on Charming Kid (won by a fast diminishing nose and a short head). It was always a risk anyway, he was sure to lead, but i was happy to take it on and it almost paid off (another stride and he was beaten). C’est la vie.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report TheAnorak August 31, 2021 2:22 PM BST

Middle Park and Dewhurst were historically two weeks apart - MP run at the Cambridgeshire meeting, Dewhurst on the Friday of the Cesarewitch/Champion Stakes meeting.

This changed when Ascot took over the Champion Stakes and we were given Champions Day, and in their wisdom, the idiots in charge put both races on the same day. Newmarket eventually sorted things out and now the two week gap is back.
Report Lucky Luciano August 31, 2021 9:17 PM BST
Hi Andrew,
Its the 100th running of the ARC this year, would have been good to go but wasn't to be once again. Same here re having to have tests to travel. Instead today applied for tickets for Friday 8th Oct at Newmarket with five group races on (Dewhurst is following day) so a possible if you come over.
May even be able to get Happysandwich out for the day as its just up the M11 for him.
Report September 1, 2021 8:39 PM BST
Good evening Guys,


Thanks for the clarification. I had a feeling there was a period when both races were run on the same day even though AOB won them with US Navy Flag a few years ago. I like the Dewhurst as a race, the roll call of winners since Nijinsky is almost a history of the greats.

I noticed you have an entry at Kempton on Saturday. He ran well over CD LTO and off the same mark and down in class could go close. Good luck.


The Newmarket meeting sounds good although i plan to return to Germany (from Longchamp) on the Monday evening (no flights booked yet) so it's quite close. Mind you i did a similar thing in 2018 (MP and Arc within 8 days) for Ten Sovereigns and Enable.

Quarantine in UK is not an issue, but from what i understand i have to take a PCR test before and after arrival in UK. I don't need anything for Germany as i'm fully vaccinated. I really need to get over sometime as i have a winning bet (US election) to pick up that was placed in October, the last time i was over.

I doubt Happysandwich would go although Newmarket is not too far for him as you mentioned, but he has minor health issues.

Some good news on Arc trials day, Snowfall is entered in the Prix Vermeille; it's building up to be a really good days racing, i can't wait.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report TheAnorak September 3, 2021 9:26 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

Yes, Love Dreams tomorrow at Kempton, 4:25, and the hope is that this drop into a 0-75 can produce a win. He's been pretty consistent this year and he's proven over C+D. I also acquired a potential replacement/addition this week from Newmarket sales, a 4-y-old called Atheeb, bought privately after he failed to reach his reserve at auction.  Hope to run him later this month.

Just to add that I'm also planning to be at Newmarket on Oct 8th, one of my favourite days of the flat season.
Report September 4, 2021 11:07 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

The sport we love (and hate sometimes) caters for most tastes in GB/Ireland with several turf/AW/NH meetings this afternoon, although having said this the races i'm particularly interested in are few and far between.

The Betfair Haydock card provides the quality although i thought Ascot was 'ordinary' for a Saturday meeting at our premier track, but maybe i'm getting too picky. Never mind, Longchamp tomorrow is ample compensation.

Staying with Haydock the main attraction will be on the aptly named favourite Starman in the Sprint Cup (3.30) a race steeped in history (oldies will remember when it was sponsored by Vernons) and won by notable speedsters as Be Friendly and Dayjur in bygone years and more recently by Dream Ahead.

3 year olds have a good record in the race (6 wins in the last 10 years) but i can't see this age group (4 runners) being led into the winners enclosure, although connections of Creative Force may beg to differ.

I was against Starman on here when he finished 3rd at Deauville LTO due to the ground and extended trip, but not so this afternoon. Course, trip and going are in his favour and he's beaten many of the field before. I feel the hype surrounding the horse is a little OTT (at least for now) but he's the likely winner and anything at evens or better is the right price.

Readers know i'm a fan of the mare Chil Chil and i think she could run well and nick a place in the same race. Forget her last run at York, she doesn't have the pace for 5f but was staying on strongly and not beaten far. Needs to improve and has something to find with Starman, but has a good turn of foot to use if close enough in the last furlong. I think she's an EW bet (24 for the win on here) for a small stake.

Starman is one of 3 'shorties' on the card with Lord Glitters (1.45) and Valley Forge (2.20) but i wouldn't be lumping on the latter two, although if i had to choose one to lay it would be the former. A small field and pace could be the key, i suspect Artistic Rifles will make it with the favourite at the rear coming with a late run, but will he get there. Backers should note he hasn't won over 8f since the Queen Anne in 2019. I layed earlier @ 2.80.

In the Old Burrough handicap (2.55) i give an EW chance to Autumn War although he has fluffed his lines at the start in a couple of races recently and it may have cost him a win at Goodwood LTO. Consistent, has run to marks of 86/87 in his last 6 races and trip is ideal. Currently 9.5 for the win.

I have a lay in mind at Wolverhampton this evening and may post it later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.


Good luck with Love Dreams this evening and the same for Atheeb later in the month. Is there a particular type you look for at the sales ? I assume you target one of two beforehand ?

As for Newmarket on October 8th, it wouldn't be impossible for me to attend and i will certainly give it some thought as i mentioned to Lucky. It would be good to meet up with both of you. I will be at the Arc several days earlier, but i've done both meetings before (Newmarket first).
Report Lampus September 4, 2021 11:16 AM BST
Thank you ANDREW Happy
Report second again September 4, 2021 11:27 AM BST
I know you have liked Chil Chil for some time.Pricewise tipping her this morning is unlucky as it will compress the price on here and with the books.I think it will have shaved a point of the place price alone but these things happen.Have a good day.
Report TheAnorak September 4, 2021 11:33 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

I'll reply about the sales tomorrow, but before I set off for Kempton, just to let anybody planning a bet know that we've had an enforced jockey change on Love Dreams. Greatrex has cried off as he's unwell and Hector Crouch will now ride - I'm not aware of any source that supplies details on jockey changes, which seems a bit remiss of the BHA.
Report Macintoshmatty September 4, 2021 1:14 PM BST
My lay at Wolves would be Old Flame in the 600pm
Bad draw, very green on first start and I thought it looked like it would be better over a bigger, less sharp track
I can see it running on too late
The two main dangers on the book are more likely to be out and gone so unless Old Flame can get a good early pitch I'd be against
No idea how the Hills horse will comeback either

Warning , I have been wrong before!

There you go Andrew you can have the day off!!
Report Lampus September 4, 2021 1:50 PM BST
W/D  ANDREW  Happy

Lord  G
Report Macintoshmatty September 4, 2021 2:12 PM BST
well done with Lord G
Report Macintoshmatty September 4, 2021 6:08 PM BST
sorry about Old Flame

I'll get my coat!
Report TheAnorak September 5, 2021 8:56 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

So, the process of buying from auction. I'm looking for any horse up to five years old, that I think we can improve by changing the distance it runs over, or by changing the tactics. Ideally I like to feel that I can see a target we could aim the horse at, a race in the not too distant future. The other category would be a horse that had a physical problem which my trainer felt he could deal with and thus improve the horse in that way. His wife is an ex-international standard dressage rider and tricky horses can benefit from her patience and training in their indoor school.

I had a short list of five for the sale last week, which was reduced to three by the time the sale started - two were withdrawn from the sale. I had tossed out Atheeb after he won last Saturday ar Newmarket, as that change of trip was something I'd considered for him. I was sure that the win would push his price well beyond what I was willing to pay.

Then on Tuesday afternoon, my trainer phoned to tell me that my number one pick (Abstract, a Shadwell 3-y-old from D Weld) had been failed by his vet. She found that the horse had had an unreported wind operation and when he was scoped, she could still see a problem. My number two pick (Taskheer, ex French, also Shadwell) we concluded was going to attract interest from juvenile hurdle buyers and cost too much.

By the time of that call, I had seen that Atheeb had failed to reach his reserve and was marked as 'Lot Not Sold - Make an Offer) on the Tattersalls website. My trainer contacted his trainer, George Boughey, found him very open and helpful, got a good report and after some discussion, a deal was done and the horse became mine. The price was at least 50% below what I would have expected for an 82 rated 4-y-old and the form has been boosted since by the Newmarket runner-up, who won at Haydock on Friday.

Atheeb is now in his new stable, has been checked over, had a quiet canter on the AW gallop, and is 100% OK. Trainer and I remain mystified by the lack of bids for him, but we're delighted to have him. Taskheer sold for 27,000 gns - I might have gone to 22,000 but no higher. My third pick, Into the Fire from W Haggas, made 25,000 gns and my budget for him was 16,000!

As far as my buying is concerned, and I made my first visit to Tattersalls in 1979, patience is the key. Don't get tempted into paying more than you've decided a horse is worth. We spent two days at the Newmarket July sale, looked at a dozen horses, bid for five and every one went over my budget, in some cases by a ridiculous amount. Every purchase is a gamble and if you win a race with half of them, you're doing better than most. And life can get in the way - all the targets and plans I had for Love Dreams were lost to Covid. He was due to have his first run the day after racing shut down in March last year!
Report Macintoshmatty September 5, 2021 10:27 AM BST
Interesting post Anorak, good luck with your purchase
Report September 5, 2021 11:22 AM BST
Good 'sunny' morning Guys,

A short summary of yesterdays post.

The suggested lay Lord Glitters (7/5f) finished 4th of 5. Valley George finished 3rd in the following race although i didn't actually state it as a lay.

Starman lost on a head bob and my EW chance Chil Chil finished 3rd (22/1) beaten 3/4L. I ended up with a small loss on the race but it would have been different if either had won of course, certainly the latter (backed at 26). Kevin Ryan thinks Emaraaty Ana is a good a horse he's trained (and it did win a Gimcrack) but i think Starman would beat him if they meet again although take nothing away from the winner who has improved recently. I knew that Ten Sovereigns was a good one. Wink

Autumn War, my other EW choice probably crossed the line just after the security had closed the course gates.

On to this afternoon and decent cards for a Sunday (albiet some small fields over the jumps) specially at Longchamp with 5 group races (and a listed class) pride of place being the Prix Moulin (2.48) where all eyes will be on Baaeed. The hype associated with this one may be justified but he has to prove it this afternoon and he's not a gimme by any means.

Having seen his runs i think he will win but i'm not backing at 1.54 (nor laying) it's a race to watch really. One thing to note is the highest rated horse he's beaten is El Drame (114) and that one is nothing special although i appreciate he beat him very easily.

I noticed John Leeper is running (1.33) and if this one is anywhere near the High St 6/1 i will be a layer even though i don't play at such odds that often. I think the horse is over-rated, as simple as that, with a little nostalgia of a bygone trainer attached, but sometimes making such statements can jump up and bite you. We will see.

At York (3.15) i think Tabdeed is a lay, albeit risky being the highest rated and a G3 winner last year. On a line through Chil Chil he comes out better than Great Ambassador although the latter has improved in recent races. Gulliver ran well to be runner-up in the Stewards Cup LTO and finished just in front of the latter on opposite side of the track and is 4lb better off. Although outsider of the field around 6/1 all his wins have come over the course and can't be discounted. It's an open race (betting should be closer with all 4) and i can't really see where the pace is coming from, although it is a 6f sprint. I layed earlier at 3.0 and 3.05.


Many thanks for the detailed explanation of your sales MO, much appreciated, interesting and i'm sure others will agree. After you mentioned Atheeb i was curious what made you go for him (i looked at the form and his last VR) hence the question. Getting him for 50% less than envisaged for a typical type is an immediate bonus of course and he's relatively lightly raced for a 4 year old. Good luck.

I've never been to a horse sale (went to White City Greyhounds auctions often enough back in time) and to be honest i wouldn't have a clue what to look for as far as comportment is concerned. I assume most 'newbies' contact a trainer beforehand anyway.

Unlucky with Love Dreams yesterday, ran well in 2nd and it was a good race between all 3 placers in the last 1/2 furlong.


Thank you.

Unlucky with Old Flame but i understand the bad draw comment (7f start close to the bend at Wolverhampton). I had the night off as i was out but my proposed lay drifted anyway.
Report Lampus September 5, 2021 12:06 PM BST
Good Luck   ANDREW  Happy
Report TheAnorak September 5, 2021 12:12 PM BST

One other attraction for Atheeb is the existence of a posible target, i.e the £30k 10F 0-85 at Haydock next Sunday, the final round of the Sunday Series. And just by turning up for that race, he'd be qualified to enter a £25k Jockey Club series final over 10F at Nottingham on Sep 29th.

Whether or not he goes to Haydock will depend on how he settles in, but current info from the trainer is that he's very happy with his condition.

At least one visit to the Tattersalls sales complex in Newmarket should be on the bucket list of any racing fan. The sheer scale of the place is enough to amaze any first time visitor.
Report Lampus September 5, 2021 1:40 PM BST
Well  done   ANDREW  with   John L   easy  peasy  Happy
Report PHS September 5, 2021 1:50 PM BST
Very, very interesting post earlier Alan. Thanks for posting.
Report Lampus September 5, 2021 4:07 PM BST
2/2  ANDREW  HappyHappy

Well  Done
you are on a Cornish roll
Report Brian September 5, 2021 4:51 PM BST
Interesting write up on hose purchases Alan. Good luck with your new purchase.

Some successful lays Andrew, well done.
Report Lucky Luciano September 5, 2021 8:53 PM BST
Good call with the lay and reading of the Lord Glitters race and the lay of Tabdeed today.
Regards the Haydock sprint the horse I'm taking from the race is Happy Romance, his run started from second last, same time as Chil Chil and didnt get the straightest, clear run that CC did, only getting beaten inches for by CC for third place, finished the closest in the race as a 3yo potential for improvement and will be keeping an eye out next time she runs.
Report Lucky Luciano September 5, 2021 8:54 PM BST
*her run
Report September 6, 2021 8:01 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Thanks for the comments yesterday.

Lampus, i only got buttons matched on John Leeper but had a decent laying day all around, specially at Perth.

Looking at the cards earlier i was curious why Attaboy Roy was short in the lucky last (Newcastle 8.30). He ran well enough in 4th (only beaten 1/2L) off 59 over CD 6 races back in an apprentice handicap (3 lb claimer on board) and has been placed here a few times prior to this albeit off lower marks. In 13 races he's been favourite 7 times, but only has a solitary win to show for it.

He's been a little hit and miss since and although first time blinkers may be a benefit, odds of 2/1 certainly don't appeal. Looking at the field this is a lucky pin race and although i think he may make the running, will be outpaced late on, finishing in the minor places again.


Happy Romance wasn't a bad 2 year old beating Alcohol Free no less (G3 at Salisbury) before finishing behind the same filly in the Chevely Park next time out. Wasn't one of the ITV female crew sweet on her pre-race ? Probably just short of top class (as Chil Chil) but either of them could pick up a decent race in time although a little less demanding.

I think the hype surrounding Starman will recede a bit now, i think it was OTT as i pointed out on Saturday morning and when you look at his record, he's actually only ever looked imperious in one race, the July Cup.

The latter part of this week looks good, Doncaster Cup, Flying Childers, Leger, Irish Champion, National stakes and the Arc trials to name a few.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report stu September 7, 2021 1:24 AM BST
Even better pick with Attaboy Roy, totally done out of sight - mad price too.
VWP indeed andrew.
Report September 7, 2021 8:25 AM BST
Morning Stu

Thank you. Attaboy Roy ran worse than i expected (specially for a 2/1 jf) up with the pace for less than 2 furlongs, but weakened tamely and was soon beaten, finishing 7th of 8. If that was a 'true' run he will not be winning soon.
Report September 9, 2021 9:20 AM BST
Lay Post

Doncaster 4.15 - Sinjaari

A 5 year old Camelot gelding trained by Roger Charlton in Beckhampton, Wiltshire. Transferred from William Haggis prior to his previous run.

Dam was a maiden (only 2 runs). 3 offspring producing 3 wins.

A half-decent handicapper (listed class) who has improved since being gelded (December 2019).

Looked to be well handicapped when he won the John Smiths at York (extended 10f) off a mark of 95 over a year ago (raised 8 lb for the win) and although riunning well enough in 5 races since has failed to win. May have been unlucky when he was runner-up LTO at York. Currently rated 107.

Taking a form perspective, he's on a par with 2 rivals (only 2 lb separating the 3 runners) although not best in at the weights. A small field and it may well be a tactical race with Frankie trying to set the fractions up front.

Sinjaari strikes me as the type to need cover in a big field (aka his best runs) with a decent pace, coming with a late run and a small field may not suit him.

Difficult to call the winner and i see this more as 15/8 the 3 runners. At odds of 6/4 in a very open race that could be tactical/pace dependant/not suited, i feel they are too short, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.59

Good luck all

09:14:43    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243584399178 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 09:18:22    Lay    2.66    9.64    --    16.00

09:09:24    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243584239897 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 09:12:47    Lay    2.60    10.09    --    16.14

08:58:01    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243583929927 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 08:58:45    Lay    2.60    0.65    --    1.04

08:51:01    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243583762957 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 08:56:03    Lay    2.58    21.43    --    33.86

08:21:42    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243582997464 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 08:25:32    Lay    2.52    8.19    --    12.45
Report Lampus September 9, 2021 9:57 AM BST
Good Luck ANDREW  Happy
Report hologon September 9, 2021 4:20 PM BST
Well done again Andrew keep on rolling along
Report Early Morning Riser September 9, 2021 4:22 PM BST
Well done Andrew.
Report Macintoshmatty September 9, 2021 5:04 PM BST
well done Andrew
Report Lucky Luciano September 9, 2021 5:10 PM BST
WD Andrew,
Nice to see a close finish go our way, as it was Frankie verses Ryan never a worry Laugh
See your weekend banker is a non runner now, which is a shame
Enjoy your trip anyway
Report Mr_Spreadsheet September 9, 2021 5:45 PM BST
well done Andrew - never in doubt Laugh
Report madhatters September 9, 2021 7:03 PM BST
Report September 10, 2021 10:15 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

Many thanks for the comments after the lay selection race yesterday (2nd @ 11/8 jf) much appreciated.

Frankie made the running at a sedate pace as expected, no surprise there, but i couldn’t believe SP of the winner (7/2). At those odds, i could have dutched the other 2 although easy to say post race. It was a typical good front running ride and he judged it to perfection. Sinjaari had every chance and from what i hear he went short IR, but as mentioned in the reasoning i felt it was the wrong type of race for him although he could win a decent handicap in time.


Correct, Adayar a NR in the Prix Neil due to a hind leg infection, but it’s still a very good group race card and Snowfall is still an intended runner in the Prix Vermeille.

08.30 flight on Saturday morning; i’m even thinking about going to watch PSG play in the afternoon (17.00). I’ve seen some good European teams (including Bayern München) but never a French game. Paying circa 60 euros to see Messi, MBappe and Naymar (assuming they all play) is a bargain. Speaking of bargains, 15 euros for my Longchamp Arc Trials/Sunday ticket with a seat in the winning post stand included !

Newmarket on October 8th is still an option, but i will decide when i return from the Arc.

Mr Spreadsheet

Agreed, i don’t know what all the fuss was for.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Maybe more later.
Report china castle September 10, 2021 1:10 PM BST
Hi Andrew ,

Just to let you know that Messi and Neymar won't be playing tomorrow. They played in the World Cup qualifiers late last night.
Mbappe is also a doubt as he Withdrew from the France squad with a calf injury.
Report September 10, 2021 1:30 PM BST
Hi China,

Many thanks for the PSG info (i wasn't aware) much appreciated. This puts a different slant on the game, it was the chance of watching 3 world cup stars that instigated the initial idea as i will be in Paris anyway. I can decide tomorrow, but it's looking likely that i will give it a miss now. Never mind, i hadn't bought a ticket and Paris is a fun city, c'est la vie.

Good luck.
Report china castle September 10, 2021 1:55 PM BST
No problems Andrew ,

They will still have a good team starting though, it's somewhere I would love to go.

Enjoy your weekend and well done on the lay yesterday Cool
Report TheAnorak September 11, 2021 10:21 AM BST
Morning All,

Here's an interesting puzzle for today - Doncaster 3:00. D'Bai has won 8 times, 6 when ridden by Buick, 1 when ridden by Doyle. Glorious Journey has won 7 times, 5 when ridden by Doyle, 2 when ridden by Buick.

So who decided that today, Buick would be on Glorious Journey and Doyle on D'Bai. Is it purely down to the trainer, or does Buick have first choice and he's given up on D'Bai after his poor return at Newbury? I really like the chances of Glorious Journey in this, but I'd be a lot more confident if Doyle was on board. To bet or not to bet, that is the question!
Report stewarts rise September 11, 2021 11:40 AM BST
Wouldn't have much between Buick and Doyle myself, go with your fancy Anorak
Report happysandwich September 11, 2021 12:51 PM BST
To bet or not to bet, that is the question!

Alas poor Yorick, we know not which.
Report doorman99 September 11, 2021 3:03 PM BST
Hope you stuck with it anorak, well done!
Report stewarts rise September 11, 2021 3:04 PM BST
1-2, could have backed both at earlier prices, vwd Anorak.
Report TheAnorak September 11, 2021 3:08 PM BST
S R,

You're quite right about them being much the same and your comment made me think that perhaps I was being too fussy - so the bet was made. Thank you!
Report stewarts rise September 11, 2021 3:11 PM BST
No, thank you for your initial post and comments, SF would be nice.
Report Macintoshmatty September 11, 2021 3:30 PM BST
well done Anorak
Report September 12, 2021 12:07 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys and greetings from a sunny Longchamp.

I arrived at the course early (about 40 mins ago and have never seen it so empty although the first race is not until 1.23. There are 9 people in the salon i'm in and 3 of those are working, one at the entrance and 2 at the bar. I have been to Longchamp on non-Arc days before and it's so much more comfortable than the October weekend, although i suspect there will be several thousand here later.

I'm only interested in the Arc trials, even though Adayar is a NR (unfortunately). Hopefully the other days banker Snowfall wins well and the only other bet i expect to have (for a much lesser stake) is Skaletti. I will stay to watch the Nichols horse in the following race but without backing it.

Thanks to those that posted on the the thread in my absence yesterday, it's nice to see it's used by real racing fans.


WD with the bet, it was certainly an intruiqing question. If a gun was put to my head i would choose Buick over Doyle, but i wouldnt have much between them. Personally speaking my favourite jockeys are Frankie and Colin Keane.

China Castle

I didn't go to PSG in the end (as envisaged in a previous post) without Messi and Neymar i thought i would give it a miss (Mbappe played and scored). I  checked to see if they were playing in Paris on Arc weekend, but they are away. Thanks for the tip.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report TheAnorak September 15, 2021 6:15 PM BST

For info - you mentioned a French 2-y-old called Welwal some time back. He's been declared for a class 2 1600M conditions race at Chantilly on Friday, first race on the card. Only seven runners and rather oddly, the other six are all fillies, three of which won last time out.
Report September 15, 2021 8:28 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Back from Paris (Monday night) a nice weekend with exception of the 2 minutes 32 seconds it took for Snowfall to run the Prix Vermeille. Very disappointing (her and me) but i was almost resigned to her getting beaten when the field came into the straight, she didn't appear to be travelling well and i couldn't understand why Frankie had her so far back.

Pre-race i was expecting her to be up with the pace from the off at least and it wouldn't have surprised me if she had made the running even though AOB had a pacemaker in the field. C'est la vie, that's racing and we all know that odds of 2/9 doesn't make anything a certainty.

Snowfall wasn't my primary reason for going anyway, it was Adayar in the Prix Neil, but as we all know he was a NR (i knew this beforehand). He would probably have beaten that field easily enough, albeit at short odds.

Mind you, it could have been worse as i was intending to back Skaletti if Snowfall had won, but there was no way i was going to lump on at 7/5 to try and retrieve the loss, so i accepted it and left before the race. It wasn't all bad, i had a decent bet on the Leger winner the previous day, but still a losing weekend financially. I should have gone to Yorkshire, not Paris.

I took a photo of Frankie leaving the jockeys room, he looked miserable and when i wished him good luck, he didn't react or recognise me. Laugh

I arrived at Longchamp quite early and it made a pleasing change hardly seeing anyone. The crowd got bigger for the mid-afternoon races albeit nothing like an Arc weekend (a few thousand maybe). Getting a bet on was easy, as was buying a drink, no queues at all and the salon i initially went in was so peaceful (my previous post was from there). You could basically sit anywhere in the winning post enclosure, in fact, for one of the races i went to the top terrace, i hadn't done that before. 15 euros was very good value.

For anyone going to the Arc, take your passport and digital covid vaccination barcode although immediate testing was available at the entrance on Sunday, so i assume a similar arrangement will be in place.

Looking at the future, the Newmarket meeting on 8th October is still a possibility (although i have a München appointment on the 11th). Happysandwich, Lucky Luciano and Alan may also be attending.

Good luck and have a nice evening all


Many thanks for the Welwal information, much appreciated. I had been checking the RP future entries but no mention of him. The form of his win LTO (only race) is difficult to sum up, hardly anything from the field has run since (runner-up has won) but i was taken with the way he ran to the line so i will have a small bet on him if he's a price.
Report Lucky Luciano September 15, 2021 10:55 PM BST
Hi Andrew,
Should be going on the 8th applied for two free tickets courtesy of Racingtv club day and bought another one today for a score as website showing "high demand" all Grandstand/paddock enclosure.
If you can't make it over, next big meeting close to home for me will probably be Sandown for the Tingle creek (not that long off) btw going Wetherby for Charlie Hall 30th Oct and staying in Harrogate for that weekend with the missus and friends, never been and really looking forward to that one, but a bit out of your wayGrin
Report TheAnorak September 17, 2021 9:54 AM BST
Morning All,

I'm off the Newbury this afternoon and one favourite I'll be opposing is Silk Romance in the 1:45. Her win at Newmarket looked impressive, but she was allowed an easy lead and could hardly have had a race more perfectly set up for her. Another Godolphin filly was second favourite that day, and was dropped out at the back and never got involved. They all look good beating up rivals that are going to be running in 0-75 handicaps before long!

Even money would be a bit skinny imo, 1/2 is just daft. I've already laid her and will back whichever of the others appeals most on inspection.

Also interesting to see D'Bai running again so soon - was his second to Glorious Journey last Saturday just a prep race?
Report TheAnorak September 17, 2021 9:56 AM BST
My fingers are running wild, that should read 'off to Newbury.
Report September 17, 2021 12:32 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,


I will post on here by end of next week if i can attend Newmarket on 8th although i really fancy the idea. The only real constraints are close proximity to the Arc (previous weekend) and an appointment in München on 11th, but both of these are surmountable. As for Wetherby, Cornishmen are not allowed that far north Laugh (seriously, i went to Newcastle for the car ferry to Sweden years ago).


Good luck at Newbury and thanks for the heads up about Silk Romance and D'Bai. I’m happy to lay the former at 1.57.

As for my horse ‘to look out for’ Welwal (Chantilly 1.03) i noticed he’s 2nd behind an odds-on favourite. Liquidity is poor (only buttons to back) so i will have a fun lay of the latter.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report BESTMATE44 September 17, 2021 1:49 PM BST
Very well done Alan,top laying!
Report ashleigh September 17, 2021 1:50 PM BST
well done anorak.Cool
Report second again September 17, 2021 1:51 PM BST
Well done again Alan.
Report Eborman September 17, 2021 1:52 PM BST
Thank you
Report Eborman September 17, 2021 1:52 PM BST
Anorak, that is
Report happysandwich September 17, 2021 2:05 PM BST
Very well done Alan,

Hope you thought Heredia looked the best of the others in the paddock and backed that to win too.
Report gazza66 September 17, 2021 2:52 PM BST
Great stuff TheAnorak. Not everyday you get a 4/9 chance turned over.
Report September 17, 2021 2:57 PM BST
WD Alan, nice one (2nd @ 4/9)
Report TheAnorak September 17, 2021 8:16 PM BST
Thanks for the comments - it does seem that giving a horse a mention on here induces a Midas touch for me. But I don't want to take over the thread, so I'll stick to the occasional one and not make it a regular thing.

It looks as if Welwal ran into a filly of the highest class and one to keep in mind if she runs over here. She's called Raclette, a superbly bred Juddmonte filly by Frankel out of a mare that won four Grade 1 races in the US, and trained by Andre Fabre, so she's got a lot going for her.
Report GLASGOWCALLING September 17, 2021 10:19 PM BST
Well done on your lay Anorak, as regards taking over the thread fear not, those that have tried have either been banned

or eventually gave up, one was even banned from his local Tesco's ( May not be a bad thing ). Wink
Report September 18, 2021 9:35 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,


I have absolutely no problem with you posting lay selections on here (or anyone for that matter) in fact i welcome it and i'm sure many others do. Punters with your knowledge of the game improve the thread anyway, so please continue.

As for the French filly Raclette, you could be correct. Her debut form stacks up with 4 subsequent winners coming out of the field and she won easily yesterday. Welwal was giving her 3 lb but is probably not up to her class. I lost small on the race but recovered quickly with a lay of Silk Romance.

Thanks Glasgow.

More later, i'm actually in the office for a few hours (with one eye on ITV4 Wink).

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Macintoshmatty September 18, 2021 9:58 AM BST
Move over Andrew there's an Anorak in town!!
Report brigust1 September 18, 2021 12:41 PM BST
Hi Andrew and Anorak. You wouldn't adam and eve it but, after just finishing a project I have spent 18 months working on, I am away for three weeks just when someone who looks like he knows what he is talking about is sharing a platform with someone who definitely knows what he is is talking about and they are going head to head. Plus there are some great races coming up. 

I had planned to go to France but be back for the Arc then the quarantine rules were lifted and I booked to stay another week. Not making great decisions at the moment, it seems. I should be back for Champions Day, but plans are still fluid. Added to that I am too early to avoid paying for the PVR test. Keep up the good work guys.
Report i_agree_with_nick September 18, 2021 1:12 PM BST
Yes, please both keep posting (Andrew and Anorak).   Like some others, I only occasionally follow you in but love reading the write-ups!
Report i_agree_with_nick September 18, 2021 1:12 PM BST
* and anyone else, for that matter.
Report September 19, 2021 9:03 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

This time last week i was preparing for a quality afternoon live at Longchamp on a warm, sunny day, but fast toward to a cloudy day west of München, 3 average Sunday meetings and Betfair LV (no racing channels here).

Not much action across the Channel either (at least with UK/Irish interest) but from a Black type perspective there is the German St Leger at Dortmund with listed races at Hannover and Strasbourg. John Egan (one of the oldest jockeys riding) rides at the former that i thought was an odd booking.

AOB often has several runners in classics (much to the annoyance of some punters) but it appears another trainer is taking a leaf out of the same book this afternoon over at Capanelle (Italy). There are 3 group races with a total of 16 runners at the meeting and Aldunio Botti trains 10 of them (including 4 of 4 and 4 of 6 in a couple of the fields).

I flipped through the UK/Irish cards over a coffee earlier this morning but nothing really jumped off the page. The class of runners was average (although Newmarket is represented up at Hamilton) but the highest winning prize appeared to be only €12,390 for an Irish NH race with the field rated in the low 160s, it's hardly surprising some owners are leaving the game.

One runner i layed earlier is the Paul Nicholls trained Dogon (Plumpton 3.10). His recent form figures of 2-2-3 may look promising but were in small fields where a few didn't finish, or were basically tailed off in all but name. Seems devoid of pace where it matters as well. The drop in trip may benefit, but he's prone to the odd error and Plumpton is not forgiving. I think Bryony will make the running but get picked off in the latter stages. If there is a negative for layers it's the trainers only runner this afternoon.

Another top trainer with a sole runner is Nicky Henderson with Impulsive One (Plumpton 3.40) already a short price (11/8) but i wouldn't want to be lumping on this one. A winner on the flat (rated 81) making a hurdle debut, but will have to run well to catch Fred Bear around here (albeit the latter is carrying a 7b penalty). Could be too classy and hose up although i have my doubts. I will have a small lay on this one.

Some of the afternoon races look trappy and i don't feel it's a strong favourites winning afternoon so maybe i can find a P/L lay to post later.

I was in the office for much of yesterday and although i had one eye on the Opening Show (via Transponder TV) i didn't watch a single race later. I only had one horse bet, a lay of Head Mistress in the group race at Ayr. Apprentice ridden first time out and Colin Keane next, but the latter stayed in Ireland for some non-descript rides and Gary Carroll took over. Up in distance/class and at 5/2f i thought she was short enough in an open race. Finished 4th (apologies for the aftertiming).

Most of us have read of Altiors retirement, a wonderful NH horse, one of my favourite chasers and i was lucky enough to see him run several times including the Tingle Creek win in 2018. I think Nicky made a mistake running him against Cyrname at Ascot, he was never the same thereafter, neither was the winner. The discussion of who was the better, him or Sprinter Sacre will continue for years, but in my opinion it's a no contest, the latter wins.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.


Laugh i'll close the door on the way out.


Alan and i are not going head to head, nor would i attempt it. I'm an aerospace engineer first, massive life-long racing fan 2nd (so it's certainly nowhere near BG v Frankel Wink) but i'm flattered he posts on this thread, his knowledge of the game is far superior to mine and most.

I didn't fully understand your post, are you in France now and going to the Arc ? I have the race and the Newmarket meeting on the 8th October still in mind as you will have read.


Thank you.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2021 9:28 AM BST
Hi Andrew. It was a remark in jest. You have been keeping the forum going almost single-handedly for a while now so any new interest has to be welcomed. No, I am flying out tomorrow. I had wanted to go for three weeks and go to the Arc but my wife works so I had to take quarantine into consideration so booked flights to return on the 1st. With quarantine lifted I have extended our visit back to the original three weeks so will now miss the Arc, though I will watch it at friends on the tv. 

You do yourself a disservice by suggesting you are only an aerospace engineer because your write-ups are always well researched and a damned good read. Of course with the forum dying on its feet your performance stands out even more, a bit Frankelesque you might say, but we won't go there.Whoops
Report ashleigh September 19, 2021 9:32 AM BST
andrew, on a quiet day the best racing looks to be at bro park sweden, a group 3 and 3 listed races with  plenty of english interest. david egan has rides in each race.
Report Eborman September 19, 2021 9:39 AM BST

Totally agree with your comment regarding AIS

My favourites bar tab for the BF Forum takes me straight here!!

Main interest for me still looking into the Forum is seeing what AIS is thoughts are (plus the likes of Anorak and one or two other knowledgeable people) - made a few bob too!
Report Lampus September 19, 2021 10:55 AM BST
Good Luck ANDREW Happy
Report TheAnorak September 19, 2021 11:08 AM BST
Just to advise caution at Plumpton, where it is raining and the radar suggests it will continue to rain until just before the first race. Not heavy, but rain falling on good to firm ground there can produce dangerous underfoot conditions.

Andrew, I'd be with you in taking on Impulsive One. If it was any good, it wouldn't be running at Plumpton in September! And for todays challenge, can anybody name a horse that raced on the flat for Haggas and went on to do well over hurdles. When he's them for two seasons, there isn't generally much petrol left in the tank.
Report stewarts rise September 19, 2021 2:02 PM BST
Hope you don't mind me putting up a horse I think is worth laying at the price is De Mazzaro at Hamilton a horse I've took an interest in for a few years now ever since his jockey dislocated his arm in a race in Ireland and unable to ride a finish.
Horse has become a lot more consistent since joining T Davidsons Yard and using forcing tactics to win 3 races and 2 close 2nds. Last race ran pretty well up to form at the weights from the previous race and won't be far away whatever but at about 6/4 I'll be laying mainly due to the soft ground and it's breeding. Although has won on soft ground over hurdles his best form on flat is on Good-G/F ground, by See you think whose stats are considerably worse on soft ground unsurprising being bred in NZ, dams form appears better on good ground as well, bound to be up there just hope 1 or 2 others go past.
Report Lampus September 19, 2021 3:18 PM BST
Well  Done  ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report gazza66 September 19, 2021 3:19 PM BST
Well done AIS. Dogon went to 1.06 in running.
Report stewarts rise September 19, 2021 3:26 PM BST
Well done Andrew!
Report second again September 19, 2021 3:31 PM BST
Dogon must have made you sweat Andrew,well done though you have been unlucky on occasions it all evens out.Cool
Report stewarts rise September 19, 2021 4:27 PM BST
Thought the horse on the outside Dandys Angel was coming to win it but didn't stay. Apologies to anyone who listened.
Report TheAnorak September 19, 2021 7:37 PM BST
Impulsive One looked to thoroughly enjoy that - the exception that proves the Haggas rule!
Report Eborman September 20, 2021 7:43 AM BST

No apologies needed, sir

It's always good to listen to reasoned opinion, that is why I enjoy this thread and have done for the past 3 or 4 years, thanks
Report isleham September 20, 2021 4:40 PM BST
there was some very interesting races in north america over the weekend with charlie appleby cleaning up with the assistance of frankie.
Report isleham September 20, 2021 4:41 PM BST
the two 2 year olds looked particularly impressive and will surely finish up at the breeders cup
Report September 20, 2021 6:48 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Dogon (2/1 runner-up) got thread readers/layers off to a good start although i must admit i thought he was going to win approaching the last fence even though he rarely finds much in a finish. Bryony took off like a rocket from the off (more or less expected) and neither did anything wrong but you need a fair bit of faith to back the horse pre-race unless you plan to trade IR.

Unfortunately Impulsive One let the side down in the following race, but no excuses as he looked the winner 2 out and was different class in the end. Mind you he drifted from an early 11/8 to 11/4 SP. I got this one completely wrong but i don't have issues laying ex-flat race horses on debut over hurdles, more so if they are short in the betting, although not all of them of course.


Many thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated.


Thanks, i wasn't aware Bro Park was on even though i flipped through the RP cards earlier in the morning. I noticed Pat Cosgrove had a winner, i can't ever remember him riding up there before but don't quote me on that. A track i've never been to although i used to watch the trotting elsewhere in earlier years, but it's been a long time since i last went.

Stewerts Rise

It's never a problem posting on this thread or laying a winner, we all do the latter, so no apology necessary (as Eborman posted). If there is reasoning to support a back or lay, it's a positive and much better than simply posting back ABC or lay XYZ (more or less a guess) readers can then make use of it as they wish.


Charlie is a decent trainer, not many of his runners get layed on this thread.

Have a nice evening all.
Report September 20, 2021 6:49 PM BST
Alan, Happysandwich, Lucky Luciano, Mr Spreadsheet.

Just to let you know i bought a premier grandstand ticket for Newmarket on Friday October 8th earlier, so it looks very much on the cards i will be coming over (the night before probably).

If you would like to meet up for a coffee/beer at the course before racing starts, let's arrange it via PM (or my other contact means as some of you have them). If anyone wants to do his own thing later, that's fine, but it would be nice to shake hands and exchange views.
Report Lucky Luciano September 21, 2021 8:32 AM BST
Morning Andrew,
Jolly Good.
Another old name btw you may remember from many years ago, was a decent horse trained by Bruce Hobbs who I’m sure I backed, which is why I remember the name Happy
I will message you later
Report September 21, 2021 10:29 AM BST
Morning Guys


BH trained several decent horse, Cry Of Truth, Tromos, Tumbledownwind and Jacinth immediately spring to mind, was it one of these ?
Report TheAnorak September 21, 2021 12:12 PM BST
He actually trained a horse called Jolly Good - won the 1975 Magnet Cup as a 3-y-old at odds of 9/2, ridden by W Carson.
Report Lucky Luciano September 21, 2021 12:28 PM BST
Andrew, Alan
Remember Tromos, maybe wrong but think the colours black with white spots ? and was still at school when Jolly Good won the magnet cup so would have only been pocket money and that wasnt much
Report September 21, 2021 12:29 PM BST
Thanks Alan, it went completely over my head, and i actually wondered why Lucky had mentioned Bruce Hobbs in the first place.

It was a long morning Laugh
Report TheAnorak September 21, 2021 1:01 PM BST
Yes, those were the colours of the Cambanis family, who owned Stilvi, the brilliant sprinter who went on to be the dam of Tyrnavos (Irish Derby), Tromos, Tachypous, Tolmi etc, all trained by Hobbs.
Report happysandwich September 21, 2021 1:04 PM BST
I’ll be going on the 8th with my wife and we’ll make arrangements to meet up nearer the date.


Notice you’ve got 3 tickets – are you going mob handed? Laugh
Report happysandwich September 21, 2021 1:11 PM BST

Unless you are wondering - I’ll meet up with my wife before the 8th. Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano September 21, 2021 4:01 PM BST
“Notice you’ve got 3 tickets – are you going mob handed?”
Couple of minders Wink

Nice to know you’re coming along look forward to meeting you
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.


Instance ID: 13539