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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 07:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,204 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
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Report Brian September 5, 2021 4:51 PM BST
Interesting write up on hose purchases Alan. Good luck with your new purchase.

Some successful lays Andrew, well done.
Report Lucky Luciano September 5, 2021 8:53 PM BST
Good call with the lay and reading of the Lord Glitters race and the lay of Tabdeed today.
Regards the Haydock sprint the horse I'm taking from the race is Happy Romance, his run started from second last, same time as Chil Chil and didnt get the straightest, clear run that CC did, only getting beaten inches for by CC for third place, finished the closest in the race as a 3yo potential for improvement and will be keeping an eye out next time she runs.
Report Lucky Luciano September 5, 2021 8:54 PM BST
*her run
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 6, 2021 8:01 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Thanks for the comments yesterday.

Lampus, i only got buttons matched on John Leeper but had a decent laying day all around, specially at Perth.

Looking at the cards earlier i was curious why Attaboy Roy was short in the lucky last (Newcastle 8.30). He ran well enough in 4th (only beaten 1/2L) off 59 over CD 6 races back in an apprentice handicap (3 lb claimer on board) and has been placed here a few times prior to this albeit off lower marks. In 13 races he's been favourite 7 times, but only has a solitary win to show for it.

He's been a little hit and miss since and although first time blinkers may be a benefit, odds of 2/1 certainly don't appeal. Looking at the field this is a lucky pin race and although i think he may make the running, will be outpaced late on, finishing in the minor places again.

Lucky

Happy Romance wasn't a bad 2 year old beating Alcohol Free no less (G3 at Salisbury) before finishing behind the same filly in the Chevely Park next time out. Wasn't one of the ITV female crew sweet on her pre-race ? Probably just short of top class (as Chil Chil) but either of them could pick up a decent race in time although a little less demanding.

I think the hype surrounding Starman will recede a bit now, i think it was OTT as i pointed out on Saturday morning and when you look at his record, he's actually only ever looked imperious in one race, the July Cup.

The latter part of this week looks good, Doncaster Cup, Flying Childers, Leger, Irish Champion, National stakes and the Arc trials to name a few.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
Report stu September 7, 2021 1:24 AM BST
Even better pick with Attaboy Roy, totally done out of sight - mad price too.
VWP indeed andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 7, 2021 8:25 AM BST
Morning Stu

Thank you. Attaboy Roy ran worse than i expected (specially for a 2/1 jf) up with the pace for less than 2 furlongs, but weakened tamely and was soon beaten, finishing 7th of 8. If that was a 'true' run he will not be winning soon.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 9, 2021 9:20 AM BST
Lay Post

Doncaster 4.15 - Sinjaari

A 5 year old Camelot gelding trained by Roger Charlton in Beckhampton, Wiltshire. Transferred from William Haggis prior to his previous run.

Dam was a maiden (only 2 runs). 3 offspring producing 3 wins.

A half-decent handicapper (listed class) who has improved since being gelded (December 2019).

Looked to be well handicapped when he won the John Smiths at York (extended 10f) off a mark of 95 over a year ago (raised 8 lb for the win) and although riunning well enough in 5 races since has failed to win. May have been unlucky when he was runner-up LTO at York. Currently rated 107.

Taking a form perspective, he's on a par with 2 rivals (only 2 lb separating the 3 runners) although not best in at the weights. A small field and it may well be a tactical race with Frankie trying to set the fractions up front.

Sinjaari strikes me as the type to need cover in a big field (aka his best runs) with a decent pace, coming with a late run and a small field may not suit him.

Difficult to call the winner and i see this more as 15/8 the 3 runners. At odds of 6/4 in a very open race that could be tactical/pace dependant/not suited, i feel they are too short, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.59

Good luck all

09-Sep-21
09:14:43    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243584399178 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 09:18:22    Lay    2.66    9.64    --    16.00
9.64
Matched

09-Sep-21
09:09:24    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243584239897 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 09:12:47    Lay    2.60    10.09    --    16.14
10.09
Matched

09-Sep-21
08:58:01    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243583929927 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 08:58:45    Lay    2.60    0.65    --    1.04
0.65
Matched

09-Sep-21
08:51:01    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243583762957 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 08:56:03    Lay    2.58    21.43    --    33.86
21.43
Matched

09-Sep-21
08:21:42    16:15 Doncaster
Sinjaari - 1m2f Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:243582997464 | Matched: 09-Sep-21 08:25:32    Lay    2.52    8.19    --    12.45
8.19
Matched
Report Lampus September 9, 2021 9:57 AM BST
Good Luck ANDREW  Happy
Report hologon September 9, 2021 4:20 PM BST
Well done again Andrew keep on rolling along
Report Early Morning Riser September 9, 2021 4:22 PM BST
Well done Andrew.
Report Macintoshmatty September 9, 2021 5:04 PM BST
well done Andrew
Report Lucky Luciano September 9, 2021 5:10 PM BST
WD Andrew,
Nice to see a close finish go our way, as it was Frankie verses Ryan never a worry Laugh
See your weekend banker is a non runner now, which is a shame
Enjoy your trip anyway
Cheers
Report Mr_Spreadsheet September 9, 2021 5:45 PM BST
well done Andrew - never in doubt Laugh
Report madhatters September 9, 2021 7:03 PM BST
WD AIS
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 10, 2021 10:15 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

Many thanks for the comments after the lay selection race yesterday (2nd @ 11/8 jf) much appreciated.

Frankie made the running at a sedate pace as expected, no surprise there, but i couldn’t believe SP of the winner (7/2). At those odds, i could have dutched the other 2 although easy to say post race. It was a typical good front running ride and he judged it to perfection. Sinjaari had every chance and from what i hear he went short IR, but as mentioned in the reasoning i felt it was the wrong type of race for him although he could win a decent handicap in time.

Lucky

Correct, Adayar a NR in the Prix Neil due to a hind leg infection, but it’s still a very good group race card and Snowfall is still an intended runner in the Prix Vermeille.

08.30 flight on Saturday morning; i’m even thinking about going to watch PSG play in the afternoon (17.00). I’ve seen some good European teams (including Bayern München) but never a French game. Paying circa 60 euros to see Messi, MBappe and Naymar (assuming they all play) is a bargain. Speaking of bargains, 15 euros for my Longchamp Arc Trials/Sunday ticket with a seat in the winning post stand included !

Newmarket on October 8th is still an option, but i will decide when i return from the Arc.

Mr Spreadsheet

Agreed, i don’t know what all the fuss was for.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Maybe more later.
Report china castle September 10, 2021 1:10 PM BST
Hi Andrew ,

Just to let you know that Messi and Neymar won't be playing tomorrow. They played in the World Cup qualifiers late last night.
Mbappe is also a doubt as he Withdrew from the France squad with a calf injury.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 10, 2021 1:30 PM BST
Hi China,

Many thanks for the PSG info (i wasn't aware) much appreciated. This puts a different slant on the game, it was the chance of watching 3 world cup stars that instigated the initial idea as i will be in Paris anyway. I can decide tomorrow, but it's looking likely that i will give it a miss now. Never mind, i hadn't bought a ticket and Paris is a fun city, c'est la vie.

Good luck.
Report china castle September 10, 2021 1:55 PM BST
No problems Andrew ,

They will still have a good team starting though, it's somewhere I would love to go.

Enjoy your weekend and well done on the lay yesterday Cool
Report TheAnorak September 11, 2021 10:21 AM BST
Morning All,

Here's an interesting puzzle for today - Doncaster 3:00. D'Bai has won 8 times, 6 when ridden by Buick, 1 when ridden by Doyle. Glorious Journey has won 7 times, 5 when ridden by Doyle, 2 when ridden by Buick.

So who decided that today, Buick would be on Glorious Journey and Doyle on D'Bai. Is it purely down to the trainer, or does Buick have first choice and he's given up on D'Bai after his poor return at Newbury? I really like the chances of Glorious Journey in this, but I'd be a lot more confident if Doyle was on board. To bet or not to bet, that is the question!
Report stewarts rise September 11, 2021 11:40 AM BST
Wouldn't have much between Buick and Doyle myself, go with your fancy Anorak
Report happysandwich September 11, 2021 12:51 PM BST
To bet or not to bet, that is the question!

Alas poor Yorick, we know not which.
Report doorman99 September 11, 2021 3:03 PM BST
Hope you stuck with it anorak, well done!
Report stewarts rise September 11, 2021 3:04 PM BST
1-2, could have backed both at earlier prices, vwd Anorak.
Report TheAnorak September 11, 2021 3:08 PM BST
S R,

You're quite right about them being much the same and your comment made me think that perhaps I was being too fussy - so the bet was made. Thank you!
Report stewarts rise September 11, 2021 3:11 PM BST
No, thank you for your initial post and comments, SF would be nice.
Report Macintoshmatty September 11, 2021 3:30 PM BST
well done Anorak
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 12, 2021 12:07 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys and greetings from a sunny Longchamp.

I arrived at the course early (about 40 mins ago and have never seen it so empty although the first race is not until 1.23. There are 9 people in the salon i'm in and 3 of those are working, one at the entrance and 2 at the bar. I have been to Longchamp on non-Arc days before and it's so much more comfortable than the October weekend, although i suspect there will be several thousand here later.

I'm only interested in the Arc trials, even though Adayar is a NR (unfortunately). Hopefully the other days banker Snowfall wins well and the only other bet i expect to have (for a much lesser stake) is Skaletti. I will stay to watch the Nichols horse in the following race but without backing it.

Thanks to those that posted on the the thread in my absence yesterday, it's nice to see it's used by real racing fans.

Alan,

WD with the bet, it was certainly an intruiqing question. If a gun was put to my head i would choose Buick over Doyle, but i wouldnt have much between them. Personally speaking my favourite jockeys are Frankie and Colin Keane.

China Castle

I didn't go to PSG in the end (as envisaged in a previous post) without Messi and Neymar i thought i would give it a miss (Mbappe played and scored). I  checked to see if they were playing in Paris on Arc weekend, but they are away. Thanks for the tip.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report TheAnorak September 15, 2021 6:15 PM BST
Andrew,

For info - you mentioned a French 2-y-old called Welwal some time back. He's been declared for a class 2 1600M conditions race at Chantilly on Friday, first race on the card. Only seven runners and rather oddly, the other six are all fillies, three of which won last time out.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 15, 2021 8:28 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Back from Paris (Monday night) a nice weekend with exception of the 2 minutes 32 seconds it took for Snowfall to run the Prix Vermeille. Very disappointing (her and me) but i was almost resigned to her getting beaten when the field came into the straight, she didn't appear to be travelling well and i couldn't understand why Frankie had her so far back.

Pre-race i was expecting her to be up with the pace from the off at least and it wouldn't have surprised me if she had made the running even though AOB had a pacemaker in the field. C'est la vie, that's racing and we all know that odds of 2/9 doesn't make anything a certainty.

Snowfall wasn't my primary reason for going anyway, it was Adayar in the Prix Neil, but as we all know he was a NR (i knew this beforehand). He would probably have beaten that field easily enough, albeit at short odds.

Mind you, it could have been worse as i was intending to back Skaletti if Snowfall had won, but there was no way i was going to lump on at 7/5 to try and retrieve the loss, so i accepted it and left before the race. It wasn't all bad, i had a decent bet on the Leger winner the previous day, but still a losing weekend financially. I should have gone to Yorkshire, not Paris.

I took a photo of Frankie leaving the jockeys room, he looked miserable and when i wished him good luck, he didn't react or recognise me. Laugh

I arrived at Longchamp quite early and it made a pleasing change hardly seeing anyone. The crowd got bigger for the mid-afternoon races albeit nothing like an Arc weekend (a few thousand maybe). Getting a bet on was easy, as was buying a drink, no queues at all and the salon i initially went in was so peaceful (my previous post was from there). You could basically sit anywhere in the winning post enclosure, in fact, for one of the races i went to the top terrace, i hadn't done that before. 15 euros was very good value.

For anyone going to the Arc, take your passport and digital covid vaccination barcode although immediate testing was available at the entrance on Sunday, so i assume a similar arrangement will be in place.

Looking at the future, the Newmarket meeting on 8th October is still a possibility (although i have a München appointment on the 11th). Happysandwich, Lucky Luciano and Alan may also be attending.

Good luck and have a nice evening all

Alan

Many thanks for the Welwal information, much appreciated. I had been checking the RP future entries but no mention of him. The form of his win LTO (only race) is difficult to sum up, hardly anything from the field has run since (runner-up has won) but i was taken with the way he ran to the line so i will have a small bet on him if he's a price.
Report Lucky Luciano September 15, 2021 10:55 PM BST
Hi Andrew,
Should be going on the 8th applied for two free tickets courtesy of Racingtv club day and bought another one today for a score as website showing "high demand" all Grandstand/paddock enclosure.
If you can't make it over, next big meeting close to home for me will probably be Sandown for the Tingle creek (not that long off) btw going Wetherby for Charlie Hall 30th Oct and staying in Harrogate for that weekend with the missus and friends, never been and really looking forward to that one, but a bit out of your wayGrin
Report TheAnorak September 17, 2021 9:54 AM BST
Morning All,

I'm off the Newbury this afternoon and one favourite I'll be opposing is Silk Romance in the 1:45. Her win at Newmarket looked impressive, but she was allowed an easy lead and could hardly have had a race more perfectly set up for her. Another Godolphin filly was second favourite that day, and was dropped out at the back and never got involved. They all look good beating up rivals that are going to be running in 0-75 handicaps before long!

Even money would be a bit skinny imo, 1/2 is just daft. I've already laid her and will back whichever of the others appeals most on inspection.

Also interesting to see D'Bai running again so soon - was his second to Glorious Journey last Saturday just a prep race?
Report TheAnorak September 17, 2021 9:56 AM BST
My fingers are running wild, that should read 'off to Newbury.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 17, 2021 12:32 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Lucky

I will post on here by end of next week if i can attend Newmarket on 8th although i really fancy the idea. The only real constraints are close proximity to the Arc (previous weekend) and an appointment in München on 11th, but both of these are surmountable. As for Wetherby, Cornishmen are not allowed that far north Laugh (seriously, i went to Newcastle for the car ferry to Sweden years ago).

Alan

Good luck at Newbury and thanks for the heads up about Silk Romance and D'Bai. I’m happy to lay the former at 1.57.

As for my horse ‘to look out for’ Welwal (Chantilly 1.03) i noticed he’s 2nd behind an odds-on favourite. Liquidity is poor (only buttons to back) so i will have a fun lay of the latter.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report BESTMATE44 September 17, 2021 1:49 PM BST
Very well done Alan,top laying!
Report ashleigh September 17, 2021 1:50 PM BST
well done anorak.Cool
Report second again September 17, 2021 1:51 PM BST
Well done again Alan.
Report Eborman September 17, 2021 1:52 PM BST
Thank you
Report Eborman September 17, 2021 1:52 PM BST
Anorak, that is
Report happysandwich September 17, 2021 2:05 PM BST
Very well done Alan,

Hope you thought Heredia looked the best of the others in the paddock and backed that to win too.
Report gazza66 September 17, 2021 2:52 PM BST
Great stuff TheAnorak. Not everyday you get a 4/9 chance turned over.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 17, 2021 2:57 PM BST
WD Alan, nice one (2nd @ 4/9)
Report TheAnorak September 17, 2021 8:16 PM BST
Thanks for the comments - it does seem that giving a horse a mention on here induces a Midas touch for me. But I don't want to take over the thread, so I'll stick to the occasional one and not make it a regular thing.

It looks as if Welwal ran into a filly of the highest class and one to keep in mind if she runs over here. She's called Raclette, a superbly bred Juddmonte filly by Frankel out of a mare that won four Grade 1 races in the US, and trained by Andre Fabre, so she's got a lot going for her.
Report GLASGOWCALLING September 17, 2021 10:19 PM BST
Well done on your lay Anorak, as regards taking over the thread fear not, those that have tried have either been banned

or eventually gave up, one was even banned from his local Tesco's ( May not be a bad thing ). Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 18, 2021 9:35 AM BST
Good sunny morning Guys,

Alan

I have absolutely no problem with you posting lay selections on here (or anyone for that matter) in fact i welcome it and i'm sure many others do. Punters with your knowledge of the game improve the thread anyway, so please continue.

As for the French filly Raclette, you could be correct. Her debut form stacks up with 4 subsequent winners coming out of the field and she won easily yesterday. Welwal was giving her 3 lb but is probably not up to her class. I lost small on the race but recovered quickly with a lay of Silk Romance.

Thanks Glasgow.

More later, i'm actually in the office for a few hours (with one eye on ITV4 Wink).

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Macintoshmatty September 18, 2021 9:58 AM BST
Move over Andrew there's an Anorak in town!!
Report brigust1 September 18, 2021 12:41 PM BST
Hi Andrew and Anorak. You wouldn't adam and eve it but, after just finishing a project I have spent 18 months working on, I am away for three weeks just when someone who looks like he knows what he is talking about is sharing a platform with someone who definitely knows what he is is talking about and they are going head to head. Plus there are some great races coming up. 

I had planned to go to France but be back for the Arc then the quarantine rules were lifted and I booked to stay another week. Not making great decisions at the moment, it seems. I should be back for Champions Day, but plans are still fluid. Added to that I am too early to avoid paying for the PVR test. Keep up the good work guys.
Report i_agree_with_nick September 18, 2021 1:12 PM BST
Yes, please both keep posting (Andrew and Anorak).   Like some others, I only occasionally follow you in but love reading the write-ups!
Report i_agree_with_nick September 18, 2021 1:12 PM BST
* and anyone else, for that matter.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 19, 2021 9:03 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

This time last week i was preparing for a quality afternoon live at Longchamp on a warm, sunny day, but fast toward to a cloudy day west of München, 3 average Sunday meetings and Betfair LV (no racing channels here).

Not much action across the Channel either (at least with UK/Irish interest) but from a Black type perspective there is the German St Leger at Dortmund with listed races at Hannover and Strasbourg. John Egan (one of the oldest jockeys riding) rides at the former that i thought was an odd booking.

AOB often has several runners in classics (much to the annoyance of some punters) but it appears another trainer is taking a leaf out of the same book this afternoon over at Capanelle (Italy). There are 3 group races with a total of 16 runners at the meeting and Aldunio Botti trains 10 of them (including 4 of 4 and 4 of 6 in a couple of the fields).

I flipped through the UK/Irish cards over a coffee earlier this morning but nothing really jumped off the page. The class of runners was average (although Newmarket is represented up at Hamilton) but the highest winning prize appeared to be only €12,390 for an Irish NH race with the field rated in the low 160s, it's hardly surprising some owners are leaving the game.

One runner i layed earlier is the Paul Nicholls trained Dogon (Plumpton 3.10). His recent form figures of 2-2-3 may look promising but were in small fields where a few didn't finish, or were basically tailed off in all but name. Seems devoid of pace where it matters as well. The drop in trip may benefit, but he's prone to the odd error and Plumpton is not forgiving. I think Bryony will make the running but get picked off in the latter stages. If there is a negative for layers it's the trainers only runner this afternoon.

Another top trainer with a sole runner is Nicky Henderson with Impulsive One (Plumpton 3.40) already a short price (11/8) but i wouldn't want to be lumping on this one. A winner on the flat (rated 81) making a hurdle debut, but will have to run well to catch Fred Bear around here (albeit the latter is carrying a 7b penalty). Could be too classy and hose up although i have my doubts. I will have a small lay on this one.

Some of the afternoon races look trappy and i don't feel it's a strong favourites winning afternoon so maybe i can find a P/L lay to post later.

I was in the office for much of yesterday and although i had one eye on the Opening Show (via Transponder TV) i didn't watch a single race later. I only had one horse bet, a lay of Head Mistress in the group race at Ayr. Apprentice ridden first time out and Colin Keane next, but the latter stayed in Ireland for some non-descript rides and Gary Carroll took over. Up in distance/class and at 5/2f i thought she was short enough in an open race. Finished 4th (apologies for the aftertiming).

Most of us have read of Altiors retirement, a wonderful NH horse, one of my favourite chasers and i was lucky enough to see him run several times including the Tingle Creek win in 2018. I think Nicky made a mistake running him against Cyrname at Ascot, he was never the same thereafter, neither was the winner. The discussion of who was the better, him or Sprinter Sacre will continue for years, but in my opinion it's a no contest, the latter wins.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Matty

Laugh i'll close the door on the way out.

Laurie

Alan and i are not going head to head, nor would i attempt it. I'm an aerospace engineer first, massive life-long racing fan 2nd (so it's certainly nowhere near BG v Frankel Wink) but i'm flattered he posts on this thread, his knowledge of the game is far superior to mine and most.

I didn't fully understand your post, are you in France now and going to the Arc ? I have the race and the Newmarket meeting on the 8th October still in mind as you will have read.

Nick

Thank you.
Report brigust1 September 19, 2021 9:28 AM BST
Hi Andrew. It was a remark in jest. You have been keeping the forum going almost single-handedly for a while now so any new interest has to be welcomed. No, I am flying out tomorrow. I had wanted to go for three weeks and go to the Arc but my wife works so I had to take quarantine into consideration so booked flights to return on the 1st. With quarantine lifted I have extended our visit back to the original three weeks so will now miss the Arc, though I will watch it at friends on the tv. 

You do yourself a disservice by suggesting you are only an aerospace engineer because your write-ups are always well researched and a damned good read. Of course with the forum dying on its feet your performance stands out even more, a bit Frankelesque you might say, but we won't go there.Whoops
Report ashleigh September 19, 2021 9:32 AM BST
andrew, on a quiet day the best racing looks to be at bro park sweden, a group 3 and 3 listed races with  plenty of english interest. david egan has rides in each race.
Report Eborman September 19, 2021 9:39 AM BST
Brigust

Totally agree with your comment regarding AIS

My favourites bar tab for the BF Forum takes me straight here!!

Main interest for me still looking into the Forum is seeing what AIS is thoughts are (plus the likes of Anorak and one or two other knowledgeable people) - made a few bob too!
Report Lampus September 19, 2021 10:55 AM BST
Good Luck ANDREW Happy
Report TheAnorak September 19, 2021 11:08 AM BST
Just to advise caution at Plumpton, where it is raining and the radar suggests it will continue to rain until just before the first race. Not heavy, but rain falling on good to firm ground there can produce dangerous underfoot conditions.

Andrew, I'd be with you in taking on Impulsive One. If it was any good, it wouldn't be running at Plumpton in September! And for todays challenge, can anybody name a horse that raced on the flat for Haggas and went on to do well over hurdles. When he's them for two seasons, there isn't generally much petrol left in the tank.
Report stewarts rise September 19, 2021 2:02 PM BST
Hope you don't mind me putting up a horse I think is worth laying at the price is De Mazzaro at Hamilton a horse I've took an interest in for a few years now ever since his jockey dislocated his arm in a race in Ireland and unable to ride a finish.
Horse has become a lot more consistent since joining T Davidsons Yard and using forcing tactics to win 3 races and 2 close 2nds. Last race ran pretty well up to form at the weights from the previous race and won't be far away whatever but at about 6/4 I'll be laying mainly due to the soft ground and it's breeding. Although has won on soft ground over hurdles his best form on flat is on Good-G/F ground, by See you think whose stats are considerably worse on soft ground unsurprising being bred in NZ, dams form appears better on good ground as well, bound to be up there just hope 1 or 2 others go past.
Report Lampus September 19, 2021 3:18 PM BST
Well  Done  ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report gazza66 September 19, 2021 3:19 PM BST
Well done AIS. Dogon went to 1.06 in running.
Report stewarts rise September 19, 2021 3:26 PM BST
Well done Andrew!
Report second again September 19, 2021 3:31 PM BST
Dogon must have made you sweat Andrew,well done though you have been unlucky on occasions it all evens out.Cool
Report stewarts rise September 19, 2021 4:27 PM BST
Thought the horse on the outside Dandys Angel was coming to win it but didn't stay. Apologies to anyone who listened.
Report TheAnorak September 19, 2021 7:37 PM BST
Impulsive One looked to thoroughly enjoy that - the exception that proves the Haggas rule!
Report Eborman September 20, 2021 7:43 AM BST
SR

No apologies needed, sir

It's always good to listen to reasoned opinion, that is why I enjoy this thread and have done for the past 3 or 4 years, thanks
Report isleham September 20, 2021 4:40 PM BST
there was some very interesting races in north america over the weekend with charlie appleby cleaning up with the assistance of frankie.
Report isleham September 20, 2021 4:41 PM BST
the two 2 year olds looked particularly impressive and will surely finish up at the breeders cup
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 20, 2021 6:48 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Dogon (2/1 runner-up) got thread readers/layers off to a good start although i must admit i thought he was going to win approaching the last fence even though he rarely finds much in a finish. Bryony took off like a rocket from the off (more or less expected) and neither did anything wrong but you need a fair bit of faith to back the horse pre-race unless you plan to trade IR.

Unfortunately Impulsive One let the side down in the following race, but no excuses as he looked the winner 2 out and was different class in the end. Mind you he drifted from an early 11/8 to 11/4 SP. I got this one completely wrong but i don't have issues laying ex-flat race horses on debut over hurdles, more so if they are short in the betting, although not all of them of course.

Laurie/Eborman

Many thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated.

Ashleigh

Thanks, i wasn't aware Bro Park was on even though i flipped through the RP cards earlier in the morning. I noticed Pat Cosgrove had a winner, i can't ever remember him riding up there before but don't quote me on that. A track i've never been to although i used to watch the trotting elsewhere in earlier years, but it's been a long time since i last went.

Stewerts Rise

It's never a problem posting on this thread or laying a winner, we all do the latter, so no apology necessary (as Eborman posted). If there is reasoning to support a back or lay, it's a positive and much better than simply posting back ABC or lay XYZ (more or less a guess) readers can then make use of it as they wish.

Isleham

Charlie is a decent trainer, not many of his runners get layed on this thread.

Have a nice evening all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 20, 2021 6:49 PM BST
Alan, Happysandwich, Lucky Luciano, Mr Spreadsheet.

Just to let you know i bought a premier grandstand ticket for Newmarket on Friday October 8th earlier, so it looks very much on the cards i will be coming over (the night before probably).

If you would like to meet up for a coffee/beer at the course before racing starts, let's arrange it via PM (or my other contact means as some of you have them). If anyone wants to do his own thing later, that's fine, but it would be nice to shake hands and exchange views.
Report Lucky Luciano September 21, 2021 8:32 AM BST
Morning Andrew,
Jolly Good.
Another old name btw you may remember from many years ago, was a decent horse trained by Bruce Hobbs who I’m sure I backed, which is why I remember the name Happy
I will message you later
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 21, 2021 10:29 AM BST
Morning Guys

Lucky

BH trained several decent horse, Cry Of Truth, Tromos, Tumbledownwind and Jacinth immediately spring to mind, was it one of these ?
Report TheAnorak September 21, 2021 12:12 PM BST
He actually trained a horse called Jolly Good - won the 1975 Magnet Cup as a 3-y-old at odds of 9/2, ridden by W Carson.
Report Lucky Luciano September 21, 2021 12:28 PM BST
Andrew, Alan
Remember Tromos, maybe wrong but think the colours black with white spots ? and was still at school when Jolly Good won the magnet cup so would have only been pocket money and that wasnt much
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 21, 2021 12:29 PM BST
Thanks Alan, it went completely over my head, and i actually wondered why Lucky had mentioned Bruce Hobbs in the first place.

It was a long morning Laugh
Report TheAnorak September 21, 2021 1:01 PM BST
Yes, those were the colours of the Cambanis family, who owned Stilvi, the brilliant sprinter who went on to be the dam of Tyrnavos (Irish Derby), Tromos, Tachypous, Tolmi etc, all trained by Hobbs.
Report happysandwich September 21, 2021 1:04 PM BST
I’ll be going on the 8th with my wife and we’ll make arrangements to meet up nearer the date.

Lucky,

Notice you’ve got 3 tickets – are you going mob handed? Laugh
Report happysandwich September 21, 2021 1:11 PM BST
^^^

Unless you are wondering - I’ll meet up with my wife before the 8th. Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano September 21, 2021 4:01 PM BST
Happysandwich
“Notice you’ve got 3 tickets – are you going mob handed?”
Couple of minders Wink

Nice to know you’re coming along look forward to meeting you
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 22, 2021 12:42 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

No time to concentrate on a lay selection this afternoon (workload) but there is a runner of interest later in Albegone (Redcar 4.53). It took 12 races for the penny to drop and lose his maiden tag although to be fair he hadn’t run badly once he went into handicaps. Winner of his last 2 (both over 5f) the first at Musselburgh by 4L, but it was his easy win at Hamilton LTO that caught my attention, to say it was effortless is an understatement, he certainly looked better than a class 6 sprinter

The handicapper was also impressed by the win raising him 9 lb to 62. Conditions of the race this afternoon mean he has to carry a couple of 6lb penalties bringing him up to 65 and he’s up in class. His 'come from off the pace' style will be suited to Redcar. The field appears half-decent (in context of the class) but he looks to be an rapidly improving handicapper and 7/4 is probably around the right odds. I think he will win (backed earlier) although he's not a good thing of course.

Moving on to Newmarket (October 8th) i’m looking forward to meeting everyone (already met Happysandwich and his wife). We may not be able to be together as a group all afternoon (Happy can’t walk too far) but this is not a problem, i/others can amble at times and i also want to see Ed Thompson (he stands at the course). Many thanks for the responses, all we need now is a winner or 2 on the day.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 23, 2021 11:58 AM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

My sole suggestion yesterday, a back of the 13/8f Albegone (Redcar 4.53) came unstuck albeit only by a fast diminishing head (2nd). Punters often say they were unlucky when a bet is beaten in a photo but there could be some justification in this case. Jinked at the start, was a bit free in the early stages and drifted from centre of the track to the stand side. He was giving the winner 7 lb, up with the pace earlier than i envisaged pre-race, and to be fair it wasn’t a bad performance although i expected him to win. He can win in a similar class race soon.

On to this afternoon and like yesterday a little busy, but there is one NH runner i layed earlier, One True King (Perth 2.30) who is making his chase debut. Winner of a maiden and novice hurdle last season although in the latter race 5 didn’t finish and 2 were basically tailed off (9 runners). Not the most fluent over the smaller obstacles although may do better over fences. Did win a P2P but it took him 6 attempts. Hasn’t run since late March and his record doesn’t scream out a good run when fresh. Runs off 128 against several in-form rivals and barring One Touch i think the field is in with a chance of winning.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
Report Lampus September 23, 2021 1:01 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW Happy
G/L
Report second again September 23, 2021 1:09 PM BST
I thought you were unlucky yesterday with Albegone Andrew.Having looked at One True King he does seem too short so I have followed you in so be lucky today.
Report TheAnorak September 23, 2021 1:26 PM BST
A possible lay later this afternoon, Wakey Wakey in the Pontefract 4:40, currently trading at around 2.4, although there isn't much liquidity. Hasn't achieved much in two runs at Thirsk - fillies first, third and fourth when he was second there ten days ago over 7F. Ran freely that day, which isn't going to help over the stiff mile at Pontefract.

And perhaps the killer in terms of would you want to back or lay at that price - Tim Easterby in 2021, is 3/83 in 2-y-old novice races and 1/46 in 2-y-old maidens. As ever, a yard more interested in handicaps.
Report second again September 23, 2021 2:39 PM BST
Very well done with One True King Andrew,I would not have looked at the race without your input.Happy
Report starkeycars September 23, 2021 2:41 PM BST
WD Andrew one true king unplaced will also have a look at wakey wakey both good informative write ups always look forward each day to reading andrews and Alan’s thoughts on the days racing Happy
Report BESTMATE44 September 23, 2021 3:12 PM BST
Well done again Andrew.
Report starkeycars September 23, 2021 4:47 PM BST
Wd Alan with wakey wakey !
Report Early Morning Riser September 23, 2021 5:00 PM BST
Well done both
Report madhatters September 23, 2021 7:28 PM BST
WD Both
Report Lucky Luciano September 23, 2021 8:10 PM BST
Well done fellas,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and hope you both had profitable day
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 24, 2021 8:52 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the post lay comments, much appreciated.

The suggested lay selection One True King (2/1) floundered at Perth and eventually finished last of 5 beaten 92L although he was eased in the closing stages to be fair. I didn’t think he would win of course but it was a very poor run. Under pressure before 4 out and faded quickly so maybe something was amiss, or he was simply not fit, the vet later stated an examination failed to reveal anything abnormal.

Hopefully more later (busy morning).

Alan

WD on your lay selection, Wakey Wakey (4th) an even better one at 5/6f.

I’m not a stats guru, but the 2 year old figures you posted for Tim Easterby were interesting, certainly something to consider in future.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 24, 2021 12:54 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

A review of the cards over a Chicken salad earlier (according to the menu at least) and it appears to be a decent day of racing with something to cater for all tastes, flat turf, AW, NH and even a good thing over at Chantilly (2.21) albeit restricted odds.

Looking at the betting, the Joel stakes (Newmarket 3.35) appears to be a duel of the boys in Blue with Master Of The Sea v Benbati although i wouldn’t rule out the Shadwell runner. I don’t go against Charlie's runners so often (it’s a stable i like) but i wouldn’t want to be lumping on MOTS at 5/4, classy sort though he is. Hasn’t run since the Guineas in early May due to a setback, up against his elders for the first time, a tendency to be keen in his races and a decent rival in Benbati is sufficient reasoning to be wary of the likely favourite.

Most of the field tend to be held up so i expect Benbati to dictate the pace (could be tactical) or at least run much more prominently than LTO (forget the run as he was slowly away). Winner of this race in 2019 and runner-up last year. Rather than back this one i feel a lay of Master Of The Sea is the bet, albeit with few on the side of layers.

Another suggested lay at a much lower class level is Emaraty Hero (York 4.25). Finished 2nd LTO when running without a penalty after winning previously and receiving 8 lb. It was his first race at the trip (16f) and although running well enough backers must have been disappointed. He was also receiving a fair bit of weight when he won 3 races ago over a shorter trip. The handicapper has subsequently raised him 7 lb (74 to 81) and he’s giving weight to several rivals in a very open handicap in my opinion. Odds of 13/8 are too short.

I layed both selections earlier.

I also noticed John Leeper was running (Newmarket 4.10). Readers know i'm not a fan of this one at all, i've always thought he was over-rated. Back up in trip and in a winnable listed race, but it needs an act of faith to be backing him even at the envisaged odds of 9/2 and a couple of NR's. Not for me although if i do lay him later, it will only be to a small stake.

Looking further ahead, most will know William Buick has chosen to ride Adayar over Hurricane Lane in the Arc, this was more or less ‘expected’ of course. I like the horse, he was my primary reason for going to Longchamp for the trials almost a fortnight ago (pulled out) although i’m not suggesting he will win the race (at least not yet).

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report happysandwich September 24, 2021 1:02 PM BST
It was salmon & cucumber sandwiches for me.Cool

Just received my 2 tickets for Newmarket 8th Oct. (Grandstand & Paddock) numbers are 149 & 150.
Hope there’s a few more going.

Last time I went racing at the Rowley Mile Course I watched this on the big screen.

https://www.facebook.com/OfficialEnglandRugby/videos/england-v-new-zealand-jonny-wilkinson-try/530766271094163/
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 24, 2021 1:48 PM BST
Happysandwich,

All the previously mentioned names are going on October 8th (you know i will be there) albeit with a proviso you promise not to wear a Leyton Orient scarf or kick off after losing a bet in a photo finish Laugh

This was my last visit to Newmarket (went with another poster) it was a really good day for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzOocXKL2EA
Report happysandwich September 24, 2021 2:06 PM BST
Andrew,

Cancel the above link it was June 2003 not October 2019 and I remember Jonny Wilkinson kicking the winning try on the big screen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M87zzrqPTt8


Was the other poster you went with a brickie?
Report stu September 24, 2021 3:22 PM BST
With you on the lay of Emaraty Hero Andrew. GL (to us both).
Report Lampus September 24, 2021 3:39 PM BST
Well  done  ANDREW  MOTS  HappyHappy
Report second again September 24, 2021 3:48 PM BST
He was beaten a long way out,well done again.
Report Buzzards September 24, 2021 4:28 PM BST
Nice one Andrew
Nice one Son
Nice one Andrew
Let’s have another one?
Report stu September 24, 2021 4:30 PM BST
That's another quality one Andrew - unplaced even. Cool
Report Eborman September 24, 2021 4:32 PM BST
Keep 'em coming!

Thanks again
Report The Dragon September 24, 2021 4:39 PM BST
top stuff andrew vwd surely u must be retied by now on your winnings

i dont get to look at your pics very often due to work committments so please keep going until i retire and maybe i can make a few quid to boost my retirement coffersWink
Report Trusty September 24, 2021 6:20 PM BST
Two favourites, both unplaced. Can't do much better than that....VWD.
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