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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 07:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 3,988 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.
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Report GLASGOWCALLING May 30, 2021 10:30 PM BST
Thanks Andrew, has been a good month for me in the comp and financially, would be nice to continue in form in June

but i am under no illusions !!Happy
Report GEORGE.B May 31, 2021 8:59 AM BST
Good morning Anorak

Just looking through the form this morning and couldn't help but notice someone had gone and claimed Tenth Century, and is now trained by Michael Blake.

Now some will say: so what, finished second in a Thirsk seller?

And they'd be right, but time has shown that Tenth Century faced a mission impossible, trying to concede 2lb to a filly who will be rated something like 25lb higher after she is reassessed following another victory on Saturday - Mo Celita.

It looks like the handicapper has actually dropped Tenth Century 2lb, so he wasn't impressed!

If this was on similarly soft ground over 6f, 10-1 would look quite appealing, but dropped to 5f round Chelmsford, still makes some appeal because he didn't look short of toe at Thirsk and did actually lead Mo Celita for 4f.

Good luck with Love Dreams, btw.
Report Lucky Luciano May 31, 2021 11:16 AM BST
Morning Happy or should I say Percy thrower
Thanks for for your advice

Spot on with the housing estate in the middle so I guess easily accessible for the guys flying them and

Morning Andrew
Yep probably won’t do anything about it until there’s an accident.
Gatwick being shut down a couple if years ago was a disgrace,
Report TheAnorak May 31, 2021 3:16 PM BST
George,

Sorry, didn't see this earlier. Love Dreams a non runner today, probably won't be seen out for a couple of weeks.

Tenth Century was claimed on my advice and based on his running at Catterick last year, we hope that 5F will suit. Clearly the subsequent form of the Thirsk winner has made him look a good purchase, at least on paper, and he did beat the rest by quite a wide margin for a 6F race. Given his best Racing Post rating was achieved at Lingfield, we're hoping this surface will suit. But as you'll have spotted the word 'hope' keeps cropping up, because as with any new horse, it's mainly guesswork until you get to know them.
Report GEORGE.B May 31, 2021 6:22 PM BST
He didn't shape too badly, just seemed to find things happening too quickly under those conditions, got further back than is ideal round there, before making some late headway into fifth.

Good luck to new connections going forward with him, Anorak.
Report glentoby May 31, 2021 7:08 PM BST
ROFL,more front than Brighton Beach,who actually "Owns" luckysandwich bearing in mind the exposures?
Report glentoby May 31, 2021 7:10 PM BST
Btw Anorak............hope and Racing Post Ratings sums you up..............Dave Nevison knows you better than yourself!!!Sad
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 1, 2021 12:53 PM BST
Good sunny afternoon Guys,

Finally some Andrew time, a long and busy day yesterday and the only involvement i had with racing was a guess in the daily naps completion (approaching the final bend now). Roll on Thursday, a public holiday in Bavaria and yours truly is off to Salzburg for the day (a nice city).

My proposed lay on Sunday, the superbly bred AOB trained 2 yr old filly Prettiest looked well primed and won cosily making a mockery of my assertion that based on breeding the trip would be on the sharp side and she may be ‘tenderly handled’ on debut. She looks to have a decent future. Mind you i layed at 2.88 and she did drift a fair bit by race time (i saw 4.1 on offer ta one time). SP was 5/2.

On to this afternoon, i haven’t had much chance to review the RP/cards, but what little i did i thought the likely favourite Persaria (sister to The Tin Man) in the Leicester 4.50 was a lay at current odds of 7/4. Ran well enough LTO finishing runner-up to a potential half-decent type, but there was a lot of dead wood in the field and those behind her have run poorly since. That race was on soft (G/F this afternoon) and she’s not exactly thrown in on handicap debut off 65. Already layed and my only bet so far.

Happysandwich (Percy Thrower)

I can’t remember the last time i mowed a lawn but it was certainly before 1984 when i left UK. Apart from a few exceptions i’ve always lived in apartments since then anyway, as here in Germany. We’re on the 2nd (top floor) but no garden as such although we do have the balconies and C has plants on the south facing one. In Linköping, again an apartment but at least a small grass area (with Apple tree) and a BBQ patio/4 chairs (the management company take care of the tending to it). I’m not sure if i’m the gardening type to be honest, but i do have a lot of time for those with beautiful manicured lawns, shrubs and flower beds et all, it must be nice sitting outside on a sunny day with a glass of whatever admiring your own handy-work. Maybe one day, who knows.

Glasgow Calling

WD on promotion to the Premiership although it looked assured a while ago. No comment on my performance. Sad The best final position i’ve reached is runner-up in the Premiership 2013, i was leading for the last 4 days in the month and on the last day a total guesser (Laugh) tipped up Talent who won the Oaks at 20/1 and pipped me on the line. The horse never won again. I noticed a similar thing yesterday with a 100/1 winner no less, D to the poster, but you have to feel for the runner-up.

George

There was another forum member owned runner yesterday, Loch Ness Monster (Leicester 1.40) who finished 3rd. He actually ran in a listed race behind Sangarius and Pogo once (2018) and although only 3rd in a class 5 yesterday ran better than his placing may suggest.

Good luck and have a nice afternoon all.
Report happysandwich June 1, 2021 7:13 PM BST
Although Yarmouth 7:30 Cloudy Dawn is a HTS I’m leaving the race alone because it was 1/4 LTO beating Persaria 5.5 lengths.

It’s 6/4 at the moment if anyone fancies a win bet.

Good luck
Report happysandwich June 1, 2021 7:37 PM BST
Cloudy Dawn 1st 2.70

There’s them that know and them that think they know.
Cool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 2, 2021 12:43 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

My suggested lay yesterday, Persaria finished 3rd @ 4/1 although considering the late drift made it pointless, matched at 2.62 overnight (not by me) and a short price (7/4) when i posted as mentioned but i can’t control the odds of course.

Not much time today but i did spot another shortie that i thought was a lay candidate at least, albeit risky and certainly not for a P/L post Oceanline (1.30 Nottingham) around even money, average form and is very one paced. Not sure the long straight here will benefit. Up in trip by 3f although related to a stayer. An obvious and well backed favourite but he’s short enough at 2.12 (odds that i layed at earlier) and in a tricky field where 3 others are in with a shout. Hollie takes over from TQ who has ridden him in all 6 races but goes to Kempton this evening.

Happysandwich,

WD on the swerve, the winner was my nap in the daily comps although it wasn’t difficult to find (i didn’t back it).

Good luck and have a nice afternoon all.
Report tanglefoot June 2, 2021 1:48 PM BST
Thx,bankrupt again,send money soonest.Grin
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 2, 2021 1:58 PM BST
Tanglefoot

Laugh

I had to pick what was probably the best horse of the day, matched at 4 and BSP 1.61. Won easy, but i didn't fancy it.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 2, 2021 1:58 PM BST
best backed
Report tanglefoot June 2, 2021 2:05 PM BST
Don’t mind me Andrew.Wink
What is your opinion on laying horses,as the value compared to backing is very poor,as the general opinion in gambling is to get a bit of value and plenty of professional punters will not have a bet if they can’t get around 6/4 of their picks.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 2, 2021 2:43 PM BST
Tangle,

Laying is not for everyone and it's certainly not the 'Holy Grail of punting by any means. You need a decent strike rate of course as you're more often than not backing odds-on and when you hit 3 of 4 winners in a row (as you will) it takes a good few successes to retrieve the losses (3 at 5/2 = 8 successful to get back into profit).

Having said this, you also have to bear in mind the layers ratio of success against the backers. I don't have issues with odds-on anyway as i back them although if i have a decent bet it's nearly always in the top class races. I would never be lumping on in a handicap on the AW for example.

Generally speaking, i would sooner be a layer than a backer, every time. On the P/L part of this thread everyone knows my odds limit is 5/2 and i rarely lay above 5 or 6 away from it. I made an exception with Love (Coronation Cup) as i was convinced she wouldn't run and even stated this on here.

Irrespective of the above, whatever anyone says the % of punters that win pre-race long term is very small and those that do need a lot of discipline. I have to admit i doubt i could do it for a living (a completely different mindset required) but thankfully i don't have to.

Good luck.
Report tanglefoot June 2, 2021 2:50 PM BST
Cheers Andrew,thx for the reply.
Report Lucky Luciano June 3, 2021 7:04 PM BST
Al Aasy on the drift, ground concerns? rain forecast but not much so much now, so depending on how much the course has been watered, it’s even a very hot sunny day today
Will it matter ?
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 4, 2021 11:05 AM BST
Good afternoon Lucky/All,

With respect to Al Aasy it’s difficult to know how the going will impact his true running although WH is on record as blaming the ground for his poor run at Goodwood. He also did the same at Newmarket on G/F but that was only his 2nd run and he’s improved dramatically since so we can ignore this. Epsom is built on chalk so any rain is not going to make a significant change (by race time at least) and i guess good/good to firm in places is the best we can hope for.

From a race perspective he’s the one more likely to show improvement and maybe go to the top of the middle trip division in time. He’s looked exceptional in his last couple of runs winning without coming off the bridle but the opposition has certainly helped and Logican is not the horse he was. I’m not a fan of the AOB pair but either could win if the fav fails to shine of course. I can’t see the filly winning and the quirky Piledriver will probably wander off to the common late on.

I backed him ante-post at odds slightly under the 3 directly after his last win but only to a mid-double figure stake, it was all i could get matched. I will back him again this afternoon to round it up but if the going had been on the soft side i would certainly have played more. Putting betting to one side i would like to see him hose up, it’s good for the sport and he would become a strong contender for the Arc that is often run in soft these days.

I think WH could have a double, i like the likely favourite Irish Legend in the preceding race (2.35) but all the world and his brother will probably be backing it.

Changing topic, i had a RP/bet/forum free day yesterday (public holiday here) and took the train down to Salzburg using a Bavaria day ticket that allows travel just over the border if you’re on the DB train from München. I’ve been before so didn’t need to do the usual touristy trek and it was nice being able to eat in a restaurant (still not the case here). If anyone has never been, i can really recommend it.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
Report TheAnorak June 4, 2021 12:56 PM BST
Just to add that Turn On The Charm runs this evening, Doncaster 7:23. That's the race time, not his train back to Newmarket.

Thought for the day - on this day in 2001, the first Golden Anorak horse won the amateur riders race at Goodwood. The same race still opens the card there this evening, same distance, same rating band.

Penalty value to the winner in 2001 was £3,950 - in 2021 it's £3,490.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 4, 2021 1:44 PM BST
Thank you Alan, i hadn't seen the evening cards. Not without a winning chance although he would need to be impressive to get into the RA Hunt Cup of course but that is in 12 days time so a bit soon anyway. If he wins in any fashion it franks the form of Loves Dream, i will watch the race.

£3,950 in 2001 is worth £5,840 today allowing for inflation, it's understandable why owners are complaining. In the unlikely event i ever own a horse, it will be trained in Ireland or France.
Report ashleigh June 4, 2021 2:13 PM BST
andrew, i too have backed al aasy, rain looks to be getting well into the ground, now good to soft. have to have a saver on albaflora, think she could be the danger, good luck.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 4, 2021 2:23 PM BST
Ashleigh

Thank you.

Is soft in the official going description now ? Shocked

No time to watch ITV but will catch the race later.

Likewise, Good luck
Report PHS June 5, 2021 10:54 AM BST
ttt
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 5, 2021 12:35 PM BST
Good 'thundery' afternoon Guys,

So much for Al Aasy the purported next superstar who may have looked it in a couple of recent runs but was disappointing yesterday. When JC made his move inside the 2f pole he was full of running and looked to be going easily (1.01 on here) but didn’t find much in a battle and was simply outstayed by a better horse on the day. Backers (including myself) shouldn’t give up on him just yet, he didn’t appear to handle the camber that well (hung left) the going was very tacky and the field bar one were well beaten, but it may transpire that’s as good as he is. Even Camelot looked good beating trees.

I don’t know what to make of Snowfalls superb win in the Oaks, is she something Al Aasy isn’t or was it a freak result based on the course, going and poor opposition. Post-race i immediately thought of Frankels Queen Anne 11L romp but then Turtle Islands win in the Irish 2000 guineas came to mind as a similar comparison (won by 15L). That was on heavy going and he never won again. For the time being i will give the filly benefit of the doubt as her burst of acceleration was very impressive and if this wasn’t a freak result she will certainly take a world of beating wherever he runs, even more so against the colts with the allowances.

On to this afternoons meeting i have already backed Bolshoi Ballet ante-post (small at 3.15) for the Derby but will not be adding to it. He ticks all the boxes and may even be better over 12f; i was actually very surprised at Willie Carsons comment during a recent interview “will he stay, he wasn’t pulling away at Leopardstown”.

He’s not a good thing and take him out of the race, it’s wide open, but the winner for me.

The one i can’t have is John Leeper (stated on here several times) and at lower odds i would be laying him but i rarely lay double figure odds so i’m hoping the Frankie loving housewives back him in their droves. I do have a plan B though and that is in the 2TBP and 3TBP markets. All the media attention relating to the horse is based on emotion (with a little potential thrown in) but inexperience, lack of quality form, the course (didn’t look comfortable on the dip at Newmarket) the going and even the trainer are good reasons for me to lay him. If there is an outsider, maybe Third Realm is a viable option but odds of 15 don’t exactly look appealing.

Another EW and at similar odds may be in the Epsom Dash (3.45) Recon Mission who is a CD winner (LTO) and ran in this race in 2019 finishing down the field (won his following race). The draw is an unknown but there appears to be plenty of pace on the inside and at odds of 16 for the win and various place markets he could give backers a decent run off a lowly mark of 87.

If there is a shortie to back on the NH, then Captain Tom Cat (Worcester 13.45) would be my selection, he looked a natural and one going places on chase debut at Aintree LTO. He wasn't the best of these over the smaller flights but fences could be his making and as long as he and Mill Green don’t cut each other’s throats up front i can see him making all. Odds of 1.98 are not for everyone, but i expect him to win.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

PHS

Thanks for the ttt.
Report Lucky Luciano June 5, 2021 2:04 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew
Whatever the reason, antics beforehand, ground, camber,  jockey, it was a rollercoaster ride with the price going out to over 3 on here before the start and then looking like the winner only to get done, Cry I think I can confidently say he is the first horse I have had a decent bet on get beat at 1.01 (backed again before the massive drift)

Btw never been to Germany or Austria but Salzberg definitely one on our list ........well will be one day Grin
After yesterday not getting involved today although might have a small bet on century city once going is known

WD with Cat Tomcat
Report Lucky Luciano June 5, 2021 3:21 PM BST
Swerved Happy
Report glentoby June 5, 2021 4:17 PM BST
Forum appears to have woken up to Mendax.In.Munchen?Cool
Report happysandwich June 5, 2021 4:40 PM BST
First and only WIN bet I’ve had this year.

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Bolshoi Ballet
2.44
£50.00
£72.00
Ref: 235211146062 Matched: 16:30 05-Jun-21

CryCry
Report glentoby June 5, 2021 4:43 PM BST
We know,you tipped it in the team compy YSDC!!!
Report glentoby June 5, 2021 4:44 PM BST
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOps apologies it was one of your handlers!!!DevilLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 6, 2021 12:57 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

Summary of yesterdays post.

Bolshoi Ballet wasn't so nimble footed yesterday and very disappointing, in fact i knew my fate at the 3f marker and i guess most backers did. If this is the best 3 year old Coolmore has (as Michael Tabor intimated in the ITV interview) then the others must be sub-standard but every horse can be forgiven a poor run.

How good a Derby was it remains to be seen and i suspect the inconsistent going has played it's part at the meeting per se anyway, the field was strung out like a NH race and there were other instances where winning distances were far greater than normal. Was there a Golden highway on the rail ?

I couldn't have backed the winner yet it appears many did, perhaps it was a Lemming effect and as i mentioned yesterday take out thre favourite and it was a very open race.

Thankfully John Leeper did what i expected and a lay of the 2TBP and 3TBP bets paid out, how this horse was 7/1 for the race at one stage surprises me. Having said that he will improve of course and may well turn out as his superb breeding suggests but i suspect we will see more of him as a 4 year old as i can't see a summer Group 1 win.

Captain Tom Cat won easily although i had to take a few spots under the 1.98 at time of posting (amazingly he was matched at odds between 3 and 4 the night before). He wasn't as fluent as he had been at Aintree but was always in control and i will watch his entries as he looks a half-decent novice chaser in the making.

My EW on Recon-Mission failed to pay out by a single place (6th) but he ran well enough, just not good enough.

On to this afternoon and i'm laying the AOB trained St Marks Basilica in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) at Chantilly (3.00) although i thought he was going to be shorter in the betting (currently 4.8). If there is an Epsom like result then the Aga Khan owned Makaloun may be the one to provide it. A good winning strike rate (5/6) ground not an issue, course winner with a turn of foot. Odds around 14 for the win and 3.5 for 3TBP.

I can't see In Swoop being beaten in the 1.40 but the odds will reflect this. He runs here instead of the Coronation Cup that in hindsight he may well have won. I think he will mop up a few 'soft' group wins this season but his chance of winning an Arc was last year.

Lucky

Well done on the swerve, i didn't play in the race (watched it) but if i had, it would have been the same selection. I actually thought he had held on when they went past the post.

Salzburg is well worth a visit, compact, picturesque, good transportation and interesting enough to see in a couple of days. The fortress (with funicular) is a typical tourist location and recommended, but i've never been bothered with the Sound of Music tour. It was actually my 3rd time there, the DB Bavaria ticket is a bargain and you can add family members for only a few euros more (max 5 persons per ticket). I can really recommend going in December when the Christmas market is on, they are superb, and for anyone that hasn't seen one in either Germany or Austria, take the wife or gf, they are well worth it.

Happysandwich

Unlucky with your Derby bet, you obviously read i backed it as well albeit to a tad less stake than you (ante-post) and like me could see it wasn't going to win from some way out.

WD with the discipline, far better than mine. By the way, no duplicate selections are allowed in the team comp (i guess you were not aware) but DD played a wild card for you that gained a few points.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report second again June 6, 2021 1:38 PM BST
I remember an old saying,if you think you have 2 derby horses in your yard you have none.The thinking was that your derby horse should be head and shoulders above the rest and trained for that day.The last few years have made me think it should be changed to if you dont have a few derby horses in your yard you have none.
  The last time I was in Salzburg it was 28 Austrian schillings to the pound.(1976)The scenery you see from the train from Munich to Salzburg is stunning.
Good luck with your plays today.
Report Lampus June 6, 2021 1:45 PM BST
In Swoop HappyHappy
Report Ahoy 1982 June 6, 2021 2:01 PM BST
Hi Andrew, did you see the cut bolshoi ballet obtained in the derby, after 150 yards apparently, could explain the performance as I thought he never looked happy, https://twitter.com/MCYeeehaaa/status/1401219107106738176?s=08
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 6, 2021 2:23 PM BST
Second Again

Thanks. I totally agree with the scenery on the train journey from München to Salzburg, it's worth the ticket price for this alone especially by Chiemsee Lake and the Alps. The first time i went i stayed the weekend albeit on the German side of the border in Freilassing (a 10 minute train trip to Salzburg) as hotels in the city are pricey in summer. There's not much in the town (high street shopping and outdoor eating) but the hotel was fine for what we wanted and half the cost.

Lampus

Thanks. I thought he was a good thing and when i saw 1.70 i snapped it up but imagine my surprise as he drifted to 1.91, i really thought he would be around 1.60. BSP 1.89. I didn't see the race but he went 2.88 IR.

Ahoy 1982

Thanks for the Twitter link. I hadn't seen a photo of the cut (not good) although the RP reported it and as you intimated maybe a valid reason for the performance. I can't have it that he's 17L worse than the winner. Lets hope he fully recovers to show us if he is decent.
Report brigust1 June 6, 2021 4:00 PM BST
Not been on the Sound of Music tour? How disappointing Andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 6, 2021 4:43 PM BST
Hi Laurie,

For fans of the Sound Of Music i can understand the novelty but it's a typical popular tourist trap (no pun intended). There are many variants on the theme but most of the coach tours are 4 hours long, cost around 50 euros per person and basically you are only taken to locations of the movie that you can do yourself by public transport anyway, in fact i've seen several of them, albeit for other reasons. You can also stay in the Von Trappe house overnight at cost.

I appreciate there is historical fact behind the story but you have to look for it amongst the Hollywood interpretation and Salzburg has a lot more 'culture' to offer. If it's music you like, it's also the birthplace of Mozart ........... his home is just around the corner from Starbucks Wink
Report Lucky Luciano June 6, 2021 6:19 PM BST
And not far to the Eagles nest, another historical site but for more darker reasons
Always remember my cousin going to visit the Alamo and saying there was a Burger King or something similar opposite
Report happysandwich June 8, 2021 3:30 PM BST
First time I went to Munich I visited Dachau concentration camp and there was an elderly chap sitting on a stool still sorting out the shoes and tying the shoelaces together.

Is the camp  still there or have they built on the site?
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 8, 2021 4:39 PM BST
Lucky

Sure i'm aware of the Eagles Nest and local friends tell me the area is very beautiful, but i'm not good with heights so i will never see it. It's the highest stop in Germany although you have to take an elevator afterwards.

Happysandwich

There is a memorial site at Dachau, but i've never been so i can't comment other than that. It's only about 40 minutes drive from the city, but i doubt i will ever go. I've been on the Berlin Wall tour before and it leaves an impression listening to the tour guide; relatives actually saw loved ones shot trying to escape over it. Dachau must be harrowing.
Report brigust1 June 8, 2021 5:04 PM BST
My brother has visited The Alamo, that's another target for me. I remember going to watch the film with my Mum when it first came to Oxford. I was off school for some reason and she took me. When we came out I was given the choice of bus ride home or an ice cream. I took the ice cream. My Mum was a strong cowboy books fan and at the time and I thought she took me to the pictures, much later it occurred to me she wanted to go to see the film herself but because I was home she had to take me. I never had the chance to ask her and I really hope she went for herself.
Report glentoby June 8, 2021 5:06 PM BST
Mendax..............nap!!!Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 8, 2021 5:16 PM BST
It's the highest bus stop in Germany

Hi Laurie,

Only been to US twice, once to New York for 1st wedding anniversary (a lifetime ago) and in recent years to Los Angeles for Saab (business).
Report glentoby June 8, 2021 5:17 PM BST
But Never Been To Paris!!!! NAPWinkWink
Report brigust1 June 8, 2021 7:38 PM BST
This will not surprise you Andrew but I am a Disney World fan. Been many times, taken the children, their grandmothers and now the grandchildren. We were supposed to be going next year but I don't think it will be the same with masks, we'll wait and see.
Report glentoby June 8, 2021 7:55 PM BST
Did you get your will sorted Brigust?????????DevilLaughWink
Report brigust1 June 8, 2021 9:28 PM BST
Yes, I got my will sorted thank you. Glen.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 9, 2021 10:11 AM BST
Hi Laurie,

No surprise at all, Disneyworld is good, i've taken my own daughter and i'm sure many on here have had similar experiences. I think it's beneficial from a mental perspective to forget the stress of modern life and be part of the fantasia for a day, it keeps you young as well Wink. Hopefully you get to go next year and by then mask wearing will be in the past.
Report brigust1 June 9, 2021 11:43 AM BST
Hi Andrew, I totally agree it is such a happy place to be. I'm just not sure that will get over wearing masks. I don't go on many of the rides but I love the shows and other entertainments.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 9, 2021 5:27 PM BST
Alan

If you're looking in, good luck later, it looks an open race.
Report happysandwich June 11, 2021 2:02 PM BST
This weeks gardening tip.

https://www.mr-fothergills.co.uk/Home/OLD-News-Events/Sweet-Pea-Sir-Henry-Cecil_2.html#.YMNdmuvTXVA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__4PNxn8rsQ

There is a Sir henry Cecil rose but it’s out of season at the moment.


Pot full of dirt and a bit of trellis it would grace any balcony.Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano June 13, 2021 12:27 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew, happy sandwich

Scorchio today so no gardening, looking forward to the big game and of course RA next week, another meeting I have attended regularly in the past but not this week.
I saw you mentioned in another thread you were at Ascot to see Frankel in 2012
So was I, it was a beautiful day and wanted to get a good picture of Frankel in the parade ring, long story short, took a proper camera, but a malfunction, it all went wrong ended up with a brilliant picture of bullet train instead and Frankel from a distance
Gutted Cry
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 13, 2021 1:41 PM BST
Afternoon Lucky/Happysandwich,

A sunny day here as well although not as hot as London but warm enough to sit outside a hotel resturant/bar by the lake (Ammersee). Mind you i think half of München had the same idea .

Correct, i was at Ascot for Frankels Champion stakes race in 2012, i was also over for his QA and 2nd Sussex wins that year. I don't remember it being a beautiful day (more overcast) but certainly an emotional one. I loved the horse and when TQ did a 'lap of honour' in front of the stands it was the first time (of 2 occasions) i ever got a bit teary eyed on a racecourse. I knew i wouldn't be seeing horse or trainer again and thought Henry wouldn't last the year, he was very ill. I had a lot of time for him, both as a trainer and a person, the mould was broken after his passing.

I haven't seen so many Royal Ascot meetings (that i like) but i'm not a stranger to Ascot per se although my last visit was for the Cyrname v Altior race back in 2019. When i lived in UK i was often there, or Windsor as i lived about 40 mins away at the time. It's my favourite racecourse although i loved the old Longchamp even though it needed a lick of paint (as does Chantilly). I hate the new grandstand.

I will be laying Battaash at RA (Thursday) and posting it as i feel quietly confident he will not be winning. Happy

Good luck.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 13, 2021 1:42 PM BST
was the second time
Report ashleigh June 13, 2021 1:44 PM BST
andrew , don't wait until thursday to lay him, he runs tuesday.Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 13, 2021 1:52 PM BST
Ashleigh

Can i claim a typing error Laugh

Seriously, thanks, i had it in my head it was Thursday.
Report Lucky Luciano June 13, 2021 3:18 PM BST
Andrew
My mistake it was the year before, 2011, just looked it up and watched the replay run in sunshine and Frankel was 4/11 I think I backed it to win by under 3 lengths or something and lost, Crazy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 14, 2021 10:47 AM BST
Morning Lucky/All,

No worries, it must have been the QEII you watched.

On Champions day 2012, there was a lot of ran around and early morning even rumours of Frankel not running although i always doubted this even though it was soft. Mind you considering i had some decent money at ante-post odds and went over to watch him, i wouldn't have been a happy camper if he had been withdrawn.

On to today, i think Langholm (2.39 Carlisle) is a lay (currently 2/1f). If ever there was a horse without a best trip, this is one of them. Started life over 5f, gradually moved up to 14f, then a 16f hurdle and thereafter reverted to various trips down to 6f. A poor field, but he's in this class for a reason.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 14, 2021 10:32 PM BST
Posting the lay selection tonight as i will be busy tomorrow.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 14, 2021 10:32 PM BST
Lay Post

Royal Ascot 3.40 - Battaash

A 7 year old Dark Angel gelding trained by Charlie Hills in Lambourn, Berkshire.

It's pointless me spending time disecting the form in detail and typing my opinion of it as i normally do, we all know it anyway, this is one of the best sprinters of recent years and up there with many of yesteryear as well, but the following is a condensed CV at least.

Although he won nicely in a class 4 novice stakes on debut at Bath back in 2016 i doubt connections gave a thought that he was going to develop into anything like the sprinter he became in time. His next 4 runs all ended in defeat although the last of them showed promise finishing 3rd in the Group 3 Cornwallis stakes

The transformation from 2 to 3 years was the start of his rise in the sprinting ranks winning 4 of his 5 races culminating in the Prix de L'Abbaye where he was very impressive. As a 4 year old he ran to a decent level of form and he won the Nunthorpe as a 5 year old. Last year he was unbeaten in 3 runs including the Nunthorpe for a 2nd time.

So what is there not to like.

The obvious starting point is he's now 7 years old and having his first run since August 2020. His training has been interupted after sustaining a fracture that even as recently as April was being touted as a reason he may not run at RA. Charlie may have got him fit (runs well fresh) but is he fit enough to win ?

Ascot is not his ideal track, he prefers the billiard table flatness of York or Haydock and it's a stiff finish. His winning record on the track is 1/4 and although he won last year there was no crowd due to covid and he's a horse that doesn't handle the prelimininaries well. Spectators are back (albeit limited) temperatures are expected to be high tomorrow and this may also add to the chance of him getting excitable expending energy pre-race. It's also a better field for the race this time around.

The field is decent, there is certainly plenty of pace and he has to concede 10 lb to the exciting 3 year old filly Winter Power, but other dangers are lurking including Que Amoro who ran him to a length at York in the Nunthorpe.

The risk is obvious, the form is there for all to see, he has 6lb and upwards in hand on ratings and at his best would win, but tomorrow is a chance to catch him when he may not be at his imperious best. I certainly wouldn't be laying him under different circumstances.

Looking at the odds, 2/1 is generally available and considering he's been odds-on in 8 of his previous 11 races backers must think Santa has arrived, but it also shows there are others that share my view. Post race backers may be thinking 2/1 was the best bet of the RA meeting if he hoses up, but i don't think he will, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 3.00

Good luck all.

14-Jun-21
17:53:57    15:40 Royal Ascot
Battaash - 5f Grp1
Betfair Bet ID 1:235885819246 | Matched: 14-Jun-21 18:26:29    Lay    3.00    50.00    --    100.00
50.00
Matched
Report Mr_Spreadsheet June 15, 2021 7:56 AM BST
good luck Andrew
Report brigust1 June 15, 2021 11:03 AM BST
Hi Andrew. I never lay the best horse so good luck. No bet for me.
Something you MAY like? Wink

https://issuu.com/weatherbys/docs/royal_ascot_insider_day_1_with_adverts
Page 12.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 15, 2021 11:35 AM BST
Hi Laurie,

Laying under 5/2 means i'm often laying the best horse in the race and i certainly am this afternoon. Even the most ardent layer would say it's a risk and i'm not trying to look clever in doing so, but sometimes you have to think out of the box or go with a gut feeling. He's not a good thing by any means.

Many thanks for the link, is there something specific in there WinkLaugh

Seriously i will read it this evening, a busy Bee here.

Good luck and have a nice afternoon. Very warm and sunny here.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 15, 2021 11:37 AM BST
Thanks Mr Spreadsheet
Report happysandwich June 15, 2021 11:47 AM BST
https://issuu.com/weatherbys/docs/royal_ascot_insider_day_1_with_adverts


Page 12

Every little helps.
Grin

Good luck for Ascot everyone.
Report england_v_south_afri June 15, 2021 3:37 PM BST
GL Andrew !

Had a small lay as well.
Report ashleigh June 15, 2021 3:46 PM BST
well done andrew, too much on the pace.
Report england_v_south_afri June 15, 2021 3:47 PM BST
Superb !! Cool

wd
Report second again June 15, 2021 3:47 PM BST
Well done Andrew.Cool
Report second again June 15, 2021 3:47 PM BST
Well done Andrew.Cool
Report werbie June 15, 2021 3:47 PM BST
Well done Andrew!
Report happysandwich June 15, 2021 3:51 PM BST
Well done Andrew
Report adamanty June 15, 2021 3:53 PM BST
Spot on again Andrew.
Well done.
Report Lucky Luciano June 15, 2021 3:56 PM BST
I noted a big confidence so joined in as well thanks Andrew
Had Oxted in the comp as well
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 15, 2021 3:59 PM BST
Thank you Guys, much appreciated.

I managed to find a conference room to watch the race on ITV. Happy

More later.
Report brigust1 June 15, 2021 4:19 PM BST
Yes, well done Andrew. More brave than me.
Report PHS June 15, 2021 4:40 PM BST
WD AndrewCool

Poetic Flare - WOW!
Report brigust1 June 16, 2021 9:31 AM BST
Good morning Andrew. When I said I never lay the best horse in the race I mean on ratings and, as I don't bet in handicaps I mean in Group type races. I know you often lay the supposed best horse in the race, that is your MO, but I couldn't do that. And you do it very successfully. Have a good day. It is hot here this morning with, hopefully, rain on the way.
Report TheAnorak June 16, 2021 9:59 AM BST
Morning Andrew,

Here's your starter for ten - with Lord North now out, do you think Coolmore will resist the temptation to provide Armory with a Group 1 win, which will boost him as a stallion, when a win for Love would make no difference to her value at all.
Report brigust1 June 16, 2021 10:47 AM BST
^ You aren't suggesting for one minute, I hope, that Ballydoyle can be devious, where big money is involved?
Report happysandwich June 16, 2021 11:59 AM BST
^
It don’t sing or dance, but it talks.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 16, 2021 12:22 PM BST
Good 'summer' afternoon Guys,

Forecast is for 29c/30c in the München area (and warmer later in the week) although i guess it’s similar in UK.

Battaash was always a risky lay, we all knew this (i actually like the horse and backed him a couple of times last year) but as i stated in my reasoning, yesterday was the day to take him on although i was very surprised at the SP. The fast pace was predictable (even he couldn’t cope with it) and this played into hands (or should this be legs) of the well backed winner Oxted who is a decent sprinter himself. Ascot is not the track for Battaash (1/5 there now) but to be fair he ran well enough in 4th and must have been short IR when he was travelling well and about to take up the running but the stiff finish there is against him.

Next stop Goodwood presumably where he will be trying for an incredible 5th win in the Group 2 5f Qatar stakes and i will certainly not be laying him on that course. Has any horse won the same group race for 5 years running, i can think of 4 sequential wins (Ye@ts in the Ascot Gold Cup for example) but maybe the forum gurus can find one with 5.

On to today i thought Lady Bowthorpe (RA 3.40) is a lay although she has drifted beyond my 3.75 odds limit and a lively EW outsider in the Royal Hunt Cup is Irish Admiral (best odds 16/1 with Betfred) if we forgive his run LTO of soft going.

Laurie and PHS

Thank you

Alan

I never had you down as a cynic. WinkLaugh

I guess anything is possible and what you state makes a lot of sense, but to be honest although she’s a superb filly i’m not convinced she’s a superstar anyway (at least not yet). I actually napped Lord North in the Ascot KO competition.

I doubt i would lay Love, but there are questions marks against those she beat as a 3 year old, it’s her first run of the season against the boys and 3 of her rivals are rated higher than anything she met last year. Armory doesn't have a lot to find on ratings and should be fitter. Interesting race, but i wish Lord North had run (going permitting of course).

Busy here so no time to post more. Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
Report TheAnorak June 16, 2021 12:50 PM BST
Andrew,

Five in a row was achieved by Further Flight, trained by Barry Hills. He won the Jockey Club Cup at Newmarket in late September/early October, every year from 1991 to 1995 inclusive.
Report sludge June 16, 2021 1:41 PM BST
Andrew its Wednesday !   I thought i was cracking up , and had to go and check myself !
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 16, 2021 4:01 PM BST
Alan

Many thanks, i thought you would know. I couldn't think of any.

Sludge

You're probably not aware but due to Brexit EU have changed the time difference between Germany and UK from 1 hour forward to 1 day back. Laugh. Seriously, it's the 2nd time i've got the day wrong, i must be losing it.

Changing subject, a pity about the drift on Lady Bowthorpe above my odds limit, i thought the 3 lb penalty would be her undoing and there was never going to be much between her and Queen Power anyway (short head today).
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2021 9:37 AM BST
Lucky Luciano

Bad luck in the Ascot competition yesterday, a superb score, but i've just read that you have a 2nd bite of the Cherry thanks to the good sportsmanship of your rival undertaker. I know you look in here, so hopefully you see it in time.

Good luck
Report Lucky Luciano June 17, 2021 10:24 AM BST
Morning Andrew
Yes just looked in and saw that, totally unexpected but a nice touch from the undertaker to point out,

In the first race I never back names but I just have to have a couple of quid on Lucci, madness if you take it seriously I know but have to have fun as well.
WW horses not run that well although a second yesterday and Lucci is supposedly one of the better ones I read somewhere and they only win over 5F so can’t let It go without an interest.

Good luck today in the comp and in financial terms as well
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 17, 2021 1:19 PM BST
Afternoon Lucky

Thanks, i may need it.

A difficult RA card this afternoon albeit typical of Gold Cup day. I liked Summa Peto EW in the Britannia stakes, but you could pick half the 29 runners and still not get the winner.

Good luck with Lucci in the opener, i've gone with the AOB runner Cadamonto in the hope he's another Ten Sovereigns (same sire).
Report PHS June 19, 2021 10:01 AM BST
ttt
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 19, 2021 12:58 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys,

No lengthy Saturday thoughts post today as it's a scrocher here (31c) so i'm going to try and find a free spot by the lake (some hope) and watch racing and football. Hopefully the latter is better than the rubbish on display by my countrymen last night, to think i actually placed a bet on England and Italy to contest the final (odds of 23) a couple of days ago, that's a tenner never to be seen again. Laugh

Last day of the Royal meeting and it probably can't come soon enough for some due to differences in the going, an unreliable draw and a few hard luck stories. One unhappy camper will be AOB who pre-Tuesday would have been on many punters lips for top trainer but from a total 30 runners he has only yielded a solitary win, very poor by his standards.

Another 9 entries today (after the NR's) and although he could win the opener on the well touted 2022 Guineas favourite Point Lonsdale would you want to be lumping on at 11/8. Not for me and i think it will be a blank day for him if it doesn't win.

I will be laying Broome in the Hardwicke (3.40) not a horse i'm a fan of, or Japan for that matter, but the latter is at double figure odds so i will leave this one.

I put up Nahaar @ 10/1 LTO when he was mugged on the line by Starman (who would have been fancied for this before being withdrawn) and i'm not deserting him today in the Diamond Jubilee (4.20) as he's a horse i like, won over CD and has a good turn of foot. The only question mark is the going, will he handle it (has won on good to soft).

In the other sprint race on the card, the Wokingham (5.00) no less than 9 runners have been withdrawn already that will make it easier for my very tentative EW selection Indigo Balance (currently 25/1) but the draw is guesswork really as is trying to pick the winner.

I will be a layer of the likely favourite Kings Lynn owned by the Queen (there goes my chance of a mention in the New Years honours list). He has a 5 lb penalty (although this is nullified by being 7 lb well in on ratings) and ran here on Tuesday. The course will not be an issue but it should be noted he's only won on the flat tracks of Doncaster and Haydock. Odds of 7/2 are too short.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

PHS thank you for the ttt.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 20, 2021 8:19 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

UK racing is typical of a Summer Sunday afternoon but there's a quality card at Chantilly with the Prix de Diane (French Oaks - 3.00) that is occasionally won by a very decent filly including Treve, Zarkava and Divine Proportions this century. Some of the older guys will remember Allez France, Pawnese and Indian Skimmer who beat another superb filly in Miesque in the race. Whether there is another star in this afternoons field remains to be seen but there is a runner i'm interested in and already backed at 10 on here earlier.

Sebila Spain won a couple of small races in the provinces (the first by 9L) and was thrown in at the deep end in her next run going for the Prix Saint-Alary, finishing 4th after a troubled run. She raced from off the pace (Zarkava style) and after rounding the bend jinked a little before showing a good turn of foot running between and past several in the field, eventually beaten only a length, staying on well.

The 3 placings run again and i feel she has the beating of these over an extended 100 metre trip on the same course. The going will not be an issue although the outside draw could be, but given her style of running if she can get a clear run in the straight i expect her to pick the leaders off.

Link to the Prix Saint-Alary race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jQpG-YNkX0

Kevin Ryan makes the long trip to Chantilly from North Yorkshire with Atomic Force (2.15) although he will have to improve on a class 4 win at Hamilton LTO to win. Wesley Ward makes a detour from Ascot on his way back to California and his runner Napa Spirit is sure to be fancied in the group 2 sprint but i will be a layer if the odds are low enough (High st odds currently 5/2).

He was well backed (2/5f) on the basis of purported good 3f breeze up trials but he didn't look anything out of the top drawer in his gallop duel with Ruthin (subsequently beaten at Royal Ascot) and the form is ordinary at best (not franked). It was good going then, but soft this afternoon

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
Report jumper3 June 20, 2021 9:00 AM BST
Andrew

I haven't posted on here, more of a 'dip in occasionally lurker'. I am old enough to remember Indian Skimmer though I was a mere lad when Allez France was strutting her stuff in the 1970s. I am hopeless at laying so do always listen to your advices and thoughts. Thanks for sharing. It's great to see some on here willing to regularly willing to share their well thought out musings. Have a good day.
Report PHS June 20, 2021 10:39 AM BST
Andrew,
That Sebila Spain might need further still to bring out the best in her. Some very good prize money on offer in that race. As usual, puts the UK to shame.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 20, 2021 1:48 PM BST
Jumper3

Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated, i'm happy that some actually read my posts. When i started the first lay thread in April 2018 i was posting a selection everyday but i was home for 5 weeks then and had much more free time than i do these days (work constraints).

I enjoy doing it and at least the P/L selections show a decent overall profit since day one, but i would welcome more 'Andrew' time to post them more regularly.

PHS

I'm not so concerned about the trip as i am the outside draw. The going is expected to be soft (showers are forecast) and it's a long, stiff finish at Chantilly.

To give you an idea of the draw effect only 4 horses drawn in double figures have made the frame in the last 10 years although one of them Star Of Seville (ridden by Frankie Dettori) did win from stall 15 (same as Sibila Spain). I would prefer a much lower slot of course, but if she can get into a prominent position directly after the bend she has a decent chance. The 3f run-in will play to her strengths (good turn of foot and stays well) and runners rarely go for home before the chapel a couple of furlongs out anyway.

Its crazy really that the draw has such an impact on a group 1 race but we all know Chantilly is not the only course affected by such. I'm hoping we see a Zakarva like run in the straight (she also came from way off the pace) but she was a bit special.

As for prize money, i agree.

Good luck all.
Report hologon June 20, 2021 2:18 PM BST
Thanks Andrew for napa spirit  lay advice well done
Report hologon June 20, 2021 2:18 PM BST
Thanks Andrew for napa spirit  lay advice well done
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 20, 2021 2:32 PM BST
Thanks Hologon.

Napa Spirit was beaten a fair way out behind an impressive Yorkshire trained winner. I managed to lay at 3.80 but unfortunately he was just outside my limit for a P/L selection. I think some of Wesleys are over-bet sometimes.

Link for the race

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vxs_UB4pxpY
Report Andrew.in.Sweden June 20, 2021 3:45 PM BST
Sebila Spain (13/1) finished 4th but 150 metres from home was travelling strongly looking like the winner (odds on IR) and even 50 metres out i thought my 3TBP bet was safe.

I was surprised she made most of the running (came wide from an outside draw) and i suspect this is the reason she tired quickly in the last 30 metres and was pipped close to the line by a couple of others in a bunch finish. She ran well but after doing all the donkey work earlier simply didn't have anything left in the tank. I will watch her entries as i feel she could be half-decent.

4 of the first 7 home were drawn in double figure stalls !
Report Lucky Luciano June 20, 2021 5:28 PM BST
Watched the race, looked all over the winner 150m out but as you say getting over from that draw paid in the end, had a tenner at 18 so at least got a good run for my money.
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