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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
happysandwich
When: 20 Feb 21 11:00
Good morning PHS,

Rest assured Andrews making double sure he picks up the winning thread.
Hence the delay in posting.
Grin
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Feb 21 12:26
Good afternoon Guys from a sunny, Blue sky day, west of München (16c forecast).

Racing fans are spoilt today with some half-decent cards on both sides of the Irish sea including 8 graded races. There are also UK/Irish runners at the meeting in Riyadh that features the Saudi Derby. I'm not really interested in the latter card although i thought the John Gosden trained Mishriff (5.40) looked overpriced (EW) between 8 and 9 (low liquidty at the moment).

Most attention will probably be on the Betfair chase at Ascot where the sulky but talented Cyrname will be looking to redeem himself for a 4/11f defeat in this race last year. Most readers know i have always thought his BHA rating was exaggerated but if he doesn't win this afternoon with 13 lb (and more) in hand of the field and looking as though he will race much more prominently (that will suit) will he ever win a decent grade 1 again.

He had an even larger advantage in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby (giving 16 lb to the runner-up) and although he won well enough, i thought it was only a workmanlike performance in a not so particularly strong grade 2.

No doubt there will be punters who think he's a good thing (i read some posts) but you need an act of faith to be lumping on at even money.

I will obviously be interested in watching Riders Onthe Storm who won this race last year, albeit more so to see if my fun ante-post at crazy odds on him to win the Ryanair is worth keeping. I can't see him winning on this seasons runs but he would have a squeak if able to replicate his last Ascot run and he is 2/2 at the course. If i can get a tad below 6 for 2TBP i will have a fun stake on him.

OK on to my usual Saturday banker and EW (no selections last weekend).

Banker selection - Wincanton 3.18 - Song For Someone

Last night i was thinking to post Monrial at Haydock (course will suit) as i was surprised to see him trading in the 2.50, but he's now 1.80 and i was a little loathe to go against Nassalam who i like and also put up as a banker himself last month. I still think Monrial will win but decided to take what i consider a slightly safer option in Song For Someone.

Since his first run out of juvenile races in a lowly handicap at Fontwell (November 2019) he's improved in the ratings by 22 lb and is now an established top class hurdler winning his last 3 (all grade 2). He has a good attitude, stays well and although he has to improve to figure amongst the places in a Champion hurdle in March, it's not impossible by any means.

If there is a negative, although he's won on soft, in 3 races on heavy he was beaten but he's a better horse now. The course shouldn't be an issue.

Top rated today, 2 lb in front of Goshen (who i feel should be layed) and Navajo Pass could make the pace with the selection close up. He's the banker bet around 2.14.

EW selection - Ascot 2.25 - Hill Sixteen

Still looking for my first winner from 5 EW selections on this thread and my lucky pin has fallen on this one (apologies to connections in advance). Nigel Twiston-Davis has improved him since being transferred from Sue Smith in November 2020 winning a couple of handicaps, one a 19.5f hurdle (class 3) and in his penutimate run a 24f chase (class 2).

Was fancied for the Tommy Whittle at Haydock (11/4f) but was never really in the race and was PU. His wins came in a short period (only 9 days apart) and one was a hard race on heavy going, so perhaps it was all too much.

Had a 2 months break since and is relatively lighty raced for a 8 year old. Up in class (a limited listed handicap) and off a mark of 137 is one of the lower weights. From 15 runs (including a P2P) he's finished in the first 4 places 11 times. Trip and going shouldn't be an issue. At win odds of circa 14.5 and 3TBP (4.0) and 4TBP (3.0) he could give EW punters a decent run.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Feb 21 12:30
Morning Happysandwich

LaughLaugh

Believe it or not, i was helping C with her Uni study (online from UK) although perhaps hindering is probably the better term to use. I'm an aerospace engineer, what do i know about child psychology.

Good luck today.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Feb 21 12:37
He had an even larger advantage in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby (giving 16 lb to the runner-up)

Should read ......

Rated 15lb ahead of the runner up, but was only giving 2 lb in the race.
By:
Trusty
When: 20 Feb 21 12:53
Thanks Andrew, GL.

Glad you swerved Monrial because I thought at 25/1 on here, you have to throw £20 on Progressive getting the filly allowances in the mud (Brigust1 will be all over it!). Nassalam can be too free and in a 4 runner race anything can end up happening. £20 to win £500 on a Henderson horse, who is 2/3 in this race, not quite as good as Nichols but I am sure she is not the complete no-hoper the betting makes out.
By:
Lampus
When: 20 Feb 21 12:54
All  the  best today  ANDREW Happy
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 20 Feb 21 13:02
Afternoon Andrew
Nico could ride 3 for Henderson at Haydock
Instead has one ride in the first at Ascot odds on Gallyhill, put up a good time and backed off the boards last time; well thought of and cost 450,0000
Lots of short prices today so I’m hoping this one goes in
Good luck today
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 20 Feb 21 13:26
Betting told the outcome before the race started,
gallyhill traded at 1.22 which saved me this time Grin
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Feb 21 13:49
Trusty,

There are worse 25/1 shots and you don't need a lot on at these odds, so good luck with it.

I don't think there's a lot between the front two in the betting, i just favour Monrial who i also feel will turn out the better in time. The course should suit (connections are bypassing Cheltenham for Aintree). He doesn't want to let his main rival get too far ahead though.

I noticed Hell Red let the form down a little in the Wincanton 1.38 (beaten at 4/11f).

Nassalam has a tendency to jump to the left and whilst it may not be significant on this track it's never ideal of course.

Lampus

Thank you.

Lucky

WD on the trace. Skelton stable is in incredible form.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Feb 21 13:51
WD on the trade.
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Feb 21 15:29
Wow. That has screwed the Champion Hurdle. You can't back it and I wouldn't lay it.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Feb 21 15:44
OR 172 Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Feb 21 19:47
Good evening Guys,

A short summary of my Saturday thoughts that could have been better.

As stated in the post i was torn between two for the banker bet and sods law i chose the loser (Song For Someone 11/10f) to post. He was easily brushed aside by Goshen who looked rejuvinated and back to his best (a good winning time).

Whilst he has to improve again to win a Champion Hurdle he's going there with a shout although Triumph winners (morally at least) don't have a particularly strong record in the race (Katchit was the last dual winner in 2007/2008). The favorite never really looked to be travelling well and i wonder if the heavy going was against him and i doubt he will be taking up a CH entry now.

The other one i mentioned was Monmiral (evens) who won easier than i expected and has to be up there with the leading juveniles. He looked the winner from some way out and could take some beating at the Aintree festival. I napped him in the daily competition but this was scant consolation for posting the other.

Cyrname disappointed (again) and although he looked to be going well enough in the early stages the writing was on the wall at the 9th when the eventual winner Dashel Drasher took him on. I've never really been a fan of the horse and although breathing problems were reported as a reason for the PU post race, he's not one to be lumping on in future. The hype surrounding the 'highesr rated horse in training' has been well and truly exaggerated.

Backers of the EW selection Hill Sixteen (posted at 14.5, well backed down to 17/2) knew their fate early after mistakes at the first 2 fences and he never looked comfortable after that. A slow jump at the 4th was all the reason Sam needed to pull him up. He's another who should be left unbacked until he returns to form (if he does).

It wasn't all bad, i did mention a 8/1 winner in the Saudi Cup.

There are also UK/Irish runners at the meeting in Riyadh that features the Saudi Derby. I'm not really interested in the latter card although i thought the John Gosden trained Mishriff (5.40) looked overpriced (EW) between 8 and 9 (low liquidty at the moment).

From a financial perspective, i had an OK day starting with Osaka in the Australian tennis (i'm a big fan and mentioned her on my threads before) although a loss of £122 at the start of afternoons racing was a dampener. Backing Song for Someone was a blip but laying Nassalan and Cyrname went in my favour along with a few other smaller lays that were all successful. Having said that, how much did i have on Mishriff at 8/1 ? Not a cent, i fell asleep on the sofa. Sad

Another good day of racing tomorrow including a decent card at Newbury featuring the Betfair Hurdle (many will still refer to this as the Schweppes Gold Trophy). Nigel Twiston-Davis has won it 3 times in the last 7 years and he could go close again with Guard Your Dreams who i think looks over-priced at 32 on here.

Prior to this i will be playing up some of my afternoon winnings on Daniil Medvedev (@ 2.08 the 'outsider' of the two finalists) in the mens Australian tennis open early tomorrow morning. Novak Jokovic has an incredible record in this event but i feel we are going to be hearing more about his opponent in the years to come even though he has yet to win a grand slam.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Hi Laurie,

I agree you can't lay Goshen in the CH, but he could be an EW bet.
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Feb 21 23:11
Hi Andrew. I couldn't back him but it would be great for the Moore's.
My abiding memory of the Schweppes is in 1970. After Persian War was beaten at Haydock, where they forgot to put on the tongue strap, he was available at 100/6 for the Schweppes so my mate and I had a nice bet on him. The night before the race he was down to 6/4f and there was a serious threat of frost so I left a bucket of water outside the ponies box just to check. Sure enough when I got up early it was frozen solid. I knew my fate then and got my money back. It still rankles.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Feb 21 09:10
Good morning Guys,

Another superb winter day, not only related to the weather in southern Germany but to the racing world with 6 graded and 3 listed class races spread over several meetings in UK and Ireland.

Over on the other side of the world at Sha Tin the feature race was the Hong Kong Gold Cup where Golden Sixty battled on really well for his 16th win from 17 races. He is one tough cookie, watching the VR i thought he was beaten.

There are racegoers that often mention Frankel never went to France or USA but Golden Sixty has only ever raced at his local track that is amazing considering the reputation he has. I guess connections feel they can mop up valuable races at Sha Tin and considering he's won over £6 million you can hardly blame them. Will we seen him at RA in 2022.

No Sunday thoughts as such (banker and EW) but considering the quality of racing today a few offerings to ponder over.

There are 3 runners at least i will be against and i wouldn't want to be lumping on Clans De Obeuax at odds of 2.10 even though i like the horse and he is 2/2 at Newbury. Not a layer, but a race to watch nevertheless.

Lay Espanito Bella - 1.05 Navan
Lay Champ - 3.00 Newbury
Lay Tiger Roll - 2.47 Navan (3TBP)

In the Betfair hurdle (3.35 Newbury) i've had a fun EW bet on the Nigel Twiston-Davis trained and lightly raced Guard Your Dreams (34.0/6.8) who runs off a lowly 135. Improving and the going will not be an issue. He was receiving a fair bit of weight (13 lb) when he won LTO but i liked his performance. Of course this is different ball game, you could pick half the field (24 runners) and not get the winner but at the odds you don't much on.

Against this i'm thinking of putting him up in the daily naps comp as a speculative chance of promotion into the permiership (guaranteed if he won) so that probably adds 7 lb. Laugh

I do have an official lay selection, but not matched yet, hopefully another post later.

Hi Laurie,

Those years around the 1970's were wonderful on both codes. Sir Ivor, Nijinsky, Brigadier Gerard, Mill Reef, Persian War, Bula, Comedy of Errors and Lanzarote to name just a few. Has there been such an era since.

The bookie John Banks once quoted during the Cheltenham TV broadcast that he would eat his hat if Persian War won his 3rd of his Champion hurdle. I'm not sure if he did. A wonderful horse, an adjective i would not use about his selfish latter owner.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Feb 21 12:32
Lay Post

Navan 1.05 - Espanito Bello

A 7 year old Turgeon gelding owned and trained by Barry Connell in Nurney, County Kildare.

Dam was unraced, two offspring, both lightly raced and 3 wins (all from the selection).

An overall win strike record of 3/8, one from each NH discipline over 16f and 19f.

Barry has only had the horse for his past 3 races (transferred from Keith Clarke in October 2020) all beginners chases. May have needed the race first time up after a break of over 7 months when 7th of 10 over 20.5f.

Improved a little next time out (as you would expect) finishing 4th of 11 over 19f at Naas but made several jumping errors.

There are two ways of looking at his win LTO (same CD as penultimate race) beating the probable favourite Coko Beach who re-opposes this afternoon. A couple of the fences were dolled off so there were 4 less to jump (in total) and it made for a long run, maybe this suited the winner who showed the better pace. The WPM odds-on favorite didn't run any sort of race (beaten again since) and the field were strung out like washing at the line. The 3rd has since franked the form. He wasn't foot perfect although he did win easily.

Coko Beach has since won a decent grade A handicap (25f) at Gowran Park and the trip on this course will suit him better than Naas.

Espanito Bello is stepping up in trip (by 5f) and in a couple of races over staying trips (24.5f and 22.5f) hasn't excelled although each time he was coming off a break to be fair (and is today, albeit shorter). Only once raced at Navan (poorly) but the same mitigation could apply.

Navan is one of the stiffest tracks in Ireland that gets very testing on heavy going, you certainly need stamina over the 24f and rain is forecast prior to racing. There are 3 fences in the home straight and a short run in of a furlong so track configuration is different to his last chase win.

A small field of 5 runners, but i would be surprised if the outsider won. I think Coko Beach could win, but Mr Hendricks will not be faraway and it's more open than the betting might suggest.

The risk is can he translate his 19f run to 24f on this stiff course and up in grade (considerably). If he can, layers have a race on their hand, but i have my doubts, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 3.05

Good luck all.

21-Feb-21
09:26:56    13:05 Navan
Espanito Bello - 3m Grd2 Nov Chs
Betfair Bet ID 1:225012062232 | Matched: 21-Feb-21 09:46:32    Lay    3.05    50.00    --    102.50
50.00
Matched
By:
Lampus
When: 21 Feb 21 12:54
Good Luck ANDREW  Happy
By:
dr . atkins
When: 21 Feb 21 13:03
1.15 good ball comes with warning got tongue tie on and if it dont work today going to have wind op comes with a big ?
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Feb 21 13:07
Great Days Andrew. Persian War was trained by Dick Hern, before I went there, that is one reason I followed him. You missed out Royal Palace who beat Sir Ivor in the Eclipse. I had a good bet on Lanzarote when he won the Champion Hurdle, Pitman gave him a great ride. And of course there is Cheltenham 1977. Bula died died on the Champion Chase, Lanzarote died in the Gold Cup and Killiney died in the novices chase. Terrible Cheltenham for horse racing that year.
By:
Lampus
When: 21 Feb 21 13:12
Good  Start  ANDREW  Happy
By:
doorman99
When: 21 Feb 21 13:17
Barry has had the horse all the time, Henry Clarke was his private trainer until he got his own licence.
By:
PHS
When: 21 Feb 21 13:18
WD AndrewHappy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Feb 21 13:19
Thanks Lampus. We were helped by the last fence mistake, but he's not the best of jumpers anyway and was sketchy at several. The important thing is he got beat. Happy
By:
second again
When: 21 Feb 21 13:21
Well done Andrew,a good start to the day.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Feb 21 13:24
PHS/Doorman99

Thanks and i wasn't aware it was with Barry from the start.

Laurie

Pendil and Captain Christy from the same era.
By:
punchestown
When: 21 Feb 21 13:31
1.08 jumping the last but it got beat.Luck evens itself out in the course of time I suppose.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Feb 21 13:43
Punchestown

Yes, layers (including me) definitely had the rub of the Green at the last, but i've had a few won by a head and as you say it probably evens out over the course of time. To be honest it wasn't the best selection i've put up recently, but i didn't post yesterday and work days are often difficult.

Mind you i've booked 2 days working remote next week and trying to extend that for 4 days starting March 16th. Wink

Second Again

Thank you.

I want Champ out of the first 2 places now.
By:
happysandwich
When: 21 Feb 21 14:27
Thanks Andrew,

Navan 2:15 La Chanteuse 5.89 P.U.

Pot now £126.27
By:
Lampus
When: 21 Feb 21 14:54
Tiger Roll Happy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Feb 21 18:47
Good evening Guys,

My earlier posts did OK with all 3 suggested lays beaten, including one that was the official selection for the P/L. I thought the Tiger Roll 3TBP lay was always safe on the heavy ground and was surprised to see he was matched at 1.33 IR (for the 3 places).

Champ ran better than i expected (2nd) and unfortunately (from a financial perspective) i changed my mind and layed him in the 2TBP market instead of the win.

Luck was on my side when Espanito Bella (2nd) blundered at the last fence, but they are there to be jumped. As stated earlier i'm working remote a couple of days next week, so maybe a mid-week lay selection or two, the latter a rarity these days.

Is Champ a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in the making, who knows, but not for me, at least this year. I would be of the same opinion with respect to Tiger Roll and the GN, although the latter is not really going to be a layble price, unlike the former.

My Betfair hurdle EW selection Guard Your Dreams (posted at 34.0/6.8 4TBP) was well backed (SP 14/1) and ran better than his 6th place might suggest. He was badly positioned when the starter let them go at the 2nd attempt (likes to race prominently) and for most of the race was in the rear, in fact approaching the 3rd last he only had one behind him (ignore the race reading comment on RUK, watch the VR). Ran on very strongly after the last and was only beaten 7L.

I'm not suggesting he would have won, but he may have gone close. One to note for the future, but his run will not have gone un-noticed. I napped it in the daily comps, so my quest for promotion to the premiership will have to wait another month.

Dr.atkins

WD with your lay selection and apologies i didn't notice it before.

Happysandwich

You owe me a drink. Laugh Seriously, WD, i noticed the last one got beaten as well.

Have a nice evening all.
By:
punchestown
When: 22 Feb 21 08:47
I would be surprised if Tiger Roll goes to Aintree under that weight.Looks a shadow of its former self.
By:
isleham
When: 22 Feb 21 11:48
referring to brigust's earlier comment seem to remember Winter thought Killiney could have been the
best of the lot..think he was killed in an Ascot race hence the Killiney Chase being run there
By:
brigust1
When: 22 Feb 21 12:15
You are right Islesham. Well spotted. Memory plays tricks sometimes. I should check before I write. He won at Cheltenham never died there.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 25 Feb 21 20:09
Good evening Guys,

I was looking at the cards at lunchtime and considered posting Jeans Maite as the lay selection in the last at Southwell (8.30). I don't see him as a 5f/Southwell horse even though he did win over the trip on Tapeta. He was 3.0 then, but is 3.70 now, so higher odds than i really wanted to post him at.

After reviewing the field this evening the problem i see is lack of viable rivals, i think only 3 or 4 can win and one of them is an outsider, Navajo Dawn (25 or 5.0 at 4TBP). I may lay JM myself and have a fun bet on the outsider.

Good luck all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 25 Feb 21 20:36
Jeans Maite 2nd and Navajo Dawn 3rd @ 28/1 Happy
By:
happysandwich
When: 25 Feb 21 20:40
I only watched the race but very well done Andrew.

Jeans Maite looked like it was going to lead all the way but Aguerooo wore him down right at the finish.
A little tap on the left-hand side of the computer helped it over the line.Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 25 Feb 21 20:49
Thanks Happysandwich.

JM was the pace in the race and i expected her to lead up, but her win was on Tapeta. She's raced at Southwell 7 times now without winning including over 5f that is really too short for her.

As for Navajo Dawn she's won twice over CD and the last time (January 2020) was off a mark of 62, 13 lb higher than this evening and the jockey was taking off another 3 lb. 28/1 was a decent EW chance.

Thanks for the computer tap Laugh
By:
TheAnorak
When: 26 Feb 21 11:19
Morning Andrew,

"Is Champ a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in the making, who knows, but not for me, at least this year."

He's a nine year old now, so if not this year, then almost certainly never. The last ten year old to win the Gold Cup was Cool Dawn and the one before that was Cool Ground, so he hasn't even got the right name!

That aside, just wanted to point out an interesting entry for the Fred Winter, called Baladin De Mesc. Still trained in France, where his last run was a third place (well beaten) in their 3-y-old championship hurdle last November. He had previously beaten the winner of that race in a Listed hurdle at Auteuil on Sept 1st. His presence could have a significant impact on the handicap for this race, as his French rating of 68kgs, translates to 150 over here, which makes it surprising that he isn't also entered in the Triumph.

No idea if he'll be sent over, but seems odd to make the entry unless there was some intent, even if just to put the horse (50% owned by the trainer) in the shop window.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 26 Feb 21 20:36
Evening Alan,

A good point with respect to 'cool' and 10 year old winners of the Gold Cup (Laugh) i hadn't even considered Champs age when i posted 'not for me, at least this year'.

In my opinion it's a very open race next month, even allowing for a two time winner in the field, but i just can't see Champ winning although 10 x 9 year olds have won it in the last 30 years (2001 no race).

Native River could have a shout if it turned soft/heavy, but when was the last time an 11 year old won.

Thanks for the Baladin De Mesc/Fred Winter heads up, i looked at his French form earlier, connections will certainly be preying for rain if they decide to come over. You mentioned he had previously beaten the winner of the 3 year old championship race, it was the same with the runner-up (finished in front of him 3 races ago). Interesting (generally 33/1 for the Cheltenham race).

I noticed your ex-stable had a winner at Wolverhampton this evening, wasn't this the one you recommended the trainer to buy ?
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 26 Feb 21 20:41
Evening Guys,

I received an email flyer from the Jockey Club today if anyone is interested in a Cheltenham preview night (online of course).

https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/events-tickets/the-festival-preview-night/

Join Alice Plunkett as she hosts the official Cheltenham Festival 2021 Preview Evening on Sunday 14 March at 8pm. Joined by three previous Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning jockeys Sir Anthony McCoy, Ruby Walsh, and Festival ambassador Barry Geraghty as they share their top tips and ones to watch at this year's Cheltenham Festival.

You can watch live on our website, or via our Facebook or Youtube channel on the night.
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