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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
Gaze733
When: 07 Feb 21 13:35
Quilixios steaming like a tank.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 07 Feb 21 13:39
Being backed like its already won
By:
Gaze733
When: 07 Feb 21 13:47
Form 111 never loses.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 13:50
Lucky

Agreed. I wouldn't have posted at 4/6 and even 2,36 was a risk, albeit one i was prepared to take. Different class today but Youmador was very poor.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 07 Feb 21 13:50
Gaze,u said the opposite yesterday,make up your mind.
By:
Gaze733
When: 07 Feb 21 13:56
Did I say 111 never wins? No.
By:
punchestown
When: 07 Feb 21 14:02
Youmador's jumping gone to pot.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 07 Feb 21 14:08
Was backed as if they knew youmador was going to run like a pig, so easy money for the mob...

was always going to be a hard lay after that for you Andrew, basically he was 2 on if you had this information, someone did
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 14:27
Lucky

No snow here for a while although we had oodles a while back. Quite mild at the moment but getting colder from tomorrow and snow is forecast. I will work remote for a couple of days anyway so stay warm indoors.

Good luck with Minella Indo.

Appreciate it didn't look like a Supreme winner to me, but after my abysmmal lay selection performance in the opener perhaps i should keep quiet.

My daughter went for an interview in München on Friday as an assistant in an international childs nursery. She was particularly keen on the job, her BA is in Psychology and she's doing her UK Masters (online due to covid) in child studies. She got the job ! Starts on 15th, i'm really chuffed for her.

Ed

Good to hear from you and WD with the Honeysuckle CH bet it's certainly looking good now. She obviously has to be on a short list for the race, more so with the 7 lb allowance.

When you mentioned Newmarket i assume you didn't mean you were standing there making a book for this afternoons racing Wink. Seriously i know you live nearby.

Good luck if you back Monkfish later, i have (1.73) albeit small 3 figures. I noticed there is a NR so my odds will be subject to a reduction factor.

Hope we can meet up at Newmarket or Sandown when we get back to some sort of normality.

Punchestown

I couldn't understand why he raced from so far back, was the stable on the GE gamble Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 14:31
Harry

I couldn't believe the backing for it, but someone either knew he was pretty decent or his main rival would run very poorly. Crap happens and it is horse racing.

Not the best lay selection i've made in hindsight and risky as i stated in the reasoning, but at the odds i was prepared to take it.

Good luck.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 15:20
Monkfish Love

What a horse
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 07 Feb 21 16:21
Nearly ended with feeling like a buffoon
Went to lay at 2.78 but somehow pressed the wrong button and ended backing at 2.74
Only noticed as the race was about to start.
Took a chance, waited and layed bet back IR and again as I was going to originally at a better price HappyHappy
Have to admit can count times made that mistake on the fingers of one hand which is pretty good in nearly 20 years

Monkfish was so impressive, takes your breath away, as they say.
What a wonderful stable WM has.

Anytime your kids do well makes you feel proud especially with getting a new job, well done to her.
Gotta be new outfit for a new job ! on Dad courtesy willie mullins monkfish Laugh

15:40 Leopardstown
Minella Indo - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:223822275736 | Placed: 07-Feb-21 15:32:49    Back    2.74    52.00    --    --
-52.00
Lost
07-Feb-21
15:48:18    15:40 Leopardstown
Minella Indo - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:223823616734 | Placed: 07-Feb-21 15:41:39    Lay    2.50    56.09    --    84.14
56.09
Won
07-Feb-21
15:48:18    15:40 Leopardstown
Minella Indo - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:223823680165 | Placed: 07-Feb-21 15:41:55    Lay    2.40    0.85    --    1.19
0.85
Won
07-Feb-21
15:48:18    15:40 Leopardstown
Minella Indo - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:223823758959 | Placed: 07-Feb-21 15:42:31    Lay    2.40    52.00    --    72.80
52.00
Won
07-Feb-21
15:48:18    15:40 Leopardstown
Minella Indo - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:223824166150 | Placed: 07-Feb-21 15:45:49    Lay    2.14    52.00    --    59.28
52.00
Won
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 08 Feb 21 14:47
Gaze733 07 Feb 21 14:47 

Form 111 never loses


Fairyhouse 2.30

Royal Kahala 111 (finished 2nd)
Gauloise 111 (finished 3rd)

Horse Racing > Fairy 8th Feb : 2m2f Grd3 Mares Nov Hrd
Showing 1 - 1 of 1 selections
Selection
Odds    Stake (£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/Loss (£)
Gauloise    3.25    50.00    Lay   
08-Feb-21 14:20
50.00

Wink
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    50.00
Market subtotal:    50.00
Commission @ 4.10%:    2.05
Net Market Total:    47.95
By:
Gaze733
When: 08 Feb 21 17:45
Gauloise wasn't the fav, Kahala traded at 1.2 IR.

Anyway, I have started tracking my lays when they won LTO and 4 out of 6 horses won, the last one was Regina Dracones at 3.8. There are plenty of favs that didn't win LTO, I'll just stick to those for now.
By:
Gaze733
When: 08 Feb 21 17:47
Like today Cathals Star pulled up LTO, and guess what, today he pulled up again, absolute clown fav.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 08 Feb 21 18:19
Good evening Guys,

Lay Post Summary (yesterday)

Leopardstown 2.40 - Quilixilos - Won 4/6f (layed at 2.36)

Not much to say in my defence really. Very heavily backed (2nd fav drifted significantly in the 15 minutes before off time). In the race per se he was always in the front division not far off the pace, travelled well, moved up to challenge after the 3rd last and even at that stage i knew it was winning. Led just before the final flight and didn't have to be hard ridden to win cosily.

Youmdor (2nd fav) jumped and ran like a bull, never in the race.

I stated in the reasoning it was a risk as a 3 race unbeaten gelding with high profile connections and i wouldn't have posted if it had been odds-on at the time (i don't post odds-on although several have finished as such). I got it wrong this time, but i'm not averse to taking on unbeaten or short priced favourites, they don't all win of course.

Having said that my recent lay selection form isn't good (albeit several high risk) so i will probably be a little more hesitant before deciding on the next few and hopefully revert to profit. One of the selections below won in a photo, if this had got beaten the thread would be in profit, but this is laying (and playing catch-up). I don't like losing on the P/L selections anyway.

Lay selection status (including most recent result post for clarity)

16 Jan 21  Warwick 1.50 - Fiddlerontheroof @ 2.98. SP 15/8

Current Progress 3/4
Current Form WLWW
Daily Profit +£50
Running P/L +£56


27 Jan 21 Lingfield 3.35 Outraqe @ 2.58. SP 6/4f

Current Progress 3/5
Current Form WLWWL
Daily Loss -£79
Running P/L -£23


30 Jan 21 Newbury 2.25 - Marie's Rock @ 3.30. SP 5/2

Current Progress 4/6
Current Form WLWWLW
Daily Profit +£50
Running P/L +£27


31 Jan 21 Naas 1.15 - Bachasson @ 2.38. SP 11/8

Current Progress 4/7
Current Form WLWWLWL
Daily Loss +£69
Running P/L -£42


07 Feb 21 Leopardstown 1.40 - Quilixios @ 2.36. SP 4/6f

Current Progress 4/8
Current Form WLWWLWLL
Daily Loss -£68
Running P/L -£110


Saturday banker finishing positions

W 2 W NR PU


Winners at 7/4 and 10/11 so a small profit although it doesn't count on this lay thread P/L.

Saturday EW finishing positions

5 7 PU 4 11


Lucky

Well done with the lay of Minella Indo and glad it worked out well in the end. I've done the same in the past, pressed back instead of lay (and vice versa) although i tend to be more careful these days.

I layed Melon (7/2 in the same race) who along with backing Monkfish were my two recommended bets. The latter was impressive and it was great to see him jumping so well. On his debut chase he jumped to the left at times and next time out he wasn't foot perfect but yesteday he seemed to enjoy being out in front from the off, i don't think i've seen a better round of jumping this year from any horse.

When he had a runner in front he appeared to concentrate on watching how the leader did it (he's a novice after all) but i could be reading into something that isn't there and maybe he's simply getting better with experience.

I mentioned yesterday that we may have seen at least one Cheltenham festival winner on Saturday (Chacun Pour Soi) well add Monkfish to the list. If they get there in one piece (remembering last year) i really can't see anything to beat these two in their respective races and i will certainly be backing both on the day.

Mind you, talk of Monkfish winning the 2022 Gold Cup is a little premature.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
By:
Gaze733
When: 08 Feb 21 23:12
Backing favs is easier than laying. I can do both but I'm still more comfortable backing a good horse than laying a steamer at BSP. If you had 2 new people who know nothing about horses, where 1 had to back only favs, and the other had to lay only favs, I guarantee the latter would go broke much faster. The backer might actually make some profit with a bit of luck, the clueless layer will never make a profit.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Feb 21 14:07
Lay Post

Warwick 2.50 - Sky Pirate

A 8 year old Midnight Legend gelding trained by Jonjo O'Neill in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.

Dam was a 3 time winner under rules and 5 offspring have produced 6 wins with Sky Pirate the best of these.

A 2/6 win record over hurdles with a highest rating of 131.

Has taken time to come to hand over the larger obstacles winning 2/12 (his last two runs in fact) including LTO over CD.

Both these races were class 2 handicaps and in his penultimtae run was racing off the lowest weight. Won well enough LTO although mistakes by half the 6 runner field certainly helped his cause (runner up also lost a shoe).

It appears that stepping back in trip has improved him, this could be so, but is he a true 2 mile chaser. It's not so long ago he was racing over 3 miles and only months ago over 20f.

A small field of 4 but only 3 have a realistic chance of winning even though the outsider is receiving weight. A grade 2 race and occasionally won by a decent novice, Flagship Uberalles, Voy Por Ustedes and Long Run being the better ones.

The probable favourite Allmankind is already a grade 1 winning novice chaser and Cheddleton has already proven himself at a lower level. Both were rated higher over hurdles than Sky Pirate and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Cheddleton won, i feel he's over-priced @ 9.2 although i would rather be with the favourite.

The risk is with a couple of front runners in the field and it could set it up for the selection who will appreciate a strong pace (stays well) although both jockeys will be aware of this. I expect Allmankind to lead from the start with Cheddleton a couple of lengths off the pace. Harry Skelton has a good record at the course.

The Warwick fences take some jumping and the 3 protaganists do jump to the left on occasion although this shouldn't be significant on this track. Sky Pirate will also have to jump quicker than he's used to against these two and the 5 fences in the back straight are a test for any novice. He has fallen before and wasn't foot perfect at Cheltenham.

This race is probably being used as a sighter by JJ to determine if he has an Arkle candidate on his hands or one that is probably better suited to one of the lesser races (maybe even back up in trip).

I see Sky Pirate as being more of a handicapper (albeit a decent one) and he's meeting better rated rivals than LTO who i feel will be more suited to this sharp track (even allowing for his CD win) hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 3.30

Good luck all.

15-Feb-21
13:10:32    14:50 Warwick
Sky Pirate - 2m Nov Chs
Betfair Bet ID 1:224470382888 | Matched: 15-Feb-21 13:31:44    Lay    3.30    50.00    --    115.00
50.00
Matched
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 15 Feb 21 14:19
Afternoon Andrew
hope we get the same result as last time you layed SP at Ascot in November 19 
if I remember correctly
By:
Lampus
When: 15 Feb 21 14:30
Good Luck  ANDREW  Grin
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Feb 21 14:36
Lucky

You have a much better memory than me.

When i saw the card last night i vaguely remembered the name but didn't bother to read back on my threads. I'm working remote from home today so i had more time to review the cards and type a post. I'm comfortable with the reasoning, but it is a novice chase.

Good luck.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Feb 21 14:36
Thank you Lampus
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Feb 21 14:48
I’ve got 3 HTS’s in that race and Sky Pirate is one of them so they are all “No Bet” for me.
I’ll be cheering the other 2 to win.

Lucky,

Just noticed you posted on the Paddy Power free £10 thread.

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31690339/paddy-power-10-free-bets

…and there’s me thinking you were something in the City.LaughLaugh
By:
Lampus
When: 15 Feb 21 15:17
Thank you ANDREW  HappyHappy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Feb 21 15:22
Thank you Lampus

The 2nd last was a scary moment for IR punters at short odds but the winner is different class. A pity about the odds drift but i don't have control over that of course.

I was happy enough to lay the runner-up twice (3.30 and 3.50).

Horse Racing > Warw 15th Feb : 2m Nov Chs
Showing 1 - 1 of 1 selections
Selection
Odds    Stake (£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/Loss (£)
Sky Pirate
*3.40    100.00    Lay   
15-Feb-21 13:10
100.00
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    100.00
Market subtotal:    100.00
Commission @ 4%:    4.00
Net Market Total:    96.00
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 15 Feb 21 15:22
Well done @@Andrew Sky Pirate
Missed the price but got 3.2 IR
Heart in mouth 2 out otherwise as expected
H. Skelton just said “he’s a freak remarkable and brilliant”
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 15 Feb 21 15:26
Happy sandwich,

Been going in at least once every week since the pandemic started so I must be doing something right
By:
Trusty
When: 15 Feb 21 15:27
Thank you Andrew. Price long gone when I looked so left a lay up I/R near EVS and got matched. Excited Didn't see the race as LV wasn't working for a change!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Feb 21 15:36
WD Lucky and Trusty

Evens was a good price to lay at (yes easy to say after the race). I thought Harry always had everything under control and it was only at the 2nd last i thought "oh dear" (or words to that effect Wink) but he landed running and from then it was draw away time.

He wasn't fluent today and will need to treat the Cheltenham fences with a little more respect in the Arkle where i think he can run into a place.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Feb 21 18:24
Lay Post

Newcastle 7.10 - Global Warning

A 5 year old Poet’s Voice gelding trained by Chris Cwyer in Newmarket, Suffolk.T ransferred to current yard from Ed Dunlop in December (same owner).

Dam was a two winner on the AW and all her offspring (8) have won (including The Tin Man) bar one.

A win record of 2/16 (2/12 on AW) both on the Tapeta at Newcastle (raced at the track 5 times).

Since being gelded in July 2019 he regressed in terms of ratings from 80 to 73 in his penultimate race (that he won) never running to a mark higher than his previous race.

Ran well enough when winning that race albeit in class 5 (0-75). The form has been franked at lower marks (although the runner-up was recently beaten off 72) and he is up in class (4)(0-85) this evening.

Raised 5 lb for the win (to 77) and was well backed (5/6f) on the strength of it LTO but finished 5th (beaten 3.25L) after being slowly away. There was only one horse below him in the weights for that race and all the field have been beaten since (barring the 4th who hasn't run).

Raised another 6 lb to a mark of 84 for the effort, 11 lb higher than his last winning mark (did win off 77 in April 2019).

There doesn't appear to be a lot of early pace in the field (Spartan Fighter could lead) that may not suit.

A small field of 7 runners but it looks a very open sprint handicap.

The risk is it's the trainers only runner at a faraway track with an in-form apprentice on board. Against this, he is higher in the weights, more to do than his last win and in a race that may not be run to suit, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 3.10.

Good luck all.

16-Feb-21
18:00:45    19:10 Newcastle
Global Warning - 6f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:224560736201 | Matched: 16-Feb-21 18:04:42    Lay    3.10    50.00    --    105.00
50.00
Matched
By:
harry callaghan
When: 16 Feb 21 18:55
I worry about this one a tad Andrew not that I think your handicapping isn’t good...just that he has a good draw and the others aren’t particularly well weighted like he isn’t, which makes him nearer 7/4 so a watching brief without trying to look clever because I’m not...anyway you know what your at so wish you well, I’m not playing and hope you you nail him...I always read your thread as your reasoning is always logical but I’d just shut your eyes on this oneGrinkeep well
By:
Gaze733
When: 16 Feb 21 18:55
I laid it too, free muni.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 16 Feb 21 18:57
I will say the snake at the bottom of the weights always gives you chances Crazy
By:
Trusty
When: 16 Feb 21 18:58
Thank you AIS; shall try and play up yesterday's lucky winnings or return them!

See ROTS is declared for the Game Spirit at Newbury on Sunday and also in the BF Chase over 2m 5f on Saturday at Ascot but as the price implies surely had little chance conceeding 6lb to many and over 2m at Newbury and although 2m 5F is more suitable he is surely too far wrong against Cyrname & gang; he's only 8 though and you would have thought NTD can still pick up some nice races with him.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Feb 21 19:06
Harry,

Thanks. I think it's a tricky race and maybe Devils Angel is the EW value but there's only 7 runners.

Good luck.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Feb 21 19:15
48 IR Sad

I thought Devils Angel was going to win at one stage.
By:
Trusty
When: 16 Feb 21 19:16
Unlucky, 4 way photo and Marco the difference. Megan should have waved her stick out a bit more! As for Faye what gap was there there!
By:
harry callaghan
When: 16 Feb 21 19:19
Putrid Andrew boy did he get it all good trip wise, unlucky pal...still wasn’t a bad lay just they were all so closely matched and so it proved, I’m afraid the claimer is just riding real good...the tinkler horse I’ve always liked but the wifey didn’t come good this time to save the bacon

I’m on a 6 week break as have had burn out I'm afraid...a horrible experience for anyone that reads form but just feeling my way back in without wagering as without the drink am struggling with the bottle...keep well
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Feb 21 19:32
Thanks Trusty/Harry,

Watching the race i thought i was in, but as stated in my post there was an in-form apprentice on it. I was happy with the reasoning but it's horse racing and although there was only a head in it, it may well just have been 10L.

As for ROTS, i guess they will go for the Betfair Chase, he won it last yhear when Cyrname was 4/11f. I don't see the point of NTD running him in the Game Spirit, he's not a 2 miler these days. I've sort of given up on my Ryanair ante-post bet, but it was only a fun stake at large odds. I agree they will pick up a decent race with him one day, although he was poor LTO.

Good luck.
By:
PHS
When: 20 Feb 21 09:56
ttt
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