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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
punchestown
When: 31 Jan 21 13:02
Bachasson as weak as dish water all of a sudden,all the money for Beacon Edge.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 31 Jan 21 13:27
Sad
By:
ashleigh
When: 31 Jan 21 13:29
bad luck andrew, the other 2 looked to need the longer trip more than bachasson.Surprised
By:
Gaze733
When: 31 Jan 21 13:30
Laying horses with a form of 11 or 111 is a waste of time in the long run imo, probably break-even at best.
By:
PHS
When: 31 Jan 21 13:32
Missed itLaugh. Saw the earlier post but got busy and forgot to look back.
By:
punchestown
When: 31 Jan 21 13:37
In hindsight Flanagan would have been better off taking the fav on from the get go and put its jumping under a bit of pressure and use its own stamina a bit better,he rode it like a 2 miler.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 31 Jan 21 13:40
Ashleigh

Rounding the bend i knew my fate, Beacon Edge was disappointing. It was always a risky lay anyway, but i was happy with it, in fact i layed it twice.

Bachasson
*2.42    100.00    Lay   
31-Jan-21 11:45
-141.50
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    -141.50
Market subtotal:    -141.50
Commission :    0.00
Net Market Total:    -141.50

Gaze

The first lay on this thread had 111 in his previous 3 races and got beat. 111 doesn't always make them world beaters and i've layed many hat-trick or 4 timer seekers. You need to know what the 111 represents, but today i got it wrong.

PHS

WD on the swerve.
By:
Gaze733
When: 31 Jan 21 13:47
I said in the long run. Look up horses with 11 or 111 in a database and you'll see they're not that bad value. They're often unexposed and nobody knows where they will peak. And unexposed horses have value.
By:
Gaze733
When: 31 Jan 21 13:48
It's better to lay some fav with a 234 form
By:
ashleigh
When: 31 Jan 21 13:52
unexposed, 10 year old, last 2 mile hurdle win in 2015.Crazy
By:
Gaze733
When: 31 Jan 21 14:04
14 wins from 24 runs, 10-2 when favorite, surely they are worse horses to lay.
By:
PHS
When: 04 Feb 21 19:40
ttt
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Feb 21 09:35
Good morning guys from an almost spring like day in southern Germany (expected to be 12c later). Having said temperatures will drop significantly on Monday and snow is forecast most days next week.

Thankfully the weather hasn't played havoc with race meetings (at time of typing) and after the sub-standard of recent days there are some good cards on both sides of the Irish sea, in particular at Punchestown where there are 4 grade 1's, with a grade 2 and a couple of decent class B handicaps for good measure.

It's not easy to say which is the most interesting race there are many to choose from. I guess i would select the champion hurdle (Punchestown 3.15) but this could be partly based on me wanting to see how Saint Roi runs.

My love affair with the horse almost bordered on divorce last month when i was all over him to win but he was very disappointing in 4th. Was that as good as he is, or was it simply a day (when like all of us) he thought to himself 'do i need to be doing this' ?

I rated him up to this point and will probably let him run without a bet, but i will be pissed if he hoses up at 7/1 after backing him at 13/8 LTO. I have a small bet for him to win the CH at decent odds that will reduce if he does win, hence the interest.

Like a lot of Irish racing festivals it will turn out to be Gordon v Willie and the latter looks the trainer to follow (at least on paper) where he could have several winners. Chacun Pour Soi looks bombproof and his novice hurdlers and chasers could add to this one.

At Sandown and Musselburgh, i feel Dolos (1.15) Santini (2.20) and Getaway Trump (12.27) respectively are all layable. 

On to my usual Saturday banker and EW selections.

Banker - Ask Me Early - 3.30 Sandown

It was a toss up between Hitman (Sandown 1.50) and this one who i felt was better of the two at the odds and class of opposition.

A young, progressive novice chaser who jumps well (a positive on this course with 7 fences in the back straight). Hasn't run right handed yet, but the course per se shouldn't be an issue, nor will the trip and going. Up in class and 7 lb higher, but i don't think his rivals are significantly better than his previous race that he won relatively easily and he is lightly raced/improving.

At odds around 2.86 i feel he's a bet to win and support my reasonable record (2/3).

EW - Gabynako - 3.30 Leopardstown

I often choose a major large field handicap for the EW, probably the reason for my poor record this year and today i've gone for the Ladbroke Hurdle, a race where a handful of lucky pins could be needed and even then you may not find the winner.

Consistent, and another lightly raced, but also progressing with 3rd places in his last couple of runs, both graded races. Up 6 lb for his run LTO (3rd behind a useful sort) that doesn't appear to be unduly harsh. Has looked a little one paced over the longer trip (20f) and maybe the step back will suit him.

He pulled hard in his penultimate run and did well to finish so close. I expect him to be up with the pace this afternoon and he may even lead.

Runs off 135 and will have to improve a little (and could) but at double figure odds appeals as an EW selection (4 or 5 TBP in this field).

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 06 Feb 21 09:55
Morning Andrew,

Today we'll find out how the form of that odd race at Wincanton won by Messire des Obeaux works out. I'm very much a fan of Hitman and I get the impression that Nicholls thinks highly of him as well. Just a slight niggle today about the trip, as his sire deals mainly in two milers, but in these situations, I believe you have to trust the trainer if he has a past record of moving horses up in trip successfully.

An afternoon out for me tomorrow at Bath racecourse - sadly not to see any racing, but to get my first shot of vaccine. At least I know how to get there!
By:
ashleigh
When: 06 Feb 21 10:03
the anorak, i too having my first jab at beverley racecourse tomorrow, very nervous about it, as have a long list of allergies.Scared
By:
TheAnorak
When: 06 Feb 21 10:25
Hope that goes OK for you Ash - and let's also hope that racing gets some positive return from the clowns in charge for provding these facilities. I'm still laughing at the story this morning that they plan to let pubs open again in April, but they won't be allowed to serve alcohol.
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Feb 21 10:29
Good morning Andrew. Good write up. The problem with horses like Saint Roi is that you don't think it is good enough to win but fear missing out if it did. Tends to screw up the whole race when that happens. We have all been there and got the T shirts.

I'm all over Dame de Compagnie today. A mare on heavy ground and the second highest rated hurdler behind the McManus other horse on whom I will be having a small saver. He was 2nd fav in the Ballymore at 5s and finished just behind the 100/1 shot Shan Blue. Apparently he finished distressed that day so there is hope.
Have a great day.
TheAnorak/Ashliegh I had my jab two weeks ago and I was fine. Just a headache and felt a bit fluey but that may have had nothing to do with the jab.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 06 Feb 21 10:46
just to say my wife had the jab 3 days ago, bad headache and a bit fluey, slight arm ache. Headache was the worst, started going after 2 days, she spent most of that in bed, she's all good now
By:
CROPSICK
When: 06 Feb 21 11:27
My 95 year old dad had the jab 4 weeks ago absolutley no side effects at all,
went down to his house yesterday and he had his underpants on over his trousers (Superman like), guess what he blamed, 'that bloody jab!'
By:
Trusty
When: 06 Feb 21 11:38
Thanks for your post Andrew; must say I am a bit worried about H Fry stable form! 0/12 last 14 days, 3 runners in Feb have all come last and AML has to cope with up in grade and weight. Too many niggles for me. Meanwhile Dominateur who is around 10/1 is down in grade, nearly back to last winning mark and goes for a trainer who has a decent record in the race although also has ? marks around stable form, will do for me to take the risk at the price. GL.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Feb 21 12:17
Afternoon Guys,

Alan

I remember you put up Messire des Obeaux against the 1/2f Protektorat when he won LTO. It's a better field this afternoon of course but he's obviously in with a shout.

Good to read you also like Hitman, his French form is not bad (last win franked by the runner-up) and he looks to be a decent novice in the making. I think he ran into a classly type in Allmankind, but he wasn't beaten far. The 5 year old 3 lb allowance helps, but as you intimated the trip is a bit of an unknown. I've had a small win bet on him. Good luck.

Laurie

I know what you mean about Saint Roi and the fear about missing out at decent odds  (i guess many of us are the same) although as mentioned i doubt i will back him this afternoon anyway.

I don't think he's out of it by any means and it was only after the final flight he was beaten LTO. He didn't produce the turn of foot i expected at least and we can always forgive one poor run. If you asked my head if SR will win this afternoon i would say probably not, but i will give him a cheer if only for my CH bet.

I think your Henderson mare at Sandown is one of several that could win the race (good hurdle form) but i do like Hitman. Good luck.

Trusty

Thanks for the post and valid comments ref the Fry stable. I did notice the recent form and hope it's not another issue aka the Tizzard 'bug' but we will have a better idea later as i thought he looked the more likely winner from a form perspective (and receiving weight from most). I may be regretting not putting up Hitman as the banker instead but we go with our gut sometimes (and he has less to beat). Good luck.

All

Good luck with the forthcoming vaccinations and those that have had them, let's hope it's the start of getting back to some sort of normality at least.

Lock down still in place here although the German health minister stated a few days ago that the restrictions could be lifted before spring. I hope so as i need a hair cut (should that be Herr Cut) if i don't get one soon i'll be looking like Jason Momoa (sadly without the same 6 pack).
By:
TheAnorak
When: 06 Feb 21 12:56
Just a thought about Ask Me Early, but I did wonder why the Dorset based Fry had sent this horse to Wales for all his runs so far. And avoided using the more local right handed tracks at Exeter, Taunton and Wincanton.
By:
Trusty
When: 06 Feb 21 14:41
At Sandown and Musselburgh, i feel Dolos (1.15) Santini (2.20) and Getaway Trump (12.27) respectively are all layable.

3 nice lays, 2 at odds on I/R Happy
By:
punchestown
When: 06 Feb 21 17:37
Predictably yet another great day again for WPM with that ammunition to go to war with but there was a few bubbles burst along the way for a few rivals which will probably save them a boat/air trip in March.- particularly in the first and last race.

I think regarding Saint Roi it's a case of Sean Connery to Harrison Ford in Indiana Jones and The Last Crusade "Let it go Indiana,let it go"[:laugh:
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Feb 21 17:44
I thought the Scilly Isles would be between the two McManus horses but erred on the side of the mare who was brought down. Damn it! Still I won a little on the winner. It was the highest rated hurdler and had the form in the book. Albeit hurdle form.
By:
Trusty
When: 07 Feb 21 06:18
I thought it was a poor ride by De Boinville, he seems to be struggling with any race position and already held several in the race and frankly in such a small field to manage to run into the recovering horse was pretty poor. I know it is split second stuff but he really isn't shinning at the moment.

As for our two selections in the 3.30, we managed to pick the 2 non-finishers in a 7 runner field! H Fry horses very badly out of form.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 09:05
Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the comments since my last post.

Saturday thoughts (10.35) Summary

If a RP race reader had to comment on my thoughts post he may have typed the following.

Looked well in the paddock. A little keen, led at a good pace to halfway and going well, bad mistakes at the last two flights, never recovered, faded on the run-in. May do better with a visor and tongue tie. WinkLaugh

A little humour on a Sunday morning but i did start well enough with 3 lay selections that all got beat with a couple odds-on IR (thanks for pointing it out Trusty). Two were outside my thread odds limit although i could have (and should have) posted Getaway Trump but easy to say after the race. I layed the others but missed the latter.

No plaudits for mentioning the WPM runners we all thought he would have a good day, but the riches he has in his stable (human and equine) are simply staggering. By his own admission he's stated this years novices are probably the best he has ever had and when you think of past years that is some statement. I appreciate he was mob handed in some of the races but the right ones won and the Arkle novices was a benefit race for the stable (first 3 plaqces). Without question the best NH trainer around in my opinion.

My Banker selection Ask Me Nicely was disappointing after being well backed down to 5/4f. He didn't jump with any fluency at all (jumped well in his 2 previous runs) and never really seemed to be travelling. I thought he was beaten well before half-way and it wasn't a surprise to see him PU. Alan and myself commented about him not running on right handed tracks before, and Trusty pointed out poor recent form of the Harry Fry stable so perhaps his runners should be avoided for the time being.

My EW selection Gabynako (in probably the most difficult race on the card) made a bad mistake at the 2nd flight and from then on was never really in the race. He eventually finished 11th of the 22 and was clear of those behind but we can strike a line through the form.

The Leopardstown card was superb and we get to eat another piece of the cake today. Many of the runners will obviously be seen at Cheltenham in March (pandemic restrictions permitting) and it's possible we saw more than one festival winner yesterday. If i had to take just one for the notebook it would be Chacun Pour Soi in the Champion chase, it's his race to lose. I thought he was awesome yesterday even allowing for the fact Min was PU.

Epitante and Shiskin will not have things their own way at Cheltenham after watching Honeysuckle and the poorly named Energumenre (maniac in French) both win impressively. The latter race fell apart but he looks a top class chaser in the making although i would still favour Siskin at the moment.

I was surprised at the SP of Energumenre, i really expected around the 4/7 mark.

As for Saint Roi, most (including myself) would agree with Punchestown that he's not the horse he showed potential to be last year and it could be pointless running him in the CH (anyone want to buy a 20 pound ante-post voucher cheap Wink). He looked destined for better things when he won at Cheltenham and Tipperary (admittedly didn't have much to beat in Ireland) but he was very poor yesterday. Willie is on record saying he was disappointed he didn't win at the Christmas festival (not as much as me) but it's horse racing and sometimes it makes fools of us.

Speaking of Leopardstown i was there about 20 years ago for the Irish Champion stakes primarily to back a HRAC runner, Royal Anthem. I travelled over from Sweden (via Schiphol and Heathrow) early morning and on arrival at Dublin airport i asked a taxi driver to take me to the local Post House Hotel (probably something else now) wait about 10 mins whilst i checked in, dropped a bag off, change into a suit and then take me to Leopardstown.

When i came out of the hotel there was a paper map spread over the bonnet of the car and the driver was giving directions and 'war and peace' tourist advice (also mentioning what sounded like his entire family tree) to a young couple, continuing long after i was ready ..... and the meter was still running. It got to a point when i had to tell him i was in a hurry (i was).

Only in Ireland but it was funny and irrespective of the increased taxi fare i did forgive him as he told me where to go drinking in Temple Bar area that evening. This was beneficial as Frankie and Daylami won the big one so i needed a drink or 3 but a good weekend nevertheless.

No Sunday thoughts today although i'm looking for a thread lay selection to post later. If i had to post a back and lay (respectively) i will be surprised if Monkfish gets beat and Melon wins although odds are a little restrictive in both cases.

Laurie

WD with the winner (nice price). I had a small bet on Hitman who was a little keen early, but i thought he looked to be going well when he fell, albeit far too early to say if he would have won though.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 09:11
# Shishkin (2 places)

I will offer 1000/1 on Siskin winning the Arkle Laugh

Customary typing errors Wink
By:
TheAnorak
When: 07 Feb 21 10:31
If you wanted to show somebody exactly how to spot a chaser unhappy jumping this way round, just watch the race yesterday and concentrate on Ask Me Early at the Pond Fence.

The jockey has him well positioned, asks him up, but the horse says 'Sorry mate, wrong leg' and puts in an extra short stride, while shifting slightly left. As a result, he breasts the fence and lands with no forward momentum. The next fence is more or less a repeat and there's no way back from that point.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 11:09
Morning Alan,

A valid point.

He looked OK at the first couple but wasn't clever at the 3rd and jumped slow and high at a few afterwards. Around the bend before the pond fence i can imagine his IR odds were lengthening and after it my fate was sealed really.

We both pointed out his previous runs were all on left handed tracks but i was prepared to take the chance. On this showing his next entry will be interesting, although form of the stable also has to enter the equation.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 12:11
Hi Guys,

I'm looking at the UK/Irish meetings for a lay selection although half of the races are not applicable so it limits the choice (max 5/2 and i don't put up odds-on although some have finished as such).

My short list is

Quilixios - 1.40 Leopardstown
Daafr - 3.05 Southwell
Glory Of Paris - 3.35 Southwell

If there is a lay post i expect it to be one of the above.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 07 Feb 21 12:14
Afternoon Andrew
Snowing heavily outside and the perfect excuse apart from lockdown to stay in and watch the good racing from Ireland and Scotland today.
Yesterday was one of them days when all the good things at short prices went in at Leopardstown, will it happen today ? probably not.
Appreciate it is very short now at 1.57 was 4/5 earlier in the week but not sure I would lay it. Will be up with the pace and out of any trouble.
   
Minello Indo will be one I will be laying to find out, 2.78 seems very short to me. Some good opposition

Thanks for the write up as usual interesting to read your views. Never been racing in Ireland but definitely will be at some point in the future for NH rather than the flat though

Good luck today
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 07 Feb 21 12:28
"Quilixios - 1.40 Leopardstown"

Know you're not big on stats but not a great race for favourites.
Only 2 from last 10 which includes 4 at odds.
By:
flash bookie
When: 07 Feb 21 12:58
afternoon andrew from a truly baltic newmarket this afternoon .as you know honeysuckle my fav NH horse gagged up yesterday and am reasonably happy with my 16/1 antepost poss the most gutsy honest horse since denman with the mares allowance will be tough to beat at chelt imo i see monkfish poss your NH runs today are you a backer at 8/11 ??? best ed
By:
flash bookie
When: 07 Feb 21 13:00
should have read poss your fav NH horse
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 13:18
Lay Post

Leopardstown 1.40 - Quilixios

A 4 year old Maxios gelding trained by Gordon Elliott in County Meath.

Dam was a lightly raced flat maiden in Germany but a couple of the 4 offspring have won. 

Unbeaten in 3 hurdle races, the first in France (March 2020). The subsequent form of runners since is mixed, but a good introductory run.

Won a couple of small 16f and 16.5f hurdle races at Punchestown and Down Royal respectively albeit fully entitled to at odds of 1/2f and 1/16f the latter in a small field of 4 where only 3 finished. No runners from this race since although opposition in both runs can be questioned. A couple have won since albeit at the same sort of level.

Meeting much better opposition this afternoon including his main rival Youmdor who has the better form in my opinion, although i don't see it as a match by any means, only the outsider looks to be out of his depth.

Probably not as good as his stablemate Zanahyir (who i suggested should be layed for the Triumpgh at 5/2 weeks ago) and Saint Sam wasn't far behind that one LTO.

Hasn't run since 31st October (over 3 months ago).

Gordons runners are not exactly on fire at the moment.

The risk is there for all to see, an ubeaten horse with high profile connections but at 5/4 (limited liability) i feel he's underpriced for what he's actually achieved.

Lay @ 2.36

Good luck all.

07-Feb-21
12:45:37    13:40 Leopardstown
Quilixios - 2m Grd1 Juv Hrd
Betfair Bet ID 1:223795701608 | Matched: 07-Feb-21 12:45:37    Lay    2.36    50.00    --    68.00
50.00
Matched
By:
snowynoon
When: 07 Feb 21 13:26
Cheers Andrew ,will follow you in ,but i warn you im famous for doing your bad lays and missing your good ones ,hope i dont put the mockers on it .
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 13:27
Lucky and Ed,

Thanks for the posts. i'll respond later (lunch) but with respect to Monksfield (i like him, but not my favourite NH horse) i have backed him this afternoon.

The drop in trip is a slight concern, but he's a very classy novice. Not the most fluent jumper but never really looked like falling. He's no gimme and 1.72 is short enough, but he's probably the only one i will back at the meeting (apart from lays).

Good luck to both.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 13:27
Make that Monkfish Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 07 Feb 21 13:29
Snowymoon

You're not a jinx and i don't believe in them anyway, but it is a risky lay selection.
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