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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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Replies: 2,165
By:
happysandwich
When: 20 Dec 21 08:41
Happy Birthday ANDREW

We’ll all be clicking our fingers, tapping our feet and singing along when you open it up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inS9gAgSENE
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Dec 21 12:10
Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the Birthday greetings Happysandwich, 39 yet again Wink. No major celebrating, dinner in München city this evening but nothing wild and there are covid restrictions including a curfew on bars and restaurants between 22.00 and 05.00 anyway.

I only mentioned one selection yesterday, a back of Nells Well (Thurles 2.40) and anyone that also backed it was probably as infuriated as me. Strange tactics, led for several flights then slipped back through the field and at one time was around 6L off the pace in 4th (of 5). Moved up stylishly between the 3rd and 2nd last flights and looked all over the winner when taking the lead and going 1.5L up on the run-in (1.03 IR) but the evens favourite rallied and went ahead close home. She had jumped really well, but the favourite was the opposite and made several errors, in fact i suspect the jockey was superglued to the saddle. Joking aside, it was a good ride by him to get up and win, but i couldn’t believe it. That’s racing.

A busy morning and haven’t really had much chance to review the RP in detail, but what i have seen wasn’t overly exciting. I would be prepared to lay the Nicky Henderson newcomer Rudy Caprice in the bumper opener at Lingfield (12.30) run on the AW course. Unraced dam and first foal. This was up for a sale as a 3 year old, but appears to have an owner now. Laying a Nicky trained bumper debutant is risky, more so at it’s the only trainer/jockey combination entry, but 2.98 is short enough.

Over at Deauville it may be worth waiting for the listed race (4.20) with a back of the likely favourite Pennybaker. She has been a revelation since running on the AW, winning 3 from 3, easily as well, including one over CD and in decent times. Up in class, but improving and may even be better than her current RPR. Connections won the race last year. Simon and Ed Chrisford are responsible for the 2nd in the betting and another improving filly, but i think Pennybaker will have her measure and it may well be that Silvestre is the main danger (has been competing in better class).

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
By:
second again
When: 20 Dec 21 12:51
Well done in the bumper Andrew,he was beaten a long way out.
By:
Early Morning Riser
When: 20 Dec 21 17:20
Well done on both bets Andrew and enjoy your birthday night out.
By:
PHS
When: 20 Dec 21 18:45
Happy Birthday AndrewExcited
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 20 Dec 21 19:06
Terrific stuff Andrew !!
Even finds time to tip up a couple of winners on his birthday Happy
Hope you have an enjoyable evening
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 20 Dec 21 21:48


   All the Best Andrew. Happy
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 21 Dec 21 11:21
Wd Andrew and belated birthday greetings!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Dec 21 13:08
Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for my birthday greetings, very much appreciated (Glasgow Laugh).

2 selections yesterday, both profitable. The first a lay of the Nicky Henderson bumper favourite Rudy Caprice in the opener at Lingfield (drifted from 2/1 to 5/2 on course) who finished a well beaten 7th of 9. I tried to find out how much he cost (up for sale in 2020) but no luck. Based on yesterdays’ run, probably not very much although it’s early days of course.

The other bet was a win on a Godolphin runner at Deauville, Pennybaker, well backed (5/4 in the morning to 9/10 SP) won nicely and in another good time. Looks to be still improving and who knows, maybe she could even run at the Lingfield AW championships next Easter.

On to this afternoon and 3 average cards albeit only to be expected at this time of the season (roll on Sunday). I didn’t fancy anything strongly but of the others i thought the Harry Fry trained On My Command was worth a small stake (Plumpton 1.25). Won LTO over the trip on debut for the stable and she’s obviously suited to sharp tracks, in particular at Plumpton (record 1-2). First run in a handicap and a mark of 114 is fair (receiving 5 lb from the top weight). Will probably lead and the course will suit these tactics. Odds of 2.80 are about right in my opinion.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
By:
happysandwich
When: 21 Dec 21 14:10
Well done Andrew,

You haven’t lost a bet since you were 39 Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Dec 21 15:54
Thanks Happysandwich, on a roll at 3/3, i should celebrate more often. Wink

Well backed (i had 2.78) and won easily (14L).
By:
TheAnorak
When: 23 Dec 21 11:18
Morning All,

Rudy Caprice cost 28,000 euros at the Land Rover sale in Ireland as a 3-y-old - i.e. about 18 months ago.

And on a different topic, the question 'what does it cost to own a racehorse' crops up every so often. Well here's the answer for my horse, Love Dreams, in 2021.


Basic training costs (daily fee, farrier, physiotherapy and vets)  -  £16,000

Daily fee is £36. Farrier is £90 every four weeks. Vets bills were approx £1,500.

Entry fees and riding fees  -  £2,850

Each entry attracts a surcharge of £2.45p on the sum shown in the race conditions, plus an admin charge by Weatherbys of £32.92. The flat race riding fees are £127.90 for a senior jockey, £106.80 for an apprentice. A half fee is charged for any non runner taken out after the jockey has been booked. For each riding fee, there is also a charge of £16.63 towards the Professional Riders Insurance Scheme.

Transport and staff costs for twelve runs  -  £4,100

Transport is £1.40 per mile. Staff costs are £12 per hour for the time away from the yard. Those costs can be halved if two horses run at a meeting.

So in round numbers, an outlay of £23,000 for a year in which Love Dreams raced twelve times.

Those runs produced one win, four seconds, three thirds and one fourth. Two sixth places also produced a small return and the only time he failed to pick up any money was when seventh in a big field at Newbury in October.

His total prize money amounted to £15,750, of which my share as owner came to £13,100. But the commission on the auction cost of buying him back after winning the seller at Wolverhampton, meant that £950 of that prize money was returned to the racecourse.

So after a year that might be regarded as fairly successful by the standards of the average horse running at his level, my net cost was about eleven grand.

No complaints, I’ve had great fun planning, watching and analysing. I never expect to make a profit and my expectations have never been misplaced in my time as an owner!
By:
ashleigh
When: 23 Dec 21 11:48
an interesting peace on the costs of keeping your horse in training theanorak, does every owner who has a runner have to pay the £ 16.63 towards the professional riders insurance scheme? and if so is do you think that is likely to change inview of the Freddie Tylicki outcome.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 23 Dec 21 11:58
Ash,

Yes, every owner that uses a jockey has to pay the insurance charge, which is set at 13% of the riding fee - so it's more than £16.63 for a NH jockey, as the riding fee is higher.

There's a new charge being applied from Jan 1st which would cover a Tylicki type situation - see here for details:

https://www.roa.co.uk/resources/news-and-views/career-ending-insurance.html
By:
ashleigh
When: 23 Dec 21 12:04
thanks.
By:
happysandwich
When: 23 Dec 21 13:19
So right Alan, let’s get this straight.

If I can get 10 OAP’s who are surviving, like myself, on the State pension to chip in a grand each we can avail ourselves of a four legged friend and beat a path to your door ?Laugh
By:
Brian
When: 23 Dec 21 15:15
More like 2k (or 20 OAPs) and hope for one at least as successful as Love Dreams (far from guaranteed)
By:
happysandwich
When: 23 Dec 21 15:37
Brian,

Get your Grannie to knit you a green jumper with a yellow stripe down the front and on the elbows and stop causing trouble.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 23 Dec 21 16:16
Happy,

It's an orange stripe!

And your £10k (or £20k), might cover the costs for a year, but first you have to buy your horse. In the case of Love Dreams, that was via a claim and he cost me £12,600.
By:
happysandwich
When: 23 Dec 21 17:08
^
Laugh
By:
TheAnorak
When: 24 Dec 21 10:48
A Happy Xmas and a prosperous New Year to one and all. How pleasant to be looking ahead to 2022 with Glentoby removed from the forum, hopefully for good this time.
By:
happysandwich
When: 24 Dec 21 11:42
I second that Alan and would also like to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and a Happy healthy 2022.
By:
second again
When: 24 Dec 21 11:53
A happy christmas and a prosperous new year to all on here,my favourite thread.Happy
By:
fred c dobs
When: 24 Dec 21 13:53
I second that,second again,sorry about that,just couldn’t resist,seriously AIS is the only person i follow on this forum and long may his lay selections continue
I wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous new year.Fred
By:
Eborman
When: 24 Dec 21 14:11
Same here second again!

Been an avid reader from the beginning with an occasional post - I'm quite shy really.

A goodly number of intelligent, amusing and very knowledgeable people make this my go to thread first thing on a morning and then throughout the day
By:
Eborman
When: 24 Dec 21 14:12
and fred c dobs
By:
Early Morning Riser
When: 24 Dec 21 14:25
Have a happy Christmas everyone and may 2022 be a healthy and prosperous new year for you all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 25 Dec 21 13:51
Good afternoon and Christmas greetings Guys,

A time of the year that many readers are eagerly awaiting has almost arrived and i'm not referring to Turkey, Mince pies and copious amounts of Red Wine that pale into comparison up against the NH Boxing day fixture at Kempton. I've never been to this meeting and covid restrictions are certainly responsible for a non-attendance this year; i would have given anyones right arm to be there tomorrow and Monday. Never mind, ITV and Betfair will provide several hours of entertainment and although it's presented electronically, i have to be thankful i can watch it in any form, there are many families who have lost loved ones this year.

Paul Nicholls and the Kempton meeting go together like Christmas pudding and Sixpenny bits (younger readers may need to Google this) and i think he will be winning a couple of the Grade 1s tomorrow. Betting on novice chases is a brave mans game, but this one is a topical tip in the Kauto Star and Clan Des Obeaux was made for the King George VI. Having said this if Greanateen beats Shishkin at the course on Monday i will eat my oldest pair of socks. More on these races when the time arises.

It's not all racing either, Boxing day is synonymous with sport and tomorrow is no exception with World championship darts, the Ashes and football to name a few. The English premiership program looks interesting, but i suspect most eyes will be on Luton v Bristol City and rightly so.

Back to NH, my last back selection Harry Frys On My Command was well backed (6/5f) and won very easily (eased up) at Plumpton on Tuesday. The JJ O'Neill trained faller 3 out played a small part in the favourites success, but wouldn't have won if she had stayed on her feet. A feature of the win was her jumping that apart from the last flight was almost foot perfect and at a few of them she didn't touch a twig. The handicapper may not be in such a festive mood when he reasesses her on Tuesday and i suspect he will raise her 8 lb to 122 or thereabouts. Even so i think she has to be followed next time out in similar class, more so if she returns to Plumpton (1-2-1 at the track) or a similar sharp track. Next fixtures are 2nd and 19th Jnauary.

Did anyone notice that Charlies Fellows sent several runners to Doha yesterday ? Out of luck in the Group 1 Qatar Derby but took 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th (from 4 entries) in the 2 year old conditions race picking up almost £100K in the process, with £62K going to the winner. Not bad considering he had previously won a nursery at Catterick off a mark of 87 in September.

Alan

Many thanks for your Love Dreams training costs post, informative and interesting. Not a cheap hobby by any means, but at least his consistant form has reduced the overall financial burden and it could have been better with a few close finishes. Good luck in 2022.

With respect to your comments on the poster Glentoby, i agree entirely, although i'm not going to make a song and dance about it. I haven't seen the post that has presumably resulted in a ban, but a little birdie told me the actual words used and against a known C sufferer on here. A vile, despicable post and although drink and/or medication may have played a part, it was totally inexcusable.

All

Many thanks for the Birthday wishes earlier in the week, but more importantly the kind, supportive posts later relating to this thread and those previous to it. I never expected this laying theme (generally) to run for so long back in April 2018, but as i've mentioned several times before it isn't only about me and lay selections. It has evolved into a mini-platform where racing fans can basically discuss anything, as well as posting back/lay selections of their own and it is this that has made the thread popular.

Additionally i have met up with quite a few posters in the past few years (including a well-known bookie) initially at Newmarket (and since) as well as Sandown a few weeks ago, i have no doubt there will be other occasions in 2022. Thanks Guys.

Finally, i wish everyone a wonderful Christmas/festive season with loved ones (and some you would prefer not to see Wink). A racing break is actually welcoming and gives many the opportunity of spending quality time with the family and i'm no exception. No doubt my daughter will revert to her childhood and request we play snakes and ladders (or whatever) and i will be forced to watch the Snowman for the umpteenth time, but i don't get many chances in a year for this and it adds to the typical festive spirit.

OK that's it for me today, more tomorrow. Have a nice afternoon and evening all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 26 Dec 21 11:49
Good afternoon and Boxing day greetings Guys,

Racing fans are well catered as per usual on this festive day with 11 meetings and 74 races. Many of these are run of the mill, in fact typical of any Sunday afternoon but quality is certainly in force at Kempton and a couple of the Irish venues.

The King George VI is second only to the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the NH calendar (in my opinion at least) the roll call of winners is almost a history lesson of jump racing greats. Several have won the race more than once but Kauto Stars' record of 5 in 7 years is unlikely to be broken (at least in my lifetime) and he has complimented Paul Nicholls enviable record with 10 wins in the last 15 years. I think the trainer can add to this with Clan Des Obeaux who was a two time winner in 2018 and 2019, forget the run last year, he was coming off a hard race in the Betfair chase on heavy going at Haydock.

Mind you he's no gimme by any means, it's a decent field this year with a couple of younger 7 year olds that can also win. Frodon and Bryony will no doubt go off in front, but i really can't see him winning this afternoon (note to self i said the same LTO) in fact i think several will be in contention between the last couple of fences, all trying to chase CDO down.

Whatever the result in the KG i expect Paul to have already visited the winners enclosure earlier in the afternoon with Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star Novices (1.55) as i intimated in my post yesterday. Many punters will consider the race a coin toss, and up to a point would be correct, but i really like the horse and i'm looking forward to this race more so than the KG.

His jumping was a joy to watch at Haydock, as it was an Newton Abbott in his penultimate race. Harry didn't move a muscle beating the 159 rated Itchy Feet over a shorter trip LTO and 24f at Kempon will hold no fears for him. The race could be tactical as 3 of the 4 runner field like to set the pace, but i suspect Ahoy Senor and Kilteally Briggs will make it with Bravemansgame not too far away.

Ahoy Senor is clearly a useful type and jumps well enough (prone to the occasional error) and will not be a pushover at all, but i sense Harry will get Bravemansgame into a nice jumping rhythm and go in front from the final bend.

In my opinion even money is a good price for Bravemansgame, but as so often in supposed match races, i will be layer of one vying for favourtism (and at not much higher odds) due to the pace angle and it wouldn't be the biggest shock of the day if one of others won. Here is part of what i mentioned after i put him up on here LTO.

We did see another top class winner at Haydock, this time a novice, Bravemansgame who was surprisingly available at 4/5 on here in the morning. Whilst the winning distance was nowhere near the chasm A Plus Tard won by, the manner of his win was very impressive, Harry never moved on him and i could have ridden it. In my opinion he's the best novice seen so far this season and it will take a good one to beat him at Kempton next time out.

This was in November and since then i've been to Sandown and seen another very good novice in Edwardstone albeit over a shorter trip.

For a small stake EW selection Jacamar (1.20) appeals assuming odds of 13 or 14 are available. It took him a few races get his act together in 2020 and could be considered a little unlucky LTO (mistake at the final flight) when he was beaten in a photo off a mark of 128. A couple of lbs higher this afternoon and a very tricky handicap, but if he can race more prominently this time he could surprise. Note he also won at Wincanton on this day last year.

Shops are closed here and covid restrictions add a few more constraints, but i'm happy staying at home to watch ITV racing this afternoon. In the meantime good luck later and have a nice Boxing day with your loved ones.
By:
Lampus
When: 26 Dec 21 13:27
Jacmar  HappyHappy
By:
doorman99
When: 26 Dec 21 13:28
Superb, well done.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 26 Dec 21 13:30
WD Andrew - saved the day for you after the excitement of the Luton v Bristol City game was removed from the program!
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 26 Dec 21 13:35
well done Andrew, great pick
By:
Lampus
When: 26 Dec 21 14:03
HappyHappyHappy
By:
Trusty
When: 26 Dec 21 14:03
Some good stuff here as usual, shame I missed the post earlier. Merry Xmas all and well done Andrew.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 26 Dec 21 14:04
2/2, well done
By:
england_v_south_afri
When: 26 Dec 21 14:07
wd AIS Cool
By:
second again
When: 26 Dec 21 16:17
You have your prosperous new year already VWD Happy.
By:
PHS
When: 26 Dec 21 19:41
Just got back (after visiting relatives) and seen the results. That's some double Andrew. VWDHappy.
By:
PHS
When: 26 Dec 21 19:42

Dec 26, 2021 -- 7:41PM, PHS wrote:


Just got back (after visiting relatives) and seen the results. That's some double Andrew. VWD.


I did the two winners but not CDOHappy.

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