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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
tanglefoot
When: 12 Dec 21 10:22
Giamrande 3.8 (10h00)
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 12 Dec 21 10:34
Tanglefoot

My first bet is timed as matched at 09.03.54. Odds 3.50

Currently 3.55 to lay

Wink
By:
tanglefoot
When: 12 Dec 21 10:39
Andrew,my strategy is to wait to see if another horse besides Dreamsundermyfeer is backed passed Giamrande,the class in the field,but it’s not going to happen,because Giamrande is coming in for betting support.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 12 Dec 21 11:52
Tanglefoot

There's nothing wrong with your strategy if it works for you, but i generally prefer to post early so i'm not influenced by betting moves, some of which reverse later anyway.

When i looked at the race this morning i was surprised Gemirande was as short as 15/8 and 2/1 with the books. Some of the price will be based on lightly raced, possible potential and an in-form stable. Hurdles form is hit and miss and he was fortunate to win a race where there wasn't a lot of depth in the field to start with.

Tends to race from off the pace and Southwell is not a track suited to this (may race more prominently today of course) and the fences are stiff there (only ran in one French chase race). I suspect he may improve for chasing and he's only a 5 year old, but there are 3 CD winners in the field and it's a tricky handicap. I can't see the rank outsider being involved, but even the other Don't Ask is not out of it.

I wouldn't put anyone off of backing it and i don't always get it right of course, but i was  content to lay him earlier (and since).

Good luck whatever you play.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 12 Dec 21 12:19
Andrew,u misunderstand,I am not looking to lay any horse in the field,I am looking for a winner.Grin
By:
happysandwich
When: 12 Dec 21 12:57
Cheers Andrew,

Another tenner in the kitty. Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 13 Dec 21 10:23
Good morning Guys,

The suggested lay at Southwell (12.45) Gemirande drifted from 2/1 to 3/1 and finished 2nd. Wasn’t fluent in the middle part of the race making several errors (albeit without looking like falling) and raced more prominently than in recent races as expected. Tapped for toe before the 2nd last, but did stay on well on the run-in although the visual impression was exacerbated by the winner idling in front (flashed his tail a few times as well). May do better over a longer trip, but he has an entry over the same trip at Uttoxeter on Friday. Still work in progress for the Venetia Williams team, but i think he needs a little help from the handicapper.

An interesting little novices chase at Plumpton (1.00) this afternoon, only 3 runners including Nassalam who readers know i’m a fan of and put him up several times although i concede he was lucky in winning LTO. All the field like to front run or at least race with the pace, but whether the other 2 can keep tabs on For Pleasure is doubtful. He will run like Dayjur from the off and it will be a case of catch me if you can. All 3 are not the most fluent of chasers, but i think Nassalam is the best of them. He gets the 4 year old allowance although this is negated by a 10 lb class 1 penalty and as a consequence is giving away 4 lb to the other 2 (8 lb clear on ratings). I think he will win (played small) although Kit Commander has a big turnaround in the weights on their last run.

A couple of AW meetings and i layed Pianissimo earlier (Chelmsford 3.45). A winner of 3 races on the surface (each in a photo) albeit not since December 2019. Had a spell over hurdles last year without success and his 3 runs this year are hardly inspiring. Now 7 lb lower than his last winning mark, top rated and dropping in trip, but i don’t think he will be winning this afternoon.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Happysandwich

WD on the win, the stake is not important. Just add it to the Constitution Hill bet fund at Sandown on January 8th. Wink

Tanglefoot

I guessed you were looking to back something, but i got the impression it was the favourite (at the time) in Gemirande.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 13 Dec 21 12:38
Good day Andrew,I was looking to back the money horse Grin
The reason,Gemirande,the class horse in the field was weak in the market and I was expecting the money horse to win if it appeared,which it did eventually, Ahead Of The Field, the only problem I expected it to go level or passed in the betting,eventually betting before off Gemirande 3/1,AOTF 7/2
U live and learn( 7/2 is ok)
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Dec 21 11:01
Good afternoon Guys,

A dull looking day in München, but at least most of the snow has melted and temperatures have crept up above zero.

Another festive season where covid is having a major impact (not just here) with the traditional Bavarian Christmas markets closed for a 2nd year and restrictions in bars and restaurants. Vaccination app ‘passports’ are also required for shopping in the larger stores and queues outside are common so not exactly a fun time although the locals seem happy enough. I think my Christmas present shopping will consist of gift vouchers this year. Wink

On to racing, run of the mill cards today, even the Newbury meeting isn’t up to its usual standard although the listed race is interesting. Staying with the latter (2.00) when i saw the field last night i expected the Paul Nicholls mare Silver Forever to be favourite this morning, but i’m surprised she’s as short as 11/10 with the books even allowing for a progressive profile. Only one run over fences and that was in a match (receiving 7 lb) on this course (after a lengthy break to be fair). There’s a few decent, experienced mares in the field and she’s no gimme by any means. I layed at 2.18 earlier and thought Casablanca Mix was a viable EW at almost double figure odds although i didn’t play the latter.

Over at Leicester, one horse that may be worth a look is Jetoile (2.15) from a stable very much in form (3 wins from the last 7 runners). It was only a maiden hurdle he won LTO at Chepstow but did it very easily and is improving. Racing in novice class this afternoon but it doesn’t look to be a particularly strong field at all. Has to concede 7 lb (winners penalty) but i feel he’s more than capable. Odds of 2.26 are about right although he's probably hindered by being my nap selection in the daily comp. Wink

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.

Alan

Good luck with Love dreams at Kempton this evening, he looks to have a winnable chance.
By:
Lampus
When: 15 Dec 21 11:10
Thank you ANDREW Happy

G/L
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Dec 21 13:07
The Exchange has crashed and no one has been able to place any bets today.

I’m sure the reason for this is they found out I’ve started a new silly system with Boris’s fuel allowance because the first Lay bet today was Leicester 12:30 Obey The Rules 2nd 6/4.

They knew !!Laugh

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31738431/boriss-bottle
By:
happysandwich
When: 15 Dec 21 14:29
Thanks Andrew,

I left the Silver Forever race but backed Jetoile, hope you broke even.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Dec 21 14:36
Happysandwich

WD

Silver Forever was always a risky lay, but he was short enough at 5/6f. I had already layed when the crash occured, but the latter did me a favour as i got on Jetoile later at 2.50, better than i expected (2.48 BSP). A small profit so far.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 17 Dec 21 11:04
A suggested lay for this afternoon - Jonbon in the Ascot 2:20. He may well be the machine that the hype suggests, but it's still a big step up from a NH maiden hurdle to a Grade 2. That win at Newbury was pretty much gifted to him by reluctant opponents and I'd argue that any of his four rivals here would have won that race just as easily. Not a surprise if he wins, but the price is just too short at present and I've laid him at 2.1.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Dec 21 12:22
Good afternoon Alan,

Thanks for your post. I totally agree (without wanting to take any credit) and i also layed earlier.

I actually like the Skelton horse if i had to pick a winner. Mind you, i'm up to my armpits in work so doubt i will get to see the race.

Good luck.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 17 Dec 21 13:43
JonBon was a major drifter from his overnight price when he won so the vibes went good beforehand
Not sure what to make of that in hindsight considering how easy he won
Will find out today hopefully with the right result
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 17 Dec 21 13:44
*Were not
By:
TheAnorak
When: 17 Dec 21 14:38
I wonder if Nicholls and Skelton both told their jockeys to give Jonbon a three length head start and wait for a 3F sprint? Just like his Newbury win - maybe he is a machine, but it's easy to look good when your rivals are so negative.
By:
Early Morning Riser
When: 17 Dec 21 14:44
Looks like Jonbon is still learning the game.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Dec 21 15:20
Jonbon did the business as backers expected (i layed) and there’s no doubt he won very easily. The early pace was farcial although this probably wasn’t a major shock and whilst he jumped well enough (a couple of good ones) i wouldn’t exactly call him slick over the flights.

Is he the best novice seen so far and is he a bet at 2/1 for the Supreme ? This remains to be seen, but for me, possibly and no. Is he even the best in Nickys’ yard, we will have a better idea after the Tolworth next month, but i am more impressed with Constitution Hill than Jonbon to be honest.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 18 Dec 21 07:56
Good morning Guys,

The last weekend before Christmas and this time next week NH racing fans will be looking forward to the festive meetings at Kempton and Leopardstown. That's not to say todays cards are not interesting enough, but quality is a little sporadic with the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle at Ascot taking pride of place although even this field has lost what would have been a strong favourite in the Cesarewitch winner (and useful hurdler) Buzz due to injury.

Many familar names in the field, but several of them with question marks, Thyme Hill, Champ and Paisley Park in particular. When Lisnagar Oscar won the Cheltenham stayers a couple of years ago (and may have won the race this year but for falling) i thought he would be carrying the banner in this division for a few years, but he hasn't won in 7 races since and is an outsider this afternoon. I wouldn't rule him out as it's quite an open race in my opinion, but it may well be that Chelteham is his ideal track (runs well there).

I was at Sandown a couple of weeks ago when Samarive won the finale and he looked very well handicapped that day, but it hasn't gone unnoticed and he's been raised 11 lb since although he was impressive it has to be said. Improving fast and maybe he's better than a 141 rating, but there is an outsider in the field that may run well at a decent EW price in Llandinabo Lad (currently 18 on here). Lightly race, consistent, form figures of 2-2 at the track and one of these runs was giving weight to My Drogo on this very card last year (Soaring Glory in 3rd). He will be fitter this afternoon after a decent run LTO (2nd) following a break and wind operation.

Over at Navan the card looks to be favouring favourites and i think several could win, in particular the first and last races with Deploy The Gateway and American Mike. The latters odds are obviously restricted, but i can't see him losing to be honest. I think we will be hearing more about this one in future.

Another bet on the same card (1.45) that i have already backed is All Class. I remember her run at Punchestown LTO, she couldn't have won any easier. That was a 25.5f handicap chase and although reverting to hurdles this afternoon (same class) could be on a good mark (95) that Ronan is exploiting. Won on course (flat) and the drop in trip to 20f is not really an issue. Improved in a couple of races since being transferred and her trainers recent form can't be faulted. I noticed Ronan doesn't have any more entries until Boxing day so maybe he's hoping his sole runner this afternoon pays the Christmas expenses. Irrespective of this i feel he's a bet at 6/4.

Several potential lay selections running later, but one to mention here is Remastered in the Tommy Whittle (Haydock 2.40). He's actually a likeable, genuine type and may have finished in the placings LTO in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury but for falling 4 out. Half the field of 21 failed to finish and it looked a bit of a slog on the rain softened ground. His recent runs were in decent handicaps receiving weight and although running off the same mark this afternoon is conceding over a stone to many and Haydock can get heavy at this time of the year. He's short enough at 5/2 (3.65) and i am a layer.

Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
By:
Lampus
When: 18 Dec 21 09:24
Thank you ANDREW  Happy

G/L
By:
Trusty
When: 18 Dec 21 10:58
GL Andrew; thought Adrimel was well worth a bet at 4/1. Uninspiring form figures of PPP last 3 outings but he is actually unbeaten on ground SOFTER or worse, he is also a course winner on heavy. Tom Lacey and Stan Sheppard have teamed up for 3 winners and 3 seconds from 8 runners last week. Down in class slightly and with blinkers applied, I think we will see a much improved run today and hopefully a win. Haydock 12.20.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 18 Dec 21 11:44
Afternoon Trusty,

I looked at the race early this morning and thought it was very open with the 3 main protagonists all having a liking for soft/heavy and not much between them on ratings. I put up the likely favourite Dreams of Home LTO and he jumped/ran well. He would be my choice, but i doubt i will play in the race although it's an interesting little novices chase to watch. Good luck with your selection.
By:
fronter
When: 18 Dec 21 12:25
Great call Trusty - Good luck with your selections AIS.
By:
PHS
When: 18 Dec 21 12:29
WD TrustyWink
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 18 Dec 21 12:33
Trusty

WD, a nice selection (and price). I didn't even see the race in the end.

Fronter

Thank you.
By:
Trusty
When: 18 Dec 21 13:44
Always travelling well and surprised it went off at 5.4 on BF but only returned 7/2. Wish they all went like that!
By:
fronter
When: 18 Dec 21 14:15
Nice one AIS did it nicely Grin
By:
PHS
When: 18 Dec 21 14:17
WD with the banker Andrew. I somehow managed to get 2.73 Ave (just lucky).
By:
england_v_south_afri
When: 18 Dec 21 14:48
n1 AIS on the lay Cool
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 18 Dec 21 15:02
Top tipping Andrew
Well done
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 19 Dec 21 09:05
Good sunny Bavarian morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts and WD again with your winning selection Trusty.

3 bets suggested yesterday, 2 made a profit although the last (outsider EW) let me down.

All Class was well backed at 10/11f (although there were 5 non-runners of minimal significance) and duly won, easier than it may have appeared, at least to my eyes.

WD with the 2.73 PHS, i was on at several rates in the morning albeit 2.60 the higher of them. No RF factor at 2.60 either so maybe i was matched after the withdrawls.

Didn't race with the leaders on this occasion, but was always prominent around 6th/7th until getting much closer at the 3rd last, travelling well. I thought she had the race won after the next flight although Davy Russell (late jockey replacement) had to shake the reins a little before pulling away. It will be interesting how much the handicapper raises her on Tuesday, but i suspect Ronan knows there is more left in the tank. I was particulary sweet on this one, even mentioning it to a few forum posters the night before.

The 9/4f Remastered (a lay) looked to be travelling best 3 out in the Tommy Whittle (must have been short IR) but as mentioned he was conceding a lot of weight to much of the field and 18 lb on a rain softened track (heavy in places) to an eased down winner was just too much. The race took its toll with only 8 finishing and sadly Buzz De Turcoing fell and was fatally injured.

Speaking of injury, Daryl Jacob was taken to hospital after falling at the first fence on Caribean Boy (Ascot) but i haven't seen any media reports on his condition this morning. Let's hope he's released today and back riding soon.

My EW outsider Llandinabo Lad (18/1) finished 6th, although he didn't run a poor race by any means and actually led approaching the 3rd last, but faded and was beaten at the next. It was a decent pace and although he was prominent most of the way, simply not good enough on the day, but it was a good class handicap to be fair.

One of NH racing enigmas, Champ won the Stayers and may not be going back chasing after winning although it would have been interesting if Buzz had been in the field. I wasn't overly surprised that connections are unsure of future plans, but i would certainly favour flights over fences if he was mine.

Nicky gets a lot of stick on here, specially where entries and subsequent withdrawls are concerned but he knows the time of day on a NH racing clock and i actually like the stable (i may change my mind if Constitution Hill doesn't win next time out Laugh).

I mentioned a bumper runner at Navan American Mike in my post (although not as a tip of course) but unfortunately his main rival (and stablemate) was withdrawn hence the restricted SP. Nevertheless he was impressive, visually and on the clock. It's going to take a very good one to beat him at Cheltenham and 3/1 with the books could look good in March. If i had to select an ante-post bet at over 5/2 for the festival today, this would be the one.

A run of the mill Sunday as far as racing is concerned, 3 meetings and oddly enough 6 of the 7 races at Fakenham are all class 4. Relatively small fields and quite a few shorties here including Nicky Hendersons Lelantos that i think is his lowest rated NH horse (100) in the stable. I certainly wouldn't be lumping on this one at 2.36.

There wasn't anything that really jumped off the page anywhere this afternoon, certainly at odds against, but there is one over the Irish Sea i like Nells Well (Thurles 2.40) currently 3.35 on here. The penny appears to have dropped in her previous 4 runs with form figures of 1-2-2-1 and an increase in her rating from 99 to 118. The step up in trip to 24f looked a very positive move LTO (same trip today) winning easily, she has course experience and may have won her penulitmate race with just a little better luck in running. I think she's worth a small stake at the odds and have already been partly matched.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 19 Dec 21 09:06
Trusty
By:
happysandwich
When: 19 Dec 21 12:43
Andrew,

I think they've all gone to church.Laugh
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Dec 21 15:39
Well done Anorak, good to see the Mo Celita Thirsk form come good eventually Wink
By:
PHS
When: 19 Dec 21 15:45
3 bets suggested yesterday, 2 made a profit although the last (outsider EW) let me down.

I'd hardly call an 18/1 shot "let me down" (I guess you're only referring to keeping a 100% record though)

on a rain softened track (heavy in places)
Times suggest it was nowhere near (Soft).
By:
Trusty
When: 19 Dec 21 16:00
Amen
By:
happysandwich
When: 19 Dec 21 16:04
^
Laugh
By:
happysandwich
When: 19 Dec 21 21:06
Lucky Luciano,

Have a look at Boris's Bottle.
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