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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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When: 05 Dec 21 10:44
Good morning Guys,

Thank you for the posts.

A nice afternoon at Sandown yesterday with a couple of Betfair players (one a newbie to the site) and their wives. Unfortunately another 2 had to cancel although this was known in advance but there will be other times of course.

A decent enough card and the Tingle Creek chase ensured a sell-out crowd but the latter was responsible for long queues in the premier class bar (this actually did me a favour) and i heard several angry complaints. To be fair, the bar crew appeared to be understaffed and there was no real organisation.

It was sunny early afternoon and quite pleasant, but did get a bit chilly later, so much so i had to wear a freebie Betfair scarf on top of the less conspicuous one i was already wearing.

As Shishkin was not running (i bought my ticket in October) i was only fun betting, but it made for a nice afternoon chatting with the party and without the stress of lumping on an odds-on chance (although i really feel he would have won comfortably given an on day).

It looks as though Nicky Henderson may have found another decent one for the Supreme in the well backed Constitution Hill who looked the winner at the 2nd last and was quite impressive. What he beat is open to question, but he certainly looked good to my eye. Mind you there's 3 months left so a little early to be speaking of Cheltenham. I was at Sandown when Altior won the TC in 2018 and Nicky won the opener on that day with a well backed NH debutant (never won again).

My first Sandown bet was not until the 4th race (Henry VIII) on Third Time Lucki who was going well down the back straight (short IR ?) but at the final bend it was clear the eventual winner Ewardstone was travelling much the better and couldn't have won any easier.

The betting Gods were certainly looking down on me for the TC, i was in a queue with one of our group getting a round of drinks and i wasn't going to leave it after waiting so long. As a consequence i didn't have a bet in race and only saw glimpses of it on the screen. I would have lost, albeit only 50 max, probably a 2TBP on Nube Negra who was poor, but not as much as the 8/13 favourite, i never thought he would be that short. Did WPM send the wrong one over ? (3 entered initally, 2 running this afternoon).

I was discussing this race with Brian (Ed Thompsons buddy) when i arrived at the course and we both agreed it was nowhere near a good thing, although i did think it would probably win. Ed, if you're looking it, nice to see you again and have a chat. I copped the 'refreshment' from the Betfair tent. Wink

I only had 3 bets on course (all on tote) and one of those was at Chepstow in the opener (paid 2.20). My only other bet was a tenner EW on the last winner (8/1 and same on the tote) so it turned out to be a profitable afternoon.

A nice, fun afternoon and thanks to those that were in the party. Same again early next year hopefully with the other 3 (maybe 4) also in attendance (5 if my lucky charm daughter comes).

My last day in UK, i'm on a flight back to München late afternoon but i will go into Crawley for lunch, pick up a few English Christmas foods and watch a few Irish races in a shop.

Maybe more later if i stop for a coffee ('m acutally posting legally here, no VPN required).

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.


A good spot and post ref the jockey on Chacun, WD.


You made post number 2000 on this thread yesterday. Happy
When: 05 Dec 21 11:19
Think that should be reply number 2000
When: 06 Dec 21 11:11
Good afternoon Guys,

A suggested lay this afternoon is Gun Merchant (Musselburgh 1.45). Inconsistent. Regressed in the ratings since leaving Gordon Elliott last year but did win LTO after a wind operation that appears to have worked. Having said that it wasn't a good field (better today) there were only 4 runners, he didn't win by far after front running and mistakes by the rest certainly helped his cause.

The win was on good and it's G/S this afternoon, he's up 3 lb and down in trip slightly. Musselburgh is also different in configuration and direction than Newcastle (LTO) and he has run over this course before without troubling the judge.

Current odds of 2/1-9/4 are short enough (i layed earlier).

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
When: 06 Dec 21 11:52
^still morning hereSilly
When: 06 Dec 21 12:03

Sorry, i arrived back last night and it was afternoon when i typed it Wink
When: 06 Dec 21 13:51
W/D   ANDREW  HappyHappy
When: 06 Dec 21 13:57
Nice one Andrew

Stone last - that’s how we like them.
When: 06 Dec 21 15:32
WD Andrew. Your post sent it drifting out though and it was nowhere near 9/4 when I posted above.
When: 06 Dec 21 15:36

Following the race, the Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination, during routine testing of GUN MERCHANT, which started favourite and finished sixth of six finishers, revealed the gelding to be lame on its left fore.
When: 06 Dec 21 16:24
Thanks for the comments Guys.

Always prominent, but weakened quickly after the 3rd last finishing a long way back of those that finished (5 didn't). Maybe the PHS post explains it, but the winner looks well handicapped, jumped nicely and can go in again. I suspect the soft going will be put foward as a reason for improvement.


2/1 and 9/4 with the books and 3.65 on BF when i posted at 11.11 (i layed at 3.50 before typing). A pity about the odds drift, it takes the gloss off, but out of my control of course. Hopefully the horse is OK (thanks for the Veterinary post).
Lucky Luciano
When: 06 Dec 21 20:11
Evening Andrew,

You might remember I mentioned a horse called Blairgowrie, heavily backed last time running on over 2m at Sandown and has been favourite on all three runs.

I was looking at different syndicates a few months back and this one was available for £6,500 per share with 25 shares. Cost covering all expenses for first year with additional sum for subsequent years.
I thought I would follow the horse to see how anyone taking a share would get on.

Anybody taking an interest must have been a bit disappointed with the last time run but being out of Goldcupwinner**** may want further than the 2m he has run over so far.

Blairgowrie is back out tom 12.00 Uttoxeter over a more suitable trip 2.4M presently 11/4 with the books, if  as good as they might think, backed off the books last time and favourite for all three runs must run a big race. Entered 3 times this week 12.50 Warwick Thurs and 13.03 Doncaster Friday over 3m
if you get a chance to have a look any opinion appreciated.
When: 07 Dec 21 08:56
Coincidentally, an unraced 3-y-old full sister to Blairgowrie is being sold at Goffs this morning and will probably go through the ring about an hour before the Uttoxeter race.

The only winner produced by the mare seemed to prefer good ground, so conditions today may not be ideal for Blairgowrie.
When: 07 Dec 21 08:57
Good morning Guys,


I certainly do remember us discussing the horse on Saturday although i had forgotten it was running this afternoon (Red wine and age maybe played a part Wink). I guess you've already done a little research anyway so some of the facts below will be known to you; nevertheless my thoughts follow these.

Ted Walsh purchased it as a foal for €19,000 at Tattersals (Ireland) in November 2016 and it was subsequently sold at the same venue for €150,000 in June 2019.

Sent to Nicky for training under the ownership of Thomas Barr (who now has a horse with Paul Nicholls, Highland Hunter).

Ran in a couple of egg and spoon bumpers at Warwick, both over 16f. Form of his debut run (finished 3rd) is working out well, the winner was Might I (won since) and we saw him in the opener at Sandown on Saturday behind a decent type in the Nicky trained Constitution Hill. The runner-up at Warwick has also won since, as has the 3rd, so overall form appears to be reliable (in the context of this race).

His next run was in a similar class race (again finishing 3rd) but nothing has come out of it at all.

Given a break and sold to Highclere (couldn't find any price details). As you mentioned it's now a syndicate horse (25 x £6500) and all lots are sold. Nicky stated he was keen for the horse to remain the yard although he's hardly likely to turn it down.

Made his hurdle debut in a class 4 16f maiden at Sandown last month finishing 4th beaten just under 10L. Similarly with Might I, the winner ran well last Saturday only just being denied at Aintree in a class 3 novice hurdle, although the runner-up has been well beaten since (this run could be ignored).

Stayed on strongly at Sandown and it was a reasonable debut run; improvment is almost guaranteed.

We can be sure of a couple of things, he will not be racing over 16f again and will probably improve going chasing later. Looks to be a stayer in the making and this is borne out by the 3 entries this week, upped in trip considerably (one of them 24.5f).

Uttoxeter is the chosen venue this afternoon and i don't immediately think of Nicky and Nico at this course (they have a better winning strike rate at Warwick). A sharp course shouldn't be an issue, but you need a horse that travels well here. Nicky has sent 4 to the course this afternoon.

Interesting that he was withdrawn from a race at Haydock in March 24th, the reasoning based on 'unsuitable ground' (good to soft) although i tend to ignore such comments by trainers. The going this afternoon was initially envisaged to be the same, but i noticed it's now designated as soft by the RP.

OK the bottom line, is it a back or lay. I would never sway anyone from either, it's a game of opinions anyway and as with my lay selections, i simply put up how i see it and readers form their own.

The step up in trip is almost certainly a positive.

It's not a bad field by any means and a couple have a better RPR. Only one winner in the race (restricted to one time winners) the Harry Skelton trained mare Get A Tonic but the 7lb allowance is offset by the same amount as a penalty. A few decent stables are represented.

Is it running with a handicap rating in mind.

Lets ignore fun betting to base any confidence level on. I wouldn't lay at the current 11/4, but i may have done if it was 5/4. It's been well backed in all 3 runs and could be today of course.

Would i back at 11/4, probably not, but that doesn't mean i don't think it can win, it can of course. A bit of fence sitting that really isn't useful, but it's a race i wouldn't have had too much interest in before you posted anyway.

If i had to make a choice of back or lay, i have to be honest and say the latter but i don't plan to (unless it's 5/4 of course Wink). Good luck if you back it, i hope he wins for you and i will certainly watch the race now (working remote at home today).

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
When: 07 Dec 21 09:02
Morning Alan and thanks for the post.
When: 07 Dec 21 11:03
The full sister led out unsold at 14,500 euros - i.e a 15,000 reserve not met. Of the first 24 lots offered, they've only managed to find buyers for 7 of them. The live pictures from Goffs show an arena that is almost completely deserted apart from the auction staff!
When: 07 Dec 21 19:20

I wouldn't have a clue what to look for in an unraced, young horse at the sales, but unsold at reserve of €15,000 basically tells its own story.

Mind you that could be cheap considering the other one was considered worth paying out 10 x that amount before he had even set foot on a racecourse. I couldn't find any info what Highclere paid for it (maybe a private sale)

Hopefully Lucky didn't back Blairgowrie in the end and i suspect this to be correct based on WhatsApp messages. Drifted from the early 11/4 to 7/2 in the morning and higher on course (9/2 SP). Lowest matched pre-race odds that i saw was 3.85. Ran OK, but was one paced after the last.
When: 07 Dec 21 19:31
Good evening, can I ask you knowledgeable gents a question please?

In the first race at Hexham tomorrow, Lucinda Russel runs Sutton Manor, who off 100 I fancied e/w at around 20/1, but because he is running within 7 days he has to run off his old mark of 105. Why as a trainer would you run tomorrow rather than waiting for his new mark?

I am not playing because of the unrevised mark but just curious?
When: 07 Dec 21 19:59
Evening Trusty

I honestly don't know, next question please. Laugh

Seriously, maybe it's because his 3 wins have come on heavy going (will be tomorrow) and he ran well enough in 3rd over a longer trip at the course 3 runs ago off a mark of 112.

Local owners ?

Certainly regressed over the years, he ran off 142 when he was 5th in the Pertemps Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2017.

He wouldn't be a forlorn hope tomorrow.
When: 07 Dec 21 20:19
Off 100 I would definitely have been playing but if you run off 105 tomorrow and win, I guess even if you got a 7lb rise that would only put you back on 107 but for a horse that hasn't won for 4 years and perhaps you finally have it down to a winnable mark surely you would want that extra 5lb. I may play for a place at 5/1; she has a 66% place strike rate in the race.

Thanks for your reply.
Lucky Luciano
When: 07 Dec 21 21:19
Evening all,
Thanks Andrew and Alan for all your input re my post on Blairgowrie.
Just got home from work via the pub and watched the race without knowing the result.
Didn't have a bet and at no time did I feel that I might regret that, ran well but winner was much too good 
Like Andrew said maybe they have handicaps in mind.
Regards the amount they paid in 2019 150k euro I guess looking a tad expensive now
When: 07 Dec 21 21:21
Two possible explanations - first is that she made the declaration on Monday not knowing about the 5lb drop. Second is that the horse is considered suited to Hexham and this trip, and this is the last meeting at Hexham until mid March. In fact there are only four meetings within about two hundred miles of her stable between now and Xmas and I can only see one other race he would have qualified for, a 0-105 handicap hurdle at Musselburgh on Dec 20th.
When: 07 Dec 21 21:53
Woo Hoo !!

Leyton Orient 4 – 1 Swindon Town

♫ Four one to the Orient

Four one to the Orient

Touch yer toes – up the O’s Laugh
When: 08 Dec 21 07:25
Thanks for your reply Anorak. I guess there are never that many meetings close when you train so far north. I am going to miss the race as I have a badly arranged dentist appointment!
When: 08 Dec 21 08:41
Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the posts.

One horse i feel can be backed this afternoon is The Gary Moore trained Naturally High (Lingfield 2.00). I saw this one win at Sandown on Saturday but didn’t back it even after saying to one of our group it looks well handicapped. Won nicely and looked the winner before the 2nd (going well). Has won at Lingfield and likes soft (trainers explanation for improved form in his penultimate race).

A half-decent flat horse in France, won a listed race and even ran in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) and Prix Niel (Arc trial). Out of his depth in both but was only 16/1 and 10/1 respectively to win these races. It wasn’t such a poor run in the latter anyway behind a decent Charlie Appleby winner.

I sense Gary has a Cheltenham festival handicap in mind but will need to get his mark up a little. Won off 100 on Saturday and although carrying a 7 lb penalty, the handicapper has raised him 8 lb to 108 (effectively a lb well in).

Has to give a fair bit of weight away to his main rival, but i feel he’s much better than a 108 rating and is still well-handicapped. It looks a very winnable race to me.

Odds of 1.88 are not for everyone  (i backed higher last night although there is a small RF due to a NR) but i thought he would be shorter.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
When: 08 Dec 21 08:53
Going changed to heavy and another NR, now 1.70
When: 08 Dec 21 08:57
before the 2nd last (going well).
When: 08 Dec 21 10:35
Just about to get my betting boots on. Sad
When: 08 Dec 21 12:25
Lay Post

Lingfield 1.00 - Game On For Glory

A 5 year old Fame and Glory Mare trained by Lucy Wadham in Newmarket.

The dam had plenty of runs under both codes with only a sole flat win to show for it.

Form figures of 222-1 look good, albeit all in bumpers and is making her hurdle debut this afternoon. The overall form of these races is mixed although it looks to be reliable and one of those who finished just behind her (Get A Tonic) has improved and won yesterday.

Looking at the breeding it doesn't necesarily scream out 'acts on heavy' that will be the case at Lingfield this afternoon and this course can be very testing in such conditions. She's only raced on good going over 16/17f and will need to be blessed with stamina.

Intially there were 16 runners in the field, but going concerns have resulted in 5 NR's. From the remainder, half of these will struggle to even place but that leave layers with 4 running for them and from decent stables.

Stable is out of form although Lucy does have a decent strike rate at the course.

Whilst her bumper form is good (in the context of this race) conditions will certainly be the oppostite of what she has encountered before and looking at those with a chance of winning, it's not a bad field. Odds of 7/4 are short enough, hence the lay selection.

Lay at 2.80

11:56:07    13:00 Lingfield
Game On For Glory - 2m Nov Hrd
Betfair Bet ID 1:252955492143 | Matched: 08-Dec-21 11:59:08    Lay    2.80    50.00    --    90.00

Good luck all.
When: 08 Dec 21 12:27

I really fancied Naturally High and had a decent price.

I haven't posted a PL lay in a while and this one is risky, but most are at these odds.
When: 08 Dec 21 15:17
Sutton Manor needed the other 5lb off and probably the kid back on taking off another 5. Easy front running ride what can go wrong!

U/L with your lay Andrew, haven't watched that race and luckily wasn't back in time from dentist.
When: 08 Dec 21 16:16
When I saw the horses ears flicking back and forth,like it was enjoying the run/ going, knew u were in trouble.Wink
When: 10 Dec 21 06:51
Good morning

Sometimes you have to go with what you feel and I am laying Hartur Doudairies in the opener at Cheltenham today at 2.6. Having looked through the race, I can't readily rule out any of the runners and Washington has the better form in the book. So with 5 running for me and the McManus connection surely affecting the price, I'll take my chance.

I thought the card was fairly tricky all round but liked the look of Botox Has in the last. Form figures look uninspiring at first glance but down in class and up in trip today make it interesting. 7/1 is not though as thought it would be nearer 10/1.

Good luck
When: 10 Dec 21 11:56
Good afternoon Guys,

A busy couple of days back in the office after working several remotely at home.

So much for my P/L selection on Wednesday, the 7/4f Game On For Glory who won cosily. My reasoning was much weaker than it generally is (basically the heavy going) but she coped with it well. You could see 2 flights out she was going much the better and i knew my fate then. Sods law as i only posted it because my original back selection Naturally High was a NR. Never mind, it just means i need a couple of succesful lays to recoup the loss.

Looking at my next trip to UK, possibly Jan 8th for the Tolworth at Sandown, but only if Nicky sends Consitution Hill (a logical choice to my eyes).


Thanks for the posts and good luck with your selections. I haven't chance to review the RP today (mega busy) but back tomorrow.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
second again
When: 10 Dec 21 12:12
Last VWDLaugh
When: 10 Dec 21 13:08

WD, nice selection, it's always satisfying getting the shorties beaten
When: 11 Dec 21 11:27
Good morning Guys from a very white (snow) West of München.

Some decent cards this afternoon, Cheltenham and Doncaster taking pride of place and even the Hereford meeting isn’t too bad. For once, quality is better than in Ireland and i noticed the last race at Fairyhouse was restricted to 4 year old fillies over 16f, there can’t be many of those in a year.

One horse i backed earlier was the Gary Moore trained Yorksea in the opener at Cheltenham (12.05). Ex-French raced and didn’t achieve very much in 6 runs for Freddie Head winning an Egg and Spoon handicap in the provinces. Ran well on UK hurdles debut finishing 3rd in a Grade 2 on the old course here last month staying on strongly. New course this afternoon and the stiffer test and slightly longer trip should suit. Jamie is riding at Doncaster and looks to have a good chance in a Grade 2, but Niall Houlihan is a able enough substitute. Odds of 4.3 (has been matched higher) are probably about right.

Another one i have backed at the same meeting (2.25) albeit at much shorter odds is Blazing Khal although he’s certainly not a good thing by any means. It appears to concern 3 and i feel the course and trip will suit the favourite more than the other 2. His RPR has improved significantly in the last few runs from 104 to 154. Carries a 5 lb grade 2 penalty and gives this weight away to the field (8lb to one runner) but is improving fast and i think he will win. Whether he’s a Albert Bartlett Novices winner in 2022 is another story, but this afternoon is certainly a stepping stone in that direction.

Looking at lays this afternoon, there are a few i like but one to mention is the favourite Kapga De Lily at Hereford (1.22). Best form in the field (rated 133) and winner of this race last year but giving away a lot of weight. Stays forever, but might like more juice in the ground to show her best.

Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
When: 11 Dec 21 11:30
Thank you ANDREW Happy

When: 11 Dec 21 11:39
Leyton Orient to win @ 1.66 today never even got a mention.Cry
When: 11 Dec 21 11:47


At the odds, i would prefer RB Leipzig, but good luck, hope your team wins.

I will not even mention Bristol City
When: 12 Dec 21 09:48
Good sunny morning Guys,

Blazing Khal (evens) saved the day yesterday (in part) winning cosily after trying to uproot the 2nd last fence, recovering well. Gave away a 5 lb penalty to the field, stayed on really strongly and has to be on a shortlist of possible Albert Bartlett winners next March.

Yorksea was backed down to favourtism (5/2) and ran well enough (2nd) in fact off the final bend he was travelling strongly and i thought he was in with a good chance of winning (1.6 IR). Didn't have pace of the eventual winner who quickened between the last couple of flights and although running on never looked likely the catch him (could be decent). Maybe a step up in trip beckons for the urnner-up.

The suggested lay Kapga De Lily (2/1f) did the opposite of what i expected and won the race for the 2nd year. A poor selection in hindsight, but i didn't think so pre-race.

RB Leipzig duly won (4-1) against an out of sorts Borusia Mönchengladbach (conceded 14 goals in their last 3 games) but this was only a fun response to Happysandwich and i didn't back them. No comment with respect to Leyton Orient. Wink

On to this afternoon, i've only had one bet so far, a lay of Giamrande (12.45 Southwell). I was surprised he was matched at 2.59 earlier (not by me). Ex-French and won a conditions chase (form is ordinary) in the provinces (January 2020) and was transferred to Venetia Williams in October of the same year.

Won a class 4, 16f novice hurdle at Wetherby but was fortunate as the 1/8f favourite fell at the 2nd last when going easily. Recent runs (all hurdles) are not inspiring and even the last run when 11th of 22 in a decent Aintree handicap was off a very low weight (beaten 74L).

Back over fences (his 2nd run) and up in trip this afternoon on a chase course that is not the easiest to jump around. Has been racing off marks in the low 120's and the handicapper has at least relented a little dropping him 5 lb but i don't think it's enough and it's a decent field for the class.

Good luck all and have a nice Sunday.
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