Forums
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 2165 comments are related to the topic:
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 50 of 55  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | ... | 55 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 2,165
By:
The Management
When: 23 Nov 21 16:53
Yes Alan - the one box at Southwell (Fibresand) was a coffin-box (specifically over 6 furlongs) for many years - strangely towards the very end that didn't seem to be the case to the same extent and (although sadly and obviously it's irrelevant now) it still bugs me a bit as to why it evened out a tiny bit right at the end.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 23 Nov 21 17:23
I always thought that Southwell had a build up of the track material along that inside rail, caused by the maintenance done with rollers and harrows, which probably didn't always get right up against the rail. So the horse in stall one was running on deeper, slower ground. Back in the days when I was still betting there (up to about 2006), I'd avoid all low drawn horses and keep a list of those that ran well from stall one for future reference.

As to the change at the end, maybe with the complete replacement of the surface coming up soon, they just stopped working on the track, or at least reduced the amount of time and effort put into maintenance.
By:
The Management
When: 23 Nov 21 18:12
Agree your rationale as to why stall one was such a disadvantage - I never laid/place laid them blind and always checked running style/make up of the race - but for whatever reason the inside surface was deeper and the kickback horrid and you could have profitably just laid them blind in 6f Handicaps.

Regarding the change (right at the end) - what you say is possible. I guess it wasn't a secret but laying them and note-booking the ones that ran well despite the draw was very profitable for many years, specifically (for me) in the 6f Handicaps.

Then I can remember (Sir) Bob Cooper (Love) reading out an incredible (but slightly inaccurate) stat about stall one over 6 furlongs that he said one of the crew had told him. I think he said something like 76 consecutive losers if 8 runners or more (something like that). I don't think it was accurate but I was playing decent sized field Handicaps only and mostly place laying. Either way (as you'd expect from Bob) it wasn't an accurate stat but I was horrified when he shared it!

I cursed him for publicly giving away such valuable information but it was towards the end anyway. Law of the sod and karma for Sir Bob for blabbing - I'm pretty sure that stall one then won the 6f (non-handicap) race that he was previewing when he read out the stat!

There were limited meetings remaining, so not too many more 6f Handicaps with adequate runners for me - but it went to pot (after years of success) for the last handful of meetings from the point where Bob shared the stat.

Let's see what the tapeta brings! GL.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 24 Nov 21 14:32
Good afternoon Guys,

Doitforandrew won at Dundalk earlier, how much did i have on as a fun bet ? Sad

Alan/The Management

Thanks for the posts, interesting.
By:
Trusty
When: 26 Nov 21 18:40
Going to try another lay tomorrow, hopefully not a non-runner again.

Although Nina The Terrier is actually 5lb better of with both Ahorsewithnoname and Elle Est Belle; the latter simply cruised up in the last race before blowing up and will surely make a race of it this time. Nina also seems to have a preference for Good ground and the overnight rain on top of the incredulous decision to water probably means at least SOFT tomorrow. King has also tried to win this race 7 times without success and I don't have a longer history but the last 5 years at least the race has been won by an unpenalised horse. There are four running four me and Rainyday Woman looks over-priced in double figures.

Lay Nina for 3pts Currently 2.82/2.84
Win back Elles Est Belle 1.5pts Currently 2.80/2.84
Win back Rainyday Woman 0.5pts Currently 10.0/13.5 10/1 with the books generally.

GL me and you if you play.Grin
By:
TheAnorak
When: 26 Nov 21 20:00
Trusty,

I've a feeling you've got the wrong end of the going stick about the watering at Newbury. The watering was done last week in order to produce the good to soft, good in places. That's why the going report says 'watered' - past tense. They haven't been watering ground that was already good to soft.

Actually, all they've done is keep the going about the same as it was for the first NH meeting on Nov 4th. Race times today were plenty quick enough to suggest that they haven't overdone it. Yes, the rain will have an effect, but it would have had an effect if they hadn't watered - but then they wouldn't have had so many runners either.
By:
Trusty
When: 27 Nov 21 00:18
Thanks Alan, tbh with the move in the stocks, energy and metal markets today I haven't been paying full attention but I am adamantly opposed to watering especially in Winter months. If we end up with small fields so be-it but plenty of horses act better on good or better ground and rarely get the chance to show their value with CoC's being influenced by the big trainers to unnecessarily water to attract a big name horse or two.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 27 Nov 21 09:33
Good morning Guys from a chilly Linköping, the Aerospace capital of Scandinavia.

Only a short visit this time, arrived last night and back to Germany on Monday morning. Light snow in München when i left, but not here.

Some decent races this afternoon although i have a feeling Newcastle and Bangor will be abandoned due to adverse weather down there, if not, the courses could resemble the Oxfoed/Cambridge boat race.

I only had a single bet yesterday (also my nap in the comps) Nassalam in the novice chase, readers know i like this one and i put it up for his previous win. Won easily, but luck is an understatement (watch the VR) so perhaps i should play the local lottery later.

Looking through the cards earlier i made a few mental notes, but i'm waiting to see what's on/off. Matt will be on soon to inform us.

There is a match at Doncaster 4.28 and i was surprised to see the betting so close, i feel Jacamar should be shorter and is the likely winner, consequently i layed the PN runner Flic Ou Voyou at a tad over evens earlier. He didn't look that good on chase debut LTO and although both are half-decent hurdle handicappers (closely matched on ratings) i think his sole rival will have too much pace for him.

I noticed WPM still has three entries in the Tingle Creek next weekend, Chacun Pour Soi, Energumene and Allaho. If all these run will will eat my socks, ante-post punters beware.

Alan/Trusty

Thank you for the posts, always good to read.

On the topic of ground conditions, there's an old adage that class horses can run/win on any going, i don't subscribe to this althought the likes of Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and Frankel would disagree. Nevertheless as we all know some trainers are averse to running their decent ones on anything without soft in the going description at this time of the year and 'wrapped in cotton wool' is often quoted.

Of course welfare has improved over the years, and rightly so (for horses, not trainers Wink) but go back in time and we used to see 'hard' that basically rode like the M4. If i remember Bath was one such course in the summer months due to no watering system there.

Good luck with your selections Trusty.

More later, but i'm meeting a friend for lunch at 13.00, so not sure how much racing i will see.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 27 Nov 21 10:00
Snowing heavily now in Swindon and settling in my garden - enough already to put racing at risk if they get the same and the radar showsd it heading in their direction.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 27 Nov 21 10:39
Alan,

When i first read your post, i thought you had typed Snowing heavily in Sweden and settling in my garden

A fair bit of travelling to watch your horses, but you could run them at Jägersro or Bro Park. Wink
By:
doorman99
When: 27 Nov 21 12:29
Well done Trusty
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 27 Nov 21 12:29
WD Trusty
Was at Newbury and backed Elle est belle last time remember Skelton said post race he was annoyed with himself for not getting enough work into her, which proved to be the case as would have won anyway today
Glad NTT got up apparently OK
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 28 Nov 21 10:08
Good chilly morning Guys (-2c)

It appears the weather will play a major part in racing this afternoon with Carlisle off and an inspection at Leicester at 10.30. Fairyhouse looks safe and there is a decent group card at Auteuil although no GB/Irish interest that i could see.

I plan to go to one of Linköpings several sportsbars and watch Bristol City in the midday kick off if they show it. I'm only interested in backing one at Fairyhouse anyway  to pay for a decent lunch and a couple of drinks, not Honeysuckle, but Fil Dor in the 12.35. Odds-on are not for everyone, but he looked a decent juvenile when winning very impressively LTO. May not have beaten much that day, but he couldn't have won any easier and looked above average.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Trusty

WD on your selections, hope you made a nice few bob.

My lunch date yesterday turned into all afternoon so i didn't see any ITV racing at all and my only bet was in the match race at Doncaster (i watched the VR). When Jacamar took the lead 3 out and was travelling better than his his sole rival i would have expected him to pull away, but he was disappointing and didn't find anything at all, to her credit Bryony got the eventual winner back up.

Alan

Are you attending Sandown next weekend ?
By:
happysandwich
When: 28 Nov 21 12:50
Well done Andrew - bon appetite

I only won a beef-burger and it looked like I was going to be doing the washing up with 50yds to go.Laugh

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Fil Dor
1.60
£50.00
£30.12
Ref: 251943516101 Matched: 12:33 28-Nov-21
By:
TheAnorak
When: 28 Nov 21 14:18
Andrew,

Getting there presents a problem:

3 December – 6 December 2021 – full weekend closure between junctions 6 and 8/9

The M4 will be closed in both directions over the weekend of 3 December – 6 December 2021 between Junctions 6 (Slough-Windsor) and 8/9 (Maidenhead). The closure will start after 8pm Friday 3 December and the motorway will reopen by 6am on Monday 6 December.

I could use a longer route via the M3 or M40, but with the first race at 12:05, that would mean leaving home before I've woken up!
By:
happysandwich
When: 28 Nov 21 14:34
^
Alan,

Have your breakfast before you go to bed, it’s a time saver.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 28 Nov 21 19:39
“Have your breakfast before you go to bed, it’s a time saver” Laugh
And go to bed in your clothes
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 28 Nov 21 21:16
Happysandwich,

The result was never in doubt. Laugh

Seriously, i always thought he was going to win on the run-in, but he was more workmanlike than anything else and i expected better to be honest. The field didn't look much, not to grade 3 standard at least, but this is often the case in these typical Irish juvenile events and the front two pulled away. I was surprised at the BSP (1.77 ?) much better than i envisaged this morning and higher than i backed it at.

Alan

OK i understand. I don't have such travelling issues arriving in Gatwick but i do need to take a PCR test and isolate before the result (thank you Boris) so i will try to get it done on arrival.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 28 Nov 21 21:18
Forgot to mention, WD on the bet Happysandwich Happy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 29 Nov 21 13:27
Good afternoon Guys from a dismal and snowy München.

Arrived back earlier after a short weekend in Linköping (Lucky Luciano, no i didn't wash the windows this time Wink).

The new covid variant appears to be creating a stir here, normally on arrival from Sweden i pass through the 'Schengen' area of immigration without stopping but it was different this morning. Immigration officers were actually waiting as we came off the passenger air bridge and they were checking everyone, presumably as we were coming from Schiphol (transit). I was OK, i have EU residency and i'm dual vaccinated anyway, but the English speaking couple in front of me were being asked a lot of questions. I didn't hang around to find out what happened to them, but i guess they got thruogh in the end.

This new variant is probably going to create more issues for travellers and i'm off to UK on Thursday to meet up with a few posters for the Tingle Creek weekend, or at least i think i will be (new controls in UK).I'm working remote, so part of this afternoon will be trying to find where i can get an approved PCR test close to Gatwick and a quick result as i have to self isolate before it.

If this is all a test from God he's starting to try my patience. Laugh

On to racing, i only flipped through the cards earlier but i thought the favourite Famous Bridge was a reasonable lay selection in Ayr 1.40. Ran well enough in 2nd place LTO (may have been 3rd if one hadn't RO). Only raced on heavy/soft and on right handed tracks. This looks a decent field for the class and is certainly no gimme. I layed at 2.78 and he's only a tad higher now, but is short enough in the betting in my opinion.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
By:
second again
When: 29 Nov 21 13:50
Unlucky Andrew the 2nd did not jump the last well and it cost it the race(I had backed the 2nd earlierSad).
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 29 Nov 21 13:54
Second Again

I thought the eventual runner-up was going to stay on and win (1.11 IR) but as you say a less than fluent leap at the last probably cost it.

I should have stayed in the city instead of going home. Laugh
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Nov 21 14:13
I was going to Lay it to win a tenner @ 4.60 but Mrs H convinced me to leave the race alone and get just as much excitement watching it.
She was right and saved me £36.

Where do fellers like us find girls like her? Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 29 Nov 21 14:15
Happysandwich

You could have let me know Laugh
By:
happysandwich
When: 29 Nov 21 14:26
^
SHE could have let you know Laugh
By:
doorman99
When: 29 Nov 21 19:36
Andrew, please keep us informed on the Gatwick PCR rigmarole and the results turnaround timeframe, very useful info for some of us. Ta.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 29 Nov 21 20:45
Doorman99,

Sure, will do.

I was looking into it in more detail this afternoon. Basically it's similar to my last visit in October except on this occasion i have to isolate after arrival until a negative PCR test result (i arrive in Gatwick at 10.45). I found a test centre in Victoria that claim to send a result by 23.59 the same day in some cases although under 24 hours is the norm (cost £69). Travelling to the test centre is obviously permitted.

Where i work (German DLR) i can go to the office but i have to self-test with HR first, so i could ask them to give me a kit i can use on Thursday before i fly. Of course it's not valid in UK but at least it gives me the security of knowing i'm OK on the day. If i failed the PCR it's 10 days isolation over there ....... and no Tingle Creek. Wink
By:
doorman99
When: 30 Nov 21 20:23
Thats excellent news Andrew, much faster turnaround than I was expecting, very pleasing, better get the holiday brochures out again.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 01 Dec 21 09:49
Good sunny morning Guys,

Doorman99

The link below is the company i will use for a PCR test tomorrow although i will go to Reigate, not Victoria now (same cost £69). I have an appointment at lunchtime so assuming my flight is not significantly delayed i should be OK.

I can post when the actual result is received. The same day would be great, but mid-morning the following day will at least allow me to go to Sandown. As usual a PLF (passenger locator form) has to be filled in prior to departure.

https://dam-health.com/
By:
TheAnorak
When: 01 Dec 21 20:45
Some of you may remember posts in July about trying to buy a horse at the Newmarket Sales - Cochise was one specifically mentioned and his £42k price tag (my limit for him was £16k) looks money thrown away on what he's done since.

There were two other horses that we bid for, with different ideas for them, but essentially they would have raced on the flat. One ended up in Ireland where it's run twice in maiden hurdles and once at Dundalk - he's called Desert Friend and was sold from the Simcock stable. The other went to the small Cotswold NH stable of David Jeffreys - he's called Al Muffrih, a one time useful performer for Haggas, but entered for the sale from Stuart Williams yard. My trainer spoke to Williams and was warned off Al Muffrih, as highly temperamental and very difficult to train, with only two speeds on the gallops, zero Mph or 100 Mph. He did concede that a move away from Newmarket might help, but his comments meant we only bid to £10k and he sold for £13k.

Now, in a development you couldn't have dreamed up, Al Muffrih and Desert Friend will meet in a 2m 1f maiden hurdle at, of all places, Sedgefield! It's the first race there on Friday and it will be fascinating to see whether Al Muffrih is a reformed character.
By:
second again
When: 03 Dec 21 13:26
I hope any of you who are meeting up at Sandown tomorrow enjoy it and have a winning day.Cool
By:
gazza66
When: 03 Dec 21 15:13
TheAnorak, if going by today’s result it appears you were lucky that your price limits were beaten for Al Muffrih and Desert Friend beaten 21 lengths and 38 1/4 lengths respectively.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 03 Dec 21 20:31
Good evening Guys,

Thank you for the posts.

I finally received a negative PCR result earlier today, a little under 24 hours the test centre stipulated, albeit too late for me to meet up at Sandown this afternoon. They also stated that in some cases you can receive a result the same day, but i guess you need an early appointment (mine was 12.50 yesterday and the email arrived 12.11). The process was easy enough, but hanging around in a hotel room waiting for an email is frustrating.

I'm not sure how much checking is actually done with respect to self-isolation (very little probably) but i left my hotel before 12.11 as i wanted to get into Crawley before the 13.15 race (i'm in a Gatwick airport hotel). It was a good move as the favourite who i particularly wanted to back romped in although it was expected at 4/9. It's nice to win with 'cash in hand' in a Korals shop Happy

I had a self-test before flying over yesterday so i knew i was negative anyway, we are used to doing this in Germany, i'm not allowed into the office without one.

The UK process is faulted anyway, i could have been carrying covid on a 90 minute flight with 150 odd passengers from München, passing through a couple of major airports and travelling on public transportation to a hotel but not having to test for 2 days. Surely it's better to prove a negative test before being allowed to board a flight, as i had to when returning from Italy after the England v Ukraine in the Summer. Never mind, all done now and at least i can go to Sandown for the Tingle Creek meeting tomorrow.

Alan

What a coincidence and as mentioned you couldn't have dreamt it up. It doesn't look as though Al Muffrih is a reformed character on this afternoons evidence, at least not yet, so as Gazza intimated you could have been lucky not getting involved.

When is Atheeb running again ?.

Second Again

Thanks. A few of us are meeting up tomorrow although there will be one absentee at least. It looks a decent card, a pity Shishkin isn't running (maybe not at Kempton later this month either) but the main event is still a very good field. I noticed PN has a runner partly owned by the Andy Stewart family in the opener, a race named after the illustrious owner who died less than 3 months ago.

I may post some muses in the morning after a decent cooked breakfast.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.
By:
Davros
When: 03 Dec 21 21:41
"TheAnorak, if going by today’s result it appears you were lucky that your price limits were beaten for Al Muffrih and Desert Friend beaten 21 lengths and 38 1/4 lengths respectively."

Gazza - I imagine it's like avoiding a losing bet because it's shorter than your tissue price - but on steroids and more public.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 04 Dec 21 08:28
Difference is that I wouldn't have been running either of those horses over hurdles, they would have been kept to the flat. The one I did buy, Atheeb, probably won't run again until the turf flat season. I have a very specific race in mind for him, but it's a long way off.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 04 Dec 21 08:50
Desert Friend  (IRE) 11/2
Henry Brooke
Denis Gerard Hogan
5    114    –    37    –    –   
Led, headed and prominent 3rd, weakened quickly on extended run to last (jockey said gelding stopped quickly; vet said gelding was displaying signs of heat stress) (op 17/2 tchd 5/1 and tchd 10/1)

The north east in December, that's global warming for ya
By:
TheAnorak
When: 04 Dec 21 09:07
Moving on to Sandown today, some jockey info for anybody planning to take the short price about Chacun Pour Soi. Patrick Mullins has never ridden at Sandown before - in fact all his rides this side of the Irish Sea have been at Aintree and Cheltenham.

Those visits have produced 8 winners from 96 rides, and the majority of those eight have been against other amateurs or in cross country races at Cheltenham. In his entire career in Ireland, he's ridden in just 13 chases over todays trip. Is that profile you want for an odds on shot in a Grade 1 chase?
By:
second again
When: 04 Dec 21 09:35
I agree TheAnorak, plus beaten the only time he has ran in England.My wallet will be lighter if he wins.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 04 Dec 21 10:13
Good morning Guys,

Thanks for the posts.

Alan

Valid points and i actually looked through the form in detail last night. I didn't pick up on his UK rides, but i did notice he has never ridden the horse.

Best in the race, but we know this is not always a given. I think the bet is 2TBP on Nube Negra at around the same odds, but no big bets at Sandown for me this afternoon, more of a day out. I would have been a backer of Shishkin.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 04 Dec 21 10:15
Enjoy your day All, hope the weather Gods smile on you. Happy
Page 50 of 55  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | ... | 55 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com