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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
TheAnorak
When: 12 Nov 21 20:03
Second again - somebody knew the winner was going to improve. He'd been dropped 6lbs for his last two runs - taken us two years to go down the same amount! But no complaints, picked up some prize money and he's now earned just over £15k this year, and you could win two or three races and not collect that much, as well as being put up in the handicap for winning.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 12 Nov 21 20:46
Have to admire Love Dreams consistency countered by the exasperation of finishing second once again.
Adam Kirby rode a good race, like a bullet whipping the hood off and getting a blinding start.
Apologies for the pun Cry
By:
TheAnorak
When: 13 Nov 21 09:04
Kirby is ideal for us, as he takes a ride for our small stable in a class 5 just as seriously as one for his main yard in a big race. Post race yesterday, he said he'd love to keep the ride, but suggested we consider using a 5lb claimer to get an edge, as the horse is a straightforward ride.

And we've done that in the past, particularly with Marco Ghiani, but 5lb claimers as good as him aren't common. As you mention Lucky, that ability to time the start is a key with this horse and the senior jockeys simply do that better.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Nov 21 09:38
Good morning Guys,

Last full day in my adopted home of Linköping, back to München tomorrow (KLM permitting) for a few weeks although i will certain return before Christmas. A relaxing weekend, stayed in Stockholm Friday night and Saturday daytime, a long time since i walked around the capital city.

The only ITV race i watched on Saturday was the novice chase with Third Time Lucki who didn't win as easily as i expected, but did it nevertheless. He wasn't as fluent as over CD LTO but is probably the best novice chaser in UK to date, albeit very early days of course.

The Skeltons are hitting form and i noticed Nube Negra won at Cheltenham yesterday and Dan talking of a Tingle Creek entry. With Willie sending over Chacun Pour Soi (i can't see Energumene running) it's looking a decent race and i'm looking forward to it (meeting up with several forum posters). Tingle Creek aside it will probably be a decent card anyway, so i may even do the 2 days.

Looking forward, the Betfair chase this Saturday and i have already layed the favourite A Plus Tard currently trading at 3.45 that i feel is far too short even though he is a Gold Cup runner-up. More about this race on the day.

On to this afternon, i didn't really fancy anything, but i have layed a hurdle debutant at Leicester (3.00) in the David Pipe trained Macha albeit via a certain amount of intuition as opposed to form. The trainer actually runs a couple and i would have thought the other was maybe the better although she's giving away a 6 lb winner penalty. His strike rate with hurdle debut runners is not that good. Angels Landing ran to a reasonable level LTO and is one of the likely winners.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Alan

Unlucky with Love Dreams on Friday, but maybe i put the mockers on it as it's the first time i've ever backed one of your runners. It was only a fun 25 win anyway because i thought he really had a decent chance and odds of 6.50 on here were better than i expected. To reiterate Lucky Lucinanos comments he's certainly consistent and deserves to win a race soon, but 15K prize money is certainly paying his way.

Have you considered running him at Wolverhamton again ?

Lucky

Must be cheaper to hire a window cleaner than keep going back yourself

Laugh

I know you were joking and washing my apartment windows is not the reason for returning to Linköping, there is a finanical reason (German tax relief). Apart from that i love it here and spent well over 21 years actually working at the Saab aerospace facility. It's a very comfortable city to live in, nice people and everyone speaks English. If there is a negative, the winters can be long, but i've got used to them and what Swedes call 'real' winter (-10c, virgin snow, Blue sky, sunny, frost in the trees etc) is really beautiuful.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 15 Nov 21 10:13
Morning Andrew,

Although LD won at Wolverhampton, jockey, trainer and owner all felt he didn't handle the sharp bends well, so we've not been keen to return. In addition, prize money for a 0-80 (which is what he'll have to run in next as he's bound to be raised for the last run) is £9,700 at Wolves and £11,200 at Kempton. That might not matter to Godolphin, but it matters to me!

His planned next run is on Dec 15th at Kempton.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Nov 21 12:30
Afternoon Guys,

Just checked odds of my suggested lay selection Macha earlier this morning, currently 6.8, so not lost one leg, but two it appears. Matched below 3 initially (for buttons) albeit not by me.


Alan,

Thanks for the update, i will keep an eye open on race day, hope the handicapper gives you some leeway. Good luck.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Nov 21 12:15
Good afternoon Guys,

A short post, basically a suggested lay of Fontaine Collonges (12.30 Warwick) currently trading around 2.36.

Winner of a couple of bumpers (one in France) and a novice hurdle at Leicester although the latter was essentially a 3 horse race (5/6f) where she was receiving 13 lb and won by a neck. Only the sole run over the larger obstacles finishing 4th albeit last of a group where the remainder were never in it and finished well strung out. Wetherby is a world away from Warwick in terms of track configuration and tricky for a novice chaser (although with respect to the latter point all are in the same boat of course).

Up in trip by almost 5f compared to LTO and she didn’t run well over 17f on this course last year although to be fair it was a decent race.

I layed at 2.34 earlier as i thought she was short enough where more or less any of the 7 in the field could win.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all.
By:
Mr_Spreadsheet
When: 17 Nov 21 12:21
Thanks Andrew and good luck!
By:
BESTMATE44
When: 17 Nov 21 12:38
Unlucky Andrew,thought you had it won!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Nov 21 12:40
Thanks Guys,

Sad

I didn't see the race, only the result. I will watch the VR tonight and hope for a different finishing order. Laugh
By:
TheAnorak
When: 19 Nov 21 08:15
Morning All,

A big couple of days ahead for N Henderson, whose usual November rush of winners has yet to arrive this year. Is that all down to the weather, or is the yard continuing the slow decline that began with the retirement of Corky Brown. I was at Newbury earlier this month, a meeting often dominated by Henderson - he had 4 runners that produced two seconds (one at 8/15), a refused to race and a 9th in the bumper. The big Cheltenham meeting went by with just four Henderson runners and no winners.

The total for this month so far is 7 winners, compared to November scores of 22,17,18,19 in the four previous years. Five runners at Ascot today, four of which are currently priced at 4/1 or less. Four runners across three meetings tomorrow. Will you be a layer or a backer?
By:
second again
When: 19 Nov 21 09:23
I have not looked at tomorrows runners yet,today I think Captain Morgs in the 2.40 Ascot has every chance and will be a win bet.I have thought that Hendersons eye problems must be a negative for training horses.Any stable would miss someone as experienced as Corky Brown.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 19 Nov 21 12:41
Good afternoon Guys,

Looks a decent enough card at Ascot this afternoon, albeit a few small fields, and i doubt it’s as cut and dried as the betting odds may suggest.

If there is a bet or two, i think Torn And Frayed will make all the running to win the 12.55 and later a lay of the likely favourite Captain Morgs in the 2.40 could both pay out. Odds of 6/4 are skinny, it looks a tricky handicap to me, he was receiving 15 lb when 3rd LTO and is dropping in trip considerably. Did have decent form as a 4 year old but hasn’t reproduced it since.

Some of you may have read/seen the covid situation in Bavaria is worsening, so much so that new measures were implemented Monday and yesterday. Part of the new rules mean those non-vaccinated (i am) will not be allowed to use public transportation, enter public facilities (including brothels oddly enough) nor to go to work without a negative test. At the DLR (where i am) i will have to work remote (home) on alternate days from next Monday and i’ve been informed i can take as much free time as is practical for the project, or even work in Sweden. I’m currently looking for office space at major race tracks in UK. Laugh

Seriously, as a result of the new measures, i may be going to Sandown on both days on Tingle Creek weekend, but certainly the Saturday. A 4 day weekend in London is appealing.

Alan/Second Again

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated.

S-A, good luck (one of us will be celebrating Wink)

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
By:
PHS
When: 19 Nov 21 16:37

Nov 19, 2021 -- 8:15AM, TheAnorak wrote:


Morning All,A big couple of days ahead for N Henderson, whose usual November rush of winners has yet to arrive this year. Is that all down to the weather, or is the yard continuing the slow decline that began with the retirement of Corky Brown. I was at Newbury earlier this month, a meeting often dominated by Henderson - he had 4 runners that produced two seconds (one at 8/15), a refused to race and a 9th in the bumper. The big Cheltenham meeting went by with just four Henderson runners and no winners. The total for this month so far is 7 winners, compared to November scores of 22,17,18,19 in the four previous years. Five runners at Ascot today, four of which are currently priced at 4/1 or less. Four runners across three meetings tomorrow. Will you be a layer or a backer?


2 winners; couldn't make it upMischief

By:
The Management
When: 19 Nov 21 17:05
Stats, patterns and trends are there to be defied! - It's the Law of the Sod!

But for lovers of stats/patterns/trends, I just posted my interesting one for yesterday on the snooker forum  - When Higgins played Ding yesterday and won the first frame (odds approx 4/5) it was the 12th consecutive time that he had won the first frame when meeting Ding.

For Andrew, I have gone with the Bavarian connection for todays Interesting Stat/pattern/trend:

Augsburg versus Bayern Munich (19:30 tonight). There has been a First Half Goal in 52 of Bayerns last 54 league games (That's 96.3% and Current odds for Over 0.5 First Half Goals tonight is 1.22). Which seems even more generous when you consider that Augsburg have conceded within 15 minutes in 6 of their 11 league games so far and also that there has been a goal within 17 minutes in 8 of Bayerns 11 games so far.

If you believe in the forum curse or just think stats/patterns/trends are there to be defied, Under 0.5 First Half Goals is available at about 9/2.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Nov 21 10:54
Good morning Guys,

I’m surprised i’m allowed to post today after the couple of selections i put up yesterday, a lay and a back, i should have reversed the bets. I mentioned Torn And Frayed would make all the running to win and if he hadn’t jump to the left at virtually every fence i would have been correct. To be fair the winner copied him in playing follow the leader (novice chasers often do) albeit not to the same extent. I thought Torn And Frayed would probably win jumping the last (in front) but Harry Skelton did the right thing by going for the rail, he knew he would have the space. A good race on the run-in but the winner stayed on better to win by 3/4L.

As for the lay of Captain Morgs, i simply got it wrong. Based on form alone he was short enough at 7/4f and the only positive i thought was his weight and considering the 12 lb less he was carrying than the runner-up it was enough (won by 3/4L). Never mind, when you fall off a bike etc.

A few decent cards this afternoon with the Betfair Chase taking pride of place, there’s also a couple of decent novice chasers running on both sides of the Irish Sea in Bob Olinger (Gowran 12.00) and Bravemansgame (Haydock 1.50). Both may win (albeit at restricted odds) but it will be interesting to see how they run without betting.

Last Monday i posted that A Plus Tard was short enough in the betting for the Betfair chase (Haydock 3.00) and a few NR’s (including one earlier in Next Destination) that have reduced his odds even further. Clearly the form horse in the field and a rightful favourite, but will a ‘less than testing’ Haydock first time out play to his strengths. He runs well enough fresh, but in 3 November season debuts he hasn’t won and i also feel he may prefer a little more juice in the ground. Will he be 100% today ? I’m actually thinking to put this one up as a P/L selection later, but it’s a risky one. Irrespective of this i’ve already layed him at 2.28.

Backers of Defi Du Seuil (Ascot 2.05) will be hoping he can regain his 2019/2020 form (would be short here if so) but you need a lot of faith even after a wind operation. Up in trip and i was a layer at 3.85 earlier.

Readers of this thread know my friend Brigust1 (Laurie Williamson) who was groom for the great Brigadier Gerard and often posts here (and letters to the RP) specially when it comes to ratings and comparison with Frankel, understandable given his connection with the horse. He’s beeen wiling his time writing a book, now published and available via the link below for those that are interested (i’m not on commission Laugh). Hope it sells well Laurie.

www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk.

PHS/The Management

Thanks for the posts and WD with the Augsburg v Bayern München game (surprising result).

Second Again

WD with the win yesterday, hope you made plenty (some of it mine Wink).

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Nov 21 11:07
www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk
By:
Trusty
When: 20 Nov 21 11:16
Thanks for posting Andrew and GL.

I am going to risk a lay of Might I in the first at around 1.95. Been tried in higher class before and wasn't successful and although impressive in lower grade all the others seem to have a chance to me and thus market looks wrong.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 20 Nov 21 12:09
Thanks Trusty. I noticed yours is a NR one of quite a few this afternoon.

Bob Olinger backers may have a scare or two over the fences, but he won well enough in the end.
By:
second again
When: 20 Nov 21 12:27
Thanks Andrew,the 2nd must have traded very short,I am not a big backer but enjoy the game.I hope you get it back soon.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 20 Nov 21 13:40
Afternoon Andrew,
Times at Haydock seem to indicate to me the going is not much worse than good (hurdle course has now been changed to good) 12.40 chase over 3m.4f race ran just outside RP standard time of 7.23 (according to time I took off the tv 7.27 been waiting for confirmation but not on RP site yet)
I've picked one out in the hardest race today 2.25 Haydock in Riggs. Dan Skelton has stated this is the plan, Harry gone up from Ascot (could have rode there) and has nothing to carry only 10.4lb perfect age and unexposed. Against that he is probably not the only one with similar profile !
Good luck and thanks for the write up
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 21 Nov 21 11:47
Good afternoon Guys from a very sunny West of München.

The often used greeting above will be a thing of the past soon (in part at least) as the owner of my rental apartment is returning in January so i will be moving. A pity as it's in a lovely area with a large lake just outside the city and i like it here. 5 minutes walk to the S-Bahn, a oouple more to the lake and hotel where i often have a drink and watch the wind surfers/boats.

It's a small, very touristy area and in summertime it appears half of München decends on it, but with distant views of the Alps and an Italian flavour it's hardly surprising. in 2019 i was living in Pasing (a nice part of München) before moving here and i looked at an apartment close to that area yesterday, so it looks like back to the city life for me soon.

The covid situation in parts of Europe is worsening specially in Germany and Austria, in fact the latter is going to introduce en-masse mandatory vaccination next year. Not so here (at least not yet) and i have my doubts it would be accepted (although it will be for healthcare workers) but new stringent measures were implemented by the Bavarian state on Monday and Thursday, as did my workplace the German DLR. It's not all bad, i will be working remote from home on alternate days for the next few weeks at least so more RP/ITV racing time. Wink

On to racing yesterday, i got Defi De Seuil right (i sense he's fallen out of love with the game and is best avoided) but conversely i must have had a brain fog moment by suggesting the favourite A Plus Tard was a lay in the Betfair chase (albeit risky). Was there a more easier and impressive winner all afternoon. Of course with 3 main rivals in a small field failing to complete the course his task was made much easier, but he travelled so well and had the race sewn up before the 4th last, and in a fast time. Simply different class.

We did see another top class winner at Haydock, this time a novice, Bravemansgame who was surprisingly available at 4/5 on here in the morning. Whilst the winning distance was nowhere near the chasm A Plus Tard won by, the manner of his win was very impressive, Harry never moved on him and i could have ridden it.

In my opinion he's the best novice seen so far this season and it will take a good one to beat him at Kempton next time out. I've never been to the Boxing day meeting and although it's very unlikely i will go this year, it's tempting although i would have to bribe by daughter with a trip to Oxford street. Laugh

Over at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) this morning i noticed that Golden Sixty took his record to 18/19 (15 on the spin) in the Group 2 Jockey Club Mile, what is more remarkable is he often wins in a photo, in fact 3 of his last 4 by a head or short head. Will we see him at Royal Ascot next summer ? I doubt it, he's only ever raced at Sha Tin and why travel when you can mop up high value Group races at home (winner of approaching 8 million GBP now).

I looked through the cards earlier that are typical of those on a Sunday afternoon although a few of the races look interesting including the Grade 3 at Navan.

There wasn't anything that really jumped off the page, but i thought a runner at Uttoxeter (1.10) was lay material in Bootlegger (currently 2.88). Consistent, but not really progressing. Has form on sharp tracks but his last couple of wins were at Doncaster and off marks of 119 and 120. On 126 this afternoon and he's run to similar levels in his previous 4 races without getting his head in front. A small field of 6 where all (bar one) are closely matched. I layed earlier at 2.96.

I've hit a lull in my lay selections since i returned from Sweden on Tuesday, perhaps i should have stayed and simply enjoyed the Glögg (Mulled Wine). Back there again next Friday, but returning early Monday morning, so a short trip.

Mind you laying at such short odds is obviously going to throw up winners, it's an accepted part of the game. As for the P/L on this thread i'm going to scroll back and update it, i used to post it after each applicable race but it got left behind and will take a little time to type it out. Never mind, home office tomorrow. Wink. I'm fairly sure there will be in small profit as i was on a roll with P/L selections after a poor start.

I posted a link to Brigust1 new book about Brigadier Gerard yesterday, albeit incorrectly first (full stop at the end). I corrected it, but here it is again, maybe a Christmas present to yourself.

www.brigadiergerardandme.co.uk

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Second Again/Lucky

Thank you for the posts.
By:
Lampus
When: 21 Nov 21 13:19
Well  done ANDREW   HappyHappy
By:
second again
When: 21 Nov 21 13:52
A good lay,well beaten.
By:
second again
When: 21 Nov 21 13:52
A good lay,well beaten.
By:
PHS
When: 21 Nov 21 16:56
Andrew,
Your grammar is usually exemplary, but "Was there a more easier and impressive winner all afternoon" will take me a while to recover from!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 22 Nov 21 07:50
Good morning Guys,

Working remotely from home thanks to Angela Merkel, not something i particularly enjoy although it does have its advantages of course.

Only 31 runners at Kempton, but it's not a bad card actually and at least no fields with long odds-on favourites. WPM doesn't send many to the track and i was hoping his mare My Sister Sarah would be a better price in the listed Race (1.60 is short enough). The other meetings are typical of a Monday with a few interesting races.

I looked through the cards earlier and thought Sebastopol (Kempton 1.15) was layable at odds around 2.20. If there is a case of forever the bridesmaid never the bride, this one certainly fits the bill with a run of 7 runner-up finishes on the spin. Not ungenuine by any means, just not good enough on the day. Connections apppear to be undecided what his best trip is, he's tried several between 16f and 25.5f recently.

Tends to jump to the left that could be a negative on this course. Ran well enough to finish just under 5L behind Third Time Lucki LTO, but the winner won cosily. Only 3 runners, but a decent race where any of thm could win although i don't think Sebastopol will.

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.

Lampus/Second Again

Thank you. Layers never really had a worry and i was very surprised at the 6/5f SP. Always nice to get a shortie beaten.

PHS

Agree on the latter part and i hold my hands up.

Was there an easier, more impressive winner .............. Wink
By:
Trusty
When: 22 Nov 21 14:24
You got a 1.01 beat AIS! I left an IR lay but not as low as that :-(
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 22 Nov 21 14:57
Trusty

Never in doubt Laugh

Seriously, i got lucky with the last fence fall, otherwise he would have won of course. We need a little luck in betting and it was on my side today. Getting these shorties beaten is a bonus, as was 10/11 on My Sister Sarah.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 22 Nov 21 15:01
Ya jammy git!!LaughLaugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 22 Nov 21 15:15
Sofiakenny

It was all planned Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 23 Nov 21 13:11
Good afternoon Guys,

Another day working remotely from home and it could be all week.

Very ordinary cards today but i did notice a John Gosden/Goldophin, well bred newcomer named Aerospace running at Chelmsford this evening. No i don't own it and considering it cost 300,000 gns at the Tattersall Decemer Sales this is hardly surprising. If it had been double fiugure odds (no chance) i would have had a fun bet, but i will watch the race anyway.

A runner i thought could be lay material is the short priced favorite Aire Valley Lad (Sedgefield 2.45). Lighty raced, winner of a bumper and hurdle, but only 3 runs over the larger obstacles. Finished 3rd of 7 LTO but dissect the form, only 4 finished (beaten over 12L) and he was receiving 24 lb and 23 lb respectively from those in front.

Has run over the course but was well beaten. The fences are easy here and this may assist lack of chase experience by the others. Only a small field of 5, forget the outsider and it looks a tricky handicap. Up in trip to 19.5f and his run at Hexham over 20f earlier in the year didn't show him in a good light, albeit in a better race. I've layed him at 2.40 and it looks as though the odds haven't moved in either direction all morning.

Stable form is a negative for layers, but i thought he was very short at 5/4.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.
By:
Lampus
When: 23 Nov 21 13:28
Thank you ANDREW Happy
By:
paulmul
When: 23 Nov 21 14:53
Nice one Andrew
By:
TheAnorak
When: 23 Nov 21 14:53
Aerospace has been diverted to Wolverhampton!

It's a race that highlights how difficult it is to win a simple novice stakes worth less than £4k to the winner. Two Gosden runners, two for Charlie Appleby, two for Andrew Balding, two for Mark Johnston and one from William Haggas. At least a million quids worth of potential racing on the AW, but still there are people who complain that it's all rubbish.
By:
The Management
When: 23 Nov 21 16:36
Harley tried to launch him at the furlong pole - but he didn't take off!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 23 Nov 21 16:37
Lampus/Paulmul

Thank you.

Aire Valley Lad was well backed (10/11f) but for what reason is mindboggling although he looked the likely winner 3 fences out. The eventual winner deserves credit though, staying on strongly although i suspect the favourite was also tiring.

It's nice to get shorties beaten, more so when they are odds-on.

Alan

Due to fog at Stansted airport Wink

I don't know why i mentioned Chelmsford, i must have had last nights head on.

Just seen the result, JG won with the stablemate
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 23 Nov 21 16:39
The Management

Exceeded MTOW (maximum take off weight) Wink
By:
The Management
When: 23 Nov 21 16:39
Aerospace - they will have to try a New Approach if they want to Sea The Stars.

I'll get me coat!
By:
TheAnorak
When: 23 Nov 21 16:45
An object lesson in why being drawn in stall one is rarely beneficial at Wolverhampton, at least in a field of that size. Ideal for a proven front runner of course, but a trap for anything that doesn't lead.
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